000
FXUS61 KILN 151145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND MONDAY.
THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER
EXPECT THIS TO FILL IN SOMEWHAT WITH HEATING. ALSO A SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS WEAK ECHOES JUST OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS THIS BRUSHES BY THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES IN CENTRAL
OHIO. FOR HIGHS WENT WITH A MOS BLEND BUT LEANED TOWARDS COOLER
GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH AND TOWARDS WARMER GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT
MAY INDUCE SOME WEAK TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE IN THE LEE OF THE
LAKES. AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES GETTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE EXPECT TO BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES OFF
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON TUESDAY. FORECAST LOWS GENERALLY
CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS WHILE HIGHS COMPROMISED BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
OR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS
ENOUGH SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO KEEP SOME DOUBT WHETHER THE
LOW WILL BE THAT FAR NORTH. NONETHELESS...IT APPEARS THAT THERE
WILL BE AN INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED IN THUNDER BUT JUST
FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOW
TRACK. SECONDARY TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. COLDER AIR
ADVECTING IN WILL CAUSE THIS TO CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THEN
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A CLIPPER TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY BUT AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK NW TO N FLOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MON. VFR
CIGS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE EXCEPT
FOR SOME MVFR CIGS AT CENTRAL OH TAF SITES. BACK EDGE OF BULK OF
SC CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BUT KCMH AND KLCK.
STILL SOME ISOLATED SC CIGS BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF SC.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE
VFR CIGS IN CU AS WELL AS SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. THESE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. CU
SHOULD SCATTER OUT AROUND 00Z IN THE WEST AND 04Z IN THE EAST
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CIGS AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT EXPECTED
AFTER 00Z IN THE WEST AND 03Z IN THE EAST. AT KCVG...AFTER 12Z
MON SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND AFTER 15Z MON SCT CU AROUND 35
HUNDRED FEET.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PARKER