000 FGUS74 KMRX 111546 ESFMRX NCC039-043-TNC001-007-009-011-013-019-025-029-057-059-063-065-067- 073-089-091-093-105-107-115-121-123-129-139-143-145-151-153-155-163- 171-173-179-VAC105-167-169-191-195-520-720-121200- DROUGHT STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1200 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007 NOTE: THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO ISSUED UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MEMPNSMRX OR WMO HEADER NOUS44 KMRX ...ATTENTION: DEEPENING DROUGHT OVER THE REGION...FOR GRAPHIC DISPLAYS ON THE INTERNET GO TO WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML ...DROUGHT STATEMENT FOR EAST TENNESSEE...EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA... INTRODUCTION... D3 (EXTREME) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND THEN EASTWARD TO ROUGHLY A KNOXVILLE TO GATLINBURG LINE. THIS INCLUDES MOST OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS. IT ALSO COVERS CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA. D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GREAT VALLEY, AND ALL OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE, EXCEPT THE FURTHERMOST TIP. IT ALSO COVER A SLIM STRIP OF SOUTHERN SCOTT COUNTY, VIRGINIA. D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT COVERS THE NORTHERNMOST CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, THE FAR NORTHEAST TIP OF TENNESSEE AND VIRTUALLY ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. PRECIPITATION STATUS... RAINFALL AT INDIVIDUAL POINTS IS NOT ALWAYS AN ACCURATE REFLECTION OF AN AREA`S PRECIPITATION. RAINFALL OVER LARGE AREAS IS A MORE REALISTIC REPRESENTATION. RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE AT BEST. PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAS BEEN LIKEWISE MUCH BELOW NORMAL. THE WORST HIT AREAS ARE IN SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE ALONG THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA BORDER AREAS. FOLLOWING ARE SOME RAINFALL PERCENTAGES FOR 2007 AND SINCE JANUARY 1, 2006, BY BASIN: LAKE NAME `07 % NORM `06-`07 % NORM GUNTERSVILLE 3962 NICKAJACK 3460 CHICKAMAUGA 4167 WATTS BAR 5776 FT. LOUD/TEL 5383 HIWASSEE 5072 NOTTELY 6079 CHATUGE 4869 MELTON HILL 5781 NORRIS 6689 FONTANA 5676 DOUGLAS 5988 CHEROKEE 5888 BOONE 5488 WATAUGA 6190 S. HOLSTON 6593 IT IS APPARENT THAT RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE WORSENED OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS. ALSO, FROM THE ABOVE LIST, YOU CAN SEE THE RAINFALL SHORTAGES ARE WORSE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT NONETHELESS BAD UP NORTH. SOIL MOISTURE... AS A RESULT OF THIS RAINFALL DEFICIT, SOIL MOISTURE IS SUFFERING, AS WELL. VISUAL EVIDENCE OF THIS CAN BE SEEN IN FARM PONDS AND NORMALLY FILLED SINKHOLES WHICH ARE EMPTY OR VERY LOW. EVEN AFTER WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, TOPSOIL RETURNS TO A DRY STATE VERY QUICKLY. THE DEEP WATER TABLE IS VERY MUCH REDUCED AND THIS IS APPARENT IN EXTREMELY LOW TO RECORD LOW STREAM FLOWS. CURRENT STREAM FLOWS... THE CURRENT VOLUME OF WATER IN STREAMS REFLECTS THE DEPTH OF THE WATER TABLE. CURRENT STREAM FLOWS IN THE REGION RANGE FROM MUCH BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TIP OF VIRGINIA, AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. THEY RANGE FROM NEAR RECORD LOW TO RECORD LOW LEVELS LEVELS ON THE SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE, THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER, AND IN CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA. STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE SIMPLY THE GROUND WATER TABLE APPEARING ON THE SURFACE. THE FLOW ON THE TENNESSEE RIVER AT CHATTANOOGA IS 104TH OUT OF 105 YEARS OF RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FLOOD CONTROL SPACE IN THE SYSTEM ABOVE CHATTANOOGA IS 178 PERCENT OF NORMAL, MEANING THERE IS 78% MORE ROOM FOR FLOOD WATER STORAGE IN THE TENNESSEE RIVER SYSTEM ABOVE CHATTANOOGA THAN IS NORMAL FOR THE TIME PERIOD. FLOODING... NO FLOODING OCCURRING AND NO FLOODING IN SIGHT, ALTHOUGH EVEN IN EXTREME DROUGHTS FLOODING CAN OCCUR LOCALLY IF ENOUGH RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. EXPECTED RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES... FOR JUNE, THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS FOR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL, WITH ABOUT AVERAGE RAINFALL. RAINFALL IN JUNE IS USUALLY HIT AND MISS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE SUMMER (JUNE-AUGUST), THE OUTLOOK IS FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL, WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL. AGAIN, SUMMERTIME RAINFALL CAN BE QUITE VARIABLE, WITH SOME PLACES GETTING A LOT AND NEXT DOOR GETTING ALMOST NOTHING. OUTLOOKS... PERSISTENCE OF DROUGHT IS USUALLY THE BEST BET WHEN PREDICTING DROUGHT BEHAVIOR. JUST FOR 2007 THE RAINFALL DEFICITS RANGE FROM 7.05 INCHES IN THE SOUTH HOLSTON RESERVOIR BASIN TO 16.93 INCHES IN THE NICKAJACK BASIN. AT THIS POINT, WE WOULD NEED A FEW TROPICAL STORMS MOVING OVER THE REGION WITH PROLONGED MODERATE RAIN (WITH NO FLOODING) TO BRING US UP TO NORMAL. STILL, THE DEEP WATER TABLE WOULD NOT RECOVER AS QUICKLY AND SO WE REALLY NEED A VERY WET SUMMER, FALL, AND WINTER, TO GET US OUT OF THE LONG TERM DROUGHT. THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN AT THIS POINT. CAUTIONS... USE LESS WATER! BLOWING OR SWEEPING OFF DRIVEWAYS WILL SAVE WATER. TURNING OFF WATER WHEN BRUSHING TEETH AND SHAVING, TAKING SHORT SHOWERS AND NOT BATHS WILL ALSO SAVE WATER. IF YOU HAVE TO WATER OUTDOOR PLANTS, USE SOAKER HOSES AFTER SUNSET, OR SPOT WATER THEM TO DECREASE EVAPORATION. EVERY LITTLE BIT, TOTALED UP AMONG ALL OF US, WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. MOST PEOPLE CAN FIND OTHER EFFECTIVE WAYS TO SAVE WATER AND STILL HAVE A COMFORTABLE LIFESTYLE. FURTHER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR MORE INFORMATION OR FOR MEDIA INTERVIEWS CONTACT: BRIAN BOYD SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 5974 COMMERCE BLVD. MORRISTOWN, TN 37814 423-586-1964 (MEDIA ONLY) 423-586-2296 (ALL OTHER CALLS) EMAIL: BRIAN.BOYD@NOAA.GOV WEBSITE: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX $$