FXUS62 KRAH 100217
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT WED JUN  9 2004

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES NORTHWEST...

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION OF THIS AFTERNOON SPREAD OUT INTO A FAIRLY GOOD AREA OF 
STRATIFORM RAINFALL DURING THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS 
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. EVEN THAT RAINFALL HAD ALL DIMINISHED AS 
OF 1000 PM. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS GREATLY STABILIZED BY THE EARLIER 
STORMS AND BY THE ONSET OF NIGHTFALL OVER CENTRAL NC. SCATTERED 
STORMS WELL TO OUR WEST... OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN 
MAINTAINING SOME OF THEIR INTENSITY AND COVERAGE... DUE TO SLIGHTLY 
MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THERE. AN ISOLATED STORM AT 1000 PM HAD 
DRIFTED INTO THE FOOTHILLS ABOUT 50 MILES NW OF WINSTON-SALEM. OTHER 
SCATTERED ACTIVITY WAS UPSTREAM OVER SW VIRGINIA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS 
MOVING ESE TOWARD THE BORDER OF NC/VA. 

DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NW AT 1000 
PM... A 20 POP WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE PIEDMONT TRIAD REGION OF 
THE NW PIEDMONT. A WEAK MOUNTAIN LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND OLD 
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE... NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT 
FORECAST OTHER THAN TO DROP POP ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. -BADGETT
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
130 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2004
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER ERN GA IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. 
ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL 
GIVE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH. EXPECT COVERAGE ACROSS THE 
NORTH TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW THERE. 

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC MOVES FARTHER 
OFFSHORE AND THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS WESTERLY AS THE MID LEVEL 
CIRCULATION MOVES EAST. THIS ALLOWS A PIEDMONT TROUGH TO 
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL INCREASE SURFACE CONVERGENCE. PW WILL REMAIN 
HIGH...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE 
POPS THROUGH THE EVENING. POPS RISE INTO HIGH CHANCES ON FRIDAY AS A 
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA...AND THE BACK DOOR FRONT 
APPROACHES. AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...THERE IS 
A CHANCE OF A REMNANT UPSTREAM MCS RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPS 
REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY BOTH DAYS...HIGHS 85 TO 90 AND LOWS 65 TO 
70. 

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. 
THE GFS PUSHES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LI GRADIENT WELL TO OUR 
SOUTH...WHILE THE ETA KEEPS IT TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH A WIND SHIFT 
LINE TO OUR SOUTH. GFS HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW RUNS 
WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS 
SOLUTION UNTIL THE ETA SHOWS MORE CONSISTENCY. THUS WILL HAVE LOW 
CHANCE POPS NORTH/HIGH CHANCE SOUTH SATURDAY...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE 
SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE HIGHS NORTH AROUND 80 WITH 85 TO 
90 SOUTH.  -DGS

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BACK DOOR FRONT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF 
THE CWA WITH A COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS 
BEEN PERSISTENT ON THIS PAST SEVERAL RUNS...NOW GFS TRENDING IN THAT 
DIRECTION...HOWEVER GFS STILL HOLDING ON TO CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE. 
AT THIS POINT...WITH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE CWA...HAVE 
REMOVED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS COOLS (1383-1385) 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE LOWERED MAXES TO AROUND 80 NORTHWEST TO MID 
80S SOUTHEAST. MEX GUIDANCE INDICATING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SO 
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT IN MAXES IN THE 70S. BY MONDAY 
BACKDOOR FRONT EITHER WASHES OUT/OR MOVE BACK NORTH...THEN RETURN 
FLOW SETTING UP...SO BACK TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME OF SCATTERED 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE 
WEST...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS PREVIOUS DAY...MODELS INDICATED 
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...NOW WEDNESDAY. SO WILL KEEP CHANCE 
MENTIONED THROUGH MID WEEK. TAD LOWER MAXES CONTINUING MONDAY...THEN 
MAXES MID/UPPER 80S BY MID WEEK.  --RA   
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GREENSBORO (GSO)      67  86  67  86 /  30  30  30  40 
RALEIGH-DURHAM (RDU)  68  88  69  86 /  30  30  30  40 
FAYETTEVILLE (FAY)    70  89  70  89 /  40  30  30  40 
ROCKY MOUNT (RWI)     69  89  69  85 /  20  30  30  40 
ALBEMARLE (VUJ)       68  87  67  88 /  50  30  30  40 
GOLDSBORO (GSB)       70  89  70  89 /  30  30  30  40 
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
&&

$$

BADGETT