FXUS64 KBRO 062057
AFDBRO

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
300 PM CST THU FEB 6 2003

SHORT TERM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OLD BNDRY OSCILLATING BACK TO THE S 
IN SYMPATHY AHEAD OF STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTHWARD 
THRU CENTRAL TX. 88D LOOP SHOWS SW TO NE-ORIENTED FINE LINE MOVING 
SEWD FROM JUST NW OF BRO TO THE NE INTO THE MARINE ZONES. WV IMAGERY 
SHOWS SLOWLY AMPLIFYING H5 TROF TO THE SW OF BAJA...WITH EMBEDDED 
VORT MAX NEAR CABO. SAME IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS INCREASING EPAC MOISTURE 
BEING SCOOPED UP AHEAD OF THIS TROF. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 
UNDERCUTTING SURGE OF COLD AIR...COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE 
AND MODEST MID LEVEL DYNAMICS...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF 
OVERRUNNING -RA/-DZ FROM TONIGHT THRU SAT PM. BELIEVE FRI MAX TEMPS 
WILL OCCUR CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT WITH PROGGED STRONG CAA FOR FRI. AXIS 
OF HEAVIEST PCPN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NW TO SE THRU THE CWA 
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS COLD AIR DEEPENS AND H8 FRONT SHIFTS IN 
THE SAME DIRECTION. HOWEVER...BELIEVE BNDRY LAYER AND MID LEVELS 
WILL REMAIN TOO WARM DURING THIS TIME TO SUPPORT ANY FROZEN PCPN. 
THANX CRP FOR YOUR COORDINATION ON THIS AS WELL. AS SATURDAY 
PROGRESSES...MOISTURE WILL CONCENTRATE ALONG THE COAST AS COASTAL 
TROF SHARPENS. WILL STRATIFY POPS FROM W TO E WITH HIGHEST NUMBERS 
ALONG THE COAST. ON SUN...GFS SPINS UP COMPACT SFC LOW IN THE 
COASTAL TROF AND LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NE AS WEAKENING H5 CUTOFF 
ANCHORING SWRN PORTION OF US H5 TROF SHEARS OUT TO THE E. COASTAL 
TROF WILL CONCENTRATE BAROCLINICITY CLOSE TO THE COAST...MAKING TEMP 
FCST TRICKY FOR THE SERN CWA. THIS SHOULD END ANY SIG CHANCES FOR 
PCPN...BUT WITH COOL AIR STILL PREVALENT AT LOW LEVELS...BELIEVE 
CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BURN OFF.

LONG TERM...GFS PROGS YET ANOTHER POLAR BNDRY THRU MON AM. CLOUD 
FCST REMAINS TRICKY...AS H5 RIDGE AXIS HOVERS CLOSE TO THE CWA AS A 
LARGE LOW LURKS WELL TO THE WEST OF BAJA. GFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST H5 
FLOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH NEXT WEEK TO ALLOW H5 TROF 
DOMINATING THE ERN US TO SHIFT FAR ENOUGH E TO PERMIT BAJA H5 LOW TO 
INFLUENCE DPSOTX WX FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BASED UPON THIS...BELIEVE 
MON WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GFS BRINGS YET 
ANOTHER WEAK BNDRY INTO CENTRAL TX ON TUE AS EPAC MOISTURE  
ENCROACHES FROM THE W. WILL FCST INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHC 
POPS LATE IN THE DAY. GFS PROGS GOOD OVERRUNNING SCENARIO WED...SO 
WILL GO WITH CLDY SKIES AND CHANCE POPS. ON THU...BNDRY BOOMERANGS 
BACK TO THE N AS BAJA LOW LIFTS NEWD INTO THE DESERT SW. WILL GO 
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

MARINE...WINDS HAVE DECREASED AS THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH HAS 
TEMPORARILY RELAXED THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE. WAVE 
HEIGHTS REMAIN AT 6 FEET OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THEREFORE WILL 
RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A 
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. 
WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTH WITH VELOCITIES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING 
TO GALE FORCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE POST 
FRONTAL AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH WINDS 
VEERING TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM 
00Z/07 TO 00Z/08. CONDITIONS MAY TEMPORARILY EXCEED VFR MINIMUMS 
HOWEVER IFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITY 
OF 3 SM WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...                

BRO RR 050/052 039/050 048 20/70 70/40 00
HRL RR 048/050 038/050 045 20/70 70/40 00
MFE RR 048/050 038/048 043 30/70 60/30 00
RGC RR 047/049 037/046 041 40/80 50/20 00
SPI RR 054/056 044/053 051 10/60 80/50 05
 
PUBLIC...62
AVIATION/MARINE/MESO...57

.BRO...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY 
GMZ130-150-155-170-175.

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

$$