SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 930 PM MST WED MAR 31 1999 SYNOPSIS...A WINTER-LIKE STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA AND THEN STALL OUT UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BRING MORE WIND AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. AS SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND SCATTERED VALLEY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR THIS SEASON WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM AND MAY DROP TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING EAST OF TUCSON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON EASTER SUNDAY. DISCUSSION...WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF SE AZ EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY WHERE THEY ARE STILL BLOWING ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS. 00Z RUC SHOWED AN INCREASE IN 700 MB WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 50 KTS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND AND AFTER A COORDINATION CALL WITH FLG...DECIDED TO EXTEND WIND ADVISORY TO 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING FOR ZONE 19. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF SE AZ WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM. LOOKS LIKE APRIL WILL COME IN WITH AVENGENCE AS A STRONG LATE SEASON WINTER STORM IS BREWING IN NEVADA. 00Z ETA/NGM MODEL RUNS REALLY DEVELOPS DEEP MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS SE AZ. THIS MOISTURE IS SEEN ON GOES-10 SOUNDER PW DATA AND NGM/ETA INTIALIZED THIS REAL WELL AND SPREAD THIS HIGH PW VALUE (OVER .50") THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY WITH BEST DYNAMICS OVER OUR AREA. MID-SHIFT WILL HAVE TO THINK ABOUT HOISTING WINTER STORM WATCH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO COLD NATURE OF STORM. LATE SEASON NATURE OF STORM PUTS POSSIBLE SNOW FALL TOTALS INTO DIFFERENT CATEGORY FOR ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA. ETA AND NGM INDICATING THAT SNOW FALL TOTALS MAY APPROACH A FOOT ABOVE 6000 FEET. WINDS MAY STILL BE A PROBLEM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTENROON HOURS FROM TUCSON EAST BEFORE CLOUDS DEVELOP. JUST ANOTHER THING FOR THE MID-GUY TO CONSIDER. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS IN FINE SHAPE AS DAY-SHIFT HAS SET UP THE FORECAST NICELY. LOTS OF THINGS FOR THE MID-GUY TO CONSIDER AND MOTHER NATURE HOPEFULLY IS NOT PLAYING AN APRIL FOOL DAY JOKE ON US 'CUS WE SURELY COULD US THE RAIN AND DAMPEN FIRE DANGERS. TUS 0254. GLUECK .TWC...WIND ADVISORY ZONE 19 UNTIL 600 AM THU. NNNN az AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 240 PM EST THU APR 1 1999 CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS WRN PART OF BIG BEND AS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PIX. SEA BREEZE ALSO EVIDENT OFF APALACHEE BAY. THESE FEATURES HAVE MAINTAIN SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BIG BEND MOST OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EVIDENT OUT OVER THE GILF. MOST OF THE THUNDER HAS REMAINED IN VLD AREA OF S CENTRAL GA AND FROM MADISON CO FL E INTO THE KJAX CWA. 18Z ETA INDICATES PRECIP HANGING ON INTO THE EVENING AND BEYOND FROM TLH EASTWARD. THE 15Z RUC SHOWED THE LAST OF THE SHRA MVING OUT BY 00Z. DESPITE NIL POPS FROM BOTH NGM AND AVN GUIDANCE...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR EVENING HOURS FOR EASTERN PORTION OF CWA. AFTER PRECIP ENDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD AND GRADIENT SLACKENS...WINDS DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. AGREE WITH FWC GUIDANCE THAT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE MINS MAY BE A BIT LOW FOR TLH CONSIDERING CURRENT DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER FOG LIFTS...WE/LL HAVE SOME CI CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SCU DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE THAN TODAY...SHOULDN/T HAVE MUCH TROUBLE GETTING UP TO GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS WITH MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG SHORE WHERE A SEA BREEZE SHOULD KICK IN. SHOULD SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH THE FOG FRI NIGHT AND CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GROUND WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY A BIT SO FOG MAY NOT GET AS DENSE. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. MAY GET AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON THE SEA BREEZE FRONT EITHER DAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD SLT CHC POPS FOR SAT...BUT DON/T THINK THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN ZONES AT THIS TIME. #18 NNNN fl STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 955 AM EST THU APR 1 1999 12Z RUC STILL HOLDS OUT SOME HOPE IN SOUTH FLORIDA FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LAPSE RATE ANALYSES...BUT UPPER SUPPORT IS VERY WEAK AND MOVING (OR ALREADY MOVED) OUT. LINE OF SHOWERS IN THE LOWER KEYS IS A GOOD SIGN AND EYW DID REPORT SOME TRACE AMOUNTS EARLIER. FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA ARE IN THE LOWER 80S FOR ANYTHING TO BEGIN HAPPENING. CURRENT 20 PERCENT POPS SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. MAX TEMP FORECASTS LOOK OK...WILL MAKE SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES. MARINE...WILL KEEP UP THE SCA FOR SE GA AND NE FL...BUT WILL LOWER SCA TO SCEC FROM JUPITER INLET TO BONITA BEACH AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. .MIA...SCA ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FLAGLER BEACH. NNNN fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 950 AM EST THU APR 1 1999 KJKL 88D SHOWING A DECREASE IN SHOWERS AS 5H S/W BEGINS TO EXIT EAST OF KY. SHOULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE INTO EARLY AFTN AS LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS. VIS/IR SAT LOOP HAS LOW CLDNS ALL OVER THE OH VLY WITH A FEW BREAKS EVIDENT IN NRN KY. 12Z RUC MODEL SHOWS THE LOW LAYER MOISTURE DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTN BUT DO NOT FORESEE MUCH SUN. WITH THIS IN MIND AND SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING UNDER 10KTS AT SFC...DO NOT THINK OUR FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE REACHED. THINKING ABOUT LOWERING A FEW DEGREES.WILL WAIT FOR MAJORITY OF RAIN TO EXIT THE STATE B4 UPDATING ZONES. WHP NNNN ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 934 AM EST THU APR 1 1999 WILL DO SOME MINOR ADJSTMTS FOR LTST TRENDS...BUMP UP POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RNG AND WORD AS PDS OF RAIN...TAPERING OFF W PTN AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. 00Z MDL RUNS INDCD GRTEST MSTR DEPTH AND BEST FORCG NOW THRU ABT 18Z...DCRG THRFTR...THEN GRDL CLRG AFT 00Z. HWVR AVN/ 03Z ETA AND LTST RUC HELD ONTO MSTR A BIT LONGER..MORE LIKE THRU 00Z. THAT MAY BE MORE RSNBL BASED ON CUR RADAR TRENDS. ADNLY IF A SFC WV DVLPS AS ETA MDL INDCD THAT WUD ALSO TEND TO SLO THE PROGRSN OF PCPN. THUS I ALSO LIKE KEEPG A SML CHC INTO THE ERLY EVE HRS AT LEAST ERN SXNS AS PER PREV FCST. .LWX...NONE. JLW NNNN md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1035 AM EST THU APR 1 1999 WFNT AT 01/15Z FM NR MSP-GRB LN WITH SLO NWD MOVMNT. BRKS IN CLDS SRN PTN OF FA AND S OF WMFNT. FOG DRIZZLE AND LO CLDS NRN PTN OF CWA IN COOL SECTOR. REGIONAL 88D COMPOSITE SHOWS AREA OF PRECIP WELL W OF FA ACRS DAKOTAS APRCHNG WRN MN WHERE MOISTURE FIELDS AND UPWARD FORCING IS STRONGEST. THESE DYNAMICS FCST TO REMAIN N AND W OF FA THRU THE FIRST PERIOD. WK S/WS ONLY POSITIVE PARAMETER TO SUGGEST PSBL PRECIP OVR FA THIS AFTN BUT EFFECTS WILL BE DAMPENED WITH MOVMNT INTO THE STRNG UPPR LVL RDG. FCST PROBLEM IS MOVMNT OF WMFNT FM WI TWD SRN PTN OF FA. TEMPS S OF FNT ALREADY IN MID 50S WITH BKN CLDS. E OR SE WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL ALNG LK MICH BORDER AREAS THUS DICKINSON AND IRON COUNTY WI BORDER AREAS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FOR AFTN TEMP FCSTS. MRNG 01/12Z RUC SUGGESTS WMFNT TO CONTINUE MOVMNT NWD THRU THIS AFTN AND IMPINGE ON WI BORDER AREAS BY 01/21Z WITH 15C SFC TEMP FCST VCNTY IMT. MRNG ZFP UPDATE WILL INTRODUCE THIS FEATURE INTO FCST OTRW LTL CHNG TO REMAINDER OF PKG. JFM NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 436 AM EST THU APR 1 1999 FORECAST GETTING COMPLICATED BY BACKDOOR FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FOG LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THAT HAD BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT HAVE STALLED ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER OF CWA...ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER. SKIES HAVE GENERALLY BECOME CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER...WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVER EASTERN UPPER. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EASTERN UPPER EARLIER TONIGHT HAVE DISSIPATED. 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT HAS SLIPPED ACROSS THE KEEWENAW AND DOWN TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE... ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE WHICH HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE SOO AND TURNED WINDS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AROUND TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES IN VERY SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS BEHIND FRONT ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE MAIN PROBLEMS TODAY. ETA/NGM GENERALLY SIMILAR IN HANDING SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COOL AIR TODAY AND LATEST RUC FALLS IN LINE FAIRLY WELL...AVN MAY BE A BIT TOO QUICK ALTHOUGH ALL THREE SHORT RANGE MODELS GENERALLY LATCH ONTO SAME IDEA OF STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER TOWARD MIDDAY...AND REACH CENTRAL LOWER TOWARD EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP BEHIND BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS MORNING...AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING CLEARING POSES SOME PROBLEMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY... ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER. DRIER AIR JUST ABOVE SURFACE WILL EVENTUALLY BE OVERCOME...QUESTION IS TO WHAT DEGREE EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL ERODE LOW CLOUD DECK AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH. EXPECT THAT MOISTURE PUSH SHOULD EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUN WHICH SHOULD BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO BEHIND FRONT GENERALLY IN THE 20S/LOW 30S...SO EXPECT READINGS TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S/40S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/FAR NORTHERN LOWER ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AND WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. NEXT PROBLEM IS LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT/HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. FWC/FAN GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE OVERDOING TEMPERATURES IN LIGHT OF UPSTREAM READINGS...LATCHING ONTO STILL FAIRLY WARM THICKNESS VALUES (5520+ M) AND 850MB TEMPERATURES (+4 TO +8). HOW COLD TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BEING AS AIR MASS PUSHES SOUTH INTO AREA IS DIFFICULT TO SAY...BUT WILL TREND FWC VALUES DOWN 5-10 DEGREES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 30S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TONIGHT/ FRIDAY...WHILE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM 35-40...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY...COOLEST READINGS NEAR LAKE HURON. AND FINALLY...AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY AOB 750MB ON ALL THREE MODELS. EXPECT TO MAINLY FOG/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT WILL RETAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE BETTER QG FORCING PROGGED INTO THE AREA. DID MENTION SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR EASTERN UPPER TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER WITH BETTER INSTABILITY OFF TO THE WEST/SOUTH. COORDINATED WITH GRR/DTX. JPB NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 300 PM CST THU APR 01 1999 IN SHORT TERM...FCST PROBLEM IS HOW FAR SE WILL CDFNT MAKE IT. 20Z SURFACE ANLYS AND VISIBLE STLT SHOWD IT FROM MIDWAY BTWN YKN AND SUX TO NEAR OLU THEN TO SE OF AUH. LATEST RUC HAD FRONT AROUND AN OMA TO BIE LINE BY 06Z...FASTER THAN NGM AND AVN. ETAS SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO THE RUC AND SEEMS TO BE A LTL BETTER THAN AVN AND NGM AND WILL GENERALLY LEAN TOWARD THAT SOLUTION THIS FCST PD. SFC WINDS QUITE GUSTY BHND FNT WITH TEMPS IN 30S AND 40S FROM ONL-BBW NWWD. WL ADJUST TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE ALNG AND NW OF FRONT TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM. WOULD LOOK FOR LOW CLDS TO EITHER DVLP IN MSTR AXIS AHEAD OF FNT LATER TNGT OR FILL IN BHND FNT WITH LACK OF SFC HTG. BETTER 850 MB DWPTS HAVE PROBABLY GONE THE WAY OF THE LOW CLDS... BASICALLY PIVOTING NEWD TO THE NE OF OMA-TQE AND HAS SHIFTED BTR LOW LVL MSTR AXIS E AHD OF CDFNT. APPEARS FORCING NOT STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO OVERCOME MID LVL CAP SHOWN ON OAX 12Z SOUNDING AND WL LEAVE MOST OF AREA DRY TNGT. WL KEEP SLGT CHC THUNDERSTORMS IN FCST NWRN FCST AREA WELL NW OF FRONT. BEYOND TNGT FCST PROBLEM CONTINUES WITH FRONTAL LOCATION AND THEN PCPN CHANCES. LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO CHANGE VERY SLOWLY AS UPR LOW MOVS SLOWLY E/NE. MODELS DO SUGGEST JET SEGMENT LIFTING OUT OF SWRN U.S. INTO CNTRL PLAINS FRI AFTN INTO SAT MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE A WEAK SFC REFLECTION ALNG FNT FRI...AS PER ETA...BUT WITH FNT OVER FAR SERN NEBR INSTEAD OF FTHR NW WHICH NGM SUGGESTED. INFLUX OF MSTR INTO BOUNDARY...SFC LOW TRACKING ALONG IT...JET SEGMENT WEAKENING CAP AND PROVIDING LARGER SCALE LIFT...AND MODERATELY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES FCST BY MODELS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION MUCH OF AREA FRI NIGHT AND POSSIBLY EVEN AS EARLY AS FRI AFTN. WL MENTION THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF AREA FRI AFTN AND GO LIKELY FRI NGT. WL TREND PRECIP CHANCES DOWN SAT BUT LEAVE IT CLOUDY AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPS...WOULD EXPECT SOME EROSION OF LOW CLDS SERN NEBR ON FRI...AS WHAT HAPPENED BHND FNT TDAY. WILL TREND AREA FM OMA TO LNK AND SEWD AS EITHER PTSUNNY FRI OR BECOMING PTSUNNY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF FRONTAL POSITION NOT HIGH BUT WILL GENERALLY UNDERCUT FWC GUIDANCE 5 TO 10 DEGREES MOST AREAS THRU PD EXCEPT CLOSER TO GUID TNGT/FRI SERN NEBRASKA. .OMA...NONE CHERMOK NNNN ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1120 AM CST THU APR 01 1999 UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT FRONTAL POSITION AND LOW LVL CLOUD TRENDS. STLT SHOWD LOW CLDS LIFTING RAPIDILY NEWD WITH CLRG LINE APPROACHING OMA AT 17Z. LATEST RUC CLRS THE LOW CLDS OUT OF ECNTRL NEBR AND WRN IA ZONES AND BRINGS 15 DEG C 850 MB TEMP TO OMA. WITH GUSTY S SFC WNDS AND SW 850 MB WNDS...THESE TEMPS SHOULD MIX OUT TO ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH ARND 80 AS FAR NE AS OMA AND ADJUSTED FCST TO REFLECT THIS. CDFNT HAS PASSED THRU ONL WITH TEMP THERE IN MID 40S AT 17Z AND NW WND GUSTING OVR 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH FNT COULD MODIFY AS IT MOVS INTO AREA WITH LESS CLDS...MENTIONED FALLING TEMPS 3 NWRN COUNTIES IN OAX CWA AND ADJUSTED LOW TNGT THERE. .OMA...NONE CHERMOK NNNN ne STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1011 AM EST THU APR 1 1999 UPPER VORT AND SFC MOIST CONV BNDRY CAUSING SHRA DEVLPMNT ACROSS CENT SC SW INTO S CENT GA. ISEN LIFT PCPN PUSHING E THRU N CST. 12Z RUC II CONT TO INDICATE UPPER VORT MOVG ACROSS STATE TODAY...OVERHEAD CAE 18Z PUSHING TO N CST BY 21Z. DRYING EXPECTED ALOFT...INDICATED BY MODELS AND VAPOR IMAGERY. AS UPPER VORT/ISEN LIFT PUSH E TOD...TREND FOR BEST RA COVERAGE TO PUSH EAST THRU THIS MORN. SFC BNDRY SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT...LOW LVL MOIST WILL REMAIN. CANT RULE OUT SCT AFT SHRA/TSRA OVR CAE CWA WITH MODELS INDICATING RESPECTABLE LI/TT INDICES THIS AFT WITH TEMPS REACHING CONV TEMP. .CAE...NONE MILLER NNNN sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1021 AM CST THU APR 1 1999 DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM SANDERSON TO MIDLAND TO EAST OF LUBBOCK AT 16Z. DEW POINTS IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 60S. MOISTURE FAIRLY SHALLOW AT THIS TIME BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE CAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE BY MODIFYING FORECAST SOUNDING. STILL ATMOSPHERE LIKELY TO REMAIN CAPPED BY WARM AIR ALOFT. RUC MODEL HAS GRADIENT DECREASING BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE WINDS REACH FORECAST SPEEDS IN EARLY AFTERNOON. SENDING OUT WRKSJ1 TO REMOVE MORNING REFERENCES. 04 NNNN tx COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 300 AM CST THU APR 01 1999 SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. KCRP/KBRO 88D VWP AND 06Z RUC ARE SHOWING A LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOG PROBLEMS THIS MORNING. 00Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING GOOD LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO SET UP TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IR ALREADY SHOWING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ABOUT TO ENTER RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT INSOLATION TODAY. DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS THIS MORNING...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MIXING TODAY. WINDS MAY STILL APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE FOR NOW. WILL STAY NEAR FORECASTED MAX TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. LONG TERM...MID LEVEL FLOW TO BACK AND STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG OUT WEST. PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED -RASH ACTIVITY ACROSS NW PARTS OF FA NEAR H7 THTE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AM RELUCTANT TO INTRODUCE POPS (>= 20 PCT) AT THIS TIME. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY IN COASTAL ZONES ON FRIDAY AS ETA AND AVN SHOWING TIGHT GRADIENT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. EXTENDED...WEATHER WILL BE UNSETLLED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MRF SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER TROF TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL UPDATE FORECAST FOR MONDAY TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MARINE...WITH GRADIENT CONTINUING TO TIGHTEN THROUGH FRIDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WILL MENTION SCEC FOR COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS. SCA LIKELY TO BE ISSUED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CRP EE 079/069 080/069 080 72001 VCT EE 077/065 079/067 080 72001 LRD EE 083/068 084/069 085 72001 AP...72 (SYN) ML...73 (MESO) .CRP...NONE. NNNN tx UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH 1120 PM MST WED MAR 31 1999 SORRY THIS IS LATE. BEEN REAL BUSY. UPGRADED AND EXTENDED MOST ADVISORIES TO WARNINGS FOR THE 900 PM UPDATE...AND HAVE VERIFIED SEVERAL SO FAR. HAVE A HUNCH THIS COULD BE A BIG STORM. MODELS KEEP UPPER LOW OVER STATE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT DIFFER ON POSITION. RUC CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO FOR LATER TONIGHT WHICH IMPLIES SOUTH WINDS IN NORTHERN UTAH. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL OCCUR. AVN TAKES UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN UTAH BY EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD CUT OFF PRECIP IN THE NORTH...BUT LOW RETRACKS NORTH BY AFTERNOON...SO AS WITH ALL CUT OFF TYPE LOWS...WE'LL HAVE TO BE PATIENT. SLC ++66 CDC +865 BURCH .SLC...HVY SNOW WRNG MOST CWFA MTNS AND HIGHER VALLEYS. SNOW ADVISORY LOWER VALLEYS IN NRN CWFA AND CENT UT. NNNN ut AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 315 PM EST THU APR 1 1999 AWIPS 88D COMPOSITE/LIGHTNING PLOT INDICATED THAT MAIN BATCH OF RAIN WAS OFF TO THE EAST. SCT SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AREA OF LAPS 17Z LI OF MINUS 2...CAPES OF 600 J/KG AND NEAR SURFACE REL VORT MAX HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AND SHOULD BE GONE BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SECOND AREA OF SCT SHOWERS IN SERN PORTION OF CWA MAY STILL BE AROUND THIS EVENING AND SMALL POP MAY BE INSERT IN SE ZONES DEPENDING ON LATEST RADAR PIX. VSBL SAT IMAGE PICTURE DISPLAYED SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS ESP IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF RNK CWA. REVIEW OF THE MM5 SOUTHEAST SHOWED RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH WAA PCPN HEADING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING END OF PERIOD. THE AWIPS 500MB COMBO OF AVN...NGM...ETA AND RUC SHOWED TROF PIVOTS EAST...THEN RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS FA AS LOW CENTER CURVES ITSELF OUT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 48 HOURS. MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT OPINIONS ON WEAK PULSES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE. REVIEW OF THE MSL PRES FIELDS ALSO YIELDED SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT PLACEMENT OF FRONT. ETA/NGM APPEAR TO BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN SYS ASSOCIATED WITH WM FNTL BOUNDRY. THE 85H TEMP REVIEW INDICTED A VARIETY OF OPINIONS ON HOW FAR EAST AND HOW QUICK THE PLUS 12 AIR MOVES OUR WAY. IN THE LONG RANGE...MRF LOOK ABIT WET AND TRENDED PACKAGE TOWARDS EUROPEAN SOLUTION. HAVE A GUD NIGHT. .RNK... VA...NONE NC...NONE WV...NONE. KK NNNN va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 927 PM EST THU APR 1 1999 PER 21Z RUC SBN SKEWT SHWNG SATRTD LWLVLS OVERNIGHT AND SHARP INVRSN BLO 8H AND 3.9 IR SHOWING CLRG INTO ERN IL HALTING ITS PROGRESS WL GO WITH CLDY WORDING TONIGHT. AREAS OF BR WITH WDSPRD 1-3SM XPCTD 08Z- 12Z BUT LACK OF CLRG SHOULD PRECLUDE WDPSRD DNS FG. WL GO WITH A SMALLER TMP RANGE IN IN ZNS...DOWN TO NEAR CRNT DPS OR LWR 50S FOR LOWS TONIGHT. INCRSD 8H FLOW SHOULD GIVE US A BETTER CHC TO LOSE SOME LW CLDS FRI AFTN. .IWX...NONE MURPHY NNNN in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 915 PM EST THU APR 1 1999 SFC ANAL SHOWS A WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL WI WITH ENE FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF FRONT KEEPING THE U.P. UNDER CLOUDS THIS EVENING. 00Z RUC SHOWS A WEAK WAVE TO MOVE INTO MN OVERNIGHT...BEST VORT ADV/Q-VECT CONV/LIFT TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SYNOPTIC PRECIP OVER NW MN AND ND CORRESPONDING WITH THE AREA OF BEST UVM . MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW HIGH LOW LEVEL RH TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT UVM NEAR THE SFC. THIS TO CONTINUE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...WITH THE WEAK UVM ENOUGH TO AID IN PATCHY -DZ/FZDZ FORMATION. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET WITH THESE FEATURES. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER PORTION OF MIN FCST RANGE...GIVEN CLOUDS AND WIND...DON'T EXPECT MUCH MORE THEN A COUPLE DEGREE DROP THUS PREVIOUS TEMPS LOOKING GOOD. WILL ONLY UPDATE WESTERN MOST ZONES TO ADD PATCHY-FZDZ WHICH WILL CORRESPOND WITH THE CURRENT MIN TEMP FCST OF 30 TO 35. AREA RIVER STILL SHOW SLIGHT RISES FROM SNOW MELT...BUT ALL WELL BLO FLOOD LEVELS. .MQT...NONE. LULOFS NNNN mi MINNESOTA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 PM CST THU APR 1 1999 LATEST SFC CHART SHOWS WEAKENING LOW NEAR MVE WITH CLEARLY DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST THRU GYL-HCD-MSP. COLD FRONT SURGING EAST ACRS SRN MN ATTM...WITH 1 TO 1.5 MB/HR RISES BEHIND IT IN STG CAA. NEW RUC KEEPS SFC LOW TRACKING NEWD OVRNT AND FILLING...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND EXIT OF BETTER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NRN MN. 00Z RAOBS SHOW SIGNIFCANT CAP OVR AREA TONIGHT. WILL DOWNGRADE POPS AND TWEAK ZFP FOR PASSAGE OF SFC FEATURES. .MSP...NONE. DAVIS NNNN mn MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 957 PM PST THU APR 1 1999 SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG DISTURBANCE ROTATING OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATER TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE THE SOUTHERN MOJAVE DESERT...AND SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET. OTHERWISE... COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING HIGHER TERRAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY BEFORE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS BISECTING COLD UPPER LOW AND OUR AREA FROM THE N-NE THROUGH THE S-SW CONTINUES AS THE MAIN PLAYER THIS EVENING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL VORT HAS SPUN UP ON THE SOUTH END OF THIS SHEAR AXIS MOVING ONSHORE EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS SENDING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA AT THIS TIME WITH RECENT INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING CONSIDERABLE ENHANCEMENT. YUMA RADAR VERIFIES INCREASING PRECIPITATION ACROSS DESERTS SPREADING INTO WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. NEW ETA AND AVN AGREE SENDING STRONG VORT INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA JUST BEFORE 12 UTC WITH STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY ACROSS SRN MOHAVE COUNTY REVERSING THEN TO DOWNWARD BETWEEN 12 AND 15 UTC. NEW ETA QPF NOT FAR OFF FROM RUC WITH 3 HOURLY TOTALS GREATER THAN 0.10 INCH SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY FROM 06-12 UTC. SO EVENT LIKELY ALREADY JUST STARTING...BUT WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET AND 6 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE HUALAPAI'S. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE RULING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS STRONG VORT WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW TO THE S-SW INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS STILL CONTINUING BASED ON SATELLITE AND THE FEW SURFACE REPORTS RECEIVED. LARGE SCALE ZONE UPDATES TO THE FIRST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR ALL THESE CHANGES. SOME BLENDING INTO THE SECOND PERIOD OF THE ZONES...BUT OVERALL MADE RELATIVELY FEW CHANGES PERIODS 2-4. MAC .LAS...A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY. CHECK WITH THE LATEST RNOWSWLAS FOR DETAILS. NNNN nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 830 PM EST THU APR 1 1999 CURRENT...PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA AND BY THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUANCE I SHOULD BE ABLE TO PULL MENTION OUT THE MENTION OF POPS. 21Z RUC SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST AND MATCHES FAIRLY CLOSELY TO WATER VAPOR AND WITH REALITY (PCPN AT 01Z). ON THE CLOUD AND FOG FRONT...THE CLOUD PRODUCT (11-3.9 MICRON) SHOWS THAT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 0045Z WERE EAST OF A CHS TO FAY LINES. THUS WILL CHANGE CLOUD COVER IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT FOG TO BECOME A PROBLEM WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. .ILM...NONE. HAWKINS NNNN nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 425 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 FCST CONCERNS ARE PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THRU FCST PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS DEEP UPPER TROF WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN STATES. DOWNSTREAM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL REVOLVE AROUND SHORTWAVES EJECTING NE OUT OF WESTERN TROF. ONE SHORTWAVE HEADING NNE THROUGH NW MN ATTM. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE AND INVERTED TROF REFLECTED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS MN. SFC LOW LOCATED JUST SW OF KMPX. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW EAST ACROSS CNTRL WI INTO N LWR MI. N OF STATIONARY FRONT...WAA AND UVM...WITH DRY MID LEVELS AS SHOWN ON 00Z KGRB SOUNDING...RESULTING IN AREAS OF -DZ ACROSS MUCH OF FA. TO OUR SW...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE HAS TRIGGERED SMALL BKN LINE OF -SHRA AND EVEN -TSRA ACROSS ECNTRL MN AND NW WI. 00Z MODELS AND 06Z RUC INDICATE BEST FORCING AS SHOWN BY 850-500MB QVEC CONV WILL MOVE W/NW OF FA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOSE ENOUGH AND BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL INTRODUCE SCT MORNING -SHRA FOR W FA. AS LIFT EXITS FA LATE MORNING...-DZ WILL END BUT LOW OVERCAST WILL REMAIN. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE E TO SE THIS AFTN AS INVERTED TROFING DEVELOPS INTO UPPER MI. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NCNTRL. LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES MID 50S AT KESC. WITH FLOW DEVELOPING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...50S OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM KISQ TO KMNM AND WILL CUT GUIDANCE 10 TO 15 DEGREES. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR LK MICHIGAN AS WELL WITH MOIST FLOW TRAVERSING COLD WATERS. AS EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF UPPER AIR PATTERN...MODELS DIFFERENT IN TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TO EJECT NE TONIGHT/SAT. ETA STRONGEST AND QUICKEST WHILE NGM SLOWEST AND AVN A COMPROMISE. WILL TREND TOWARD AVN AND HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION TONIGHT. WILL BRING IN CHC POPS FOR SAT...BEST CHC WEST CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING. NE/E SFC FLOW TO DOMINATE SAT SO TEMPS COOLER AGAIN NCNTRL. .MQT...NONE. ROLFSON NNNN mi COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 300 AM CST FRI APR 02 1999 SHORT TERM...00Z CRP SOUNDING WAS SATURATED TO 850 MB AS STRONG LOW LEVEL THTE ADVECTION ON THURSDAY CONTRIBUTED TO LOTS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. -DZ HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO WILL MENTION FOR THIS MORNING. ETA AND 03Z RUC MAINTAINING GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WEAK IMPULSES IN STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE MAINTAINING ENHANCED CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MEXICO. AS IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...SOME PATCHY -RA WILL DEVELOP SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER MUCH OF AREA TODAY. SIGNIFICANT MIXING LOOKS DOUBTFUL TODAY AND WITH 88D VWP SHOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 30 KNOTS...WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW AND GO WITH CAUTION ON LAKES. WILL STAY CLOSE TO MAX TEMPERATURES ON PREV PACKAGES. LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH MAINTAINING LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS TO STAY WELL NORTH WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHING NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT LAYER TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM ETA AND AVN SHOWING A PRETTY STRONG CAP OVER AREA ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE CAPE/LI FORECASTS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY. HARD TO ARGUE WITH CURRENT POP FORECASTS SO WILL LET THESE NUMBERS RIDE. EXTENDED...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET TO APPROACH SOUTH TEXAS AND THINK THAT THIS COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OVER CROSSROADS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LAYERED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS STILL INDICATING A GOOD CAP OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. LATEST MRF CONSISTENT WITH PAST RUNS IN MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE COASTAL BEND ON MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO... CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. MARINE...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ALONG BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED. CRP CE 078/071 081/070 083 72222 VCT CE 076/069 081/069 082 72223 LRD EE 085/070 088/070 088 72211 AP...72 (SYN) ML...73 (MESO) .CRP...SCA BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275 NNNN tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 330 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 TRANQUIL NIGHT. SCT-BKN STRATUS MAKES THE FULL MOON LOOK RATHER EERIE. FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALMOST STAGNANT. STILL A 3-6 KT WRLY WIND COMING OFF THE ERN SLOPES AND THIS IS KEEPING THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD. IR FOG CURVE DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING WIDESPREAD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A COUPLE OBSERVATION SITES REPORTING VSBYS AOB 1/4. COORDINATED WITH AKQ AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ANY DENSE FOG ADV...UNLESS TRENDS CHANGE. HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN OVER THE U.S TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROF IN THE WEST IS COMPLIMENTED BY SHARP RIDGE IN THE EAST. WITH RIDGE OVHD DON'T EXPECT TOO MUCH EXCITEMENT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. COORDINATED WITH WBC CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND WE ARE IN PRETTY MUCH AGREEMENT THAT POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW IN THE NEAR TERM. ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA IS MOIST BUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND CAPPING INVERSION. A LOOK AT THE RUC SOUNDINGS FOR 18 UTC THIS AFTN AND THERE IS A STRONG CAP BETWEEN 700-800 MB. CAPES FOR OUR CWA ARE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 500-700 J/KG AND WITH LACK OF LIFTING MECHANISM DON'T SEE ANYTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT MORE THAN A 20 POP. FOR TONIGHT SFC WINDS BECOME SERLY. WITH BLYR MOISTURE RELATIVELY HIGH...THINK TONIGHT MAY BE THE BETTER NIGHT FOR STRATUS AND FOG. LL FLOW WILL POOL MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO THICK FOG AND OR STRATUS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THE ETA MODEL DOES SPIT OUT A LITTLE PRECIP SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING ANY ATTM. PER DSCN WITH AKQ...MOST LIKELY METEOR WOULD BE DRIZZLE. .RNK... VA...NONE NC...NONE WV...NONE. PM NNNN va STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 845 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 QUICK LOOKS THIS EARLY AM AT THE 09Z AND 12Z RUC AND LAST NIGHT'S 03Z MESO ETA INDICATE GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH SEA BREEZE FRONTS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SEEM MARGINAL BUT COMBINED WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON CONVERGENCE AND TEMPERATURES MID 80S TO NEAR 90 (CLEWISTON HAD 91 ON THURSDAY) IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH FLORIDA ZONES. 50 .MIA...NONE. NNNN fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1110 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 PER 12Z RUC MODEL AND OBS VIS SATELLITE TREND THIS AM... WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR PARTIAL SUN THIS PM AND WARMER TEMPS. MUCH BETTER MIXING TDA VS YDA AND UPSTREAM RAOBS THIS AM SUPPORT LOW 80S WITH FULL SUN SO WILL TWEAK ACCORDINGLY. .IWX...NONE. TEH NNNN in STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 950 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER ILLINOIS WHILE THICKER CLOUDS IN WRN INDIANA WARMING. RUC DATA SHOWS RH FIELDS DRYING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD AGREE WITH SATELLITE TRENDS EXPECTED. THUS WILL UPDATE ZONES TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TWEAK TEMPERATURES IN SOME/MOST OF OUR ZONES TO MIDDLE 70S. .IND...NONE. TUCEK NNNN in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 950 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 WILL UPDATE FORECAST AROUND 15Z TO REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS FOG FINALLY BURNING OFF. HOWEVER...PARTS OF ERN KY HAVE CIGS BETWEEN 3- 4KFT. WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH KY THIS MORNING PRODUCING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS IN SCNTL KY. 12Z RUC SHOWS SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK UVM THROUGH 18Z MOVING FROM SCNTL KY INTO NE KY. MID AND HI CLDS PREVALENT IN WRN KY SW INTO WRN TN STREAMING TO THE NE. THERE WILL BE PEEKS OF SUNSHINE TODAY BUT THERE WILL BE MORE CLDS THAN SUN SO WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR BECMG MOSTLY CLOUDY. WILL ADD A FEW SPRINKLES TO OUR WRN ZONES AS WELL. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR NOW SO NO PLAN TO CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS. WHP NNNN ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1115 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 WILL UPDATE ZONES TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SOME FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU QUICKLY FILLING IN BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LACK OF CU TO OUR WEST LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH CU SCHEME UTILIZING THE 12Z RUC DATA. THIS POINTS TO CONTINUED CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY... WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WHEN LOOKING AT MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA. IN ADDITION... MID AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING BY TO OUR SOUTH. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE PEAKS OF SUNSHINE... MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE. SO... WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST AS IS. AS FOR PCPN... WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS WELL. FEEL CAP IN PLACE SHOULD PREVENT ANY PCPN FROM FORMING. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL ERODE THE CAP SOME... BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION. IN ADDITION... THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVENT ANY GOOD LAKE BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE FROM SETTING UP AND HELPING THINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UP SOME HOWEVER... BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED PEAKS OF HAZY SUN. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE... AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE 03Z ETA AND 12Z RUC POINT TO HIGHS OF AROUND 70 FOR MOST OF THE INLAND PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHERN LOCATIONS NEARER THE WARM FRONT WILL BE A BIT COOLER... AS WILL THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES. WILL MOVE MOST TEMPERATURES UP A CATEGORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THINGS. ZONES WILL BE ISSUED BY 1120 AM. TRH NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 745 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 FOG RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AROUND 09Z ACROSS MUCH OF FA. MANY OBSERVING LOCATIONS NOW REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 1/4SM OR LESS NOW. ONLY AREAS NOT SEEING MUCH FOG ARE ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WHERE LIGHT E WIND IS DOWNSLOPING. 09Z RUC INDICATES WEAKENING SFC LOW NORTH OF KMSP WILL TRACK TOWARD SW UPPER MI TODAY. THIS SUPPORTED BY 03Z MESOETA. STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CNTRL WI MAY DRIFT N TOWARD UPPER MI...BUT NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT TO BORDER. MOIST LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH SFC CONV N OF FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN FOG ACROSS MUCH OF FA TODAY. WILL ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING FROM KEWEENAW PENINSULA S AND E ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL UPPER MI. .MQT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING MIZ001-003>005-010>014. ROLFSON NNNN mi FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1025 AM CST THU APR 2 1999 MORNING ANALYSES INDICATE THAT AIRMASS CONTINUES TO LOAD UP FOR SOME WEEKEND FIREWORKS. WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR MINOR WORDING ADJUSTMENTS. 12Z RUC PRODUCES RAPID DESTABILIZATION OVER THE ARKLATEX THIS AFTERNOON WITH 70-80% MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. CAPES APPROACH 3000 WITH CAP WEAKENING TO LESS THAN 3 DEGREES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8C. THESE NUMBERS COULD BE ACTED UPON BY AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK AT 300-200MB SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT THERE THAT COULD LATER TRACK INTO NORTHWEST MS. OTHERWISE...FIRST SHOT WITH SUBSTANTIAL MESOSCALE SUPPORT SHOULD COME IN LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. .JAN... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. NNNN ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1002 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 H5 RIDGE WILL CONT TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH WEAK SFC TROF PUSHING OFFSHORE. FOG IS RAPIDLY BURNING OFF PER LATEST VIS IMAGERY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SFC RIDGE AXIS BEHIND THE TROF IS PROGGED BY 12Z RUC TO BUILD SOUTH TODAY AND COULD SEE WINDS GO LIGHT NORTHEAST BY AFTN. MAY MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO WIND DIRECTION. WITH ABUNDANT SUN BY NOON EXPECT TEMPS TO SOAR. BASED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS WITH FULL SUN ONGOING TEMP FCST LOOKS GOOD. CWF: WILL TWEAK WINDS A BIT BASED ON ABOVE DISC AND REMOVE FOG BUT REST OF CWF LOOKS GOOD. VAD WINDS LIGHT NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KFT AND WITH WEAKENING GRADIENT THIS AFTN EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. THANKS CHS FOR THE COORD. .ILM...NONE. MORGAN NNNN nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 905 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 LOOKING AT ETA AND RUC MODEL SNDGS THIS AM...LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME CLOUDS WILL BE HANGING AROUND ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE BREAKS OVR THE CSTL PLAIN. VIS SAT IMAG SHOWING BACK SIDE OF STRATUS DECK ERODING RAPIDLY. WITH NELY WIND AT THE SFC...CLOUDS OVR OUTER BANKS AND IMMEDIATE COAST WILL TAKE LONGER TO DISSIPATE. CURNT FCST TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH WARMER TEMPS OVR CSTL PLAIN WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED. MARINE: WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N WINDS WILL SLOWLY COME AROUND TO THE NE THIS AFTN. DUE TO LACK OF TIGHT PRES GRAD WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT TODAY...10 TO 15 KT. .MHX...NONE. ORROCK NNNN nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 940 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 SEEMING A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY AS PLENTY OF CLDS OFF TO THE W...WTH NOT TOO MANY BREAKS. CRNT ZFP MTN OF CLD/SUN MIX APPROPRIATE...BUT FEAR MORE CLDS THAN SUN MAY REQUIRE BUMPING DOWN HI TMPS ACRS FA. WL SEE WHAT NXT HRLYS COME IN AT. 12Z RUC DATA SHOWING WK S/WV OVR SRN IL TAKING ITS TIME GETTING HERE AND MOST OF PCPN ASSOC WTH THIS FEATURE APR NOT HITTING GRND. LIKE CRNT WORDING OF CHC SPRINKLES...AS THIS SHUD BE THE MOST OF WHAT TO EXPECT WTH MDL SNDG PRETTY DRY ABOVE LLVLS AND NOT UVV TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE. UNFORTUNATELY...NO CRNT SNDG FOR ILN TO BACK THIS UP. MISILN OUT IN A FEW. .ILN...NONE. NNNN oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 955 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 FOG HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED AND LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ERODING AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WELL ON THEIR WAY TO FORECAST MAXIMA. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD COME ONSHORE WITH A PRETTY GOOD SEABREEZE. MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME DO NOT BELIEVE CHANCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FORECAST. CWF...DO NOT SEE MANY CHNGS FOR UPDATE. WL REMOVE MENTION OF FOG. CURRENT OBS SHOW WNDS N/NW. RUC INDICATES NW WND TO BECOME VAR INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. .CHS... .SC...NONE. .GA...NONE. /JCI NNNN sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 945 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 LTST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK CDFNT ALG NJ CST WITH LOWERG DEW POINTS TO N. STGST PRES RISES OVR SRN NEW ENG SUGG FRONT WL CONT TO WORK DOWN THE CST TDY. WITH LL FLOW ALREADY N/NE OVR FA...LL MOISTURE WL B SLOW TO MIX OUT NR CST. ALSO 09Z RUC TM SECTIONS INDICATING INCRSG MID/HI LVL MOISTURE RIDING OVR UPR RDG THIS AFTN. SKY COND FCST A BIT TRICKY THIS AFTN...WL LIKELY B SUNNY FOR A TM INLAND AREAS ARND MIDDAY THEN INCRSG HI CLDS THIS AFTN. NR CST...LOW CLDS SLOWLY ERODE THRU MIDDAY THEN AT LEAST PTSUNNY THIS AFTN. AFTN HIGH TEMPS QUITE SUN DEPENDENT WITH STABIL PROGRAM INDICATG FULL SUN TEMPS M70S. WL TAPER HIGHS BACK NR CST DUE MR CLD CVR AND ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WL ENTER FA TNT. WL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN ONSHORE FLOW/MARINE INFLUENCE. LOW LVL MOISTURE RMNS HIGH...XPTG MR ST/FG FORMATION OVRNGT. CWF...N/NE WINDS INCRSG A BIT AS BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THRU...BUT NOT XPTG SCA THIS TM. .AKQ...NONE. CULLEN NNNN va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 1045 AM CST FRI APR 2 1999 THUNDERSTORM CHCS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FCST PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED 12Z GRB SOUNDING INDICATED CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG...WITH LI'S AROUND -3 IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. A WEAK CAP WAS NOTED BETWEEN 650 AND 700 MB. 12Z RUC SHOWED THE LFQ OF A H3 JET STREAK MOVG INTO NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WEAK VORT MOVG INTO C WI BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. EXPECT THESE FEATURES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BREAK THE WEAK CAP. THUS...HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE 1ST PERIOD FCST. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN TO 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF MY CWA...BUT MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND FOG HAS HELD TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S FARTHER NORTH. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOVMT OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF NC/NE WI TO WARM INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP LK/BAY AREAS AROUND 50. KIECKBUSCH WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB NNNN wi