FXUS61 KALY 110241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
941 PM EST WED MAR 10 2004

.UPDATE...

UPDATE FORTHCOMING TO ADJUST TEMPS/CLOUDS BASED ON OBS/SAT TRENDS. 
NO OTHER CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

.DISCUSSION...THE WEATHER PICTURE LOOKS A LITTLER "CLEARER" TO US 
THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS. SATELLITE PICTURES 
SHOWS THE LATEST IN THE SERIES OF OCEAN STORMS...EAST OF DELMARVA 
THAT IS ONCE AGAIN SLATED TO COMPLETELY MISS OUR REGION. IMPRESSIVE 
CYCLOGENESIS IS EVIDENT...BUT IT WILL NOT OUR PROBLEM. HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER THE REGION BRINGING A FAIRLY NICE MARCH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WIND.

MEANWHILE...OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...A POTENT CLIPPER...IS SEEN 
RACING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO 
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ALL MODELS GIVE US 
A SHOT OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING FAST 
(CLIPPER) AND WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO LOAD UP ON ANY GOOD ATLANTIC OR 
GULF MOISTURE...AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LOW AND AT WORST...LOOKING AT 
ANOTHER NUISANCE SNOW EVENT STARTING IN EARNEST ABOUT THE TIME OF 
THE MORNING DRIVE ON FRIDAY. A SHOT OF CHILLY AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY 
WINDS WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WITH A 
LIMITING BLOCK UPSTREAM IN THE ATLANTIC...AND A NEARLY VERNALLY 
STRONG MARCH SUN...THE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE QUITE NICELY 
ON SATURDAY. 

.EXTENDED...THE GFS APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRENGTHENING 
RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE NEXT STORM 
LOOKS TO PULL WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS SCENARIO MAKES SENSE 
CONSIDERING A PERSISTENT +NAO PATTERN. HOWEVER...COMPROMISED WITH 
SURROUNDING OFFICES ON TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. 

WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAVS/MET AND EVEN FWC NOS THROUGHOUT. 

.AVIATION...VFR CNDTNS SHLD PREVAIL FOR MCH OF THE PD THRU 18Z THU. 
P6SM SCT035 THRU 00Z THEN P6SM SKC CNDTNS...XCPT FOR KPOU WHERE P6SM 
BKN250 CNDTNS WL PREVAIL WITH BKN035 TIL 22Z. WINDS LIGHT AND VRBL 
AT KGFL...N AT 5KTS AT KALB AND N-NE ABOUT 10KTS AT KPOU.

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOWS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST LCTNS 
...EXCLUDING HIKN6 AND RVRN6 WHERE SLOW RISES CONT...WITH DAYTIME 
TEMPS IN THE MID 40S DIPPING INTO THE 20S AT NIGHT. SOME MELTING TO 
OCCUR DURG THE DAY BUT NOT ENOF TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. THE NEXT 
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME TUESDAY OR TUESDAY 
NIGHT...AND IT LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKE LIQUID RAIN. SOME ICE STL 
REMAINS IN THE CRESCENT POOL ON THE MOHAWK BUT NOT CAUSING PRBLMS AT 
PRESENT.

.ALY...NONE.  

$$


HWJIV