Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 27
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 845 PM
UNTIL 200 AM EST.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF
SELMA ALABAMA TO 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 24...WW 25...WW 26...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF MS
AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO AL. PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS. BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
DECOUPLE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 27 SEVERE TSTM AL FL MS 190145Z - 190700Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55N SEM/SELMA AL/ - 75SE PIB/PINE BELT MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /32S VUZ - 4WSW SJI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 33138533 30698683 30699004 33138862
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 27 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 27
VALID 190645Z - 190700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MOB TO
55 W GZH TO 10 E GZH TO 15 SW TOI.
WW 27 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 190700Z.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS SHIFTED ESE OF WW 27 ALLOWING THIS
WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 07Z.
..PETERS..02/19/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 27
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-005-035-039-041-053-097-109-113-129-190700-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BARBOUR CONECUH
COVINGTON CRENSHAW ESCAMBIA
MOBILE PIKE RUSSELL
WASHINGTON
$$
FLC033-091-113-190700-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 27
VALID 190515Z - 190640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MOB TO
50 SSE MEI TO 15 WSW AUO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 133
..GUYER..02/19/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 27
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-005-011-013-017-021-025-035-037-039-041-047-051-053-
081-085-087-091-097-099-101-109-113-123-129-131-190640-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR
BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS
CHILTON CLARKE CONECUH
COOSA COVINGTON CRENSHAW
DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MARENGO MOBILE MONROE
MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL
TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
FLC033-091-113-190640-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 27
VALID 190240Z - 190340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..02/19/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 27
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-005-007-011-013-017-021-023-025-027-035-037-039-041-
047-051-053-063-065-081-085-087-091-097-099-101-105-109-111-113-
117-119-121-123-129-131-190340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR
BIBB BULLOCK BUTLER
CHAMBERS CHILTON CHOCTAW
CLARKE CLAY CONECUH
COOSA COVINGTON CRENSHAW
DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA
GREENE HALE LEE
LOWNDES MACON MARENGO
MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY
PERRY PIKE RANDOLPH
RUSSELL SHELBY SUMTER
TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON
WILCOX
$$
FLC033-091-113-190340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
$$
MSC023-031-035-039-041-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-091-101-111-
123-127-129-131-153-190340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST
GEORGE GREENE JASPER
JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
MARION NEWTON PERRY
SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH
STONE WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.