AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 920 PM EST WED DEC 26 2001 WE HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE FREEZING MARK HERE AT THE AIRPORT AND LOCAL METARS INDICATE MUCH OF THE REMAINING CWFA IS ALREADY NEAR FREEZING. SATELLITE INDICATES CLEAR SKIES AS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS UPSTREAM HAVE DISSIPATED AND CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE REMAINING N OF THE CWFA. FREEZE/HARD FREEZE WARNING LOOKS ON TRACK. MARINE: BUOYS SHOW WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING AT SCEC LEVELS. PER 27/00Z RUC...EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN OVER THE WATERS AS THE WEAK LOW OVER OUR WRN WATERS TRACKS E. WILL MENTION EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OUTER WATERS...BUT SUSPECT MORNING UPDATE WILL BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS WORDING. .TLH... .AL...FREEZE WARNING ALZ065>069. .GA...HARD FREEZE WARNING GAZ0120>131-142>148-155>161. .FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FLZ007>019-026>029-034 EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. RED FLAG WARNING THU ALL INLAND ZONES. FIRE WEATHER WATCH THU ALL COASTAL ZONES. TJT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 751 PM MST WED DEC 26 2001 CURRENT WINDS ARE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. RUC IS CATCHING THIS NICELY... AND THEN SHIFTS DIR TO N TO NW LATER ON TONIGHT. BASED ON OBS UPSTREAM AND PROFILERS...WL HAVE SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH AT LEAST. WL ADJUST ALL ZONES BASED ON ABV. REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD. .GLD...NONE. BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 322 PM CST WED DEC 26 2001 DAYS 1-2... BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST. THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY THROUGH THE FRIDAY PERIOD, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH A LOW TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST, RANGING FROM 15 IN THE HAYS AREA TO NEAR 23 IN THE ELKHART ZONE. THE LATEST SURFACE PLOT FROM 20Z SHOWED DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS 22 IN HYS (FLOW OFF OF SNOWPACK) TO 12 AT BOTH DODGE AND GARDEN. AS WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DRYING OUT AT THE SURFACE. COMPARISON OF RUC/NGM/ETA/AVN MODELS WAS SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR AT THE 12Z INITIALIZATION PERIOD. THE NGM STARTS WARMING THINGS UP THE QUICKEST, AND KEEPS THE SURFACE WARM EVEN DURING THE NIGHT PERIODS. THE ETA AND AVN ARE COMPARABLE WITH THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN, AND CLOSE ON WIND DIRECTION. THE AVN HAS ABOUT 5 KNOTS STRONGER WIND SPEEDS, AND THINK THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. FOR THURSDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD PERSIST AND ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE AFFECT. THINK THE WARMEST ZONES WILL BE NEAR OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE LOW 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST, WITH WEAK SNOW COVER STILL HAVING A SLIGHT INFLUENCE. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS SIMILAR TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST, WITH PERHAPS LIGHTER WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. NO POPS FOR NOW, EVEN INTO LATE FRIDAY. THINK THERE WILL BE AN UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOP WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THE LOWER LAYERS FROM THE WEST BACK TO THE EAST. UPPER SUPPORT APPEARS TO LAG BEHIND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW, SO WILL LEAVE INTRO OF SNOW CHANCES TO THE EXTENDED PACKAGE. DAYS 3-7... AS ANOTHER REENFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND SEVERAL S/W TROFS, LOCATED OUT IN THE PACIFIC, WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WRN CONUS RIDGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS REMAINING CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THIS AND BRINGS OUR FIRST WAVE ACROSS ERN CO INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TX/OK FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT WAVE WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN KS SUNDAY AS MID LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENS OVER OUR AREA FROM THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR. WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE PRECEDING OUR FIRST PACIFIC WAVE...MID LVL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT SOME -SN IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF EACH VORT LOBE, ESPECIALLY THE W/SW. CLOUD COVER ON SAT WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES TRICKY, WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON SAT. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO FMR, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS SO FAR THIS WINTER WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO KEEP SKIES CLOUDY AND A CHANCE OF -SN. IN THE LATER PERIODS CONFIDENCE LEVEL DECREASES RAPIDLY. THE INCREASING AAM AND STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC SUGGESTING A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING FOR THE WRN CONUS WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS, THEY STILL BRING A ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE POSSIBLE WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER EXTENDED MODELS SOLUTION. PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST. DDC 020/047 020/048 017 000 GCK 019/047 020/048 018 000 EHA 022/053 022/050 021 000 LBL 021/052 022/049 020 000 HYS 015/045 018/046 012 000 P28 021/050 022/050 019 000 .DDC...NONE. BURKE/BURGERT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED ZFP SE NEW ENG COAST.. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1158 AM EST WED DEC 26 2001 ...UPDATE TO LIMIT SN AND CLOUDS TO CSTL SECTIONS. HAVE RELUCANTLY LEFT WXA IN MA22-23. DROPPED FLURRIES THIS EVENING OVR INTERIORS. CORRECTED MNTN OF POPS WITH FLURRIES WHERE NEEED. ...PRVS DISC PER DRAG... ZFP UPDATED FOR ALREADY ONGOING SNOW BID-HYA. RDF BASICALLY OK AND NO CHG. SYSTEM MAY BE PROGRESSING FASTER THAN FIRST FCST... 09Z RUC CONTS BRINGING THIS SYSTEM UP I95 THIS AFTN SO WHILE WE PULSE ONE QPF EVENT THRU SE NEW ENG THIS MORNING...IT SHUD QUIT IN RI AND THEN REDEVELOP NNEWD MIDDAY. SYSTEM STILL HAS PRES FALLS AT 12Z W AND S OF ITS 12Z PSN (BACK TO THE NJ COAST IN WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A DIURNAL RISE TIME SO ITS BECOMING A BIGGER STORM SYSTEM AS MODELED). LOW POSIT AT 12Z SHUD B ABOUT 80 S OF HOTEL. WE HAVE A SHIP W RAIN NR FIRE ISLAND BUOY BUT UNSURE WHETHER ITS PLOTTED CORRECTLY. SO EXPECT FURTHER DVLPT AND FCST CONTS AS WRITTEN. CONF ON HOW THIS UNFOLDS IS 60-70 PCT. DID NOT LIKE THE 06Z MODEL TREND AND OVERALL RADAR LOOK BUT ONCOMING WV DRY SPOT MARKING THE VT MAX SHOULD PRODUCE NEW PCPN DVLPMT SHORTLY OFF THE NJ COAST. MODELS: 06Z AVN/ETA MODELS TENDED TO SHIFT EAST. RATHER THAN OVERDO SNOWFALL...KEPT IT TRIM WITH PRIMARY FOCUS FMH-MVY. STILL CONCERNED BY ALREADY 1004MB LOW E OF HAT AND LARGE NE-E GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE SNE WATERS. MAY HAVE TRUSTED THE MODELS TOO MUCH TOO FAR E SWING FROM 06Z. IF 06Z EWD MODEL TREND IS CORRECT...PROB MAINLY SNOW HYA REGION AND MIX/RS ACK WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS. NOT CONFIDENT OF THIS ATTM BASED ON 11Z DATA. PTYPE: DUE TO WARM SST AFFECTING BL PCPN IN LIGHT PHASES MAY B RAIN BUT THERE SHOULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY PCPN AND WHEN THIS OCCURS...IT TURNS TO STICKING SNOW AND VSBY SHOULD DROP TO 1/4 OR 1/2MI FOR AT LEAST A FEW MINUTES SOMEWHERE ACK-CQX FMH TDY. MODELS SIMILAR WITH BOX/HPC/MPC AGREEMENT (SEE QPFPFD/HSD MIMATN) ON WWD TRACK OF AVN BEING MORE LIKELY TO VERIFY. WE WILL SEE WHAT THE FINAL RESULT IS BUT PER THE GEMR AND GEMG HEAVIER QPF VS ETA/AVN LESS. NOW: WHILE THERE IS A LEAD SHORT WAVE GETTING EVERYTHING PRIMED EARLY THIS MORNING... QPF AND CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP MORE NNE THIS AFTN AS PRIMARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON 11Z WV IMAGERY AT THE BASE OF THE TROF IN MS/AL GETS READY TO HEAD UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING THAT WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO S NH...NW 1/3 MA AND NW 1/4 CT THIS MORNING WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND AS UVM DVLPS...INCLUDING LOTS OF MID DECK CLOUD. ALSO EXPECT THE FIRST PIECE OF QPF THIS MORNING FM BID TO CC TO BRIEFLY BREAK THEN REFILL THIS AFTN. QPF: THIS FCSTR USED THE 06Z ETA .01 FOR CATEGORICAL 80 PCT WITH AVN .10 A 100 PCT POP. GWAVE: THERE IS CONSIDERABLE PVA/PIVA TODAY IN SNE AND A 150-160 KT 3H JET CORE MOVING INTO THE INFLECTION PT OF THE 3H RDG HAS ME WONDERING ABOUT A GWAVE THIS AFTN/EVE WHICH MAY ALREADY BE HINTED AT IN THE MODEL UVM FIELDS. GWAVE MODULATES QPF INTENSITY. IN THIS CASE WOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR W2X1/4S+ AND GUSTY WIND TO 30 KTS FROM SEEMINGLY NOWHERE. SUSPECT IF THIS WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD BE CQX OR ACK REGION LATE TODAY WITH ASSTD SHORT TERM PPP FALL/RISE COUPLET. CAPE COD: FCST SOUNDING ABV FREEZING LOWEST 600-1200 FT CQX-ACK AND THINKING RAIN MIXES IN AT TIMES. MOSTLY SNOW FMH REGION. SUBTLE 100 FT ELEVATIONS AND PROXIMITY TO BL TEMP OF 4C ALONG THE WATER WILL DETERMINE SNOW/RAIN DESPITE VERY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS. BLV ODDS FAVOR ACK MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTN. LARGE SNOW RANGE CC AND MVY DUE TO MELTING/MIX/TRACK UNCERTAINTY AND ADVY FOR FIRST SLIPPERY EVENT THERE OF THE YEAR. LES: WILL WRAP IT IP ON CC ARD 03-06Z TONIGHT! LR: LITTLE THIS MORNING...OTHER THAN TO NOTE THE PERSISTENTLY AND EVER COLDER PATTERN CONTS. NO ENS AND LR VIEWING TODAY. BRIEF "NEAR NORMAL" TEMP INTERLUDES WILL OCCUR AHD OF FLURRY ACCOMPANIED CFP'S. LES TRAILERS FM GTLKS INTO SNE AT TIMES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FA...THESE DEPENDENT ON THE 8H-BL WIND FIELD. LIKEWISE 8H-BL WIND WILL GOVERN LES FOR PORTIONS OF CC AND ACK (IE NOT ONLY NW AND N APPROACHES BUT ALSO SW WIND APPROACHES TO S COAST AND ACK). .BOX...WXA MA 22-23. SCA MAY BE RQD TNGT PVC-MTK OUTER WATERS. SCA MAY BE REQD THURSDAY REMAINDER OF THE CW WATERS EXCEPT FOR BOS HRB/NARR BAY. DRAG ma AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED ZFP SE NEW ENG COAST.. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 748 AM EST WED DEC 26 2001 ...CONTINUITY OF FCST FROM LAST EVENING... ZFP UPDATED FOR ALREADY ONGOING SNOW BID-HYA. RDF BASICALLY OK AND NO CHG. SYSTEM MAY BE PROGRESSING FASTER THAN FIRST FCST... 09Z RUC CONTS BRINGING THIS SYSTEM UP I95 THIS AFTN SO WHILE WE PULSE ONE QPF EVENT THRU SE NEW ENG THIS MORNING...IT SHUD QUIT IN RI AND THEN REDEVELOP NNEWD MIDDAY. SYSTEM STILL HAS PRES FALLS AT 12Z W AND S OF ITS 12Z PSN (BACK TO THE NJ COAST IN WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A DIURNAL RISE TIME SO ITS BECOMING A BIGGER STORM SYSTEM AS MODELED). LOW POSIT AT 12Z SHUD B ABOUT 80 S OF HOTEL. WE HAVE A SHIP W RAIN NR FIRE ISLAND BUOY BUT UNSURE WHETHER ITS PLOTTED CORRECTLY. SO EXPECT FURTHER DVLPT AND FCST CONTS AS WRITTEN. CONF ON HOW THIS UNFOLDS IS 60-70 PCT. DID NOT LIKE THE 06Z MODEL TREND AND OVERALL RADAR LOOK BUT ONCOMING WV DRY SPOT MARKING THE VT MAX SHOULD PRODUCE NEW PCPN DVLPMT SHORTLY OFF THE NJ COAST. MODELS: 06Z AVN/ETA MODELS TENDED TO SHIFT EAST. RATHER THAN OVERDO SNOWFALL...KEPT IT TRIM WITH PRIMARY FOCUS FMH-MVY. STILL CONCERNED BY ALREADY 1004MB LOW E OF HAT AND LARGE NE-E GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE SNE WATERS. MAY HAVE TRUSTED THE MODELS TOO MUCH TOO FAR E SWING FROM 06Z. IF 06Z EWD MODEL TREND IS CORRECT...PROB MAINLY SNOW HYA REGION AND MIX/RS ACK WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS. NOT CONFIDENT OF THIS ATTM BASED ON 11Z DATA. PTYPE: DUE TO WARM SST AFFECTING BL PCPN IN LIGHT PHASES MAY B RAIN BUT THERE SHOULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY PCPN AND WHEN THIS OCCURS...IT TURNS TO STICKING SNOW AND VSBY SHOULD DROP TO 1/4 OR 1/2MI FOR AT LEAST A FEW MINUTES SOMEWHERE ACK-CQX FMH TDY. MODELS SIMILAR WITH BOX/HPC/MPC AGREEMENT (SEE QPFPFD/HSD MIMATN) ON WWD TRACK OF AVN BEING MORE LIKELY TO VERIFY. WE WILL SEE WHAT THE FINAL RESULT IS BUT PER THE GEMR AND GEMG HEAVIER QPF VS ETA/AVN LESS. NOW: WHILE THERE IS A LEAD SHORT WAVE GETTING EVERYTHING PRIMED EARLY THIS MORNING... QPF AND CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP MORE NNE THIS AFTN AS PRIMARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON 11Z WV IMAGERY AT THE BASE OF THE TROF IN MS/AL GETS READY TO HEAD UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING THAT WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO S NH...NW 1/3 MA AND NW 1/4 CT THIS MORNING WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND AS UVM DVLPS...INCLUDING LOTS OF MID DECK CLOUD. ALSO EXPECT THE FIRST PIECE OF QPF THIS MORNING FM BID TO CC TO BRIEFLY BREAK THEN REFILL THIS AFTN. QPF: THIS FCSTR USED THE 06Z ETA .01 FOR CATEGORICAL 80 PCT WITH AVN .10 A 100 PCT POP. GWAVE: THERE IS CONSIDERABLE PVA/PIVA TODAY IN SNE AND A 150-160 KT 3H JET CORE MOVING INTO THE INFLECTION PT OF THE 3H RDG HAS ME WONDERING ABOUT A GWAVE THIS AFTN/EVE WHICH MAY ALREADY BE HINTED AT IN THE MODEL UVM FIELDS. GWAVE MODULATES QPF INTENSITY. IN THIS CASE WOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR W2X1/4S+ AND GUSTY WIND TO 30 KTS FROM SEEMINGLY NOWHERE. SUSPECT IF THIS WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD BE CQX OR ACK REGION LATE TODAY WITH ASSTD SHORT TERM PPP FALL/RISE COUPLET. CAPE COD: FCST SOUNDING ABV FREEZING LOWEST 600-1200 FT CQX-ACK AND THINKING RAIN MIXES IN AT TIMES. MOSTLY SNOW FMH REGION. SUBTLE 100 FT ELEVATIONS AND PROXIMITY TO BL TEMP OF 4C ALONG THE WATER WILL DETERMINE SNOW/RAIN DESPITE VERY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS. BLV ODDS FAVOR ACK MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTN. LARGE SNOW RANGE CC AND MVY DUE TO MELTING/MIX/TRACK UNCERTAINTY AND ADVY FOR FIRST SLIPPERY EVENT THERE OF THE YEAR. LES: WILL WRAP IT IP ON CC ARD 03-06Z TONIGHT! LR: LITTLE THIS MORNING...OTHER THAN TO NOTE THE PERSISTENTLY AND EVER COLDER PATTERN CONTS. NO ENS AND LR VIEWING TODAY. BRIEF "NEAR NORMAL" TEMP INTERLUDES WILL OCCUR AHD OF FLURRY ACCOMPANIED CFP'S. LES TRAILERS FM GTLKS INTO SNE AT TIMES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FA...THESE DEPENDENT ON THE 8H-BL WIND FIELD. LIKEWISE 8H-BL WIND WILL GOVERN LES FOR PORTIONS OF CC AND ACK (IE NOT ONLY NW AND N APPROACHES BUT ALSO SW WIND APPROACHES TO S COAST AND ACK). .BOX...WXA MA 22-23. SCA MAY BE RQD TNGT PVC-MTK OUTER WATERS AND REMAINDER THE CW WATERS THURSDAY EXCEPT NONE THIS 36 HR PRD FOR BOS HARB/NARR BAY. DRAG ma AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1045 PM EST WED DEC 26 2001 MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT AGAIN ARE LES TRENDS. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED H5 LO JUST NE OF LK SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS WERE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN...ETA/RUC FCST OF AREA 850-500 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SW FLANK OF THE LO WAS CONSISTENT WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR FROM -25C TO -35C DEPICTED BY IR LOOP. QG FORCING ALSO SUPPORTED LARGE AREA OF -SN OR FLURRIES OVER INTERIOR WEST/CNTRL UPR MI AND NRN WI NOT FAVORED BY WNW FLOW FROM LK SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC...TROF EXTENDED FROM LO OVER NE LK SUPERIOR NEAR WAWA TOWARD THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW INTO WEST CTNRL LK SUPERIOR. ETA HAS HAD REASONABLE GRASP OF THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED LLVL WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. 00Z ETA FCST BEST 950 CONVERGENCE PERSISTING FROM NEAR ONTONAGON EAST TO SOUTH CNTRL HOUGHTON COUNTY. UPSTREAM AND H8 WINDS (DEVILS ISLAND) HAVE ALSO VEERED ENOUGH (TO 310) TO BRING HEAVIER SNOW BACK TOWARD KIWD. LK-H8 DELTA/T REMAINS NEAR 19C AND PLENTIFUL MOISUTRE REMAINS TO 700 MB WITH INVERION HGTS ABV 8K FT. SO...WL KEEP 2-6 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GOING OVERNIGHT FOR THE WEST WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM NEAR THE PORCUPINES TO ROCKLAND...TWIN LAKES AND ALSTON. FARTHER EAST...KMQT 88D SHOWED WEST TO EAST BAND REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE PICTURE ROCKS TO WHITEFISH POINT. ETA KEEPS THE BEST 950 CONVERGENCE JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD SAG CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POSSIBILITY OF OCNLY HEAVY SHSN NEAR THE LAKESHORE EAST OF MUNISING AFT 06Z. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD STILL SEE OCNL -SN OF FLURRIES TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT AS QG SUPPORT WANES AS QDIV TAKES OVER. .MQT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MIZ001>003-009. ...WINTER STORM WATCH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT MIZ006-007 AND NRN MIZ014. JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 345 PM CST WED DEC 26 2001 QUESTION OF -SN MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. KMPX VCP 32 CONTINUING TO SHOW SCT TO NUMEROUS RETURNS OF 10 TO 20 DBZ WITH ISOLATED 20 TO 25 DBZ...AS A RESULT OF WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NOTED ON LATEST RUC 280 THETA SFC. VISIBLITIES HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN LAST SEVERAL HOURS SO WL CONT DECREASING TREND THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN EASTERN MN CWA...AND LATER IN EVE IN WI. S/W CIRCULATION SAGGING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD OVER EAST CENTRAL ND INTO SD NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN FALLING ACRS THIS AREA SO MID LEVEL SATURATION TAKING PLACE BUT YET TO SEE SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND...ASSOCD WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING. A FEW FLURRIES UPSTREAM IN SRN CANADA IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. ETA OVERDID PRECIP AT 18Z AND MOST LIKELY CONTINUES INTO THIS EVE. WILL PULL BACK ON MENTIONING ACCUMULATIONS AND LWR POPS SLIGHTLY...PER COORD WITH FSD. FORCING ASSOCD WITH S/W RAPIDLY SAGS SWD TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE LIKELY RESULTING IN PARTIAL CLEARING IN PARTS OF CWA LATER TNGT. OTHERWISE...POLAR VORTEX REMAINS ENTRENCHED BETWEEN GREAT LAKES AND JAMES BAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT N TO NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. NEXT SPOKE OF S/W VORTICITY EXPCD TO ROTATE AROUND LOW THURSDAY NGT INTO FRI WITH 85H TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -20 FOR FRI INTO SAT. WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND WINDS...WL RAISE GUIDANCE TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN LTR PDS WITH COLDEST READINGS LKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO RGN. SLIGHT WARMUP FOR NEW YEARS NOW APPEARS DELAYED SEVERAL DAYS AS LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING/EXITING CANADIAN POLAR VORTEX SWINGS THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUE INTO WED. HOWEVER SIGNS ARE THERE FOR SLIGHT WARMUP LATER IN THE WEEK AS BLOCKING NORTHERN CANADIAN HIGH FORECAST TO WEAKEN. LATEST EXTENDED CANADIAN GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH MRF ON DELAYING WARMUP. 5H ENSEMBLE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY AT 144 HOURS AS TREND TWD SLIGHT WARMUP BEGINS. .MSP...NONE. KAVINSKY mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1035 AM CST WED DEC 26 2001 EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TIED INTO WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NOTED ON 280 THETA SURFACE OFF LATEST RUC40 GUIDANCE. VSBYS DECREASING TO 1 TO 2 MILES AT TIMES. UPGLIDE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO MID AFTERNOON OVER ERN MN/WRN WI SO MAINLY SCT FLURRIES EXPCTD BY SUNSET. MAY BE SOME LGT ACCUMULATION AS DRY SNOW TENDS TO PILE UP RATHER THAN SETTLE. OTHER CONCERN IS RATHER VIGOROUS S/W TROUGH SAGGING SWD OVR MAN. CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVR WESTERN LAKE WINNIPEG. 170 METER 5H HEIGHT FALLS NOTED AT CYQD AT 12Z. ATTM...MID LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING BUT QUITE A BIT OF LOWER LEVEL RH SHOULD ADD FORCING AND EVENTUAL SATURATION. STILL EXPC AREAS OF -SN TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL/SWRN MN LTR THIS AFTN AND EVE...RESULTING IN QUICK 2 TO 5 HR BURST. BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN PERIPHERY COUNTIES FROM KDXX TO KFRM. .MSP...NONE. KAVINSKY mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 920 PM MST WED DEC 26 2001 LATEST RUC2 OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT SNOW SHOWERS WON'T BREAK OUT IN NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TILL AFTER SUNRISE. ADJUSTED ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. 38 .ABQ...NONE. nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TODAY FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1103 AM EST WED DEC 26 2001 WE WILL DO YET ANOTHER UPDATE TO CLEAN THINGS UP A BIT...SUNNY ALL ZONES...EXCEPT FAR EAST. WILL UP TEMPS THIS TIME BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. .......................PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.................. LOOK AT THE 12Z RUNS SHOWS THAT TODAY...LOOK AT 06Z AND 00Z MODEL RUNS GIVES LITTLE ASSISTANCE TO THE CURRENT SITUATION. SNOW DEVELOPED IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT CURRENTLY RUNS FROM OCEAN CITY, MD TO BLOCK ISLAND AND THEN ACROSS CAPE COD. BASED ON SATELLITE...EXPECT ONLY FAR EASTERN LI TO GET A FLURRY FROM THIS. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS SCT-BKN MID CLOUD...BUT DON'T EXPECT ANY OF THIS TO PRODUCE PCPN THAT MAKES IT TO THE GROUND. WHILE THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE THE PAST HOUR...EXPECT THEM TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATE LOW TO BOMB SE OF THE CAPE. RUC INDICATES THAT MEASURABLE PCPN MAKES IT BACK THROUGH THE TWIN FORKS. WHILE SW-- MAY DEVELOP WITH ANOTHER DEFORMATION ZONE...HAVE TO DISCOUNT IT BASED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS CURRENTLY SEEN. LAMP INDICATING WARMER HIGHS...BUT CURRENT TRENDS ARE BELOW LAMP TEMPS. THUS WILL KEEP CURRENT FCST. EXPECT UPDATED PRODUCTS BY 930. ******************PREVIOUS DISCUSSION********************* ONCE LOW PRES MOVS TO OUR N (ARND 03Z) SKIES WILL CLR OUT FAIRLY FAST. WILL GO WITH A M/CLR FCST. LITTLE CLIPPER TRIES TO MOV INTO THE RGN DURING THU AFTN HOURS. SOME DECENT CAA WILL ALSO BE WITH IT AND THE LATEST BUFKIT DATA INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW GROWTH AT THE H7 MB LVL AND DOWN TO ARND H8. MODELS ALSO HAVE A SHOT OF VORT THAT WILL MOV IN AND WITH ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS THERE SHOULD BE SOME SNOW FLURRIES WITH IT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF REAL MOIST SO THE RGN WILL ONLY GET THE FLURRIES. MARINE...QUITE FOR NOW...BUT WINDS SHOULD START TO SOME UP DURING THU AFTN. WILL MENTION SMALL CRAFT MAY BE NEEDED FOR OUR CSTL ZNS. TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE AVN SOLN WITH THIS PACKAGE. YSTD TEMPS WERE A COUPLE OF DEGS COOLER THAN THE NGM HAD. AVN DID A BETTER JOB ON THOSE. .OKX... CT...NONE. NJ...NONE. NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED THURSDAY ANZ350-353-355. $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TODAY FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 850 AM EST WED DEC 26 2001 TODAY...LOOK AT 06Z AND 00Z MODEL RUNS GIVES LITTLE ASSISTANCE TO THE CURRENT SITUATION. SNOW DEVELOPED IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT CURRENTLY RUNS FROM OCEAN CITY, MD TO BLOCK ISLAND AND THEN ACROSS CAPE COD. BASED ON SATELLITE...EXPECT ONLY FAR EASTERN LI TO GET A FLURRY FROM THIS. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS SCT-BKN MID CLOUD...BUT DON'T EXPECT ANY OF THIS TO PRODUCE PCPN THAT MAKES IT TO THE GROUND. WHILE THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE THE PAST HOUR...EXPECT THEM TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATE LOW TO BOMB SE OF THE CAPE. RUC INDICATES THAT MEASURABLE PCPN MAKES IT BACK THROUGH THE TWIN FORKS. WHILE MAY DEVELOP WITH ANOTHER DEFORMATION ZONE...HAVE TO DISCOUNT IT BASED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS CURRENTLY SEEN. LAMP INDICATING WARMER HIGHS...BUT CURRENT TRENDS ARE BELOW LAMP TEMPS. THUS WILL KEEP CURRENT FCST. EXPECT UPDATED PRODUCTS BY 930. ******************PREVIOUS DISCUSSION********************* ONCE LOW PRES MOVS TO OUR N (ARND 03Z) SKIES WILL CLR OUT FAIRLY FAST. WILL GO WITH A M/CLR FCST. LITTLE CLIPPER TRIES TO MOV INTO THE RGN DURING THU AFTN HOURS. SOME DECENT CAA WILL ALSO BE WITH IT AND THE LATEST BUFKIT DATA INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW GROWTH AT THE H7 MB LVL AND DOWN TO ARND H8. MODELS ALSO HAVE A SHOT OF VORT THAT WILL MOV IN AND WITH ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS THERE SHOULD BE SOME SNOW FLURRIES WITH IT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF REAL MOIST SO THE RGN WILL ONLY GET THE FLURRIES. MARINE...QUITE FOR NOW...BUT WINDS SHOULD START TO SOME UP DURING THU AFTN. WILL MENTION SMALL CRAFT MAY BE NEEDED FOR OUR CSTL ZNS. TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE AVN SOLN WITH THIS PACKAGE. YSTD TEMPS WERE A COUPLE OF DEGS COOLER THAN THE NGM HAD. AVN DID A BETTER JOB ON THOSE. .OKX... CT...NONE. NJ...NONE. NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 845 PM CST WED DEC 26 2001 WINDS HOLD THE KEY TO TONIGHT'S TEMP FCST. GRADIENT A LTL TIGHTER TONIGHT, WITH WEST WINDS HOLDING IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE SO FAR IN MOST AREAS. DWPTS ARE STILL QUITE LOW, AVERAGING 14 TO 20 DEGS ACROSS OUR FA, AND LATEST RUC SHOWS SFC DWPTS REMAINING PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED THROUGH 12Z. AS LONG AS WINDS HOLD UP, MIN TEMPS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN CURRENT ZFP PROJECTIONS (IN LOWER 20S). HOWEVER, LATEST AWOS REPORTS FROM TULLAHOMA, FAYETTEVILLE AND LEWISBURG SHOW CALM WINDS AND TEMPS ALREADY DOWN TO 25 TO 28 DEGS. SMYRNA HAD 23 DEGREES. THUS, MAY INTRODUCE AN OVERNIGHT TEMP GROUP FOR LOW LYING AREAS TO ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PROTECTED LOW AREAS WHERE WINDS STAY NEAR CALM. BLV THE PTCLDY FCST IDEA IS STILL GOOD OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WHEN ONE CONSIDERS THE MID-HI LVL CLOUDS RACING SEWD OUT OF MO AT 45 MPH. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE. .BNA...NONE. 19 tn SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO 202 AM MST THU DEC 27 2001 MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE MAX/MIN TEMPS TDA-FRI. SOME UNCERTAINTIES OF WIND POTENTIAL REACHING LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG I-25 ON FRI. EVEN BIGGER UNCERTAINTIES ON WHAT WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR FRI NGT-SAT IN SERN CO. CURRENTLY: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC MODEL 500-300MB LAYER VORTICITY ANALYSIS SHOWING FAST MOVING(46KTS) SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NERN UT WITH CLOUD SHIELD JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE MAINLY AOA 450MB PER CWA LAPS SOUNDINGS. APPEARS TO BE NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT OF THE CLOUDS PER VERY WEAK 88D RETURNS FROM THE GJT RADAR AND BASED ON SFC OBS. EVEN THE MONARCH/WOLF CREEK PEAK(APROX. 12K FT) NOT REPORTING ANY -SN. AIR MASS STILL NEEDS TO OVERCOME SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD HAS HALTED RADIATIONAL COOLING AS TEMPS ARE A LOT WARMER THAN LAST NGT AT THIS TIME. TDA-TNGT: ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24HRS. ISOCHRONE ANALYSIS HAS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTROID OVER SWRN CO AROUND 14Z/27 TDA. THIS HAS EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS. WILL LOOK FOR 60-80KT ULJ AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TO BLOW THROUGH SWRN CO THIS MORNING...THEN INTO TX BY LATE AFTN. A VERY WEAK TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ERN CO/WRN KS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE AFTER 18Z/27 TDA WITH PROBABLY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTN. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IS PRETTY SLIM. MID LEVEL STATIC STABILITIES ARE FAIRLY(3.5-5 C/KM) STABLE AS THE ULJ DRIVES THROUGH SWRN CO. AIR MASS DRYS OUT FAIRLY WELL. GUESS THERE STILL COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD -SHSN MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SWRN/CNTRL MTNS BETWEEN NOW AND 18Z. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL THE MAX TEMPS TDA...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY. LITTLE WIND TO STIR UP THE LOWER TROP...SO IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YDA. CURRENT MOS NWP GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT ZFP. THE INHERITED ZFP LOOKS DARN GOOD AND LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED. FOR TNGT...FAIRLY QUIET. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH SWRN CO... HOWEVER MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS IN NERN CO ALONG/W OF CONTDVD. AGAIN...CURRENT ZFP LOOKS REAL GOOD. FRI: VERY CHALLENGE DAY IN TERMS OF WIND AND MAX TEMP...ESPECIALLY ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF CAN INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE US RE-ENFORCING THE CAN AIR MASS. IN THE MEANTIME...A NWLY FLOW ULJ/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH CNTRL ROCKIES. STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE ULJ/SHORTWAVE. THE AVN IS STRONGER AND FASTER...WHILE THE ETA IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND SLOWER. MET SETUP FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPMENT. JUST HOW FAR DOWN IN ELEVATION WILL THE WINDS BE REALIZED? THE CONUNDRUM IS THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND IN ERN CO ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF MOUNTAIN WAVE CS SHIELD. IF THE FRONT IS A LITTLE FURTHER W...THEN IT WILL KEEP THE WINDS LOCKED UP AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS IS ALSO CRITICAL FOR MAX TEMPS. IF THE WINDS DON'T PICK UP FRI...THEN MAY BE HARD TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S PREDICTED BY FWC. IF WE CAN MIX TO 700MB... THAT WOULD GET US IN THE MID 50S AOB 5.5K FT MSL. TOUGH CALL. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE ALONG/W OF CONTDVD. PLAN TO STICK WITH CURRENT ZFP AS AGAIN LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. WILL ADD SOME OCCASIONAL WIND WORDING FOR FRI ALONG/W OF I-25. FRI NGT-SAT: ANOTHER BIG CHALLENGE FOR THESE PERIODS. SFC FRONT PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT NRN RANGE TO PALMER DIVIDE TO SRN FOOTHILLS. WOULD BE SURPRISED IF THE SFC FRONT "SQUIRTS" UP THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY. ULJ PARALLELING THE FRONT DIRECTLY OVER CWA FRI NGT-SAT AM. AGAIN...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE STRONGER AVN IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE 850-700MB QG FRONTOGENETICAL IMPLIED ASCENT... THUS A LITTLE MORE LIGHT QPF(--SN/-SN) IN ERN CO/WRN KS. THE ETA IS WEAKER AND LESS OR NIL QPF IN SERN CO. TOUGH CALL...ALL DEPENDS HOW TIGHT THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE CAN TIGHTEN UP. MOSITURE NOT VERY DEEP...SO WOULD THINK THE POTENTIAL WOULD BE FLURRIES AT BEST. SINCE THIS IS DAY 3 TERRITORY...PLAN TO STICK WITH CURRENT ZFP WHICH LOOKS GOOD. SUN-WED: NO CHANGES FOR DAY 4-7. .PUB...NONE. METZE co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 224 AM EST THU DEC 27 2001 SYNOPSIS: COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IN PROGRESS WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ENTIRE CWFA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HARD FREEZE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL VERIFY FOR ERN ZONES. LOOKING FOR THE COLDEST TEMPS SINCE JAN 26 HERE AT TLH BY DAYBREAK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM E TX E TO FL WITH A WEAK LOW ANALYZED IN THE NE GULF. LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ERN ONTARIO WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND IT, MOVING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN IS MOVING SEWD FROM ID INTO UT AFTER HAVING CUT THROUGH THE LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE. A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN OLD MEXICO. MODEL DISCUSSION: OF THE 3 AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES, ONLY THE ONE IN UTAH WILL HAVE ANY DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR WX LOCALLY. THIS FEATURE DIVES SE TO TX BY 00Z AND THEN E TO LA BY 12Z FRI. AFTER THIS TIME, THE SYSTEMS SHEARS AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. MODELS ARE NO LONGER IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ASSOCIATED DEVELOPMENTS AT THE SURFACE. THE ETA MAINTAINS THE BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT/S 00Z RUN. IT STILL SHOWS CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE COASTAL BEND OF TX AROUND 06Z FRI WITH THE LOW THEN MOVING ENE ACROSS LA ON FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWFA FRI NIGHT. THIS TRACK IS A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH OF LAST NIGHT/S SOLUTION. THE AVN AND NGM HOWEVER, ONLY SHOW A WEAK OPEN TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NRN GULF STATES DURING THIS TIME AND MAV POPS HAVE LOWERED A BIT ACCORDINGLY. THE ETA AND AVN DO AGREE THAT THE BULK OF THE LIFT AND PRECIP WILL BE OUT OVER THE GULF BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES US. PUBLIC FORECAST: FOR TODAY, LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE AND PROVIDE US WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER, A FEW CAA CLOUDS MAY MOVE ASHORE FROM TIME TO TIME AROUND AAF IN THE WNW FLOW. CURRENT TEMPS ALREADY LOWER THAN FWC MIN TEMP FORECASTS. SO WITH THE MODEL STARTING OUT TOO WARM, BELIEVE FWC MAX TEMPS ARE TOO WARM. WILL GO CLOSER TO MAV WHICH FITS MAX TEMP FORECAST FROM ETA SOUNDINGS. FOR TONIGHT AND BEYOND, WILL SLIDE CHANGES ADVERTISED IN EXISTING FORECAST BACK BY ABOUT A PERIOD. THIS MEANS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER FREEZE ACROSS ERN ZONES. A BLEND OF TEMP GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL NOT MEET HARD FREEZE CRITERIA, BUT WILL SEE A FREEZE IN THE ERN ZONES. HOWEVER,WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF "NORMALLY COLDER" AREAS DO GET A HARD FREEZE IN SW/SC GA AND THE FL BIG BEND. NPW WILL BE ISSUED BY THE DAY SHIFT IF NEEDED. FOR FRI, WILL TRIM BACK POPS FOR FL ZONES TO 20 AND SLIDE THE 30 POP INTO FRI NIGHT PERIOD. WILL FAVOR MILDER NGM MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER, FEEL NGM COOLS THINGS DOWN TOO FAST FRI NIGHT, SO WILL FOLLOW MAV CLOSELY THERE. WILL BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC ON SAT. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK WAVE FORMING ON THE FRONT IN THE GULF, WILL HOLD A 20 POP IN FOR FL ZONES. MARINE: WEAKNESS IN NE GULF COMPLICATES WIND DIRECTION FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS AT 06Z, SO WILL FOLLOWED FOR TODAY. SINCE SUSTAINED WINDS AT THE BUOYS ARE NOW BELOW SCEC, WILL DROP THE HEADLINE WITH 0930Z PACKAGE. MARGINAL SCA STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP SCEC WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING ON SUN. FIRE WX: INLAND RED FLAG WARNING AND COASTAL FIRE WX WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT LOOK LIKE GOOD CALLS. NO HEADLINES WILL BE REQUIRED FOR TOMORROW. EXTENDED: WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION FOR MON AND TUE IN DEFERENCE TO ECMWF, ALTHOUGH MRF ALSO SHOWS A WEAK GULF LOW. PRELIM NUMBERS... TLH 56 26 66 48 0023 PFN 55 38 64 53 0023 DHN 53 34 60 47 0022 ABY 53 29 63 46 0022 VLD 57 28 65 48 0023 .TLH... .AL...NONE. .GA...NONE. .FL...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY ALL INLAND ZONES. FIRE WEATHER WATCH TODAY ALL COASTAL ZONES. WOOL fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 AM CST THU DEC 27 2001 FORECAST CONCERN IS CLOUD COVER TODAY AND CHANCE OF MORE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES...THEN HOW FAST TO BRING IN ARCTIC PUSH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY..LOTS OF BREAKS OVER SOUTH BUT LOWER CLOUDS ARE PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH FROM CENTRAL MN. ETA SEEMED TO WANT TO KEEP EXTENSIVE HIGHER..LOW LEVEL RH MORE OUT IN EASTERN DAKOTAS. LOOKING UP TO FAR NORTH..ANOTHER WEAK VORT IS SLIDING SE TOWARD EAST CENTRAL MN. 06Z RUC AND ETA SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE THAN 00Z RUNS. LOOKS LIKE BETS CHANCE THROUGH..OVER EAST CENTRAL ON INTO WI. WILL KEEP FLURRIES OVER REST OF EAST. ETA HAS SLOWED THE ARCTIC A BIT THE LAST COUPLE RUNS AND LIKE THE AVN INITIALIZATION OF 850 TEMPS BETTER. FWC MOS GUIDANCE NOT BAD THOUGH...BUT CLOSER TO AVN IN SOUTH. WILL MENTION SOME FLURRIES WITH FRONT AND THEN SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATER FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES AROUND. PROBABLY STEADY TEMPS OVER MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY BUT MAYBE FALLING SOUTH..DEPENDING ON LOWS OVERNIGHT. MRF 6-10 DAY 500 HEIGHTS STILL SHOWING SOME PACIFIC FLOW BREAKING THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AT OUR LATITUDE..BUT NEW UPPER LOW WITH ARCTIC REBUILDING OVER FAR N CANADA. .MSP...NONE. RICHARDSON mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 215 AM CST THU DEC 27 2001 FORECAST CONCERNS: TODAY'S SNOW FLURRY ACTIVITY AND TEMPERATURES. ALSO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. 10-3.9U SATELLITE SHOWING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS EASTERN ONE HALF OF CWA WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. JOPLIN AS OF 2 AM WAS REPORTING A MILD 33 DEGREES. MAIN COLD FRONT STILL IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI WITH READINGS STILL IN THE LOWER 30S BEHIND IT. ALSO NOT MUCH SNOW FLURRY ACTIVITY AS WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEM LAST NIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARD AN ETA/RUC LOWER CLOUD FIELD TODAY WHICH INDICATES MOST OF THE DEEPER CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY IN THE FAR NE CWA...WITH ONLY A FEW MID CLOUDS IN THE SW. THEREFORE WILL TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF SNOW FLURRIES...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE CWA WHERE LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO REFLECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY IN SW CWA)...SO WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AND USED THE ETA FOR A BASE. NEXT SHORT WAVE/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH IS MUCH COLDER WITH 85H TEMPERATURES. HAVE DROPPED A FEW DEGREES ON OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT WEEK...AS STRONG NW CANADIAN/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME CONCERNS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE AVN IS SHOWING SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO FAR SW CWA. HOWEVER AIR MASS IS WAY TOO DRY FOR ANY TYPE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. ISC GRIDS ALREADY SENT. FCSTID = 25/JLT SGF 39 24 43 16 / 0 0 0 0 JLN 43 25 45 17 / 0 0 0 0 UNO 42 24 43 16 / 0 0 0 0 VIH 36 23 42 15 / 0 0 0 0 .SGF... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 210 AM CST THU DEC 27 2001 ONCE AGAIN WE'VE GOT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BI-STATE AREA TONIGHT. LSX WSR-88D IS SHOWING ECHOS MOVING OVERHEAD ON THE COMPOSITE RIGHT NOW...BUT UPON STANDING OUTSIDE FOR A FEW MINUTES...NOTHING OBSERVED EXCEPT A DECK OF SC. THE STRONGEST REFLECTIVITIES ON THE COMPOSITE ARE ONLY 24DBZ ANYWAY SO IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW JUST ISN'T IN THE CARDS FOR US TONIGHT. CLOSEST LOW CLOUDS WITH ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE OVER IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS ARE HEADING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. NEAREST UPSTREAM LOW CLOUDS ARE WAY BACK IN NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...AND NO PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO BE FALLING OUT OF THEM. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS TONIGHT ARE KEEPING OUR TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER FROM THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. INDEED...WHILE LOOKING FOR SNOW OUTSIDE...THE 10 MPH WIND WASN'T THAT BAD EVEN THOUGH IT'S ONLY 25 DEGREES OUTSIDE THE WFO. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TIL BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z ACCORDING TO THE MESOETA WHICH GOES NEUTRAL AFTER THAT WHILE THE RUC WANTS TO HOLD ONTO THE WAA THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING NEUTRAL AROUND 18Z. MESOETA RH FIELDS SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUDS THAT ARE AFFECTING THE CWA AT THIS TIME...AND THEY INDICATE THAT WE'LL BE AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH 21Z. FWC SCATTERS US OUT EARLIER...BUT MAV GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THE ETA. ETA 2 METER TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAV TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION. WITH THAT IN MIND...TEMPERATURES IN THE GOING ZONES FOR TODAY LOOK EXCELLENT. WILL PULL ANY MENTION OF SNOW OR FLURRIES FOR THIS MORNING IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. CONTINUING ON...WE'RE SHORTWAVE FREE TIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL JUST SEE SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT ONE. ON INTO THE WEEKEND IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL STAY DRY WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKYS. SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER COOLDOWN ON SATURDAY BACK INTO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES FOR HIGHS. SATURDAY NIGHTS LOWS COULD BE ABOUT THE COLDEST ALL SEASON WITH AVN 2 METER TEMPS WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ENTIRE CWFA. SUNDAY'S HIGHS LOOK LIKE THE'LL STRUGGLE INTO THE 20S. FMR AND MEX GUIDANCE BEARS THIS OUT. .STL...NONE. CARNEY mo SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 230 AM MST THU DEC 27 2001 .SHORT TERM...OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN THIS MORNING ARE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING OVER N CNTRL MT. RUC MODELS SHOWING 90 PERCENT SURFACE RH LINGERING OVER HVR AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING. WILL MENTION AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS CNTRL AND N CNTRL ZONES BURNING OFF BY AFTERNOON. NEXT FORECAST PROBLEM FOCUSES ON COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING INTO MT FROM THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM COINCIDES WITH BATCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WHICH PUSHES THROUGH A COL IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND MOVES OVER SW MT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS BRING ENOUGH UVV AND MOISTURE FOR GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. PLAINS ZONES HAVE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT ENOUGH OVERRUNNING TO PRODUCE FLURRIES FOR WRN AND SRN MOST ZONES ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK AS COLD WITH SYSTEM AS EARLIER RUNS. THIS APPARENTLY DUE TO MODELS HOLDING BACK SURFACE HIGH OVER ALTA SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY. MPJ .EXTENDED...COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MRF AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING OMEGA BLOCK OVER CANADA IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD... BUT FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEAK...CONFINING SNOW TO MAINLY THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...FEEL MODELS ARE ERODING THE COLD AIR AWAY TOO QUICKLY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES. VILLANI .CCF NUMBERS GTF BM 033/012 020/004 016 14012 EEEEE 907/014 001/022 006/028 010/030 010 11122111111 CTB BM 040/010 018/902 012 14012 EEEEE 904/010 001/015 005/023 007/028 007 11112111111 HLN BJ 022/004 020/000 016 14024 EEEEE 905/016 903/019 002/021 009/027 009 31123111111 BZN UJ 028/005 025/004 018 14024 EEEEE 905/017 000/017 005/020 007/024 007 31123111111 WEY UJ 007/917 008/917 010 14035 EEEEE 922/007 915/008 910/010 908/012 908 31123111111 DLN BJ 030/012 027/009 027 14035 EEEEE 005/022 007/023 008/024 014/029 014 22122111111 HVR BE 033/006 016/906 008 14001 EEBBE 912/003 908/011 902/016 005/020 005 10112111111 LWT BE 038/012 020/001 015 14002 ECCBC 905/010 001/016 005/020 010/025 010 11112211111 .TFX...NONE. mt FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 845 PM CST WED DEC 26 2001 FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND PCPN. TOUGH TO RESOLVE ANY BREAKS VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY IN OTHERWISE LAYERED CLOUD SHIELD IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER AREA. WINNIPEG SITTING AT 5 ABOVE HOWEVER FOR THE MOST PART SOLID CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES FROM 15 TO 20. EVEN MILDER TEMPS UPSTREAM AND WITH CLOUD COVER HOLDING TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL WAVE DROPPING THROUGH FA ATTM WITH MOST -SN AND EVEN SOME SPOTTY FZDZ WEST AND NORTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM RUC ANALYSIS FROM SASK THROUGH WEST HALF OF DAKOTAS. ATTM WILL MAINTAIN FLURRIES HOWEVER WILL BE ON LOOKOUT FOR ANY FZDZ THAT POPS UP. WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK AT TEMPS HOWEVER ANY CHANGES WILL BE MINOR. .FGF...NONE. VOELKER nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 255 AM MST THU DEC 27 2001 BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES TO LEAVE CWFA UNDER NW-N FLOW. PRESSURE FALLS ALREADY NOTED JUST NORTH OF CWFA...AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF SRN CANADA. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...AND THUS HIGH TEMPS. EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS CUTTING CWFA IN HALF ATTM. LATEST SAT PIX SHOW WRN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS OVR ERN MT BUILDING A TAD FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON LO LVL WINDS AND PROGGED LAYER RH'S...CLOUD EDGE SHOULD NOT PUSH MUCH FURTHER W ACRS CWFA. HOWEVER...THIS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A BIT BASED ON LATER SAT PIX AND THE 09Z RUC. TEMPS UNDER CLOUD COVER TDY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30...WHERE AS CLOUD FREE ZONE WILL MIX INTO THE 40S. FOR TNGT AND FRI...NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR SWEEPS ACROSS ZONES FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF WINDS...ALTHOUGH WARNING CRITERIA NOT ANTICIPATED. AGAIN...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO EXPECT LITTLE IN WAY OF QPF. A WEAKER SURGE OF COLD AIR PUNCHES THROUGH SAT WITH SAME LIMITED MOISTURE. EXTENDED...CURRENT FCST HANDLES SITUATION WELL...AND WILL MAKE NO ADJUSTMENTS. COLD CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS NRN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR CONTINUED CHILLY TEMPS AND LITTLE TO NO PCPN. COLD SFC HIGH MIGRATES S OF AREA BY MIDWEEK AS WARM UPR HIGH OVR CANADA SPRDS S OVER REGION...FOR A RETURN OF 'WARMER' TEMPS. IF CURRENT DRY TREND HOLDS...THIS WILL BE THE ONLY DECEMBER IN KRAP RECORDED HISTORY WITHOUT ANY MEASURABLE PCPN. .UNR...NONE. JOHNSON sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1100 AM EST THU DEC 27 2001 SURFACE LOW POSITIONED JUST NE OF THE SAULT CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THUS CONTINUING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE. MORNING APX SOUNDING WAS WEAKLY CAPPED...WITH DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING UP THROUGH ABOUT 600 MB. SUFFICE IT TO SAY... DEPTH OF MOISTURE/CONVECTION ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -14/-15C ARE PROVIDING AN EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY SNOW PRODUCTION. THE MAIN AFTERNOON QUESTION IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR. OVERNIGHT...10 TO 15 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FELL ACROSS PARTS OF EMMET AND CHARLEVOIX COUNTIES (BRINGING 36 HR TOTALS UP TO 2-3 FEET). HOWEVER...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY PAST 2-4 HOURS...WHICH HAS CAUSED WEST-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWEST (A WIND SHIFT OF ONLY ABOUT 20 DEG). THIS HAS CAUSED THE HEAVIEST BANDS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD A BIT. SO THE RELENTLESS SNOWS ACROSS CHARLEVOIX...EMMET...AND CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES HAVE SLACKENED FOR THE TIME BEING...WHILE THE SNOW ACROSS ANTRIM/LEELANAU COUNTY HAS INCREASED. THE RUC AND MESO-ETA BOTH SHOW ENHANCED LAKE TROUGHING RE-DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CAUSING WINDS TO TURN BACK TO THE WSW ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...AM INCLINED TO KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES BASICALLY UNCHANGED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS LEELANAU AND ANTRIM COUNTIES...WHERE OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL OF 6-7 INCHES...TOGETHER WITH TODAY/S ACCUMULATIONS WILL PRODUCE 24 HR SNOWFALLS EXCEEDING 8 INCHES. WILL THEREFORE HOIST WARNINGS FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES. IN CHEBOYGAN COUNTY...WHERE SNOWS HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY...EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER ABOUT 20Z. .APX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...THIS AFTERNOON...MIZ020-021. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY....THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... SMITH mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA 1000 AM EST THU DEC 27 2001 VORT MAX WL MOV ACRS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENG. VORT IS ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MID CLDS. LOOKING AT 06Z ETA AND CURRENT RUC THIS MID CLD THINS AS IT MOVES E AND MAY ONLY CAUSE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN ACRS THE NRN CWA. WL HOLD ON TO A MSTLY SUNNY FCST. CURRENT TEMPS FCST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. DROPPING SCA AS WINDS SHD STAY UNDER THRU THE AFTN WITH A JUST A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING. SEAS WL REMAIN UNDER CRITERIA WITH W WINDS. FCSTID = 92 SBY 41 26 45 26 / 10 10 10 10 OXB 42 29 44 29 / 10 10 10 10 ECG 45 32 50 32 / 10 10 10 10 ORF 45 32 50 32 / 10 10 10 10 PHF 43 30 46 30 / 10 10 10 10 AKQ 42 27 46 27 / 10 10 10 10 RIC 41 26 45 26 / 10 10 10 10 FVX 42 27 46 27 / 10 10 10 10 .AKQ... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. 92 va