FXUS63 KICT 190238 AAA AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 938 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 00Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWS BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TO MOVE INTO NRN AND ERN KS. SATL DOESNT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS 700H MOISTURE, WITH 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING OVER NERN SECTIONS OF KS AFTER 06Z. SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHRA CHCS TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NERN KS, SKIRTING ALONG ERN EDGES OF THE CWA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO ENOUGH FOR A TSRA CHC. MOISTURE IN THE LOW LAYERS IS LIMITED, SO EXPECT ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT DO DVLP TO BE ELEVATED AND POSSIBLY SLIDE INTO SERN KS BY 12Z. SO WILL KEEP SLGT CHCS AROUND UNTIL THEN. WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE TO MAINLY FRESHEN THE WORDING. KETCHAM ------------------------------------------------------------------- 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FCST CONCERNS... CNVTV CHCS TNGT N AND E OF ICT... RETURNING HEAT THRU WED, THEN POTNL COOLDOWN BY WEEKS END... BAND OF MID LVL MSTR/ELEVATED INSTBY THAT HAS RESULTED IN ISOLD/WDLY SCT SHWRS THE PAST 2 NGTS ACRS SCNTRL NEB/NCNTRL KS, WL SHIFT EWD TNGT ACRS PTNS OF ERN KS. WITH A LTL BETTER THETA-E ADVCTN IN THE 850-700MB LYR FOR AREAS NE OF ICT ALG THE TURNPIKE, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH SLGT CHC LATE TNGT/MON MRNG. OTHERWISE, A TURN TWD MORE TYPICAL SUMMER JULY HEAT IS ON TAP FOR MON AFTN, WITH MAXS INTO THE 90S ACRS THE AREA. THE ETA RMNS THE MOST CONSISTENT IN BLDG UPR RDG/HEAT DOME ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TUE, AS CLOSED UPR LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST OPENS UP AND PROGRESSES ENEWD ACRS SWRN CANADA. PROGD LO LVL THKNS VALUES AND POINT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAXS ARND 100F ACRS CNTRL KS, SO LTL CHG TO GOING FCST. UPR RDG WL FLATTEN BY WED, AS SHRTWV'S IN INCRSG WLY FLO ALOFT RIDE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WL PUSH INITIAL SFC CDFNT SWD INTO KS BY WED NGT. LO LVL MSTR WL RMN MRGNL FOR CNVTN ON WED, GIVEN WARM MID LVL TEMPS/CAP ACRS THE AREA, SO WL LIMIT SLGT CHCS TO JUST S OF FNT LATE IN THE AFTN. WL ALSO KEEP TEMPS ARND 100F MOST OF THE CWA ON WED. BETTER CHCS FOR PCPN TO COME WED NGT AND THU AS BNDRY SINKS SWD ACRS THE CWA, WITH INCRSG LO LVL MSTR/INSTBY AND DIFLUENT UPR FLO. THE GFS/ECM RMN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT IN ROTATING SGFNT UPR TROF SWD ARND CANADIAN VORTEX FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WL ALLOW A STGR SECONDARY CDFNT TO BACKDOOR THE PLAINS, AS LNGWV UPR TROF DVLPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS THE GRTLKS. CNVTV CHCS WL CONT ON THU/EARLY FRI BFR FNT ARRIVES, AS AIRMASS WL RMN UNSETTLED IN MODEST NWLY UPR FLO REGIME. THE DRIER AND COOLER CANADIAN HIGH SHOULD DWINDLE PCPN CHCS AND LWR TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPS WELL BLO CLIMO. DARMOFAL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 68 96 74 100 / 10 10 5 0 HUTCHINSON 68 97 73 101 / 10 10 5 0 NEWTON 67 96 73 100 / 20 10 10 0 ELDORADO 67 95 73 99 / 20 20 10 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 67 96 74 100 / 10 10 10 0 RUSSELL 69 99 73 102 / 10 10 5 0 GREAT BEND 68 99 73 103 / 10 10 5 0 SALINA 70 99 76 103 / 20 10 5 0 MCPHERSON 68 97 73 101 / 20 10 5 0 COFFEYVILLE 63 92 70 96 / 10 10 10 0 CHANUTE 64 92 71 97 / 10 20 10 0 IOLA 64 92 71 97 / 10 20 10 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 13/DARMOFAL