AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 100 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .DISCUSSION... CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE AREA SHOULD BE GONE BY 6AM. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT ALONG MS RIVER. LATEST ETA AND RUC HAVE FRONT THRU IL AND NW IN BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF FORECAST AREA. SOME MORNING SUN BUT WRAP AROUND CLOUDS DEVELOP AS LOW PULLS NE INTO WIS. COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DONT SUPPORT THUNDER. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING BUT LITTLE THREAT OF RAIN AFTER THAT. COOL AIR AND CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST INTO WED BUT DESPITE MODERATELY COLD TEMPS ALOFT...DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF FORECAST. PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS UPPER LOW WOBBLES AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. DRYING OUT NICELY FOR A GLORIOUS FATHERS DAY WEEKEND. AFTER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES OUT EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOULD BE LOTS OF SUN AND IT SHOULD WARM UP NICELY THIS MORNING. BUT COOL AIR ADVECTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF CHICAGO WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN. THEN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH WEST WINDS THERE WILL BE NO LAKE COOLING TODAY. WINDS TURNING NORTH LATE WED AFTERNOON...THEN LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALLSOPP && .AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT...SEEN AT 500 MB...WILL MOVE EAST TO MICHIGAN BY 12 UTC WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP A VCSH...SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY... IN THE TAF THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE UPPER MICHIGAN. THE FRONT WAS THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 16 UTC. SOUNDING FROM ACARS SHOW THE LCL AT 5100 FT TODAY AT ORD. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WEST TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL FORECAST AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING. && .LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LK MI...NONE. $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1045 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .UPDATE... MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE SHRA TRENDS. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW HAD MOVED INTO N CNTRL WI. AT THE SFC...A 997 MB LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE GARDEN PENINSULA AT 02Z. RADAR INDICATED NMRS SHRA OVER MAINLY THE W HLF OF UPR MI WITH 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. LONE CLUSTER OF WEAK TSTMS OVER S CNTRL UPR MI...VCNTY ELEVATED CAPE OF 300-500 J/KG...PER LAPS SOUNDINGS...HAD DIMINISHED AS INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH EDGE OF DRIER AIR MAY EDGE INTO NW UPPER MI TOWARD DAYBREAK...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND 00Z RUC SUGGEST THAT NMRS/OCNL -SHRA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LVL LOW SHIFTS TOWARD GEORGIAN BAY. AN ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST BUT WITH MINIMAL/FADING INSTABILITY...GOING FCST WITH TSRA ONLY THROUGH EVENING...STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. && JLB .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 445 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS FCST PACKAGE ARE FOR LINGERING TSTMS THIS EVENING AND THEIR TRANSITION TO MAINLY SHWRS OVRNGT. MARINE LAYER FOG OVR LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT SHORELINE AREA ALSO A CONCERN AS SFC FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 998 MB LOW NEAR IMT WITH NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED TO THE EAST ACROSS NRN LK MI THROUGH THE STRAITS TO NRN LK HURON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN AREA OF MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. AIRMASS IN PLACE VERY JUICY WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MID 60S AND H85 DWPTS ARND +11 TO +12 DEG C. INITIAL CELL THAT REDEVELOPED OVER MNM COUNTY EARLIER THIS AFTN SHOWED THE BEST ELEVATED CORE AND HIGHEST VIL DENSITY VALUES (CLOSE TO 3.5) YET GROUND TRUTH YIELDED NO REPORTS OF HAIL. SINCE THEN CONVECTION HAS APPEARED LESS IMPRESSIVE PER 88D SIGNATURES DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY PROXIMITY OF FAVORABLE UPR LVL JET QUADRANT. AREA FOR RISK OF ISOLD SVR HAIL CONFINED TO MAINLY SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES NOW WHERE 79/66 TEMP/DWPT YIELDS ABOUT 1200 J/KG CAPES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE U.P. (MAINLY CNTRL SECTIONS) EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS (SFC REPORTS INDICATING .5 INCH IN 30 MINUTES) AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. AS SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE U.P./LAKE MICHIGAN BOUNDARY AND THE UPR LOW PULLS EAST BEHIND IT PCPN WILL TRANSITION TO SHWRS AS BETTER INSTABILITY AND ISENTROPIC FORCING DEPARTS. WILL CONTINUE HIGH POPS TNGT AS LOW WILL ONLY REACH NRN LK HURON BY 12Z WED. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE U.P. INTO WED AND WITH THAT WILL CONTINUE SCT SHWRS TIL ABT MID MORNING ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND INTO THE MIDDAY ACROSS THE THE REST OF THE WEST AND CNTRL U.P. BY MID AFTERNOON EXPECT INCREASED DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TO HAVE TAKEN HOLD ACROSS ALL BUT THE SE AND EAST COUNTIES WITH CONTINUED SHWR CHANCES FROM MNM TO ERY. COOLER AIRMASS (H85 TEMPS LOWERING TO +8 TO +10 DEG C) COMBINED WITH LOW LVL TRAJECTORY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AFTER LOW DEPARTS. GFS/NAM CONTINUING RECENT TREND OF DROPPING UPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD AND MERGING THAT WAVE WITH DEPARTING CUT OFF LOW CAUSING A RETROGRADING TYPE EFFECT AS HEIGHTS LOWER AGAIN ACROSS THE ERN U.P. WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AFT A BRIEF DRY PERIOD XPECT DEEPER MOISTURE/SHWRS TO WORK BACK WESTWARD INTO THE ABOUT THE EAST HALF OF THE U.P. THURS. UKMET SUPPORTING THIS SOLN AS WELL. WHILE GFS/NAM HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON DEGREE OF COLD AIR AT H85 (NOW ABT +2 TO +3 DEG C INSTEAD OF +1!) FEEL THIS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT OVERDONE. NON THE LESS MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THURS WITH BRISK NRLY WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR PROVIDING ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG THE LAKESHORE AREAS. BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE THURS KICKS LOW TO THE EASTERN GRTLKS FRI BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS... SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AND WARMING H85 TEMPS. EXTENDED (SAT-TUE)...EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES STILL SUPPORTING VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. 5H RDG HEIGHTS BEGIN TO REBOUND OVER THE AREA ON SAT TO AROUND 580 DAM THEN RDG REALLY BECOMES AMPLIFIED LATE MON INTO TUE WITH HEIGHTS OF 590 DAM OR MORE OVER THE WRN GRT LKS AND MIDWEST. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT SUBSIDENCE WARMING WILL BRING 8H TEMPS UP TO AROUND 10C TO 12C ON SAT AND THEN UP TO 18C OR BETTER ON MON AND TUE AS THERMAL RIDGE NOSES IN FM THE PLAINS. MIXING TO 800 MB OFF GFS FCST SNDGS FOR MON AND TUE WOULD YIELD INLAND HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF THE WRN INTERIOR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RECORD HIGHS OF UPR 80S CHALLENGED AT NWS MQT FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ED F (TNGT-FRI NGT) VOSS (SAT-TUE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1015 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)... BAND OF SHOWERS AND A LONE THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND BEACHES OF NEW HANOVER AND BALD HEAD ISLAND AT TIME... APPEAR TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LAND BREEZE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRATUS KEEPING TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH SO FAR TODAY...BUT AS BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOP...TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH ONLY BRUNSWICK CO BEACHES LIKELY TO STAY BELOW 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 100 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING WILL REALLY MAKE FOR AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES NEARING 3 KFT. AND SO DESPITE A WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG TWO SURFACE BASED FEATURES. ONE OF THOSE...THE SEABREEZE WHICH WILL BE SHARP...BUT CONFINED TO WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE BEACHES...EXCEPT BRUNSWICK CO WHERE IT WILL PENETRATE UP TO 10 MILES INLAND. THE OTHER FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ALIGNED MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 CORRIDOR. && .MARINE... ISOLATED SHOWERS SHIFTING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC SHOWING MAINLY SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 2 TO 3 FEET SEAS AS LATEST WAVE WATCH SHOWING 3 TO 4 FT AT ILM01 AND ILM02 AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECT TO SEA 2 FEET NEAR SHORE. && .AVIATION... UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING GIVING A WEAK WEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE NOTED AT 7H NORTH OF ILM. SHOWERS AT 12Z IN THE VICINITY OF MYR/CRE AND SOUTHWEST OF ILM MOVING EAST. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE IFR CEILINGS MOVING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THINNING. IFR CEILINGS AT FLO WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 13Z THEN VFR AFTER 15Z. AFTERWARD...WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF FLO...TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS/SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED FROM 18-22Z WITH CB VICINITY. FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS...THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE COAST DUE TO WEAK WEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH CAPES IN THE 2500 J/KG RANGE...THE COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO MVFR/SHOWERS/CB VICINITY THROUGH 20Z. A DRYING TREND INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANING WITH TIME SO THINK PRECIPITATION WILL NOT AFFECT THE TERMINALS AFTER 22Z. FOG EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS. FOR NOW WILL INDICATE IFR CEILINGS AT FLO WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RJD AVIATION...MRR MARINE...HAWKINS nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 855 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)... A FEW SHOWERS STILL TRYING TO GET GOING RIGHT ALONG FRONT AS IT IS PUSHING EAST TOWARD CENTRAL OHIO. AS WE ARE NOW STARTING TO COOL...CHANCES OF ANYTHING DEVELOPING WITH FRONT ARE DIMINISHING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS BUT WILL LIKELY UPDATE FORECAST SHORTLY TO REMOVE EVENING POPS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AS REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 AVIATION (00Z-24Z)... COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF FA ATTM. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO REDEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF FRONT BUT HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME SUSTAINING THEMSELVES. WINDS ARE A LITTLE GUSTY BEHIND FRONT SO HUNG ON TO SOME EARLY GUSTS. OTHERWISE...COLD POOL BEHIND FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL HANG ON TO A FEW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THEN WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD CU UP PRETTY GOOD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... SVR TSTMS ONGOING ACRS FCST AREA ATTM. TSTMS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO SQUALL LINE FROM NEAR LANCASTER SE INTO NRN KY. APPEARS GREATEST INSTABILITY RESIDES IN SOUTH CNTRL OH AND NE KY...WHERE CURRENT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO L90S AND RUC INDCG SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE HAD A BIT MORE TROUBLE GETTING GOING NORTH OF I-70...AND APPEARS THAT SOME MID LVL SUBSIDENCE MAY BE THE CULPRIT. SVR TS WATCH #480 CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 23Z FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS WESTERN INDIANA. BNDRY WILL SHIFT EAST ACRS FCST AREA BTWN 22Z AND 03Z. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES UNTIL FROPA...ALTHOUGH MOST EXTENSIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER NEXT TWO HOURS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-71. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP GOOD PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FCST UNTIL RIGHT AT 20Z. PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF FCST AREA BY LATE EVNG AS FRNTL BNDRY SHIFTS EAST OF REGION. NICE DRY PUNCH INTO FCST AREA AFT MIDNIGHT...AND WILL GO PTLY CLDY FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPR LO WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL GRT LKS ON WED...AND WILL BE A MAIN FACTOR IN WX FOR REGION THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM. MID LVL S/WV WILL DROP AROUND BASE OF UPR TROF INTO NRN OH WED AFTN. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST 850 CAA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS BY AFTN AND THE CHANCE FOR SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP. BEST SHOT AT PCPN WILL BE ACRS NRN FCST AREA...AND HAVE INDCG 30 POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS. LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH...WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. 12Z NAM INDCG 500- 1000 J/KG SBCAPES...SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF TSTMS. PCPN WILL END DURING EVNG HOURS AS MID LVL VORT AND SFC TROF SHIFT EAST OF REGION. UPR LO BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST ON THURS WITH ANOTHER S/WV SHIFTING ACRS NRN OHIO THURS AFTN. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ON THURS...AND SHOULD SEE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PCPN. INCLUDED LO CHC POPS GENERALLY ACRS NRN/ERN PORTIONS FCST AREA FOR THURS AFTN. WDLY SCT -SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACRS CNTRL OH THURS NIGHT AS UPR LO DROPS INTO NRN PA. TEMPS...A CHANGE IS IN THE WORKS AFT EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABV NORM TEMPS. FOLLOWED MAV GUID CLOSELY THRU SHORT TERM. HIGHS IN U70S TO AROUND 80 ON WED WILL DROP BACK INTO L/M70S FOR THURS AS COLD POOL ASSOCD WITH UPR LO SHIFTS SOUTH FROM GRT LKS. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. RYAN LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... EXTENDED MODELS NOW IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING UPR LO EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HI PRES TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OH VLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. MAINTAINED A 20 POP ACRS NE FCST AREA FRI MRNG...THEN SHOULD SEE DRY WX AS UPR LO PULLS AWAY FROM REGION. DRY WX EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF EXTENDED WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO GRT LKS AND OH VLY. MODELS DIFFERING A BIT ON PLACEMENT OF DVLPG UPR LO ACRS SE CONUS...THEN RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO LWR MISSISSIPPI VLY THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK. CNTRL PLAINS RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OH VLY NORTH OF UPR LO MON- TUES...WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDCG 500 MB HEIGHTS ABV 5900M. IF THIS SHOULD VERIFY...IT WOULD MEAN A RETURN TO ABV NORM TEMPS BY NEXT WEEK. HAVE THUS WARMED MAX TEMPS FOR MON-TUES INTO M80S. RYAN && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 735 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .AVIATION (00Z-24Z)... COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF FA ATTM. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO REDEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF FRONT BUT HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME SUSTAINING THEMSELVES. WINDS ARE A LITTLE GUSTY BEHIND FRONT SO HUNG ON TO SOME EARLY GUSTS. OTHERWISE...COLD POOL BEHIND FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL HANG ON TO A FEW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THEN WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD CU UP PRETTY GOOD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... SVR TSTMS ONGOING ACRS FCST AREA ATTM. TSTMS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO SQUALL LINE FROM NEAR LANCASTER SE INTO NRN KY. APPEARS GREATEST INSTABILITY RESIDES IN SOUTH CNTRL OH AND NE KY...WHERE CURRENT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO L90S AND RUC INDCG SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE HAD A BIT MORE TROUBLE GETTING GOING NORTH OF I-70...AND APPEARS THAT SOME MID LVL SUBSIDENCE MAY BE THE CULPRIT. SVR TS WATCH #480 CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 23Z FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS WESTERN INDIANA. BNDRY WILL SHIFT EAST ACRS FCST AREA BTWN 22Z AND 03Z. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES UNTIL FROPA...ALTHOUGH MOST EXTENSIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER NEXT TWO HOURS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-71. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP GOOD PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FCST UNTIL RIGHT AT 20Z. PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF FCST AREA BY LATE EVNG AS FRNTL BNDRY SHIFTS EAST OF REGION. NICE DRY PUNCH INTO FCST AREA AFT MIDNIGHT...AND WILL GO PTLY CLDY FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPR LO WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL GRT LKS ON WED...AND WILL BE A MAIN FACTOR IN WX FOR REGION THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM. MID LVL S/WV WILL DROP AROUND BASE OF UPR TROF INTO NRN OH WED AFTN. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST 850 CAA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS BY AFTN AND THE CHANCE FOR SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP. BEST SHOT AT PCPN WILL BE ACRS NRN FCST AREA...AND HAVE INDCG 30 POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS. LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH...WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. 12Z NAM INDCG 500- 1000 J/KG SBCAPES...SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF TSTMS. PCPN WILL END DURING EVNG HOURS AS MID LVL VORT AND SFC TROF SHIFT EAST OF REGION. UPR LO BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST ON THURS WITH ANOTHER S/WV SHIFTING ACRS NRN OHIO THURS AFTN. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ON THURS...AND SHOULD SEE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PCPN. INCLUDED LO CHC POPS GENERALLY ACRS NRN/ERN PORTIONS FCST AREA FOR THURS AFTN. WDLY SCT -SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACRS CNTRL OH THURS NIGHT AS UPR LO DROPS INTO NRN PA. TEMPS...A CHANGE IS IN THE WORKS AFT EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABV NORM TEMPS. FOLLOWED MAV GUID CLOSELY THRU SHORT TERM. HIGHS IN U70S TO AROUND 80 ON WED WILL DROP BACK INTO L/M70S FOR THURS AS COLD POOL ASSOCD WITH UPR LO SHIFTS SOUTH FROM GRT LKS. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. RYAN LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... EXTENDED MODELS NOW IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING UPR LO EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HI PRES TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OH VLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. MAINTAINED A 20 POP ACRS NE FCST AREA FRI MRNG...THEN SHOULD SEE DRY WX AS UPR LO PULLS AWAY FROM REGION. DRY WX EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF EXTENDED WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO GRT LKS AND OH VLY. MODELS DIFFERING A BIT ON PLACEMENT OF DVLPG UPR LO ACRS SE CONUS...THEN RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO LWR MISSISSIPPI VLY THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK. CNTRL PLAINS RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OH VLY NORTH OF UPR LO MON- TUES...WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDCG 500 MB HEIGHTS ABV 5900M. IF THIS SHOULD VERIFY...IT WOULD MEAN A RETURN TO ABV NORM TEMPS BY NEXT WEEK. HAVE THUS WARMED MAX TEMPS FOR MON-TUES INTO M80S. RYAN && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADDED AVIATION SECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 325 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... SVR TSTMS ONGOING ACRS FCST AREA ATTM. TSTMS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO SQUALL LINE FROM NEAR LANCASTER SE INTO NRN KY. APPEARS GREATEST INSTABILITY RESIDES IN SOUTH CNTRL OH AND NE KY...WHERE CURRENT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO L90S AND RUC INDCG SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE HAD A BIT MORE TROUBLE GETTING GOING NORTH OF I-70...AND APPEARS THAT SOME MID LVL SUBSIDENCE MAY BE THE CULPRIT. SVR TS WATCH #480 CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 23Z FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS WESTERN INDIANA. BNDRY WILL SHIFT EAST ACRS FCST AREA BTWN 22Z AND 03Z. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES UNTIL FROPA...ALTHOUGH MOST EXTENSIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER NEXT TWO HOURS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-71. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP GOOD PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FCST UNTIL RIGHT AT 20Z. PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF FCST AREA BY LATE EVNG AS FRNTL BNDRY SHIFTS EAST OF REGION. NICE DRY PUNCH INTO FCST AREA AFT MIDNIGHT...AND WILL GO PTLY CLDY FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPR LO WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL GRT LKS ON WED...AND WILL BE A MAIN FACTOR IN WX FOR REGION THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM. MID LVL S/WV WILL DROP AROUND BASE OF UPR TROF INTO NRN OH WED AFTN. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST 850 CAA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS BY AFTN AND THE CHANCE FOR SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP. BEST SHOT AT PCPN WILL BE ACRS NRN FCST AREA...AND HAVE INDCG 30 POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS. LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH...WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. 12Z NAM INDCG 500- 1000 J/KG SBCAPES...SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF TSTMS. PCPN WILL END DURING EVNG HOURS AS MID LVL VORT AND SFC TROF SHIFT EAST OF REGION. UPR LO BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST ON THURS WITH ANOTHER S/WV SHIFTING ACRS NRN OHIO THURS AFTN. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ON THURS...AND SHOULD SEE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PCPN. INCLUDED LO CHC POPS GENERALLY ACRS NRN/ERN PORTIONS FCST AREA FOR THURS AFTN. WDLY SCT -SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACRS CNTRL OH THURS NIGHT AS UPR LO DROPS INTO NRN PA. TEMPS...A CHANGE IS IN THE WORKS AFT EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABV NORM TEMPS. FOLLOWED MAV GUID CLOSELY THRU SHORT TERM. HIGHS IN U70S TO AROUND 80 ON WED WILL DROP BACK INTO L/M70S FOR THURS AS COLD POOL ASSOCD WITH UPR LO SHIFTS SOUTH FROM GRT LKS. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. RYAN && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... EXTENDED MODELS NOW IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING UPR LO EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HI PRES TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OH VLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. MAINTAINED A 20 POP ACRS NE FCST AREA FRI MRNG...THEN SHOULD SEE DRY WX AS UPR LO PULLS AWAY FROM REGION. DRY WX EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF EXTENDED WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO GRT LKS AND OH VLY. MODELS DIFFERING A BIT ON PLACEMENT OF DVLPG UPR LO ACRS SE CONUS...THEN RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO LWR MISSISSIPPI VLY THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK. CNTRL PLAINS RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OH VLY NORTH OF UPR LO MON- TUES...WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDCG 500 MB HEIGHTS ABV 5900M. IF THIS SHOULD VERIFY...IT WOULD MEAN A RETURN TO ABV NORM TEMPS BY NEXT WEEK. HAVE THUS WARMED MAX TEMPS FOR MON-TUES INTO M80S. RYAN && .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... CONVECTION CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS TAF SITES. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THIS TIME. .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 947 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .UPDATE... VERY QUIET WEATHER... FOR A CHANGE... IS THE RULE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. AT THE MOMENT... THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THAT THERE ARE CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS LIFT INCREASING OVERNIGHT... AND SUFFICIENT UPPER-LEVEL CAPE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. WITH THIS IN MIND... WE MAY ADD 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FOR THE POST-MIDNIGHT PERIOD... DEPENDING ON FURTHER RESEARCH AND COORDINATION. WE WILL UPDATE TEMPORAL WORDING IN THE TEXT ZONE FORECAST WHETHER OR NOT WE ADD POPS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005) DISCUSSION...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WX ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN IN THE WAKE OF CDFNT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE FCST DRY TONIGHT WITH MAIN PRECIP THREAT REMAINING TO THE S AND W OF THE FA. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH AND WEST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE AS LOW LVL S TO SELY FLOW RETURNS MOISTURE NWD AND WK S/W MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ENHANCES LIFT. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH AND EAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT TSTMS CHANCES FRTHR SW. LOOKS LIKE SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS NWLY FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES ALTHOUGH MORE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WOULD TRACK. LATER IN THE WEEK UPR RDG CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY MAKING IT LESS LIKELY STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NW WOULD MAKE IT THIS FAR SE. THUS WILL LEAVE FCST DRY FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 23/20 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .UPDATE... BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE ANALYSIS...APPEARS SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND. MAIN MCS CORE WITH THE HIGHEST LIGHTNING FREQUENCY HAS SHIFTED TO A POSITION ON THE WESTERN NOLAN COUNTY LINE JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. SENT ANOTHER UPDATE TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE BIG COUNTRY A CATEGORY AND TO ADJUST POPS AND SKY CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1105 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005) UPDATE... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING ANVIL WARMING DURING THE LAST HOUR. KDYX WSR-88D DATA INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW FORMING ALONG A SWEETWATER TO ANSON LINE. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. SENT AN UPDATE TO REFLECT BEST POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THEN...SHIFT TO THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...ADJUSTED WINDS AND SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES. WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND NOON TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 211 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... TRUE COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF I-20 EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OUT FLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF I-20. CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TAIL END OF THE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS ABOUT TO GO THROUGH BROWN COUNTY. NAM IS VERIFYING THE BEST THIS MORNING AND WILL TREND MORE TOWARDS THE NAM THIS FORECAST. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO RE-FIRE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THE HEART LAND. IN ADDITION...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND RE-DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AS WELL. INITIALLY THOUGH ABOUT TAKING POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY...BUT WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND LITTLE TO NO CAP...STORMS COULD FIRE THERE AS WELL AND THEREFORE LEFT A 20 POP OTHERWISE 30 POPS WILL FOLLOW THE MAIN BOUNDARY AS IT SHIFTS AROUND. BY 7 PM THIS AFTERNOON...MOST EVERYTHING SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY...AND KEPT A SLIGHT POP UP THERE OVERNIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING SOMETHING MAYBE FORMING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND MOVING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE LESS BULLISH ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL KEEP THE 20S JUST TO BE SAFE. BY WEDNESDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER WEST TEXAS AS DEVELOPING RIDGE TAKES HOLD IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD START TO HEAT THINGS UP AS SINKING AIR AND MORE DRY COLUMN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH THAT BEING SAID WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THINGS AS GREEN AS THEY ARE. ALSO THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN DEVELOPING THE RIDGE. LONG TERM... WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND THRU FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES BY THEN WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL FLIRT WITH THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN THE DRIEST OF THE AIRMASS. AROUND MONDAY...RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LEAVING US ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF FEATURE. THUS WILL SEE MOISTURE INCREASE AND WEATHER MAKERS START TO COME AT US FROM THE EAST. ONE FEATURE IS FORECAST POSSIBLY TO COME AT US JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MORE CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP OFF. && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. && $$ 23/HUBER tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1105 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .UPDATE... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING ANVIL WARMING DURING THE LAST HOUR. KDYX WSR-88D DATA INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW FORMING ALONG A SWEETWATER TO ANSON LINE. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. SENT AN UPDATE TO REFLECT BEST POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THEN...SHIFT TO THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...ADJUSTED WINDS AND SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES. WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND NOON TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 211 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... TRUE COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF I-20 EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OUT FLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF I-20. CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TAIL END OF THE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS ABOUT TO GO THROUGH BROWN COUNTY. NAM IS VERIFYING THE BEST THIS MORNING AND WILL TREND MORE TOWARDS THE NAM THIS FORECAST. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO RE-FIRE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THE HEART LAND. IN ADDITION...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND RE-DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AS WELL. INITIALLY THOUGH ABOUT TAKING POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY...BUT WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND LITTLE TO NO CAP...STORMS COULD FIRE THERE AS WELL AND THEREFORE LEFT A 20 POP OTHERWISE 30 POPS WILL FOLLOW THE MAIN BOUNDARY AS IT SHIFTS AROUND. BY 7 PM THIS AFTERNOON...MOST EVERYTHING SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY...AND KEPT A SLIGHT POP UP THERE OVERNIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING SOMETHING MAYBE FORMING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND MOVING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE LESS BULLISH ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL KEEP THE 20S JUST TO BE SAFE. BY WEDNESDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER WEST TEXAS AS DEVELOPING RIDGE TAKES HOLD IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD START TO HEAT THINGS UP AS SINKING AIR AND MORE DRY COLUMN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH THAT BEING SAID WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THINGS AS GREEN AS THEY ARE. ALSO THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN DEVELOPING THE RIDGE. LONG TERM... WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND THRU FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES BY THEN WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL FLIRT WITH THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN THE DRIEST OF THE AIRMASS. AROUND MONDAY...RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LEAVING US ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF FEATURE. THUS WILL SEE MOISTURE INCREASE AND WEATHER MAKERS START TO COME AT US FROM THE EAST. ONE FEATURE IS FORECAST POSSIBLY TO COME AT US JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MORE CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP OFF. && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. && $$ 23/HUBER tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 1031 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .UPDATE... COLD FRONT DRAPED ACRS NRN CWFA WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACRS CENTRAL PB. LOW LEVEL MSTR ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY IS HIGH FOR THE PB DWPNT OF 68 AT KMAF AND 60 AT KMRF. MODELS DON/T HAVE GREAT HANDLE ON MSTR ESPECIALLY ACRS TRANS PECOS. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC MST AXIS EXTENDS NWD THRU THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. 12Z KMAF SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR L90S/U60S INDICATES CAPES ABOVE AROUND 5000 J/KG. QUESTION IS WHETHER THAT AVAILABLE ENERGY WILL ABLE TO BE REALIZED. DWPNTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE MORE IN THE 55-60 RANGE AND 3HR MSL PRESSURE RISES STILL NEAR 3MB AND WITH CONVECTION TO THE NE EXPECT THAT FRONT STILL HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO MOVE FARTHER S AT LEAST IN S AND W PB DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT PW/S FCST BY RUC/NAM ARE A LITTLE UNDERDONE AND HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY TRANS PECOS. THUS HAVE SENT UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO REFLECT HIER POPS AND HEAVY RAIN IN SWRN CWFA. BOUNDARY AND ABUNDANCE OF MSTR/INSTABILITY ALSO INCREASES CONCERNS FOR SEVERE STORMS. CLOUD COVER ASSOCD WITH STORMS THE NE WILL LIKELY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS AND ADDITIONAL UPDATES EARLY THIS PM. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005/ SHORT TERM... THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW DRAPED OVER NORTHERN ZONES AND THE ROLE THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE ON CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE DO SEE THAT SURFACE PRESSURE RISES HAVE WANED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER IT IS UNKNOWN HOW MUCH OF THIS DECREASE IS THE RESULT OF THE DIURNAL PRESSURE OSCILLATION. IN ANY EVENT...WE EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO BECOME QUASISTATIONARY AND UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS ALONG ROUGHLY AN ARTESIA...PECOS...MCCAMEY...TO BIG LAKE LINE BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE NAM INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE GFS THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE PARAMETERS...WE BELIEVE THE NGM IS OVERSTATING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED BUOYANCY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... SBCAPES OVER 3000 J/KG ARE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER MIXING ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PECOS AND SOUTHERN REEVES COUNTIES. GIVEN THE WEAK STORM RELATIVE WINDS FORECAST BY THE MODELS IT APPEARS THAT PULSE MULTICELLS WILL BE THE PREFERRED CONVECTIVE MODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP MAY FAVOR HYBRID DOWNBURSTS... AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED BUOYANCY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER OVER THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND PROPAGATE TO THE WEST THIS EVENING. WE DO EXPECT THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS SURFACE BASED BUOYANCY DIMINISHES AND COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONGEAL...THEREBY LIMITING SURFACE BASED BUOYANCY FURTHER. MEANWHILE...THE QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. SENSIBLE WEATHER...POP...AND QPF GRIDS WERE DRAWN ACCORDING TO THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL EXPLAINED ABOVE. DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS FAVOR A BLEND OF THE NAM AND NAM GUIDANCE...WHILE MAXT AND MINT GRIDS REFLECT A BLEND OF THE NAM AND NAM GUIDANCE MIXED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKY GRIDS ARE AN EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT CONDITIONS IN CLOSE...THEN CORRELATED TO THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LONG TERM... RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK STILL ANTICIPATED WITH OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COASTS. ON WEDNESDAY MENTIONED ISOLATED POPS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN MODEST INSTABILITY IN UPSLOPE FLOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME MAY BRING A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...BUT LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS SCENARIO. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY KEPT ISOLATED MENTION OF CONVECTION IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS IN EXTREME WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO NEAR WEAK LEE TROUGH DUE TO VERY INTENSE HEATING AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BOOST FROM MOUNTAINS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THE DRYLINE MAY SHIFT FURTHER EAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE WEST. VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. WENT WITH AN ISOLATED POP IN THE LOWER TRANS PECOS IN THE MUCH WEAKER 700 MILLIBAR FLOW AND DRYLINE GETTING BOOST FROM HIGHER TERRAIN. REMOVED POPS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AS WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY BE TOUGH FOR CAP TO BREAK UNDER THE RIDGE. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANT BE RULED OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS ON MONDAY IN UPSLOPE FLOW BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING THIS FAR OUT. BY NEXT TUESDAY SIGNS ARE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE NORTH AND WEST...ALLOWING DISTURBANCES TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD TEXAS. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY WITH CORRESPONDING DECREASING TEMPERATURES. DISTURBANCES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FROM THE EAST BEYOND THIS FORECAST CYCLE. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1010 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATED TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AS WATCH NUMBER 483 FOR OUR CWA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...WHILE LOWERING POPS IN THE EAST AS BROKEN SQUALL LINE EXITS THIS EVENING...HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 1 AM. FRONT STILL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND KENTUCKY EARLY THIS EVENING MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT. LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STILL SOME LEFT OVER INSTABILITY SO THAT WITH A LITTLE FORCING THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. EVEN THIS EVENING RUC AND NAM MODELS INDICATE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED SKY AND HOURLY TEMPS FROM THIS EVENINGS TRENDS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 645 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) AVIATION... LINE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF BOUNDARIES OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS SE OHIO...NE KY...AND EXTREME WESTERN WV WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION SHIFTS EASTWARD. COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED WITH ANY MAJOR WIND CHANGE...JUST A SHIFT BECOMING MORE WESTWARD. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER NEAR 06Z...SWINGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION POSSIBLE PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PKB TO EKN. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE LOW POSSIBILITY WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON TSRA OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 550 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATED FOR WATCH NUMBER 483. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 241 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE INTO THIS EVENING AND NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE AS SEVERE WEATHER HAS ALREADY STARTED PANNING OUT JUST UPSTREAM OF FORECAST AREA. RUC...NAM AND GFS LESS BULLISH WITH EVENT NOW WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH LOWER POPS. THIS APPEARS AT ODDS WITH ACTIVITY UPSTREAM BUT IT APPEARS MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...A DIFFERENCE WHICH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SHEAR THINGS OUT AS WE MOVE INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER DIV IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE ON NAM ANYMORE EXCEPT NORTH OF FORECAST AREA AND OTHER MODELS AGREE...GFS WAS NEVER THAT BULLISH HERE. OPTED TO STAY WITH LIKELY POPS...NEITHER INCREASING NOR DECREASING FOR THE TIME BEING AND THIS IS A COMPROMISE OF SORTS. LOWER MAV NUMBERS ON LOWS TONIGHT MOST LOCATIONS REFLECT FASTER TIMING OF PARENT MODEL ON PROGRESS OF FRONT AND WENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 210 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING COULD HELP SPARK AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN IN THE MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURE WISE...NOT A LOT OF COOLING AT THE SFC UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN LOW TO MID 70S ARE FIGURED. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF LOW POPS ALL TOGETHER. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMV wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 645 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .AVIATION... LINE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF BOUNDARIES OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS SE OHIO...NE KY...AND EXTREME WESTERN WV WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION SHIFTS EASTWARD. COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED WITH ANY MAJOR WIND CHANGE...JUST A SHIFT BECOMING MORE WESTWARD. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER NEAR 06Z...SWINGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION POSSIBLE PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PKB TO EKN. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE LOW POSSIBILITY WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON TSRA OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 550 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATED FOR WATCH NUMBER 483. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 241 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE INTO THIS EVENING AND NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE AS SEVERE WEATHER HAS ALREADY STARTED PANNING OUT JUST UPSTREAM OF FORECAST AREA. RUC...NAM AND GFS LESS BULLISH WITH EVENT NOW WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH LOWER POPS. THIS APPEARS AT ODDS WITH ACTIVITY UPSTREAM BUT IT APPEARS MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...A DIFFERENCE WHICH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SHEAR THINGS OUT AS WE MOVE INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER DIV IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE ON NAM ANYMORE EXCEPT NORTH OF FORECAST AREA AND OTHER MODELS AGREE...GFS WAS NEVER THAT BULLISH HERE. OPTED TO STAY WITH LIKELY POPS...NEITHER INCREASING NOR DECREASING FOR THE TIME BEING AND THIS IS A COMPROMISE OF SORTS. LOWER MAV NUMBERS ON LOWS TONIGHT MOST LOCATIONS REFLECT FASTER TIMING OF PARENT MODEL ON PROGRESS OF FRONT AND WENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 210 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING COULD HELP SPARK AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN IN THE MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURE WISE...NOT A LOT OF COOLING AT THE SFC UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN LOW TO MID 70S ARE FIGURED. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF LOW POPS ALL TOGETHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (18Z TO 18Z)... (ISSUED 125 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) AVIATION... OVERNIGHT FOG WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MIXED THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT. COUPLE OF LINES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING IN FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. OTHER THAN A FEW POP UP STORMS...HAVE TIMED THE FIRST LINE TO APPROACH HTS AROUND 2030Z...AND PKB MORE TOWARDS 21Z. AS THESE STORMS NEAR...MAY NEED TO INCREASE POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS ABOVE THE 40KTS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN SITES. OTHERWISE...FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP BKN MID DECK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH MORE BREAKS FIGURED SOUTH OF PKB AND CKB. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1158 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... WATCH BOX 480 SVR ISSUED JUST AS I WAS READY TO ISSUE SHORT TERM UPDATE SO TIMING WORKED WELL. ILN SOUNDING SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO CAP AND CU ALREADY GOING UP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. CAPES UP TO 2500 J/KG ON LOW 70S DEW POINTS...AND 35-45 KTS THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...COUPLED WITH GOOD UPPER DIV AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...MAKE SEVERE ALL BUT A SLAM DUNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WITH WET BULB HIGH AND SHEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. SOUTHERN EDGE OF THREAT NEAR HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR LOOKS GOOD AS MEAN WIND AND UPPER DIVERGENCE DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THERE GIVEN TRACK OF SHORT WAVE. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST. CHANGED WEATHER TERMS TO COVERAGE AND LIMITED THUNDERSTORM THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS STABILITY IS LOST BEFORE DAWN. TEMPERATURES BY AND LARGE ON TRACK. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...KF wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 550 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATED FOR WATCH NUMBER 483. NOT MUCH CHNAGE TO THE FORECAST NEEDED. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 241 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE INTO THIS EVENING AND NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE AS SEVERE WEATHER HAS ALREADY STARTED PANNING OUT JUST UPSTREAM OF FORECAST AREA. RUC...NAM AND GFS LESS BULLISH WITH EVENT NOW WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH LOWER POPS. THIS APPEARS AT ODDS WITH ACTIVITY UPSTREAM BUT IT APPEARS MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...A DIFFERENCE WHICH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SHEAR THINGS OUT AS WE MOVE INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER DIV IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE ON NAM ANYMORE EXCEPT NORTH OF FORECAST AREA AND OTHER MODELS AGREE...GFS WAS NEVER THAT BULLISH HERE. OPTED TO STAY WITH LIKELY POPS...NEITHER INCREASING NOR DECREASING FOR THE TIME BEING AND THIS IS A COMPROMISE OF SORTS. LOWER MAV NUMBERS ON LOWS TONIGHT MOST LOCATIONS REFLECT FASTER TIMING OF PARENT MODEL ON PROGRESS OF FRONT AND WENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 210 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING COULD HELP SPARK AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN IN THE MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURE WISE...NOT A LOT OF COOLING AT THE SFC UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN LOW TO MID 70S ARE FIGURED. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF LOW POPS ALL TOGETHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (18Z TO 18Z)... (ISSUED 125 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) AVIATION... OVERNIGHT FOG WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MIXED THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT. COUPLE OF LINES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING IN FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. OTHER THAN A FEW POP UP STORMS...HAVE TIMED THE FIRST LINE TO APPROACH HTS AROUND 2030Z...AND PKB MORE TOWARDS 21Z. AS THESE STORMS NEAR...MAY NEED TO INCREASE POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS ABOVE THE 40KTS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN SITES. OTHERWISE...FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP BKN MID DECK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH MORE BREAKS FIGURED SOUTH OF PKB AND CKB. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1158 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... WATCH BOX 480 SVR ISSUED JUST AS I WAS READY TO ISSUE SHORT TERM UPDATE SO TIMING WORKED WELL. ILN SOUNDING SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO CAP AND CU ALREADY GOING UP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. CAPES UP TO 2500 J/KG ON LOW 70S DEW POINTS...AND 35-45 KTS THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...COUPLED WITH GOOD UPPER DIV AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...MAKE SEVERE ALL BUT A SLAM DUNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WITH WET BULB HIGH AND SHEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. SOUTHERN EDGE OF THREAT NEAR HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR LOOKS GOOD AS MEAN WIND AND UPPER DIVERGENCE DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THERE GIVEN TRACK OF SHORT WAVE. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST. CHANGED WEATHER TERMS TO COVERAGE AND LIMITED THUNDERSTORM THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS STABILITY IS LOST BEFORE DAWN. TEMPERATURES BY AND LARGE ON TRACK. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TRM wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 241 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE INTO THIS EVENING AND NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE AS SEVERE WEATHER HAS ALREADY STARTED PANNING OUT JUST UPSTREAM OF FORECAST AREA. RUC...NAM AND GFS LESS BULLISH WITH EVENT NOW WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH LOWER POPS. THIS APPEARS AT ODDS WITH ACTIVITY UPSTREAM BUT IT APPEARS MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...A DIFFERENCE WHICH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SHEAR THINGS OUT AS WE MOVE INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER DIV IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE ON NAM ANYMORE EXCEPT NORTH OF FORECAST AREA AND OTHER MODELS AGREE...GFS WAS NEVER THAT BULLISH HERE. OPTED TO STAY WITH LIKELY POPS...NEITHER INCREASING NOR DECREASING FOR THE TIME BEING AND THIS IS A COMPROMISE OF SORTS. LOWER MAV NUMBERS ON LOWS TONIGHT MOST LOCATIONS REFLECT FASTER TIMING OF PARENT MODEL ON PROGRESS OF FRONT AND WENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 210 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING COULD HELP SPARK AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN IN THE MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURE WISE...NOT A LOT OF COOLING AT THE SFC UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN LOW TO MID 70S ARE FIGURED. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF LOW POPS ALL TOGETHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (18Z TO 18Z)... (ISSUED 125 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) AVIATION... OVERNIGHT FOG WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MIXED THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT. COUPLE OF LINES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING IN FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. OTHER THAN A FEW POP UP STORMS...HAVE TIMED THE FIRST LINE TO APPROACH HTS AROUND 2030Z...AND PKB MORE TOWARDS 21Z. AS THESE STORMS NEAR...MAY NEED TO INCREASE POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS ABOVE THE 40KTS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN SITES. OTHERWISE...FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP BKN MID DECK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH MORE BREAKS FIGURED SOUTH OF PKB AND CKB. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1158 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... WATCH BOX 480 SVR ISSUED JUST AS I WAS READY TO ISSUE SHORT TERM UPDATE SO TIMING WORKED WELL. ILN SOUNDING SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO CAP AND CU ALREADY GOING UP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. CAPES UP TO 2500 J/KG ON LOW 70S DEW POINTS...AND 35-45 KTS THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...COUPLED WITH GOOD UPPER DIV AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...MAKE SEVERE ALL BUT A SLAM DUNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WITH WET BULB HIGH AND SHEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. SOUTHERN EDGE OF THREAT NEAR HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR LOOKS GOOD AS MEAN WIND AND UPPER DIVERGENCE DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THERE GIVEN TRACK OF SHORT WAVE. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST. CHANGED WEATHER TERMS TO COVERAGE AND LIMITED THUNDERSTORM THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS STABILITY IS LOST BEFORE DAWN. TEMPERATURES BY AND LARGE ON TRACK. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TRM wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 300 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 .SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK VORT MAX OVER WEST CENTRAL MN DROPPING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARD THE CWA. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SOME LIGHT RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING OVER OUR REGION. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FORECAST TODAY FOCUSES ON MODEST PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE INDUCED BY CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF THE VORT MAX ABOUT THE TIME OF MAX HEATING IN THE JUNE SUN SUPPORT CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST VORT TRACK WITH LESSER POPS (AND CLOUD COVER) TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM EXITS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON...THUS CLEARING SHOULD BE RAPID THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR A COOL NIGHT. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK CAA AND CLOUD COVER. PREFER COOLER MAV VALUES SINCE THE GFS DID A BETTER JOB INITIALIZING (AND PRESUMABLY FORECASTING) 850MB TEMPS THAN DID THE NAM...THOUGH WE PROBABLY WON'T MIX OUT QUITE THAT HIGH. WOLF && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT... WITH MINIMAL FORECAST ISSUES OF TEMP WARM-UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS AGREE WELL WITH DEVELOPMENT OF OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN THURSDAY AND MAINTAIN IT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH CUTOFF LOW RETROGRADING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROGRESSION OF THAT LOW WILL HELP BRING SURFACE WINDS AROUND FROM NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY FRI/SAT TO SOUTHEASTERLY SUN/MON... WHICH WILL HELP PUSH BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HIGHER BENEATH THE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL EARLY IN THE PERIOD... WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW... CLEAR SKIES... AND LOW DEWPOINTS. AREA WILL MODERATE TO NEAR CLIMO TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. BELIEVE THAT WE COULD REALLY HEAT UP EARLY NEXT WEEK... AND BUMPED UP TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS. OVERALL... THE STORY IS WARMING AND DRY. COOLER TEMPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD KEEP VEGETATION FROM DRYING OUT QUICKLY... BUT RISK OF DROUGHT EXISTS WITH LONG-TERM PATTERN INDICATING DRYNESS FOR A WHILE... PARTICULARLY AS THINGS HEAT UP NEXT WEEK. ..MAYES.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ WOLF/MAYES ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 331 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE -SHRA TODAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT-TERM. CURRENT WEATHER...07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHEARING OUT OVER WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN DUE TO A SHRTWV TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BEHIND THESE TWO FEATURES...AND THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BRING MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER TO UPPER MICHIGAN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PERSIST PER KMQT RADAR LOOP ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEARING OUT UPPER LOW. ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 00Z SOUNDINGS AT APX...GRB AND INL REFLECT THIS CLOUDINESS WITH NEAR OR NEAR-SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 800-600MB. MUCH DRIER AIR FLOWING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO AS NOTED BY THE CLEARING SKIES. LATEST OBSERVATION FROM THUNDER BAY HAS A FEW SPRINKLES WITH A 5200FT DECK...INDICATIVE OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRYING. AT THE SURFACE...996MB LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CHANNEL. NE WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ALONG WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND UPSLOPE IS ALLOWING FOG AND DRIZZLE TO REMAIN OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. TODAY...SHRTWV OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DROPPING SOUTH WILL HELP THE SHEARED OUT UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD...TAKING THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE EXPECT DRYING TO START MOVING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING. BY 20Z...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THE NEWBERRY AREA. ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BRINGING CHILLY AIR IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN (LAKE SUPERIOR WATER TEMPS IN THE OPEN WATERS AROUND 38 DEGREES PER BUOYS). SOUTHERN U.P. WILL FEEL MORE OF THE EFFECTS OF 8C 850MB TEMPS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE IN MNM AND IMT DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. TONIGHT...MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IN STORE WITH DRY AIR SETTLING IN OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT. DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE DEWPOINTS THOUGH AS WINDS STAY UP BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW WHICH IS PROGGED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO MINNESOTA. NONETHELESS... READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SEEM REASONABLE...COOLEST IN THE FAR WEST WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. THURSDAY...SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON THE TRACK OF THE NORTHERN END OF THE SHRTWV OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE 00Z GFS BRINGS THE NORTH END...WHICH DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LOW...NEAR CHEBOYGAN BY 18Z THU. THE NAM HAS THIS UPPER LOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY. THIS DIFFERENCE IN POSITION WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF WHERE CLOUDS AND -SHRA WILL BE. CANADIAN/UKMET FOLLOW THE GFS IDEA...AND FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS. EXPECT SOME -SHRA TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE MORNING DUE TO THE DPVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF LAKE STABILIZATION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER DAY OF COOL TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN U.P. IS IN STORE DUE TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE 4-6C RANGE. THURSDAY NIGHT...GFS SHOWS SOME QPF MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THIS OCCURRING WITH ISENTROPIC DESCENT...LACK OF ANY UPPER JET AND THE DIURNAL COOLING PERIOD. BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALSO REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED CHANCES OF SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS AGAIN COOL IN THE INTERIOR WEST DUE TO DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FOLLOWED MAV COOP GUIDANCE. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING TREND BEGINS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE INTERIOR AS NORTH WINDS ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE NORTHERLIES AS THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN TO THE NORTH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8-12C...READINGS IN THE INTERIOR SHOULD CLIMB AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S. AGAIN LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE WILL HOLD BACK IN THE UPPER 50S DUE TO THE NORTH WINDS. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY. HAVE 40F IN THE INTERIOR AT THE MOMENT...BUT SHOULD DEWPOINTS BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR FROST POTENTIAL. SATURDAY AND BEYOND...LATEST ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...IT LOOKS LIKE 80S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET TO SPREAD NORTH INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY SUN. THIS WARM AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...THEN WARM EVEN FURTHER ON MON. READINGS AROUND 90 STILL LOOK LIKELY SINCE 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 18C. BOTH ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT ON TUE AS A SHRTWV DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN LOOK AT FURTHER AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 211 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2005 .AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO PIVOT SLOWLY E ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. S/W TO ROTATE THRU THE SRN GRTLKS AROUND THIS UPPER LOW TODAY. EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CU DEVELOP TDA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACRS THE N WHERE COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT WL EXIST. A FEW INSTABILITY SHWRS WL BE PSBL DURG AFTN MAINLY ACRS THE N. FCST SOUNDING SHOW CAP AROUND 7H ACRS THE S WHICH SHUD LIMIT THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF SHOWERS. DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE KEPT TAF SITES DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU THE FCST PERIOD. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 855 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)... A FEW SHOWERS STILL TRYING TO GET GOING RIGHT ALONG FRONT AS IT IS PUSHING EAST TOWARD CENTRAL OHIO. AS WE ARE NOW STARTING TO COOL...CHANCES OF ANYTHING DEVELOPING WITH FRONT ARE DIMINISHING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS BUT WILL LIKELY UPDATE FORECAST SHORTLY TO REMOVE EVENING POPS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AS REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... SVR TSTMS ONGOING ACRS FCST AREA ATTM. TSTMS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO SQUALL LINE FROM NEAR LANCASTER SE INTO NRN KY. APPEARS GREATEST INSTABILITY RESIDES IN SOUTH CNTRL OH AND NE KY...WHERE CURRENT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO L90S AND RUC INDCG SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE HAD A BIT MORE TROUBLE GETTING GOING NORTH OF I-70...AND APPEARS THAT SOME MID LVL SUBSIDENCE MAY BE THE CULPRIT. SVR TS WATCH #480 CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 23Z FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS WESTERN INDIANA. BNDRY WILL SHIFT EAST ACRS FCST AREA BTWN 22Z AND 03Z. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES UNTIL FROPA...ALTHOUGH MOST EXTENSIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER NEXT TWO HOURS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-71. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP GOOD PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FCST UNTIL RIGHT AT 20Z. PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF FCST AREA BY LATE EVNG AS FRNTL BNDRY SHIFTS EAST OF REGION. NICE DRY PUNCH INTO FCST AREA AFT MIDNIGHT...AND WILL GO PTLY CLDY FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPR LO WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL GRT LKS ON WED...AND WILL BE A MAIN FACTOR IN WX FOR REGION THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM. MID LVL S/WV WILL DROP AROUND BASE OF UPR TROF INTO NRN OH WED AFTN. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST 850 CAA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS BY AFTN AND THE CHANCE FOR SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP. BEST SHOT AT PCPN WILL BE ACRS NRN FCST AREA...AND HAVE INDCG 30 POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS. LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH...WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. 12Z NAM INDCG 500- 1000 J/KG SBCAPES...SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF TSTMS. PCPN WILL END DURING EVNG HOURS AS MID LVL VORT AND SFC TROF SHIFT EAST OF REGION. UPR LO BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST ON THURS WITH ANOTHER S/WV SHIFTING ACRS NRN OHIO THURS AFTN. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ON THURS...AND SHOULD SEE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PCPN. INCLUDED LO CHC POPS GENERALLY ACRS NRN/ERN PORTIONS FCST AREA FOR THURS AFTN. WDLY SCT -SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACRS CNTRL OH THURS NIGHT AS UPR LO DROPS INTO NRN PA. TEMPS...A CHANGE IS IN THE WORKS AFT EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABV NORM TEMPS. FOLLOWED MAV GUID CLOSELY THRU SHORT TERM. HIGHS IN U70S TO AROUND 80 ON WED WILL DROP BACK INTO L/M70S FOR THURS AS COLD POOL ASSOCD WITH UPR LO SHIFTS SOUTH FROM GRT LKS. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. RYAN LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... EXTENDED MODELS NOW IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING UPR LO EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HI PRES TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OH VLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. MAINTAINED A 20 POP ACRS NE FCST AREA FRI MRNG...THEN SHOULD SEE DRY WX AS UPR LO PULLS AWAY FROM REGION. DRY WX EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF EXTENDED WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO GRT LKS AND OH VLY. MODELS DIFFERING A BIT ON PLACEMENT OF DVLPG UPR LO ACRS SE CONUS...THEN RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO LWR MISSISSIPPI VLY THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK. CNTRL PLAINS RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OH VLY NORTH OF UPR LO MON- TUES...WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDCG 500 MB HEIGHTS ABV 5900M. IF THIS SHOULD VERIFY...IT WOULD MEAN A RETURN TO ABV NORM TEMPS BY NEXT WEEK. HAVE THUS WARMED MAX TEMPS FOR MON-TUES INTO M80S. RYAN && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 340 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... AT 07Z SURFACE FRONT NR A HLG-PKB-HTS-JKL LINE. FLOW ALOFT ALREADY TURNED TO W. FEW SPRINKLES OR SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER WV MOUNTAINS THRU ABOUT 12Z. DRIER W FLOW TODAY. NOTICEABLE WIND FOR JUNE. SURFACE GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH IN LOWLANDS. SUPPORT REMAINING TO OUR N FOR TODAY...WILL PULL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK FURTHER N...FOR LATE DAY LIGHT SHOWER N-NW PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA. NOT MUCH COOLING ALOFT TODAY...THAT COMES TNGT AND THU. SO TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TODAY SHOULD BE MORE COMFORTABLE. WENT TOWARD THE WARMER MAV. LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND AND GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT DOES IT WILL TRACK A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND YET ANOTHER LATE FRIDAY. THESE FEATURES ARE WEAK IN NATURE AND NOT MUCH LIFT WITH THEM...ONLY WENT SLGT CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS AND KEPT IT DRY ELSEWHERE. SPRING RETURNS AS WELL WITH 85H TEMPS OF 6 TO 7 DEGREES INVADE THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL BE THE GENERAL TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 121 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2005) AVIATION... COLD FRONT AT 05Z NR ZZV TO W OF HTS THEN TO SME IN SRN KY. ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER WV MTNS...THRU 09Z. SOME FOG FROM THE RAIN COOLED AIR...IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF SRN WV INCLUDING NEAR BKW...BUT WAS HOPING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRONG ENOUGH TO JUST HAVE A FEW PATCHES DRIFT ACROSS BKW BEFORE 06-09Z. STRONGER THAN NORMAL LOW LEVEL FLOW THRU 00Z WITH THE FRESHER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS...RESULTING IN GOOD VISIBILITY. FIGURING ON MAINLY SCT SOUTH TO SCT TO BKN CU/SC DURING THE DAY. STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD INCREASE FROM NW TO SE DRUING THE 03 TO 06Z WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1010 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATED TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AS WATCH NUMBER 483 FOR OUR CWA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...WHILE LOWERING POPS IN THE EAST AS BROKEN SQUALL LINE EXITS THIS EVENING...HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 1 AM. FRONT STILL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND KENTUCKY EARLY THIS EVENING MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT. LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STILL SOME LEFT OVER INSTABILITY SO THAT WITH A LITTLE FORCING THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. EVEN THIS EVENING RUC AND NAM MODELS INDICATE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED SKY AND HOURLY TEMPS FROM THIS EVENINGS TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 210 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING COULD HELP SPARK AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN IN THE MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURE WISE...NOT A LOT OF COOLING AT THE SFC UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN LOW TO MID 70S ARE FIGURED. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF LOW POPS ALL TOGETHER. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KTB/JS wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 121 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2005 .AVIATION... COLD FRONT AT 05Z NR ZZV TO W OF HTS THEN TO SME IN SRN KY. ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER WV MTNS...THRU 09Z. SOME FOG FROM THE RAIN COOLED AIR...IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF SRN WV INCLUDING NEAR BKW...BUT WAS HOPING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRONG ENOUGH TO JUST HAVE A FEW PATCHES DRIFT ACROSS BKW BEFORE 06-09Z. STRONGER THAN NORMAL LOW LEVEL FLOW THRU 00Z WITH THE FRESHER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS...RESULTING IN GOOD VISIBILITY. FIGURING ON MAINLY SCT SOUTH TO SCT TO BKN CU/SC DURING THE DAY. STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD INCREASE FROM NW TO SE DRUING THE 03 TO 06Z WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1010 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATED TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AS WATCH NUMBER 483 FOR OUR CWA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...WHILE LOWERING POPS IN THE EAST AS BROKEN SQUALL LINE EXITS THIS EVENING...HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 1 AM. FRONT STILL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND KENTUCKY EARLY THIS EVENING MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT. LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STILL SOME LEFT OVER INSTABILITY SO THAT WITH A LITTLE FORCING THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. EVEN THIS EVENING RUC AND NAM MODELS INDICATE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED SKY AND HOURLY TEMPS FROM THIS EVENINGS TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 645 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) AVIATION... LINE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF BOUNDARIES OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS SE OHIO...NE KY...AND EXTREME WESTERN WV WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION SHIFTS EASTWARD. COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED WITH ANY MAJOR WIND CHANGE...JUST A SHIFT BECOMING MORE WESTWARD. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER NEAR 06Z...SWINGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION POSSIBLE PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PKB TO EKN. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE LOW POSSIBILITY WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON TSRA OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 210 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING COULD HELP SPARK AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN IN THE MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURE WISE...NOT A LOT OF COOLING AT THE SFC UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN LOW TO MID 70S ARE FIGURED. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF LOW POPS ALL TOGETHER. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...KTB wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 320 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES TODAY...DRY PERIOD THEREAFTER. H5 LOW OPENING UP INTO LWR MI WITH RUC/WATER VAPOR SHOWING A COUPLE OF VORT MAXES...BOTH IN MN...THAT WILL COME DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF UPR TROF TODAY. SFC TROF AXIS ALSO COMING INTO PLAY TODAY. 11/3 SHOWS THE INVASION OF LOW CLOUDINESS. GIVEN COLDER H8 TEMPS AND THE CLOUDS...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE TODAY...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3HRLY NAM/GFS GUID THAN 12 HR VALUES. STILL RATHER CYCLONIC LOOKING ON THU WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW ROTATING SWD INTO LWR MI. MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS IN ERN CWA THAN WRN CWA...ESP WITH COOLISH NAM H5 TEMPS...H8 THERMAL TROF NOTED AS WELL. IN FACT GFS REALLY BACKS COOL H8 TEMPS INTO CWA THU NGT/ERLY FRI THO WILL LEAN TOWARDS NAM THERMAL STRUCTURE FOR NOW. GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWING DRY REGIME INTO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING KEEPING PCPN CHCS ON HOLD. .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1045 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2005 ...DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE AMOUNT OF CLOUDCOVER/DRYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AND RESULTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. CURRENT...14Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY PUSHING TO THE EAST TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO. LINGERING MOISTURE/CLOUDCOVER BACK OVER UPPER LAKES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE AS SIGNIFICANT DRY PUSH AND SUBSIDENCE CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. 12Z TAMDAR SOUNDINGS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DRYING BETWEEN 900-700 MB ALREADY OCCURRING...AND THIS IS BACKED UP BY RECENT VISIBLE SAT IMAGES SHOWING NEARLY CLEAR SKIES NOW OVERTAKING THIS REGION AND EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT TO CONCERNED WITH THE GOING FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. AS SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING AND REMAINING CEILINGS HAVE RISEN ABOVE 8000 FT AS NOTED BY 14Z KCMX OBSERVATION. A BIT MORE CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HAVE SLOWED THE WARMUP DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SHOWER ACTIVITY/LOW CEILINGS HAVE BEEN A BIT STUBBORN THIS MORNING WITH GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW AIDING IN THE PROCESS. OTHER CONCERN FOR THIS REGION IS WITH IMPACTS FROM ONE ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCE WELL NOTED BY 12Z RUC THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COULD HELP HOLD SOME PERIODIC LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GOING FORECAST WITH ECHO COVERAGE DECREASING RAPIDLY OVER PAST HOUR OR TWO AND DO EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN U.P BY MID AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST. . PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TONIGHT...MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IN STORE WITH DRY AIR SETTLING IN OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT. DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE DEWPOINTS THOUGH AS WINDS STAY UP BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW WHICH IS PROGGED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO MINNESOTA. NONETHELESS... READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SEEM REASONABLE...COOLEST IN THE FAR WEST WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. THURSDAY...SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON THE TRACK OF THE NORTHERN END OF THE SHRTWV OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE 00Z GFS BRINGS THE NORTH END...WHICH DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LOW...NEAR CHEBOYGAN BY 18Z THU. THE NAM HAS THIS UPPER LOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY. THIS DIFFERENCE IN POSITION WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF WHERE CLOUDS AND -SHRA WILL BE. CANADIAN/UKMET FOLLOW THE GFS IDEA...AND FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS. EXPECT SOME -SHRA TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE MORNING DUE TO THE DPVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF LAKE STABILIZATION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER DAY OF COOL TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN U.P. IS IN STORE DUE TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE 4-6C RANGE. THURSDAY NIGHT...GFS SHOWS SOME QPF MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.P. DURING THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THIS OCCURRING WITH ISENTROPIC DESCENT...LACK OF ANY UPPER JET AND THE DIURNAL COOLING PERIOD. BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALSO REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED CHANCES OF SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS AGAIN COOL IN THE INTERIOR WEST DUE TO DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FOLLOWED MAV COOP GUIDANCE. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING TREND BEGINS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE INTERIOR AS NORTH WINDS ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE NORTHERLIES AS THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN TO THE NORTH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8-12C...READINGS IN THE INTERIOR SHOULD CLIMB AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S. AGAIN LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE WILL HOLD BACK IN THE UPPER 50S DUE TO THE NORTH WINDS. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY. HAVE 40F IN THE INTERIOR AT THE MOMENT...BUT SHOULD DEWPOINTS BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR FROST POTENTIAL. SATURDAY AND BEYOND...LATEST ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...IT LOOKS LIKE 80S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET TO SPREAD NORTH INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY SUN. THIS WARM AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...THEN WARM EVEN FURTHER ON MON. READINGS AROUND 90 STILL LOOK LIKELY SINCE 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 18C. BOTH ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT ON TUE AS A SHRTWV DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN LOOK AT FURTHER AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MROCZKA LONG TERM...AJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 302 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TIMING AND LEVEL OF POPS FIRST 24 HOURS, AND AGAIN 36-48 HOURS OUT. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR ANY CONVECTION TO WORK WITH, SO WENT WITH 50 POPS EARLY TONIGHT IN WEST, WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE, AND BRING 60 POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT, WITH STRONG WINDS A SECONDARY CONCERN. THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG, NOR IS THE OVERALL SHEAR PROFILE, THUS TORNADOES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. IN CERTAIN PARTS OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST, HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. CHECKING THE 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM 15/12Z, IT WOULD TAKE 3.0-3.3 INCHES IN 6 HOURS TO CAUSE PROBLEMS, AND DO NOT EXPECT THAT MUCH RAIN, MORE LIKE 1.0 INCHES IN MOST HEAVY SPOTS. -LATE ADDITION: SPC JUST ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #484, THE THE EXACT AREA I HAD SEVERE WORDING IN ZONES. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE JUST HOW MUCH OF AN MCS FORMS TONIGHT, AS THERE WILL BE DIFFERENT FORCES COMING INTO PLAY. ONE IS A SHORT WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN COLORADO AND DIVING ESE OVERNIGHT. IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH FROM OKLAHOMA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. THE LATEST RUC FROM 18Z BREAKS OUT A LITTLE LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 21Z, AND THE CURRENT RADAR LOOP WOULD INDICATE THE FOCUS REGION HAS MOVED FARTHER EAST THAN PRATT/MEDICINE LODGE ALREADY BY 18Z. THUS, WILL NOT LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION THERE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER MCS IS LIKELY TO FORM THURSDAY EVENING, PERHAPS JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN TONIGHT'S. IF SO, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TIME TO UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR MORE PRECISE LOCATIONS AND HIGHER POPS IF NEEDED. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE MCS FORMATION REGION WILL BE NEAR OR TOO FAR SOUTH TO AFFECT DDC'S CWA. WENT WITH A BLANKET POP 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. DID NOT CHANGE MINS TONIGHT OR THURSDAY NIGHT, NOR MAXT'S FOR THURSDAY, AS THEY SEEMED ON TRACK. DID STRUGGLE A BIT TO GET SURROUNDING OFFICES TO COME DOWN ON MAXT'S FOR FRIDAY, BUT MOST CONCURRED. IF THE MCS EXITS AS FORECAST, A FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH, LEAVING US IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. ALSO, CLOUDS WILL EITHER LINGER OR RE-DEVELOP AS THE COLD AIR, AND THUS THINK TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW TO MID 80S MAY NOT STILL BE COOL ENOUGH. DAYS 3-7... THE PRIMARY WORD FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE: RIDGE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. WE MAY GET ONE MORE NIGHT OF MCS ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND, SO KEPT THE LOW POPS GOING THERE. AFTER THAT, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPS WILL BE BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY ON TRACK SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO WHAT WE HAD GOING. THINK THAT THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS START TO SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY THE RIDGE. THINK WE COULD START TO GET SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AGAIN LATE IN THE 8-10 DAY PERIOD AS THE JET COMES BACK SOUTH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 66 88 66 82 / 50 0 20 20 GCK 64 88 64 82 / 40 20 20 20 EHA 63 92 64 83 / 40 20 20 20 LBL 65 91 65 82 / 40 20 20 20 HYS 64 87 65 80 / 50 0 20 20 P28 67 90 67 83 / 60 0 20 20 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .KS...NONE. && $$ 12/26 ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 155 PM MDT WED JUN 15 2005 .DISCUSSION...MSAS DATA CURRENTLY SHOWING A WEAK LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THOSE TWO FEATURES ARE HELPING TO CREATE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INCREASE MOISTURE. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT BY THE MID 60 DEWPOINTS CREEPING INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TODAY/TONIGHT...AMPLE HEATING AND THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL HELP TO ESTABLISH UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE TERRAIN IN COLORADO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE 0-6KM WIND BEING 15-20 KTS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BOTH THE NAM AND RUC SHOW A DECENT INSTABILITY AXIS NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE CAP ACROSS THE EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO HOLD IT LONGER...WHILE THE RUC ERODES IT BY 21Z. CURRENT THINKING IS TO GO WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE RUC AS SOME CU IS SEEN ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IN THE EAST. ASSUMING THE CAP DOES BREAK...STORMS THAT MAKE IT EASTWARD SHOULD HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL OF BEING SUPER-CELLULAR IN NATURE. SHEAR VALUES ALSO SUPPORT THIS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH 850 JET AND SOME CONVERGENCE NOSING INTO THE AREA. WITH THAT SAID...DID ADJUST POPS FOR TONIGHT AND INCREASED QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT ENDED PRECIP BY MORNING. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TOMORROW WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE FLOW SEEMS TO BE STRONGER...WHICH WOULD CONFINE STORMS TO THE TERRAIN IN COLORADO EARLY ON AND EASTERLY PROGRESSION LATE. SLIGHT CHANGE MADE TO TOMORROW NIGHTS POPS AND QPF...MAINLY ORIENTATION. GFS AND NAM CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. INSTEAD OF PUSHING CONVECTION/MCS FROM NEBRASKA DUE SOUTH IN CENTRAL CWA...MODELS TAKE IT FURTHER WEST AND ALONG A BOUNDARY. THIS MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER BACKING RIDGE IN THE EAST. RAISED QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS STORMS WILL HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT OFF OF THE BOUNDARY AND AN AMPLE MOISTURE AXIS TO WORK WITH. FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP...BUT LEFT OVER BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DID HOWEVER...LOWERED MAXES A FEW AS UPSLOPE REGIME AND COOLER 850 TEMPS SETTLE OVER THE AREA. RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH A SEMI OMEGA BLOCK IN THE PATTERN. KEPT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...HOT AND DRY. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .KS...NONE. .NE...NONE. .CO...NONE. && $$ MBM ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 446 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHC OF SHRA EAST ON THU AND OTHERWISE CLDS/TEMPS THROUGH FCST PD. CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW BROAD MID LVL LOW OVER WRN QUEBEC WITH AN AMPLIFIED RDG OVER THE WRN PLAINS STATES AND A CLOSED LOW DIGGING INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THAT LINGERING CLOUD COVER ON BACKSIDE OF LOW OVER QUEBEC IS BEGINNING TO ERODE OVER THE UPR GRT LKS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER ANOTHER MASS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS IS HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVER JAMES BAY AREA. THESE CLOUDS COULD SPREAD OVER ERN HALF OF FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THU AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. TONIGHT...GIVEN THE FACT THAT HIGHS WERE QUITE COLD OVER AREA TODAY AND THAT DRIER DWPNTS ARE ADVECTING IN FROM NORTH OF THE LAKE...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR READINGS TO FALL. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK UP A BIT MORE THIS EVENING OVER ERN ZONES BEFORE CLOUDING BACK OVER LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NE. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINTS THOUGH AS WINDS STAY UP BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW TO EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. NONETHELESS...READINGS WILL BE COOL...IN THE LOW 40S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 40S EAST. THURSDAY...MODELS STILL SHOW SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN ON BACKSIDE ON LOW WITH ASSOC SHOT OF CAA...COLDEST 8H TEMPS OF AROUND 4C ARE OVER THE EAST WITH AROUND 8C OVER THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV NOTED ON MODELS ASSOC WITH DPVA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...UPSTREAM 12Z SDNG AT MOOSONEE ONTARIO LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY...SO NOT SURE EVEN WITH INSTABILITY HOW MUCH SHRA ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OVER THE ERN COUNTIES. ETA AND GFS FCST SNDGS AT KERY SHOW SHALLOW LYR OF INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 50 J/KG. KEPT IN SOME DIURNAL SHRA JUST FOR LUCE COUNTY AND WENT DRY ELSEWHERE. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF COOL TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN U.P. AS FCST SNDGS AND ETA 2M TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS BELOW FCST GUIDNACE. KEPT IN HIGHS FROM UPR 50S TO LOW 60S NORTH TO UPR 60S SOUTH AND ALONG DOWNSLOPING AREAS NEAR LAKE MI. THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY EXPECT CLEARING SKIES OVER ERN COUNTIES IN WAKE OF SHRTWV AND WITH COOL AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. LOOK FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF READINGS AROUND 40 IN THE WRN INTERIOR CLOSER TO SFC RDG AXIS AND IN THE MID TO UPR 40S EAST WITH MORE OF GRADIENT WIND EXPECTED. GENERALLY FOLLOWED COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE. FRIDAY...CONTINUATION OF NORTH WINDS WILL STILL KEEP TEMPS UNSEASONABLY COOL. WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 5-9C ON FRI...EXPECT READINGS IN THE INTERIOR SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR BUT WILL STILL BE COOL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE LAKE WITH DECENT NRLY FLOW. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY. HAVE UPR 30S IN THE WRN INTERIOR AT THE MOMENT...BUT SHOULD DEWPOINTS BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR FROST POTENTIAL. SATURDAY...MORE EARNEST WARMING TAKING PLACE AS RDG FM THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 8H TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 10 TO 12C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO UPR 70S SOUTHWEST...EXCEPT FOR READINGS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S ALONG THE GRT LAKES. EXTENDED (SUN-WED)...ENSEMBLES STILL SUPPORTING VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. 5H RDG HEIGHTS BUILD TO THE 585 TO 590 DAM OVER THE REGION WITH RDG AMPLIFYING OVER THE AREA. FOLLOWED MORE CONSISTENT OPERATIONAL ECMWF WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF WK CDFNT FM WEST. SLIGHT FLATTENING OF 5H RDG WITH WK SHORTWAVE ALLOWS CDFNT TO SAG TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT FCST DRY AS GULF MSTR BLOCKED BY MASSIVE RDG TO SOUTH...ALTHOUGH HAVE TRIMMED BACK HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TUE. NONETHELESS WITH THERMAL RIDGE INDICATING 8H TEMPS OF 17-18C PROGGED OVER AREA THROUGH PD WOULD EXPECT INLAND HIGHS TO REACH UPR 80S TO LOW 90S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR AND AROUND THE MID 80S EAST. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 248 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2005 ..CONTINUED HOT BUT SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID THU... .SHORT TERM /TNGT AND THU/...TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID-UPR 90S ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTN. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPR 90S AND THERE IS STILL A SHOT THAT FEW INLAND LOCATIONS WL MAKE A RUN FOR 100 DEG BEFORE SUNSET. AS NOTED IN YDA/S GUIDANCE AND FCST GRIDS...DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO MIX OUT AND ARE RANGING FROM AROUND 70 WELL INLAND TO THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS IS PRODUCING OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 103-109 DEGREES. THE LATEST RUC OUTPUT SUGGESTS HEAT INDEX VALUES WL LIKELY NOT FALL BLO 105 UNTIL JUST AFT 7 PM. WL XTND THE HEAT ADV UNTIL 8 PM AS A RESULT. THE CU FIELD HAS BEEN SEVERELY SUPPRESSED BY THE DEEP WLY FLOW. WE PLAN TO GO WITH A DRY FCST THIS EVNG AND OVRNGT WITH THE ATMOS REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET LEAVING CLR SKIES. IT WL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. HIGHS THU WL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPR 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A CONTD DEEP WLY FLOW ALOFT WL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE ABOUT 5 DEG LWR THAN THIS AFTN WHICH WL RESULT IN A HEAT INDEX VALUES BLO HEAT ADV CRITERIA. STILL XPCT HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100. THE ATMOS WL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED SO GRIDDED POPS WL REMAIN AOB 10 PCNT. && .LONG TERM /THU NGT THROUGH WED/...COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY. CDFNT CURRENTLY PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRI AS A LARGE H5 TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. THIS FNT WL BECOME Q-STNRY SOMEWHERE OFF THE COAST THROUGH ERLY NXT WEEK. PCPN CHANCES BE HIGHEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WK IMPULSES ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE UPR TROF AND INTERACT WITH THE FNT. IT WL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. && .MARINE...SFC TROF SLIGHTLY INLAND WILL PUSH OVR THE WATERS TNGT THRU TMRW TO BE FOLLOWED BY A FNTL BNDRY FRI. FNTL BNDRY LOOKS TO WOBBLE OVR THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND MAKING THE DIRECTION FORECAST RATHER TRICKY. WITH SPEEDS AOB 15 KT THRU THE PERIOD... HAVING SOLELY A DIRECTIONAL FORECAST IS WELCOME. FNTL BNDRY LOOKS TO PUSH THRU THE MARINE AREA BY MON MRNG...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SEA WILL REMAIN AOB 4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND. WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NE BY NEXT WEEK...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY CREEP UP TO 5 FT IN THE GA OUTER WATERS. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THRU 16/18Z. WILL LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK TO SLY THIS AFTN THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY TNGT AND TO WLY BY DAYBREAK TMRW MRNG...WITH SPEEDS AOB 12 KT. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OF HZ AT KCHS BUT WITH 6SM VFR VSBY AS 5-MIN OBS HAVE BOUNCED BETWEEN 6-7SM VSBY DUE TO HZ. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SCZ040-042>045-047>051. MARINE...NONE. && $$ ST/JPC sc