WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 835 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2006 .UPDATE...WATER VAPOR STLT AND RUC LOCATES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT REACHES BACK ACROSS FL WHILE MSAS SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA. STLT AND MTR INDICATE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ALONG WITH SOME FOG...PATCHY OVER THE COAST BUT SLIGHTLY DENSER INLAND. WILL WAIT 1-2 HRS TO ALLOW THE FOG AND CLOUDS TO CLEAR AND THEN UPDATE THE ZONES TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR REST OF TODAY. TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK OK. && .MARINE...BUOY/SHIP/COASTAL OBS...RAOB...AND SURF REPORT SUPPORT THE ONGOING FORECAST OF ~10 OR 10-15KT WITH SEAS 2 OR 2-3FT AND A LIGHT CHOP FOR TODAY. NEXT ISSUANCE OUT AROUND 10 AM WITH LITTLE CHANGE. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ RKR/09 fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1040 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 .DISCUSSION... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR NORTHEAST AS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. RADAR MOSAIC/SURFACE OBS INDICATE LIGHT RAIN FALLING ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS PREVENTING PRECIP FROM RAPIDLY SPREADING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. BASED ON AREA RADAR LOOPS AND 12Z NAM/RUC QPF FIELDS...IT APPEARS PRECIP WILL REACH THE FAR SOUTHEAST KILX CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...AND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. HAVE UPDATED POP GRIDS TO DROP PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF I-70...WHILE GOING WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF I-70 BY 21Z. WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND E/NE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND THIS MORNING...WITH 16Z READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST...TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. WILL TWEAK AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REFLECT A TIGHTER TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST AREAS AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE... DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL SPREAD PRECIP NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. QUESTION IS... JUST HOW FAR NORTH DOES IT GO. LONGER RANGE SHOWS CONTINUED MILD TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD... EXCEPT FOR A POSSIBLE BRIEF LAPSE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... DENSE FOG ADVY HEADLINE ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING GOES THROUGH 10 AM... MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA... ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY I-74 AND I-55. MAIN CONCERN HERE IS FOR THE BLOOMINGTON AREA WHERE SLIGHT UPSLOPE EXISTS... IN THE PEORIA AREA ALONG THE RIVER... AND FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SNOWPACK REGIONS. WEAK WAA OVER SNOWPACK... WITH SOME MELTING ADDING TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE KEPT STRATUS DECK IN OVER THE WESTERN CWA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... SATELLITE OBS INDICATE THAT AS STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTHWARD... VSBYS IN FZFG QUICKLY DROP. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY... ALLOWING WEAK SFC WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH STRETCHES FROM TEXAS TO ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SFC STATIONARY FRONT. MAIN QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NORTH PRECIP MAKES IT. GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON KEEPING MAIN BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING... INVOF SFC STATIONARY FRONT. HOWEVER... 12KM ETA ALSO INDICATES SECONDARY BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS BY 00Z IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT. EARLIER RUNS OF THE ETA BROUGHT PRECIP SHIELD RATHER FAR NORTH... HOWEVER 06Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS. WHILE ENTIRE REGION REMAINS IN RRQ OF 150KT JET... SUGGESTING BROAD LIFT... ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES BEST FORCING PARAMETERS WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-70... ALONG WITH VERY SHARP LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT... SUGGESTING RAZOR SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP SHIELD. PRECIP EVEN SOUTH OF I-70 WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR. FARTHER NORTH... LACK OF SUSTAINED LIFT AND CHOKINGLY DRY AIR SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT PRECIP THREAT. FAIRLY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT... PERHAPS ENDING AS A BIT OF SNOW. HOWEVER... PRECIP SHOULD PULL OUT RATHER QUICKLY... SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT... REDUCING ANY SNOW OR MIX PRECIP POTENTIAL. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ON MONDAY... WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. TUESDAY... A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO REINFORCE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND/EASTERN CANADA ON TUESDAY. ETA HAS BEEN DOWNPLAYING THIS EVENT... INDICATING A WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO A LESS AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE. THE RESULT IS THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH IN THIS SCENARIO. OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT MORE VIGOROUS... WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SLIDING FARTHER SOUTH. OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE (UKMET/MM5) LEANS TOWARDS ITS FAVOR... AS WELL AS MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER ETA PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER BEYOND THE 24-36 HR TIME FRAME HAS BEEN SOMETHING SHORT OF SPECTACULAR. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR... AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... BEYOND TUESDAY... RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ONCE AGAIN... BRINING MILDER TEMPS. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REVOLVE AROUND CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK. KICKER TROUGH APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK... WITH CUTOFF REMNANTS MOVING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. I DO NOT HAVE MUCH TRUST IN HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES SOUTHWESTERN CUTOFFS... ESPECIALLY THIS FAR IN FUTURE. POSITION OF CUTOFF MIDWEEK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHERE IT GOES AS KICKER TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE... TAKING THE CUTOFF SOUTH OF US ONE RUN... THEN ACROSS US THE NEXT. GFS MAY BE KEEPING CUTOFF SYSTEM IN TACT TOO LONG... RATHER THAN SHEARING THE SYSTEM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM. ECMWF OFFERS A MORE SHEARED OUT SOLUTION... WITH CUTOFF REMNANTS PASSING MORE TOWARDS OUR NORTH... AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DIGGING PACIFIC TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE IS AS USUAL... RATHER LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY WITH JUST INCREASING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH CUTOFF SHEARING OUT TO OUR NORTHWEST. BETTER PRECIP THREAT WILL COME WITH PACIFIC SYSTEM... CONSIDERING UNCLEAR TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM... WILL GO WITH JUST A 20 POP FOR NOW. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ BARNES/HARDIMAN il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 120 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 .UPDATE... WE ARE SENDING ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IT APPEARS LIKE OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING CUT OFF FROM THE CONVECTION IN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. COX && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006/ AVIATION... WE ARE GOING TO SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE CLOUD COVER FOR CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE STRATUS DECK OVER NEBRASKA IS NOW STALLING AND MIXING OUT. AS A RESULT...CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD SEE FULL SUN THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE ALSO TAKEN OUT THE LOW CEILINGS IN THE TAFS. COX && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006/ UPDATE... MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOVING THROUGH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE JET STREAK/BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS SUPPOSE TO PLAY A ROLE IN BRINGING SOME LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING ANY RAIN. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM SGF AND TOP SHOWING THAT POCKET OF DRY AIR VERY WELL BELOW 700MB. AS A RESULT...WE ARE UNABLE TO SATURATE THE LOW LAYERS. LATEST PROFILERS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE 700MB FLOW TURNING TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL START BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE MID LEVELS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES...BUT I AM NOT OPTIMISTIC THAT WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN...APPEARS TO BE IN THE DROUGHT STRICKEN REGION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. COX && AVIATION... LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LOW IFR STRATUS DECK PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS IS NOT BEING RESOLVED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS VERY WELL AT ALL...WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS I WOULD EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO RUSSELL AND SALINA BETWEEN 22 AND 24Z. CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE BALL PARK. COX && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006/ UPDATE... MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOVING THROUGH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE JET STREAK/BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS SUPPOSE TO PLAY A ROLE IN BRINGING SOME LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING ANY RAIN. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM SGF AND TOP SHOWING THAT POCKET OF DRY AIR VERY WELL BELOW 700MB. AS A RESULT...WE ARE UNABLE TO SATURATE THE LOW LAYERS. LATEST PROFILERS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE 700MB FLOW TURNING TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL START BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE MID LEVELS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES...BUT I AM NOT OPTIMISTIC THAT WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN...APPEARS TO BE IN THE DROUGHT STRICKEN REGION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. COX && AVIATION... ATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LOW IFR STRATUS DECK PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS IS NOT BEING RESOLVED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS VERY WELL AT ALL...WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS I WOULD EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO RUSSELL AND SALINA BETWEEN 22 AND 24Z. CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE BALL PARK. COX && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006/ SYNOPSIS... DATA ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD RIGHT OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR TODAY. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...TEXAS...AND AREAS EAST WHILE LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. KTLX RADAR SHOWING SOME PRETTY REASONABLE RETURNS THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. && DISCUSSION... TODAY: MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS ASCERTAINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPE/AMOUNT FROM TODAYS SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE BAROCLINIC LEAF VERY WELL. DARKENING ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE INFLECTION POINT WILL BE FURTHER WEST THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. I BELIEVE THIS IS ALREADY MANIFESTING ITSELF IN THE OBSERVED PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST THAN ANY OF THE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST. THE NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS REMAIN THE FURTHEST WEST...HOWEVER THE 06Z RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHEAST. STILL THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THIS IS A GOOD BET AT THIS POINT GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY. REGARDING THE TYPE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS USING A TOP DOWN APPROACH SUGGEST AN ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONDUCIVE TO SNOW...WITH ONLY THE SURFACE LAYER PREVENTING THIS /IT CHANGES IT OVER TO RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S/. HOWEVER...IF IT PRECIPITATES HARD ENOUGH...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW FROM LATENT HEAT BE ABSORBED DUE TO MELTING...COOLING THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE. KEPT A RAIN/SNOW MIX. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DID NOT FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD SEE MORNING HIGHS...THEN TEMPERATURES FALLING DUE TO DIABATIC COOLING FROM THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN. THURSDAY-FRIDAY: MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM HERE IS DETERMINING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE HERE IS RATHER LOW. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONSISTENTLY TIMING THIS SYSTEM. GFS/DGEX SOLUTION SLOWS IT DOWN THIS RUN. THINK THIS IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY RESULTS IN MODELS FORECASTING SYSTEM EVOLUTIONS TOO FAST. THEREFORE...BELIEVE INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY PERTINENT HERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A FLOW TRAJECTORY FROM THE ARCTIC THAT WOULD BRING DOWN COLD AIR. KRC && PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 46 25 49 27 / 30 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 46 23 48 26 / 20 0 0 0 NEWTON 46 25 48 27 / 20 0 0 0 ELDORADO 46 25 48 27 / 30 0 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 47 26 50 27 / 30 0 0 0 RUSSELL 45 20 48 24 / 10 0 0 0 GREAT BEND 45 20 48 25 / 10 0 0 0 SALINA 45 22 48 26 / 20 0 0 0 MCPHERSON 46 23 48 26 / 20 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 47 26 49 28 / 40 0 0 0 CHANUTE 47 25 48 28 / 30 0 0 0 IOLA 46 25 48 28 / 30 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1250 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 .AVIATION... WE ARE GOING TO SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE CLOUD COVER FOR CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE STRATUS DECK OVER NEBRASKA IS NOW STALLING AND MIXING OUT. AS A RESULT...CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD SEE FULL SUN THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE ALSO TAKEN OUT THE LOW CEILINGS IN THE TAFS. COX && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006/ UPDATE... MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOVING THROUGH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE JET STREAK/BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS SUPPOSE TO PLAY A ROLE IN BRINGING SOME LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING ANY RAIN. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM SGF AND TOP SHOWING THAT POCKET OF DRY AIR VERY WELL BELOW 700MB. AS A RESULT...WE ARE UNABLE TO SATURATE THE LOW LAYERS. LATEST PROFILERS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE 700MB FLOW TURNING TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL START BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE MID LEVELS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES...BUT I AM NOT OPTIMISTIC THAT WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN...APPEARS TO BE IN THE DROUGHT STRICKEN REGION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. COX && AVIATION... LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LOW IFR STRATUS DECK PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS IS NOT BEING RESOLVED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS VERY WELL AT ALL...WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS I WOULD EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO RUSSELL AND SALINA BETWEEN 22 AND 24Z. CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE BALL PARK. COX && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006/ UPDATE... MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOVING THROUGH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE JET STREAK/BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS SUPPOSE TO PLAY A ROLE IN BRINGING SOME LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING ANY RAIN. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM SGF AND TOP SHOWING THAT POCKET OF DRY AIR VERY WELL BELOW 700MB. AS A RESULT...WE ARE UNABLE TO SATURATE THE LOW LAYERS. LATEST PROFILERS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE 700MB FLOW TURNING TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL START BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE MID LEVELS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES...BUT I AM NOT OPTIMISTIC THAT WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN...APPEARS TO BE IN THE DROUGHT STRICKEN REGION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. COX && AVIATION... ATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LOW IFR STRATUS DECK PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS IS NOT BEING RESOLVED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS VERY WELL AT ALL...WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS I WOULD EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO RUSSELL AND SALINA BETWEEN 22 AND 24Z. CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE BALL PARK. COX && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006/ SYNOPSIS... DATA ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD RIGHT OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR TODAY. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...TEXAS...AND AREAS EAST WHILE LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. KTLX RADAR SHOWING SOME PRETTY REASONABLE RETURNS THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. && DISCUSSION... TODAY: MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS ASCERTAINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPE/AMOUNT FROM TODAYS SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE BAROCLINIC LEAF VERY WELL. DARKENING ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE INFLECTION POINT WILL BE FURTHER WEST THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. I BELIEVE THIS IS ALREADY MANIFESTING ITSELF IN THE OBSERVED PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST THAN ANY OF THE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST. THE NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS REMAIN THE FURTHEST WEST...HOWEVER THE 06Z RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHEAST. STILL THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THIS IS A GOOD BET AT THIS POINT GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY. REGARDING THE TYPE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS USING A TOP DOWN APPROACH SUGGEST AN ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONDUCIVE TO SNOW...WITH ONLY THE SURFACE LAYER PREVENTING THIS /IT CHANGES IT OVER TO RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S/. HOWEVER...IF IT PRECIPITATES HARD ENOUGH...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW FROM LATENT HEAT BE ABSORBED DUE TO MELTING...COOLING THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE. KEPT A RAIN/SNOW MIX. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DID NOT FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD SEE MORNING HIGHS...THEN TEMPERATURES FALLING DUE TO DIABATIC COOLING FROM THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN. THURSDAY-FRIDAY: MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM HERE IS DETERMINING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE HERE IS RATHER LOW. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONSISTENTLY TIMING THIS SYSTEM. GFS/DGEX SOLUTION SLOWS IT DOWN THIS RUN. THINK THIS IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY RESULTS IN MODELS FORECASTING SYSTEM EVOLUTIONS TOO FAST. THEREFORE...BELIEVE INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY PERTINENT HERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A FLOW TRAJECTORY FROM THE ARCTIC THAT WOULD BRING DOWN COLD AIR. KRC && PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 46 25 49 27 / 30 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 46 23 48 26 / 20 0 0 0 NEWTON 46 25 48 27 / 20 0 0 0 ELDORADO 46 25 48 27 / 30 0 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 47 26 50 27 / 30 0 0 0 RUSSELL 45 20 48 24 / 10 0 0 0 GREAT BEND 45 20 48 25 / 10 0 0 0 SALINA 45 22 48 26 / 20 0 0 0 MCPHERSON 46 23 48 26 / 20 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 47 26 49 28 / 40 0 0 0 CHANUTE 47 25 48 28 / 30 0 0 0 IOLA 46 25 48 28 / 30 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1030 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2006 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT FORECAST CONCERN IS AREA OF STRATUS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. NAM/GFS SEEM TO BE RATHER CLUELESS TO THIS AREA OF CLOUDS...AND THE RUC ONLY SLIGHTLY PICKING UP ON IT. SEEMS BEST TIED TO AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 280/285K SFC'S WHICH WOULD POINT TO THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD FORMATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND UP CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT WONT BE TO AGGRESSIVE ON THE WESTERN PUSH OF CLOUDS AS DIRECTION OF THE FLOW AND FORCING DONT FAVOR MUCH OF A WESTWARD PUSH. THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS...AS TEMPS UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD COVER HAVE LEVELED OFF AND ARE CLIMBING VERY SLOWLY. THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL BE REACHED IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF AND DROPPING SLIGHTLY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE TO LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE NORTHEAST. REST OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS HRLY TEMPS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON TARGET EVERYWHERE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE FOUR CORNERS RGN. THIS WAVE WL PUSH TO THE GRT LAKES RGN TNT. GFS...ETA AND EC ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS CONT TO BE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND INTO MID WEEK. SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW. WL KEEP TEMPS THIS AFT SLIGHTLY BLO GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN SNOW COVERED AREAS DUE TO WEAK CAA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND INCREASING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WL WARM DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH WSTRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SLIGHTLY COOLER MET GUIDANCE. DAYS 4-7 LOOK TO BE IN FINE SHAPE AND THUS DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES. PATTERN INDICATES DRY AND MILD WX WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE BAJA REGION WED AND TRACK NE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE EC HAS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AND PAINTS SOME PCPN IN CWA WHILE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WL NOT INTRODUCE POPS THUR AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY WITH MODEL RUNS BUT WL INCREASE CLOUD COVER. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ JRM/CLK ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1035 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 .UPDATE... MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOVING THROUGH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE JET STREAK/BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS SUPPOSE TO PLAY A ROLE IN BRINGING SOME LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING ANY RAIN. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM SGF AND TOP SHOWING THAT POCKET OF DRY AIR VERY WELL BELOW 700MB. AS A RESULT...WE ARE UNABLE TO SATURATE THE LOW LAYERS. LATEST PROFILERS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE 700MB FLOW TURNING TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL START BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE MID LEVELS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES...BUT I AM NOT OPTIMISTIC THAT WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN...APPEARS TO BE IN THE DROUGHT STRICKEN REGION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. COX && .AVIATION... LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LOW IFR STRATUS DECK PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS IS NOT BEING RESOLVED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS VERY WELL AT ALL...WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS I WOULD EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO RUSSELL AND SALINA BETWEEN 22 AND 24Z. CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE BALL PARK. COX && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006/ UPDATE... MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOVING THROUGH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE JET STREAK/BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS SUPPOSE TO PLAY A ROLE IN BRINGING SOME LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING ANY RAIN. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM SGF AND TOP SHOWING THAT POCKET OF DRY AIR VERY WELL BELOW 700MB. AS A RESULT...WE ARE UNABLE TO SATURATE THE LOW LAYERS. LATEST PROFILERS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE 700MB FLOW TURNING TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL START BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE MID LEVELS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE REDUCED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES...BUT I AM NOT OPTIMISTIC THAT WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN...APPEARS TO BE IN THE DROUGHT STRICKEN REGION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. COX && AVIATION... ATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LOW IFR STRATUS DECK PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS IS NOT BEING RESOLVED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS VERY WELL AT ALL...WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS I WOULD EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO RUSSELL AND SALINA BETWEEN 22 AND 24Z. CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE BALL PARK. COX && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006/ SYNOPSIS... DATA ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD RIGHT OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR TODAY. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...TEXAS...AND AREAS EAST WHILE LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. KTLX RADAR SHOWING SOME PRETTY REASONABLE RETURNS THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. && DISCUSSION... TODAY: MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS ASCERTAINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPE/AMOUNT FROM TODAYS SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE BAROCLINIC LEAF VERY WELL. DARKENING ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE INFLECTION POINT WILL BE FURTHER WEST THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. I BELIEVE THIS IS ALREADY MANIFESTING ITSELF IN THE OBSERVED PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST THAN ANY OF THE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST. THE NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS REMAIN THE FURTHEST WEST...HOWEVER THE 06Z RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHEAST. STILL THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THIS IS A GOOD BET AT THIS POINT GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY. REGARDING THE TYPE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS USING A TOP DOWN APPROACH SUGGEST AN ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONDUCIVE TO SNOW...WITH ONLY THE SURFACE LAYER PREVENTING THIS /IT CHANGES IT OVER TO RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S/. HOWEVER...IF IT PRECIPITATES HARD ENOUGH...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW FROM LATENT HEAT BE ABSORBED DUE TO MELTING...COOLING THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE. KEPT A RAIN/SNOW MIX. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DID NOT FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD SEE MORNING HIGHS...THEN TEMPERATURES FALLING DUE TO DIABATIC COOLING FROM THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN. THURSDAY-FRIDAY: MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM HERE IS DETERMINING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE HERE IS RATHER LOW. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONSISTENTLY TIMING THIS SYSTEM. GFS/DGEX SOLUTION SLOWS IT DOWN THIS RUN. THINK THIS IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY RESULTS IN MODELS FORECASTING SYSTEM EVOLUTIONS TOO FAST. THEREFORE...BELIEVE INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY PERTINENT HERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A FLOW TRAJECTORY FROM THE ARCTIC THAT WOULD BRING DOWN COLD AIR. KRC && PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 46 25 49 27 / 30 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 46 23 48 26 / 20 0 0 0 NEWTON 46 25 48 27 / 20 0 0 0 ELDORADO 46 25 48 27 / 30 0 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 47 26 50 27 / 30 0 0 0 RUSSELL 45 20 48 24 / 10 0 0 0 GREAT BEND 45 20 48 25 / 10 0 0 0 SALINA 45 22 48 26 / 20 0 0 0 MCPHERSON 46 23 48 26 / 20 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 47 26 49 28 / 40 0 0 0 CHANUTE 47 25 48 28 / 30 0 0 0 IOLA 46 25 48 28 / 30 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 235 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT LITTLE CHANGES MADE OVERALL TO CURRENT FCST PACKAGE. CURRENT GOES WV LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE SLIDING OUT OF SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED STREAM OF DEEP MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SFC...AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A COASTAL TX LOW NORTHEAST TO THE TN VALLEY. H8 WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED PER 12Z MAP ANALYSIS VS CURRENT PROFILER DATA AND IS ACTING AS SOURCE FOR THE DEEPEST MOIST ASCENT. THIS IS HELPING TO INCREASE PRECIP COVERAGE ON 88D MOSAIC OVER AR DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS. ANY CG LIGHTNING THOUGH HAS HAD TOUGH TIME WORKING NORTH OF THE STALLED H8 FRONT...OR GENERALLY A KLIT TO KMKL LINE. CURRENT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS TOUGH TO GET A HANDLE ON DUE TO 88D BRIGHT BANDING...BUT HERE AT WFO OVER HALF AN INCH SHOULD SPEAK FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CWA UP TO MID AFTERNOON. GFS LOCATION OF PRECIP AND FORCING HAS BEEN FAIRLY CLOSE THROUGHOUT PAST 12 HOURS SO HAVE LEANED ON THAT SOLUTION MORE SO DURING THE SHORT TERM. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THE SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CWA...HOWEVER PRECIP WILL CONTINUE AS BROAD ASCENT TIGHTENS AND FOCUSES ON EASTERN CWA AFTER 00Z. SOUTHERN THUNDER PRESENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH K-INDICES OF 28 AND H8 LIFTED INDICES OF NEAR ZERO. THESE VALUES BARELY INFRINGE ON LOWER KY PENNYRILE DURING THE EARLY EVENING...SO HAVE KEPT SCHC THUNDER MENTION BUT ONLY TO 03Z. QPF AMOUNTS ARE MORE OF CHALLENGE...WHERE HPC GUIDANCE PAINTS AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ACROSS KY PENNYRILE...AND GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR MORE ELSEWHERE. HAVE GONE VERY CLOSE TO THIS AND TWEAKED UP SLIGHTLY OVER LOWER PENNYRILE...BUT STILL AN 18-HOUR TOTAL BELOW FFG THRESHOLDS SO NO MENTION IN GRIDS NECESSARY. AND FINALLY...NORTHERN CWA RUC AND GFS SNDGS CONTINUE TO KEEP WET BULB ABOVE ZERO AND LOWER TROP PROFILE ISOTHERMAL THROUGHOUT PRECIP DURATION...SO ALL LIQUID ANTICIPATED. REST OF SHORT TERM FAIRLY BENIGN AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RULE WITH TEMPS 8 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER ON MON THAN TODAY. WITH AMPLE WATER ON THE SFC DUE TO THE RAINS...FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT ASSESS FURTHER. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS COOLER MET MOS. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DEEP NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME. THU MORNING...THE SFC HIGH WILL JUST BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST. WAA WILL PROBABLY START LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR ALL EXCEPT SERN MO /THE COOLEST LOWS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE/. A CUT OFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER SRN CA IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THU EVE...INTRODUCING WAA RAINS TO THE PAH FCST AREA...MOVING GENERALLY FROM SW TO NE. BY SUNRISE ON FRI...THE CHCS OF PCPN SEEM TO BE A LITTLE BETTER...BUT STILL RATHER SMALL...AS THE LOW/S/WV PASSES TO THE NORTH. CANADIAN GEM WAS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH THE OVERALL MID/UPPER PATTERN WHILE ECMWF/UKMET SHOWED THE FEATURE FARTHER TO THE NW. THIS TENDED TO INJECT SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FCST...THUS THE LOW POPS ATTM. MOST OF THE PCPN WILL PROBABLY END OVER THE REGION BY AFTN AS THE S/WV CONTINUES TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND THEN THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER PRONOUNCED LONG WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. TIMING OF INITIAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE(S) EJECTING OUT OF THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE DIFFICULT AT BEST...SO WILL JUST GO WITH BLANKET CHC POPS SAT AND SUNDAY. STILL NO ARCTIC AIR IN SIGHT AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ZONAL EVEN AFTER THE WEEKEND SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS JANUARY WILL END UP CHALLENGING AS ONE OF THE WARMEST ON RECORD IN PADUCAH...IF NOT THE WARMEST. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ MTF/DB/GM ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1103 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 .UPDATE... FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY TO CLEAN UP AFTN WORDING. FIRST ROUND OF RAIN SHIELD NOW OVER AREA. THOUGH SOME HOLES EXIST IN 88D MOSAIC OVER NE AR AND WEST TN...NEARLY COMPLETE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AS WV LOOP AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE LIFTING UPWARD OVER H8 WARM FRONT. ACCORDING TO K-INDICES AND RUC SOUNDING EXAMINATION...THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KENTUCKY AND PURCHASE PARKWAYS. AM SEEING SOME BRIGHT BANDING ON 88D BUT AT ROUGHLY 6000 FT LEVEL. EVEN THOUGH SFC TEMPS AND WET BULB VALUES ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...LOWER TROP PROFILE REMAINS ISOTHERMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY INVERTED. SO STILL NO FROZEN PRECIP EXPECTED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING RAPIDLY NE ACROSS ARKANSAS. BASED ON THIS...WE FAVOR THE FASTER GFS...WHICH SPREADS RAIN CHANCES NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF OUR AREA 12-18Z. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT RAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS NW TO CATEGORICAL SE FOR RAIN. KEPT A THUNDER MENTION IN THE KHOP AREA FOR EARLY TONIGHT BASED ON ELEVATED STABILITY FIELDS...BUT BETTER ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST. AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN...HPC PROGS SUGGEST UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE SE 1/4 OF OUR CWFA. THIS IS OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. FFG VALUES 12 TO 24 HOURS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 4 INCHES...SO WHILE THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL NOT MENTION THAT FOR NOW BASED ON DURATION. WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AT 06Z TONIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGESTING PRECIP ENDS BEFORE ENOUGH LOW TROP COOL AIR CAN GET INTO THE AREA...TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID PRECIP. SO FOR NOW...WILL NOT MENTION...ALTHOUGH AN EXTREMELY BRIEF AND NON CONSEQUENTIAL MIX COULD OCCUR OVER THE WEST AT THE TAIL END. MODELS ARE FAST ENOUGH PUSHING PRECIP OUT OF HERE BY 12Z MONDAY...THAT WE WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS IN THE MORNING. BEYOND MONDAY...FEW IF ANY CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. MODELS STILL ADVERTISE A LATE WEEK CHANCE OF RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AS IT SEEMS THE MODELS HAVE NOT LOCKED IN TO A CONSISTENT SIGNAL. THUS OUR LOW POPS LOOK GOOD. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TODAY...WENT AT OR JUST BELOW MOS...BASED ON CLOUDS...EXPECTED SFC ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE RAIN. PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. $$ CN/MTF ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 940 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006 .SHORT TERM... HV BEEN WATCHING RADAR AND SFC DEWPTS THIS EVNG. CRRNTLY...SWATH OF RAIN ACRS SRN CWFA...CHO-EZF...APPRS TO BE SHUNTED EWD BY SFC RDGG. FEW ECHOES MAKING IT NWD ALNG/W OF BLURDG. INFLUENCE OF HIPRES... CNTRD OVR SRN NEW ENGLND...FELT DWN ERN SEABRD...HOLDING OFF RAFL. HWVR...W/ GOOD THTE ADVCTN...THINK THAT WL BE SPREADING NWD NXT SVRL HRS. DEWPTS ACRS NRN CWFA UPR TEENS-MID 20S...SRN CWFA LWR 30S. ABV FRZG DEWPTS ALSO EVIDENT W OF APPLCHN RDGLN...IN WVA. THUS...WK CAD AND DEWPT DEPRESSIONS/WET BULB TEMPS CUD COMBINE TO CREATE A FZRA ISSUE FRTHR E THAN CRRNTLY ADVERTISED. 00Z SNDGS FM RNK/GSO DEPICT A CLASSIC FZRA SETUP. IAD RAOB REVEALS ATMOS HAS A BIT OF MSTNG TO UNDERGO...THO SATD ARND H8. LOOKING AT DRY AIR BLO THAT...IT REINFORCES MY CONCERN FOR FZRA IN DC WRN/NWRN BURBS. WUD NOT BE AS CONCERNED IN THE S IF IT WERENT FOR THE RNK SNDG. LTST RUC AND NAM KEEP LLVL COLD AIR TRAPPED IN SHEN VLY ONLY...IN LINE W/ GOING ADVSRY. LAMP PLOTS CONCUR AS WELL. PAVEMENT/GRND TEMP ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED...WHICH ARE ABV FRZG ATTM. AND...RA JUST STARTED HERE AT LWX W/ SFC TEMP 38F. IT WL BE REAL CLOSE...BUT BASED ON CRRNT EVIDENCE...WL HOLD W/ STATUS QUO...BASED UPON WARMTH ALFT MIXING DWN ONCE STDY RAFL REACHES DC/BALT. MOREOVER...UPON TAKING A WIDER RADAR VIEW...ONCE PCPN IN ASSOC W/ NOSE OF THTE RDG PUSHES NWD...NOT A LOT OF PCPN PRESENT ATTM ACRS SRN VA. SO...W/ CHG WORDING FM DEF TO PDS. TEMPS LOOK GOOD...AND WL RISE SLGTLY ONCE WET BULB VALUES HV BEEN ATTAINED. OF COURSE...WL CONT TO MONITOR. && .AVIATION...CONDS WL DETERIORATE TO MVFR...W/ IFR VSBYS AFTR MIDNGT. WNDS WL BE LGT...ATTAINING NWLY TRAG ONCE WV SNEAKS BY AREA...WHICH WL BE LT MON AFTN. && .MARINE...WNDS 10-15 KT ATTM. LLJ LIKELY TO REMAIN ELEVATED W/ STBL SFC CONDS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... MSAS SFC ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER MS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM. A GOOD DEAL OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE HAS ALREADY MOVED NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER INTO TN/KY AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN VA. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM PROJECT THAT THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY EVENING. GOOD TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEX WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 17Z MONDAY. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SFC ACROSS THIS AREA MONDAY DURING THE LATE MORNING...RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH WET BULB EFFECT KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN LOWER SOUTHERN MD...AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AVIATION... MVFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER 00Z AT CHO AND AFTER 02Z AT IAD/DCA/MRB/BWI/MTN. IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR VSBYS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z MONDAY. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... OTHER THAN A TRANSIENT SHOT OF SEASONABLE WEATHER ON WED INTO THU... WINTER CONTINUES TO BE ON WINTER BREAK MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES. THE COLDEST AIR FROM THE POLAR VORTEX IS OVER RUSSIA WHERE THE ARE DEALING WITH EXTRAORDINARILY COLD AIR. OUR WINTERLESS MID WINTER SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ABATING AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF JANUARY...AGAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AND THU OF THIS WEEK. JANUARY SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE FINISHING IN THE TOP 20 WARMEST JANUARYS ON RECORD FOR THE REGION...AND WILL LIKELY BE A TOP 10 RECORD. CURRENTLY JANUARY IN WASHINGTON IS THE SEVENTH WARMEST AND BALTIMORE THE EIGHTH WARMEST ON RECORD. RECORDS DATE BACK TO THE LATE 1800S. THOSE STATISTICS ARE FOR THE PERIOD JAN 1 THRU JAN 21. BOTH CITIES ARE ABOUT THE WARMEST EARLY AND MIDDLE JANUARY SINCE 1998... WITH WASHINGTON SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 1998 AND BALTIMORE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN 1998. THAT SAID...BY MON NIGHT THE FRONTAL PRECIP FROM MON SHOULD BE OFF TO OUR SE...WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNSH IN THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SETTLED WEATHER TUE MORN. TUE EVE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHED AND CROSSES THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THAT PROB WILL NOT BRING ANY PRECIP TO MOST OF THE FA...NOT ENUF MOISTURE. HOWEVER UPSLOPE SHSN IN THE MTNS WILL START AFTER FROPA AS GOOD COLD ADVCTN WORKS IN OVER THE AREA. WED 850MB TMPS DROP TO ABOUT -10C WHICH WILL DROP THE REGION DOWN TO...OR JUST A BIT BELOW... CLIMO NORMS WED INTO THU. AFTER THAT HIGH PRES MOVES IN THROUGH FRI. NEXT STORMINESS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SAT AND SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER LOW PASSES TO OUR N WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. MARINE... WINDS AHEAD OF THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 10 TO 15 KT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR MDZ002-003 FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY. VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR VAZ021-025>031 FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY. WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR WVZ048>055 FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HTS PREV DISCUSSION...SMITH/STRONG md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 356 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 .DISCUSSION... COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. WARM FRONT HAS WIGGLED ITS WAY NORTHWEST...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF NATCHEZ TO VAUGHAN TO EUPORA. EAST OF THE BOUNDARY... DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE LOW/MID 60S WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. THIS HAS LED TO MORE INSTABILITY THAN FIRST ANTICIPATED. TODAY'S SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE NOT ACCURATELY DEPICTING CURRENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND HAVE RELIED ON OBS AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TONIGHT...COUPLED ULJ STRUCTURE WHICH HAS FOSTERED THE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT RAINS OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS EVENING AS UPPER DISTURBANCE PIVOTS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. AS IT PIVOTS...WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMNTS OVER EXTREME SE ARK...EXTREME NE LA AND NW MS WILL APPROACH 3 INCHES (POSSIBLY EXCEED IN A FEW SPOTS). THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING ROUGHLY FROM GRENADA TO VICKSBURG TO JUST EAST OF ALEXANDRIA LA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S. A CAP DOES EXIST ~750MB AND WILL REQUIRE THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE TO WEAKEN IT COMPLETELY. IN FACT...TSRA HAVE ALREADY ERUPTED THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN ZONES AND CAP WILL NOT PLAY MUCH OF A PROHIBITIVE FACTOR. INSTABILITY WISE...LIS AND SHOWALTERS ARE WEAKLY NEGATIVE...700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7 C/KM RANGE AND MUCAPE RANGING FROM 700 J/KG IN THE NORTHEAST TO 1500 J/KG IN THE SOUTH. WITH 0-6KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40KTS AND 0-1KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS...AM BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. GENERALLY SPEAKING AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PKWY CORRIDOR WILL BE PRONE TO SVR WX THIS EVENING... AND HAVE UPDATED HWO TO ADD RISK OF TORNADOES. HAVE KEPT COVERAGE ISOLATED ATTM...BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE TO SCT IN SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES (ROUGHLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR). WARM FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO COLD FRONT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND BEGIN SHIFT TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TAP ALL NIGHT. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED SLOWER NAM PROGRESSIVE OF THE COLD FRONT INTO TOMORROW. LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST BEST POPS IN THE EAST...TAPERING OFF QUICKLY TO THE WEST. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH POST FRONTAL AND DROP DURING THE DAY IN THE EAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S BY AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING WILL BEGIN AND LOWS WILL DROP TO SEASONAL LEVELS...IN THE 30S./GAGAN/ LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THIS RUN. STILL DRY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHEAST...THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AGAIN THE EUROPEAN AND GFS DIFFER IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS AGREE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA AS THE SYSTEMS MOVES EAST. THE GFS HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE EUROPEAN...LIFTING THE WAVE OUT FASTER...INSTEAD OF THE EASTWARD TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS. GFS WAS STARTING TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND AND BACKED OFF ON RAIN FOR THURSDAY...SO LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED RAIN. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE STILL WEAK TO MARGINAL. 0-6 KM SHEAR WAS LESS TODAY...BUT STILL OK...WILL STILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY THOUGH. LOOKING FOR MORE WARM ADVECTION TYPE SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NOW LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER RAIN DAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES... MODELS SUGGEST A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH INTO THE THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE BEST ACTIVITY MAY BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. MODEL QPF IS BEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND SHEAR ESTIMATES FROM THE SOUNDINGS ARE 40KTS PLUS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE NEAR 7 C/KM EVERYWHERE...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER VALUES WERE OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE ALSO SEEMS TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE DELTA EARLY SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME GOOD QPF AMOUNTS...CONTINUING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MAINTAIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. THE SURFACE LOWS MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE AREA GETS A SHORT BREAK MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT REALLY LOOKING FOR MUCH COLD AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA WARM EACH RUN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WARM ADVECTION MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH THE BEST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANYWAY WILL STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES ON TEMPS AND POPS. NOT QUITE READY TO GO WITH LOWER 70S OVER THE SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUDS MOVING IN AROUND WEDNESDAY. CROSS SECTION SHOW SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. DID NOT WANT TO MAKE THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY...SO BACKED ON SOME TO KEEP THE AREA PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MADE SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS...OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM: GAGAN LONG TERM: 07 ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 800 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 .DISCUSSION... STRATUS MOVING IN A LITTLE FASTER SO WILL MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO HANDLE THE EARLIER ARRIVAL. ALSO PUT A MENTION OF FOG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRATUS. NOT EXPECTING A DENSE FOG...BUT VISIBILITIES MAY DROP AS LOW AS 2 MILES OVERNIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER A BIT. PC && .PREV DISCUSSION... 305 PM CST SUN... LOW STRATUS JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATED OVER NEBRASKA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE STRATUS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT OVER IOWA...BUT IS DISSIPATING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING...WHATS LEFT OF THE STRATUS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK TONIGHT. SO DO NOT EXPECT A STRONG PUSH OF DRY AIR INTO THE AREA...THEREFORE AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES CLEAR. THE CHANCE FOR CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ALSO PLAY HAVOC WITH THE MIN TEMP FORECAST. IF SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG...THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN FORECAST. THIS HAS A CHANCE OF HAPPENING ALONG THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER. ON THE OTHER HAND...LOCATIONS WHICH DO NOT CLEAR AND WHICH DO NOT HAVE LOWER DEW POINTS ADVECT IN...WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DROPPING. NAM/GFS AGREE ON BRINGING THE TAIL-END OF A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI ON MONDAY...AS A SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...LEAVING A MODEST WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MEANS AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES OVER TODAY. ANOTHER SO CALLED COLD FRONT WILL GLANCE PAST THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING THE WIND. THIS MEANS EVEN WARMER TEMPS ON TUESDAY. NRR FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE UP COMING WORK WEEK A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE THE LEFT OVERS FROM A CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL FORM OVER THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER MONDAY. 12Z GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION ADVERTISES THAT A SECOND SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY FOUND OVER THE PACIFIC AROUND 170W...WILL OPEN UP THE CUTOFF AND KICK IT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL MAKE MOISTURE SCARCE. DESPITE THE GFS SOLUTION CONVERGING TOWARD THE ECMWF...THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A SPREAD IN THE WAVES PROJECTED PATH...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION. BOTH SCENARIOS WOULD LEAVE EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY. OPTED TO ADD ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THURSDAY DAY AND NIGHT THOUGH...DUE TO THE SPREAD IN THE PROJECTED PATH AND MOISTURE QUESTION. THE SECOND WAVE IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE FIRST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY. POTENTIAL IS MUCH BETTER FOR ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND WAVE AS THERE WONT BE A PRECEDING SURFACE HIGH TO BLOCK THE GULF MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VARIABILITY OF THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT...AND THE SPEED WITH WHICH THESE WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SECOND WAVE IS LOW. THEREFORE I HAVE ADDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO SATURDAY AT THIS TIME. CUTTER 325 AM SUN... GOING BALD TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE STRATUS CLOUDINESS. MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB WITH THESE CLOUDS THE LAST 2 DAYS. BEST TOOL TO USE IS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GO WITH THE TREND. UNFORTUNATELY THICK DECK OF CIRRUS OBSCURES THE LOW CLOUDS. HAVE NOTICED THAT BOTH STJ AND UIN HAVE LOST THEIR STRATUS CEILING. BELIEVE THE STRATUS CLOUDINESS IS NOW FLOWING WITH THE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELD AND HEADING NORTH NOW. WILL USE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO MARK THE BACK EDGE OF CLEARING LOW CLOUDS. RUC/NAM MOVE THIS RIDGE AXIS INTO SOUTHERN IA BY 18Z. HOWEVER...EVEN AFTER GETTING RID OF THE STRATUS DECK THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS TO DEAL WITH ALL DAY. THIS CLOUD COVER IS DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE WHICH RUNS FM CNTRL NM INTO NORTHWEST MEX. NOW APPEARS THAT THE FRONTOGENIC FORCING WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA SO WILL FORECAST AREA DRY TODAY/TONIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK HIGHS TODAY BASED UPON NEARLY OPAQUE HIGH CLOUDINESS AND NEUTRAL ADVECTION. STILL WE SHOULD END UP WARMER THAN NORMAL. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. NO DRYING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SO TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS OR LOWER. NAM SOUNDINGS AND TIME CROSS SECTION HINT AT EITHER FOG OR STRATUS FORMING LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN BROKEN UPSTREAM STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT CAN SEE WHY MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS. WILL MENTION FOG AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN ZONES FOR TONIGHT. RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR CWA THROUGH MID WEEK WITH EVOLUTION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS REACHING AS FAR EAST AS MO. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL BUMP UP MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A CUT OFF LOW FORMING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK OVER SOUTHERN CA/NORTHWEST MEXICO. LATEST PROGS SHOW A GOOD SIZE KICKED BUT NOT READY TO JUMP ON IT JUST YET. MJ && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 305 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 .DISCUSSION... LOW STRATUS JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATED OVER NEBRASKA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE STRATUS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT OVER IOWA...BUT IS DISSIPATING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING...WHATS LEFT OF THE STRATUS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK TONIGHT. SO DO NOT EXPECT A STRONG PUSH OF DRY AIR INTO THE AREA...THEREFORE AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES CLEAR. THE CHANCE FOR CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ALSO PLAY HAVOC WITH THE MIN TEMP FORECAST. IF SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG...THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN FORECAST. THIS HAS A CHANCE OF HAPPENING ALONG THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER. ON THE OTHER HAND...LOCATIONS WHICH DO NOT CLEAR AND WHICH DO NOT HAVE LOWER DEW POINTS ADVECT IN...WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DROPPING. NAM/GFS AGREE ON BRINGING THE TAIL-END OF A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI ON MONDAY...AS A SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...LEAVING A MODEST WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MEANS AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES OVER TODAY. ANOTHER SO CALLED COLD FRONT WILL GLANCE PAST THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING THE WIND. THIS MEANS EVEN WARMER TEMPS ON TUESDAY. NRR FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE UP COMING WORK WEEK A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE THE LEFT OVERS FROM A CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL FORM OVER THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER MONDAY. 12Z GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION ADVERTISES THAT A SECOND SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY FOUND OVER THE PACIFIC AROUND 170W...WILL OPEN UP THE CUTOFF AND KICK IT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL MAKE MOISTURE SCARCE. DESPITE THE GFS SOLUTION CONVERGING TOWARD THE ECMWF...THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A SPREAD IN THE WAVES PROJECTED PATH...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION. BOTH SCENARIOS WOULD LEAVE EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY. OPTED TO ADD ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THURSDAY DAY AND NIGHT THOUGH...DUE TO THE SPREAD IN THE PROJECTED PATH AND MOISTURE QUESTION. THE SECOND WAVE IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE FIRST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY. POTENTIAL IS MUCH BETTER FOR ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND WAVE AS THERE WONT BE A PRECEDING SURFACE HIGH TO BLOCK THE GULF MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VARIABILITY OF THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT...AND THE SPEED WITH WHICH THESE WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SECOND WAVE IS LOW. THEREFORE I HAVE ADDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO SATURDAY AT THIS TIME. CUTTER && .PREV DISCUSSION... 325 AM SUN... GOING BALD TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE STRATUS CLOUDINESS. MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB WITH THESE CLOUDS THE LAST 2 DAYS. BEST TOOL TO USE IS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GO WITH THE TREND. UNFORTUNATELY THICK DECK OF CIRRUS OBSCURES THE LOW CLOUDS. HAVE NOTICED THAT BOTH STJ AND UIN HAVE LOST THEIR STRATUS CEILING. BELIEVE THE STRATUS CLOUDINESS IS NOW FLOWING WITH THE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELD AND HEADING NORTH NOW. WILL USE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO MARK THE BACK EDGE OF CLEARING LOW CLOUDS. RUC/NAM MOVE THIS RIDGE AXIS INTO SOUTHERN IA BY 18Z. HOWEVER...EVEN AFTER GETTING RID OF THE STRATUS DECK THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS TO DEAL WITH ALL DAY. THIS CLOUD COVER IS DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE WHICH RUNS FM CNTRL NM INTO NORTHWEST MEX. NOW APPEARS THAT THE FRONTOGENIC FORCING WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA SO WILL FORECAST AREA DRY TODAY/TONIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK HIGHS TODAY BASED UPON NEARLY OPAQUE HIGH CLOUDINESS AND NEUTRAL ADVECTION. STILL WE SHOULD END UP WARMER THAN NORMAL. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. NO DRYING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SO TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS OR LOWER. NAM SOUNDINGS AND TIME CROSS SECTION HINT AT EITHER FOG OR STRATUS FORMING LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN BROKEN UPSTREAM STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT CAN SEE WHY MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS. WILL MENTION FOG AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN ZONES FOR TONIGHT. RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR CWA THROUGH MID WEEK WITH EVOLUTION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS REACHING AS FAR EAST AS MO. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL BUMP UP MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A CUT OFF LOW FORMING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK OVER SOUTHERN CA/NORTHWEST MEXICO. LATEST PROGS SHOW A GOOD SIZE KICKED BUT NOT READY TO JUMP ON IT JUST YET. MJ && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 831 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)... MNLY RA ADVANCING NNE ACRS SRN OH TWD OUR AREA. TEMPS SEEMED TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY WHILE DWPTS ROSE AS PRECIP STARTED FOR PLACES IN SRN OH. WL KP ADVSRY GOING DUE TO SOME PLACES LIKE MFD WITH TEMPS ALREADY AT OR WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF FREEZING PT. XPCT SOME OUTLYING SPOTS TO AT LEAST BE THIS CLD. WRM LYR STARTING JUST ABV SFC UP TO NR 5K FT WITH TEMPS PEAKING 4 OR 5 DEG C. THIS PROB REASON FOR TEMPS NOT FALLING WITH PRECIP START SINCE RAIN REACHING GND PROB IN 35 TO 40 DEG RANGE SO TENDING TO HOLD TEMPS IN PLACE EVEN WITH EVAP GOING ON. WITH MNN AT 33 ALSO WL ADD A FEW MORE CO'S ONTO WRN END OF ADVSRY AREA. && .PREV SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... INVERTED TROF MOVING UP...THE 12Z MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE GETS AND KEEPS IT WARM. MODEL RUNS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH MORE WITH NAM AND THAT SEEMS TO FIT THE RADAR ATTM. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MOST OF TONIGHT...SOME SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHWEST PA. WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 32F AND DEW POINTS LOW. THE RRQ OF THE JET SHOULD HELP WITH THE DYNAMICS. WE SHOULD NOT GET A LOT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING BUT ENOUGH TO GET SOME LOCATIONS NEAR 32F FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN. AS THE PCPN STARTS DEW POINTS SHOULD COME UP AND TEMPERATAURES JUST DROP A LITTLE. PCPN AMOUNTS INCLUDING RAIN SHOULD BE .10 OR LESS. THE GROUND IS NOT THAT WARM SO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. THIS IS QUICK SHOT OF PCPN AND THE WORSE SHOULD BE OVER BY 12Z. GUID MIN TEMPS A LITTLE TOO COOL WITH THE CLOUD COVER...RAISED SOME. LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE LIKE ERIE AND CLE WILL HAVE A SE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THAT MIGHT HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER...SOME SPOTS WILL BE NEAR 32 OR 31F. AMOUNTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE MAY JUST APPROACH .01 OR .02 THUS WITH IT BEING LIGHT AND UNCERTAIN WHETHER IT WILL EVEN MAKE IT...NO ADVISORY ALONG THE LAKESHORE. RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MODELS AGREE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR. 850 MB WINDS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS AND WITH THE LAPSE RATES BECOMING UNSTABLE...NOT MUCH SHEAR AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM BUFKIT HAD 40 KNOTS...THE LOW SEEMS FAR ENOUGH NORTH...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOME QUITE STONG BY 18Z TUE. GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE SEEM VERY REASONABLE...ATTM IT WOULD JUST BE AN ADVISORY...DOESN'T SEEM STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND WATCH ATTM. SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE APPROACHES 13C. WITH THE NW FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE INLAND NW PA. A S/WV FOR WEDNESDAY COULD CAUSE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOW BELT OF OHIO. THIS IS A MARGINAL EVENT WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE. NEXT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND IF HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BUILDING IT IN SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND DIGEX. ATTM WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING AND AIRMASS DRYING OUT MAY JUST LEAVE SOME FLURRIES IN NW PA FOR THURSDAY AM. THE RIDGE STAYS IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SATURDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THAT. MAY HAVE A 20 POP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A 40-50% CHANCE OF RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IT COULD CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SO FAR OUT...IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN THE PCPN MAY NOT SWITCH OVER SO FAST...NO CHANGEOVER ATTM. GUID TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY BUT MAY BE A LITTLE COOL THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. GUID LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS IN THE EASTERN AREAS MIGHT BE TOO HIGH WITH THE FORECAST OF SOME SNOW COVER AND WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE I.E. LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MUCH CLOUDINESS...LOWERED A LITTLE. && .AVIATION(00Z-24Z)... CURRENTLY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...AND AN INVERTED TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. RAIN SHIELD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS MADE IT TO THE OHIO RIVER. ALL 3 MODELS (ETA...GFS...AND RUC) MOVE THE LOW INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY 12Z. CURRENT 3 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS HAVE A 3 MB BULLSEYE OVER CENTRAL TN WHICH SEEMS RIGHT ON TRACK FOR THE MODELS. EXPECT RAIN SHIELD TO PUSH OVER NORTHEAST OHIO BY 12Z. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL START AS RAIN THEN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AS SFC TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING. THE OVERRIDING WARM AIR WILL PUSH 2K FOOT TEMPS TO AROUND 4 DEGREES C...SO LAYER TOO WARM FOR SNOW REGARDLESS OF SFC TEMPS. DONT EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REACH NW OHIO. FOR THE NORTHERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES LIKE CLE AND ERIE THEY WILL BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THE PRECIP AND WILL PROBABLY ONLY GET A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. FOR LOCATIONS LIKE MFD...CAK AND YNG COULD GET AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. LUCKILY SYSTEM MOVING SO FAST (LOW FORECAST TO REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 18Z) FREEZING PRECIP WILL BE SHORT LIVED. EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z -15Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...FZRA ADVISORY 04Z-12Z MON FOR OHZ020>023-029>033-036-037- 038-047. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/ADAMS LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...DJB oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 650 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006 .AVIATION(00Z-24Z)... CURRENTLY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...AND AN INVERTED TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. RAIN SHIELD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS MADE IT TO THE OHIO RIVER. ALL 3 MODELS (ETA...GFS...AND RUC) MOVE THE LOW INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY 12Z. CURRENT 3 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS HAVE A 3 MB BULLSEYE OVER CENTRAL TN WHICH SEEMS RIGHT ON TRACK FOR THE MODELS. EXPECT RAIN SHIELD TO PUSH OVER NORTHEAST OHIO BY 12Z. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL START AS RAIN THEN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AS SFC TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING. THE OVERRIDING WARM AIR WILL PUSH 2K FOOT TEMPS TO AROUND 4 DEGREES C...SO LAYER TOO WARM FOR SNOW REGARDLESS OF SFC TEMPS. DONT EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REACH NW OHIO. FOR THE NORTHERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES LIKE CLE AND ERIE THEY WILL BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THE PRECIP AND WILL PROBABLY ONLY GET A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. FOR LOCATIONS LIKE MFD...CAK AND YNG COULD GET AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. LUCKILY SYSTEM MOVING SO FAST (LOW FORECAST TO REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 18Z) FREEZING PRECIP WILL BE SHORT LIVED. EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z -15Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... INVERTED TROF MOVING UP...THE 12Z MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE GETS AND KEEPS IT WARM. MODEL RUNS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH MORE WITH NAM AND THAT SEEMS TO FIT THE RADAR ATTM. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MOST OF TONIGHT...SOME SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHWEST PA. WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 32F AND DEW POINTS LOW. THE RRQ OF THE JET SHOULD HELP WITH THE DYNAMICS. WE SHOULD NOT GET A LOT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING BUT ENOUGH TO GET SOME LOCATIONS NEAR 32F FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN. AS THE PCPN STARTS DEW POINTS SHOULD COME UP AND TEMPERATAURES JUST DROP A LITTLE. PCPN AMOUNTS INCLUDING RAIN SHOULD BE .10 OR LESS. THE GROUND IS NOT THAT WARM SO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. THIS IS QUICK SHOT OF PCPN AND THE WORSE SHOULD BE OVER BY 12Z. GUID MIN TEMPS A LITTLE TOO COOL WITH THE CLOUD COVER...RAISED SOME. LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE LIKE ERIE AND CLE WILL HAVE A SE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THAT MIGHT HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER...SOME SPOTS WILL BE NEAR 32 OR 31F. AMOUNTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE MAY JUST APPROACH .01 OR .02 THUS WITH IT BEING LIGHT AND UNCERTAIN WHETHER IT WILL EVEN MAKE IT...NO ADVISORY ALONG THE LAKESHORE. RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MODELS AGREE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR. 850 MB WINDS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS AND WITH THE LAPSE RATES BECOMING UNSTABLE...NOT MUCH SHEAR AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM BUFKIT HAD 40 KNOTS...THE LOW SEEMS FAR ENOUGH NORTH...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOME QUITE STONG BY 18Z TUE. GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE SEEM VERY REASONABLE...ATTM IT WOULD JUST BE AN ADVISORY...DOESN'T SEEM STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND WATCH ATTM. SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE APPROACHES 13C. WITH THE NW FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE INLAND NW PA. A S/WV FOR WEDNESDAY COULD CAUSE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOW BELT OF OHIO. THIS IS A MARGINAL EVENT WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE. NEXT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND IF HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BUILDING IT IN SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND DIGEX. ATTM WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING AND AIRMASS DRYING OUT MAY JUST LEAVE SOME FLURRIES IN NW PA FOR THURSDAY AM. THE RIDGE STAYS IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SATURDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THAT. MAY HAVE A 20 POP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A 40-50% CHANCE OF RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IT COULD CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SO FAR OUT...IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN THE PCPN MAY NOT SWITCH OVER SO FAST...NO CHANGEOVER ATTM. GUID TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY BUT MAY BE A LITTLE COOL THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. GUID LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS IN THE EASTERN AREAS MIGHT BE TOO HIGH WITH THE FORECAST OF SOME SNOW COVER AND WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE I.E. LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MUCH CLOUDINESS...LOWERED A LITTLE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 04Z-12Z MONDAY OHZ020>023-029>033-038-047. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...DJB oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 932 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 .UPDATE... RAIN HAS COMPLETELY MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO VACATE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. IF RUC IS CORRECT THEY MAY NOT CLEAR WESTERN ARKANSAS UNTIL AFTER 12Z. AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. THE CLOUDS ARE THE QUESTIONABLE FACTOR AT THIS TIME... AND FOR THAT REASON WILL NOT ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE MAINLY TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING AND ANY REMAINING PRECIP. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 5 LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 6 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1000 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2006 .DISCUSSION...LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDDLE TN WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TN AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COUNTIES AT MID MORNING. HIGH POPS LOOK GOOD FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL ADD CHANCE OF THUNDER WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHEAST AS ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTHEAST. LATEST RUC DATA SHOWING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING NORTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND LIFT INCREASING LATE MORNING. HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN PLATEAU AREAS AND POSSIBLY WESTERN EDGES OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY DURING THE DAY TODAY. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ONLY VERY SLOWLY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN WHICH IS HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST. UPDATE OUT SOON TO ADD THUNDER. && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TD tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 952 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 .UPDATE...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING SOUTH TEXAS. BASED ON IR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA...APPEARS BEST ENERGY IS LEAVING THE CWFA. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC DATA IS STILL SHOWING SOME RESPECTABLE Q-G CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTAIL UNTIL THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER AND MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN. ISENTROPIC PATTERN REALLY DIMINISHES DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT THAT RAIN WILL HAVE TO BE GENERATED BY LARGE-SCALE LIFT. THUS...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND DECREASE THEM FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ANY REMNANT RAIN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE AND THUS DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PRECIP. MAX TEMP FORECAST STILL SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN LARGE MASS OF CLOUDS AND WARMING WILL BE VERY SLOW FOR THE AFTERNOON. GRIDDED AND ZFP HAS BEEN SENT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 243 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006) SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...COOL...CLOUDY AND WET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF S TX. A SFC LOW DVLPG ALONG THE COAST WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS IT RIDES NE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST PER SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE SUBTROP JET NOSING NE...PLACING THE FAVORED LFQ ACROSS S TX BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINING WITH AFOREMENTIONED DYNAMICS WARRANTS THE CHC POPS W TO CATEGORICAL NE WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE DUE TO THE SFC LOW. AS THE SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXIT TO THE NE THRU THE AFTERNOON...RE-INFORCING HIGH PRESSURE/CAA WL FILTER ACROSS S TX IN ITS WAKE...WITH DECREASING RAIN CHCS FROM W TO NE. ETA KEEPS MOISTURE/CLOUDS IN PLACE THRU MONDAY WHILE THE GFS IS LESS AGRESSIVE WITH THE CLOUD COVER BUT DOES INCREASE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS MAKES MON TEMPS A BIT TRICKY. ETA IS COOLER WITH THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THE GFS IS WARMER AT THE SFC BUT DOES SHOWS A COOLING TREND THROUGHOUT THE AIR COLUMN ON MON. GENERALLY WENT AT OR BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TODAY THRU MON. AS FOR SFC WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT/MONDAY...FEEL THE MODELS ARE TOO LOW GIVEN THE TIGHT GRADIENT THAT IS PROGD BY BOTH THE ETA AND GFS AND THE FCSTD MOD TO STRONG BDRY LYR WINDS. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IN PLACE. MARINE...WINDS HAVE LOWERED TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK TO MODERATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A SFC LOW RIDES NE ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL MEAN WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM E TO S THEN TO THE N TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT/RE-INFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE AS WELL TONIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z WITH LOW CIGS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS. ISOL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT/RE-INFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS S TX THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHCS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM W TO NE WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABV 12KFT. LONG-TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...A RDG AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SFC TO THE UPR LVLS WL PREVAIL THROUGH WED ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER CLOUD CVR IS NOT EXPECTED TO TOTALLY ERODE ESPECIALLY THE SRN AND WRN AREAS WHERE MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE WL SPILL OVER THE WK RDG AXIS ALOFT. TEMPS WL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH WED. BEYOND WED THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLNS IS WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE CONSENSUS SOLN CONTINUES TO PROG THIS UPR LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THU AND FRI. THE GFS REMAINS INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND SO WL NOT BITE ON ITS LATEST ITERATION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED NLY TRACK...WL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC RANGE FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI TIMEFRAME. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY SAT BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW RIGHT NOW. SO WL KEEP US DRY FOR NOW WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND. && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ GW/86...SHORT-TERM JD/91...LONG-TERM tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 226 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006 .SHORT TERM...MOST OF THE PARAMETERS IN PLACE LAST NIGHT FOR A DECENT DENSE FOG EVENT ARE WITH US ONCE AGAIN...BUT SLIGHT VARIATIONS HAVE PREVENTED ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. COMPLEX SCENARIO WITH ADVECTION FOG OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES WHERE INVERTED TROUGH IS ALLOWING NORTHEAST FLOW TO ADVECT SEA FOG ONSHORE LIMITING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 3/4 OF A MILE AT TIMES. FURTHER SOUTH AND INLAND...RADIATION PROCESSES DOMINATE AND SOME FACTORS ARE WORKING AGAINST IT. THE FIRST OF THESE IS MID LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENCED BY BKN DECK AT 5K OVER A WIDE EXPANSE OF THE FLORIDA PORTION WHICH IS NOT ALLOWING FOR THE RAPID COOL DOWN SEEN LAST NIGHT. IN ADDITION...RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES 975MB WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY KEEP VISIBILITY MORE IN THE BR RANGE THROUGH DAYBREAK. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN WARM SECTOR AS INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT MIXES IN SOME DRIER AIR. GFS IS SHOWING A SLUG OF MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY RAPIDLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND PRODUCES SOME PRECIP ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ANYTIME WE GET TEMPS CLOSE TO 80 THIS TIME OF YEAR...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY AND WITHOUT FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE...CANNOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED POPS AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TIMING OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING BUT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE TROUGH AND CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER WITH THE POPS. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND WHICH BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES RIGHT AT 00Z AND THEN QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH 06Z. ENOUGH MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN TO WARRANT HIGH END SCATTERED POPS...BUT CONVERGENCE IS LACKING AND MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM REMAINS WELL BACK OF FRONTAL BAND OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL THEREFORE REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AS FRONT SLIDES OVER THE FLORIDA PORTION WHERE GRIDS WILL ONLY CARRY 30% AT BEST. MAIN INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE MODELS OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON IN WARM SECTOR WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY. CAPE QUICKLY DECREASES AFTER SUNSET AND WILL ONLY CARRY ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH 06Z AND THEN REVERT BACK TO SHOWERS. FRONT CLEARS ON TUESDAY EVENING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PENINSULAR FLOW INITIALLY WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION...BUT WITH PARENT HIGH DISPLACED SO FAR WEST...EXPECT COOL DOWN ONLY TO AROUND CLIMO. LOW TEMPERATURES FROM GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY AND WILL ADJUST GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. .LONG TERM...NO EARTH SHATTERING CHANGES TO MOST RECENT MEX AND HAVE GENERALLY BLENDED WITH FORECAST ALREADY IN PLACE. NEXT FRONT NOT TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL NEXT MONDAY AND SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TONIGHTS WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. && .MARINE...A Q-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE NRN MARINE ZONES AT THIS TIME WITH A NE FLOW ~8-10 KT AT 41008 AND SE FLOW AT 41012. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 5 FT AT BOTH BUOYS AND MAIN COMPONENT OF SEAS IS A 10 SECOND SWELL AROUND 3-4 FT. BASED ON BUOY TRENDS...WE MAY BE SEEING THE PEAK IN THE SWELL HEIGHTS AT THIS TIME OR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HRS. AS FRONT LIFTS NWD...INCREASING SLY FLOW OCCURS PUSHING UP WIND WAVE HEIGHTS ABOVE CURRENTLY OBSERVED VALUES. HEADLINES IN PLACE LOOK FINE WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. HAVE EXTENDED ADVISORY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS AGAIN TOO HIGH BY ABOUT 2 FT AT 41012 (ALTHOUGH VERY CLOSE AT 41008) AND SO HAVE CONSERVATIVELY TWEAKED HEIGHTS DOWN BY 10-15%. MAY TWEAK DOWN FURTHER WITH ADDITIONAL OBS THIS AM. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE...WINDS SHIFT TO NW UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS VEER FROM NLY WED TO ELY BY FRI AS HIGH TO OUR N SLIDES E. && .FIRE WEATHER...MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA ON WED WITH MIN RH AROUND 30% OVER FL ZONES. ANTICIPATE THAT A FIRE WX WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE FL ZONES LATER TODAY OR TUE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 74 55 68 40 / 40 50 10 0 SSI 73 57 68 43 / 30 40 30 0 JAX 77 58 71 43 / 20 30 30 0 SGJ 76 60 71 45 / 20 30 30 0 GNV 79 57 73 42 / 20 20 20 0 OCF 81 58 74 45 / 20 10 20 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FERNANDINA BEACH FL TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ PUBLIC...DEESE MARINE/FIRE WX...SHASHY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 225 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006 .DISCUSSION... STRATUS AND HAZE PUSHING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA ATTM. NEXT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND ACROSS NEBRASKA MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE LOW 30S WHERE STRATUS HAS MOVED IN...WITH THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES DROPPING INTO THE 20S BEFORE THE CLOUDS ROLLED IN. MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW LONG CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH WITH LIGHT SE WINDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE 500M LEVEL PER PROFILERS. 06Z RUC AND ETA12 LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST STRATUS IS IN PLACE UNTIL THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE CAN INCREASE WESTERLY FLOW AND BEGIN TO PUSH THE CLOUDS OUT. WILL HAVE CLOUD COVER INTO THE NOON HOUR...THEN BEGIN TO DRAW CLOUDS EASTWARD THROUGH 0Z. AS A RESULT...WESTERN ZONES MIGHT BE ABLE TO MAKE 50 AS SKIES CLEAR...BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK MID 40S. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT. TUES/WED STILL SHOWING A GOOD WARMUP AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TO AN UPPER RIDGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ETA IS A BIT WEAKER WITH THE RIDGING...KEEPS WINDS ALOFT A SMIDGE HIGHER....AND 850MB TEMPS HIGHER AND AS A RESULT GIVES WARMER SURFACE TEMPS. CURRENT GRIDS GENERALLY REFLECT A MIX TO 900MB WITH GFS PROFILE. FOR THURS...0Z GFS COMING AROUND TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF LIFTING THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INSTEAD OF PREVIOUS SOUTHERLY TRACK. THIS WOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN BRING IN DRIER AIR AROUND THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE CWA LATE THURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE STILL GIVING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH DIV Q AND DIFLUENCE ALOFT IN PLACE AS WELL AS ENOUGH TIME TO DRAW IN SOME INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. MIGHT BE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW ON THIS TRACK. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR FRI-SUN. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 67 ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 429 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006 .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT AT THE SURFACE...MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS IN BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY BEHIND WEAK TROUGH...QUICKLY GIVING WAY TONIGHT TO VERY BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. BUFKIT...BOTH FROM NAM AND GFS DATA...SUPPORTS GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON WITHIN THE MIXING LAYER BY LATE TONIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD INTO GALES THERE TUESDAY AS WELL. AT 500 MB...VORTICITY LOBE...READILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN WESTERN CANADIAN TROUGH SHOWN BY MODELS RACING SOUTHEAST AND DIGGING INTO LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE ALOFT RATHER LEAN TODAY AND NOT MUCH TONIGHT EITHER...WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MORE PLENTIFUL OVERALL ESPECIALLY NORTH. LITTLE TO NO OMEGA LIFT IN LOW TO MID LEVELS SEEN TODAY...BECOMING VERY MODESTLY BETTER LATE TONIGHT AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. LOW TO MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONVERGENCE BECOMES GOOD LATE TONIGHT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE BECOMES SLIGHT...WITH APPROACHING LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH APPROACH OF LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. ALSO...285K NAM/GFS SHOW GOOD SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT BUT GENERALLY HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. IN LIGHT OF PAUCITY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL HOLD OFF ON PRECIPITATION MENTION THROUGH TONIGHT...SUPPORTED BY MODEL LITTLE OR NO QPF. ENOUGH THINNING OF MID CLOUD CANOPY OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS...WITH LIGHT WI8NDS...HAS FAVORED FORMATION OF FOG. WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG UNTIL MID MORNING. && .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS AN ARCTIC SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A 120KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC DURING THE DAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ALL DAY WITH A NUMBER OF SURFACE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE FIRST ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT BRINGING THE REAL COLD PUSH AND WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND ONE FINAL PUSH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS SHOWING 850MB WINDS OF 50-60 KNOTS. MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD CLIMB TO ABOUT 7000 FEET AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS BY MID-MORNING...ALLOWING US TO TAP INTO STRONG WINDS OFF THE SURFACE. AM EXPECTING TO NEED AT LEAST A WIND ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH. WE MAY EVEN BE BORDERING ON NEEDING A HIGH WIND WARNING IF WE ARE ABLE TO BRING THE 50 KNOT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGEST FRONTAL PUSH SETTING UP FROM WISCONSIN...ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...TO NORTHERN INDIANA. THE WINDS APPEAR TO BE MORE PARALLEL TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REDUCING THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWN TO THE SURFACE...POSSIBLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL TO ACHIEVE THOSE 50 KNOT GUSTS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 3 G/KG. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL DOING A LOT OF BLOWING ...POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITIES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PICK UP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING OVER THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH RETURN FLOW NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL OPEN AND TRACK TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. 18Z/22 AND 00Z/23 GFS TOOK A BIG JUMP FROM THE 12Z SOLUTION TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY. HAVE CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT PASSES NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE NEED TO ADD POPS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM. && MARINE... WITH ARCTIC SURGE ON TUESDAY...MODELS STILL SUPPORT A TIGHTENING THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN BEHIND THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW VERY STRONG WINDS OFF THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN. GALES ARE EXPECTED ON ALL MARINE AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME CHANCE OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IN THE MAIN PRESSURE SURGE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUE. WITH THE BEST SURGE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...OR PERHAPS JUST PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT GALES WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 1151 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006 SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AN MVFR STRATUS DECK EXTENDS ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT HEADS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WANE. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW EASTWARD PUSH TO THE LOW CLOUDS. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM SATELLITE DATA AND THE 00Z NAM AND RUC MODEL RH PROGS...THE STRATUS SHOULD ADVANCE ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND FLINT AREA BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z. FROM SATELLITE...IT APPEARS THE MID AND HIGH DECK WILL EXIT TO THE EAST JUST PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW CLOUDS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT MBS. BASED ON 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GIVEN EXTRAPOLATION FROM SATELLITE...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT ARRIVE IN THE DETROIT AREA UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. THE ONSET OF MIXING AND BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PREVENT A SOLID BROKEN OR OVERCAST DECK FROM REACHING THE DETROIT AREA MONDAY MORNING. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...1 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT H TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...LHZ422...1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460...1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444...1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TU && $$ SHORT TERM...DWD LONG TERM....KAHL AVIATION...SC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE). mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 340 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006 .DISCUSSION... 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE UPR GRT LKS EMBEDDED WITHIN WNW POLAR JET STREAM FM SW CAN TO NEW ENGLAND...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LO MOVING INTO SE ONTARIO FM LK SUP. THIS SYS REMAINS CUTOFF FM DEEP MSTR BY ACTIVE SRN BRANCH ACRS THE SRN CONUS...AND DEEP ARCTIC REMAINS LOCKED UP WELL TO THE N IN CAN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW THERE. LIMITED DEEPER MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV/SFC LO HAS SHIFTED TO THE E... LEAVING LINGERING LO CLD ACRS THE FA. ALTHOUGH NW PUSH OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LO PRES TO THE E AND IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES RDG MOVING TOWARD WRN LK SUP IS NOT VERY STRG...00Z TAMDAR SDNG FM DLH/00Z RAOB FM INL INDICATE AIR MOVING INTO WRN LK SUP IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO GENERATE LES WITH TEMPS AS LO AS -13C OR SO WITHIN MOIST LYR OBSVD TO EXTEND UP TO H8-775. BUT INCOMING COLD AIR IS ON THE SHALLOW SIDE...WITH BOTH SDNGS SHOWING AN INVRN H925-9. EVEN SO...-SHSN HAVE BROKEN OUT OVER THE NW ZNS AS OF MIDNGT. SKIES CLR OVER NRN MN/FAR NW WI UNDER AND JUST W OF INCOMING RDG AXIS... AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BLO ZERO IN AREAS WHERE WINDS ARE LGT. BUT SW FLOW ALREADY NOTED OVER THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CAN ON THE BACK SIDE OF RDG/DOWNSTREAM OF NEXT SHRTWV PLOWING INTO WRN CAN FM THE PACIFIC. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH CLD NOTED OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE 00Z BIS SDNG...QUITE A BIT MORE WAD CLD EVIDENT ACRS SCNTRL CAN WHERE 00Z YQD SDNG IS MOIST UP TO H45. BUT ONLY PCPN FALLING EARLY THIS MRNG IS OVER NRN LK WINNIPEG AND FARTHER N. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY ARE LES TRENDS AND TEMPS. FOCUS FOR TNGT INTO WED SHIFTS TO IMPACT OF STRG PACIFIC SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO WRN CAN AND NEED FOR HEADLINES TO COVER EXPECTED STRG WINDS AND AT LEAST SOME LES/BLSN. FOR TDAY...SHRTWV/SFC LO NOW IMPACTING THE FA PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY E INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND WEAKEN...GIVING WAY TO RDG AXIS/ MID LVL DRY AIR UPSTREAM. LINGERING LES OVER THE KEEWENAW AND THE ERN ZNS SHOULD END THIS MRNG WITH ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF SFC RDG AXIS AND LLVL THERMAL TROF. LO INVRN HGT/MARGINAL INSTABILITY/LIMITED DURATION OF CAD AND QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS SHOULD LIMIT LES ACCUMULATIONS TO NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO. EXPECT SKIES EVERYWHERE TO BECOME PARTLY-MOSUNNY WITH APRCH/ARRIVAL OF RDG AXIS...BUT SOME MID/HI CLD NOW OVER SCNTRL CAN WL RETURN IN THE AFTN IN ADVANCE OF POTENT CLIPPER SHRTWV FCST TO DIG NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY 00Z. MIXING TO H925 AS OBSVD YDAY UPSTREAM AT BIS ON GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS TMAX CLOSER TO LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE. TNGT...STRG CLIPPER SHRTWV FCST TO DIG INTO ONTARIO BY 12Z TUE AND THEN QUEBEC TUE NGT. PER NCEP PREFERENCE...USED THE SOMEWHAT FARTHER N TRACK OF THE NAM/CNDN/UKMET MODELS FOR SFC LO TRACK THRU ONTARIO N OF LK SUP. GFS SHOWS SFC LO TRACKING ACRS THE NRN PART OF THE LK (EVEN THOUGH H5 FEATURES ARE QUITE SIMILAR BTWN THE MODELS). ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS COMMA TAIL DEEPER MSTR/UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING 120KT H3 JET MAX/SHARP DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC TRACKING ACRS THE FA DURING THE NGT. ALTHOUGH SYS IS CUTOFF FM ANY MSTR INFLOW...HAVE TO BELIEVE THESE DYNAMICS (RESULTING IN 200M 12HR H5 HGT FALL OVER NRN LK SUP BTWN 00Z-12Z TUE) WL SQUEEZE OUT MEASUREABLE PCPN OVER MUCH OF THE FA CONSIDERING THE MOIST PROFILE SHOWN ON THE 00Z YQD SDNG. H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE -7C RANGE... SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR ENHANCEMENT (CONSIDERING LK WATER TEMPS 3-4C). DESPITE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN SFC LO PLACEMENT...GFS/NAM ALSO SIMILAR IN SATURATING THE COLUMN OVER THE ERN ZNS TO A GREATER DEGREE. SO WL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE EXPOSED/UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE W FM ONTONAGON THRU THE KEWEENAW AND E OF MQT EVEN THOUGH PCPN MAY BE LIKELY ONLY WHEN THE DEEPER COMMA TAIL MSTR PASSES OVHD. JUST LO CHC POPS ACRS THE SCNTRL FARTHER FM CLIPPER TRACK AND WHERE FLOW WL BE DOWNSLOPING. NAM SHOWS H85 WNW WINDS INCRSG OVER 50KTS DURING THE NGT. ALTHOUGH SGNFT LLVL CAD APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO ABSENCE OF ARCTIC AIR IN USPTREAM AREAS...RELATIVELY WARM LLVLS ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUP INCRS LAPSE RATES ON FCST NAM SDNGS AND THE CHCS THE STRG MOMENTUM WL REACH THE SFC. SINCE ISALLOBARIC WIND ALSO FVRBLY ALIGNED WITH THE GRADIENT FLOW...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH INTO TUE NGT FOR THE EXPOSED COUNTIES OF THE NW AND E OF MQT. DON'T THINK LES AMTS WL GET TOO HEFTY WITH STRG WINDS POSSIBLY DISRUPTING BANDS AND H85 TEMPS FCST TO FALL NO LOWER THAN -12C OR -13C...BUT COMBINATION OF STRG WINDS AND LES/BLSN (EVEN IF INDIVIDUAL CRITERIA WL END UP BEING JUST ADVYS) COULD JUSTIFY A WATCH/WRNG ESPECIALLY IF SHARPER CYC FLOW (ON TUE/TUE NGT) CAN ACT AS AN ENHANCEMENT MECHANISM. TOYED WITH INCLUDING BARAGA/SRN CMX/ IRON/GOGEBIC/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES IN WINTER STORM WATCH AND INLAND ZNS IN HI WIND WATCH BUT 06Z NAM SHOWED WEAKER WINDS THAN 00Z RUN AND/OR WINDS A BIT TOO WNW. COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH. .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH LATE TNGT-TUE NGT MIZ001>MIZ003 WINTER STORM WATCH TUE-TUE NGT MIZ006-007-085. && $$ KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1151 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006 .AVIATION... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AN MVFR STRATUS DECK EXTENDS ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT HEADS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WANE. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW EASTWARD PUSH TO THE LOW CLOUDS. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM SATELLITE DATA AND THE 00Z NAM AND RUC MODEL RH PROGS...THE STRATUS SHOULD ADVANCE ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND FLINT AREA BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z. FROM SATELLITE...IT APPEARS THE MID AND HIGH DECK WILL EXIT TO THE EAST JUST PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW CLOUDS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT MBS. BASED ON 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GIVEN EXTRAPOLATION FROM SATELLITE...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT ARRIVE IN THE DETROIT AREA UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. THE ONSET OF MIXING AND BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PREVENT A SOLID BROKEN OR OVERCAST DECK FROM REACHING THE DETROIT AREA MONDAY MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 924 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006 UPDATE... THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING WAS EXTREMELY DRY BELOW 700MB...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 30 DEG. THE 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWED THE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN OHIO/INDIANA. BASED ON 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER SE MICHIGAN...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE. WILL THEREFORE REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MONROE COUNTY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST THUS LOOKS GOOD. SOME BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NORTH MAY ALLOW ENOUGH TIME FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DEVELOP SOME FOG. DO NOT SEE THIS BEING ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OBSERVED ON THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING. SO OTHER THAN THE REMOVE OF POPS FROM MONROE...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 241 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE FLOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS LOOKED TO BE ALMOST DUE SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. STRONG WESTERLIES/CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY MODELS ARE INDICATING THE SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT/PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...DECIDED TO MENTION A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MONROE COUNTY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK INTO ONTARIO...CAUSING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TOMORROW MORNING. WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE SNOWPACK (NORTH OF I-69) SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO OVERSPREAD THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. LIKE LAST NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO TAKE A QUICK NOSE DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE THERE WILL ONLY BE A THIN/HIGH OVERCAST THIS EVENING. CURRENT DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S. MINS SHOULD FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW THOSE VALUES. WITH 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING MONDAY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED...WILL KEEP MAXES IN THE 30S ONCE AGAIN. LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE FIRST CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST WILL BE TIMING OUR BRIEF ARCTIC SURGE IN AND OUT OF THE AREA. TRENDS...AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...ARE FOR THE COLD AIR (AT LEAST A PIECE OF IT) TO COME IN TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR FUNNELING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH OF TUESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA (LOW/MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH). MODELS VARY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS AIR SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA...BUT IN ALL SOLUTIONS...IT IS RELATIVELY QUICKLY. EITHER RETURN FLOW SETS IN THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY A BIT TROUBLESOME AS THE TIMING OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL DETERMINE IF THE AREA CLIMBS BACK TO NEAR 40 (AT LEAST SOUTH OF THE SNOW FIELD) ON A MILD WEST/SOUTHWEST BREEZE...OR WHETHER WE GET STUCK CLOSER TO FREEZING. MIDSHIFT LOWER TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES...AND PLAN ON LEAVING THEM AS IS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. WITH A GOOD SNOWPACK OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE CWA...SIGNIFICANT MODERATION MAY BE HARD TO COME BY IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH. WITH THIS SURGE OF COLD AIR...THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW RETURNS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY IN THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT...THE MAIN EMPHASIS FOR SNOW WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE AREA...BUT EVEN IT KEEPS TOTALS AT AN INCH OR LESS. WILL MAINTAIN THE 30-40% CHANCE OF SNOW AT THIS POINT...WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT REGIME. THE FORECAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS THE SECOND CHALLENGE AS A GENERAL MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THIS COLD CORE SHIFTS EAST. TWO MAIN SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE AREA BY THIS TIME AS FIRST...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CUTOFF OFF OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA EJECTS INTO THIS GENERAL VICINITY...AND THEN A MORE IMPORTANT PACIFIC SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS AND COMES THIS WAY. WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS TAKING THE FIRST SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND FOR THE SIMPLE FACT THAT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE EVOLUTION OF THESE CUTOFF LOWS...WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY ATTM. TIMING/POSITION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS HIGHLY IN QUESTION GIVEN IT IS A DAY 6-7 FORECAST. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ADD THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO ONLY SUNDAY TO BRING ATTENTION TO THE FACT THAT ANOTHER WEATHER MAKER IS EXPECTED SOMETIME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL MODERATE HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIMEFRAME AND LEAVE IT AT THAT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS. MARINE... WITH ARCTIC SURGE ON TUESDAY...MODELS STILL SUPPORT A TIGHTENING THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN BEHIND THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT...GALES REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME CHANCE OF STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE MAIN PRESSURE SURGE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUE. WITH THE BEST SURGE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT GALES (W/ GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS ON THE OPEN WATERS & 40 KNOTS IN THE NEARSHORE). SOMETHING TO WATCH. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM....DG YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE). mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 320 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006 .DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORECAST PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS THE STATUS CLOUD TRENDS TO OUR SOUTH AND RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES TODAY. EDGE HAS STARTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHERN MN THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT LATEST RUC..SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER INTO THE CWA BUT MAINLY SW WINDS WILL LIMIT THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT SOMEWHAT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTH CWA LATER. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHING ACROSS N MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO WI. LOOKS LIKE A SHORT TIME WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW NE CWA. OTHERWISE..GFS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS BRINGING STRONG UPPER JET INTO STATE ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION. STRONGEST PRES RISES ARE CONFINED TO NORTHERN MN THOUGH. WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN UNDER THE MID LEVEL DRYING AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. A LITTLE EARLY FOR ADVISORIES..IN THIRD PERIOD AND NARROWING BEST AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. PRECIP CHANCE IS STILL SLIM ON TUESDAY..AND SHOULD BE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF UPPER JET..MAINLY IN WI. TEMPS TODAY MAY BE HELD DOWN BELOW GUID IN A FEW SPOTS DUE TO CLOUDS LATER AND STARTING OUT RATHER COLD. LONGER TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE LATEST GFSLR AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR 500 MB HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES. THESE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ALTERED THE FORECAST SCENARIO ACCORDINGLY. THE GFSLR MODEL SHOWS ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WEAK...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES PASSING OVER THE AREA EACH DAY. THE FORECAST UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM EITHER SHORT WAVE. RELATIVELY MILD AIR IS FORECAST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO PLUS 2 DEGREES. .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ JPR/WH mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 413 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006 .DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS ARE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING AND THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. DENSE FREEZING FOG HAS SPREAD STEADILY WEST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT 0930Z THE FOG AND STRATUS WERE GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. SURFACE OBS AND SEVERAL CALLS AROUND THE AREA REVEAL VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE AND HAVE THUS ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 14Z. RUC BOUNDARY LAYER RH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS EVENT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWS ITS LEAD. BELIEVE THAT WESTERN EDGE OF FOG WILL NOSE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BETWEEN 10 AND 12Z...BEFORE RAPIDLY RETREATING EAST BY 15Z AS SURFACE WINDS TURN WEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER FOG AND STRATUS CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE A MILD DAY WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPS TO AROUND 50F. WINDS COULD GET A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD MIXING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ON A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. WESTERN CONUS RIDGE MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME. SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TRIES TO BACK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT ATTM LOOKS LIKE THIS COOLER AIR WILL STAY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AND HAVE THUS KEPT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ041-NEZ048- NEZ049-NEZ062-NEZ063-NEZ064-NEZ075-NEZ076-NEZ077-NEZ085- NEZ086-NEZ087. KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ006-KSZ007- KSZ019. && $$ KB ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 445 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE S COAST WILL MOVE N TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. THE OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM RAIN THAT DEVELOPED SUNDAY WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE S AS THE FRONT PUSHES N...WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO CLIMB. ACCORDING TO FCST SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE LATE MORNING BEFORE THE COASTAL PLAINS BEGIN TO MIX OUT AND GRADUALLY BECOME UNSTABLE SO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS (AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE) AND COOLEST TEMPS IN THAT AREA. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY EAST NEAR THE OUTER BANKS WILL KEEP A HIGHER CHANCE POP THERE THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG OF THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AFTER 900 AM EAST...BUT SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BROKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH THE AREA BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LVL TROF WILL SWING BY THE AREA FROM THE NW...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL START IN THE W...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR LATE TODAY. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO THE N...HOWEVER THE WAA TODAY COULD MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER LIKELY RW AND ISOLD TSRA TONIGHT...THOUGH TSRA COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...TEMPS WILL COOL ON TUE BEHIND THE FROPA...WITH NW FLOW SETTING UP. HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD E TOWARDS THE REGION TUE WITH COOL AND DRY AIR WITH IT. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND FREEZING...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE HIGH WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES THROUGH FRI. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SUN NT/MON AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W. && .AVIATION...WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE OVER AREA UNTIL BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z...THEN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN AS WARM FRONT JUMPS INLAND. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MOVE IN WITH COLD FRONT. && .MARINE...WINDS HAVE BECOME S TO SW OVER NRN SECTIONS DUE TO WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG VA CAPES. RUC AND ETA12 APPEAR TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND WINDS IN SHORT TERM AND FOLLOWED FOR MOST OF TODAY. THIS RESULTED IN LOWER WIND SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN SECTIONS. SEAS STILL 4-6 FT MOST AREAS...THUS CONTINUED SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT LATE THIS AFTN INTO EVENING...BECOMING W TO NW AFTER FROPA. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BRIEFLY ON WED WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING OVER AREA...THEN STRONGER CAA SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND SECONDARY FRONT TUE NIGHT. THIS SURGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS LIKELY CONTINUING OVER NRN SECTIONS INTO THU NIGHT. WW3 SEAS ACCEPTED WITH MINOR CHANGES. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ150-152-154 UNTIL 2 AM FRIDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ156 UNTIL 5 PM TUESDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ158 UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY. && $$ SJ/JBM nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 337 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006 .SYNOPSIS... A VERY SHALLOW WEDGE OF COOL AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR FIRST ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES...WHICH WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 60S WHILE AREAS WEST OF I95 STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE COOL AIR SHOULD ERODE WEST OF 95 MUCH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL START THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD FOG THAT WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SECOND, MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... AREA RAOB SOUNDINGS SHOW CLASSIC CAD SIGNATURE WITH THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR A MERE 1000FT. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE RUNS HAVE DIFFERED IN TREATMENT OF THE WEDGE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH THE NAM BEING OVERLY BULLISH WITH THE COLD AIR AND THE GFS BLOWING IT OUT TO THE NORTH IN AN UNREALISTIC MANNER. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. THE WEDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN OVER COASTAL AND MAYBE ALL SC COUNTIES BY MIDDAY BUT NC COUNTIES WEST OF I95 SHOULD REMAIN FOR A FEW HOURS MORE. WITH PRECIP NOT FALLING INTO THE COOL AIR AND THE SFC RIDGE TO THE NE AS OPPOSED TO THE N THIS IS NOT A SETUP WHERE THE COLD AIR IS FAVORED TO HOLD ON. FCST SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE NW TO SE TEMP GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON...E.G. AN 8 DEGREE DIFF ACRS BLADEN COUNTY ALONE. ALTHOUGH THIS PROBABLY WILL END UP HAPPENING SOMEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS ITS STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE. LOOKED AT 12KM NAM AND RUC AND MADE BEST ATTEMPT. AS FAR AS PRECIP THE FLAVOR OF THE MORNING SHOULD BE LITTLE MORE THAN DRIZZLE. UPGLIDE OVER THE INVERSION WILL MAKE FOR THE SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM SECTOR PRECIP TAKES ON A MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERY NATURE. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES WITH THE LL CONV ASSOC WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA THIS EVE AND EARLY TONIGHT. STILL BELIEVE THAT ISO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY...GFS MORESO THAN NAM. THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF THUNDER UPSTREAM BUT THOSE AREAS WERE BENEFITING FROM MUCH MORE LL CONV THAN WE WILL SEE. TUESDAY WILL DRY OUT RAPIDLY ALTHOUGH COASTAL LOCALES MAY START THE DAY (MOSTLY BEFORE SUNRISE, THAT IS) WITH CLOUDS AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN A BIT DUE TO ITS INCREASING ALIGNMENT WITH THE MID/UPPER FLOW. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... SFC RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PD WHILE A SECONDARY SHOT OF COOL AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH COMPLIMENTS OF A VORTEX DROPPING INTO NEW ENGLAND. NO PRECIP (OR CLOUDS REALLY, FOR THAT MATTER) WITH THIS ONE...JUST SOME COOLER AIR WED NIGHT AND THURS. SFC RIDGE MOVES IN THUR NIGHT...TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO. RETURN FLOW MAY SET UP BY FRIDAY ALBEIT VERY WEAKLY. GUIDANCE HAS HAD SOME TROUBLE WITH THE PROGRESSION SPEED LATE IN THE WEEK BUT ONLY REAL RAMIFICATION IS WHEN DO TEMPS COME UP ABOUT A CATEGORY. RETURN FLOW DEEPENS OVER THE WEEKEND SO SOME MOISTURE GETS ENTRAINED. LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL JUST MEAN MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS ANY PRECIP ENDS UP SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. JUST IN CASE...LEFT ALONE THE VERY LOW END CHANCE POPS SUNDAY ONWARD AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BE ON ITS WAY. && .AVIATION... COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR S LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THAT...LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS SETTLED IN. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z AND THEN A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES AS CEILINGS LIFT BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. BY 14Z-15Z...EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO HAVE INCREASED ABOVE 6 MILES AND CEILINGS TO BE BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 KFT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR TO BEGIN AROUND 18Z AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. HOWEVER...DURING THIS TIME...ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 3SM WHEN A SHOWER DOES DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL AREA. AFTER 00Z-02Z FROM W TO E...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING. PREVAILING CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z SHOULD BE MVFR. SEE TAFS. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MON NIGHT FOR ALL WATERS. A COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WITH THAT DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE TO CRITICAL LEVELS AND EXPECT SEA FOG TO DEVELOP. ALREADY PLENTY OF FOG...MUCH OF IT DENSE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEA FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING IN COASTAL WATERS. WITH S TO SW WINDS DEVELOPING AND GRADIENT TIGHTENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY REDEVELOP TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH 08Z TO 10Z AND WINDS WILL BECOME N BY DAYBREAK TUE. WILL BRING SEAS DOWN BELOW 6 FT BY TUE MORNING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE W. HOWEVER...GRADIENT IS SLOW TO RELAX WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE U.S. AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH WED. THEN THU AND FRI...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOLIDLY ACROSS THE WATERS TO BE CENTERED OVERHEAD ON FRI. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY. && $$ SYNOPSIS/PUBLIC...BACON AVIATION/MARINE...RJD nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 310 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... WL KEEP HEADLINE GOING AS TEMPS CONT TO FLIRT WITH FREEZING. CALLS AROUND NOT INDICATING ANY PROBS BUT RA LINGERING OVER AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SO...WL LET ADVISORY CONTINUE AS IS GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF ICING. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD BE E OF I-71 NEXT HR OR SO AND PRETTY MUCH OUT OF FA BY 13Z. WL GO WITH AN EARLY AM PD WITH INTENTION OF UPDATING TO DO AWAY WITH HEADLINE AND PRECIP BEFORE DAY CREW ARRIVES. MOST AREAS SHOULD ONLY SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIP. RAPID DRYING TO OCCUR BEHIND PRECIP AND MUCH OF AREA WL BE SUNNY BY MIDDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCR LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. SUM MODEL DIFFS WITH HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS DEVELOPS A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SFC LOW AND TRACKS IT FURTHER S THAN NAM. AS A RESULT 850 MB TEMPS END UP BEING A GOOD 4 TO 6 DEG COLDER THAN NAM. ECWMF GIVES SUPPORT TO WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NAM SOL SO IT WL BE FOLLOWED TDA. ALTHO THERE COULD BE SUM LE SHSN ACTIVITY TMRW AFT E OF KCLE...BIG STORY WL BE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT WHICH MOVE THRU DURG THE DAY. COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ON LAND AND CERTAINLY WOULDN'T WANT TO BE OUT ON LERI TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPS COULD OCCUR BY MIDDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY SUNSET. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS EXPECTED AS LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFF WL BE MARGINAL AT BEST AND GROUND UNSEASONABLY WARM. SNOW CHCS WL PERSIST TUE NIGHT THRU WED NGT IN NE OH/NW PA. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BUILDING IT IN SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND DIGEX. ATTM WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING AND AIRMASS DRYING OUT MAY JUST LEAVE SOME FLURRIES IN NW PA FOR THURSDAY AM. THE RIDGE STAYS IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SATURDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THAT. MAY HAVE A 20 POP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A 40-50% CHANCE OF RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IT COULD CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SO FAR OUT...IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN THE PCPN MAY NOT SWITCH OVER SO FAST...NO CHANGEOVER ATTM. GUID TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY BUT MAY BE A LITTLE COOL THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. GUID LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS IN THE EASTERN AREAS MIGHT BE TOO HIGH WITH THE FORECAST OF SOME SNOW COVER AND WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE I.E. LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MUCH CLOUDINESS...LOWERED A LITTLE. && .AVIATION(06Z-06Z)... CURRENTLY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...SECONDARY LOW HAS DEVELOPED INTO TN. BOTH ETA AND RUC CONTINUES TO MOVE LOW INTO WEST VA BY 12Z AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHIELD HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL OHIO...BUT HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING NORTH. ALL PRECIP CURRENTLY IS RAIN AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS NE OHIO HAVE RISIN INTO THE MID 30S. EXPECT RAIN SHIELD TO CONTINUE TO NORTH...DONT EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REACH NW OHIO. FOR THE NORTHERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES LIKE CLE AND ERIE THEY WILL BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THE PRECIP AND WILL PROBABLY ONLY GET A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN AT BEST. BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN NE AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO LOCATIONS LIKE MFD...CAK AND YNG. BUT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO BE RAIN...BUT POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...FZRA ADVISORY 04Z-12Z MON FOR OHZ020>023-029>033-036-037- 038-047. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...DJB oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 1220 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006 AVIATION(06Z-06Z)... CURRENTLY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...SECONDARY LOW HAS DEVELOPED INTO TN. BOTH ETA AND RUC CONTINUES TO MOVE LOW INTO WEST VA BY 12Z AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHIELD HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL OHIO...BUT HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING NORTH. ALL PRECIP CURRENTLY IS RAIN AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS NE OHIO HAVE RISIN INTO THE MID 30S. EXPECT RAIN SHIELD TO CONTINUE TO NORTH...DONT EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REACH NW OHIO. FOR THE NORTHERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES LIKE CLE AND ERIE THEY WILL BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THE PRECIP AND WILL PROBABLY ONLY GET A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN AT BEST. BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN NE AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO LOCATIONS LIKE MFD...CAK AND YNG. BUT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO BE RAIN...BUT POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)... MNLY RA ADVANCING NNE ACRS SRN OH TWD OUR AREA. TEMPS SEEMED TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY WHILE DWPTS ROSE AS PRECIP STARTED FOR PLACES IN SRN OH. WL KP ADVSRY GOING DUE TO SOME PLACES LIKE MFD WITH TEMPS ALREADY AT OR WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF FREEZING PT. XPCT SOME OUTLYING SPOTS TO AT LEAST BE THIS CLD. WRM LYR STARTING JUST ABV SFC UP TO NR 5K FT WITH TEMPS PEAKING 4 OR 5 DEG C. THIS PROB REASON FOR TEMPS NOT FALLING WITH PRECIP START SINCE RAIN REACHING GND PROB IN 35 TO 40 DEG RANGE SO TENDING TO HOLD TEMPS IN PLACE EVEN WITH EVAP GOING ON. WITH MNN AT 33 ALSO WL ADD A FEW MORE CO'S ONTO WRN END OF ADVSRY AREA. && .PREV SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... INVERTED TROF MOVING UP...THE 12Z MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE GETS AND KEEPS IT WARM. MODEL RUNS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH MORE WITH NAM AND THAT SEEMS TO FIT THE RADAR ATTM. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MOST OF TONIGHT...SOME SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHWEST PA. WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 32F AND DEW POINTS LOW. THE RRQ OF THE JET SHOULD HELP WITH THE DYNAMICS. WE SHOULD NOT GET A LOT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING BUT ENOUGH TO GET SOME LOCATIONS NEAR 32F FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN. AS THE PCPN STARTS DEW POINTS SHOULD COME UP AND TEMPERATAURES JUST DROP A LITTLE. PCPN AMOUNTS INCLUDING RAIN SHOULD BE .10 OR LESS. THE GROUND IS NOT THAT WARM SO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. THIS IS QUICK SHOT OF PCPN AND THE WORSE SHOULD BE OVER BY 12Z. GUID MIN TEMPS A LITTLE TOO COOL WITH THE CLOUD COVER...RAISED SOME. LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE LIKE ERIE AND CLE WILL HAVE A SE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THAT MIGHT HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER...SOME SPOTS WILL BE NEAR 32 OR 31F. AMOUNTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE MAY JUST APPROACH .01 OR .02 THUS WITH IT BEING LIGHT AND UNCERTAIN WHETHER IT WILL EVEN MAKE IT...NO ADVISORY ALONG THE LAKESHORE. RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MODELS AGREE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR. 850 MB WINDS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS AND WITH THE LAPSE RATES BECOMING UNSTABLE...NOT MUCH SHEAR AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM BUFKIT HAD 40 KNOTS...THE LOW SEEMS FAR ENOUGH NORTH...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOME QUITE STONG BY 18Z TUE. GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE SEEM VERY REASONABLE...ATTM IT WOULD JUST BE AN ADVISORY...DOESN'T SEEM STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND WATCH ATTM. SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE APPROACHES 13C. WITH THE NW FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE INLAND NW PA. A S/WV FOR WEDNESDAY COULD CAUSE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOW BELT OF OHIO. THIS IS A MARGINAL EVENT WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE. NEXT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND IF HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BUILDING IT IN SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND DIGEX. ATTM WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING AND AIRMASS DRYING OUT MAY JUST LEAVE SOME FLURRIES IN NW PA FOR THURSDAY AM. THE RIDGE STAYS IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SATURDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THAT. MAY HAVE A 20 POP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A 40-50% CHANCE OF RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IT COULD CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SO FAR OUT...IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN THE PCPN MAY NOT SWITCH OVER SO FAST...NO CHANGEOVER ATTM. GUID TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY BUT MAY BE A LITTLE COOL THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. GUID LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS IN THE EASTERN AREAS MIGHT BE TOO HIGH WITH THE FORECAST OF SOME SNOW COVER AND WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE I.E. LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MUCH CLOUDINESS...LOWERED A LITTLE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...FZRA ADVISORY 04Z-12Z MON FOR OHZ020>023-029>033-036-037- 038-047. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/ADAMS LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...DJB oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 314 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006 .DISCUSSION... ONE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST RUC BOUNDARY LAYER RH INDICATES THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THE SOUTH AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR PART OF THE MORNING TO NORTH AND EAST OF TULSA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AVAILABLE. WENT THE COOLEST FROM BVO TO FYV AND THE WARMEST AT HUGO. WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS NO REAL COLD AIR IS IN SIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THE GFS IS NOW MORE LIKE THE UKMET AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THUS...WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL WINDOW FOR RAIN. THE BEST CHANCES WOULD BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY LOOKS MORE PROMISING. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE RIGHT THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THERE ALSO WILL PROBABLY BE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 52 32 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 53 29 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 54 30 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 50 27 61 24 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 48 26 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 46 28 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 53 30 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 46 26 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 F10 53 29 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 56 34 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 18 LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 17 ABBAS ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 335 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006 ...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY... .SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN WE ARE DEALING WITH STRATUS HANGING AROUND THE CWA THIS MORNING...MAKING VERY NEAR TERM FORECASTS A CHALLENGE...AND STILL LOOKING VERY WINDY /POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY/ TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED EAST OF MS RIVER...BARELY...AND IS HANGING UP NOW. MUCH OF WISCONSIN PORTION OF STRATUS FIELD IS BREAKING UP THOUGH...AND NAM/RUC 950MB RH FIELDS DOING A MAGNIFICENT JOB WITH THE STRATUS...AND WILL USE IT TO EXTRAPOLATE MOVEMENT THROUGH TODAY. WESTERN PORTION OF THE STRATUS FIELD /WRN IA/ ALREADY TURNING AROUND ON BACKSIDE OF RIDGE /RUNNING THROUGH HEART OF CWA INTO KOMA AREA/ AND ROARING NORTHEAST INTO SWRN MN. AS SFC-H9 RIDGE CROSSES CWA...DRY POCKET FROM SFC-H9 MOVES ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING SO EXPECT A GREAT DEAL OF SUN THIS MORNING. RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS /SWLY/ IN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRESSURE FALLS BRINGS STRATUS FIELD INTO WRN CWA JUST AFTER NOON...AND ACROSS CWA BY SUNSET...SO CLOUDS INCREASING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST...AS WILL WINDS. MUCH OF THE WARMING COMING IN ABOVE STRENGTHENING INVERSION...AND DIDN/T WANT TO WARM TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH BASED ON GUIDANCE BEING TOO WARM LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS THIS EVENING TO 130-150KT H3 JET RUNNING OVER THE TOP OF REX BLOCK REGIME IN WRN CONUS...AND DIGGING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO MN/IA. GFS/NAM STILL SHOWING VERY POTENT 220M HEIGHT FALL /H5/ CENTER DROPPING ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN TUES MORNING WITH ATTENDANT 110KT H5 JET...AND 55KT H85 JET CROSSING CWA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FOR SURE BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO CWA...AND HUNCH IS AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY WIND PRONE AREAS FROM KRST TO KOLZ AND WEST. SEVERAL THINGS CAUSE ME CONCERN HOWEVER...AND HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING JUST HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BE. DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN NAM/GFS THROWING SOME QUESTIONS TO WHETHER IT WILL BE LOW END ADVISORY /GFS/ OR HIGH END ADVISORY /NAM/. DON/T THINK THERE IS ENOUGH THERE NOW FOR CONCERN OF A HIGH WIND WARNING. WITH RESPECT TO NAM...I HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THE STRONGEST BURST OF COLD ADVECTION COMING IN THE SUNRISE HOURS TUES /BEFORE PRIME MIXING/...AND OUT AHEAD OF MAIN LOW LEVEL WIND MAX WHICH IS STILL BACK IN WRN MN/ERN SD. AND WHILE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO IMMEDIATELY SPREAD IN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...SOUNDINGS LAY CONCERN HOW DEEP INTO THE VERY WELL ALIGNED MIXING CHANNEL WE CAN TAP. FURTHER STILL...THE MAX ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT WITH THE 7MB/3HR PRESSURE RISE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS /BUFR/ TUESDAY MORNING SHOWING VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE...WHICH IS A PRIMARY HIGH WIND COMPONENT...AND ALSO A BRIEF /3HR/ WINDOW NEAR 15Z WHERE LOW LEVEL Q VECTORS ALIGNED PERFECTLY WITH THE MEAN LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD ADVECTION. HENCE...EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE MORNING...WITH 35-45 MPH GUSTS IN WRN CWA AND 30-40 MPH IN ERN CWA. GFS BRINGING A STRONGER PIECE OF H7 ENERGY ACROSS CWA IN THE MORNING...WITH ACTUALLY SOME PRETTY STRONG UVM AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...WHICH WILL REALLY HINDER MIXING OF STRONG WINDS. SO GRADIENT WOULD BE THE LONE COMPONENT WITH ISALLOBARIC FORCING SO FAR TO THE NORTH. EVEN STILL...GFS WINDS IN AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE NEARLY AS STRONG AS NAM...SO EITHER WAY...STRONG WINDS WILL BUFFET THE CWA ON TUESDAY. DID NOT BUY INTO GFS PCPN THIS FAR SOUTH/WEST...AND MAINTAINED THE SMALL CHANCES IN THE FAR NERN CWA WHERE SATURATION AND Q/G FORCING THE STRONGEST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIT WINDS HARD IN HWO...AND ADD HIGHLIGHT WORDING TO ZONES. WEDNESDAY A VERY QUIET DAY WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN AND RIDGING BACK INTO CWA. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO REAL CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM...OTHER THAN TO JOIN OUR WESTERN/SOUTHERN NEIGHBORS AND INCREASE POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS CUTOFF SWRN CONUS ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEAST AS AN OPEN WAVE...AND GFS/NAM HAVE COME AROUND FULLY NOW TO THIS SCENARIO WHICH THE UK/ECMWF SHOWED MORE THAN 24 HOURS AGO. PLENTY OF WARM AIR OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH H85 STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES RUNNING FROM 1.5 TO 2.O ACROSS THE CWA...HIGHER FURTHER NORTH. LIFT AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE POSITIVE TILT WAVE COOL TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY...SO COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW. NOT MUCH SURFACE REFLECTION WITH SYSTEM...AND EXPECT IT TO BE RATHER STARVED OF MOISTURE. APPEARS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE STILL ON TAP SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY PER ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM AS PROGRESSIVE/SHARP WAVE...MUCH LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST 6 WEEKS CROSSES THE CONUS IN DEAMPLIFYING FAST FLOW. COULD BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF DECENT PCPN...GIVEN CLOSED H7 CIRCULATION AND IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE DEPICTION OF WAVE ON ECMWF. GFS NOT SHOWING THIS YET...BUT MOST LIKELY WILL IN FUTURE RUNS AS IT COMES TO ECMWF SOLUTION. STILL A VERY MILD PATTERN...AND DESPITE LONG RANGE TELECONNECTIONS AND ENSEMBLES STILL POINTING AT A MUCH COLDER PATTERN TAKING SHAPE IN EARLY FEBRUARY...THE DAILY /OPNL/ RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS SHOWING NO SUCH SIGNS OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE...WITH STRONG PACIFIC FLOW AND ALASKA NEG HEIGHT ANOMALY DOMINATING THE NOAM FLOW PATTERN. HAVE NOTICED THE ENSEMBLE MOS HAS GOTTEN VERY NOISY /VERY LARGE STANDARD DEVIATIONS/ IN THE LATE PERIODS SO PERHAPS SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STARTING TO SUGGEST A CHANGE. NOTHING ON THE HORIZON YET. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ BINAU wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 931 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006 .DISCUSSION... HAVE UPDATED TO EXTEND FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. MIXING DOWN OF WINDS SLOWER TO OCCUR AND SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. CONTACT WITH COUNTY SHERIFF'S OFFICES INDICATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG STILL OCCURRING IN ADVISORY AREA JUST BEFORE 9 AM... PF && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 225 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006 STRATUS AND HAZE PUSHING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA ATTM. NEXT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND ACROSS NEBRASKA MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE LOW 30S WHERE STRATUS HAS MOVED IN...WITH THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES DROPPING INTO THE 20S BEFORE THE CLOUDS ROLLED IN. MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW LONG CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH WITH LIGHT SE WINDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE 500M LEVEL PER PROFILERS. 06Z RUC AND ETA12 LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST STRATUS IS IN PLACE UNTIL THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE CAN INCREASE WESTERLY FLOW AND BEGIN TO PUSH THE CLOUDS OUT. WILL HAVE CLOUD COVER INTO THE NOON HOUR...THEN BEGIN TO DRAW CLOUDS EASTWARD THROUGH 0Z. AS A RESULT...WESTERN ZONES MIGHT BE ABLE TO MAKE 50 AS SKIES CLEAR...BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK MID 40S. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT. TUES/WED STILL SHOWING A GOOD WARMUP AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TO AN UPPER RIDGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ETA IS A BIT WEAKER WITH THE RIDGING...KEEPS WINDS ALOFT A SMIDGE HIGHER....AND 850MB TEMPS HIGHER AND AS A RESULT GIVES WARMER SURFACE TEMPS. CURRENT GRIDS GENERALLY REFLECT A MIX TO 900MB WITH GFS PROFILE. FOR THURS...0Z GFS COMING AROUND TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF LIFTING THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INSTEAD OF PREVIOUS SOUTHERLY TRACK. THIS WOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN BRING IN DRIER AIR AROUND THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE CWA LATE THURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE STILL GIVING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH DIV Q AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN PLACE AS WELL AS ENOUGH TIME TO DRAW IN SOME INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. MIGHT BE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW ON THIS TRACK. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR FRI-SUN. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM TODAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A WASHINGTON TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE AND SOUTH OF A COUNCIL GROVE TO OTTAWA LINE. && $$ 67/39 ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1020 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... HAVE UPDATED AGAIN THIS MORNING TO ISSUE A HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST TIER OF NEW HAMPSHIRE ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SO FAR...SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN...AND THE BANDING FEATURE REMAINS ON RADAR ACROSS THIS AREA...AND THE SNOW EXTENDS BACK THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...WHERE ALB IS REPORTING MODERATE SNOW. A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MAINE...AS THE BEST LIFT IN BANDING REMAINS SOUTH OF THIS AREA. ALSO UPDATED FOR THE RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S ALONG THE MID COAST OF MAINE...WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT HAS NUDGED ONSHORE. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 913 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOWFALL TRENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ACCOUNTING FOR BANDS OF SNOW SETTING UP ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM AND THE CURRENT RADAR PRESENTATION...UPPED TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHERNMOST NEW HAMPSHIRE ZONES TO 4 TO 6 INCHES. IF THE TRANSVERSE FEATURES ON THE RADAR INCREASE...MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A SHORT FUSED HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ZONES THIS MORNING. MARINE... FORECAST UPDATED EARLIER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAY HAVE TO PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS FOR TONIGHT...AS THE SWELL FROM THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM COMES BACK TO THE COAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 640 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... SNOW BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND A LOOK AT THE 06Z RUC...WILL UPDATE TO UP CURRENT 2-4 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGES TO 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH SNOW ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 209 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TODAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER DAYLIGHT AND SHOULD END DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND LOOKS LIKE A 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND A 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ELSEWHERE. GFS HINTS AT A POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ALONG OUR SOUTHERNMOST COASTAL AREA...BUT AM LEANING AGAINST IT AT THIS TIME. SHOULD IT DO SO...IT WOULD KNOCK DOWN COASTAL ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR SO. NO WIND PROBLEMS BEHIND THE STORM. POPS/TEMPS A BLEND OF CURRENT FCST AS WELL AS GFS/NAM GUIDANCE. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...QUIET AND MILD DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. COLD FRONT REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODELED POPS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WILL LEAVE SNOW LIKELY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM WRAPS UP OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS IT WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PROBLEMS ACROSS THE GYX FORECAST AREA (PERHAPS SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER). REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST IS WINDY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY MORE MILD WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. EAST COAST SURFACE RIDGE TO SET UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN. AVIATION...VFR EARLY...DROPPING TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE FROM WEST TO EAST...THEN DOWN TO IFR/LIFR BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MARINE...NO FLAGS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...SNOW ADVISORY FOR MEZ018>028 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. NH...SNOW ADVISORY FOR NHZ005-006-009-010 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR NHZ007-008-013-014 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. MARINE...NONE. && $$ me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 913 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOWFALL TRENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ACCOUNTING FOR BANDS OF SNOW SETTING UP ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM AND THE CURRENT RADAR PRESENTATION...UPPED TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHERNMOST NEW HAMPSHIRE ZONES TO 4 TO 6 INCHES. IF THE TRANSVERSE FEATURES ON THE RADAR INCREASE...MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A SHORT FUSED HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ZONES THIS MORNING. && .MARINE... FORECAST UPDATED EARLIER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAY HAVE TO PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS FOR TONIGHT...AS THE SWELL FROM THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM COMES BACK TO THE COAST. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 640 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... SNOW BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND A LOOK AT THE 06Z RUC...WILL UPDATE TO UP CURRENT 2-4 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGES TO 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH SNOW ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 209 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TODAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER DAYLIGHT AND SHOULD END DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND LOOKS LIKE A 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND A 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ELSEWHERE. GFS HINTS AT A POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ALONG OUR SOUTHERNMOST COASTAL AREA...BUT AM LEANING AGAINST IT AT THIS TIME. SHOULD IT DO SO...IT WOULD KNOCK DOWN COASTAL ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR SO. NO WIND PROBLEMS BEHIND THE STORM. POPS/TEMPS A BLEND OF CURRENT FCST AS WELL AS GFS/NAM GUIDANCE. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...QUIET AND MILD DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. COLD FRONT REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODELED POPS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WILL LEAVE SNOW LIKELY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM WRAPS UP OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS IT WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PROBLEMS ACROSS THE GYX FORECAST AREA (PERHAPS SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER). REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST IS WINDY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY MORE MILD WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. EAST COAST SURFACE RIDGE TO SET UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN. AVIATION...VFR EARLY...DROPPING TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE FROM WEST TO EAST...THEN DOWN TO IFR/LIFR BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MARINE...NO FLAGS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...SNOW ADVISORY FOR MEZ018>028 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. NH...SNOW ADVISORY FOR NHZ005>010-013-014 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. MARINE...NONE. && $$ me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 640 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... SNOW BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND A LOOK AT THE 06Z RUC...WILL UPDATE TO UP CURRENT 2-4 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGES TO 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH SNOW ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 209 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TODAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER DAYLIGHT AND SHOULD END DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND LOOKS LIKE A 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND A 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ELSEWHERE. GFS HINTS AT A POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ALONG OUR SOUTHERNMOST COASTAL AREA...BUT AM LEANING AGAINST IT AT THIS TIME. SHOULD IT DO SO...IT WOULD KNOCK DOWN COASTAL ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR SO. NO WIND PROBLEMS BEHIND THE STORM. POPS/TEMPS A BLEND OF CURRENT FCST AS WELL AS GFS/NAM GUIDANCE. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...QUIET AND MILD DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. COLD FRONT REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODELED POPS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WILL LEAVE SNOW LIKELY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM WRAPS UP OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS IT WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PROBLEMS ACROSS THE GYX FORECAST AREA (PERHAPS SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER). REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST IS WINDY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY MORE MILD WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. EAST COAST SURFACE RIDGE TO SET UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN. AVIATION...VFR EARLY...DROPPING TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE FROM WEST TO EAST...THEN DOWN TO IFR/LIFR BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MARINE...NO FLAGS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...SNOW ADVISORY FOR MEZ018>028 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. NH...SNOW ADVISORY FOR NHZ005>010-013-014 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. MARINE...NONE. && $$ me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 743 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006 .DISCUSSION... THE FOG CONTINUES TO LIFT THIS MORNING NOW THAT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTLY FLOW HAS TAKEN HOLD OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE STILL A FEW SPOTS REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES...HOWEVER THINK THEY WILL QUICKLY RISE AND WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME AT 8 AM. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 413 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006) DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS ARE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING AND THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. DENSE FREEZING FOG HAS SPREAD STEADILY WEST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT 0930Z THE FOG AND STRATUS WERE GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. SURFACE OBS AND SEVERAL CALLS AROUND THE AREA REVEAL VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE AND HAVE THUS ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 14Z. RUC BOUNDARY LAYER RH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS EVENT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWS ITS LEAD. BELIEVE THAT WESTERN EDGE OF FOG WILL NOSE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BETWEEN 10 AND 12Z...BEFORE RAPIDLY RETREATING EAST BY 15Z AS SURFACE WINDS TURN WEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER FOG AND STRATUS CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE A MILD DAY WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPS TO AROUND 50F. WINDS COULD GET A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD MIXING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ON A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. WESTERN CONUS RIDGE MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME. SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TRIES TO BACK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT ATTM LOOKS LIKE THIS COOLER AIR WILL STAY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AND HAVE THUS KEPT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1230 PM CST MON JAN 23 2006 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING FOG. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S OVER SE IL AS WNW WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH TURN SW. FOG STILL LINGERED EAST OF THE IL RIVER AND NORTH OF I-70 AT NOON WITH VISIBILITIES 1 TO 3 MILES WITH CHARLESTON/MATTOON STILL AT A HALF MILE WITH FREEZING FOG. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT INTO A LIGHT HAZE BY MID AFTERNOON. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STATUS UNDER 1000 FT HAS CLEARED SE OF LAWRENCEVILLE IN FAR SE IL AND IS THINNING A BIT NORTH OF I-72 WHERE BREAKS IN OVERCAST ARE APPEARING AT MIDDAY. THESE CLOUDS COVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MO AND MUCH OF IOWA. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S FROM CHARLESTON/MATTON NORTH...WITH 30S FROM I-70 SOUTH AND LAWRENCEVILLE UP TO 38F WHICH HAD MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. 1027 MB HIGH PRESURE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND RIDGING NE ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND CENTRAL IL NEAR THE IL RIVER VALLEY. AN INVERSION FROM THIS HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN TRAPPING LOW CLOUD LAYER THAT IS AROUND 1500 FEET THICK PER PILOT REPORTS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO SLIP SE TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER BY MID EVENING/03Z AND WNW WINDS TO TURN SW AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY EVENING. THIS SHOULD HELP MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THIS EVENING...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS YET THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S FROM PEORIA NORTH WHERE LIGHT SNOW COVER AND LOWER 40S OVER SE IL WHERE MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BY LAWRENCEVILLE. IF CLOUDS BREAK UP QUICKER... THE WARMER RUC AND NAM TEMPS MAY WORK OUT WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. .PREV DISCUSSION... AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG IN THE AREA AGAIN THIS MORNING... HOWEVER VSBYS GENERALLY A LITTLE HIGHER AND LESS UNIFORM THAN YESTERDAY SO WILL WITHHOLD ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND THE REGION LIKE AN UNWELCOME HOUSE GUEST THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE AND MOS COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH AS MOIST LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW AND THUS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE. SATELLITE AND PROFILER OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHWEST FLOW AOA 925MB HAS BEEN PULLING SOME DRIER AIR INTO NORTHEASTERN IOWA. WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS ILLINOIS... MISSOURI... AND SOUTHEAST IOWA... WHERE LOW CLOUDS REMAIN SOCKED IN. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS AREA TODAY... LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND NORTHERLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. NOT MUCH MIXING OUT OF SHALLOW MOIST LAYER EXPECTED. WESTERLY FLOW AND ANY ATTENDANT CLOUD EROSION SHOULD STAY OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LOW CLOUD ERADICATION WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AS STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM SINKS INTO WESTERN ONTARIO... ALLOWING GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR TODAY. MOS TEMPS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH DUE TO UNDERESTIMATING CLOUD COVER... AND WILL GREATLY UNDERCUT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE SNOWPACK REMAINS. LOWER 40S SOUTH OF I-70 AND MID 30S ELSEWHERE MIGHT EVEN BE A TAD OPTIMISTIC. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW KICKS OVERNIGHT... CLOUDS SHOULD START TO DECAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER... MAY SEE CLOUDS TRY TO HANG ON WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVER SNOWPACK AREAS IN THE FAR NORTH. TUESDAY... STRONG UPPER LOW LUMBERS ACROSS ONTARIO... WITH ATTENDANT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON... AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE RATHER TRICKY... AS ATMOSPHERE LIKELY TO BE WELL MIXED ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER... QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL COOL AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT... AND DESPITE LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE... STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH CAA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DECENT DECK OF STRATO CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS BY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING CLOUD COVER... HAVE PULLED TEMPS BACK BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. FARTHER SOUTH... WE MAY SEE LOW/MID 40S IF SKY COVER ALLOWS. IF CURRENT CLOUD DECK PERSISTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH... MAY EVEN HAVE TO CARVE BACK TEMPS A BIT MORE. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER MAJOR STORY ON TUESDAY... AS GRADIENT SETS UP... WITH STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. ETA/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO ABOUT 880 MB OR SO... POSSIBLY TAPPING INTO 40-45 KT FLOW JUST OVERHEAD. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THE CWA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS... A FEW FLURRIES COULD BE SHAKEN OUT OF ANY STRATOCU DECK... ESPECIALLY AS STRONG VORT MAX SLIDES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY... ETA BECOMES THE OUTLIER HERE... WITH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS UNDER-AMPLIFIED. GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS... GFS ENSEMBLES... UKMET... ECMWF. ETA MAY BE TOO QUICK TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT APPEARS THE REGION MAY STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. POSSIBLE FORECAST PITFALL IS WITH CLOUD COVER GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SETTLE IN... HOWEVER IF H85 RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST... RESULTING IN MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW... LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE MOVING OUT TOO QUICKLY. FURTHER REASON TO TEMPER MAX TEMPS... ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST. BY MIDWEEK... LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS GOUGED OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST... WITH A CLASSIC CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IN BETWEEN... SHARP SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS... WHICH IS WHERE WE SHOULD FIND OURSELVES BY THURSDAY... ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. MAIN PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE WITH CUTOFF LOW AND ITS EVENTUAL KICKER TROUGH. GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE GREATLY BY MID/LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE STICKING POINT APPEARING TO BE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... KICKING OUT THE CUTOFF LOW. GFS/ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON SHEARING OUT THE CUTOFF TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY... BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO QUICK CONSIDERING AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY ON FRIDAY... CONSIDERING CUTOFF WILL BE SHEARING OUT MORE TO OUR NORTHWEST... AND MAY INDEED BE A BIT SLOWER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE CURRENTLY ADVERTISES. PRECIP THREAT MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE KICKER TROUGH ITSELF... AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER... INDICATIONS NOW ARE THAT MUCH OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVEN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. BEYOND THE CUTOFF LOW SITUATION... PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN FAIRLY QUICK SUCCESSION AS LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST LIFTS OUT. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE MILD AS COLD AIR REMAINS NORTH OF 60. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ HARDIMAN il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1118 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006 .UPDATE... FCST GRIDS AND ZONES TWEAKED TO REFLECT QUICK SCOURING OF STRATUS AND REFLECTANCE ON TEMPS. LATEST GOES VISIBLE LOOP SHOWS THE CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA NOW CLOUD-FREE. NAM AND RUC TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS ALL PORTRAY CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO ERODE...HOWEVER SEEING STRATOCU FINGERING IN OVER NW AREAS. THINK THAT WILL ONLY CONTINUE OVER AND WEST OF A MDH TO MVN LINE...SO HAVE BUMPED DOWN MAXS ACCORDINGLY. MAXS ELSEWHERE ALREADY TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THIS CLEARING AND ONGOING YET WEAKENING CAA...SO LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO REST OF CWA. && PREV DISCUSSION... AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND VERY LIGHT RAIN PERSISTED EAST OF A MOUNT CARMEL IL TO POPLAR BLUFF MO LINE EARLY THIS MORNING. MAY HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE FORECAST EARLY ON. OTHERWISE CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD AND TEMP TRENDS LOW TODAY...BASED ON SATELLITE. LOW STRATUS LURKING JUST NORTH OF THE FA. DEEP SEEDED MOISTURE WAS NOW EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MOVING STEADILY EAST. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW CLOUD COVER WILL TEND THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW WE WILL HEDGE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE AND THE DAY SHIFT CAN ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE BASED ON HOLDING ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER...ALONG WITH WEAK CAA. QUIET WX EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THUR...AS WE TRANSITION TO NW FLOW ALOFT. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO START THURSDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME SW AND MORE UNSETTLED. STILL NO REAL COLD AIR TO SPEAK OF EITHER. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. $$ CN/MTF ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1201 PM EST MON JAN 23 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... MESOSCALE UPDATE 3... WE JUST SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO FORECASTS/STATEMENTS TO ADJUST PRECIP TYPE FOR I-95 ZONES AS WELL AS NORTHERN CT...NW RI AND ADJACENT SW/ S CENTRAL MA BASED UPON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HEAVIEST SNOW IS SHIFTING OFF COAST BUT WILL STILL AFFECT MERRIMACK VALLEY FOR NEXT HOUR. MEANWHILE...RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS EDGED A BIT FARTHER N INTO NORTHERN RI AND BOSTON'S SOUTHERN SUBURBS...BUT WE ARE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT AFTER CHECKING LATEST RUC THAT BOS ITSELF WILL PROBABLY NOT COMPLETELY CHANGE OVER (THOUGH IT MAY HAPPEN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON). JUST NOT ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE A BIT TOO COLD (-4C) TO CAUSE A RAPID CHANGE TO RAIN THERE. SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED JUST S OF LONG ISLAND AT 11 AM AND WILL TRACK S OF NANTUCKET THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BACK WINDS TO NE AND N WHICH WILL DRAW LOW LEVEL COLD BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... THEREFORE WE INDICATED A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS FAR SE AS I-95. THAT SAID...FORECAST STORM TOTALS LOOK VERY GOOD AND NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MINIMAL... GENERALLY 1-3" AT MOST. JWD && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1049 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... MESOSCALE UPDATE 2... FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. SHORT TERM FORECASTS WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON INTENSITY AND CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. RAIN/SNOW LINE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SLOWLY N AND EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN HARTFORD AND TOLLAND COUNTIES INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...THEN INTO PROVIDENCE...TAUNTON AND PLYMOUTH. WE HAVE ALSO RECEIVED MANY REPORTS OF SLEET MIXING IN...MAINLY S OF MASS PIKE. THIS WARMING IS ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL FRONT BUT ALSO WITH NOSE OF 850 MB JET...WHICH WILL HEAD OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THAT SHOULD BE THE END OF SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL WARMING. AT SAME TIME COASTAL FRONT SHOULD WORK A BIT FARTHER INLAND...BEFORE SURFACE LOW TRACKING S OF NANTUCKET FORCES WINDS TO BACK TO NE AND THEN N...PUTTING AN END TO LOW LEVEL WARMING. SO IT'S STILL A TOUGH CALL AS TO HOW FAR INLAND RAIN/SNOW LINE PENETRATES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT WE STILL THINK IT WILL MAKE IT INTO NW RI AND METRO BOS...THOUGH IT'S DEBATABLE OVER N SHORE. OBSERVED POINT SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE DYNAMIC COOLING IS KEEPING EVERYTHING SNOW AROUND IMMEDIATE BOS AREA RIGHT NOW...SO AS INTENSITY DECREASES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... WE SHOULD SEE MORE LOCATIONS SWITCH OVER. FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS...SNOW OR SNOW/SLEET WILL LAST THROUGH AFTERNOON BUT SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT CAME THROUGH THIS MORNING. JWD PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 844 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... MESOSCALE UPDATE... SO FAR SO GOOD. RAIN/SNOW LINE IS EDGING N THROUGH CT...SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE IT'S INTO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HARTFORD... TOLLAND AND WINDHAM COUNTIES THEN INTO SOUTHERN RI AND CAPE COD CANAL. OBSERVED LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE EVERYTHING IS BEING DRIVEN BY DYNAMIC COOLING RIGHT NOW...THUS SNOW IS DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE DOWN TO S COAST DESPITE SE FLOW WHICH TYPICALLY CAUSES A RAPID CHANGE TO RAIN FOR THE COAST. BACK EDGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS WORKING THROUGH NE CT AND RI RIGHT NOW...SO AS THIS BACK EDGE ADVANCES INTO SE MA WE EXPECT TO SEE MORE LOCATIONS CHANGE TO RAIN (OR AT LEAST A MIX) FROM PROVIDENCE TO PLYMOUTH...AS WELL AS IMMEDIATE BOSTON METRO AREA. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN IN HARTFORD TO WORCESTER AND LAWRENCE CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS LOCATIONS FARTHER N AND W. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY FOR THESE PLACES. ALL IN ALL CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED...SO NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. JWD PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 452 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY)... LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH AN AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR PICTURES INDICATE IN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE GULF STATES TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. USED THE 00Z GFS AS MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY...GIVEN THAT IT INITIALIZED BETTER FROM 00Z RADIOSONDE OBSERVATIONS. IN ADDITION THE GFS ADVERTISES IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MORE REFLECTIVE OF UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. LEXINGTON KY RECEIVED 1.31" BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z (ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE 250 MILLIBAR JET). THE GFS ALSO MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THIS IS VERIFYING BETTER WITH FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. 00Z NAM AND GFS THICKNESSES WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR...BUT CHOSE THE SLIGHTLY COLDER MET SURFACE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. GIVEN INHERENT LOW DEWPOINT AIR...NORTHERLY AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING DUE TO STRONG LIFTING MECHANISMS. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST EAST SOUTHEASTERLY JET OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MILLIBARS...A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT 250 MILLIBARS WILL PROVIDE MECHANISMS FOR STRONG LIFT TODAY. FEEL THAT PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION. GIVEN GFS QPF AMOUNTS AND SLIGHTLY COLDER THICKNESSES DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. ALSO ADDED EASTERN NORFOLK COUNTY INTO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ATOP BLUE HILL. PLEASE REFER TO WSWBOX FOR DETAILS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF PRIOR TO 00Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW GRAINS OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MAIN MECHANISMS FOR LIFT DEPART...THERE IS LEFTOVER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BELOW 700 MILLIBARS WITH AIR DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT. LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... CLIPPER LOW WITH ITS SUPPORTING UPPER TROF WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLDER AIR MASS ARRIVES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BOTH NAM AND GFS PASS THE LOW CENTER TO OUR NORTH...THEN REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH. BUT LIMITED MOISTURE...NOT ALWAYS DISTRIBUTED WELL IN THE VERTICAL (DRY SPOTS). SO WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY...AND DIMINISHING EVERYWHERE BUT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TOWARD EVENING. FROM QPF AND TOOLS...WILL GO WITH 1-3 INCHES MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NH...CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW. COLDER AIR THEN POURS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND DESTABILIZES THE AIRMASS. THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF WIND TO THE SURFACE AS GUSTS. GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE 25-30 KNOTS WITH SOME FAVORED ELEVATIONS AND COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOWER 30S OF KNOTS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 27-30 KTS LOOK POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...A POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE CLIPPER WILL BRING SUFFICIENT COLD AIR SO THAT OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW...MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OF PROVINCETOWN AND TRURO. DRY WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH WARMING TEMPS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TRIES TO ORGANIZE A COLD AIR POOL OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC AND/OR NORTHERN ALASKA...BUT ANYTHING THEY FORM STILL LOOKS MEAGER COMPARED WITH THE POOL OVER ASIA. SO THE PACIFIC ZONAL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECASTABLE FUTURE. THUS THE COOL-DOWN MIDWEEK SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AND FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY ALL TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION. PLEASE REFER TO THE TAFS FOR DETAILS. MARINE... WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. AFTER A SHORT PAUSE...WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MIXING OF UPPER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER AND TRAILING COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING GALE FORCE GUSTS TO THE SURFACE TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MIXING THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WIND ON FRIDAY. HYDROLOGY... FLOOD STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD AND MIDDLETOWN. PLEASE REFER TO FLSBOX FOR DETAILS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CTZ002>004 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAZ007-013>017 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. NH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR NHZ011-012-015 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. RI...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RIZ001 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RIZ002>004 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254-255 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM... ma AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 235 PM MST MON JAN 23 2006 .DISCUSSION... PATTERN CHANGE ALREADY IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AS AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES ITS SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE NRN BAJA OF CA. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING A DECENT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT AS SOUTHERLY MID- LEVEL FLOW TAPS INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE AND WORKS IT NORTHWARD INTO NM. THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT INTO THE SWRN US AS AN UPSTREAM STORM SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE NRN BRANCH OF JET STREAM GIVES THIS CUTOFF FEATURE A BOOST IN THE REAR. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. THE PCPN CHANCES/TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL ON HOW LONG THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE SWRN US. ONE MORE CAVEAT WILL BE HOW DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL DIG...WHICH MAY ALSO ASSIST IN TRAJECTORY OF UPPER LOW. GFS IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH UPPER LOW COMPARED TO THE 12Z NAM/CANADIAN/NOGAPS OR ECMWF. GOING WITH THE CONSENSUS MAY NOT BE THE ROUTE TO GO AS THE GFS MAY HAVE A VALID SLOWER SOLUTION. INHERITED POP GRIDS HAVE A SLIGHT WEIGHT TOWARD THE NAM TRACK/TIMING...BUT WILL NUDGE POPS SOMEWHAT CLOSER THE GFS AS THIS MODEL HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT POSITION AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC80 ANALYSIS. PRETTY TRANQUIL AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER 500MB WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT FROM A SW TO MORE OF SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THE CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD START TO WORK NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. A PRETTY EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD DECK IS PROGGED FOR TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING OVER SW NM. PWATS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME WITH 12Z VALUES NEAR 0.25 INCH AT EL PASO AND 0.16 INCH AT KABQ...HOWEVER READINGS HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP. A TOP DOWN EFFECT MAY BE IN ORDER FOR TUE AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CRUISE INTO THE SW CWFA. VIRGA SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ISOLD PCPN WORDING FOR NOW. THE MOISTURE SURGE WILL TAKE SHAPE TUE NIGHT WITH UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST. AGAIN...TRACK WILL BE CRUCIAL...BUT ANTICIPATE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE SW AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NAM PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN ZONES WED/WED NIGHT...BUT THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF UPPER LOW WILL DETERMINE WHERE HEAVIEST QPF WILL FALL. A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS SUGGESTED BY EARLIER SHIFTS...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS AND WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR PCPN ON THUR AS GFS IS SLOWER AND WRAP AROUND PCPN MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NRN ZONES. AS AN ADDITIONAL NOTE... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHTNING BOLTS BENEATH UPPER LOW AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA COMPLIMENTS OF STRONG LIFT. HPC GRAPHICS INDICATE A LOW PROBABILITY FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE GILA AS WELL AS THE NW MOUNTAINS FOR DAYS 2 AND 3. STAY TUNED... DECREASED DIURNAL TEMP RANGES FOR THE MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME DUE TO CLOUD COVER INHIBITING INCOMING SOLAR AS WELL AS RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PCPN CHANCES. UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND. APPEARS BRUNT OF ENERGY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NRN UNITED STATES WITH A SRN FEATURE TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION. STRENGTH AND TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH THIS STORM WITH THE GFS SWINGING A FAIRLY WEAK CLOSED LOW THROUGH NRN MEXICO. DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT REASON TO ADJUST INHERITED POPS ATTM FOR THIS PERIOD. DPORTER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 13 47 25 45 / 0 0 5 40 GALLUP.......................... 5 51 24 46 / 0 0 30 50 GRANTS.......................... 7 49 22 47 / 0 0 30 40 GLENWOOD........................ 23 59 32 54 / 0 0 50 60 CHAMA........................... 4 44 12 42 / 0 0 0 40 LOS ALAMOS...................... 13 48 23 44 / 0 0 5 40 RED RIVER....................... -2 41 9 39 / 0 0 0 20 TAOS............................ 0 49 15 44 / 0 0 0 20 SANTA FE........................ 15 48 23 45 / 0 0 5 40 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 17 49 24 46 / 0 0 5 40 ESPANOLA........................ 11 51 20 49 / 0 0 0 30 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 25 53 32 50 / 0 0 10 40 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 21 55 30 51 / 0 0 10 40 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 20 52 29 48 / 0 0 10 40 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 21 54 30 50 / 0 0 20 40 SOCORRO......................... 20 56 31 52 / 0 0 20 40 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 12 45 22 40 / 0 0 10 40 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 14 49 20 44 / 0 0 10 30 CARRIZOZO....................... 21 52 29 51 / 0 0 20 20 RUIDOSO......................... 18 51 25 48 / 0 0 20 30 RATON........................... 11 52 18 46 / 0 0 0 10 LAS VEGAS....................... 16 51 23 43 / 0 0 0 30 ROY............................. 21 50 25 47 / 0 0 0 10 CLAYTON......................... 25 55 26 51 / 0 0 0 5 SANTA ROSA...................... 21 57 27 52 / 0 0 0 10 TUCUMCARI....................... 21 57 28 52 / 0 0 0 10 FORT SUMNER..................... 23 58 29 53 / 0 0 0 10 CLOVIS.......................... 26 57 29 52 / 0 0 0 20 PORTALES........................ 25 59 29 53 / 0 0 0 20 ROSWELL......................... 27 57 35 53 / 0 0 5 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 46 nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 310 PM EST MON JAN 23 2006 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...COOL AIR WEDGE HAS FINALLY BROKEN DOWN ACROSS THE AREA...EVIDENT IN WIDESPREAD SWLY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST. PREVALENT CLOUD COVER STILL PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AN EARLIER EROSION OF THE WEDGE ALLOWED FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS ROSE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS FROM 60-65 HAS ALLOWED A BIT OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SRN GA AND ARE MOVING NE TOWARD OUR ZONES ATTM. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER AS WELL. CONCERNING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE GFS IS QUITE FAST WITH THE SYSTEM AND HAS IT THROUGH A LITTLE AFTER 12Z TUE. THE NAM SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION...MOVING IT THROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TUE. PLAN TO KEEP CHC POPS ALL NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER POPS THIS EVE ACROSS SE GA WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY EXISTS. THEN...OVERNIGHT HAVE HIGHEST POPS TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT WHERE BETTER FRONTAL FORCING WILL EXIST. HAVE LIMITED THUNDER TO SRN THIRD OF CWA THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO PRECIP...IT APPEARS FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT AS DENSE AS THIS MORNING. SW H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 30 TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT ABOVE A VERY MOIST AND NEARLY SATURATED LLVL. NAM AND RUC SFC CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ALONG WITH NAM SFC VSBY FIELDS INDICATE WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST VSBY ALONG THE COAST. WILL PROBABLY SEE SEA FOG SET UP AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST. HAVE PUT AREAS OF FOG INTO ALL AREAS EXCEPT EXTREME OUTER WATERS AND WILL MENTION LOCALLY DENSE. /JRL PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE MORE SUBDUED THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NAM. AS A RESULT OF SLOWER MORE SUBTLE PROGRESSION...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO PERSIST UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON JUST ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND SC ZONES. AFTER THE FRONT LURCHES THROUGH THE AREA AND PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATES...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING FROPA OCCURS WEDNESDAY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE BUT COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...TEMPS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. /WMS && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THU AND FRI BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST ON SAT AND SUN AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WILL STILL BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE OF POP LATE IN THE FORECAST WITH ONLY MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SUN-MON WHEN NEXT FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO PUSH THROUGH. TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE LOWS WILL STILL BE IN THE 30S. WEEKEND WILL SEE MILDER TEMPS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. && .AVIATION...ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING VSBYS AND CIGS IN THE IFR/LIFR CAT. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS HEADING TOWARDS THE SAV TERM AS THE WARM SECTOR MAKES ITS WAY NORTH. THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED IMPROVEMENT WITH MODELS ONCE AGAIN SHOWING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS AFTER SUNSET. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CB FOR SAV THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR POSSIBILITY FOR TS. AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER IT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT THUS CUTTING OFF ANY RAIN AND CONDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 15Z. && .MARINE...SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW...AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FT OVER THE OUTER GA WATERS DUE TO SOME PERSISTENT SWELL. SEA FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WILL WORD CWF WITH AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE WITH VSBY LESS THAN 3/4 NM. WEAK FROPA TUESDAY WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS TO INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE EVENING. SHOULD SEE SEAS OVER AMZ374 DECREASE BELOW 6 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE WHILE...BUT THE INCREASING WINDS WILL BRING SEAS IN THE OUTER GA WATERS BACK UP TO 6 FEET BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MARINE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK NE AND E WINDS WILL BECOME S ON SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM/FRONT. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AMZ374. && $$ JRL/WMS/PAY/REV sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 130 PM MST MON JAN 23 2006 .DISCUSSION...AT 20Z A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE THE RULE WITH SOME WINDS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE PRETTY MUCH BEEN REACHED ALREADY WITH MOST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MORNING FORECAST...AND AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...THE RUC SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCY FORECAST CALLS FOR PRESSURES TO CONTINUE TO RISE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THORUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND THE GRADIENT TO REMAIN TIGHT. HOWEVER DECOUPLING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABRUPTLY JUST BEFORE SUNSET AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WEST SHOULD DROP OFF. CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE LAARGE SCALE ERN PAC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NEXT WEEK OR SO...RESULTING MOSTLY RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND KEEPING THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FROM DEVELOPING INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHT HE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES AND CLOUDS INCREASE A BIT AS A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE ETA12 SHOWS ONLY A SMALL AREA OF WEAK MID TO LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM AROUND THE BLKHLS AND LAYER RH STAYS PRETTY MUCH BELOW 40 PCNT. WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST FOR THU FOR NOW. EXTENDED...LATEST GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DYNAMICS WITH TROUGH NOT VERY ORGANIZED...BUT SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL FRONT. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ALL TWEB ROUTES WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. && .UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA UNTIL 5 PM. WY...NONE. && $$ CARPENTER/RUDGE sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 955 AM MST MON JAN 23 2006 .DISCUSSION...AT 15Z THE SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDRY WAS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND A JET STREAK EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW WAS ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA. THE 15Z RUC WAS SHOWING FAIRLY STRONG 850 MB LEVEL WINDS (55+ KTS OVER ERN MT) THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNON HOURS INTO PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT ABOUT MAX HEATING TIME. TODAY...WINDS OVER NWRN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE AND HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST SOUNTIES SOUTH DAKOTA...EVEN THOUGH FORECAST SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ARE JUST BARELY BUMPING UP INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA SPEEDS...AND EVEN THOUGH WE DON'T HAVE THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND FULL HEATING TO MAKE A SOLID HIGH WIND FORECAST I THINK WE'LL BE CLOSE IN A FEW AREAS. WILL PUT IT OUT WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. OTHERWISE EXPECT A ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY JUST WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. FROM EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. READINGS 30F ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST ALLOWING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO RACE TOWARD REGION AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IT LOOKS DRY FOR NOW. EXTENDED...AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON TRACKING IT WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS ARE THEN HAVING TROUBLE WITH TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 35+ KTS AFFECTING PTNS OF ALL TWEB RTES. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. && .UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WY...NONE. && $$ CARPENTER/RUDGE sd