WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 130 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2003 THE FRONT HAS JUST WENT THROUGH SRQ AT 02Z. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT AND LIFTING EASTWARD. THE SHOWERS ARE BACKING OFF FOR NOW...BUT THERE ARE A FEW MORE IN THE GULF. THE NEXT STRONG SHORT WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN GULF BASED ON WATER VAPOR PIX. THERE MAY BE SOME SMALLER ONES BETWEEN HERE AND THERE. I WILL LEAVE THE POPS WE HAVE IN THE FORECAST. PLUS THE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE ALSO. THE RUC HAS THE FRONT MOVING NORTH STARTING ANY TIME NOW...DOESNT LOOK LIKE IT WILL HAPPEN. THE MESOETA WAS COMPLETELY OFF THE MARK...ALTHOUGH A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z RUN LOOKS BETTER. MY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE BOUNDARY MOVING VERY LITTLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH...PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z MESOETA. MY ONLY BIG CONCERN IS THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY UNDERESTIMATING THE RAINFALL SO FAR. ALTHOUGH WE CAN HANDLE A WHOLE LOT MORE BEFORE WE HAVE PROBLEMS. .TBW...NONE. SOBIEN fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 934 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2003 CURRENTLY/TODAY...RATHER WELL DEFINED FRONT DRIFTING SOUTHWARD FASTER OVER THE ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST...AND LAGGING SLIGHTLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. BOUNDARY WAS INDICATED BY SATELLITE TO BE NEAR SEBASTIAN INLET. EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS SHIELD EXTENDED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN AS SHALLOW COOL AIR WAS BEING OVER RUN BY 20-25 KNOT MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTED TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. LOOKING AT THE MODELS...THEY REALLY DO NOT DEPICT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURGE OF COOLER AIR THAT WELL...EVEN THE MESO ETA. RUC COMES CLOSEST SHOWING THE BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH INDIAN RIVER COUNTY AND INTO ST LUCIE. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AS COOLER AIR MASS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO SAG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THIS SHOULD LOCK IN LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS SO MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SUN IN THE FAR SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 80S. LATEST RADAR SHOWING THAT HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN IS OVER THE NORTH AND THINK THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. MIGHT ADJUST POPS TO SHOW MORE OF A NORTH/SOUTH GRADIENT. MARINE...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING ABOUT 10 KNOT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH LEG. THINK THAT NORTHERN PARTS ARE PROBABLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS BASED ON GRADIENT AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SO PLAN TO BUMP UP WINDS SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH. .MLB...NONE. PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY AVIATION/FIRE WX...BRAGAW $$ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1049 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2003 .UPDATED...NO MAJOR CHANGES...BUT TWO MINOR ONES. FIRST...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LOCATIONS UP NORTH ALREADY BELOW ZERO (40B -6, PQI -2). WITH CONTINUED RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...FEEL THE VALLEYS WILL BE AROUND -15 TONIGHT. THE OTHER MINOR CHANGE IS TO ADD PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST. THIS WAS A DIFFICULT DECISION...BUT NOTED THAT BANGOR HAD FOG UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT...BAR HARBOR IS WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF IT/S DEW POINT... AND THERE IS SOME FOG IN EASTERN MASS AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE RUC CAPTURES THIS AREA OF MOISTURE SOMEWHAT...AND SPREADS IT INTO DOWNEAST MAINE LATE TONIGHT. .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA LATE SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY MONDAY. DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK TOWARD THE REGION LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING IN LINE REGARDING A SOLUTION HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. ETA TRACKS THE LOW TO NEAR EASTPORT BY 00Z/MON WITH THE CANADIAN GLOBAL TRACKING THE LOW THROUGH THE BAY OF FUNDY. GFS TAKES THE LOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND WITH A TRACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. AGAIN WITH THE EXACT TRACK STILL IN QUESTION AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT PRESENT TIME AND WILL REFRESH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL. IN ANY EVENT IT APPEARS AS IF VERY COLD AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION BEHIND THIS STORM FOR MONDAY AS H85 TEMPERATURES CRASH DURING THE DAY. THEN EXPECT DRIER AND COLDER AIR FOR LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE REGION. COASTAL WATERS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT GALE FORCE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. .CAR...NONE. APFFEL me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1010 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2003 ...FORECAST QUANDARIES THIS EVENING ARE CLOUD COVER AND LOW TEMPS... CURRENTLY HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE US-CANADIAN BORDER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO WESTERN QUEBEC SATURDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS LOW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST USHERING COLD ARCTIC AIR BACK TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MID CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING WILL SUFFICE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...HOWEVER NORTHERN PORTIONS WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS WEST HALF...TO THE LOWER 20S EAST HALF. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WARMED UP ENOUGH TO INITIATE A LAKE BREEZE...WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPSLOPE FLOW ACTUALLY DEVELOPED A LAYER OF STRATO-CU OVER THE STATION THIS EVENING. RUC SHOWS A GRADUAL SHIFT OF SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTH BY DAYBREAK...AND WITH CURRENT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO FORECAST MAINLY INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. ALREADY HAVE SEEN METARS FROM KSAW...KISQ...AND KERY DROP TO 3SM TO 5SM VISIBILITY. EVEN AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE AT KISQ. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTING LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTH TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO INLAND...TO AROUND 20 DEGREES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF CWA LOOK REASONABLE...EVEN WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK .MQT...NONE. LAROSA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 625 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2003 PER SATELLITE TRENDS...UPDATED GRIDS TO PUSH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO N/W COUNTIES OF NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS MORNING. PER UPSTREAM TRENDS AND LATEST RUC40/MESOETA FORECASTS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO GENERALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE STRAITS. ALSO...REMOVED MENTION OF MORNING FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN UP. NO OTHER CHANGES. .APX...NONE. ROWLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 1015 AM FRI FEB 28 2003 UPDATED FORECAST AND GRIDS. DROP ALL MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. WENT WITH MORE OPTIMISTIC PARTLY SUNNY. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT...COOL WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MARINE...DROP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR AS WINDS HAVE LOWER TO UNDER 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER...HAD TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR ROUGH SEAS ON OCEAN. HAVE 8 FEET AT BOTH 44025 AND 44017 WITH 8 SECOND PERIOD...FROM SOUTHEAST. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THIS EVENING TO BELOW CRITERIA. *******PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 7:30 AM******************* UPDATED ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR LACK OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS NYC/LI. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SEEMS TO BE HINDERING SNOW FROM FALLING OVER FORECAST AREA. THUS...FLURRIES ALL ZONES THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. ********PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3:30 AM****************** FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF LIGHT SNOW AND THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TRACKS QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE RADAR SHOWS RETURNS FROM NORTH CENTRAL NJ NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND...OBS STILL ONLY SHOW MID LEVEL CEILINGS AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. QUITE FRANKLY...EVEN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES MAY EXPERIENCE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SFC LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY...WHILE QPF AMOUNTS SUPPORT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FROM NYC EASTWARD ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND DROP OFF TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT ZONES. MAY JUST GO WITH FLURRIES FOR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND NOT MENTION LIGHT SNOW. CONFLUENT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW...TAKES MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 18Z. SHORT WAVE RIDGING SETS IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT PAC SYSTEM MOVING INTO MS VLY ON SAT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS AREA IN TANDEM WITH UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT ...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SAT AFT AND EVE AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPING SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUN. A SNOW TO RAIN TRANSITION LOOKS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST...WHILE A MIX MAY NEED TO BE HELD ON TO IN THE INTERIOR. GFS THE WARMER OF THE SOLUTIONS AS IT GENERATES A STRONG SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WORKS UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THE ETA...ON THE OTHER HAND...SUPPORTS A COLDER SCENARIO WITH A WEAKER MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. PREFER THE LATTER AS THE CONFLUENT FLOW SUGGESTS AN OUTCOME SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY. NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET TAKES OVER AT THE START OF THE WEEK AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN AVERAGE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON THE MARINE...WILL HOLD ON TO A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL WATERS TODAY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN. STAY BELOW WAVEWATCH SAT AND SUN FOR SEAS AS CONTRIBUTION FROM EASTERLY SWELL SEEMS OVERDONE. .AVIATION...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...PCPN HAVING A VERY HARD TIME WORKING NORTH. CIGS CONTINUE VFR AT THIS TIME WITH THE PCPN UPSTREAM OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY IS VIRGA. BASED ON RUC AND TRENDS...THINKING NOW IS THAT THE PREVAILING WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. WILL DO AN AMENDMENT BETWEEN 9 AND 10Z TO UP THE IFR FORECAST IF TRENDS AND NEW GUIDANCE SUPPORTS. ****************************************************************** .OKX... CT...NONE. NJ...NONE. NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN...ANZ355-353-350 $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 730 AM FRI FEB 28 2003 UPDATED ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR LACK OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS NYC/LI. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL RIGING AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SEEMS TO BE HINDERIMG SNOW FROM FALLING OVER FORECAST AREA. THUS...FLURRIES ALL ZONES THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. ...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISUED AT 330 AM... FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF LIGHT SNOW AND THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TRACKS QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE RADAR SHOWS RETURNS FROM NORTH CENTRAL NJ NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND...OBS STILL ONLY SHOW MID LEVEL CEILINGS AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. QUITE FRANKLY...EVEN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES MAY EXPERIENCE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SFC LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY...WHILE QPF AMOUNTS SUPPORT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FROM NYC EASTWARD ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND DROP OFF TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT ZONES. MAY JUST GO WITH FLURRIES FOR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND NOT MENTION LIGHT SNOW. CONFLUENT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW...TAKES MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 18Z. SHORT WAVE RIDGING SETS IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT PAC SYSTEM MOVING INTO MS VLY ON SAT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS AREA IN TANDEM WITH UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT ...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SAT AFT AND EVE AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPING SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUN. A SNOW TO RAIN TRANSITION LOOKS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST...WHILE A MIX MAY NEED TO BE HELD ON TO IN THE INTERIOR. GFS THE WARMER OF THE SOLUTIONS AS IT GENERATES A STRONG SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WORKS UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THE ETA...ON THE OTHER HAND...SUPPORTS A COLDER SCENARIO WITH A WEAKER MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. PREFER THE LATTER AS THE CONFLUENT FLOW SUGGESTS AN OUTCOME SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY. NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET TAKES OVER AT THE START OF THE WEEK AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN AVERAGE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON THE MARINE...WILL HOLD ON TO A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL WATERS TODAY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN. STAY BELOW WAVEWATCH SAT AND SUN FOR SEAS AS CONTRIBUTION FROM EASTERLY SWELL SEEMS OVERDONE. .AVIATION...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...PCPN HAVING A VERY HARD TIME WORKING NORTH. CIGS CONTINUE VFR AT THIS TIME WITH THE PCPN UPSTREAM OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY IS VIRGA. BASED ON RUC AND TRENDS...THINKING NOW IS THAT THE PREVAILING WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. WILL DO AN AMENDMENT BETWEEN 9 AND 10Z TO UP THE IFR FORECAST IF TRENDS AND NEW GUIDANCE SUPPORTS. .OKX... CT...NONE. NJ...NONE. NY...NONE. MARINE...SCA FOR ALL WATERS...ANZ355-353-350-330-335-338. $$ PUBLIC/MARINE...DW AVIATION...JT ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 830 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2003 MOST OF THE ILM CWA HAS CLEARED EARLY THIS EVENING...NICELY EVIDENT IN THE 11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE EXCEPTION IS IN NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES...WHERE STRATUS DECK NEVER REALLY BROKE AND HAS STARTED TO BUILD BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. FLO ALREADY DOWN TO 2SM. EXPECT TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS COME BACK IN OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL BE A MATTER OF TIMING. AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR...ESP SC ZONES...COULD EASILY FOG IN BEFORE LOW CLOUDS RETURN. WILL ADD MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVERNITE...HITTING HARDER IN SC. THIS WILL TAKE SOME RESTRUCTURING OF THE ZONE GROUPINGS. CURRENT MIN TEMPS AROUND 40 MAY BE A CATEGORY TOO COOL ALONG THE COAST...BUT NOT ABOUT TO RAISE MINS WHILE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA. MARINE: HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING WIND DIR TO EVENTUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE E. RUC/ETA AND EVEN THE GFS DEPICT A WEAK COASTAL TROF FORMING OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING THIS IN THE MARINE OBS UNTIL YOU LOOK S ALONG THE E FL COAST. EVEN IF THE TROF BECOMES BETTER DEFINED THIS FAR N...WOULD STILL SEE THE FLOW VEER TO A PREVAILING ELY COMPONENT THOUGH IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KTS...A LITTLE LESS NEAR THE COAST. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BECOME ELY I/LL LEAVE ALL OF THE MARINE ZONES IN ONE GROUP. SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 3 FT AT FRYING PAN...THE BULK OF THIS WAVE ENERGY IS ATTRIBUTED TO A 9-10 SEC SWELL. ONLY MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED W/ THE NEXT CWF ISSUANCE. .ILM... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. RAS/SRP PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (343 PM EST): FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER COASTAL SC AND PORTIONS OF SE NC. EROSION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES EARLY TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WILL FORECAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH PRES OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE DOWN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LIGHT ERLY FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE AREA WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PATCHY FOG MAY BE A FACTOR TONIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW SOON THE CLOUDS SPREAD BACK IN. WILL FORECAST LOWS TO FALL TO NEAR CURRENT DEWPOINT READINGS WHICH ARE NEAR 40. THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS NWRD OVER THE REGION DURING SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK...BUT THIS HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ETA SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE (SREF) DATA AS WELL AS ETA/GFS MOS DATA INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS COASTAL SC WHERE WE/LL FORECAST LIKELY POPS...WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. BY SAT NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT IS AT ITS BEST AND WILL FORECAST LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE E THROUGH THE AREA SUN MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY PRECIPITATION BY AFTERNOON AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK EXPECTED ON SUN AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. ELONGATED SHORT WAVE ALONG H5 AXIS LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA MON. ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FEATURE AND WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS SHIFT NW BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS FILTERING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. 12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE MUCH QUICKER THAN THE 00Z RUN WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AGREE WITH HPC/S TIMING...WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE THU MORNING. MARINE: PG ACROSS THE WATERS HAS RELAXED AS ANTICIPATED AND CURRENT BUOY REPORTS SHOW WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SIMILAR DEPICTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTING OFF THE MID ATLC REGION OVERNIGHT AND FLOW VEERS TO E/SE SAT. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH..WARM FRONT DEPICTED BY MODELS LIFTING N OF REGION BY SAT EVENING SUPPORTING S/SW FETCH THROUGH MUCH OF SUN. MODELS DIFFER HERE IN DETAILS WITH GFS DEPICTING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER GA AND MOVING IT NE VCNTY CAPE FEAR SUN MORNING. ETA TENDS TO KEEP LOW NORTH OF REGION AND BOTH MODELS INTENSIFY SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT GETS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID ATLC COAST. FORECAST WILL REFLECT COMPROMISE BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD WEAKER ETA SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATE SUN BEHIND FRONT BUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED EVENT. PUBLIC: JAQ MARINE: RWA nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 805 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2003 EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A LAYER OF LOW LVL MSTR GENERALLY BELOW H850. WITH LIGHT NRLY FLOW WOULD EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LVL DRYING OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUC AND MESOETA SUPPORT HOLDING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALSO LIMIT AMOUNT OF FOG THAT FORMS SO HAVE REDUCED FORECAST FOG FROM AREA OF DENSE TO JUST PATCHY ALL AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS AND FEEL TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH NEAR THE DEW POINTS AS WELL. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE TEMPS AS FORECAST FOR NOW. CWF: WINDS WILL CONT TO DECREASE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. WILL LOWER WAVES ON SOUNDS TO 1 FOOT OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED. GOOD NE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS IN SCA RANGE N OF OCRACOKE FOR A WHILE LONGER. .MHX...SCA N OF OCRACOKE INLET. MLF/RF nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 949 AM CST FRI FEB 29 2003 SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS LED TO THE FORMATION OF A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. SFC TEMPS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED AOA 32F OVR FAR SRN OK..WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S ALONG AND S OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. ETA/MESOETA ARE NOT CATCHING MID LEVEL SATURATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRIEF SHOT OF UVV CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OK PER SAT IMAGERY. THE RUC HAS DONE A MUCH BETTER JOB RESOLVING THIS IMPULSE IN BOTH VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES PER BUFR SOUNDING DATA. 5-8 KFT LAYER OF DRY AIR IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL CONT TO MAKE PRECIP TYPE FORECAST VERY COMPLICATED THRU THE AFTERNOON. PHONE CALLS TO AREAS UNDERNEATH RADAR ECHOES REVEAL JUST ABOUT EVERY TYPE OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY FALLING AT ONE PLACE OR ANOTHER..BUT ALL PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT. SNOW AND SOME SLEET..AS SHUD BE EXPECTED..IS CONFINED TO AREAS OF HIGHEST RADAR REFLECTIVITIES AND COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WHERE ICE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE ENVIRONMENT FROM MID LEVELS. ELSEWHERE..VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS FALLING..PER 8 BIT RESOLUTION RADAR IMAGERY FROM KTLX/KFDR. EXPECT MIXTURE OF PRECIP TO CONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS UVV FIELD SPREADS NEWD INTO CENT/NCENT OK. HOWEVER..COMBINATION OF LIGHT PRECIP..SHORT DURATION AND SFC TEMPS CLIMBING TO AOA FREEZING BY MIDDAY IN MOST AREAS SHUD PREVENT ANY MAJOR PROBLEMS AND WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. EXPECT DRIZZLE TO CONT OVER WRN ZONES THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS SHALLOW LOW LEVEL UPWARD MOTION CONTS WITHIN LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK BENEATH DEVELOPING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. UPDATES OUT WITHIN THE HOUR. MILLER ************************** 413 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2003 BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ACRS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FA. HOWEVER AS SRN ROCKIES S/W APPROACHES CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO FILL IN. BEST LIFT WITH INIT WAVE APRS TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE FATHIS MORNING. HOWEVER GFS AND ETA SHOW A SECOND AREA OF UVV DVLPG FRTHR SOUTH THAT APRS TO BE RELATED TO INCREASING WAA. THUS WILL CONT WITH POPS FOR THE WHOLE AREA. PRECIP TYPE WILL AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE. APRS THAT SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT TYPE IN THE NORTH WITH R/ZR FRTHR SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. SECOND S/W EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIP. THIS WAVE EXITS THE AREA EARLY SAT WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTION UNTIL NEXT SYS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON SUNDAY AS NRN BRANCH S/W SWINGS THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. WILL KEEP POPS INTO SUNDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE TMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY IN THE WEEK AS SLY LOW LVL FLOW RETURNS. FCSTID = 2 OKC 35 31 41 30 / 40 40 10 10 HBR 37 31 43 28 / 40 30 10 20 SPS 43 35 47 33 / 30 30 10 20 GAG 32 23 38 22 / 60 30 10 20 PNC 33 27 37 25 / 50 40 10 10 DUA 44 36 46 34 / 30 40 20 10 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1020 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2003 KABR CWA IN A WAITING MODE AS SFC HIGH SLOWLY DROPS TO SE AND WAA KICKS IN LATER TODAY ACROSS THE WEST. AREA OF MID/HI CLOUDS IN NODAK SHOULD REMAIN THERE...AND MOVT PER VISUAL SAT PIX INDICATE THAT MOVEMENT IS INTO MN AND NOT INTO NRN SODAK. FURTHER SW TOWARD KPIR...MID CLOUD DECK APPEARS TO BE SCATTERING OUT. BELIEVE THAT MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN/EVN WHEN WAA GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR THREE. HAVEN'T GONE AS WARM AS LATEST RUC FOR TEMPS. LOOKING AT 12Z RUC KABR SOUNDING AND 12Z M-ETA SOUNDING VS REAL 12Z KABR SOUNDING...M-ETA INITIALIZED SFC TEMPS WAY TOO COLD...WITH RUC REAL CLOSE. .ABR...NONE. HINTZ sd WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 829 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2003 THE 00Z MESOETA AND RUC INDICATE LOW CLOUDS MOVING BACK OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THEREFORE WILL UPDATE TO ADD MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST HALF) FOR ALL ZONES. ALSO BOTH SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS DROPPING DOWN TO 1 TO 2 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE WITH BORDER LINE NUMBERS...WILL MENTION SOME FOG OR LIGHT DRIZZLE...BEST EAST (NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS FRIDAY MORNING). WILL LEAVE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH CLOUDS AND FOG MOVING BACK IN. 24 BELOW IS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. -------------------------------------------------------------- .CURRENT... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO SOUTH INTO WESTERN TEXAS. VAD PROFILE AT SJT REFLECTING SLACKENING OF 850 MB WINDS AS LLJ HAS MOVED TO THE EAST. WITHOUT THE MIXING EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWER ERODING TODAY WITH CLOUDS STILL LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY. TEMPS ALSO EDGING UP AT A SLOWER PACE THAN YESTERDAY. WILL SEE A RETURN OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT THE CWA FOLLOWED BY CLEARING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS SHOULD TOP TODAYS HIGHS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TOMORROW WITH A COOLDOWN AND PLENTY OF CLOUDCOVER FOR SUNDAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN LOW BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL POPS IN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLEARING ON MONDAY AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKING HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ACCOMPANIED BY DRY CONDITIONS. CCF PRELIMS... ABI 041/065/035/051 0001 SJT 040/071/038/058 0001 JCT 039/071/037/063 0001 .SJT...NONE. $$ 15 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 515 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2003 .AVIATION... NOT A CLEAR CUT CIG FCST FOR N TX TRACON SITES BEING ON SW EDGE OF DECAYING...STUBBORN ARCTIC DOME OVER CENTRAL/ERN TX. CIGS GENERALLY 008-015 (IFR/MVFR) AND SHOULD SEE THIS CONT ALONG WITH LOCALIZED 4-5SM BR 15Z-18Z AS ONLY WEAK MIXING SHOULD OCCUR PER WEAK BL-850 MB FLOW SHOWN NOTED ON PROFILERS. SFC WINDS TO STAY E/SE 5-10 KTS AS SURFACE TROUGH OVER W TX STAYS PUT. META SOUNDINGS/FWC GUIDANCES TRY TO SCATTER THINGS OUT FOR A BIT THIS AFTN (21Z-00Z TIME FRAME)... WHILE RUC SOUNDINGS/MAV AND LAMP GUIDANCES JUST SHOW CIGS RISING WELL INTO VFR RANGE. I'LL FOLLOW THE LATTER DUE TO CONTINUED WEAK FLOW ABOVE THE INVERSION AND LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN DEEP MIXING. AFTER 03Z...ITS BACK TO BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN AFTER DECOUPLING OCCURS WITH PATCHY 3-5SM VSBYS AFTER 06Z ONCE AGAIN. 05/ .EARLY MORNING PUBLIC DISCUSSION 415 AM CST... ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH...UPPER 30S SOUTH. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WEST AND CENTRAL...ABI-BWD STARTING TO SOCK IN...BUT THERE WILL BE PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY. SOUTH WINDS START IN EARNEST AND WARM UP SHOULD FINALLY PICK UP STEAM. NONETHELESS...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK. HEY...IT'S STILL WINTER. MODEL TRENDS ON NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE FRI-SAT PROGGED A BIT FURTHER NORTH. MOISTURE SLOW TO RETURN...AND BEST FORCING EVEN FURTHER NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. REMOVED SCANT POPS BECAUSE THE WHOLE THING IS JUST REMARKABLY UNIMPRESSIVE. FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY AND OVERRUNNING -RA/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE SUN INTO MONDAY...AIDED BY LAGGING SHORTWAVE. 850MB FRONT STILL A BIT TOO FAST TO ALLOW FOR MUCH MOISTURE ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. WILL BEAR WATCHING...BUT 20-30 POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW. .EXTENDED...LOW POPS FOR MONDAY AS AS MODELS (WITH VARYING STRENGTH) TAKE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS TX AND GENERATE LIGHT QPF. NOT MUCH QPF EXPECTED AS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST BY MON NIGHT. DECENT WARM UP TUESDAY WITH SWLY FLOW/WAA/DOWNSLOPING CRANKING UP AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVING WED MORNING. GFS MOS LOOKS ERRONEOUSLY WAY TOO WARM WED/THURS PER ECMWF/CANADIAN TRENDS...WHICH LOOK TO HANDLE THIS AIRMASS BETTER WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. WILL GO 60S UNDER MEX MOS 70S FOR HIGHS. LOW POPS PUT IN FOR WED/THU WITH FRONT NEARBY AND SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION...BUT THIS IS WITH MINIMAL CONFIDENCE. FCSTID = 25/05 DFW 51 41 57 38 / 0 0 0 0 ACT 57 44 61 41 / 0 0 0 0 PRX 49 40 53 38 / 0 0 0 0 DTO 49 40 53 38 / 0 0 0 0 TKI 49 40 53 38 / 0 0 0 0 DAL 51 41 58 39 / 0 0 0 0 TRL 52 42 58 40 / 0 0 0 0 CRS 52 43 59 41 / 0 0 0 0 TPL 57 44 62 42 / 0 0 0 0 .FWD... TX...NONE. $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 445 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2003 MAIN FCST CONCERNS CENTER ON EFFECTS OF ARCTIC SURGE WITH SNOW TIMING/AMOUNT AND TEMP/WIND CHILLS. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED MAINLY ZONAL NRN STREAM MID/UPR LVL FLOW THROUGH THE WRN LAKES BENEATH POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY. STRONG UPSTREAM SHRTWV LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SASK/MANITOBA WAS PROPELLING SFC ARCTIC FRONT...LOCATED OVER SRN SASK/MANITOBA...TOWARD THE SE. VERY COLD AIR LURKED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 08Z TEMPS AS LOW AS -45F OVER NRN SASK. SHRTWV AND FRONT HAVE SUPPORTED BAND OF SN WITH VSBYS AOB 1SM AT TIMES BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH WINDS OF 20-30 KT. SOME 2-5SM -SN WAS ALSO OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AREA OF MID CLOUDS OVER UPR MI...PER IR LOOP...WAS SUPPORTED BY 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WAA PATTERN BTWN HI PRES OVER THE NE CONUS AND ARCTIC FRONT AND TROF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. CLOUD COVER HAS CUTOFF RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH TO ALLOW LCLY DENSE FOG TO DIMINISH. BACK EDGE OF MID CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING THROUGH FAR WRN UPR MI AND SHOULD GRADUALLY EXIT THE CWA BY MID MORNING. MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE ETA TRENDING SLOWER TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE 06Z ETA HAS SLOWED MOVEMENT FURTHER WITH FRONT JUST OFFSHORE FROM WRN UPR MI AT 00Z/SUN. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH GFS TIMING. TODAY...WHILE MID CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AS FRONT APPROACHES...PERIOD OF AT LEAST PTSUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH SW WINDS SHOULD PUSH TEMPS TOWARD WARMER NGM GUIDANCE VALUES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S F. EVEN THROUGH BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE POST-FRONTAL...CHANCE POPS LEFT FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PRECEDING THE FRONT...PER UPSTREAM TRENDS. TONIGHT INTO SUN...WITH MDL QPF CONSISTENCY AND UPSTREAM TRENDS...HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO CATEGORICAL TONIGHT. PCPN WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AIDED BY UPR LVL DIV WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF 90+ KT JET NEAR JAMES BAY. MDLS QPF RANGING FROM ABOUT 0.06-0.12 INCH SUGGESTS AT LEAST 1-2 INCH SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH SNOW/WATER RATIO NEAR 20/1. EVEN THOUGH LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...LIMITED OPEN AREAS FROM MARQUETTE-MUNISING TO THE KEWEENAW AND OVER THE WRN LAKE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FUEL FOR SOME LIMITED LAKE ENHANCEMENT DURING NARROW WINDOW BEFORE DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS. ETA BUFKIT CONTINUES TO DEPICT RAPID DEPARTURE OF MOISTURE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WITH DNVA/QVECTOR DIV BEHIND THE SHRTWV. SO...HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY BOOSTED ACCUMULATIONS INTO 1-3 RANGE NEAR MQT AND IWD WHERE NNW WIND WILL HAVE THE BEST TRAJECTORY OVER SOME OPEN WATER. WHILE ICE ON THE LAKE MAY HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON MODIFYING SEVERE ARCTIC COLD...ICE COVER IS NOT SOLID WITH SOME OPEN AREAS AND OTHER AREAS THAT ARE MAINLY SLUSH. SO...ETA COOLING SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE WITH 2M TEMPS DOWN TO -15 TO -20F OVER THE LAKE BY 12Z/SUN. WILL STAY MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS TOWARD THE -3 TO -8 RANGE OVER THE N AS IN THE GOING FCST. EXPECT A PERIOD OF VERY GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40 MPH FOLLOWING FROPA WITH VERY STRONG ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT OF 5-7 MB/3 HR LIKELY...PER UPSTREAM TRENDS AND ETA FCST. COLD COMBINED WITH WINDS TO 25 MPH LATE MAY PUSH WIND CHILLS TO AROUND -30F...WITH WIND CHILL ADVY CRITERIA LIKELY FOR TONIGHT INTO SUN. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT -10 F WITH 20 MPH WINDS THAT WOULD PUSH VALUES TO THE -35 WARNING THRESHOLD. VERY COLD DRY AIR WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TO -30C WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY BUT WITH VERY LIMITED FETCH AND VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR SNOWFLAKE GROWTH PRFL...ACCUMULATIONS SUN WITH SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES SHOULD AMOUNT TO LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING OF A HALF INCH OR LESS. SUN NIGHT...RDG AXIS MOVES INTO UPR MI PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A VERY COLD CONDITIONS. WAA AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH SO THAT TEMPS WILL PLUNGE TOWARD RECORD LOWS CNTRL...WITH SOME READINGS FROM -12 NEAR THE LAKE TO NEAR -30 F INLAND. A FEW MORE CLOUDS LATE WILL KEEP WRN CWA FROM DROPPING OFF AS MUCH. MON...WENT WITH GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN CONSENSUS TIMING AND SLIGHTLY BOOSTED POPS ACRS UPR MI AS WAA/ISENTROPIC AHEAD OF SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD UPR MI BRINGS NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW INTO UPR MI. .MQT...NONE. JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 215 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2003 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS TODAY & EARLY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HELD IN THE MID 30S THROUGH 1 AM WITH ONLY VICHY REPORTING 31 DEGREES. ONCE AGAIN FOG PREVAILED OVER THE REGION WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES CONFINED TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. NEXT SHORT WAVE ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK WHICH PRODUCED LOCALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURE PROFILER ON THE LATEST RUC IS INDICATING +1.4C (1000-900H). ABOVE THIS LAYER (900-800H) TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 1 TO 2 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY THE SAME DUE TO THE SATURATED LAYERS...THEREFORE BELIEVE NORTH OF I-44 WITH HAVE A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW ONCE AGAIN WITH RAIN OR SNOW ALONG I-44 AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AS FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...DO NOT BELIEVE TOTALS WILL RUN HIGH DUE TO TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AND THE HIGHER MARCH SUN ANGLE. MOST OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE MELTING ON IMPACT OR ONLY ACCUMULATING ON GRASSY SURFACES DURING THE DAY. SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY ROADS...BUT BY THIS TIME MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO END BY 9 PM...ANY LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TURN OVER TO FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH FINALLY DRYS OUT THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES BY MIDDAY...LEFT OVER MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AND WEAK LIFT DUE TO THE OZARK PLATEAU MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-44 AND EAST OF SPRINGFIELD. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED AS A WEAK SYSTEM PROVIDES A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ON TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK MOVES NORTHWARD. .SGF... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. JLT mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 847 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2003 .PUBLIC...BUSY MORNING. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL WEDGING GOING ON. SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING ON ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. WILL GO WITH DRIZZLE...FOG...AND CHILLY TEMPS IN NORTH...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MIDDLE GA. UPDATE WILL LOWER TEMPS IN NORTH...PER RUC. .AVIATION...WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO 200 TO 400 FEET AND 1 TO 2 MILES ACROSS FTY...ATL...AHN AREA...UNTIL BETWEEN 16 TO 18Z. AFTER THAT...THINGS WILL ONLY IMPROVE SLOWLY AS RAIN MAY MIX THINGS OUT A LITTLE. .ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. $$ NOEL ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1000 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2003 BAND OF -RA OR DZ TRANSLATING ACROSS SRN IND ATTM, ALIGNED WITH 500MB FLOW PTTN. POOL OF RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL STATIC STABILITY AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER WRN IL FOCUSING LIFT OVER SRN IND. SAID PCPN TO MOVE NEWD AND MORE OR LESS OUT OF LMK FA BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. RECENT ACARS RAOBS OUT OF KSDF SHOW VERY STRONG INVERSION ~850MB. 12Z RUC DATA SUGGESTS THAT THIS INVERSION WILL HOLD THROUGH TODAY, THEREFORE WILL GO WITH OVC SKIES ALL ZONES IN THE 1ST PERIOD. .SDF...NONE. XXV ///PREV AFD BELOW/// SKIES CLOUDY ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA JUST NORTH OF FA. PATCHY FOG OVER THE AREA BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN 1 MILE OR HIGHER. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN BUT DIFFER SOME IN HOW FAST THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE GFS FOR TEMPS AND POPS AND A BLEND FOR TIMING OF RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS...THIS MORNING...LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF ANY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN WITH COLD FRONT STREAMING SOUTHEAST INTO FA SUNDAY. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF FA EARLY THIS MORNING IS DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS THE PRECIPITATION ELEMENTS MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SCRAPE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF FORECAST AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS DO NOT EXPECT ACCUMULATION. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WILL INTO 4OS TODAY AHEAD OF FRONT PUSHING IN TONIGHT. GFS AND ETA BOTH BRING PRECIPITATION INTO FA TONIGHT...ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT. MOST OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO BE RAIN. FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BEFORE MORNING. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BECOME MIXED WITH FLURRIES AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FA DURING THE DAY. ACROSS THE SOUTH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 30S. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY. AS CLOUDS DECREASE TOWARD MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCHOLZ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1040 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2003 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS NORTHWEST MN/SOUTHERN ND...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SD/NE. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS SET UP AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AC DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/CENTRAL LOWER MI...AS WELL AS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS MN/ NORTHWEST WI/FAR WESTERN UPPER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. AREA OF FOG/ST ALSO CENTERED OVER LUCE/WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES IN EASTERN UPPER. APX/GRB/DTX SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ABOVE 750MB...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED THICKER CLOUD COVER ACROSS IA/IL/IN...WITH A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS CLOUD LAYER ACROSS MO/IA. CLOUDS WILL BE IMPINGING UPON THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH AS THE DAY WEARS ON. ALTHOUGH MAIN AREA OF CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH JUST SPREADING INTO NORTHERN IL/FAR SOUTHERN LOWER...CONTINUED MID LEVEL WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER DEPICTED ON AREA SOUNDINGS SHOULD ALLOW AC TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 12Z RUC/ETA MOISTURE FIELDS. ALSO EXPECT AC TO THE WEST TO ALSO SPREAD IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONGER QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SPREADS IN. LOOKS LIKE LOWER LAYERS WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION OF FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS THOUGH WILL LEAVE IN AROUND SAGINAW BAY AREA. GOING TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD BASED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL GET ENOUGH SUN TO MIX CLOSE TO 850MB...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING IN MOST OF THE MORNING. UPDATED ARBZFPAPX WILL BE OUT BY 1610Z. .APX...NONE. $$ JPB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1019 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2003 .UPDATE... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES AND LATEST TRENDS IN REGIONAL 88D RETURNS AND SAT PICS COMBINED WITH LATEST RUN OF THE RUC MODEL AND MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS RAISING TEMPS CWA WIDE BY 2 TO 6 DEGREES DUE TO MECHANICAL AND DIRECT INSOLATION INDUCED MIXING OF BL THIS MORNING. SURFACE TEMPS NORTH OF CWA BEHIND COLD FRONT ALREADY ON THE DECREASE AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING CWA AND SUSPECT IT WILL BE ALL THE WAY THROUGH CWA BY 18Z. TWEAKED TEMPS/DWPTS/WINDS/SKY/RH/WCHLLS AND SFC WX THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM TO BE LOOKED OVER SHORTLY. CURRENT 20 TO 30 MPH WINDY WORDING LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD FOR NOW. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN/RETREATS AND THEN BACK IN AGAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRES TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS MRNG MOVING EAST WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT JUST ACROSS THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER AT 09Z. HIGHS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE ABR CWA SHOULD OCCUR BY NOON BEFORE THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES IN. TEMPS WILL FALL ACROSS THE N PART OF CWA THIS AFTN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH. SFC PRES RISES OF 3 TO 5 MB WERE IN S CANADA EARLY THIS MRNG. ALSO...LOW CLOUDS WILL OVERTAKE THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. MDL TSCTS SHOW WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL LIFT WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND MDL QPF IS VERY LIGHT. THUS...BELIEVE ONLY FLURRIES WILL OCCUR WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. MDLS SHOW GOOD DRYING TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN. THEREFORE...THE FLURRIES AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. WIND CHILLS COULD BE A PROBLEM ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS TEMPS FALL TO BELOW ZERO AND WINDS REMAIN ABOVE 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO. WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. LOWS WILL BE TUFF TONIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE WINDS DROP OFF AND HOW LOW THE DWPTS GO BUT...WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOWCOVER...THE LOWS SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS THE ETA AND MAV GUID ARE GOING AND NOT AS WARM AS THE FWC. GUID WAS TOO COOL WITH HIGHS AND LOWS WITH THE ARCTIC AIR LAST WEEK AND BELIEVE THIS AGAIN WILL BE THE CASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THUS...TRENDED HIGHER ON LOWS AND HIGHS THAN THE ETA AND MAV OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY WILL HAVE SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER SFC LOW PRES BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE NW. AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP...S TO SW WINDS WILL PICK UP BY SUN AFTN. WITH SS...WAA AND GOOD SFC HEATING...TEMPS WILL RISE QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY FROM THE COLD MRNG LOWS BELOW ZERO. THE ETA...GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET SHOW A SFC LOW PRES DROPPING ACROSS ND...NE SD AND INTO C MN SUN NIGHT AND MON. WAA CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD SE ACROSS THE ABR CWA SUN AFTN AND EVENING. WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK AND MDL QPF...NC SD INTO WC MN SHOULD HAVE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW WITH C SD REMAINING DRY. WITH CLOUD COVER AND MUCH OF THE ABR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR...TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF MUCH SUN NIGHT AND MAY EVEN RISE. KEPT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN NE SD AND WC MN MON MRNG WITH SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH. MONDAYS HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC PUSH OCCURRING MON AFTN AND NIGHT. .ABR...NONE DORN/MOHR sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD AVIATION DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 535 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2003 ...AVIATION DISCUSSION... CURRENT TAFS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED FOR THIS ISSUANCE. MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THE UPCOMING 24 HOUR PERIOD WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE MESOETA AND RUC40 SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. CEILINGS AND OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER 02/06Z...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAF AT THIS POINT. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65/DD ...PREVIOUS PUBLIC DISCUSSION... EXPECT CONFLUENT...W/SWLY/FAST ZONAL TYPE FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT CLOUD CVR THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY. A BRIEF PD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN SW HALF WHERE DEPTH OF LOW LVL MSTR/REMNANTS OF OLD ARCTIC DOME IS THE SHALLOWEST. RETROGRADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN POLAR STREAM WHICH WILL PUSH LOW PRESSURE OVER W TX DOWN INTO NRN MEXICO AND ALLOW A MINOR BACK DOOR FRONT LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING...BEFORE REINFORCING POLAR COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY. WILL INSERT LOW END POPS LATE TODAY NORTH... THEN BETTER SHOT SOUTH SUN. ACTION PICK UPS OVER THE REGION MON AFTN PER CANADIAN/EXTENDED ETA. SUB TROPICAL JET EASES NWD AT THIS TIME WITH DESERT SW SHORTWAVE TROUGH PULLING OUT OVER TX/OK. PWATS NEAR 1 INCH OVER CENTRAL TX BY THIS TIME. FOR NOW WILL INSERT LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN...SLGHT CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDER...AS MID LVL LAPSE RATES INCREASE OVERHEAD IN LIEU OF 850 WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER LOW LVL COOL DOME. MODELS VARY GREATLY ON SCENERIO...THUS THE LOW POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES FOR EARLY MARCH THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. SWLY FLOW/WAA PATTERN RESUMES BEHIND DEPARTING POLAR HIGH TUESDAY...WITH A BREEZY/WARMER DAY EXPECTED WITH FINALLY SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS WELL. .EXTENDED...SW U.S SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES RETROGRADING SWWD OVER THE ERN PACIFIC/BAJA CA REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SECOND COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY...BEFORE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN PLAINS OCCURS WITH POLAR HIGH SHUNTING COOLER AIR BACK EAST WITH ANOTHER SLOW WARM UP THURS/FRI AS WAA/SWLY LOW LVL FLOW RESUMES. NOT GOING QUITE AS WARM AS GFS AS IT NEVER REALLY BRINGS THE POLAR AIR INTO N TX. I FIND THIS HARD TO SWALLOW PER SOURCE REGION OF AIRMASS AND KNOWING GFS'S POOR HANDLING OF LOW LVL POLAR BEYOND DAY 4. EXPECT MORE OF GRADUAL WARM UP AND AT LEAST SOME COOL DOWN WHICH CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW...DESPITE ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. IT'S STILL WINTER. FCSTID = 05/ DFW 55 41 48 33 / 0 0 20 20 ACT 59 44 50 34 / 0 20 30 30 PRX 51 40 47 32 / 20 0 20 10 DTO 53 36 45 29 / 20 0 20 10 TKI 53 36 45 29 / 20 0 20 10 DAL 55 41 48 33 / 0 0 20 20 TRL 55 45 50 35 / 0 10 20 20 CRS 55 45 50 35 / 0 10 20 20 TPL 60 46 52 36 / 0 20 30 30 .FWD... TX...NONE. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 135 PM CST SAT MAR 01 2003 SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...NUMEROUS FCST CHALLENGES THRU THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LONG TERM MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THAN REV DAYS THOUGH. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN FOCUS ON SNOW AMOUNT/LOCATION TONIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PCPN...SKY COVER TOMORROW AND THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. LONGER TERM CONCERNS STEM AROUND TEMPS/TIMING OF EVENTS ACROSS THE AREA IN AN INCREASING ZONAL FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING PCPN OVER MO MOVING TO THE NE BETWEEN I-44 AND I-70. PCPN MOVG NE AT A GOOD CLIP. SAT PICS SHOWING THE WHOLE MIDWEST AREA SOCKED IN UNDER LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SOME LIGHT DZ. UPPER AIR CHARTS STILL SHOWING VERY COLD AIR OVER CANADA. 12Z MESOETA AND LATEST RUC MODELS SIMILAR IN BRINGING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT, MORE OR LESS RIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA. MM-5 AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS DID SOME OF THE 01/00Z MODEL RUNS. THIS CREATES A DILEMMA ON WHERE TO PLACE THE BEST SNOW BAND. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PCPN WILL PROBABLY BE MIXED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL PRESS TIME TO MAKE FINAL DECISION ON BEST SNOW LOCATION. PCPN TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN LAST NIGHTS 1-2+ INCHES THAT FELL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA. PLANNING ON MAKING NO MENTION OF PCPN TIMING CONSIDERING FROPA LATE ALSO. STILL LOOKING FOR FROPA AROUND 08Z OR SO IN THE NORTH AND TOWARD 11-12Z IN THE SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS WILL STAY PRETTY STEADY TONIGHT UNTIL FROPA...MAKING OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE TRICKY. TIME HEIGHTS/PLAN VIEWS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW WITH FLURRIES IN THE MORNING...BECOMING PC IN THE AFTERNOON...HAVE WORDED ZONES THAT WAY. TEMPS WONT GO MUCH OF ANYWHERE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW. COLD TOMORROW NIGHT UNDER MCLR SKIES. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON-MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. LOWERED POPS A TAD FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE DATABASE. BEST CHANCE POPS ON TUE AND RAISED POPS TO LIKELY. MAY BE A DECENT SNOW TUE...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY. I DROPPED THE POPS FOR WED MORNING OUT OF THE DATABASE. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY BUT MORE SO THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY. REMOVED POPS FOR THUR DAY AND WILL MAKE MENTION OF POPS THUR NIGHT AND FRI. WENT DRY ON SAT, BUT THAT ME BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE ALSO. TIMING OF SYSTEMS IN FAST ZONAL FLOW THRU THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUFF. MODERATING TEMPS WED-FRI, BUT STILL WENT A LITTLE BELOW THE MOS NUMBERS. ADJUSTED THURSDAYS HIGHS UPWARD TO BETTER MATCH LSX TEMPS. THANKS TO LSX FOR COORDINATION. FURTHER COORDINATION WELCOME. .ILX...NONE. $$ HALL il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1003 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2003 WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY. WILL BE TAKING OUT ALL MORNING WORDING FOR PRECIPITATION AND FOG. BASED ON SATELLITE LOOKS LIKE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ALSO WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH ALREADY WITH A TAD HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. RUC LOOKS TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL... AND WILL UPDATE WITH THE LATEST GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APROACHING MAXES IN THE NORTHEWEST HALF. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RUC...WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES THERE. WILL LEAVE THE TEMPERATURES ALONE IN THE EXTREME SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES DUE TO THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER. .GLD...NONE. $$ BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 242 PM CST SAT MAR 01 2003 SHORT TERM CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS TONIGHT. IN THE LONGER TERM...WARM UP STILL BEING ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. POTENT MID TROP VORT MOVING INTO WEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VORT...FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI...BACK INTO SW MISSOURI AND NE OKLAHOMA. THE PRECIPITATION WAS REPORTED TO BE SLEET AND SNOW IN MISSOURI...TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN IN NE OKLAHOMA. SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE RUC...ETA AND AVN ALL SHOW MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA...AND LATEST RADAR LOOP SUPPORTS THIS TREND. FORCING AND MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE OUR CHANCE POPS FOR EITHER RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW ACROSS S ILLINOIS AND SW INDIANA FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...POPS RATHER LOW...AND QPF SCANT FARTHER SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY AND SE MISSOURI. WILL GO WITH SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...BUT STILL ON THE CLOUDY AND COOL SIDE AS NW LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS AND MAINTAINS SOME CAA. THIS WILL LEAD TO COLD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES ARE FORECAST TO FINALLY CLEAR OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE RULE MONDAY...WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING BY AFTERNOON. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILDER. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE FRONT AND AREA OF MID LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH. WENT MORE WITH GFS TIMING. QUIET WX IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE U.S. S/SW LOW LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A MUCH ANTICIPATED WARM UP... ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PER THE ECMWF AND MRF...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...WE WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. .PAH...NONE. $$ CN ky UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 1140 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2003 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND REMAIN FOR MONDAY. .DISCUSSION...MADE QUITE A FEW CHANGES TO LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. COMPLICATED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE FEATURES COMPLICATING SNOWFALL FORECAST. SNOW PICKED UP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT PRIMARILY BETWEEN THE SALT LAKE AREA AND OGDEN AREAS. VERY OBVIOUS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE RADAR LOOP MOVING SOUTH OVER THE LAKE. HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE FARMINGTON AND EAST LAYTON AREAS...ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION. 06Z MM5-ETA ACTUALLY PEGGED THIS CIRCULATION QUITE NICELY...ALSO SHOWING THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT ON CUE...SNOW HAS DECREASED IN THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT...BUT STILL GOING ALONG I-80 AND SOUTH FROM THE GRANTSVILLE AREA TO THE EAST SALT LAKE AREA INTO COTTONWOOD HEIGHTS. THIS ISN'T SHOWING SIGNS OF LETTING UP...WHILE POINTS NORTH HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED. FEEL HEAVY SNOW IS OVER FOR MOST AREAS...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ADVISORY AMOUNTS FOR STORM TOTALS...MAYBE EVEN HIGH END ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS UNDER CURRENT BAND ACROSS SLC AREA. LOW LEVEL VORT CENTER ON THE LATEST RUC OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO AND IN THE IR LOOP IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS A POSSIBLE SNOW ENHANCER IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NOT DOING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80 GIVEN POOR OROGRAPHICS. 700 MB FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY...FURTHER DECREASING CHANCES OF HEAVIER SNOW THERE. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTH...700 MB LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM DELTA TO AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SGU AREA. WITH NEWEST MODELS TAKING 700 MB LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH...AGAIN SHOWING UP NICELY ON THE RUC ANALYSES AND FORECASTS...AND MATCHING UP WELL WITH LATEST IR ENHANCEMENTS AND RADAR RETURNS...AND COMBINED WITH FORECAST INSTABILITY...FEEL SOUTHWEST UTAH WILL SEE WARNING LEVEL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY UNDER A FOLDING OVER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. SO ALSO ADDED WARNINGS TO THE SOUTH AND AN ADVISORY TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. SLC 720 CDC 830 JACKSON .SLC...SNOW ADVISORIES AND HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING WASATCH FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. SEE SLCWSWSLC FOR DETAILS. $$ ut AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 220 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2003 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE...SNOW CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AREA OF SNOW OCCURRING IN A BAND RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING IS. SUBSIDENCE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND THE SNOW...CAUSING CLOUDS TO ERODE QUICKLY. CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH. IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEM REMAINS A CLEAR SLOT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP. ETA/GFS/RUC CONTINUE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW FORCING IN ALL LAYERS AND ARE TIMELY WITH IT. BEST FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT BASED ON CURRENT REALITY...THINK THERE REMAINS A LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE SNOW CHANCES WITH INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST FORCING RESIDES. ANOTHER PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT IS EXACTLY HOW COLD IT WILL GET AND WITH HOW MUCH WIND. 850 MB WIND FORECAST SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOTS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. BY 12Z...THESE WINDS SHOULD BE RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...1000-850 MB LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY 2-3 C/KM. THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY DOES NOT FAVOR THE MIXING DOWN OF MOMENTUM. THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT...6-8 MB/HR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES...AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SUGGEST THIS. WITH THAT SAID...THE COLDER TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. AS A RESULT...BEST ESTIMATION FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY RESIDE FROM 6-10 AM SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE WIND SWEPT AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES IS WISCONSIN. WITH THE TEMPERATURES BEING WARMER...IT SEEMS TO BE BORDERLINE. AM NOT CONFIDENT IN ADVISORY WIND CHILLS AT THIS TIME SO WILL HOLD OFF AND ASK THE EVENING AND MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TO REASSESS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ASSESSMENT OF THE 285K ISENTROPIC SURFACE REALLY SHOWS THE STRENGTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE. IN EXCESS OF 8 UBARS/S OF NET ADIABATIC ASCENT IS FORECAST BY THE ETA. THE GFS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. TIMING REMAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS VERY GOOD. LOOKS LIKE SNOW WILL BE FORMED BY DENDRITIC PROCESSES...SO SNOW WATER RATIOS SHOULD BE HIGH. THIS COULD LEAVE A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH...AND IN FACT...TRENDS TOWARD WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FORECASTING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /7 DAYS/. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THOUGH THE REGION DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. ALSO...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER...PUSHING THE 850 MB ZERO DEGREE CELSIUS LINE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SUGGESTS SOME RAIN CHANCES. WILL NOT INTRODUCE THIS AT THIS TIME. BUT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WILL INTRODUCE IN SUNDAYS AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. WHAT I DID DO DURING THE TIME IS WARM TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. MPX/DMX/DVN/MKX/GRB/DLH...ISC GRIDS OUT. CANNOT LOG INTO COORDINATION CHAT SOFTWARE DUE TO SLO PROBLEM. .LSE...NONE. KRC $$ wi