000
FXUS04 KWBC 140953
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
452 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2009


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 14/1200 UTC THRU FEB 17/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

06Z UPDATE...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO PRELIM GUIDANCE ACRS THE GULF COAST
BASED ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS WELL AS INPUT FROM 00Z ECMWF
WHICH SUPPORTS HIER AMOUNTS ALONG THE CNTL AND ERN GULF COASTS.

ALONG THE WEST COAST..THE ECMWF IS STILL SLIGHTLY DRIER ACRS THE
NW COAST OF CA..BUT HAS TRENDED WETTER FROM THE 12Z SOLN..SO DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES HERE.

...WEST COAST...
UPR LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SW OREGON COAST WILL WEAKEN AND PULL
SLIGHTLY NWWD IN RESPONSE TO NEXT UPSTREAM UPR TROF THAT WILL DIG
SWD..CLOSING OFF OFFSHORE OF THE NRN COAST OF CA BY SUN MORNING.
GENLY LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY 1 PD WITH LINGERING MSTR AND UPR DYNAMICS..THOUGH AS THE UPR
LOW APCHS SAT NIGHT..INCREASING 85H SLY TO SWLY FLOW OF UP TO 50
KTS ALONG APCHG FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD HEAVIER RAINS
INTO THE NW PORTION OF CA.  THE GFS MAY BE A TAD FAST IN DVLPG
PCPN INTO NW CA..THOUGH BY THE END OF THE PD..THE UKMET..CANADIAN
GEM..AND GFS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT BRINGING .50 TO 1 INCH PLUS
AMOUNTS INTO THE REGION..WHICH WAS GENLY FOLLOWED.  THIS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF
00Z ECMWF MAINTAINS SLOWER TIMING.

...CNTL/ERN GULF COAST...
STG E/W SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK EXPECTED TO PUSHED EWD FROM NRN MEX
INTO THE GULF COAST REGION..WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS THE REGION AS IT PROVIDES PD OF LARGE SCALE
ACCENT NEAR FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACRS THE REGION.  THE FRONT
ITSELF SHOULD BE FORCED SLIGHTLY SWD TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD
ACRS THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY BUT EXPECT SOME WEAK WAVE DVLPMENT SAT
NIGHT ACRS THE CTNL GULF IN RESPONSE TO APCHG JET STREAK WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW WARM FRONTAL PCPN TO WORK NWD AGAIN ACRS THE CNTL
GULF COAST.  MODELS SHOW SOME SPREAD HERE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
WAVE..WITH THE GFS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER WITH ITS FASTER/WETTER
SOLN.  CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN GENL..THUS HAVE TAKEN A BLENDED
APCH OF THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE 00Z CAN/UKMET/NAM SOLNS HERE.

...GRT BASIN/ROCKIES...
S/WV ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF SRN CA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THRU THE 4
CORNERS REGION BEFORE EMERGING ACRS THE CNTL PLAINS AND WEAKENING
SAT NIGHT.  WEAK MID/UPR LEVEL FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE S/WV
WILL FAVOR SOME LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT SNOWS THRU PARTS OF THE
REGION..ESPECIALLY THE NRN WASATCH EWD INTO THE WRN CO MTNS. NO
REAL ISSUES WITH NAM/GFS AMOUNTS HERE CONSIDERING MSTR/AVAILABLE
DYNAMICS.

...GT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
LIGHT SNOWS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACRS THE REGION EARLY DAY 1
IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING S/WV TROF MOVING THRU THE REGION.
AMOUNTS IN GELY SHOULD BE .10 INCH OR LESS.


...DAYS 2 AND 3...

...GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...
FAST ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE SRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY WILL HALT THE
PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL ZONE... WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY STALL IN
THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AT THE END OF SAT/EARLY SUN. SHORT WAVE
DYNAMICS STARTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VLY WILL
SLIDE INTO THE TN VLY/SOUTHEAST AND INDUCE A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE DUE
EAST INTO NRN FL AND PROCEED OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST BY SAT
MORNING. BEFORE THIS OCCURS... THIS LOW AND UPPER DYNAMICS
INCLUDING ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT FROM A DYNAMIC UPPER JET STREAK
WILL CAPITALIZE ON A POOL OF DEEP LL MOISTURE W/ PWS AOA 1.25
INCHES. EXPECT A STREAK OF HEAVY RAIN/CONVECTION TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE FL PANHANDLE INTO NRN FL/EXTREME SERN GA WITH AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM A .50 INCH UP TO 2 INCHES. HPC FOLLOWED THE VERY AGREEABLE
00Z GFS W/ ECMWF ON ALL FACETS OF THIS SYSTEM.

...WEST...
YET ANOTHER FEW UNSETTLED DAYS ACROSS THE WEST ESPECIALLY IN CA...
AS A LARGE UPPER VORTEX OVER THE ERN PAC SHIFTS INTO NRN CA AND
PLENTY OF PAC DYNAMICS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CA AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS BETTER ALIGNED TONIGHT...
NOT ONLY ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES BUT THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE
DETAILS ON SUN AND MON. AS A RESULT... HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF W/ THE GFS. THE ACTION ON SUN WILL CONSUME MUCH
OF CA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE COAST... TRANSPORTING
IN .75 TO 1 INCH PWS IN THE PREDOMINANT SWRLY FLOW AND THE NOSE OF
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET SHIFTS DOWN THE COASTLINE FROM NRN CA INTO
CENTRAL CA. THE RESULTANT OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN NRN CA AND CENTRAL CA COAST/COASTAL TERRAIN W/ HEAVY
SNOWFALL IN THE CA SIERRA. IN FACT THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN
IDEAL SET-UP FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST...
WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. BY MON... THE POWERFUL SHORT WAVE
IMPACTING CA WILL SHIFT DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NRN FOUR CORNERS
REGION BUT ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER ALL ACROSS CA. EXPECT
THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS ON MON TO OCCUR DIRECTLY ALONG THE CA
COAST... THE SIERRA... SRN CA MTNS AND INTO AZ.

SULLIVAN/MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 15/12Z
 0.01 499658 496649 493646 488642 486643 479650 472652 463643
      459639 455638 452639 446643 444652 443658 445667 451674
      460681 462685 462690 461695 457701 453706 451708 448710
      444714 444718 447724 451726 456721 461716 466715 471710
      477707 485702 487698 488690 491680 495674 497668 499658
 0.01 532165 531156 529149 526140 523135 516123 511118 505114
      501114 497116 493120 487116 481114 476116 473119 474124
      478129 478138 483142 488146 494149 500153 512151 516157
      520160 525164 528166 531167 532165
 0.01 513889 511879 506875 503864 498859 492857 485855 475853
      469851 464848 461844 457836 453829 449828 446827 442825
      437818 433810 428790 425779 421772 411762 403753 398751
      396753 396755 396769 392779 386790 382796 377799 369803
      365805 361809 353817 342837 339836 336835 336831 340819
      344808 345802 345795 346779 346764 345761 343759 338759
      329758 323758 319761 312768 298789 295792 293791 290792
      289794 285805 282815 279828 278837 279849 281858 280863
      281868 280875 274888 271899 268923 267934 267940 269946
      272953 273959 271971 272978 277975 288969 299970 304968
      308964 315957 321949 329941 338932 343928 346923 349916
      350909 349904 347899 339888 333880 331875 333871 338861
      341856 347856 353859 360859 374854 387848 390847 393848
      396850 399854 402859 408864 417863 422864 427867 430875
      435881 438883 442882 446880 450880 454880 460883 464887
      469890 475890 486890 495894 499895 503894 506891 513889
 0.01 474159 472148 468141 463135 456131 454129 452125 454122
      459114 462106 465104 470106 474104 473098 470091 465089
      460089 452092 444090 436091 430089 425090 424094 424100
      422103 419105 415103 413100 412094 417085 420078 421073
      424071 430072 436076 449079 455081 464082 468082 469080
      471077 471072 467054 467043 466035 462026 455018 445009
      439005 435002 430002 428005 428008 429021 430025 428026
      424026 420027 413028 409030 406034 404038 401047 401050
      397053 391057 378062 372057 369056 364058 358061 355067
      356073 358075 360080 359085 358089 359094 364097 373097
      378103 386105 387109 385112 381117 374119 370121 369125
      372128 374130 377130 382127 394127 407130 412128 414127
      416129 418132 419138 418143 415149 409148 405153 404159
      405164 407171 406182 406186 408191 413199 415204 418208
      412207 408205 394198 391195 387194 382191 375187 368186
      364189 367191 369193 372192 372198 378206 385212 388216
      385216 371212 366207 360203 354205 350211 340222 336228
      332237 331248 333257 336262 342268 347270 354270 365266
      370264 376264 382267 386270 394271 402271 406272 410275
      419280 428284 436286 440284 443279 447271 451259 452249
      451239 449234 445232 450230 453229 456227 460224 461216
      459213 454211 448213 439212 433207 427202 426196 428193
      430190 434188 438188 442186 443182 439180 435176 431174
      429171 431162 437166 443170 449171 452167 453160 456156
      459153 462153 464155 469159 474159
 0.01 448142 451138 448135 446133 445133 444133 443137 445139
      447142 448142 448142
 0.01 441125 440121 440120 439120 437123 437124 437127 440129
      441125
 0.01 411814 406814 401815 397816 391817 386821 384824 382827
      383831 388830 394829 397828 399826 405822 407820 411814
 0.01 335960 332957 328958 325958 320962 318963 315967 313970
      311975 311979 317977 319975 324972 327970 330968 334964
      335960
 0.25 441252 443247 444243 443239 440238 434237 429232 425232
      423234 417232 416228 417220 414215 408212 398207 393206
      392209 393211 398220 397223 389222 380223 374224 370227
      363232 355240 355246 358249 364253 371254 383258 396261
      406261 417262 427263 441252
 0.25 412072 412068 410065 407063 403064 398067 395065 392066
      387068 387076 389079 393083 398085 401082 404079 408076
      412072
 0.25 406114 407110 406108 404110 403112 402113 403115 406114
      406114
 0.25 321813 319802 314793 312791 308792 304797 300804 297812
      292825 290831 289839 289855 288872 287885 286893 284902
      282915 281925 281935 282943 285951 293952 300955 304955
      306952 308945 313939 316932 320919 321913 321908 319899
      316880 316870 316861 318846 321830 321814 321813
 0.50 429244 427242 424242 423242 424244 427244 429244
 0.50 417248 419244 416241 413237 412233 413228 414224 414219
      408215 402216 403218 404222 402224 398225 392224 382226
      375227 372231 369236 371241 379248 386253 392255 400256
      405256 414250 417248
 0.50 311820 309813 307810 304808 302812 299818 296830 293841
      292857 292868 289894 285921 286930 288939 296945 299947
      302944 303940 306936 309932 312918 314904 314898 312888
      312874 312866 312858 312846 313830 311820
 1.00 406248 408245 408241 407237 405232 405229 402231 399231
      396230 391229 385230 384234 384238 387242 391246 394248
      399250 402250 406248
 1.00 410226 410222 410221 409222 407225 408229 410226
 1.00 306823 305819 303821 301828 299837 297843 296862 296879
      295889 295896 295916 296921 298924 300922 304917 308901
      307890 307882 308873 307863 306853 306845 306826 306823
 1.50 404244 403242 401239 398237 395236 392236 395240 395241
      397244 400245 403245 404244
 1.50 304880 304877 304874 303871 301869 300871 300875 299875
      299878 299882 299885 299888 300890 301888 302886 303884
      304881 304880

24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 473685 469679 465676 463679 462685 458690 456695 455701
      451708 446716 445721 445726 446729 448730 452729 459723
      463716 466706 465697 467693 471691 473685
 0.01 515185 516180 514177 510173 508165 508160 510156 508151
      503141 499122 498107 497089 498081 500077 500065 501054
      500035 496024 495009 491992 490987 491984 494980 495973
      495965 493956 490947 487942 483937 480936 477935 473936
      466942 465944 465949 465953 467957 469963 469974 470982
      467985 461992 457995 455997 455001 457009 459018 456032
      459038 462040 465043 468047 470057 474062 476064 480069
      482073 482080 482099 478113 476120 473124 469129 469137
      468145 470154 469171 470176 472179 475181 480184 483181
      486177 489178 492180 494183 497186 501188 506189 511188
      515185
 0.01 481249 482245 481241 479238 477234 473232 470229 471226
      478221 482218 484214 482209 477207 471207 468207 465205
      463201 463198 463190 465181 465178 464174 458171 455168
      455162 455159 453155 447153 444152 442149 440146 437145
      435145 433149 433153 433156 431159 426163 425167 426170
      430175 429179 427182 428186 429187 432188 434192 435195
      436201 436205 433203 428196 423192 417193 410192 402190
      394191 388188 374182 366180 360181 358184 357188 356191
      353190 349184 347181 343178 337174 329173 323172 315173
      309175 306179 302186 298194 296202 299209 307215 310217
      310221 310228 314236 318239 322240 331243 335244 339244
      350242 357243 364245 374248 384252 394261 404271 409275
      415275 431273 438270 443265 453257 458254 464252 469253
      476252 481249
 0.01 476884 476880 474876 472872 471864 471860 470855 467854
      464856 462860 460866 459873 460881 464887 468892 471892
      474889 476884
 0.01 447861 445857 440855 437855 433854 427854 422855 416859
      415861 417864 421866 424868 430867 433867 439866 442866
      445865 447861
 0.01 432016 428011 422006 416002 410000 404998 399999 398001
      402007 406011 412014 417018 423021 428022 431020 432016
 0.01 357747 354746 353742 352734 350732 347731 346731 335741
      326749 313758 303765 287782 283788 281793 281799 280805
      277811 274813 269817 265822 267848 267856 269863 269867
      271870 276872 275896 276910 274920 273927 273937 274944
      277951 281950 284947 291939 298928 303918 307907 309902
      313898 326891 338886 342882 345877 346872 346865 345860
      339854 339851 341848 346845 349841 353836 357825 358817
      358807 355792 352779 352772 353765 356755 357750 357747
 0.01 351124 351122 350120 349117 348116 347113 346112 344109
      343108 340106 340109 339112 340116 341119 342121 345123
      348124 351124 351124
 0.01 279016 276009 275004 277998 277991 276984 272976 269972
      264969 257967 249968 242972 237975 233980 232985 233992
      236997 241002 245006 255012 265019 271022 275022 278019
      279016
 0.25 428256 428252 426247 423240 420232 420225 422218 420212
      416207 410203 404200 394197 386195 378192 370193 364196
      358199 355199 351197 349197 348193 347189 343186 335184
      329186 323188 317192 312196 311198 312201 317204 323210
      324214 322217 322222 325226 327230 331233 336236 342237
      349236 356236 365237 372240 379243 386246 394251 406259
      413263 420265 425261 428256
 0.25 336777 334766 332762 330761 321768 309778 303782 300785
      295792 293798 289806 286814 285821 284831 283844 284857
      285873 286881 289885 292885 297884 304881 314875 318874
      321871 323865 321851 322836 324824 325808 327796 329791
      333786 336777
 0.25 254994 252992 250991 249991 246991 244990 241992 241993
      243995 244996 247998 248998 250997 252996 254994
 0.50 413254 410240 410235 411229 415220 412214 408210 404205
      398202 391200 384198 378199 374202 369204 366203 360202
      354202 350200 344191 342188 339187 335188 331192 329199
      332207 336211 335214 332219 330221 331224 334229 340232
      346233 359232 366233 372235 396248 407253 413254
 0.50 320789 317785 313784 304789 298795 294803 291812 289819
      288830 288840 288850 290858 290866 292872 294876 297877
      300877 303875 306872 312865 314861 315856 316848 318837
      319828 319818 318807 317802 318796 320789
 1.00 409222 402208 394204 390204 386205 381209 376210 371210
      367209 359207 350206 345208 341217 340221 341226 348228
      353228 362229 367229 377231 382233 390239 394241 398237
      399232 401227 406225 409222
 1.00 309804 307799 304797 302799 298804 296810 294821 294833
      297846 298855 300862 300866 303864 305853 309842 312830
      313824 312817 309804
 1.50 401216 401212 400210 397208 394207 391210 393213 396215
      399216 401216
 1.50 378225 379221 378218 375215 370213 365211 359209 353209
      349210 347215 346219 348222 354225 359226 365227 371227
      374227 378225
 1.50 307825 307819 306812 302807 300808 298812 297816 297823
      298826 299832 301838 304837 305833 306829 307825
 2.00 374224 374220 372216 370215 367214 364212 362211 359211
      356211 354212 353212 350214 350218 351220 354222 357223
      359224 361224 362224 365225 368225 371225 374224
 2.00 304823 304820 304817 301814 301815 300818 300821 300822
      301825 304824 304823
 3.00 370219 369219 366217 364215 361214 358214 356216 356219
      357220 360222 363222 366222 367222 369220 370219
 4.00 364218 364217 361216 360217 360218 363219 364218


24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 479696 475684 466676 458669 450666 447667 444666 440667
      438669 434675 435679 438685 445694 452698 460701 469704
      477707 479696
 0.01 505123 506116 507108 505097 502079 499063 499041 496016
      494006 492996 490989 489984 489979 494974 496968 497958
      497945 496923 494909 492900 490888 490878 488866 485854
      482848 474842 467830 462823 459820 456821 452825 450833
      449840 448848 449864 452876 454884 457895 459905 461915
      461924 462935 464945 473986 476005 478024 479034 479042
      479048 478057 478067 479076 481083 485089 488095 491104
      491116 490126 488128 484128 478127 474130 474137 479141
      481143 483146 482149 478155 476160 477165 480171 484174
      490175 495172 496165 496158 495148 496139 505123
 0.01 457223 457219 454216 451215 446215 440213 435210 433206
      430199 432189 432182 431179 432176 435173 440166 443165
      446164 448162 447154 446150 444137 445130 446128 452121
      454113 455106 455102 453098 447097 440096 432090 425085
      422089 423096 424099 422100 416103 413102 412099 415095
      418091 417087 415084 417072 413064 404061 375061 369058
      363059 359061 355065 354068 355072 361079 363082 359085
      353081 346083 341087 327098 322104 320106 318112 315118
      311123 308130 309131 314134 323135 328137 330139 330142
      326144 320148 313152 308156 304161 303163 304167 305168
      304175 306181 311186 318191 324197 331209 334217 336225
      340233 349238 368244 382250 400258 420267 425267 427265
      430262 433256 452238 449235 448231 451226 457223
 0.01 401795 401791 398788 395788 392788 389790 387793 386794
      385796 384799 383801 383803 385807 388808 391807 394805
      396803 398800 400796 401795
 0.01 375788 372786 367784 363783 359783 356782 350783 345785
      340790 345794 348795 352795 357796 361795 366795 372792
      375788
 0.01 397921 397916 394914 388913 380915 374920 372924 369931
      366936 358942 353948 352954 352963 355968 361966 365962
      368950 372946 378944 384940 388935 395926 397921
 0.01 288021 289018 289015 286011 285008 286003 285994 282989
      272977 267972 261969 253968 244969 239969 234973 231976
      231982 233990 237996 242000 251009 262019 268023 276025
      279026 284025 288021
 0.25 420233 420226 418219 415213 412209 404203 395198 389194
      384190 381186 378182 378173 386168 390162 392154 389146
      387141 386135 388129 390124 387121 383121 376121 363119
      355116 350113 346110 342106 337104 333107 331111 332115
      335119 339122 340126 341135 344140 348143 355143 360143
      365146 366150 365153 360159 358164 354166 348165 340162
      328161 321159 316161 314164 314168 317173 323179 328186
      334197 339205 346213 351220 359228 369235 378240 388245
      395248 402249 407248 411247 417240 420233
 0.25 435112 429108 423110 420112 414113 409111 403111 398113
      395117 397121 402122 405121 411121 417120 423119 426118
      429116 435112
 0.25 399079 398077 398076 395073 392072 389074 388076 387079
      386079 385083 386085 389087 391087 392087 395086 397083
      398081 399079
 0.25 361195 359192 358191 356190 353188 351190 351193 352196
      355197 358197 361196 361195
 0.50 409229 412223 411218 409214 407212 403208 395203 389198
      383193 375184 371177 367175 359175 353176 352179 352182
      355185 360190 364195 366198 363203 353200 349194 349178
      348173 346170 344166 340164 333163 325163 321164 319167
      321171 325175 329180 342204 352215 360224 386241 391243
      395243 400242 402241 409229
 0.50 394079 392077 389079 389080 392081 394079
 0.50 376144 378141 376137 373135 371133 371129 370129 368129
      365128 365129 367131 369132 370135 371136 370140 372143
      373144 375145 376144
 0.50 360135 361132 359128 356125 355124 355121 354120 351119
      348118 346120 347123 346127 346130 347134 350137 353138
      356137 359136 360135
 0.50 344116 343115 342113 340110 339109 337108 336109 335112
      337114 339116 340116 343117 344116
 1.00 387205 386201 382196 379192 376190 373187 368183 363182
      360185 362188 364191 367194 372198 375200 378203 383205
      387205
 1.00 365218 364216 361214 360217 361218 363219 365218
 1.00 346199 344192 345185 345175 344171 342167 336166 330167
      327168 327170 331176 334182 337187 341193 346199 346199
 1.50 378195 376193 374191 373190 371188 368186 365189 367191
      369194 370194 372196 375197 378195
 1.50 343185 344182 344178 343175 342171 341170 338170 336173
      335177 336180 337183 337184 339187 342187 343185
 2.00 343181 342178 342174 341172 340174 338177 338180 339184
      339185 340184 343182 343181

$$