FXUS63 KGID 220315
AFDGRI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1015 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE OUT TO LOWER POPS ESP ERN TWO THIRDS CWA 
OVERNIGHT. 00Z RAOBS POINTING OUT LOW THETA WEDGE IN PLACE ACRS THE 
PLAINS. GOOD MSTR CONFINED WELL SOUTH...SOUTH OF STATIONARY FNTL 
BNDRY THRU OK AND NOT GOING ANYWHERE. DRY EASTERLY LL FLW OVERRUN BY 
GENERALLY WK BUT MOIST MID LVL SW FLW COMBINED W/SOME WK INSTABILITY 
ALOFT ENOUGH TO GENERATE FEW TSRA THIS EVENING BUT LOSS OF 
INSOLATION HAD PUT AN END TO THAT. ABT ONLY CONCRETE THING TO POINT 
A FINGER AT OVERNIGHT IN TERMS OF RENEWED PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS 
W/EMBEDDED SW TROUGH PROPAGATING OUT OF NE CO. META IDEA OF RENEWED 
DEVELOPMENT ACRS SW CWA MIDNIGHT ON HAS MERIT BUT QPF INDICATIONS 
ARE LIKELY WHOLEFULLY OVERDONE. OTHERWISE NO SPRT TO CARRY LIKELY 
THUNDER MENTION FOR THU AND REPLACED W/SHOWER MENTION. AGAIN...LL 
EASTERLY FLW AND ENTRAINMENT OF LOW THETA AIRMASS MAKES THE CASE TO 
BUTCHER POPS BUT SOMETHING THE OVERNIGHT CREW CAN WRANGLE WITH.

&&
T
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
SKIRTING THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE 
OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ONE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE OTHER 
IN SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA 
AND KANSAS AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED WITH SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES 
FOR THIS IN REGARD THIS. 

OVERNIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND CWFA ENDS UP UNDER AN AREA
OF BROAD AREAS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. FLOW TURNS EASTERLY AND 
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH 
PLAINS. CONCERN HAS BECOME JUST HOW FAST AND FAR EAST PRECIPITATION 
ADVANCES THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO A FEW AGO...THE ETA IS ADVECTING IN 
SOME GOOD DRY AIR ON AN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING. IT 
NEVER REALLY TAPS MOISTURE TO SOUTH...WHICH MAY ALREADY BE LIMITED 
DUE EXPECTED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. HAVE CONTINUED WILL PRETTY 
HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWFA MAY BE 
SLIGHTED ON AMOUNTS BY THE TIME THIS ONE ENDS. FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A 
BREAK FROM RAINFALL AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT. EJECTION OF 
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL COME LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND MAY BRING 
SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION AS PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. COOL 
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A MODERATE 10 
DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE AT BEST. 

THINGS QUIET DOWN CONSIDERABLE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER 
SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT..AND THE REGION REMAINS 
IN NORTHWEST FLOW THERE AFTER. HEIGHTS BUILD WITH TIME...BUT COOL 
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING RAPIDLY THROUGH 
MONDAY. THIS RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AND THERMAL PATTERN WILL 
SUPPORT A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...NONE.
.KS...NONE.
&&

$$

NOAA/NWS/MORITZ