Date: Mon, 01 Mar 1999 11:57:45 -0600
From: Paul J Roebber <roebber@csd.uwm.edu>
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To: eegle-pi@wings.glerl.noaa.gov, fieldwork@glerl.noaa.gov
Subject: Update on Next "Event"

A week ago I sent the following message:


> The next putative plume event does not appear possible until
> early-to-middle next week (week of March 1), when 2 storm systems
> develop in the southern U.S. The first storm is currently forecast to
> develop to our SE and affect the east coast of the U.S. more than us,
> while the second may more directly threaten us. Way too early to say
> much about either one at this point, but I'll keep watching and try to
> keep you informed.
>

I have been monitoring the situation. The second system that I referred
to is still slated to affect the lake, but the intensity appears to be a
little bit shy of what we need for an event of the scale of last March.
Currently, the track is forecast just south of the lakes (good for high
northerly winds), but the storm does not really intensify much until
Tuesday night-Wed morning. By that time, it should bring in northerly
winds across the lake on the order of 20-25 knots. I'll keep an eye on
it as it develops.

The next chance arises on the weekend, when another system may come
through - now, it appears this system will stay south (but we know how
that goes, don't we?). The middle of the following week (Tues-Wed, 9-10
March) appears to be the next really good chance for a major wind storm.
Are we going for 2 years in a row on the same date?

Paul Roebber