PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2003 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 26 - 30 2003 . . . . . . . THE DAY 1 THROUGH 5 PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROUGH EXITING THE NORTHEAST ... A RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST... AND A MOSTLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. BY DAY 5... THE GFS SOLUTIONS AND THE CANADIAN MODEL ESTABLISH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE UKMET... NOGAPS... AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND PROGRESS IT TO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD... THE 18Z... 12Z... 0Z... 6Z GFS AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICT A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH A TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE GFS SOLUTIONS IS ABSENT IN THE ECMWF MODEL... WHICH SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH IN THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. OVER ALASKA MOST MODELS PREDICT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE... HOWEVER THE 12Z AND 6Z GFS HAVE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES NUDGING INTO THE NORTH SLOPE. THE DAVA WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS RECENTLY HAD THE BEST AVERAGE 500-HPA ANOMALY CORRELATIONS AND TODAY THE BEST CORRELATION TO ITS CONSTRUCTED ANALOG OF ALL MODELS... AT 0.62 AND 0.95... RESPECTIVELY. THE 0Z GFS HAD THE WORST ANALOG ANOMALY COORELATION TODAY AT 0.86. MODEL OF THE DAY: GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY ... 2 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5... DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAYS 0Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAYS ECMWF SOLUTION CENTERED ON DAY 7...60 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 5 PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... MOS TEMPERATURES OFF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND ANALOGS TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF. THE ANALOGS TO THE BLENDED 500- HPA HEIGHT FIELD WERE NOT AVAILABLE TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON NEURAL NET PRECIPITATION FROM THE BLEND... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND ANALOGS TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF. THE ANALOGS TO THE BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD WERE UNAVAILABLE TODAY. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 28 - NOV 03 2003 FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD... SOME GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE IDEA OF A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OF THE 6Z GFS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FLATTER WITH THIS FEATURE OWING TO THE FACT THAT THERE IS LARGE SPREAD AMONGST THE VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE WEST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CLUSTERED INTO TWO GROUPS... ONE GROUP FAVORING A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ANOTHER FAVORING A CUT-OFF LOW. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF MODEL DOESNT FAVOR THE FORMATION OF A CUT-OFF LOW... AND APPROXIMATELY HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DONT HAVE THIS FEATURE... NOT MUCH WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE 0Z GFS WHICH DEPICTED THE FORMATION OF A CUT-OFF LOW. VIRTUALLY ALL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMEMT DEPICTING A TROUGH IN THE EAST. CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK 2 FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE AGAIN TO UNCERTAINTY IN SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN CREATING A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 70 PERCENT OF TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 5 PERCENT OF TODAYS 0Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 5 PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11... AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAYS ECMWF SOLUTION CENTERED ON DAY 7. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND THE NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG... AND ANALOGS TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG WERE UNAVAILABLE TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOGS TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION OFF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 0Z GFS AS WELL AS ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL 500 HPA HEIGHT PROG WERE UNAVAILABLE TODAY. FORECASTER: S. HANDEL . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ... THURSDAY NOV 20 2003. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19921020 - 19601024 - 19681027 - 19651004 - 19881031 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19921019 - 19681027 - 19601024 - 19901026 - 19951014 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$