Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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000 FXUS63 KGLD 090231 AFDGLD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 731 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009 .UPDATE... MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH...NOW REACHING OUR EXTREME WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS LARGE AND ORGANIZED AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SO HAVE UPPED THE POPS TO 100% GIVEN CURRENT RADAR AND 00Z MODEL DATA AS WELL AS THE FACT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWEST AND RIGHT NOW COVERS OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. LATEST NAM/RUC BRING THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR NORTHWEST COVERING NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MEANS TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z MONDAY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. 07 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009/ .SYNOPSIS... 231 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009 ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. STRONG TAP INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE ACCOMPANIED THIS FEATURE WITH A ROUGHLY 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OLD MEXICO. MID/UPPER RIDGING WHICH BROUGHT PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FOLTZ && .DISCUSSION... 231 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009 FORECAST CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY THEN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ABUNDANT WAA IS WELL UNDERWAY AS FETCH STRETCHES ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRATUS AND SOME FOG HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION TODAY AND SEE NO REASON PATCHY FOG WON`T CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. GENERAL TREND WITH REGARD TO POP HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE ONSET BY A FEW HOURS. STILL FEEL BENEFICIAL MOISTURE WILL FIND IT`S WAY INTO THE REGION BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SHUNTS BEST MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE DRY SLOT BY 12Z MONDAY. NAM AND THE EC ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WRAPPING MOISTURE AROUND THE BACKSIDE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVERYTHING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HAVE SIDED WITH THE NAM/EC SOLUTION AND MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. INITIAL SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY DROPS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE TX/OK PANHANDLE THEN DUE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK. THIS WOULD PUT THE GLD CWA ON THE FAR NORTHWEST FRINGES OF PRECIP. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH. ANY NORTHWARD TRACK IN THE H5 LOW WOULD PUT MORE OF THE CWA IN THE LINE OF FIRE FOR PRECIP. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. NEXT QUICK MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS NOTED ON THE EC 290K SURFACE KICKS IN BY 12Z FRIDAY. WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALLING TO LESS THAN 30MB...FELT CONFIDENT IN MAINTAINING LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. APPEARS MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT OF AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH IT. MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. EC/OP GFS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DEPICTING A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPACTING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY SO INSERTED LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOLTZ && .AVIATION... 420 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009 FOR THE 00Z TAFS AT KGLD AND KMCK...TOUGH FORECAST AHEAD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VIS AT BOTH SITES. WILL GO WITH VIS AROUND 3SM WITH -DZ AND/OR -RA AND BR AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 12Z. KGLD COULD HAVE VIS AND CIGS OF 1/4SM AND VV001 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AT KITR AND THOUGHT THAT IF IT DOESNT RAIN WE WILL BE STUCK IN LOW VIS/CIGS TIL IT DOES START TO RAIN...IMPROVING CIGS AND VIS A BIT. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15G25KTS...POSSIBLY HIGHER GIVEN SOME MIXING OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. AS THE ENERGETIC STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BY 15-16Z AND CONTINUE GUSTY WITH SPEEDS 20G30KTS...POSSIBLY HIGHER. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST AND LATER TAF FORECASTS WILL NEED TO PROVIDE MORE DETAIL AS THERE IS NO GOOD CONSENSUS RIGHT NOW. BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH WINDS SUBSIDING BELOW 15KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 07 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$
