FXUS61 KILN 301958
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
300 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR MAP HAS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW.  FLOW WILL BECOME DRY WEST 
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OFF UPPER TROF AXIS. MAIN EFFECTS OF 
SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE GREAT LAKES.  

SURFACE MAP HAS LOW OVER WEST TENNESSEE...WITH GFS SLIGHTLY MORE ON 
TARGET WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW'S POSITION. GFS BRINGS THE LOW 
DIRECTLY OVER ILN BETWEEN 03-06Z TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE SCOOPED UP 
QUICKLY BY THE UPPER TROF...MAKING IT TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON. 

LOOKING AT THE RADAR AND OBS...IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE SHIELD IN THE 
PRESENCE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEFORMATION WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT 
IN RAIN FOR ILN AREA.  THEREFORE...WILL KEEP 100 POPS EARLY TONIGHT. 
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL RAIN FOR TONIGHT EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST 
WHERE I WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE OF SNOW LATE.  RAIN CHANCE WILL 
DECREASE BY DAYBREAK AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE LOW.  
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER 12Z WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY 
CLOUDY. 

OTHER PROBLEM WITH THE LOW WILL BE BRISK WINDS BEHIND IT.  DECIDED 
TO GO WITH 15 TO 25 AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.  

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  FOR THURSDAY...SHORT 
WAVE WILL ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TEMPS: INCREASED THURSDAY UP TOWARD MAV. REST UNCHANGED.

 
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

 AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS CWA. MINOR DIFFERENCE IN TRACK BUT NOT 
MUCH DIFFERENCE AS FAR AS WEATHER. CEILINGS LOWERING WITH NEAR 
STEADY RAIN. WINDS A FACTOR AFTER LOW PASSAGE. WILL BRING THESE UP 
QUICKLY FROM 05-09Z ACROSS CWA.  NOT MUCH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. MAY 
SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF DAYTON BEFORE 
PRECIP ENDING. WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. DRYING OUT QUICKLY ON 
TUESDAY. WILL INDICATE BY RAISING CEILINGS. MAY SCATTER OUT IN THE 
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED FCST...AND 
THUS HAVE USED.

REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER A NWLY UPR LVL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND...THEN THE FLOW WILL BUCKLE TO THE SW AS NEXT MAJOR 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.   OTHERWISE...A CLIPPER 
TYPE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE 
FIRST PART OF SATURDAY.  AT THIS POINT...WILL INTRODUCE 30 TO 40 
PERCENT CHC/S OF PCPN.  PCPN SHOULD START OUT AS SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT 
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN IT MAY MIX WITH RAIN BEFORE ENDING.  A 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.  AS 
MENTIONED BEFORE...NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE 
REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.  INCREASING WAA AHEAD OF THE COLD 
FRONT/UPR LVL LOW WILL BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...CONTINUING 
INTO TUESDAY.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY AND 
SATURDAY...THEN THEY WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS 
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DUE TO WAA AHEAD OF SYSTEM.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$