EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 910 PM EST WED MAR 21 2001 SFC AND UPPER LOW PULLING NORTHEAST ACROSS NC...WITH 00Z RUC SHOWING A COUPLE OF IMPULSES PRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER NORTH AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN TOMORROW AS COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY ALLOWING MID LEVEL TEMPS TO WARM. 00Z XMR SOUNDING SHOWS H7 TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED TO 0C. PLAN NO UPDATES TO ZONES. MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE COME BACK UP THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE SCA BOTH LEGS. WILL ALSO SHOW A TREND TOWARD DECREASING WINDS TOMORROW AS FLOW VEERS TO THE NORTHWEST. .MLB...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60NM.. ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL EC FL COUNTIES THURSDAY. PUBLIC/MARINE...KELLY AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BRAGAW fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1012 PM EST WED MAR 21 2001 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SPINNING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NC. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLEARING ACROSS UPSTATE SC THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WHILE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS PRIMARILY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A PROBLEM AT THIS TIME...BUT THE IDEA WAS THAT WINDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLED AWAY. THE RUC SHOWS DNVA AND SUBSIDENCE ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BOTH THE 00Z RUC AND 00Z ETA SHOW WINDS INCREASING TO 50KTS OR SO AT 850 MB AROUND 06Z. SEE NO REASON TO BACK DOWN FROM THE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...ALTHO I AM A BIT SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE WIND POTENTIAL OVER THE NE GA/SC MOUNTAINS WHICH ARE SOMEWHAT SHELTERED FROM N OR NW FLOW. OTHER DETAILS WILL BE ADJUSTED AS WELL. WILL TAKE PRECIP OUT OF NW PIEDMONT ZONES AS KRAX/KFCX RADARS SHOW THE PRECIP HAVING MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO TWEAK CLOUD COVER FORECAST OVER UPSTATE SC TO GET RID OF MORE CLOUDINESS. FCSTID = 10 GSP 38 68 37 67 / 10 0 10 0 AND 38 70 39 70 / 10 0 10 0 CLT 38 67 37 67 / 10 0 10 0 HKY 37 64 34 64 / 30 0 10 0 AVL 33 60 30 63 / 20 0 10 10 .GSP... GA...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR ZONES GAZ010-017. NC...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR ZONES NCZ033-048>053-058>059-062>065. SC...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR ZONES SCZ001>003. MOORE sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 922 PM EST WED MAR 21 2001 SURFACE LOW ALONG MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVING NORTHEAST. RADAR SHOWING RAIN WELL EAST OF AREA...WITH RAPID CLEARING TAKING PLACE ACROSS PIEDMONT AND MIDLANDS. CLOUDS LINGERING EAST OF CAE AND IN THE PEE DEE. SURFACE DATA SHOWS COLD FRONT IN THE PIEDMONT WILL MOVE THRU CAE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WINDS MAY PICK UP FOR A WHILE GUST TO 20 THEN DIMINISH...TIGHTEST SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS NORTH GA. RUCII MODEL INDICATES MOISTURE OUT OF THE PEE DEE AROUND MIDNIGHT...MAY BE A TAD SLOW BASED ON SATELLITE. WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S...WILL CHANGE SKY COVER TO MOSTLY CLEAR CAE-AGS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST OF CAE. NO OTHER CHANGES. FCSTID = 19 CAE 39 70 42 72 / 10 5 5 5 AGS 37 71 40 73 / 10 5 5 5 SSC 38 70 42 72 / 10 5 5 5 OGB 38 70 42 72 / 10 5 5 5 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. AWP sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 848 PM EST WED MAR 21 2001 STILL QUITE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND SOME PERSISTENT WEAK RETURNS ON AREA DOPPLER RADARS. CALLS MADE TO MAIN COUNTIES OF CONCERN SEEMED TO INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN...WITH NO RECENT REPORTS OF ANY SNOW (OF COURSE HIGHEST TERRAIN AREAS ARE QUITE REMOTE AND LACK OF REPORTS IS COMMON). LATEST RUC MODEL DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR SWRN VA/EXTRM NE TN/NE TN MTN GROUPS. WILL LIKELY CARRY AS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN (ABOVE 3000 FEET). SOME NEW RETURNS CONTINUE TO WORK INTO PLATEAU COUNTIES...AND SUSPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. MAY SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP SOME BEFORE DAYBREAK...ALTHO SWRN VA/NE TN ZONES LEAST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT. I WILL CHECK LATEST TEMPS ON THE HOUR...AND HAVE A ZONE UPDATE OUT BY AROUND 930 PM OR SO. THE SOUTH CHICKAMAUGA APPARENTLY HAS CRESTED WITH LATEST STAGE AT 17.5 FEET...SO A FLOOD STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO END THE THREAT OF FLOODING. .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. TG tn TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 231 PM CST WED MAR 21 2001 RECENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR DALHART TO CLOVIS. COOL FRONT BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWEST ZONES. THERE IS A 20 DEGREE DEWPOINT GRADIENT BETWEEN GAGE AND CLAYTON AND A CUMULUS FIELD IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN PUEBLO AND SPRINGER...NORTHEAST NM AND OVER DALLAM-SHERMAN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...TEMPS ARE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE MORE REALISTIC AVN AND RUC MODELS DUE TO THEIR BETTER REPRESENTATION OF SURFACE FEATURES MORE-SO THAN THE ETA WHICH FORECASTED 50-55 DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP. COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND BRING A WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH COOL/MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL RETAIN COOL TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POST FRONTAL MODEL FORECASTS. WILL ALSO RETAIN CURRENT POP FORECAST FOR LATER PERIODS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL INTRODUCE DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. KDHT 038/068 036/058 032 -03 KAMA 041/072 039/062 035 002 .AMA... .TX...NONE. .OK...NONE. SLATTERY tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 938 PM EST WED MAR 21 2001 UPGRADED ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO WINTER STORM WARNING. ALL INDICATIONS OBS...RADAR...SATELLITE POINT TO STRONG 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS/DEFORMATION TAKING PLACE ACROSS NY STATE OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS PIVOTS ACROSS ADIRODACKS AND NORTHERN VT THROUGH FRIDAY AND EXPECT THIS AREA TO RECEIVE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. RAIN NOT REALLY A FACTOR AS MANY OBS SHOW QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. REPORTS OF NEAR AN INCH IN THE WOODSTOCK AREA ALREADY. RADAR SUGGESTS UPPING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING FROM 5 TO 9 INCHES IN THE SOUTH AND WEST TO 1 TO 3 IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE PRECIP REDUCTION WITH DOWNSLOPING OFF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATER THURSDAY. LOCAL 5-KM MESOETA SHOWS THIS NICELY IN 850-700 MB VVEL AND RH FIELDS. PRECIP AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBS TRENDS AND RUC FORECAST THROUGH 12Z WHICH SHOWS UP TO 1.00 OF WATER EQUIVALENT. STILL EXPECT 8-10 TO 1 RATIOS WITH THIS STORM. SISSON .BTV...WINTER STORM WARNING VTZ001>012-NYZ026>031-034-035 THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT vt SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO 254 AM MST THU MAR 22 2001 MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TDA-FRI...THEN COLD FRONT STILL APPEARS ON TRACK FOR FRI NGT-SAT. CURRENTLY: LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED WLY FLOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND HARD TO DISCERN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. STRONGEST SHORTWAVE WAS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO SRN CA. PLENTY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE DESERT SW PER WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERYS. SRN CO LAPS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IS AOA 400MB...AT THE MOMENT. 700MB TEMPS AROUND +3C...PRESENTLY. THIS IS ABOUT 3C COOLER THAN YDA. SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO COOL OVRNGT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 PLAINS AND 20S SAN LUIS/UPPER AR RIVER VALLEYS. BEEN KEEPING AN EYE ON STRATUS/FOG IN NERN CO/NWRN KS. COULDN'T RULE OUT SOMETHING FORMING/MOVING INTO KLAA AREA THIS AM. TDA-FRI: GENERALLY THE SAME UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HARD TO TRACK WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TDA...AND THE DESERT SW SHORTWAVE MOVES S OF CO ON FRI. 300- 200MB LAYER PV NOT HELPING MUCH TDA-FRI...PVUS OF AROUND 1 TDA THEN 2 ON FRI. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER 700MB/SFC TEMPS TDA-FRI... INSTABILITIES SHOULDN'T BE AS STRONG AS YDA. MIXING +3C/700MB DRY ADIABATICALLY TO 800MB(ROUGHLY COS/ALS) YIELDS UPPER 50S AND TO 850MB(PUB) MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO BE A FACTOR. LI'S FORECAST TO BE 0 TO -2C BY THIS AFTN AND 0 TO -3C FRI AFTN. 700- 500MB LAPSE RATES PROGGED TO BE AROUND 7 C/KM COMPARED TO YDA'S 8.5-9 C/KM. QUALITY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IS LOW GRADE BOTH DAYS. 700- 500MB LAYER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FORECAST TO BE 2 G/KG. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...COULDN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAY JUST BE VIRGA....BUT SFC DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YDA. FEEL THE PROBABILITY FOR LIGHTNING IS PRETTY LOW...GIVEN WHAT OCCURRED YDA IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. CAN'T FIND ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT TO ENHANCE CONVECTION TDA-FRI. WEAK OR NIL LOW LEVEL CONVGERENCE TO KEY ON FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. I COULDN'T RULE OUT A STRIKE OR TWO...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. ANY POTENTIAL SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WET BULB ZERO 8-9.5K FT MSL OR HIGHER. LOWER TROP WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TDA AND SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO THERMALLY DRIVEN MOUNTAIN-VALLEY CIRCULATIONS. 500MB WINDS NOT AS STRONG(10-20KTS) AS YDA AND WE SHOULDN'T MIXING THAT HIGH TDA ANYWAY...SO STRONG GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL IS LOW. FOR TNGT...ALL MODELS SUGGEST LOWER TROP WINDS WILL BECOME W-SWLY...10-20KTS...AND HINTING STRATUS/FOG MIGRATING OUT OF NERN NM. NOT SURE ABOUT THE "AREAS OF FOG" CURRENTLY IN THE FCST FOR SERN CO MTNS/PLAINS. WILL LIKELY REMOVE FOR SERN CO MTNS...BUT WILL MAKE IT A LAST CALL FOR SERN CO PLAINS. ON FRI...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SYNOPTIC SCALE PARAMETERS AS SHORTWAVE PASSES S OF CO. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NE AS NEXT COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. MOS TEMPS AND CURRENT FCST LOOK GOOD. MAV POPS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH AS AVN HAS BEEN OVERDOING POPS/QPF LATELY. FRI NGT: THE REAL COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO SURGE WWD AND BACKDOOR INTO ERN CO FRI EVE. FAIRLY STRONG CAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...1040- 1045MB...PROGGED TO MOVE INTO S CNTRL CAN BY THE WEEKEND. FRONT PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW 1-4K FT AGL THICK ACROSS SERN CO MTNS/ PLAINS BY SAT AM. PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FRI EVE. UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED TO BE 5-15KTS ACROSS THE SERN CO FOOTHILLS/ PLAINS. SHOULD SEE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING FRI NGT IN THESE AREAS. WET BULB ZERO FORECAST TO BE 5-7K FT MSL ACROSS SERN CO PLAINS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. ALSO 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES POINT TO LIQUID POTENTIAL FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE SERN CO PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL MIX WOULD BE AT THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA. EXTENDED(SAT-WED): TOUGH TEMP FORECAST IN SERN CO FOR SAT. AVNX... ETAX NOT AVAILABLE...SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER CNTRL ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO DEEP LOW OVER GREAT LAKES AND W COAST SYSTEM COMING ON SHORE. SFC WINDS PROGGED TO GO S-SELY WHICH IS DOWNSLOPE OFF THE RATON DIVIDE...BUT UPSLOPE FOR THE SRN PALMER DIVIDE. 700MB PROGGED TO BE WLY 10-20KTS. HARD PRESSURE TO FIND ANY STRONG DEEP VERTICAL MOTION TO GO FOR HIGHER THAN "SLIGHT CHANCE" POP WORDING. AVNX REALLY CRANKING OUT THE QPF AND AM SUSPICIOUS OF THIS AS MODEL HAS BEEN OVERPLAYING MID-LEVEL WAA PRECIPITATION LATELY. ACTUALLY... THROUGH EARLY NEXT RIDGE PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT AND AVNX PRINTS OUT MUCHO QPF SUN-TUE...EACH DAY HERE IN THE SEMI-ARID DESERT. 700MB TEMPS WARM TO +2 TO +6C BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH PUTS TEMPS AOA CLIMO. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR EFP. .PUB...NONE. METZE co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 400 AM EST THU MAR 22 2001 MAIN FCST CONCERNS CHC OF -RA/-SN TDA AND TEMPS TDA AND TNGT. WV IMAGERY SHOWING DEEP MLVL LOW MOV THRU MID ATL STATES AND ANOTHER WEAKER LOW CNTR OVR SRN HUDSON BAY. WV IMAGERY AND RUC SUPPORTS THE DVLPMNT OF A WEAK SHRTWV OVR WRN ONT IN ASSOC WITH CDFNT ATTM. CYC FLOW ARND THE MID ATL LOW WAS DRAWING THE MSTR OVR CNTR CONUS SE AWAY FM FA. SFC ANLYS SHOWING A DOME OF HI PRES ACRS WRN GT LAKES THIS AM. A CDFNT WAS EDGING SE OUT OF WRN ONT AND NRN MN. WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF BR/FG WERE OVR SRN MN/SRN WI/NRN IA THIS AM. A FEW REPORTS OF BR/FG ALSO SHOWING UP ARND FA SO WILL MENTION SOME. MDLS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU 36HRS IN PULLING THE MLVL LOW UP THE NRN NEW ENGLAND CST...THE DVLPMNT OF RIDGE ALONG THE W CST...THE NW FLOW ACRS NRN CONUS AND WRN CAN...AND THE DVLPG OF A MLVL LOW OVR NRN MANITOBA. AFT 36HRS...MINOR DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP MAINLY IN THE DVLPMNT OF MID LVL LOW OVR WRN ONT. AVN HAS THIS LOW FARTHER S THAN THE ETA/NGM. AVN IS ALSO MOVG THE W CST RIDGE ABOUT 12HRS FASTER THAN THE ETA/NGM. TOGETHER AVN SHOWING A MORE ENHANCED NW FLOW ACRS WRN CAN AND N CNTRL US. MDLS HAVE SIMILAR TRACK OF BUILDING THE SFC RIDGE INTO NRN PLAINS BY 48HRS. CAN GEM PACKAGE FAVOR THE ETA SOLN AS WELL. EVEN THOUGH THE DIFFERENCES ARE MINOR...WILL FAVOR THE DEEPER AVN CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPR TROF MOVING INTO THE FA AND RIDGE OVR THE W CST. AVN LOOKS MOST REASONABLE. A SHRTWV ENERGY WILL MOV ACRS THR FA TDA AND THIS EVE IN ASSOC WITH THE CAN CDFNT. AHEAD OF THIS FRNT XPCT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE LLVL WRMG WHICH SHOULD BRING THE TEMPS INTO THE LOW OR MID 40S. MDLS SHOWING FAIRLY DRY COND...EXCEPT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING FROPA. COND STILL LTL DRYER THAN PREVIOUS RUN. FOLLOWING THE FROPA...THE ATMOSPHERE DRYS OUT RAPIDLY. ETA/AVN QPF STILL THROWING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PCPN...IN SPITE OF LOW POPS FM GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP 30PCT CHC OF -RA OR SPRINKLES IN FOR LATE AFTN AND TNGT. WITH CLDY SKIES XPCT LTL IF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS FRO THE TEMPS TNGT...LOW AND MID 20S LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL GO WITH GUIDANCE ON THIS. A RIDGE WILL MOV ACRS WRN CAN INTO NRN PLAINS. ACYC FLOW ASSOC WITH THIS RIDGE WILL DRAW CONSIDERABLE ARCTIC AIR AND CAA INTO FA. H85 TEMPS ARE XPCT TO DROP TO -23C BY 12Z SAT OVR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH CONT NW FLOW ACRS LK SUPERIOR...XPCT INVERSION TO LIFT TO ARND 6K FT. A SHRTWV WILL MOVE ACRS LAKE SUPERIOR...ADDING TO THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE. LLVL MSTR WILL BE 70-80PCT OVR FA. OVRNGT LOW SFC TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TO 10F TO 15F. BY 12Z SAT...QUITE COLD WITH AVN SHOWING 4980M THICKNESS ACRS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS ALONG WITH SOME WEAK LLVL CNVERGENCE WILL MAKE FOR A LIKELY CHC OF SIG LES. XPCT TO SEE 2 TO 6 INCHES OF LES POSS LATE FRI INTO SAT OVR LES PRONE AREAS. THE RIDGE WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND WILL REACH NRN MANITOBA BY 00Z TUE. AVN PROJECTED SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH LLVL MSTR TO SUPPORT LES. XPCT NW FLOW AND LES TO CONT OVR FA INTO MON NGT...WHEN WNDS FALL OFF AND SWITCH TO SW WITH PASSAGE OF RIDGE. COORDINATED WITH APX. .MQT...NONE. DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE 315 AM CST THU MAR 22 2001 ...FORECAST CHALLENGES...DENSE FOG AND SHRA REDEVELOPMENT...PRECIP IN SE IN THE SHORT TERM...APPROACH OF CDFNT/CLDCVR/TEMPS TAF...PRECIP FOR FRI AND TYPE/PASSAGE OF 850MB FNT. ...SYNOPSIS...LOOP OF IR HIGHLIGHTS 110KT JET IN NW US/SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. NW FLOW PERSISTS WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES MOVING THRU. LIGHTNING PLOT HAD A FEW STROKES NR MILLER SD AROUND 0630Z...JUST N OF HURON...WITH LATEST LIGHTNING PLOT SHOWING SEVERAL STROKES WEST OF RAP. A CAREFUL ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST SFC MAP SHOWED THE APPROACHING COLD FNT STRETCHING FROM ERN MT TO NW MO. TEMPS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS JUST TO THE N OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WITH NE WNDS AND 1-3MB PRES RISES ACRS THE DAKOTAS. FARTHER S...DENSE FOG HAD DVLPD FOR PARTS OF ERN SD/SRN MN/NW IA. DUE TO SCT OUT OF LOW CLDS...VSBYS WERE BEGINNING TO DROP IN NE NEB. SFC LO PRES WAS CNTRD OVR THE TX PNHNDL WITH A WRMFNT INTO FAR SRN KS. SPRINKLES LINGERED IN THE OMAHA AREA...WITH BETTER COVERAGE IN LIGHT RAIN FM LANCASTER CO. IN SE NEB...SE INTO NW MO AND SW IA. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WERE OVR MUCH OF THE PLNS. ...FORECAST...SHORT TERM CONCERNS CENTER AROUND FOG AND REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPC HAS NW PORTION OF THE FCST AREA UNDER GENERAL TSRA IN THE DAY OUTLOOK. SPC RUC2 COMPOSITE PAGE/NEW MESOETA HAS A LARGE AREA OF STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER SD AND PWS OF .5-.6 THIS AM. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE...NEW MESOETA HAS AREA OF SHRA INTO NE NEB BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. TSRA POSSIBLE...HOWEVER WILL NOT MENTION IN WORDING OF FCST. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MINIMAL...THUS 20-30 POPS. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE MORNING HRS AND WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU MID MORNING FOR NE NEB AND PARTS OF WRN IA. TEMPS WED WERE FM THE MID 40S NE TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF 3-4 DEG C. THE ETA/AVN FCST FOR THIS AFT HAS 2-3 DEG 850 MB TEMPS WITH THE NGM A LITTLE WRMR FRM 4-6 DEG. BY TAF...SFC FNT INTO NE NEB. PREVIOUS FCST HAD MID 40S TO MID 50S AND THIS REASONABLE. BASED ON FOG EARLY AND CLDCVR NR 60 MOS APPEARS TO WRM. AIRMASS MODIFIED FOR FRI AND LOCATION OF SFC FNT INTO ECNTRL NEB. NGM IS DEEPER WITH THE LO PRES FRI AM WITH A STGR BNDRY IN NE NEB. 850MB BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE...STEEP LAPSE RATES...HIGHER PWS...WITH SHORTWAVE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHRA/TSRA IN THE NE ZONES. ALL MODELS HAVE PRECIP...WITH AS MUCH AS .25 IN NCNTRL NEB BY 12Z FRI...MOVING INTO ECNTRL NEB/WRN IA BY 18Z AND FARTHER SE BY EVENING. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND COLDER 850MB TEMPS ENOUGH TO MENTION SNOW. ...EXTENDED...SAT AND SUN STILL LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND WILL ADD CHC OF PRECIP TO MON. TUE IS NOT LOOKING AS MILD THUS WILL CUT BACK ON HIGHS .OMA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NE NEB AND PARTS OF WRN IA THIS AM. ZAPOTOCNY ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CST THU MAR 22 2001 IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING WITH EXCEPTION OF LAKESHORE AREAS. CURRENT CONDITIONS IDEAL FOR SPREADING OF PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS MOST OF CWA THROUGH SUNRISE. IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ABOVE SO DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 9AM. ETA/AVN/NGM/RUC PROGOLOGY KEEP AREA DRY AS WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH AREA TODAY. BUT REAL WORLD SHOWING LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON NOSE OF 850 JET ALONG FRONTAL POSITION. 850 MILLIBAR PROGS DO NOT ADVECT THE NOSE OF THIS JET TOWARD CWA AND CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR SUPPORT CAN BE FOUND. THIS TREND SUPPORTED BY NEW 06Z MESOETA. BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL LAST MINUTE WITH ZONES TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO PULL CHANCY PRECIPITATION FROM ZONES TODAY. IN THE FAR TERM...PROGS DIVERGE WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TO TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY. AT 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL NGM WARMER BY SEVERAL DEGREES C THAN AVN/ETA. HOWEVER AT 700 MILLIBARS AVN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURN OF MOISTURE. AT THE SURFACE...LARGEST DIFFERENCES OCCURRING AS AVN SHOWS NO SURFACE REFLECTION...ETA SCOOTS WEAK LOW ACROSS CWA...AND NGM OPTS FOR SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF CWA. QUICK PEEK AT 06Z MESOETA SHOWS SUPPORT FOR ETA SURFACE SOLUTION...BUT AVN 700 MOISTURE PATTERN. ALL 500/1000 MILLIBAR THICKNESS PROGS AGREE THAT A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION SCENARIO. THUS WILL KEEP CHANCY MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW PRECIPITATION IN FORECAST BUT ADJUST TIMING TO A MAINLY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE EAST IN LINE WITH NEW MESOETA. ALSO ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TEMPERATURES A NOTCH. .MKX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 9AM...ZNS 46>51..56>59..62>65..67>70. /...0...0...0...0...0 $$ ZAJDEL wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1110 AM EST THU MAR 22 2001 WEAK COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE WRN TIP OF THE UPR PENINSULA AND NW WI LATE THIS MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW/MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS REACHED AS FAR AS CENTRAL WI. LOOKS LIKE THE ETA ACTUALLY HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS THE CLOUD DECK HAS NOT BEEN CONFINED TO MID LEVELS. REGARDLESS...LATEST RUC AND MESO ETA HOLD OFF ON INCREASING CLOUDS UNTIL MID AFTERNOON FOR ERN UPR...LATE AFTERNOON FOR NW LOWER AND EARLY EVENING FOR NE LOWER. THIS SEEMS TO BE MATCHING WELL WITH REALITY LOOKING AT CLOUD TRENDS FROM THE LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP. WILL REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING FOG AS ALL REGIONAL OBS ARE SHOWING 10 SM AND SKC. WILL DO SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF INCREASING CLOUDS BASED ON LATEST MODELS AND TRENDS. WILL ALSO DO SOME MINOR ADJUSTING TO HIGH TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. APX...NONE. EME mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR LAKE WIND ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1000 AM EST THU MAR 22 2001 RUC SHOWS 850 MB LOW CENTER PULLING NE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTN. PRESSURE GRAD WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CANCEL WIND ADVISORY IN FAVOR OF LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN MTN ZONES AND KEEP BREEZY WORDING ELSEWHERE. TEMPS LOOK GENERALLY GOOD...BUT WILL OPEN UP A WIDER RANGE FOR NRN NC TIER ZONES. HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING SE ACROSS SRN IL/MO THIS MORNING MAY REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME EROSION IS OBSERVED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLOUDINESS ON IR AND IT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SKY COVER FOR MOST OF THE AFTN. WILL WORD SUNNY E OF MTNS TO PARTLY CLOUDY NRN NC MTNS. FCSTID = 33 GSP 67 38 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 AND 68 38 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 CLT 67 38 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 HKY 63 35 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 AVL 60 33 63 37 / 0 0 0 10 .GSP... GA...WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES THIS AFTERNOON IN MTNS. NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES THIS AFTERNOON IN MTNS. SC...WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES THIS AFTERNOON IN MTNS. HG sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 905 AM PST THU MAR 22 2001 OPEN TROUGH IS OVER THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING. LOTS OF CIRRUS AND ACCAS PRESENT. KOAK/KREV SOUNDINGS SHOW THE HIGH BASED INSTABILITY STILL OVER THE REGION. 16Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS -5 LI'S FOR REDDING AND ELEVATED CAPE OF 1500 J/KG WITH .65 PW'S. SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE THE VORT ALONG 40N 125W TAKING AIM ON THE NW COAST THIS AFTERNOON PER MODELS AND SATELLITE. APPEARS THE COASTAL MTNS WILL BE IN DPVA LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. PW'S ARE STILL RUNNING UNUSUALLY HIGH IN THIS REGION AND 12Z BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN NRN ZONES TODAY. FOR THE VALLEY THE MAIN DIFFERENCE AT REDDING AND RED BLUFF IS THE CAP IS MUCH WEAKER TODAY THAN OTHER DAYS...CINS VALUES UNDER 15. CAP IS STRONGER FURTHER SOUTH IN THE VALLEY. WILL CONSIDER ADDING TSTM FOR NRN SAC VLY IN ZONES. IF ETA IS CORRECT WITH THE WEAK CAP AND THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING INDUCING SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AT REDDING THE PROGGED LI'S OF -5/CAPE OF 1100 J/KG/NORMALIZED CAPE OF 0.14 M/S2 SUGGESTS STRONG STORMS FOR ANY THAT DEVELOP. ETA AT FULL RES 22-KM SHOWS GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR REDDING AND NORTH 00Z-06Z. 15Z RUC SOUNDINGS SIMILAR TO ETA SHOWING CAP BREAK NEAR 03Z. OLD UPPER LOW PROXIMITY TO THE SIERNEV MAY AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP THERE. LAST NIGHT SAW SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR BLUE CANYON AT 09Z...HOWEVER DYNAMICS ARE LESS FAVORABLE TODAY. KREV SOUNDING SHOWS INCREASES PW'S TO 0.56-IN (UP FROM .39 12Z WED) WHILE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS THERE. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE MARGINAL AT KBLU ETA SOUNDING BUT MODERATE ON THE RUC FORECAST WHICH LIKELY IS MORE ACCURATE GIVEN CURRENT LAPSE RATES IN THE SIERNEV. OTHER CONCERNS IN THE MARINE INTRUSION LAST NIGHT. FORT ORD PROFILE SHOWED DEPTH NEAR 3000 FEET AND 2400 FEET ON KOAK. ARB SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW LEVELS AT RED BLUFF AND LAKEPORT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH ZERO 24H CHANGE IN TEMPS. COOLING IS MOST NOTICEABLE IN THE USUAL PLACES OF GREATER SAC AREA AND DELTA. VIS SAT SHOWS THAT LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE ADVECTED/DEVELOPED IN THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAC VALLEY (SE UPVALLEY LOW LEVEL FLOW) NORTHWARD TO NEAR RED BLUFF AND SCATTERED ON THE EAST SIDE OF SAC. STILL 19KTS AT FAIRFIELD WITH A 2-MB SAC-SFO GRADIENT BUT ONLY 2.3-MB SFO-RNO. KDAX WIND PROFILE INDICATES SHALLOW MARINE LAYER OVER SAC WITH NORTH WIND AT 2000 FEET...SW AT 1000FT. ARB SHOWS MARINE DEPTH NEAR 1500-FT AT SAC. COOLING IN MOTHERLODE SUGGESTS MARINE DEPTH WAS GREATER EARLIER. H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED AT 11C TODAY AND KOAK SHOWS NO 24H CHANGE AT H85. CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER MAXS FOR MARINE AFFECTED AREAS AND PERSISTENT HIGHER TERRAIN LOOK GOOD. NRN SAC VALLEY TEMPS MAY BE A TAD TOO LOW. DIFFICULT TO TELL IF MARINE AIR WILL BE MIXED OUT ELSEWHERE...CURRENT METARS SHOW LITTLE DELTA INFLUENCE IN SAC AT THIS TIME. ETA SUSTAINS 1.5 TO 2-MB SFO-SAC GRADIENT TODAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE DEEPER/FURTHER SOUTH THAT OLD LONG RANGE PROGS FOR THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM. LOOKS LIKE GOOD OMEGA/RH WILL BE HITTING THE COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY AND MOVE INLAND AFFECTING MUCH OF OUR CWA...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AT US-50 CORRIDOR. .STO...NONE TARDY ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1040 AM CST THU MAR 22 2001 OVERRUNNING PCPN CURRENTLY OVER MO CONTINUES TO FLIRT WITH THE SW CORNER OF CEN IL CWA ATTM. BELEIVE SPRINKLE CHC AT BEST FOR THIS AREA TODAY AS SFC RIDGE OVHD CONTINUES TO ERODE THE CLOUD DECK AS IT COMES INTO THE AREA. 15Z RUC LOW LVL RH SHOWS THIS TREND NICELY. CLOUD DECK ASSOC WITH THIS PCPN IS SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF NWRN SECTIONS OF IL. SO LOTS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTN FOR THIS SECTION OF IL. SO WILL UPDATE WORDING OF THE ZONES TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. WILL TAKE A QUICK LOOK AT TEMPS BEFORE SENDING...BUT FORESEE NO CHCS TO THEM. .ILX...NONE. KETCHAM $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE 243 PM CST THU MAR 22 2001 FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP EVENT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FOG TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN THE SHORT TERM...ISALLOBARIC RISE CONTINUES OVER EASTERN SD AND A SHARP TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND RESULTING STRATOCU ARE WORKED ON BY SUN SOUTH OF ABOUT 42N LATITUDE. LOW TOPPED CU IN SE NEB AND SW SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED LATER BY STRATOCU FROM NORTH OR RADIATION FOG. FOG MIGHT BE LOCALLY DENSE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT LOW VISIBILITY TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE SE LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING IN WESTERN NEB AND SFC RIDGE IN IA. 18Z MESOETA AND RUC SUGGEST THAT COOL PUSH WILL BE LIMITED IN SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH THICKEST CLOUDS REMAINING IN THE NORTH. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT THAT STRONG WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AROUND 850 MB LATE TONIGHT WITH BEST MOIST CONVERGENCE AND UPGLIDE NEAR SD BORDER. PRECIP WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER. SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO FREEZING NEAR SD BORDER. AFTER COORD WITH FSD WILL KEEP TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS WARM ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY SLOW OR REVERSE TEMP DROP BY MORNING. BEST LIFT MOVES QUICKLY EAST DURING THE MORNING...BUT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD STILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL MAX OUT EARLY IN THE NW ZONES...BUT WAIT UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS. AVN IS SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT COLD ADVECTION THAN ETA/MESOETA. THE LATTER DO NOT DROP THE CLOSED 5H LOW IN CANADA QUITE AS FAR SOUTH. WILL TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH TO HAVE PLENTY OF PUSH AT LOW LEVELS. OUR AREA IS ESSENTIALLY BARE OF SNOW EXCEPT PATCHES IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO MODIFY. THIS WILL PROBABLY NOT KEEP TEMPS UP MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES ON SATURDAY BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. TEMPS WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE COLD AIR AND THE STRONG SUN WITH CHILLIER AVN MOS PREFERRED HERE. COLD LOWS SAT NIGHT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE IN THE SOUTH. EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEMS. MAIN MRF RUN HAS A MAJOR OPEN GULF SYSTEM BY MIDWEEK...BUT ENSEMBLE IS MORE EQUIVOCAL AND ECMWF IS WEAKER AND OUT OF PHASE. NORTH COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT THE ONLY CERTAINTY IS THAT THE PATTERN LOOKS COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. .OMA...NONE POLLACK ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 220 PM CST THU MAR 22 2001 .FIRST PD... WK MID-LVL DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A FEW SHWRS ACRS THE FAR NRN CWA. SATL AND RADAR HAS BEEN TRACKING THIS SHRTWV FEATURE VERY WELL FROM POINTS WELL UPSTREAM IN MO. USING THE LATEST RUC MDL NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ATMOSPHERE PRETTY DRY IN THE LOWER LVLS SO PCPN SHOULD RMN WDLY SCT BEFORE ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. .LONGER TERM... NEXT FCST CHALLENGE IS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. ETA AND AVN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVG STG CDFNT INTO THE MID-SOUTH AFTER 06Z SAT. NOT MUCH RETURN SFC FLO AND MSTR AHEAD OF THE CDFNT SO DON/T EXPECT A LOT OF PCPN...HOWEVER LGT SHWRS SHOULD DVLP LATE FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACRS THE FORECAST AREA AS A STG BATCH OF STG UPWARD MOTION MOVS THRU. DUE TO THE STG PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL NOT EXPECT MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE HAVE GONE VERY CLOSE TO AVN GUIDANCE. .EXTENDED FCST.. MDLS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT STG TROF DIGGING ACRS THE ERN THIRD OF THE US. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AIRMASS ACRS THE MID-SOUTH THRU DAY 4. WAA PATTERN DVLPS ON TUE AS MODLS MOV ERN TROF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN FLO FROM GULF SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CHC OF PCPN ON TUE. MILDER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS RETURNS ON WED. MRF HAS STG SHRTWV MOVG INTO THE CNTRL US ON DAY 7. WILL INCLUDE TSTMS IN FCST AS DECENT CDFNT APRCHS RGN. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS. MEM 046/073 051/057 003 MKL 042/068 049/053 004 JBR 043/069 049/053 004 TUP 046/073 052/058 003 .MEG...NONE. BELLES tn