FXUS64 KMRX 010201 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 900 PM EST MON MAR 31 2003 THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. ********************************************************************* EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE) 900 PM EST MON MAR 31 2003 WARMER AIR BUILDING E THRU THE PLAINS AND MS VLY REGION RESULTING IN SOME CI/AC UPSTREAM. PATCHES OF THESE LAYERS WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE FA TONITE KEEPING SKIES PC. PRES GRAD PROBABLY WON'T ENTIRELY RELAX OVRNITE ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO CURRENT FCST MINS WHICH RANGE FM ARND 30 TO 40. NO CHANGES TO FCST. .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. ********************************************************************* AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION 300 PM EST MON MAR 31 2003 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS APPROACHING THE EAST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EAST AND ALLOW SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS PROVIDING A WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO MODERATE FROM WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TO WELL ABOVE BY MID-WEEK. AT ANY RATE...GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY KEEP SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART. EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIP. FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND CLIMATOLOGY BY THE WEEKEND. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOLLOW: CHA 38 72 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 TYS 36 70 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 TRI 32 67 45 73 / 10 0 0 0 OQT 36 71 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 LCM ********************************************************************* MID-MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE) 1000 AM EST MON MAR 31 2003 FORECAST APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK. A FEW FLURRIES ARE STILL OCCURRING IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...BUT EXPECT THESE TO END BY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH WILL REMOVE MENTION OF FLURRIES. WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SKY CONDITIONS AS MODELS DEPICT DRYING AT ALL LEVELS...IN SPITE OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATE. WILL ALSO TWEAK TEMPS IN SOME ZONES. LCM ********************************************************************* EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION 300 AM EST MON MAR 31 2003 MARCH WILL GO OUT LIKE A LAMB TODAY...EVEN THOUGH YESTERDAY WAS MORE LIKE A LION WITH WINTERS LAST GASP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND WARMER WEST WINDS WILL WARM THE CWA SOME WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAY THE WARMUP WILL BE COMPLETE WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST OF APRIL...AND THAT IS NO APRILS FOOL JOKE. MAY STILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOTHING OF ANY CONCERN. PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. NOT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE END OF THE WEEK HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FRIDAY...LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR FRIDAY TIMING OF FRONT. MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE USUAL ETA BIAS FOR HIGHER MAX TEMPS...USED A GOOD BLEND REMOVING THE ETA MAX TEMP BIAS. THE FOLLOWING NUMBERS ARE PRELIMINARY AND FOR COORDINATION ONLY: CHA 57 37 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 TYS 50 36 68 47 / 0 0 0 0 TRI 46 33 64 43 / 10 0 0 0 OQT 51 36 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 SCHOTT *********************************************************************