FXUS04 KWBC 160731 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004 PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION VALID MAY 17/1200 UTC THRU MAY 18/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR ...PRELIM DAY 1... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD/FLAT TROF WL COVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WITH INCRSG WSWRLY FLOW FM THE WCST THRU THE PLNS INTO THE NERN U.S.. THE SERN U.S. RDG WL REMAIN FLAT...BUT STG. THE SFC BNDRY DRAPED ACRS THE NRN MID ATLC REGION THRU THE APLCHNS AND INTO THE LWR MS VLY WL CONT TO WEAKEN...BUT REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR MOSTLY DIURNAL CNVCTN WITH VRY LITTLE ORGANIZATION LKLY. A SERIES OF STG MIDLVL SHRTWVS RIDG EWD IN THE FAST FLOW FM THE WCST INTO THE PLNS WL STRNGTHN AND SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALNG A BNDRY DRAPED ACRS THE NRN HI PLNS...WITH THE LOW MOVG EWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY BY THE END OF THE PD. MDLS ARE VRY CLS WITH MASS FIELDS AND QPF IS ALSO NOT TOO DIFF. ...MID ATLC TO LWR MS VLY... THE WEAK FNTL BNDRY DRAPED ACRS THE REGION WL REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR MOSTLY DIURNAL CNVCTN AS DEEP MSTR...PWS ARND 1.25 INCHES...REMAINS POOLED ALNG THE BNDRY. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SVRL VRY WEAK SHRTWVS RIDG NEWD AND ARND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SERN U.S. RDG THAT COULD AID WITH SOME ORGANIZATION. MUCH OF THE PCPN SHLD BE SCT AND LGT. THE AVBL MSTR AND XPCD SLOW MOVMENT COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLD 1-2 INCH RN IN A COUPLE OF HRS OVR THE LWR MS VLY. ...SRN HI PLNS... LATEST WV IMAGERY AND MDLS SHOW SVRL PIECES OF MIDLVL ENERGY XPCD TO MOV EWD AND OVR THE LEESIDE TROF THIS AFTN/EVE. MDL SOUNDGS SUPPORT HI BASED CNVCTN THAT SHLD MOV EWD INTO THE EVE HRS. THE ABVL MSTR COULD SUPPORT VRY ISOLD HVY RNS...BUT MOST AREAS WL REMAIN LGT. ...CNTRL/NRN PLNS INTO THE UPR GRT LKS... SVRL PIECES OF ENERGY WL MOV QUICKLY EWD FM THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES AND COMBINE INTO ONE STG VORT ACRS THE NRN PLNS LATER TDA/TNGT. THIS ENERGY WL RIDE OVR A FNTL BNDRY THAT IS DROPG INTO THE REGION AND WL BCM BETTER DEFINED TDA AS COLDER AIR SINKS SWD AND STG WRMG TAKES PLC OVR THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS. INCRSG SRLY FLOW WL BRING GULF MSTR NWD THAT WL POOL ALNG THE FNTL BNDRY (SFC/8H) WITH PWS XPCD TO BUILD TO ARND 1.50 INCHES. THE STG LOLVL FLOW (8H WNDS ARND 40 KTS THIS AFTN AND PSBLY OVR 50 KTS TNGT) WL SUPPORT AN INCRS REGION OF THETA-E ADV OVR THE NRN HI PLNS ERLY TDA THAT WL SPRD EWD AND STRNGTHN TNGT INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. MDLS ALSO SHOW VRY STG 8H CVRG ASSOD WITH THE SLUG OF WAA. THE UPR JET CONFIGURATION WL SUPPORT DVRGENT FLOW AS ENTRNC REGION DYNAMICS PASS OVR THE REGION. THIS SHLD RESULT IN A SWATH OF MOD/HVY RNS ACRS SD TDA AND INTO MN TNGT. MDLS ARE IN STG AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO SO DID NOT MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MID GUID. FARTHER S...INTO NEB...THE MDLS ARE HINTG AT MCS DVLPMENT TNGT AS THE LLJ IS XPCD TO SLOLY VEER TO A WSWRLY DIR WITH ANOTHER REGION OF MSTR POOLG/8H CVRG. THIS AREA WL BE UNDER EVEN MORE FAVORABLE UPR JET DYNAMICS AS AN UPR JET COUPLET WL FORM. MDLS SHOW SOME THICKNS DIFL AND VRY STG 8H MSTR TRNSPRT. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE 8H FLOW NRML TO THE BNDRY TO BOOST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS REGION. BUT...THE AVBL MSTR...LOLVL THERMAL FORCG AND UPR JET DYNAMICS SHLD STILL SUPPORT ISOLD TWO INCH RNS IN SVRL HRS. ...PAC NW... LINGERG LGT/MOD PCPN WL OCCUR OVR THE HIER TERRAIN AS THIS AREA REMAINS UNDER ENERGETIC WRLY FLOW. SVRL PIECES OF MIDLVL SHRTWV ENERGY ARE PROGGED TO MOV OVR THE REGION. WRLY 8H/7H FLOW ERLY TDA SHLD AID WITH LIFT INTO THE WRN FACG HIER TERRAIN...WHILE THE MDLS SHOW A BAND OF 0.50 INCH OR GRTR PWS OVR DAY 2... AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE E-NEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO SRN ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT SLICING SEWD SHOULD TOUCH OFF CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT...WHILE OVERRUNNING RAINFALL WILL BE THE RULE FROM WI THROUGH MI. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST IN THE WARM SECTOR THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTRMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS. IN THE WEST...UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER OR/NRN CA BY FHR 60. PREFERRED THE SLIGHTLY WETTER GFS AS ITS QPF SEEMS TO BETTER MATCH THE IDEA OF A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. ECKERT/MAUSSER GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 17/12Z 0.01 513242 511237 509231 505218 500209 495206 492199 490196 485196 483200 478203 471210 470218 472222 475223 480222 484222 488224 492229 496240 498242 502239 507243 510244 513242 0.01 495872 495861 494853 489844 486839 482837 476839 472840 468843 461854 455866 448877 441892 439903 433915 432921 430926 424934 414943 410947 406954 403965 399978 396983 393987 384995 381999 377002 374004 368004 361005 354009 348011 343016 337021 326028 321036 323040 326041 327045 326048 330051 333054 340054 349051 352050 354052 358056 363054 367051 370048 372044 375038 378035 384034 394027 399025 405025 410026 412029 415047 418052 423059 430064 431073 436079 439082 440085 438087 435088 430084 427084 424086 423092 425097 425100 422103 421110 417114 409113 407114 408118 412123 417129 418144 422143 423141 425137 428128 431124 434120 437120 440125 440131 442137 446144 447150 449159 454164 458168 463170 469170 488183 496185 501182 503179 503175 500168 496163 493157 496155 500154 495147 492140 487134 480128 475123 474120 475115 477111 479103 477093 474088 468085 465081 466071 467060 470042 470031 471021 471003 473996 473986 478960 479952 481944 485926 489911 493900 494896 494891 494886 495872 0.01 479243 480239 479236 478234 476232 474233 473233 472237 475241 477243 478243 479243 0.01 424696 422692 418693 414696 410700 402714 399718 397722 391730 384736 381739 380742 376750 373758 367772 361788 354804 352810 349819 342831 337838 329843 321842 316839 310837 306839 306843 308851 310857 317862 320866 319872 317877 312881 310882 293888 287893 284898 283908 283913 285918 289924 292927 292932 291939 290947 292961 293966 295967 299963 303956 306949 311935 317923 342902 347897 352890 358877 363864 375838 389779 391772 394764 397756 401750 407730 410723 414719 417714 421706 424700 424696 0.01 291822 288816 284809 279807 274805 268805 260806 258809 258812 261817 266822 272825 278827 284826 287825 291822 291822 0.25 486894 487886 486879 482868 478864 473863 468866 464871 459877 455884 450894 446903 440918 436927 431936 420947 414953 410962 405979 400989 399994 399997 401000 405005 415004 421003 424007 428015 437029 440032 444034 449043 452046 457046 460043 461039 462033 461026 460013 461004 463994 467983 470974 473952 475941 478928 482909 486894 0.25 472154 471149 471148 469145 468144 466140 465139 463136 463135 460135 459139 459143 459148 460152 461154 463157 464158 467159 470158 472154 0.25 462110 462106 461105 458102 458101 456100 453098 450097 449097 447098 446101 447101 449105 448109 449111 451113 452114 455118 457122 458123 458122 459118 461114 462110 0.25 374791 377788 379787 379791 374797 371798 374791 0.25 362817 358818 356821 353824 350829 347834 346838 345842 347848 351848 353845 355842 357837 358830 359826 361821 362817 0.25 341888 345880 349873 353864 354858 353856 351856 348858 346863 342872 338878 333885 326889 320893 310896 301900 294904 293908 294913 297916 299921 301924 305925 311919 316914 321908 333896 338891 341888 0.25 344034 343033 340033 338034 340036 343035 344034 0.50 484890 483884 481878 476872 471874 467878 462885 454898 445916 441930 436939 429945 423950 418955 413963 410970 406985 404992 407995 411999 416997 420990 424985 431980 438981 440985 440991 439000 435004 434011 437020 440024 444027 450031 453027 454020 454007 456001 459989 463981 468967 474933 483893 484890 0.50 468153 468152 466149 465147 464148 464153 467153 468153 0.50 308904 303907 301911 301913 302916 304917 309915 314910 316906 315903 313903 308904 1.00 478893 476887 474885 471886 467890 458906 454914 450923 445942 443963 442974 444982 449986 454983 459972 464960 468936 472916 475906 477895 478893 1.00 426978 430971 433965 432958 428955 423956 417964 415968 413972 411979 412982 412987 415989 418988 420985 423982 426978 1.50 472899 471894 467901 460912 455924 452929 450936 449947 447962 446970 446978 449979 455974 460960 461954 464940 466934 467924 469909 472899 2.00 425966 424964 422966 419971 422972 423970 425967 425966 24HR QP VT 18/12Z 0.01 507870 520824 532763 529714 520678 511665 503661 487675 472706 463725 455738 448746 444734 447721 451706 451696 442693 425699 410708 397717 382741 367760 355774 349785 346796 342806 338811 328817 316824 310828 303831 298836 296840 294847 294854 293870 292885 289901 286912 282921 277933 273945 273952 274956 276959 284962 290964 296965 304965 310965 315963 326957 334950 343941 350932 360920 370910 385893 392890 392894 391901 389915 387929 385947 383955 380959 378966 381971 383976 383981 383988 382991 382003 382013 382028 385032 388036 394041 398041 400037 406026 408021 410016 412007 415989 417981 420978 422978 429979 437979 447978 453975 458972 464966 469961 478950 486938 491929 493923 499903 504882 507870 0.01 503192 505172 506160 506150 504139 501132 497126 492121 487117 486110 485098 483092 482089 479085 473085 470087 468090 464096 457066 452049 446035 443030 440029 437031 433036 428038 415043 410047 407050 404051 397053 394054 391057 391062 394067 398072 403076 410078 411082 411087 409095 407100 407111 408120 409127 411136 415142 419142 422143 427147 434158 435161 435167 430171 425175 421182 416191 413196 408201 405208 403218 402228 402235 404242 406247 411251 418253 424254 430252 441247 452243 457243 464244 480248 484244 488237 492228 496215 500201 503192 0.01 283812 282804 278799 274797 268795 259796 253795 248796 245799 240804 239808 239813 245823 252821 260824 265825 272825 277821 278817 282814 283812 0.25 508733 508728 507723 504720 499719 493723 483732 477740 473746 462768 449791 434811 426823 420834 417844 413855 409868 408875 407884 405892 401904 398917 395933 394945 395954 395962 397967 400969 405966 412955 416947 420943 427941 431940 434937 438933 447924 461907 479888 487879 494868 499853 503837 506824 508810 508793 508774 506761 507751 508733 0.25 470218 466214 461211 450211 443198 439196 435195 433196 424204 420209 416215 414221 414229 417235 422238 434238 438236 444232 447229 453226 463223 467221 470218 0.25 409762 409758 407754 405752 400747 395748 389752 385756 381762 379768 376778 371788 362810 356819 350827 347834 348837 352840 347842 343841 338842 326848 321852 318856 316861 316870 322878 321884 320889 314901 307909 302915 300920 298925 298932 300940 303943 310944 315942 320941 328934 335926 342915 351898 354892 358888 367880 375875 384866 388861 390855 392849 394842 395832 398820 400806 402792 405785 407777 409762 0.50 481791 489780 492764 490751 483757 476765 469779 465784 464791 469793 481791 0.50 455863 445884 431898 428915 433918 447903 463888 477873 491848 497820 490805 478818 467841 455863 0.50 432856 432847 428846 424852 418864 418871 422870 428864 432856 0.50 439226 441223 439220 437218 436217 434215 431214 428215 425218 425221 424222 423226 423230 426232 428233 431233 433233 435232 437230 438227 439226 0.50 390800 390796 389793 388789 386789 383789 381792 380794 379796 378798 377800 377803 376807 376808 377810 379813 381814 384814 386811 387809 388807 389805 390801 390800 0.50 399927 400935 403941 409941 414929 415916 415909 412899 408901 403912 402916 400921 399927 $$