FXUS64 KCRP 152005
AFDCRP

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
305 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NGT)...GFS/ETA PROGS THE UPPER 
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE TX PANHANDLE...TO MOVE ACRS 
TX DRG THE PERIOD. SOME OF ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WL LIKELY 
MOVE ACRS THE REGION. HWR...CONCUR WITH THE ETA THAT HIGH CIN VALUES 
WL CONTINUE. FURTHER...DO NOT FEEL THAT INSTABILITY WL BE RELEASED 
FROM THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY LAYER DRG THE PERIOD. THUS...WL NOT 
FCST PCPN DRG THE PD...HWR UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE.
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TNGT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AS
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTERS TX. NEAR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES 
EXPECTED AT CRP FRIDAY AFTN. 

LONG-TERM (SAT THROUGH THU)...WEAK AND DISSIPATING FRONT WILL STALL 
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH A LIGHTER...MORE 
EASTERLY SFC FLOW OVER THE AREA.  IF IT WERENT FOR THE 850 FRONT 
MOVING THROUGH AND RESULTING IN DECENT CAA ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE 
LIGHTER WINDS ON SAT WOULD RESULT IN WARMER MAX TEMPS.  BOTH 
TEMPERATURE MECHANISMS SHOULD CANCEL EACH OTHER OUT AND WILL 
CONTINUE A GENERAL PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS SAT.  WILL RETAIN 
MENTION OF VERY SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE VCT GROUPING AS DIURNAL 
HEATING AND SUFFICIENT ERODING OF THE CAP INVOF GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE 
ZONE NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE ISO RW/TRW.  TEMPS WILL 
SLOWLY WARM SUN-TUE AS THICKNESS PROGS INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING 
RIDGE TO THE WEST.  WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE AS WELL...BUT BELIEVE WE 
WILL REMAIN BELOW BREEZY OR SCA CONDITIONS.  ON WED...ALL LONG-RANGE 
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INSISTING FOR 4-5 DAYS NOW THAT A LATE 
SEASON COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AS A STRONG 1035MB HIGH DIVES 
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.  WILL FCST A WEAK FROPA AT THIS STAGE WITH 
COOLEST TEMPS OVER THE NE...DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVING 
EAST.   GFS SUGGESTING A 5 DEG REDUCTION IN HIGH TEMPS ON WED/THU 
WITH MIN TEMPS THU MORNING 10 DEG COOLER DUE TO DRIER AIR.  WILL 
HOLD OFF ON PRECIP AT THIS TIME...BUT STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN 
THE AREA WED-THU WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR MUCH NEEDED PRECIP.

CRP NB 077/091 077/092 074 0000
VCT BB 075/093 075/091 072 0001
LRD BB 078/100 077/101 075 0000

87...SHORT-TERM
92/TR...LONG-TERM

.CRP...SCA GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275.