AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 130 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003 MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT HEAVY RAIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA INDICATE A LEAD 500 MB SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...WHICH EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. PLENTY OF BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE OVERCAST...AND RADAR/SATELLITE SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE LARGER SCALE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS MISSOURI FRIDAY. ETA/GFS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THE LOWER TROP WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THIS PERIOD. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS WEAKER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS /850 MB WINDS 20 KT OR LESS/. ABSENCE OF A LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD LIMIT STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND KEEP THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT MORE LOCALIZED THAN RECENT DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF ANY WATCHES. HPC QPF GUIDANCE INDICATES AVERAGE QPF IN THE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH RANGE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER GFS TIMING FOR THE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH ETA/GFS AGGRESSIVELY DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL TREND SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY DRIER AND LESS HUMID THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. OVERALL SCENARIO IS MUCH DRIER THAN EARLIER MODELS INDICATED. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOW LITTLE AGREEMENT. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DURING MID WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR. MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY. NGM/AVN MOS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOWS AND WILL BE FOLLOWED. WILL FOLLOW SLIGHTLY LOWER AVN MOS FOR HIGHS. .PAH...NONE. $$ MY ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1015 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003 LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO EAST TX DURING THE LATE MORNING. THIS WILL WARRANT LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON NE TX...HIGH END CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WILL LEAVE SEVERE IN FORECAST...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH LACK OF HEATING... AND ELEVATED NATURE OF MORNING SOUNDINGS...A 900 MB CAP AT SHV. WET BULB READINGS AROUND 13K ON HIGH END ALSO. HOWEVER...RUC INDICATING INCREASING INSTABILITY...RATHER EXTREME BY AFTERNOON. MODEL PROBABLY WAS HOPING FOR SOME SUNSHINE. DUE TO LACK OF THAT...WILL BE KNOCKING TEMPS BACK TO AROUND 80 OR SO. CURRENT WINDS ALMOST LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WILL ADJUST DIRECTION AND LOWER SPEED. VII .SHV...NONE. $$ la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 940 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2003 .CURRENTLY...WATCHING THE LAST OF THE LOWER CLDS EXITING THE SRNMOST ZNS AS THE SFC FNT SLOWLY DROP S. FURTHER N...MAINLY JUST CI IN THE FAST ZONAL FLO. THE GRAD IS STILL FAIRLY STG...RESULTING IN GUSTINESS TO THE NLY WINDS. .SHORT TERM...NOT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FCST. THE NRN 2/3DS OF THE FA SHUD HAVE P/SUNNY SKIES WITH SUM CU LEFT OVER IN THE CAA AND CI SPLLING WED. 80A TEMPS SUPPORT MAXES TEMPS IN THESE PLACES. THE STRONGER GRAD MAY KEEP THE SEA BREEZE OUT FOR A LITTLE LONGER THIS AFTN. THIS MEANS THE MAXES PROBABLY WON'T BE AFFECTED AS MUCH AND WL KEEP THE RANGES HERE INTACT. WUD EXPECT WAA CLDS IN THE MID LEVEL TO REAPPEAR ACROSS THE SRN ZNS LATER THIS AFTN. BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LIFT...SUPPORTED BY THE 09Z RUC...WL LEAVE THE MENTION OF POPS OUT FOR THE SRNMOST ZNS THIS AFTN...BUT MAKE THEM MOSTLY CLOUDY LATER THIS AFTN. .LONG TERM...NO CHANGES PENDING RECEIPT OF THE 12Z MODEL SUITE. OBVIOUSLY SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...AND THE ULTIMATE SOLN WL BE DETERMINED IN THE FINAL RESTING PLACE OF THE FNT TO THE S. .MARINE...ISSUED AN EARLIER FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTINESS IN THE GRAD. HELD ONTO THE NLY GRAD FOR A WHILE THIS AFTN...THEN AS THE GRAD GOES SLACK...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LGT ONSHORE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WL UPDATE THIS MRNG FOR CLDS S...AND EXPECT TO HAVE THE UPDATE OUT BETWEN 1015 AND 1030 AM. .GYX...NONE $$ HAYES me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 200 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003 .SHORT TERM...TNGT AND TMRW... MAIN PROBLEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY ARE FFLDG AND SVR. AREA RAOBS SHOWING PWATS HIGHER THAN YDY. GPS IPWV DATA AROUND THE AREA ALSO SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT INCRS OVR THE PAST 24-36H. STORMS YDY WERE ALSO VRY EFFICIENT PRODUCING 1-3 IN/HR RAFL RATES WITH SOME FLDG. ALL IN ALL...FLOOD THREAT CONTS TO INCRS...AND WL CONT FLASH FLOOD WATCH. AS FOR SVR...WATCH BOX IN THE S ALREADY. JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IS PRIMED FOR SVR TODAY. BEST ORGANIZATION LIKELY IN THE N WITH STGST SHEAR...WHILE OVR THE S...BEST AEREAL CVRG XPCTD. DEEP LYR SHEAR STILL SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SVR. AGAIN TODAY WITH SHORT LINEAR HODOGRAPHS LINEAR MODE FAVORED WITH SVR MAINLY ASSOC WITH LEWPS/BOWING SEGMENTS. WET MICROBURSTS IN PCPN LOADED STORMS WL ALSO BE A PROB TODAY. SHEAR PARMS MUCH STRONGER IN THE RUC SNDGS...BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED AS WELL BY THE OBSERVATIONAL DATA. POPS CONT OVNGT AND CHC POPS AGAIN TMRW WITH ANOTHER REPEAT PERFORMANCE. 50 POPS BOTH PDS. MANNING .LONG TERM FRI NGT THROUGH THU... ETA STILL SHOWING THE CWA MOIST AND UNSTABLE SAT AND FNT WILL BE SINKING S OVR THE AREA. ANOTHER GOOD SHOT AT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION. WILL USE 40 POPS AREAWIDE FOR THE AFTN AND EVENING. BOTH MODELS NOW IN CONSENSUS IN FCSTG FNT S OF US...AND CWA IN DRY ZONE. WILL HAPPILY PULL POPS FOR SUNDAY. SHOULD BE COOLER AND A LTL LESS HUMID TOO. GFS KEEPS DRY AIR IN PLACE THRU MID WEEK. EXTENDED SHOWS NEXT FNT IN ON DAY 7...THURSDAY. RDH .LWX... DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVE DCZ001. MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVE MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011... MDZ013...MDZ014. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVE VAZ021...VAZ025>031... VAZ036>042...VAZ050>056. SVR TSTM WATCH #527 TIL 23Z VAZ021...VAZ025>026... VAZ036>039...VAZ050...VAZ055>057. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVE WVZ048>055. MARINE...NONE. SVR TSTM WATCH ALL ZONES TIL 00Z. md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1104 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2003 QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE SVR TSTM WATCH 527 IN THE S. NO OTHER CHGS ATTM. MANNING ...PREV DISCO FOLLOWS... FAIRLY MINOR CHGS TO THE FCST THIS MORN. PREV PKG HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON SITU AND HV UPDATED TO TWEAK WORDING. OTRW NO CHGS TO PREV PKG. TWO PRONGED CONCERN TODAY WITH SVR AND FFLDG. NO 12Z IAD RAOB BUT 11Z APG AND 12Z RNK SOUNDING SHOW PWATS HIGHER THAN YDY. GPS IPWV DATA AROUND THE AREA ALSO SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT INCRS OVR THE PAST 24-36H. STORMS YDY WERE ALSO VRY EFFICIENT PRODUCING 1-3 IN/HR RAFL RATES WITH SOME FLDG. ALL IN ALL...FLOOD THREAT INCRSG AND WL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT SRN MD. AS FOR SVR...TEMPS OFF TO THE RACES WITH SOME LOCS ALREADY ABV 80 IN SOME LOCS. MODIFIED RAOBS SHOWING 2-3KJ/KG AT PEAK HTG. LTL IN THE WAY OF CLD CVR COMPARED TO YDY. SHEAR PARAMETERS NOT TERRIBLY STG...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SOME SVR. AGAIN TODAY WITH SHORT LINEAR HODOGRAPHS LINEAR MODE FAVORED WITH SVR MAINLY ASSOC WITH LEWPS/BOWING SEGMENTS. SHEAR PARMS MUCH STRONGER IN THE RUC SNDGS...BUT NOT SUPPORTED AS WELL BY THE OPERATIONAL DATA. WL UPDATE SPS AND HWO AND CONT SVR WORDING IN THE ZFP. MANNING .LWX... DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVE DCZ001. MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVE MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011... MDZ013...MDZ014. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVE VAZ021...VAZ025>031... VAZ036>042...VAZ050>056. SVR TSTM WATCH #527 TIL 23Z VAZ021...VAZ025>026... VAZ036>039...VAZ050...VAZ055>057. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVE WVZ048>055. MARINE...NONE. md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1104 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2003 FAIRLY MINOR CHGS TO THE FCST THIS MORN. PREV PKG HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON SITU AND HV UPDATED TO TWEAK WORDING. OTRW NO CHGS TO PREV PKG. TWO PRONGED CONCERN TODAY WITH SVR AND FFLDG. NO 12Z IAD RAOB BUT 11Z APG AND 12Z RNK SOUNDING SHOW PWATS HIGHER THAN YDY. GPS IPWV DATA AROUND THE AREA ALSO SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT INCRS OVR THE PAST 24-36H. STORMS YDY WERE ALSO VRY EFFICIENT PRODUCING 1-3 IN/HR RAFL RATES WITH SOME FLDG. ALL IN ALL...FLOOD THREAT INCRSG AND WL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT SRN MD. AS FOR SVR...TEMPS OFF TO THE RACES WITH SOME LOCS ALREADY ABV 80 IN SOME LOCS. MODIFIED RAOBS SHOWING 2-3KJ/KG AT PEAK HTG. LTL IN THE WAY OF CLD CVR COMPARED TO YDY. SHEAR PARAMETERS NOT TERRIBLY STG...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SOME SVR. AGAIN TODAY WITH SHORT LINEAR HODOGRAPHS LINEAR MODE FAVORED WITH SVR MAINLY ASSOC WITH LEWPS/BOWING SEGMENTS. SHEAR PARMS MUCH STRONGER IN THE RUC SNDGS...BUT NOT SUPPORTED AS WELL BY THE OPERATIONAL DATA. WL UPDATE SPS AND HWO AND CONT SVR WORDING IN THE ZFP. MANNING .LWX... DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVE DCZ001. MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVE MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011... MDZ013...MDZ014. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVE VAZ021...VAZ025>031... VAZ036>042...VAZ050>056. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVE WVZ048>055. MARINE...NONE. md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1144 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2003 WV LOOP/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPR RDG AXIS OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WHILE TWO UPSTREAM SHRTWVS NOTED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. FIRST VORT MAX LIFTING NE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO ATTM AS BEST QG FORCING AND DPVA WILL STAY NW OF FORECAST AREA TODAY. RADAR LOOP INDICATES SHOWERS GENERALLY DIMINISHING OVER NE MN AS 30-35 KT 850 MB JET BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AHD OF ASSOC COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SECOND SHRTWV NOTED JUST NE OF MT IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH AGAIN BEST DYNAMICS WILL STAY NORTH. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POOLING OF MSTR/HIGHER DWPNTS ALONG THE INCOMING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY TO SPARK SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION. AGAIN TODAY...SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM WEST AND FORMATION OF FAIR WX CU WILL RESULT IN RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS AREA. MIXING 800 MB TEMPS DOWN TO SFC OFF AREA SNDGS SHOULD YIELD MAX INLAND TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH AND EAST TO MID 70S ALG THE WI BDR. LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS IN 60S ALONG SHORELINES IN ESE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY AND ON THE EAST SHORE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS OF MAX TEMPS AND INSERTING MORE OPTIMISTIC "MOSTLY SUNNY" WORDING FOR CLOUD COVER...NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY ON UPDATE. .MQT...NONE. VOSS mi SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1045 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2003 RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING AROUND SE MICHIGAN, BUT MORNING RAINFALL HAS BEEN LOCALLY HEAVY, AND SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WATCH AREA RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WE PLAN TO CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKE SURE THE DIMINISHING TREND WILL HOLD. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER SE MICHIGAN AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW WEAKER RETURNS ON THE NORTH FLANK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE AS NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL TEND TO FOCUS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN NORTHERN OHIO AND THEN TRACK EAST. FORECAST UPDATE WILL FRESHEN WORDING ON PRECIP. ALSO, MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE WARMEST IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD. HIGHS NEAR 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE WHILE READINGS AROUND DETROIT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE MID 60S. BT ...FULL MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... 00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA...WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING MINNESOTA WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS INDIANA...WITH FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING POTENTIAL. TRICKY FORECAST WITH CONTINUED MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN. AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER NORTH OF THE SHORTWAVE...THEY HAVE NOW BACKED THE AXIS OF GREATEST QPF FARTHER SOUTH. ETA IS TRENDING FASTER WITH THE SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE GFS IS TRENDED SLOWER. NO CLEAR MODEL OF CHOICE TO HANG YOUR HAT ON. BOTH HAVE CUT THEIR QPF BY ABOUT HALF COMPARED TO THE 12Z RUNS...BUT THE GFS 6 HOUR FORECAST IS STILL OVERDONE COMPARED TO 06Z OBSERVATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA. ETA IS A LITTLE UNDERDONE AS FAR AS MAX QPF AMOUNTS...AND MAINLY TOO FAST/TOO FAR NORTHEAST. NEITHER MODEL /NOR THE 00Z/03Z RUCS FOR THAT MATTER/ PICKED UP ON THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN TOL-TTF DURING THE 03Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. EARLIER PRECIP ACROSS LENAWEE/MONROE COUNTIES DEVELOPED ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT LAYER OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRAIGHT CAPE BUT SOME NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES/NEGATIVE EPV. HOWEVER MODIFYING THE FORECAST SOUNDING TO SATURATE THE COLUMN AND LIFTING FROM 900MB DOES PRODUCE UP TO 500 J/KG OF CAPE. ETA INDICATES THE THETA-E ADVECTION WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...A TREND SEEN BY STRENGTH/COVERAGE OF THE RADAR RETURNS NOW. TRANSITION FOR PRECIP FROM WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TO UPPER DEFORMATION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY REMAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING THOUGH...WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIP TO DEVELOP. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS >1.50 INCHES OBSERVED AT 00Z. 00Z DTX SOUNDING WAS RATHER DRY AT MID-LEVELS /ANOTHER REASON OVERNIGHT PRECIP HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING NORTHWARD AS THE FORCING DIMINISHES/...HOWEVER AMOUNTS OBSERVED UPSTREAM /WHICH ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION/ ARE OVER 150 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL DTX PWAT OF 0.86" FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SETUP LOOKS PRETTY INDICATIVE OF A SHARS EVENT /SUBTLE HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNATURE/. SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL VORT CENTER...STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED AND SURFACE/850MB LOWS TRACKING SOUTH OF THE STATE...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND 850MB DEWPOINTS. THIS IS GIVEN ADDED WEIGHT FROM KBTL RECEIVING ALMOST AN INCH OF QPF FROM APPARENTLY INNOCUOUS RADAR REFLECTIVITY. A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. EARLIER STORMS OVERNIGHT BROUGHT AROUND AN INCH OF PRECIP TO LENAWEE/MONROE COUNTIES /0.90" FELL IN 2 HOURS AT TOLEDO/. THIS IS ON TOP OF CONVECTION YESTERDAY ALONG THE BORDER WITH WAYNE/WASHTENAW COUNTIES THAT DROPPED UP TO 1.5" AS REPORTED BY COOP OBSERVERS. 3-6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS DOWN AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF FOR WASHTENAW/WAYNE COUNTIES...AND CAN BE DROPPED THAT LOW FOR LENAWEE/MONROE COUNTIES GIVEN RECENT PRECIP OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TODAY ON TOP OF THAT WHICH ALREADY FELL...WILL POST A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...GFS IS NOTICEABLY SLOWER TO PULL THE SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...AND EVEN BRINGS A BULLSEYE OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SLOWER SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT BOTH ETA/GFS ARE ALREADY TOO FAST /AS LEAST WITH QPF/ ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND SHORTWAVE IS SEMI-REMOVED FROM THE MEAN FLOW. HOWEVER I SEE NO REAL REASON FOR THE QPF MAX ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT UNDER GENERAL UPPER CONFLUENCE. WILL DISCOUNT IT FOR NOW...AND CONTINUE TO CARRY SCATTERED POPS THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THANKS FOR CHAT COORDINATION GRR/IWX/CLE. .DTX...FLOOD WATCH...TODAY AND TONIGHT...MIZ075-076-082-083. $$ BRAVENDER EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1005 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003 CONCERN WITH MRNG UPDATE IS AFTN/EVE CONVECTION...AND SEVERITY. DESPITE REMOVAL FROM SLGT RISK FM SPC FEEL THREAT STILL THERE. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLEARING AND TIMING OF SFC TROF/WIND SHIFT THRU CWA. NEW 12Z META SUGGEST BNDRY TO BOG DOWN FURTHER...ALIGNING IN N/S FASHION FROM KMKT/KHCD/KSTC BY 21Z AND INTO I-35 CORRIDOR BY 00Z. LOW/MID 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE REALIZED AS PER BAMEX/RUC/META...POOLING IN INCREASED SFC/H9 CONVERGENCE FIELDS THIS AFTN...WITH SAID DWPTS LIFTING OUT OF ERN SD/NERN NEB. LIFTING A ~75/63 PARCEL FROM 12Z KMPX RAOBS YIELDS ABOUT 1200-1500 J/KG AND LITTLE CIN. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR INVOF BNDRY SHUD BE ADEQUATE (~40KTS IN 0/6KM LAYER)...OVERALL WEAK WIND FIELDS AND LACK OF ANY SIG LARGE SCALE FORCING WOULD KEEP CONVECTION IN SCT FASHION ALONG BNDRY IN AREAS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE POOLING/CONVERGENCE. THIS CONFIRMED IN 4KM BAMEX FCST REF WHICH HAS BEEN VERY ACCURATE OF LATE. PBLM IS CLOUDS...CURRENT SHRA...AND PLUME OF DENSE CIRRUS LIFTING OVR BNDRY. RUC/BAMEX DO HINT THAT LATE AFTN CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE INVOF BNDRY AS DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN MID LVLS OVR BNDRY. VIS PIX CERTAINLY SUPPORT THIS THINKING. BNDRY STILL VRY FAR WEST...NEAR MN/SD BORDER...SO APPEARS SLOWING TREND IS OK. ALSO OF INTEREST IS 75KT SMALL JETLET OVR CWA WHICH ORIENTS OVR BNDRY IN INITIATION TIME FRAME WITH RRQ UPR DIVERGENCE INCREASING. WHILE NOT A SIG OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...FCST VGP VALUES ~0.2 AND SHARPLY CURVING LOW LVL HODOGRAPHS HAVE OUR ATTENTION IN 22Z-02Z TIMEFRAME IN ERN 1/2 OF CWA. $$ BINAU mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 740 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003 CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MO THIS EVENING.. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES PER HOURS. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN KS. ADDITIONALLY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MO IS MOVING THROUGH KC METRO AREA...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. STORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE NEARLY STATIONARY...RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF METRO AREA. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR TOPEKA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST...AND AS IT DOES SO SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE THREAT CONTINUE ACROSS CWA. HAVE UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO BUMP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL...AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO REMAINDER OF CWA. SEAMAN 315 PM... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN LARGER SCALE FLOW. MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY IS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT OVER EASTERN KS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED AT 19Z FROM NEAR ST JOSEPH TO JEFFERSON CITY. AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH MID TO UPPER 60 DEW POINTS POOLED ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR AREA OF INSTABILITY JUST NORTH OF BOUNDARY...WITH LI'S TO NEAR -7 ANALYZED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MO. BAND OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS FIRED ALONG BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO. ADDITIONAL AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS UNDER UPPER CIRCULATION. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR PROFILES...CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN PULSE/MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS REMAINDER OF CWA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER COLD POOL. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER CIRCULATION TO SLOWLY PASS ACROSS REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HAVE RETAINED POPS FOR MORNING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OTHERWISE REMOVED CHANCE POPS ACROSS WEST AS DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO CWA. NEW MODEL RUNS ARE MUCH DRIER THROUGH UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS WESTERLIES RETREAT INTO CANADA ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS REGION. SURFACE RIDGE PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS GREAT LAKES BACK INTO MID MO RIVER VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CWA. THIS WILL PUSH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RUNNING JUST A BIT ABOVE MAV/FWC GUIDANCE. SEAMAN 230 PM... CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IS A TOUGH FORECAST. FOR NOW I HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY, BUT THIS IS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ADVERTISE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS BURIES THIS FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES, THE ECMWF KEEPS IT IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI, AND THE CANADIAN MODEL FORECASTS IT TO DRIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES OVER SOUTHERN CANADA, MESOSCALE NUANCES WILL HAVE A BIG BEARING ON HOW THIS UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES AND MOVES. IF IT STALLS OVER EASTERN KANSAS OR MISSOURI, AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY, BUT FOR NOW I BELIEVE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TO OUR EAST OR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH A GENERAL EAST OR NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE. GFS GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE. KOCH 333 AM... MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND THE OUR CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GENERAL PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS REMAINS THAT OF WISHY WASHY FAST ZONAL FLOW WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE FEATURES. IN OTHER WORDS VERY CONFUSED. GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO DISPLAY PROBLEMS WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WHICH COMPLETELY MESSES UP THE MASS FIELDS. ETA HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE FORMATION OF SOME KIND OF UPPER LEVEL LOW OR VORTICITY SHEAR ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A FEW MODEL RUNS. THIS IS AT LEAST A FEATURE I CAN HANG A HAT ON. SO WHILE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY...I WILL GO WITH A ETA INFLUENCED FORECAST. FOR THIS MORNING I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. RUC DOES NOT THINK THE STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH OUR AREA...AND WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND INSTABILITY PREVAILING OVER THE NORTH HALF OF MISSOURI THIS MIGHT BE ACCURATE. BUT...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE CONVECTION AND ANTICIPATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES I FELT IT PRUDENT TO INCLUDE A LINGERING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA. CONTINUED OUR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING CONFIDENCE IS PARTICULARLY SHAKY. SURFACE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION COULD CONSPIRE WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO POP OFF PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...LESS THAT STELLAR LAPSE RATES DO NOT INSPIRE ME. SO...I CONTINUED WITH THE STATUS QUO FOR TODAYS CONVECTIVE CHANCES. AS STATED EARLY THE BEST FEATURE TO HANG ONES HAT ON IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES AS THE WEEKEND GOES ON. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE THERE. CUTTER 240 PM... FOCUS REMAINS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEBRASKA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ESCAPE MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL INCLUDE POPS GENERALLY WEST OF A GRANT CITY TO MOUND CITY KANSAS LINE. AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND DROPS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO SATURDAY WITHIN THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. EXPECT SPORADIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDE LOW POPS THROUGH THEN. HAVE NOT VEERED MUCH FROM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CURRENT PATTERN SHOULD YIELD READINGS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. LS .EAX... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 315 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN LARGER SCALE FLOW. MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY IS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT OVER EASTERN KS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED AT 19Z FROM NEAR ST JOSEPH TO JEFFERSON CITY. AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH MID TO UPPER 60 DEW POINTS POOLED ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR AREA OF INSTABILITY JUST NORTH OF BOUNDARY...WITH LI'S TO NEAR -7 ANALYZED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MO. BAND OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS FIRED ALONG BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO. ADDITIONAL AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS UNDER UPPER CIRCULATION. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR PROFILES...CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN PULSE/MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS REMAINDER OF CWA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER COLD POOL. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER CIRCULATION TO SLOWLY PASS ACROSS REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HAVE RETAINED POPS FOR MORNING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OTHERWISE REMOVED CHANCE POPS ACROSS WEST AS DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO CWA. NEW MODEL RUNS ARE MUCH DRIER THROUGH UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS WESTERLIES RETREAT INTO CANADA ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS REGION. SURFACE RIDGE PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS GREAT LAKES BACK INTO MID MO RIVER VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CWA. THIS WILL PUSH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RUNNING JUST A BIT ABOVE MAV/FWC GUIDANCE. SEAMAN 230 PM... CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IS A TOUGH FORECAST. FOR NOW I HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY, BUT THIS IS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ADVERTISE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS BURIES THIS FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES, THE ECMWF KEEPS IT IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI, AND THE CANADIAN MODEL FORECASTS IT TO DRIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES OVER SOUTHERN CANADA, MESOSCALE NUANCES WILL HAVE A BIG BEARING ON HOW THIS UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES AND MOVES. IF IT STALLS OVER EASTERN KANSAS OR MISSOURI, AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY, BUT FOR NOW I BELIEVE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TO OUR EAST OR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH A GENERAL EAST OR NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE. GFS GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE. KOCH 333 AM... MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND THE OUR CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GENERAL PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS REMAINS THAT OF WISHY WASHY FAST ZONAL FLOW WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE FEATURES. IN OTHER WORDS VERY CONFUSED. GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO DISPLAY PROBLEMS WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WHICH COMPLETELY MESSES UP THE MASS FIELDS. ETA HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE FORMATION OF SOME KIND OF UPPER LEVEL LOW OR VORTICITY SHEAR ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A FEW MODEL RUNS. THIS IS AT LEAST A FEATURE I CAN HANG A HAT ON. SO WHILE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY...I WILL GO WITH A ETA INFLUENCED FORECAST. FOR THIS MORNING I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. RUC DOES NOT THINK THE STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH OUR AREA...AND WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND INSTABILITY PREVAILING OVER THE NORTH HALF OF MISSOURI THIS MIGHT BE ACCURATE. BUT...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE CONVECTION AND ANTICIPATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES I FELT IT PRUDENT TO INCLUDE A LINGERING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA. CONTINUED OUR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING CONFIDENCE IS PARTICULARLY SHAKY. SURFACE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION COULD CONSPIRE WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO POP OFF PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...LESS THAT STELLAR LAPSE RATES DO NOT INSPIRE ME. SO...I CONTINUED WITH THE STATUS QUO FOR TODAYS CONVECTIVE CHANCES. AS STATED EARLY THE BEST FEATURE TO HANG ONES HAT ON IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES AS THE WEEKEND GOES ON. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE THERE. CUTTER 240 PM... FOCUS REMAINS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEBRASKA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ESCAPE MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL INCLUDE POPS GENERALLY WEST OF A GRANT CITY TO MOUND CITY KANSAS LINE. AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND DROPS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO SATURDAY WITHIN THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. EXPECT SPORADIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDE LOW POPS THROUGH THEN. HAVE NOT VEERED MUCH FROM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CURRENT PATTERN SHOULD YIELD READINGS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. LS .EAX... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 920 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003 SFC ANYLS SHOWS LOW PRES OVER N CNTRL OH WHICH WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NEWD TNGT. MEANWHILE THE SFC BNDRY MEANDERS ACRS PA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A S/WV WHICH HAS MOVD INTO NW PA. THE RUC 300 MB WIND FIELD APPEARS TO PICK UP ON IT, ALTHO I CAN'T FIND IT IN MDL 500/700 MB VORT FIELDS. MODEL DIAGS DO NOT LOOK AS FOCUSED AS THEY DID LAST NGT IN INDICATING THE POTNL FOR FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER, AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST AND SCT/BKN CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THE NGT. OVERALL, I THINK THE FF RISK IS LOW BUT I'M VERY HESITANT TO DROP THE WATCH. WILL LEAVE THE FFA UP FOR THE OVERNGT HRS. FCST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK, BUT WILL HAVE TO TWEEK UP A FEW MINS. JUST AS AN ASIDE...WE AVERAGED A DEPRESSING 32% OF PSBL SUNSHINE DURING MAY. SO FAR THIS MONTH WE ARE AVERAGING 27%. IT JUST HAS TO GET BETTER THAN THIS, AND THANKFULLY IT APPEARS AS THO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAKING A WELCOME RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PREV AFD BLO. BRADY -------------------------------------------------------------------- MORNING MODEL RUNS FAILY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE FA. THE ETA AND GFS ARE NOW MORE SIMILAR WITH THEIR DIPICTION OF THE MID LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CAUSING DIFFS IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE, BOTH MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN ROTATING A DRY SLOT INTO THE WESTERN TIER, FINGER LAKES REGIONS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHC FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE EHHANCEMENT REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY, CATSKILLS AND NE PA WHERE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT. GFS LIFT AND MOISTURE FIELDS LINE UP WELL WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BEST LIFT ORIENTS NW TO SE FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO THE POCONOS THIS EVENING. WHILE THE AREA OF LIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTH THIS EVENING, THE BEST FOCUS THEN REMAINS ACROSS NE PA INTO THE CATSKILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES PRECIP IN THIS AREA. FLOOD WATCH PLACEMENT LOOKS GOOD FOR THE MOST PART, WITH THE ONLY QUESTION BEING WESTERN PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA WHICH MAY SEE THE DRY SLOT OR AT LEAST LIGHTER PRECIP DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND WHAT EFFECT THIS WOULD HAVE ON ROBBING SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN TO THE NORTH. LIGHTER SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC REFLECTION SLOWLY MEANDER EAST ACROSS NYS. MODEL DIFFS BECOME MORE APPARENT AGAIN 48 HOURS AS THE ETA IS MUCH SLOWER, CONTINUING TO MOVE THE LOW EAST ACROSS NYS, WHILE THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES THE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. ATTM, WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH OUR FORECAST AND KEEP SATURDAY DRY AFTER SOME MORNING CLOUDS. MAY ONLY INTRODUCE A CHC OF MORNING SHRA ACROSS FAR NORTH WHERE EVEN GFS SHOWS SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND SHRA POSSIBLE. EXTENDED (SAT NITE-THUR)...E-W ORIENTED FRONT SLIDES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA TO GO WITH A MAINLY DRY EXTENDED PERIOD. GENERALLY FOLLOWED TRENDS OF ENSEMBLE MREFS AND 00Z GFS WHICH KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AROUND DAY 7 THURSDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD ON TUES-WEDS SINCE FRONTS WILL BE MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND MOS FCSTG LESS THAN CLIMO CHCS...THEN BRINGING IN A CHC SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT ON THURS. .BGM...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN TIER NY, WESTERN CATSKILLS, NORTHEAST PA. SHORT TERM...JML EXTENDED...JAB ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1003 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2003 ZONES: MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING LIS THIS AFTERNOON REACHING -7 TO -8 WITH PWS AROUND 1.5 TO 1.8. RUC SHOWS THIS TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RUC ALSO DEPICTING WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE COAST FROM ILM TO OAJ. SO CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE TO UP COASTAL POP TO 30 AND EXPECT THE FOCUS TO SHIFT TO THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND. ON TEMPERATURES CURRENT FORECAST SCHEMES SHOWING TEMPERATURE IN FORECAST LOOK OKAY. CWF: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK GOOD FOR THE AFTERNOON. LATEST OBSERVED VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. LATEST RUC CONFIRMS THAT HIGHER SPEEDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY EVENING. PLAN TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND GO WITH S-SE AROUND 15 KT NEAR SHORE. SEAS AROUND 3 FT LOOK GOOD. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... ILM 089/072 086/072 3455 LBT 090/072 086/072 4455 FLO 090/072 087/072 4455 MYR 085/073 087/073 3455 .ILM... .NC...NONE. .SC...NONE. PUBLIC: HAWKINS MARINE: RAN -----------PREVIOUS DISCUSSION--------------------------------- TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. INSTABILITY NOT AS GREAT...BUT SHORTWAVE AND LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE CONTENT (PW NEARING 2 IN) SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALONG THE COAST...POPS HELD TO 20 PERCENT AS MORE STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT TAKES HOLD WITH PASSAGE OF SEABREEZE THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SO EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION EVEN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT. FRI...PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LATE DAY AND NIGHT...POPS KEPT TO HIGH CHANCE. ON SAT...COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS VA AND REALLY NO TRIGGERS ALOFT EVIDENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AIRMASS DOES NOT CHANGE AND SO LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVE. SUN...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THE MOVE AND PER GFS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE INROADS INTO FAR N CWA LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY ON MON AND THEN PUSH THROUGH REMAINDER OF AREA MON. MODEL SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH THIS BOUNDARY. AGAIN...SOUTHWARD PROGRESS HINGES ON BREAKDOWN OF BERMUDA RIDGE. FRONT WILL STALL S OF THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE AND THEN MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT AND WED. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE KEY TO HIGHER POPS. AT THIS TIME HAVE INCREASED POPS...GOOD CHANCE...SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED. MARINE: NOT MUCH NEW TO ADD TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. S-SW FLOW STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRES TO THE E AND LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY CAUSE THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE WATERS MON...AND WILL HAVE WINDS SHIFTING N-NE AS A RESULT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MON. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW WW3 FOR SEAS. PUBLIC: DIGIORGI MARINE: JAQ nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA 935 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003 LOOKING AT THE LATEST WEATHER AND MODELS... THE HIGH POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST LOOK TOO HIGH SINCE THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RUC STILL HAS DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT DRIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. 00Z ETA DOES NOT HAVE THIS... BUT BRINGS PRECIP FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT /WHICH THE RUC DOES NOT/. WILL LOWER THE POPS CONSIDERABLY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST... BUT GO AHEAD AND KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN. BETTER BET WILL BE WITH THE CONVECTION COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS SOUTH... BUT NOT TOO MUCH. UPDATES WILL BE SENT SOON. .26. -------------------------- 742 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003 AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINED ISOLATED AND HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE CWA. SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE OTHER CU THAT HAD BEEN BUBBLING IN THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO LOWER POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. POPS LATE TONIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL REEVALUATE SPECIFICS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. .26. -------------------------- 256 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003 THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A DRYLINE WAS FROM LUBBOCK EASTWARD TO NEAR CHILDRESS THEN SOUTHWARD TO SWEETWATER TO WEST OF SAN ANGELO...WITH A SFC LOW OVER LUBBOCK. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR HAS BEGUN TO MOVE BACK NORTH AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE BRINGING 70 DEWPTS INTO TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OK ZONES. THE 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS A CAP IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER WITH THE AFTN HEATING AND DRYLINE THINK THIS WILL BE BROKEN. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF DRYLINE AND THEN MOVE INTO FA. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP INTO A CLUSTER/S OF STORMS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING AS STORMS DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS AGAIN THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF AREA THAT WILL BE AFFECTED WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR UNLESS THINGS CHANGE BEFORE ISSUANCE TIME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTN THRU OVERNIGHT AS AN UPR LVL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPR LVL PATTERN MAKES A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED PERIODS. FORECAST ID = 25 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1058 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003 THIS IS A CONTINUATION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING... FOR THIS AFTERNOON...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEARLY ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE BUMPING UP AGAINST ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO ITS SOUTH. FARTHER WEST...THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME FASTER AND BETTER ESTABLISHED COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR A LINE FROM JUST EAST OF LUBBOCK...SOUTHWARD TO MIDLAND. LATEST RUC/ETA FORECASTS OF ALLOWING THE DRYLINE TO MIGRATE TO NEAR OUR WEST TEXAS COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON ARE REASONABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE DRYLINE AND THE KAMA/KMAF 12Z RAOBS THAT SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE EXTREMELY SHALLOW. FULL INSOLATION IS ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG THE DRYLINE...SO THIS PROGNOSIS LOOKS GOOD. THE EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED THE DEEPEST AND MOST UNSTABLE AIR COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE AREA. WESTERN EDGES OF THE LAST NIGHTS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAVE ALREADY WASHED OUT HOWEVER...WITH AREAS WEST OF METROPLEX EXPERIENCING SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES AND CAPES BETWEEN 3500-5000. CURRENT AREAL DEPICTION OF A MODERATE RISK OVER SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS WELL PLACED GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. DESPITE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE SHORTWAVES TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ASCENT ALONG THE DRYLINE...BELIEVE THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS LIKELY LATER TODAY GIVEN THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR LUBBOCK IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO. JAMES -------------------------- 838 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003 TWO MAIN AREAS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE FIRST AREA EXTENDS JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...FROM NEAR CHICKASHA...EASTWARD TO PAULS VALLEY...AND ATOKA AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SOME SUPPORT MIGHT ALSO BE PROVIDED BY DEFORMATION ZONE AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT LOVE MOVING TOWARD OUR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. THE SECOND AREA OF DEVELOPMENT IS ACROSS WOODS AND ALFALFA COUNTIES IN NW OKLAHOMA AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE YESTERDAY. THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS NEARLY STATIONARY AT THE MOMENT...AND COULD BE A FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ZONES WERE RECENTLY UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THESE AREAS...WHILE MAINTAINING THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. JAMES ------------------------- 400 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003 CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVE BEEN ON THE WAY DOWN THIS MORNING AND WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE CALL ON POPS FOR FIRST PART OF TODAY. EXPECT THAT AIRMASS WILL RECOVER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP WEST ALONG THE DRYLINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THEN MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN...STILL HARD AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT BEST LOCATION FOR FLOODING RAINS. MODELS SHOW STRONGER WAVE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AGAIN ON FRIDAY SO WILL LIKELY HAVE AT LEAST TWO MORE DAYS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AGAIN LOCATION OF STORM DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AFTER SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...THAT UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST WITH TIME. WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FA OVER THE WEEKEND. FCSTID = SIX OKC 89 71 88 68 / 30 60 40 40 HBR 94 70 95 68 / 40 50 30 40 SPS 93 72 93 69 / 40 50 30 40 GAG 91 66 90 63 / 40 40 40 40 PNC 88 70 85 66 / 30 60 40 40 DUA 89 73 89 70 / 30 60 30 40 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1020 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003 RESIDUAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WITH LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES A FEW HUNDRED TO NEAR A THOUSAND AND BOUNDARIES REMAINING IN THE AREA...WILL HAVE TO KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION MENTION GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. RUC AND 18Z GFS FEATURE A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPACTING THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS FEATURE IS POORLY DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. WILL LOWER POPS TO CHC THROUGH 2 AM AND THEN LOWER CHC OVERNIGHT. MINS LOOK REASONABLE WITH TEMPS APPROACHING DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION. .GSP... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. $$ HG sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 115 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003 WILL UPDATE FORECAST FOR SVR WATCH #527 COVERING MOST OF THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT UNTIL 7 PM EDT. **********************PREVIOUS DISCUSSION*************************** SATELLITE SHOWS MAIN LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND PROGRESSING TO THE NORTHEAST. FURTHER SOUTH...A RAGGED LINE OF CLOUDS POSSIBLY A OLD MCS OR VORT TAIL SWEEPING EAST INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SH/TS ALREADY FLARING UP ALONG THIS FEATURE THIS MORNING. ACTUALLY...THE RUC40 CONVECTIVE SCHEME APPEARS TO BE DOING A FAIR JOB WITH THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...WILL EXPECT PRIME TIME TO FALL AROUND 21Z AS IT SUGGESTS. 14Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES ALREADY AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH CIN REDUCED TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. A MODIFIED 12Z GSO SOUNDING WOULD YIELD CAPES APPROACHING 3K J/KG. WILL CONTINUE OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN. WILL UPDATE TO TWEAK TEMPS AS MORNING SUNSHINE HAVE TEMPS WARMING QUICKER THAN ADVERTISED. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS. FCSTID = 16 GSP 86 69 86 69 / 60 50 50 40 AND 86 69 86 68 / 60 50 50 40 CLT 86 70 86 69 / 60 50 50 40 HKY 84 68 83 68 / 60 50 50 40 AVL 79 65 80 64 / 60 50 50 40 .GSP... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. $$ NED sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1100 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2003 SATELLITE SHOWS MAIN LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND PROGRESSING TO THE NORTHEAST. FURTHER SOUTH...A RAGGED LINE OF CLOUDS POSSIBLY A OLD MCS OR VORT TAIL SWEEPING EAST INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SH/TS ALREADY FLARING UP ALONG THIS FEATURE THIS MORNING. ACTUALLY...THE RUC40 CONVECTIVE SCHEME APPEARS TO BE DOING A FAIR JOB WITH THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...WILL EXPECT PRIME TIME TO FALL AROUND 21Z AS IT SUGGESTS. 14Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES ALREADY AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH CIN REDUCED TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. A MODIFIED 12Z GSO SOUNDING WOULD YIELD CAPES APPROACHING 3K J/KG. WILL CONTINUE OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN. WILL UPDATE TO TWEAK TEMPS AS MORNING SUNSHINE HAVE TEMPS WARMING QUICKER THAN ADVERTISED. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS. FCSTID = 16 GSP 86 69 86 69 / 60 50 50 40 AND 86 69 86 68 / 60 50 50 40 CLT 86 70 86 69 / 60 50 50 40 HKY 84 68 83 68 / 60 50 50 40 AVL 79 65 80 64 / 60 50 50 40 .GSP... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. $$ NED sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 835 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2003 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ENDING THIS EVENING. WILL UPDATE FORECAST AFTER MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS ENDED. 00Z RUC IS SHOWING SOME WEAK 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...SO MAY INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. .UNR...NONE. $$ sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 310 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003 THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. ********************************************************************* AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION 310 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003 SHORT RANGE CONCERNS ARE HOW MUCH/HOW SOON SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OR MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW N-S BANDS OF SHRA HAVE BEEN MOVING NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BEST INSTABILITY IS TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...GENERALLY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING ANOTHER MCS TO OUR WEST LATE THIS EVENING AND TRACKING IT ACROSS US OVERNIGHT. THUS...FELT COMPELLED TO START OUT WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY TONIGHT THEN BUILD TO 65% TO 80% POPS IN THE GRIDS. THERE SEEMED TO BE SOME SUPPORT ON THIS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH POPS SEEMED ALMOST JUSTIFIED RIGHT UP TO SAT NIGHT (5TH PERIOD) BUT I DID LET POPS DECREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASED AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE (OR MCS) AFFECTS OUR REGION. WE CARRIED THIS DECREASING POP TREND INTO SUN/MON IN THE EXTENDED...DUE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGGING SOUTH OF TN AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NE STATES LIFTING NE AND ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE SLIGHTLY. THESE TWO FEATURES WOULD SUPPORT OUR DRY FORECAST FOR TUE/WED...SO CONTINUED WITH LESS THAN 20% POPS THOSE PERIODS. OTHERWISE...OUR PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS FOLLOW: FCSTID = 10 CHA 69 83 69 84 / 80 70 50 60 TYS 68 82 68 82 / 70 70 50 60 TRI 66 81 65 80 / 60 70 50 40 OQT 68 82 68 83 / 70 70 50 60 .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. TG/TH ********************************************************************* MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE) 1008 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2003 STARTING OUT THIS MORNING WITH VERY MUCH LESS CONVECTION IN AND UPSTREAM OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO MIXING/COOLING FROM YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION... THUS SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY IS INDICATED (AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM MODIFIED 12Z BNA SOUNDING). RUC MODEL INDICATED BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST THETA-E ACROSS SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY NOTED ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG AN OLD SURFACE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY? CURRENT ZONES HAVE 50-60% POPS FOR TODAY AND THIS LOOKS FINE FOR NOW ...AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LIKELY WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD TODAY. TEMP FORECAST WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS AND THIS ALSO LOOKS GIVEN SOME EARLY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. DON'T PLAN ON A MORNING UPDATE AT THIS POINT. TG ********************************************************************* EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION 315 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2003 UPR SHORT WAVE TROUGH FLATTENS AND MOVES NE TO N OF MRX CWA TODAY. A SECOND SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AREA FM SW ON FRI. A THIRD SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AREA ON SAT PROGGED TO GET ABSORBED IN WEAKNESS LEFT FROM FRIDAYS TROUGH. OVERALL MRX CWA REMAINS ON EAST SIDE OF TROUGHS IN SW LAYER FLOW. SFC LOW MOVES ENE THROUGH OH RVR VLY TDY. LAGGING BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RETREATS SOMEWHAT FM SE U.S. PCPN PROBABILITIES BASED ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WILL LIKELY NEED SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS PENDING MESO-SCALE CHANGES. HIGH LAYER RH CONTINUES. BELIEVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SW WILL REGENERATE LATER THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED...SO WILL GO ABOVE SUB CLIMO MOS GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE DIURNAL EFFECTS AND WITH EXPECTED NE STORM MOTIONS WENT NEAR OR ABOVE RELATIVELY HIGH MOS POPS TDY. LATE TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WNW FAVORING SOUTHERN AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH HIGH DP'S IN WARM AIRMASS GETTING OCCASIONALLY COOLED BY CONVECTION SO CCF NUMBERS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. FRI...NOT QUITE AS WARM WITH DEEPER CLOUD COVER HOWEVER GOOD LIFT PROVIDED IN AFTN AS SHORT WAVE SLIDES IN. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE FROM SW FRI EVE/SAT MORN. SAT SIMILAR TO FRI. CSTID = 17 CHA 83 65 82 67 / 80 60 70 30 TYS 84 66 82 67 / 60 50 70 40 TRI 83 64 80 65 / 60 40 70 40 OQT 85 65 83 67 / 60 50 70 40 SON ********************************************************************* EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE 900 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2003 QUICK NOTE TO EXPLAIN UPDATE OF ZONES COMING OUT SHORTLY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRES AT 9 PM EDT (8 PM CDT). WILL REMOVE WATCH HEADLINES FOR EACH ZONE, BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF "SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE" FOR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. OTHERWISE, WILL LEAVE POPS AND TEMPS ALONE. MIGHT BE A FEW WORDING TWEAKS FOR "SCATTERED" VS "CHANCE" OVERNIGHT. BB ********************************************************************* AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION 250 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2003 TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONVECTION FIRING IN BROAD INSTABILITY FIELD OVER EAST TN. SFC THETA E RIDGE STRENGTHENING SINCE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER SRN APPS CAUSING SOME ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO TN VALLEY... INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS. COLD POOL ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE HAVE BEEN TWO LEGS OF THE THREE LEGGED TABLE WITH ONLY LOW LEVEL LIFT MISSING. HOWEVER...AS SOME SUN CREEPED IN AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM NEARBY COLLAPSING STORMS ENTERS THE AREA...THIS WILL ADD THE THIRD LEG. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 50 MOST AREAS WITH 40S ALONG NC BORDER ZONES FOR TONIGHT AS OUTFLOWS CONTINUE. WHILE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LESSEN AS THE SUN DROPS...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL GROW OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE GROWS AND CELLS TRAIN ALONG BOUNDARIES. STILL IN WARM SECTOR OF FRONTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...BUT WITH COOL FRONT APPROACHING FROM WEST...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE (50) POPS IN. EXPECT SOME LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES TOO...BUT SUN WILL BE LIMITED WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER. DON'T EXPECT SEVERE...BUT SOME SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AGAIN. TEMPS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE...EXCEPT HAVE UPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED AND WINDS TO REMAIN UP. THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...ETA/MESO-ETA MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL WEAKER SHORTWAVE FEATURE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. GFS MODEL WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT GIVEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PLUS OROGRAPHICS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD EQUAL GOOD COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. DID NOT WANT TO UNDERCUT THE VERY HIGH MOS POPS FOR 3RD AND 4TH PERIODS VERY MUCH...BUT HAD TO COLLABORATE WITH EASTERN CHAT NEIGHBORS AND GO WITH POPS OF 10% TO 20% BELOW MOS BLEND. LITTLE CHANGES MADE FOR NOW BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAD TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PRETTY MUCH RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. DECISION WAS MADE TO UNDERCUT MRF MOS AND HPC POPS FOR TUE AND WED...BASED ON UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SE STATES AND WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN PLAINS. FELT THAT ANY CONVECTION TUE/WED WOULD APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED MAINLY DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 20% COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...SEVERE TSTM WATCH #510 REMAINS IN EFFECT AT FORECAST TIME ...SO ZONES WILL BE GROUPED TO ACCOMODATE WATCH. PRELIMINARY TEMPS AND POPS FOLLOW: FCSTID = 39 CHA 70 84 69 85 / 50 50 60 60 TYS 68 83 67 84 / 40 50 60 50 TRI 65 81 65 82 / 40 50 60 50 OQT 69 83 66 84 / 50 50 60 50 BB/TG ********************************************************************* $$ tn COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 300 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT)...BEGINNING TO SEE THE START OF SOME CONVECTION IN THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DRY LINE...BUT IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE ATTM. W/ LITTLE UPR SUPPORT TONIGHT... MARGINAL MOISTURE DEPT AND WARM H7 TEMPS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ANYTHING WILL REACH THE WRN OR NRN ZONES AND WILL ONLY SHOW 10 POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUCH AN OCCURRENCE. WINDS STAYING UP MEANS ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR FOR FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WRN TX AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE GOMEX PROVIDE BREEZY AFTNS AND EVENINGS INLAND. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED FRI...ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT HIGHS OF 100-104 IN WRN ZONES. A STRONG S/WV (CURRENTLY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS APPROACHING CA) WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN/CEN TX FI NIGHT W/ THE TAIL END OF THE VORT MVG NEAR THE COASTAL BEND LATE AS A WEAK UPR JET PUSHES OVHD. EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT FRI EVENING ACROSS WEST TX AND NE MEXICO DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. STEERING FLOW/THICKNESS PATTERN SUGGEST MCS MVMT TO THE SE TOWARDS THE CWA. HOWEVER...MID LVL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT MOISTURE DEPTH AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE SE PROPAGATION OF ANY MCS THAT FORMS. STILL...GIVEN THE DECENT UPR DYNAMICS NR THE REGION AND FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW BELIEVE CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR THE WRN AND NRN ZONES WITH SLT CHC ALONG THE COAST. HAVE NOTED SPC HAS INCLUDED THE REGION IN A SLT RISK AREA AND WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN UPCOMING SHIFTS...POSSIBLY RAISING POPS FURTHER IF NEC. MARINE...SCA SEEMS LIKE A NO-BRAINER TONIGHT AS MANY COASTAL OBS ARE 20 TO 25 KNOTS CURRENTLY AND EXPECT THE NOCTURNAL MAX PERIOD TO KICK IN AS USUAL TONIGHT WITH WINDS LIKELY SUSTAINED NR 25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD AT BOB HALL AND PTAT2. WINDS MAY DIP BELOW SCA FOR A PERIOD ON FRI...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. LONG-TERM (SAT THROUGH THU)...MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH MOVES INTO AREA BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AND IF NOT WHETHER BOUNDARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE SOMETHING DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF CONVECTION/MCS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN PART OF WHICH MAY DEPEND ON WHAT TRANSPIRES ON OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT QUESTION IS HOW FAST UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. ETA/UKMET MORE TRANSIENT THAN AVN/MRF AND IF THE FORMER VERIFIES COULD SEE PRECIP END BY MONDAY NIGHT. IF LATTER IS CORRECT...CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL LINGER TIL AS LATE AS MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN A BIT MORE TOWARD THE ETA SOLUTION BUT WILL NOT REMOVE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STILL BELIEVE BEST SHOT OF RAIN WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST (IF IT DOES SO AS RAPIDLY AS ETA SUGGESTS). STILL WILL ONLY PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND LOW CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS WHICH HAVE BEEN RATHER WARM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL ALSO STILL PLAY A DRIER AND THUS A TAD COOLER TEMPS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY AND MAKE THURSDAY DRY BASED ON FASTER MOVEMENT OF UPPER SYSTEM. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS: CRP BB 080/093 079/093 075 --223 VCT BB 078/094 077/093 073 11334 LRD BB 079/103 079/101 075 1-324 .CRP...SCA BAYS AND WATERWAYS AND OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR ...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON 88/MJG...SHORT-TERM 86/GW....LONG-TERM tx COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 930 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003 SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE W/ THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NRN GOMEX HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PGRAD ALONG THE TX COAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A 35 KT SRLY LLJ OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND FIRST THOUGHTS WERE TO GO WINDY FOR THE COASTAL BEND TODAY. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A S/WV PASSING THROUGH NRN TX ATTM...W/ THE NEXT S/WV STILL OVER AZ SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY AND MESO ETA CONCURS. STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH PGRAD TO INDUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...W/ THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCING WINDS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IN THE BAYS AND OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY AGAIN TODAY WILL BE HE HEAT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S MOST ZONES W/ 100 DEGREE READINGS FROM ALI WESTWARD...WHILE DEWPOINTS STAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEST AND UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AS IS...ALTHOUGH I HAVE MY DOUBTS ERN AREAS WILL REACH 110 HEAT INDEX AS SRLY FLOW HOLDS TEMPS DOWN A TAD (BUT STILL NEAR 93 DEGREES VCT). W/ SRLY FLOW AREAS NW OF HIGHWAY 77 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 181 SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING 110 DEGREE HEAT INDICES W/ NQI AND ALI LIKELY COMING IN W/ THE HIGHEST READINGS AREA WIDE. FOR THE UPDATE... STRONG SRLY FLOW WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZED SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY... LEAVING A LACK OF ANY BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...PER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION OF UPR FEATURES...THERE IS NO DYNAMICAL FORCING TO SPARK ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN. THE ONLY HOPE OF ANY PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS... BUT THE RADAR IS LOOKING PRETTY BLEAK AND THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR THOSE (EARLY MORNING) HAS ALREADY PASSED. THAT BEING SAID...WILL REMOVE POPS ALL TOGETHER FROM THE FORECAST TODAY...LEAVING THE SLT CHC FOR TONIGHT IN THE WEST IN CASE ANY DRY LINE STORMS IN MEXICO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION. ONLY OTHER UPDATE WILL BE TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPS TO SHOW SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS IN THE ALI GROUP. .CRP...SCA BAYS AND WATERWAYS AND OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR. ...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZONES. 88/MJG...SHORT-TERM 86/GW....LONG-TERM tx SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 330 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2003 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...(TODAY/TONIGHT). ...CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL... MODEL QPF PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS, BOTH ETA AND GFS, HAVING DIFFICULTY LAST FEW RUNS. EVEN 00Z ETA/AVN INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN OFF. MESO-ETA IS REALLY OVER FORECASTING THE 3 HOURLY PRECIP AMOUNTS ON THE PLAINS THIS MORNING, AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP IS BAD AS WELL. SUFFICE IT TO SAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW AS ACKNOWLEDGED IN NCEP DISCUSSIONS THIS MORNING. SO, WILL SHOOT FROM THE HIP. IN GENERAL, WE SHOULD BE IN FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. TODAY LOOKS A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY, WITH A HIGH CAPE/LOW CIN ENVIRONMENT. SO, SHOULD SEE LOTS OF EARLY TOWERS AROUND LIKE YESTERDAY, VENTING CAPE EARLY, AND, THUSLY, HOLDING DOWN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE. SHEAR LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, SO THIS MAY TEND TO COMPENSATE FOR THE EARLY VENTING AND HELP TO "SPIN UP" A FEW SEVERE STORMS ANYWAY. AGAIN, THE MAIN THREATS WOULD APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL (TO AROUND 1 INCH) AND STRONG WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS STILL HANGING IN THERE BETWEEN .75 AND 1.00 INCHES OVER THE EAST (LESS TO THE WEST). WITH SOMEWHAT INCREASED STEERING FLOW TODAY, STORMS MAY TEND TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER, SO THIS MAY TEND TO DIMINISH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SOMEWHAT. STILL SOME LIGHTWEIGHT CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF STRETCHING DEFORMATION, BETWEEN WEEK DISTURBANCES TO THE EAST AND TO THE WEST OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS THAT LIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE RUC80 INDICATES THE TOTAL DEFORMATION ALONG THIS AXIS PEAKED AROUND 200 AM AND IS STARTING TO DECREASE NOW. HOWEVER, MAY STILL SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, SO MAY END UP KEEPING SOME ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD LINGER LATER THAN USUAL AGAIN TONIGHT, AT LEAST IN ISOLATED FASHION, LIKE IT IS NOW. ~LW LONG TERM DISCUSSION...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY). RELATIVELY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IN THE OFFING AS UPPER PERTURBATIONS...ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW BATTLE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE TO GAIN CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. INITIALLY DURING SATURDAY UPPER RIDGE OVER CWFA...HOWEVER SOME UPSLOPE FLOW AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED POPS TO OCCUR. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON GRADUAL CLIMB SATURDAY AS COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES PREVIOUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY...UPPER HIGH DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS... HOWEVER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS PROJECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND COMBINE WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW TO WARRANT AT LEAST ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS ONCE AGAIN. ON MONDAY...SOME WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROJECTED ALONG WITH SOME MINOR COOLING. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTINUES ON THE UPWARD TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW...THEREFORE WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO CRUISE ACROSS REGION AND THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW AND AN EVEN MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROFILE PROMPTS ME TO PAINT GRIDS/ZONES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS. TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN VALUES NOTED ON MONDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REACH ITS ZENITH ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE FLOW AS UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN IT'S PRESENCE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND THE MAJORITY OF NEW MEXICO. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM EXPECTED ON THIS DAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS. BY NEXT THURSDAY...IT APPEARS THAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A SOLID MOVE INTO CWFA...HOWEVER ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW PROMPTS ME TO CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED POPS OVER THE CWFA. EVEN THOUGH IT IS JUST OUTSIDE MY LONG TERM WINDOW...IT DOES APPEAR THAT UPPER RIDGE TAKES CONTROL OF REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...(DAYS 9-10) WHICH MEANS THAT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH 100F OVER THE PLAINS MAY BE IN THE OFFING. TIME WILL TELL. JK .PUB...NONE. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 445 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN AND TSRA POTENTIAL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SPLIT FLOW ACRS NOAM WITH THE WRN LAKES UNDER INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM FLOW IN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPLIFIED PATTERN. MAIN UPSTREAM SHRTWV EXTENDED FROM FAR WRN ONTARIO INTO NW MN. AT THE SFC...A WEAK TROF ALSO EXTENDED FROM WRN ONTARIO INTO CNTRL MN. COMBINATION OF THE SHRTWV AND FRONT SUPPORTED ONLY WEAK ISOLD -SHRA FROM NE INTO N CNTRL MN. LIGHTNING DETECTION HAS NOT SHOWN ANY ACTIVITY UPSTREAM SINCE BEFORE 04Z. AN ISOLD TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER SE MN. WEAK WAA AND 300-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCT-BKN CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF UPR MI. DEWPOINTS OVER THE REGION RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S F OVER UPR MI TO AROUND 60 F OVER WRN WI AND SE MN. TODAY...WHILE BULK OF SHRTWV ENERGY AND QG FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF UPR MI AND ONLY BRUSH UPR MI COMBINATION OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND SFC-850 THETA-E RDG AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF AND UPR LVL DIV WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF 65 KT H25 JET MAY BE ABLE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD PCPN OVER UPR MI TODAY. GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS...EXPECT ONLY ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE WEST. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH BKN CLOUDS...SFC HEATING WILL PROVIDE SFC INSTABILITY OVER S CNTRL UPR MI WITH CAPE VALUES FROM AROUND 500-1000 J/KG WITH SFC TEMP OF 75 AND DEWPOINTS FROM 57-61 F. ALTHOUGH ETA FCST SNDGS DEPICT UNFAVORABLE 700-600 INVERSION...LIMITED UPR LVL SUPPORT ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROF AND ALONG LK BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP INITIATE SOME TSRA. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK 0-3KM WIND SHEAR ANY TSRA SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL...GIVEN FAVORABLE WET-BULB ZERO HGTS NEAR 9K FT. TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SE HLF OF UPR MI SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING. OTHERWISE...QVECTOR DIV / SUBSIDENCE AND DRY ADVECTION TAKE OVER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV AS SFC RDG BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS FCST TO DROP TO AROUND 50 F...MIN TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE AS IN THE GOING FCST. SATURDAY...MID LVL SHRTWV RDG PROGRESSES TOWARD THE WRN LAKES AND SFC RDG BUILDS INTO THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY NRLY WINDS. LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT WILL ALSO REINFORCE GRADIENT FLOW AND PUSH COOL LK SUPERIOR AIR WELL INLAND OVER THE NORTH. SO...HAVE SHADED TEMPS AOB GUIDANCE WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER READINGS NEAR THE SHORE. SUN INTO MON...ETA AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING MID LVL RDG FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE MDLS SUGGEST PCPN WITH SHRTWVS ALONG WITH PERIPHERY OF THE RDG MAY EDGE AS CLOSE AS NE MN BY MON...EXPECT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF UPR MI GIVEN POSITION OF SFC FRONT AND TRACK OF WEAK SHRTWVS WELL TO THE NORTH. .MQT...NONE. JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 420 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003 OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND AS THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LOW CENTER CLOSES OVER OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE WILL NOT REFLECT MUCH IN PRECIPITATION PATTERN AS SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST DATA TRENDS/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT STRONGER FORCING WILL SET UP OVER NRN TX/OK WHERE STRONG THETAE ADVECTION IN EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD SUPPORT MCS DEVELOPMENT. AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS STRUGGLING TO RECOVER FROM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY ANALYSIS IS A BIT COMPLICATED...BUT FEATURES A DISTINCT GULF COASTAL BOUNDARY REINFORCED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM A SERIES OF MCS. EXPECT BETTER CONVECTIVE PRECIP CHANCES TO BE ALONG AND S OF HWY 84 TODAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND WITH APPROACH OF DYING MCS/MCV APPROACHING FROM NW THIS MORNING. BIG QUESTION TONIGHT REGARDS EVOLUTION OF MCSS THAT DEVELOP OVER SRN PLAINS. COULD SEE ACTIVE WEATHER DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG AND W OF MS RIVER. MODELS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO LOWER MS VALLEY REGION SATURDAY SO WILL RAISE POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN HALF. SAME STORY IN REGARD TO SVR WX/HVY RAIN POTENTIAL...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PROMOTE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PRECIP WATER VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES AND VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT HVY RAIN PRODUCTION IN TSTMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SEEN IN NEW LONGER RANGE GFS AND WILL LEAVE WET EXTENDED FORECAST IN TACT AS TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND. .JAN... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. MS...NONE. 43 $$ ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 130 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003 FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS AND OVERALL TRENDS THRU THE WEEKEND. SYNOPSIS... LATEST REGIONAL RADAR/SATELLITE AND PROFILERS INDICATED MAIN CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW AND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND MOVING SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED NEAR THIS AREA SINCE 10 PM ...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM TRENDS/MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAIN CIRCULATION WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST AND HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THRU THE EARLY EVENING. AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY TONIGHT...WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TONIGHT. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE RUC/ETA CONVECTIVE TRENDS THRU TONIGHT. EXTENDED... THOUGHT OF DROPPING CHANCES OF RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH TOTALLY DROPPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS BOTH THE AVN/ETA HAVE SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH SURFACE MOISTURE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA (AFTERNOON/EVENING DRIVEN CONVECTION). HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN AND SURFACE FEATURES. THEREFORE LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEK. AVIATION...ONLY CONCERNS WILL BE WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER FLYING WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND... .SGF... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ JLT mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 319 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 .PUBLIC... ONCE AGAIN...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND EVIDENCE OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS TO START THE DAY OFF AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME EARLY CONVECTION ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AS A STALLED BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE REGION WHERE THE RUC MODEL SHOWS GOOD SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 15Z. FOR LATER TODAY...DEPENDANT ON HOW MUCH INSOLATION OCCURS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TSTMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLD SVR WIND/HAIL...ESPECIALLY W OF I-95. WIND FIELDS FROM H8 TO H7 ARE FCST TO BE AT LEAST 10 KT STRONGER TDA WITH HIGH WET BULB ZEROS FORECAST. SAT AND SUN...BLYR THRU H7 FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY WITH TIME AND EXPECT A BIT OF A DECREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE BY SUNDAY...ALSO MORE DIURNAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WILL CARRY 50 PCNT POPS SAT...TAPERED TO 30 PCNT ON SUN. MON AND TUE...IT IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT VIA THE GFS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL WEDGE INTO THE CWFA. WHETHER THE PUSH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY DRIVE THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO FAR S GEORGIA AND N FLORIDA BY LATE TUE SEEMS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE ALIGNMENT OF THE PARENT HIGH PRES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WED AND THU...DOUBT THE BULK OF THE DRY AIR MASS OVER THE MID ATLC REGION MAKES IT TO CENTRAL AND SRN SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE 00Z WED PROG FROM THE GFS INDICATES ONSHORE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND OVER- RUNNING DEVELOPING. DO NOT PLAN TO ALTER OUR LATTER PERIODS WITH CONFIDENCE RUNNING LOW. .MARINE... LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING FCST...WITH ATLC RIDGE OVER OR JUST S OF THE FCST AREA THRU THE WEEKEND. STILL APPEARS THAT A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING MON AND/OR TUE...BUT WILL LIFT BACK N THEREAFTER. WINDS TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 4 OR 5 FT THRU SAT...WITH A SLGT DECREASE IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SUN AND EARLY MON AS LEE TROF DEVELOPS AND GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT. SLGT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN LATE MON OR TUE WITH FRONT. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WITH LACK OF ONSHORE FETCH DO NO ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A PROBLEM REGARDING ANY COASTAL FLOODING. .CHS... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. $$ 24/4 sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 344 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003 APPROACHING FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE COUPLED WITH 90 KT 25H JET OVER THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS ARE ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED MOIST ASCENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLES HAVE A HISTORY OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ARE DEVELOPING INTO AN MCS TYPE CLUSTER. MAX HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ONE INCH PER 88D ESTIMATES. THESE STORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHER STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES SHOULD TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION STILL LOOKING QUITE LIKELY. LATEST RUC NOW SHOWS 8H DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS 16 CELSIUS. WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOST LIKELY. AIRMASS PROGED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AFTER STRATUS BURNS OFF AROUND MID MORNING. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME SEVERE. LATER PERIODS LOOK GOOD AND NO CHANGES PLANNED. FCSTID = SLATTERY AMARILLO 82 61 85 60 / 30 30 20 20 BEAVER 83 65 82 59 / 70 70 20 20 BOISE CITY 78 61 81 55 / 70 70 20 20 BORGER 82 64 86 60 / 60 60 20 20 BOYS RANCH 84 63 88 59 / 30 30 20 20 CANYON 84 62 85 61 / 30 30 20 20 CLARENDON 88 63 81 61 / 40 40 20 20 DALHART 80 61 86 57 / 70 70 20 20 GUYMON 80 62 84 59 / 70 70 20 20 HEREFORD 86 60 86 61 / 30 20 20 20 LIPSCOMB 84 63 81 59 / 60 60 20 20 PAMPA 82 62 81 60 / 60 60 20 20 SHAMROCK 87 64 81 61 / 60 60 20 20 WELLINGTON 90 65 83 63 / 70 70 20 20 .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 930 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2003 AT 1530Z LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE MOSAIC SHOWING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. PRECIPITATION FALLING IN LATEST RUC 700 DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WHERE VALUES ARE GENERALLY GREATER THEN ZERO AS WELL AS BETTER HANDLE ON MID LEVEL LIFT. SO FOR THE UPDATE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE RUC GIVEN ITS ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL WITH SOME GRASP OF THE QPF OUTPUT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHERS. IT ALSO HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE EAST...SOUTHERN THIRD...AND CHEYENNE/KIT CARSON COUNTIES OF COLORADO WHERE LIFT IS ENHANCED AHEAD OF ABOVE MENTIONED CIRCULATIONS. WILL GO ISOLATED ELSEWHERE WHERE MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT LESS AND LESS FAVORABLE LIFT. BY LATE IN THE DAY SUBSIDENCE GENERALLY TAKES HOLD SO PRECIP MAY BE HARD TO FIND. TWEAKED WINDS ALSO TOWARD RUC GUIDANCE. HAVE LEFT TEMPS AS IS FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ADJUST GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUDS/PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. .GLD...NONE. $$ DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1051 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 .UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD OVER SOUTHERN MAINE. RUC AND ETA MOVES CLOUD COVER INTO CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH MORE SUNSHINE TODAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN ZONES TO WARM UP TO MID 70S AND EXPECT NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO REACH LOWER 70S WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING INFLUENCE. WILL UPDATE ZONES ACCORDINGLY. .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF AREA. A SECOND LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MOST OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY. DISCUSSION... ETA/GFS GENERALLY SIMILAR IN TRENDS NEXT FEW DAYS THO AVN FASTER W/ BRINGING PRECIP NE ACROSS OUR CWA LATER TONIGHT AND SAT. THE GFS TIMING IS PREFERRED ATTM AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE A BIT BETTER HANDLE ON THE PRECIP OCCURRING THRU 6Z ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NYS... MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE INCLUDE INTRODUCING PRECIP EARLIER ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT AND RAISING POPS ACCORDINGLY. BEST PRECIP SHIELD LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE INTO NRN AREAS ON SAT AND LINGER INTO SAT NIGHT WHILE SRN AREAS GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY ENVIRONMENT. SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA SUN...WITH HIGHEST POPS N AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. ETA/GFS ALL SUGGEST KEEPING CHANCE SHOWERS GOING UP N INTO SUN NIGHT THEN SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON MON. LOWERED FCST HIGHS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CWA SAT/SUN WITH FEW IF ANY AREAS LIKELY TO SEE 60F ON SAT... MARINE...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT/SAT AS LOW MOVES TOWARD AND THEN THROUGH GULF OF MAINE. AVIATION...MOIST SERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM THE SW TO NE LATER TONIGHT AND SAT... EXPECT VFR CONDS ALL TAFS SITES THRU TODAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ACROSS SRN AREAS AND SPREAD SLOWLY NE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MVFR CONDS WILL DEVELOP SRN AREAS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR BY AM. MVFR CONDS WILL DEVELOP NRN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT/SAT AM W/ ALL SITES EXPECTING WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS MUCH OF SAT... .CAR...SCA TONIGHT. CALDERON me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1115 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 ...WILL LOWER HIGHS SINCE CLOUDS ARE NOT DISSIPATING... WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT THE ETA AND RUC 12Z GUIDANCE AND ALSO LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW IT IS CLEAR THE CLOUDS ARE NOT GOING AWAY ANY TIME SOON. THE BREAK IN THE CLOUDS OVER NW LOWER COULD EXPAND SOUTH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE BUT EVEN IF IT DID THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING BY US TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON CLOUDS HOLDING ON... I WILL LOWER HIGHS INLAND TO 65 TO 70. LOOKING AT SOUNDING TOOLS... THERE IS INSTABILITY TO TAP AND THERE IS THE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH PLUS THERE IS A VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT THE RUC TAKES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE COULD GET TO 70F BETWEEN GRR AND LAN... THERE WOULD BE OVER 2000 J/KG. EVEN WITH 68 WE COULD GET 800 J/KG FROM THE MOST UNSTABLE LAYER. EVEN SO...I BELIEVE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL STAY THERE (TO OUR SOUTH). THAT LEAVES LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE FOR OUR LIFT MECHANISM. SO... IT COULD HAPPEN...THUS I WILL LEAVE THE LOW CHC POP IN. .GRR...NONE. WDM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1020 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 12Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANLSYS SHOW FAIRLY ZONAL SPLIT FLOW ACRS NAMERICA. NRN BRANCH CENTERED ACRS SRN CAN...WITH FAIRLY STRG SHRTWV MOVG E ACRS NW ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED SFC TROF HAS MOVD INTO WRN LK SUP...BUT WSHFT ACRS BNDRY IS RATHER WEAK. SOME ISOLD -SHRA HAVE DVLPD IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROF OVR WRN CWA...BUT SHARP MID LVL INVRN BTWN H75-8 AS DEPICTED ON 12Z GRB SDNG ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY DEPARTING HUDSON BAY HI AND LACK OF ANY SFC HTG SO FAR HAVE LIMITED SHRA COVG/INTENSITY DESPITE SFC DWPTS WELL INTO THE 50S NR 60 OVR THE UPR GRT LKS. SRN BRANCH OF FLOW OVR THE SRN TIER CONUS...AND THE ONLY IMPACT OF THIS FLOW ON CWA IS TO ROB ANY DEEP MSTR FM ADVCTG N TO SUPPLY THE NRN BRANCH WITH MORE WATER. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY REVOLVE ARND SHRA/TSRA CHCS. 09Z RUC/06Z ETA SHOW ONTARIO SHRTWV PUSHING DUE E TDAY...WITH BEST HGT FALLS/DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING N OF CWA. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF SUPPORTING 70 KT H3 JET MAX ON SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV WITH WEAK HGT FALLS AND SOME COOLING IN THE MID TROP ASSOCIATED WITH H7-5 THERMAL TROF UPSTREAM. WEAK SFC TROFFING IN COMMA TAIL OF SHRTWV PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CNTRL ZNS DURG THE AFTN BEFORE WASHING OUT UNDER H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC LATER IN THE DAY IN WAKE OF SHRTWV AXIS PASSAGE. LGT WND FIELDS AND SFC HTG INLAND WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID TROP/JUST PTCHY CLDS WL ALLOW FOR LK BREEZES TO DVLP ALG ALL THE SHORELINES. MAX TEMPS YDAY/12Z GRB SDNG THIS MRNG SUG MAX TEMPS INLAND AWAY FM LK COOLING WL BE IN THE UPR 70S. 00Z RUN OF THE WRF MODEL SHOWS ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ALG WEAK CNVGC LINE ACRS THE CNTRL ZNS THIS AFTN AND MIGRATING SLOWLY E AND INTENSIFYING A BIT IN COVG/INTENSITY AS ACTIVITY HITS LK BREEZE CNVGC OVR ESPECIALLY THE SE ZNS BY LATE AFTN...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RUC/ETA FCST QPF/MSTR CNVGC IN THE SAME AREAS. WORST CASE MODIFIED 12Z GRB SDNG FOR MAX TEMP OF 80/DWPT 60 AND SOME MID LVL COOLING/ EROSION OF INVRN ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF SHRTWV AXIS INDICATE CAPE ARND 900 J/KG AT 21Z FOR SE CWA. ALTHOUGH WBZ HGT ARND 9K FT IDEAL FOR HAIL...WEAK LLVL WND FIELDS/SHEAR/GENERALLY ACYC H85 FLOW AND STRENGTH OF INVRN THIS MRNG SUG THREAT OF ORGANIZED TSRA/SVR TSRA MINIMAL. MORE EMPHATIC DRYING/LACK OF LLVL MSTR CNVGC AND EARLY ARRIVAL OF MORE NEGATIVE MID LVL DYNAMICS SUG THREAT OF SHRA OVR THE WRN ZNS WL BE GONE ONCE SFC TROF PASSES EARLY IN THE AFTN. IN GENERAL...GOING FCST APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON XPCTD SCENARIO AND NEEDS LTL MODIFICATION. KC AFDMQT FM MIDNGT SHIFT FOR LATER PDS... TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SE HLF OF UPR MI SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING. OTHERWISE...QVECTOR DIV / SUBSIDENCE AND DRY ADVECTION TAKE OVER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV AS SFC RDG BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS FCST TO DROP TO AROUND 50 F...MIN TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE AS IN THE GOING FCST. SATURDAY...MID LVL SHRTWV RDG PROGRESSES TOWARD THE WRN LAKES AND SFC RDG BUILDS INTO THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY NRLY WINDS. LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT WILL ALSO REINFORCE GRADIENT FLOW AND PUSH COOL LK SUPERIOR AIR WELL INLAND OVER THE NORTH. SO...HAVE SHADED TEMPS AOB GUIDANCE WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER READINGS NEAR THE SHORE. SUN INTO MON...ETA AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING MID LVL RDG FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE MDLS SUGGEST PCPN WITH SHRTWVS ALONG WITH PERIPHERY OF THE RDG MAY EDGE AS CLOSE AS NE MN BY MON...EXPECT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF UPR MI GIVEN POSITION OF SFC FRONT AND TRACK OF WEAK SHRTWVS WELL TO THE NORTH. JLB .MQT...NONE. mi NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 930 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2003 .SHORT TERM... NOT PLANNING ON ANY UPDATES THIS MORNING AS CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKING ABOUT THE WAY I WANT IT TO. SURFACE TROF SET UP OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA AT PRESENT WHICH WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HIGH STILL POKING INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FROM ITS CENTER IN NORTH DAKOTA. MORNING GLASGOW SOUNDING NOT EXACTLY A HARBINGER OF DOOM...SO SEE APPARENT NEED TO GET TOO BENT OUT OF SHAPE AT THE MOMENT. MORNING ETA AND RUC INDICATING CURRENT FORECAST WELL IN LINE...WITH LIONS SHARE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING WEST ACROSS GREAT FALLS AREA...AND NORTH INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. WILL DO A 19Z RUN TODAY TO SEE HOW ATMOSPHERE IS DOING AT THAT TIME...AND TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INPUT INTO THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. VALONE SURFACE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN GOING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN ALL AREAS AND IN THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN TODAY. SW FLOW ALOFT FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. WILL ADD A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUN AFTERNOON TO LINE UP WITH SURROUNDING FORECASTS. FORRESTER .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF AK TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. ENERGY WHICH ROTATES OUT OF THE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE BC COAST SUNDAY EVENING TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE NE PACIFIC. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE AN EARLY SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF CONVECTION AFTER MONDAY. GFS LOOKS TO BE SUFFERING A CASE OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT GENERATES NEARLY AN INCH OF QPF IN NORTHEAST MT. INTERESTING THOU THAT IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN DOING SUCH... SO CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING. AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO EASTERN MT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH ONLY SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND COULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. WOULD FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE EXTENDING POPS FURTHER WEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND THAT WAS THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGE THAT WAS MADE IN THE GRIDS. THIS LOOKS TO FIT WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WHICH WILL DRY US OUT. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES TO THE PACIFIC COAST HELPING TO INDUCE THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE AT BRINGING THE UPPER TROUGH INLAND WITH A SFC TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL MT THURSDAY. WILL LEAN WITH THE GFS AS THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A SLOWER PROGRESSION. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED LATE DAY OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...BUT NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE OR CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE NEW 00Z GFS SHOWS A DIFFERENT SOLUTION AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A CUT-OFF DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BRINGING A SFC FRONT THROUGH EASTERN MT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY FEEL BETTER AT THIS JUNCTURE MAINTAINING THE ONGOING DRY FORECAST. CB KGGW BTT /084 057/079 055/081 7904303 TEBB 056/080 052/081 052/083 052/084 056/ 92330000000 KGDV BTT /083 057/079 054/082 7903303 TEBB 057/079 054/081 052/083 054/084 054/ 92333000000 .GGW...NONE. $$ mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 947 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR YYZ ON THE LATEST ANALYSIS WITH WARM FRONT TRAILING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. COLD FRONT EXTENDED OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR STL. LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SURFACES WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY. BOTH THE RUC AND THE 00Z ETA SHOW THE 700MB AND 850MB THETA-E RIDGES LOCATED FROM JUST EAST OF ROCHESTER DUE SOUTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GOOD LIFT ON THE 700MB AND 850MB PLAN VIEWS ALSO FORECAST...AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG UPPER WAVE FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...MODEL DATA AND CURRENT RADAR INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND PLAN TO FORECAST THIS ACCORDINGLY ESPECIALLY FOR THE BUF AND IAG AREAS. RUC IN PARTICULAR REALLY INCREASES THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT. SPC RAISED NORTH THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE...AND LOOKING AT THE DYNAMICS ALONE...GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE... PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THE LOW...SEVERE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY PROGS ARE RELATIVELY LOW...LIS OF 0 TO -2C DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA AND RUC DO NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...AND RH FIELDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FAIRLY SATURATED DURING THE DAY AND ANY CLEARING SHOULD BE FLEETING. COORDINATED WITH CTP...AND AGREE THAT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS LIES FARTHER SOUTH INTO PA. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF CLEARING IS QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. MOST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SHORT-TERM LAMP...SHOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ETA MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM. PLAN TO HAVE UPDATE OUT BY 1015 AM. .BUF...NONE. $$ DJF ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1104 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 SATELLITE WV SHOWING S/W CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN KY & TN DOWN INTO AL MOVING EAST. ALONG THE FEATURES SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SH AND ISO TS HAS FIRED UP AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AND ATMOS DESTABILIZES. MODIFIED MESOETA SOUNDING YIELDS CAPES EAST OF THE MTNS IN THE 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE WITH AROUND 1K OVER THE MTNS. RUC40 DID A DECENT JOB FOR YESTERDAY CONVECTION AND FOR THIS AFTERNOON PAINTS IN GOOD COVERAGE. WILL AGAIN EXPECT SH/TS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE S/W AND SLIDE E/NE ACROSS THE CWA. WITH WARM RIDGING ALOFT AND PW EXCEEDING 1.5" WOULD EXPECT PRIMARY THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND WET MICROBURST...WILL FRESHEN GOING SPS. WILL LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE OF CLICKS DUE TO MORNING CLOUDS AND ON COMING PRECIP...TEMPS CLOSER TO THE FLP. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS AS COVERAGE WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAY...WITH MORE SPREADING NW INTO THE MTNS. AND WILL ALSO MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO THE SKY AND WIND GRIDS AS WELL. FCSTID = 16 GSP 83 69 87 68 / 60 40 50 50 AND 83 69 88 69 / 60 40 50 50 CLT 84 70 88 68 / 60 40 50 50 HKY 80 68 85 66 / 60 40 50 50 AVL 79 64 81 63 / 60 40 50 50 .GSP... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. $$ NED sc COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1015 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003 LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEAR THE NRN GOMEX WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVR WEST TEXAS. W/ 35 KNOTS AT 900 FT ON THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LOOKING IN THE MID/UPR LVLS...WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG S/WV APPROACHING WRN TEXAS W/ A 70KT JET STREAK SPREADING ACROSS WRN/CEN TEXAS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS IS ALREADY PRODUCING STRONG CONVECTION IN THE DRT VCNTY. FOR THE UPDATE...WILL REMOVE POPS FROM THE FORECAST IN THE FIRST PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR FEATURES WILL NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WHEN WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR AN MCS MVG TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NW AS STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS CEN TX. WILL BUMP THE WINDS UP IN THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREAS TO 20-25 MPH BASED OF LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE WHICH WILL REQUIRE WINDY WORDING. BREEZY SHOULD SUFFICE ELSEWHERE. MARGINAL HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS OK IN THE WRN ZONES. STILL THINK THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL HAVE TROUBLE VERIFYING IN THE ERN ZONES IN STRONG SRLY FLOW...BUT WILL LEAVE AS IS. MARINE...SCA ALL ZONES LOOKS FINE. .CRP...SCA BAYS AND WATERWAYS AND OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR ...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZONES EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON 88/MJG...SHORT-TERM 86/GW...LONG-TERM tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 115 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003 MID LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE CENTERED IN THE ST. LOUIS AREA ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS. CLUSTERS OF RELATIVELY WARM TOPPED CONVECTION HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF ACTIVITY IN MISSOURI YET...BUT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING CU OVER SW MISSOURI IN REGION OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MID LEVEL VORT CENTER NEAR STL WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SHEAR APART OVERNIGHT. THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF A MDH/OWB LINE. TO THE SOUTH...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. RUC MODEL TAKES THE FRONT TO THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 03Z. AFTER DARK...WEAKENING UPPER SUPPORT AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND. EVEN THOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SMALL...THEY HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE PRECIP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. ETA STALLS THE FRONT NEAR HOPKINSVILLE ON SATURDAY...WHILE GFS TAKES IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST. ETA FORECAST CAPES ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG NEAR THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. WEAK 500 MB TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ETA/NGM/AVN MOS ALL CRANK OUT CHC POPS IN WESTERN KY ON SATURDAY. WILL REINTRODUCE LOW POPS FROM THE OHIO RIVER SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY. CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. DESPITE BRISK NORTHEAST FLOW...THE MODELS KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S. LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISM SHOULD RESULT IN A RARE DRY DAY FOR THIS MONTH. THE FORECAST CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK IS WHEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN. GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL STRENGTHEN A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY MID WEEK. GFS IS THE FASTEST TO DO SO...AND IT WINDS UP A SURFACE LOW OVER ARKANSAS EARLY IN THE WEEK THAT WOULD SPREAD PRECIP INTO SRN MO/WRN KY ON MONDAY. THE 84-HOUR ETA LENDS NO SUPPORT TO THE GFS. THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL INCREASE DURING MID WEEK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIP FORECAST BY THEN. FOR TEMPS...GFS/NGM MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED. .PAH...NONE. $$ MY ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 429 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS EVENING INCLUDE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FOR CNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES AND SOME PATCHY FOG CONCERNS FOR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS/CLDS WILL BE ONLY CONCERNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS STILL INDICATE SPLIT FLOW ACRS NOAM WITH WRN GREAT LAKES UNDER INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM FLOW. WELL-DEFINED SHRTWV NOTED MOVG ACROSS WRN ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES JUST NORTH OF LAKE FM ASSOC INSTABILITY AND -16 TO -18C 5H COLD POOL. AT THE SFC...A WEAK TROF EXTENDED FROM WRN ONTARIO ACROSS THE CNTRL U.P. WITH SFC DWPNTS IN MID TO UPPER 50S ALG BNDRY. SOME CONVECTION FORMING ALONG TROF AS EVIDENCED BY MODERATE CU ON VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH INVERSION BTWN 750-800 MB PER 12Z GRB SNDG SEEMS TO BE KEEPING ANY DEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK SO FAR. TONIGHT...SFC TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE ACROSS CWA THIS EVNG WITH CONTINUED EASTWARD MVMT OF SHRTWV THRU ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH 750-800 MB INVERSION WILL BE BIG LIMITING FACTOR FOR DVLPMT...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALG SFC TROF AND CONVERGING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES FM SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN...MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH THIS CAP AND ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD TSRA TO DVLP OVER EAST AND CNTRL COUNTIES ERY THIS EVNG SO WL CONTINUE MENTION OF ISOLD TSRA THERE. BEHIND SFC TROF WRN COUNTIES WILL STAY DRY. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DVLP OVER THE WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS SFC DWPNTS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH (IN 55 TO 60 RANGE) IN WRLY FLOW BEHIND TROF THIS EVNG. PASSAGE OF WK COLD FRONT FM WRN ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DWPNTS INTO LOWER 50S LATE TONIGHT AND VEER FLOW MORE NNW. MIN TEMPS IN LOW 50S PER GUIDANCE AND GOING FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD. SATURDAY...MID LVL RDG FM NRN PLAINS BUILDS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES ALONG WITH ASSOC SFC RDG. NRLY WINDS 10-20 MPH AHD OF SFC-850 MB RDG AND 850 MB TEMPS FALLING 1-2C...SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS FM 3-5F COOLER ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BORDERING COUNTIES. SHADED INLAND TEMPS TOWARD COOLER AVN/ETA MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR NRN TIER COUNTIES AND MID 70S FAR SOUTH...WITH COOLEST TEMPS AROUND 60 ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. SUN INTO MON...ETA AND GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS MID LVL RDG BUILDS OVER AREA FROM THE PLAINS...KEEPING AREA DRY INTO ERY NEXT WEEK. NRLY FLOW WEAKENS ON SUN AS SFC-850 MB RDG MOVES OVRHD. 850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE TO 11-12C SUN AND 13-14C BY MON AS 5H HGTS RISE TO 581-583 DM. CONSIDERING WE SHOULD MIX ABV 800 MB UNDER FULL SUN...WOULD EXPECT INLAND HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE LOWER 80S BY MON. EXTENDED...(TUE-FRI)...MODELS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS SLIDING SLOWLY EASTWARD ON TUE AS SHRTWV APPROACHES FM SCNTRL CANADA ALTHOUGH SFC RDGG AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONDS DRY AND WARM AS 850 MB TEMPS STILL IN 13-14C RANGE. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN WAA MID-HI CLDS LATE TUE AHD OF APPROACHING TROF ON TUE ALTHOUGH THESE SHOULDN'T IMPACT HIGH TEMPS FM AGAIN REACHING INTO LOW 80S OVR INLAND AREAS. PASSAGE OF SHRTWV AND ASSOC CDFNT PER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE WILL WARRANT KEEPING IN A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA FOR WED. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW QUICKER MOVING CDFNT THROUGH AREA BY THU AND THIS AGREES WELL WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS. SO WILL GO WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER FCST THU AND FRI AS 850 MB TEMPS LOWER TO 8-10C AND CANADIAN SFC HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND CDFNT. .MQT...NONE. VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 420 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 ...DRY AIR RETURNS FINALLY... THE PRIMARY PROBLEM IS THE CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GET? NEXT IS WILL THE SKY REALLY CLEAR SATURDAY THANKS TO THE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN? IF SO... WILL WE FINALLY SEE HIGHS NEAR 80? RADAR TRENDS SHOW AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INDIANA SHORTWAVE HEADING NORTHEAST. THE ETA SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON IT. THE RUC SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRYING BETWEEN 850 MB AND 700 MB BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT WOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION FROM GETTING THERE. HOWEVER THE ETA AND GFS DO NOT SHOW THAT DRYING AT MID LEVELS. THE WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW NO SIGN OF DRY AIR OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. IN FACT IF ANYTHING MOISTURE IS INCREASING AHEAD OF THAT SHORTWAVE. MSAS SHOWS THE SFC BASED LI HAVE GONE NEGATIVE SOUTH OF I-94 AS OF 19Z. SO...I WILL HAVE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TILL ABOUT MIDNIGHT. BY THEN THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END. ELSEWHERE... THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GRR CWA OVERNIGHT BUT THAT DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. SO I BELIEVE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG (DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE TODAY PLUS LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO REDEVELOP) SHOULD WORK NICELY. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME THICK OVER ANY LARGE AREAS... MOSTLY 1 TO 3 MILE VIS TYPE FOG. FINALLY ON SATURDAY THE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH UNDER CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THAT WILL ALLOW THE DRY AIR TO FINALLY COME IN AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE GRR CWA. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR AFTERNOON CU THROUGH. IF NOT FOR THAT SKIES WOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY 18Z OR SO. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY PROBLEM THERE WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON SUNDAY. THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME COLD AIR AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. SO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING... THEN BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO CU. SKIES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS CU DISSIPATES. ZONES OUT ALREADY. WDM EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION... ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE EXTENDED. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE CENTER OF THE NATION INTO MID WEEK WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER. THE GFS HAS SHOWN A MORE NORTHWARD DRIFT OF AN UPPER LOW THAT SHOULD BE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BY MID WEEK. AT THIS POINT THOU IT WOULD APPEAR TO STAY TOO FAR SOUTH TO AFFECT MI WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER SHOULD BE A SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN PCPN CHCS WITH THIS FRONT. ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. JK .GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 235 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 QUIET DAY TODAY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LACK OF SUNSHINE HAS INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER ILLINOIS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD TO WEST VIRGINIA THEN SOUTH INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. CONVECTION NOW ONLY FIRING UP WITH THIS FEATURE. BOTH RUC AND GFS SEEM TO HAVE THIS FEATURE ANALYZED WELL AND TRACK 500MB SHORTWAVE OVER MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT. KEPT POPS HIGHEST TONIGHT OVER SOUTH AND EAST AND INCLUDED CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS SOUTH. SFC LOW TRIES TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOMORROW BUT MODELS FORCE IT SOUTHWARD UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER GREAT LAKES. WENT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER SOUTH AGAIN. STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH BUILD IN BY SUNDAY MORNING DRYING THINGS OUT OVER CWA. SFC HIGH PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND BE OVER LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY. DRY FLOW CONTINUES OVER REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...12Z GFS BRINGS WAVE INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO WESTERN PA. FOR NOW LEAVE WEDNESDAY DRY. CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH DAY 7. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES FROM 00Z AND 12Z SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CONSISTENCY SO DRY PERIOD FOR SUN-TUE STILL LOOKS BELIEVABLE. .CTP...NONE DIRIENZO pa COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 250 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003 ...GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS... SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG S/WV CURRENTLY MVG INTO FAR WRN TX W/ STRONG CONVECTION FIRING ALL OVER CEN TX IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPR DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE VORT. CONVECTION IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BORDER ALONG THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. EXPECT ACTIVITY AND/OR OUTFLOWS FROM IT TO MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE S/WV MVS THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT IN NRN ZONES AS A GOOD PORTION OF THE S/WV TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING GOOD DYNAMICAL LIFT. MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES AND THE CAP INCREASES AS YOU MOVE SOUTH DUE TO A MID LVL RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN OVR THE GOMEX FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF ANY TSTM COMPLEX AND WILL PROVIDE A SHARP POP GRADIENT ACROSS STH TX...MAKING THIS A VERY DIFFICULT PRECIP FORECAST. WILL KEEP CHC/SCT POPS ALL BUT THE CRP ZONES (KEEPING 20S THERE...THE EVENING CREW MAY NEED TO BUMP THESE UP IN AN UPDATE). SPC HAS NRN AREAS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLT RISK OF SVR TSTMS...AND MAY NEED TO PLAY UP THE POSSIBILITY A LITTLE MORE IN AN UPDATED HWO THIS EVENING. SAT'S FORECAST IS COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE OUTFLOWS LAY COME MORNING. SHOULD CONVECTION/OUTFLOWS COMPLETELY ROLE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY END CHCS FOR MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS. WILL KEEP A BLANKET 30 POP ALL ZONES FOR NOW COUNTING ON LINGERING ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL PRODUCE A CUT OFF LOW NEAR ERN OK ON SAT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND THE CAP WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL S/WV AS A POOL OF MOISTURE SINKS SOUTH. TIMING IS IN DOUBT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER S/WV ROTATES AROUND THE LOW TO THE NE. WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING SAT NIGHT. LONG-TERM (SUN THROUGH FRI)...AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...CONCERN WILL BE FOR REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LINGERING ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIOD AND LESSEN THEM DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY (I.E. WILL PLAY THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SCENARIO). WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SAME TREND AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS IN LESSENING CONVECTION TUESDAY...WITH NO POPS AFTERWARDS. AGAIN...ALL WILL DEPEND ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WHICH I BELIEVE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST NOT TO IMPACT OUR AREA. JUST FIND IT HARD TO BUY THE AVN/GFS KEEPING POPS IN OUR AREA WEDNESDAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OBTAINING A WESTERLY COMPONENT HERE. WITH EXPECTED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...WILL GO WITH COOLER MINS (WHICH IF WE MISS OUT ON THE RAINFALL OR STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE WARMER THAN FORECAST) AND NOT LET MAXES UP TOO HIGH WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING. WILL BEGIN A GENERAL WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF THE AREA. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS: CRP BT 079/093 076/089 074 23354 VCT BT 077/093 073/088 073 53454 LRD BT 079/101 077/095 076 43454 .CRP...SCA BAYS AND WATERWAYS AND OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR ...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON 88/MJG...SHORT-TERM 86/GW...LONG-TERM tx