FXUS61 KILN 151757 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 157 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004 .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... SAT IMAGERY SHOWING POSITION OF VORT QUITE WELL JUST NW OF KDAY. SHOWERS SPARKING ALONG THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY...AND AN ISOLD ONE OR TWO OF THESE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE. HAVE LEFT THIS OUT ATTM BUT WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF CELLS MAINTAIN STRENGTH (WHICH THEY SHOULDN'T) OR BECOME STRONGER. DOUBT THAT THEY WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN RIGHT NOW...BUT A FEW MERGING BOUNDARIES COULD GIVE AN ADDED KICK. SINCE THIS IS BEYOND THE SCOPE THAT I HAVE ABILITY TO FCST...HAVE JUST INCLUDED CB IN GROUPS FROM DAY TO ILN TO CMH. ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING DUE TO NIGHTFALL AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL BLOWOFF FROM CURRENT CELLS. LESS CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE FORCING...AND TOMORROW OUTSIDE OF THE BEST LAPSE RATES. DID NOT INCLUDE A NEW GROUP FOR CVG TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT SHOULD BE FEW CU IN THE AFTERNOON. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... .SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)... ISOLD SHOWER IN HARDIN COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING LEADS TO BELIEVE THAT A FEW OTHER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING GIVING A BOOST TO INSTABILITY. H5 TROF IS IN NWRN FCST AREA WITH A VORT PROGGED TO BE RIGHT UNDERNEATH IT IN SERN IN BY 18Z AND WRN OH BY 0Z TONIGHT. WEAK RIDGE AT H8 WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO COUNTER THIS AS H8 THERMAL AXIS IS RIGHT UNDERNEATH H5 TROF. FOCUS ON CONVECTION WILL BE IN NW FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND SPREAD TO A DAY-CMH CORRIDOR AS H8 THERMAL TROF REMAINS STATIONARY AND THE H5 TROF SLOWLY SLIDES EWD. LAPSE RATES IN THE SW AND SRN CWA SHOULD LIMIT ANY ISOLD/WIDELY SCT ACTIVITY TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND NWD. ON TEMPERATURES...THINGS LOOK TO BE RUNNING ON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH MID 70S...ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004 SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... SHORT WAVE IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA WILL LIFT EAST NORTHEAST TODAY. APPEARS THAT LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AND RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS. WHILE ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE THE GFS IS THE ONLY ONE THAT HAS BEEN PICKING UP ON THE PRECIPITATION. SO WILL FOLLOW ALONG CLOSER TO ITS SOLUTION. HAVE UPPED POPS TO CHANCE IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE BETTER LIFT SHOULD BE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE AS WEAK INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO STRAY POP UP SHOWERS. AFTER THIS SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT THE REGION WILL BE IN WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIVERGING ON HOW FAST THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES IN PART DUE TO HANDLING OF VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT FORCING WILL BE LIMITED BUT ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO THE WEST TO BE ABLE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. GENERALLY FAVORED THE COOLER OF THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES. THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004 LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... FAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL GO FROM A WEAK TROF TO NEUTRAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WED AFT AND THEN TURN AROUND AND MOVE THROUGH AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF PRECIP AND FRONTAL POSITIONS IS TOUGH AT THIS TIME SO WILL GO WITH 30 POPS. TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MID WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$