AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 810 PM EDT MON OCT 9 2000 WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW BRISK NLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. HOWEVER 22Z RUC ADVERTISES A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND CAA BY 09Z...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO GO LIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SCATTERED JET STREAM CIRRUS CROSSING THE CWFA. DO NOT EXPECT THIS CLOUDINESS TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. MAY SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS TONIGHT. TLH HAS AN EXCELLENT CHANCE OF BREAKING ITS RECORD LOW FOR THE 10TH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY 43 DEGREES SET IN 1972. WE HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (MIASPSTLH) TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN FAVORED AREAS. MARINE: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THIS TIME...SO WILL KEEP SCA GOING. STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATERS COMBINED WITH A COLLAPSING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS BRISK OVER OUR MARINE ZONES FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. FEEDBACK IS ALWAYS WELCOME. .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY AFTERNOON ALL FLORIDA ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE ZONES. TJT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 840 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2000 AFTER MUCH CONSIDERATION...WE WILL NOT UPDATE THE ZONES THIS EVENING. HAD GIVEN THOUGHT TO RAISING MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT ALONG AND S OF I-20...BUT AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST RUC DATA IT APPEARS THAT THE THICK CI OVERHEAD WILL BE GONE BY MORNING. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING...WHICH WOULD TAKE US NEAR THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED MINS. 05 .SHV...NONE. la SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1024 AM CDT MON OCT 9 2000 SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. 9 AM AND 10 AM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY... COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S...ARE ABOUT THE SAME TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. WILL CALL FOR THIS AFTERNOON/S HIGHS OF 55 TO 60 IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS ARE THINNER AND HIGHER AND SHOULD ALLOW MORE HEATING TO 50 TO 55 SOUTH UNDER THICKER LOWER CLOUDS AND PROBABLY LESS SUNSHINE. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MESO ETA AND RUC RUNS WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. .LCH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO HIGH ISLAND OUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES. .LA...SCA GMZ450-455-470-475. .TX...SCA GMZ450-470. .PRELIM NUMBERS... BPT 55/43/67/50 0000 LCH 54/42/66/48 0000 LFT 54/42/67/48 0000 AEX 57/37/64/42 0000 20 / SPARKS la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1010 PM EDT MON OCT 9 2000 UPDATE CONCERN IS WITH MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT. 00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL CONUS WITH LOWS OVER THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA WITH 30-50C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 850-700MB AT KINL/CWPL/KMPX PER 00Z SOUNDING. 00Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-500MB RH <20 PERCENT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. IR/WANING VIS SATELLITES SHOW A FEW CIRRUS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG. 00Z RUC KEEPS THIS SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT SO DO NOT BELIEVE THESE CLOUDS WILL BE A FACTOR. AFTERNOON/EVENING CONTRAILS HAVE FADED...LEAVING SKIES JUST PLAIN CLEAR. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTH-SOUTH OVER WESTER WISCONSIN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING OVER CWA...AS FORECAST BY 12Z-18Z ETA/21Z-00Z RUC. KSAW/KIMT AND OTHERS STATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN CWA HAVE QUICKLY DECOUPLED AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES PLUMMETED AFTER SUNSET...WITH KIWD GOING FROM 53 TO 37 IN ONE HOUR AND KIMT/KSAW SHOWING SIMILARLY FAST DROPS. DEWPOINTS HAVE SLOWLY RECOVERED INTO THE LOW-MID 20S...AFTER DECENT MIXING DURING THE DAY DROPPED KSAW DEWPOINT TO 14F AND KIWD TO 16F. ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND HAS HELPED SLOW THE TEMPERATURE DROP. EVEN WITH INITIAL TEMPERATURE PLUNGE...EXPECT THE DROP TO SLOW LEAVING GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. .MQT...NONE. JHB mi WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV 845 PM PDT MON OCT 9 2000 SYSTEM COMING IN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN MODELS FORECAST EARLIER AND FURTHER SOUTH ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SIERRA HAS GENERATED CONVECTION MAINLY WEST OF CREST BUT EVEN SOME DEVELOPMENT OCCURING IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA IN AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. BAROCLINIC ZONE BECOMING MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AS UPPER JET DIVES INTO BASE OF TROUGH. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN BELOW ADVISORY BUT HAD ISSUED WIND ADVISORY ZONE 1 DUE TO LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS THAT CLOSED HIGHWAY 95. MOST RAWS DATA INDICATING WIND HAS DECREASED ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH DATA AVAILABLE IN THAT AREA. WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE BUT KEEP FORECAST WITH MENTION OF LOCALLY WINDY. AS EXPECTED STRONG WINDS ALOFT HAVE SHADOWED OUT PRECIP OVER EXTREME WESTERN VALLEYS BUT AS TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST SHOULD SEE DECREASE IN WIND TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. DRI WIND PROFILER EAST OF RENO AIRPORT IS STARTING TO SHOW DECREASE. I DON'T THINK THE MODELS INITIALIZED VORT MAX OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST VERY WELL THOUGH THE RUC ISN'T TOO FAR OFF. NGM DOES PICK UP ON THE MID-LEVEL JET MAX MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SIERRA AND THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP GOOD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVING INTO SIERRA. NOT MUCH MOISTURE BUT DYNAMICS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TO GENERATE SOME PRECIP. COLDER AIR IS STILL WEST OF CWA. MTN TOP TEMPS JUST BEGINNING TO DIP WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL DOWN TO AROUND 7500-8000 FEET. LIMITED REPORTS INDICATE SNOW FALLING OVER SONORA PASS. SEVERAL FEATURES TO ROTATE THROUGH 500 MB TROUGH NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP SOME VERTICAL MOTION AND INSTABILITY GOING. BEST FOCUS IS OVER MONO COUNTY WHICH MAY NEED TO HAVE WARNING EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW NIGHT BUT WILL SEE HOW MUCH MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND LOW TOMORROW. WILL BE UPDATING MAINLY TO TOUCH UP FIRST PERIOD FORECAST. DP .REV...WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 6000 FEET TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR ZONES 2...71...72. WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 7000 FEET TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR ZONE 73. nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1003 PM EDT MON OCT 9 2000 RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWING BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION REORIENTING FROM NORTHNORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST...CORROBORATES TREND RUC AND MESOETA EXPECTED WITH COLD LOWLEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT. SO DIMINISHED WORDING OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES IN FAR WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND DRY SOUTH AND WEST. LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS PER CURRENT READINGS. REST UNCHANGED. ...GIORDANO PIT 35 56 39 63 / 30 20 10 10 HLG 36 57 40 64 / 30 10 10 10 MGW 36 58 40 64 / 30 10 10 10 ZZV 34 60 39 65 / 30 10 5 10 PHD 34 58 39 64 / 30 10 5 10 FKL 32 53 36 61 / 40 30 10 10 DUJ 32 52 36 60 / 40 30 10 10 LBE 33 55 39 64 / 40 30 10 10 BTP 34 54 36 62 / 40 30 10 10 IDI 33 54 38 63 / 40 30 10 10 ODM 32 52 34 62 / 40 30 10 10 .PBZ... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1013 AM CDT MON OCT 9 2000 WELCOME THIS OCTOBER WEATHER WITH OPEN ARMS TODAY...WITH BRILLIANT SUNSHINE...AND NOT MUCH ELSE. SLY GRADIENT STGR...ESPLY W...AND DIFFICULTY TODAY WL BE HOW MUCH OF INVERSION IS MIXED OUT. MRNG RAOBS INDICATE WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTING IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN OF A RETREATING HIGH...WARMER AIR AVAILABLE IN THE NW WHERE STGR FLOW INDICATED...AND LESS FLOW AND A DEEPER COLD LAYER IN THE SE. JUST LOOKING AT THE BASE MORNING RAOBS...ONE MIGHT EXPECT ARND 10F RANGE SE TO NW WITH THE THERMAL AND WIND PARAMETERS...AND THAT IS IN THE FORECAST. WIND TRENDS LOOK GOOD IN FCST IN COMPARISON TO PROFILERS AND RUC/MESOETA TREND...AND SEE NO REASON TO TINKER WITH THE GOING FCST AS WL LIKELY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE IF ANYTHING. STILL THEY RIDE... OVERALL...NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE QUITE ELEVATION DEPENDENT ON TEMPS...ESPLY NIGHTTIME. .FSD...NONE CHAPMAN sd SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 230 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2000 12Z U/A ANALYSIS SHOWS GREATEST AREA OF WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PUSHED E TOWARDS S-CNTRL TX. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE PERSISTENT CLOUD LYR TO ERODE FROM E TO W DURING THE AFTN AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONT TNGT PER RUC T-SECTS. THE WRN ZONES MAY TAKE UNTIL AFT MIDNGT TO BREAKOUT BUT ANTICIPATE ALL LOCATIONS TO BE PC BY 08Z IF NOT SOONER. WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL CONDS FCST LOWS WED MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK. ATTM BELIEVE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NW ZONES WHERE A FREEZE HAS ALREADY OCCURRED TWICE AND A WARNING IS NO LONGER REQUIRED. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A LGT FREEZE MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE SW AND S-CNTRL ZONES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM. AFT COORD WITH MAF HAVE DECIDED NOT TO POST A FRZ WARNING FOR THIS AREA AND LET NXT SHIFT REEVALUATE. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TMRW THANKS TO RISING H8-H7 TEMPS AND MORE SUN. STILL PREFER THE COOLER FAN/MAV NUMBERS OVR MOS. BY WED STRONG H2 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM THE BAY OF AK AND HELP DEEPEN THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CURRENTLY NR 40N/126W. THE RESULT WILL BE A LARGE AND BROAD CUT OFF LOW TYPE FEATURE. TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH TROP DEPR OLIVA WILL STREAM NE ALONG THE SUBTROP JET AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAY BRING SOME SCT PRECIP TO THE WRN ZONES. THIS IS ALREADY WELL HANDLED IN THE FCST. OTRW EXPECT WARMING CONDS TO CONT WITH PC SKIES. EXTENDED FCST...MUCH WILL BE DEPENDANT ON WHAT TRANSPIRES WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW OVR THE ROCKIES. MRF/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING A CUT OFF THROUGH SAT WHILE THE NOGAPS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. AGREE WITH NCEP THAT THE MRF/ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO WILL PLAY THAT ROUTE FOR NOW. IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT THE ASSOC PACIF FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FA ON FRI AND STALL OR BECOME Q-STNRY SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTH PLAINS. WK IMPULSES WILL LIKELY EJECT FM THE LOW AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP BOTH FRI AND SAT. THANKS FOR COORD CALL MAF. PRELIM NUMBERS...SUBJECT TO CHANGE... FRIONA 032/060/041/063 0002 BROWNFIELD 034/061/044/068 0002 TULIA 033/061/042/064 0000 LUBBOCK 035/061/045/069 0000 CHILDRESS 034/064/043/068 0000 ASPERMONT 035/063/046/070 0000 .LUB...NONE. TAYLOR tx SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 925 AM CDT MON OCT 9 2000 LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA AT MID-MORNING. ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ISSUES FOR THE UPDATE. THE 00Z NCEP MODELS AND LATEST RUC OFFER NO HELP. KHGX AND SURROUNDING 88DS INDICATE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WV/IR/VIS IMAGERY PICK UP FROM THERE AND INDICATE RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL UPDATE TO LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF I-10 IN LINE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN WORDING...AND CHANGE LOW POPS WORDING IN THE CNTRL COUNTIES TO SHOWERS. WILL ALSO REMOVE LATE WORDING FOR THE SECOND PERIOD POPS...AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY BREAK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW AN INVERSE PATTERN...HIGHEST IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE NO RAIN IS EXPECTED...AND LOWEST IN THE SOUTH WHERE RAIN INDUCED EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND A THICK OVERCAST SKY WILL KEEP A LID ON TEMPS. WILL UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS FROM ONE CATEGORY FAR SOUTH...TO 1/2 CATEGORY CNTRL...TO LEAVING THE CURRENT FORECAST ALONE IN THE FAR NORTH. WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST. .KHGX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE AREAS. 31/47/35 UPDATE PRELIMS... CLL EW 056/043 058/050 065 414 ** IAH RW 053/045 059/052 065 724 *** CHANGED WEATHER AND POPS 1ST PERIOD GLS RW 055/050 056/055 063 735 ** RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MON 10/09 CLL 65 1925 IAH 69 1970 GLS 67 1976 RECORD LOWS TUE 10/10 CLL 42 1990 IAH 44 1976 GLS 52 1945 tx SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 300 AM MDT TUE OCT 10 2000 ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STILL EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEK MAKING FOR CHALLENGING FORECASTS. COULD SEE FIRST PROLONGED UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR ERN SAN JUANS...IF ALL ELEMENTS COME TOGETHER. CURRENTLY: LATEST METARS SHOWED LEE SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CO PLAINS. "POCKETS" OF SC CONTINUED...AND WERE FORMING...IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS IN THE SAN LUIS AND UPPER AR RIVER VALLEYS PER FOG SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC MODEL ANIMATIONS SHOWED POTENT SYSTEM COMING ON-SHORE NR SAN FRANCISCO. NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS INTENSIFIED...PER LIGHTNING DETECTION DATA...OVER NV IN ULJ'S LFQ. STILL 100-130KTS ULJ DIGGING ON THE W SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. TDA: SURPRISINGLY...ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS EXCELLENTLY VERIFING WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN AND WEST COAST ULJ/SHORTWAVES AT 06Z/10. WRN US SYSTEM SHOULD CLOSE OFF IN THE NRN GREAT BASIN BY TUE AFTN. IN RESPONSE...LOWER/MID TROP WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS CWFA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS STILL OUT W. 700MB TEMPS WARM CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED +5 TO +8C...WITH AVN THE WARMEST...ACROSS ERN 1/2 OF CO THIS AFTN. STILL SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND IN WRN CO. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH WITH FEEBLE MID-LEVEL QG ASCENT. NOT MUCH OCCURRED YDA... EXCEPT FOR SOME SHRA...PER POST SATELLITE/LIGHTNING DATA INSPECTION. WILL MAINTAIN UNCERTAINTY POP TERMS FOR SW/CNTRL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT UPPER AR RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH. OTHERWISE...CURRENT ZFP LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. TNGT: UPPER SYSTEM VERY SLOWLY MIGRATES EWD WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASING. EXCELLENT 700MB WIND DIRECTION(190-210) FOR OROGRAPHIC ASCENT ACROSS THE ERN SAN JUANS. WIND SPEEDS PROGGED TO BE 20- 30KTS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON 700MB TEMPS...THOUGH. AVN CONTINUES TO BE THE COOLEST(0 TO -2C) WHILE ETA IS AROUND 0C AND NGM IS +2 TO +4C. VERTICAL MOISTURE DEPTH CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED AOB 600MB. MID-LEVEL STATIC STABILITIES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 6.0- 6.5 C/KM...WHICH COULD ENHANCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. POTENTIAL SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY START HIGH THEN COULD LOWER TO AROUND 10K FT... DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF DIABATIC AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING. MAY START TO SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE TNGT. MID-LEVEL(700-500MB) IMPLIED QG VERTICAL MOTION INDICATING SUBSIDENCE DURING THE NGT WITH MOST OF THE LIFT 500-300MB LAYER. SNOW MODEL INDICATES POSSIBLE 3-5 INCHES AOA 10K FT LATE TNGT. SW MID-LEVEL FLOW NOT ALL THAT GREAT FOR PRODUCING OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CNTRL MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CWFA...LOWER/MID TROP WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ALONG WITH POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER. THIS MAKES FOR CHALLENGING LOW TEMPS...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOS TEMPS ARE INDICATING. ACTUALLY AVN MOS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD WARMER WED AM TEMPS FOR 4 RUNS NOW. IT MAY ONLY GET DOWN INTO THE 40S IN THE SERN CO PLAINS. MAY NEED TO ADJUST CURRENT LOW TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS. WITH NUMEROUS UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT ELEMENTS BECOMING JUXTAPOSED...WILL NOT BOOST 60/61 POP WORDING FORECAST AND GIVE IT ANOTHER MODEL RUN. ALSO...WILL NOT LOCK-IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR LATE 2ND PERIOD POTENTIAL EVENT. ALL IN ALL...CURRENT ZFP LOOKS GOOD. WED: MAIN NRN STREAM SYSTEM DRIFTS NWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH SRN CA/GREAT BASIN WITH PARENT 100-130KT ULJ PROGGED ACROSS WRN CO BY WED AFTN. CERTAINLY MAKES FOR A COMPLEX FORECAST. FAVORED LOWER/MID-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE FOR ERN SAN JUAN. MOST OF THE POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION COULD COME IN PERIODIC WAVES. AGAIN...MUCH OF THE IMPLIED QG ASCENT IS 500-300MB LAYER. MODEL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST 500-300MB LAYER "DRY" SLOT WILL BI-SECT SW-NERN CO WED-THU AND SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN PROGGED ULJ POSITION. AROUND 80% RH MOISTURE STILL REMAINS AOB 600MB FOR SWRN CO. 700MB TEMPS DON'T CHANGE MUCH WED. IN FACT...AVN SLIGHTLY WARMS TEMPS. SNOW LEVEL STILL COULD REMAIN AROUND 10K FT...IF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES DURING THE DAY. IF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS GREATER...THEN SNOW LEVEL MAY LOWER. BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWS SHOULD BE AOA 9500 FT. SNOW MODEL RUNNING MARGINAL 12HR SNOW ADVISORY NUMBERS AND SEEMS LIKELY. NOT SURE IF WE COULD MAKE THE 24HR WARNING NUMBERS...TOO. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AND THIS IS TOO FAR OUT FOR AN ADVISORY. PLENTY OF TIME FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN FOR DAYSHIFT TO MAKE THE CALL. CURRENT ZFP FOR SWRN/CNTRL MOUNTAINS LOOKS TO HAVE IT WELL COVERED. ELSEWHERE...BORA PATTERN DOESN'T BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SERN CO MOUNTAINS EAST FACING SLOPE AND PLAINS. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE SHOULD BE VERY LOW OR NIL POPS...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS. EXTENDED(THU-SAT): SOME HINTS OF LOW/MID MOIST CONVEYER BELT MOVING OUT OF NM INTO SERN CO IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MIGRATING ACROSS WRN CO WED NGT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY MENTION FOR SERN CO PLAINS. 60-72HR AVN/CANADIAN/NOGAPS MODELS...INCLUDING LATEST MRF...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SW-NE 100-130KT ULJ WILL MOVE ACROSS CO WED NGT/THU AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES OVER NRN ROCKIES. CANADIAN MODEL STILL SUGGESTING SPLIT FLOW WITH SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS DESERT SW THU-SAT. MRF SUSPICIOUSLY "BLOWS UP" A SHORTWAVE IN ERN CO BY FRI. ALL OF THESE MODELS INDICATING MORE OF AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS MOVING THROUGH LATE THU-FRI AND INTO THE PLAINS SAT. MRF IS THE FASTEST. IF 60-72 HR PATTERN VERIFIES...MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WLY ACROSS WRN/CNTRL CO THU-FRI. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FAVORED UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM SWRN CO MOUNTAINS TO CNTRL...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH/QUANTITY IS LESS "WET." POTENTIAL NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISHES FOR CNTRL MOUNTAINS BY SAT. "DRY SLOT" DEEPENS CONSIDERABLE ACROSS SERN CO MOUNTAINS/PLAINS THU-SAT...WITH ANY POTENTIAL RH FURTHER W/N. AIR MASS BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...SO NO DRAMATIC COOL DOWN ANTICIPATED. CURRENT EFP LOOKS GOOD WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANGES EXPECTED. WILL ADDRESS POTENTIAL SNOWFALL...BUT NOT MENTION ACCUMULATIONS... FOR SWRN/CNTRL MOUNTAINS IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK AS A "HEADS UP" FOR THE MEDIA/PUBLIC. .PUB...NONE. METZE co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 331 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2000 THE SUN SHOULD FINALLY RETURN WITH WARMER TEMPS FOR THE REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH HAVE HUNG TOUGH THIS WEEKEND WERE STILL OVER PARTS OF NM AND THE AREAS SW OF THE PECOS RIVER. A ZONAL FLOW WAS NOTED 700MB AND UP...WITH A LIGHT SE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ANALYSIS AT 850 AND 700MB INDICATED AN INVERSION AROUND 700MB...WITH TEMPS FROM AROUND 850 TO 780 BELOW FREEZING AT 10/00Z. THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. THE MESO-ETA/RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWED TEMPS ALOFT FINALLY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING. WITH SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOCAL NORMS OF 80F FOR A HIGH WILL PROBABLY NOT BE REACHED TODAY. HAVE LEFT PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE COUNTIES TODAY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. WARMER FOR WED AND AFTERWARD WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS. LEE- SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP WED...THUS HAVE WORDED ALL LOCALITIES EXPECT FOR THE SOUTH IN THE 15-25 RANGE. A DIGGING SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST KEEPS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR T-STORMS IN THE PICTURE...THURS AND REMAINDER FRIDAY. WENT MORE WITH THE NGM/AVN WITH THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AFTER 24 HOURS. THE AVN AT 72 HOURS...AND THE NOGAPS INDICATED THE DRYLINE MAY BE MAKING AN APPEARANCE BEFORE THE WEEKEND. STILL WAITING TO REVIEW THE NEW MRF BEFORE MAKING BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BIG COOLDOWN AFTER THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS BELOW WENT CLOSER WITH THE WARMER NGM. THE AVN IS SOMETIMES TOO SLOW TO WARM UP THE LOWER LAYERS. MAF 64/43/72/49 0001 LSA 63/41/70/48 0001 E41 66/43/73/50 0001 6R6 65/48/74/52 0001 MRF 63/37/66/45 0001 CNM 67/44/73/49 0002 .MAF... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. BOYD tx SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 606 AM MST TUE OCT 10 2000 SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NEVADA AND ARIZONA BEFORE STALLING OUT TONIGHT. BECAUSE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL HALT ONCE THE FRONT STALLS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER AIR WILL THEN FINALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY FRIDAY...LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. DISCUSSION...DOING SOME ONE-THE-FLY REWORKING OF THE ZONES AS SHOWERS/TSTMS BEGIN TO FILL IN TO OUR SW AND HEAD THIS WAY. WITH SO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY FORMING OVER THE CWA, IT'S NOW HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE ENOUGH SUN TO GET DECENT CAPES. EVEN IF WE DO GET A LITTLE SUN, 0-3KM SHEAR OF 50-60KTS NEEDS AT LEAST 1000J/KG OF CAPE TO GET MINI SUPERCELLS GOING, AND BOTH THE 06Z MESOETA AND 09Z RUC2 BARELY HAVE CAPES ABOVE ZERO. PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY, THOUGH, SO ONCE THE SUN COMES UP, SHOWERS COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE BEYOND WHAT WE HAVE ALREADY. HAVE UPDATED ZONES AND THE SPS TO REMOVE THE SEVERE THREAT, SWITCH TO AREAL TERMS FOR ALL ZONES, AND LOWER TEMPS A NOTCH IN THE W. PYTLAK .TWC...NONE. az AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 930 AM EDT TUE OCT 10 2000 .DISC...RUC AND LATEST GOES-8 IMAGERY SUPPORT THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP ACROSS MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS WINDING DOWN AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BASED ON 88D IMAGERY AND SNOW REPORTS...I BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ACROSS 8/9/12/13. I ADJUSTED THE ZONE SPLITS A BIT AND PUT MEZ20 WTH 21 AND 22 AS WRAP AROUND WRKS INTO MEZ20 AND SHUD BE HVY ENUF TO RESULT IN MIXED RA AND SN OR JUST PLAIN SHSN THIS PM. WHAT SUN IS FOUND OVR SE NH AND FAR SW ME SHUD BE REPLACED BY BKN CLOUDS AS HEATING ALOWS SC DECK TO FILL IN. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. WRKZFP/WRKCWF AVBL ON "A". .CSTAL WTRS...BASED ON OBS AND FCST TRENDS WIL DOWNGRADE THE GLW TO SCA WTH THE MID MORNING UPDATE. SOME COSMETIC CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE TO LATER PERIODS. .GYX...SCA. ES me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 945 AM EDT TUE OCT 10 2000 CLOUDS BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM WESTERN MD... WV PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN VA AS UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST. 06Z ETA AND 09Z RUC SHOWING SOME LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 850 MB ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF CWA... SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE BALTIMORE AREA TO CLEAR OUT. KCCX/KLWX RADARS HAVE LIGHT RAIN MOVING FROM CENTRAL PA DOWN TOWARD NORTHEAST MD... AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES FOR THE BALTIMORE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. 12Z IAD SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 50S... THOUGH MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THAT. RAISED HIGH TEMPS WITH EARLIER UPDATE ACROSS THE CHO/SHD AREA. FWC/LAMP GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S DOWN THERE... AND WITH NEARLY FULL SUN THIS MORNING THEY RISEN QUICKLY ENOUGH THAT MID 60S IS REACHABLE. HIGHS AROUND 60 EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... THOUGH CLOUDINESS AND RAIN MAY BE A PROBLEM FOR AREAS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF BALTIMORE. KLWX VWP SHOWING 25 KNOT WINDS AT 3000 FT... AND NOW THAT SUN STARTING TO APPEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXPECTING MIXING TO WORK THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RAISED WINDS WITH EARLIER UPDATE... AND WILL MENTION GUSTY WITH THE WORDING THIS AFTERNOON. .LWX... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SCA FOR TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD PORTION OF CHESAPEAKE BAY. MARGRAF! md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 935 AM EDT TUE OCT 10 2000 RAIN/SNOW SHWRS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF OUR NYS ZNS ATTM IN ASSOCN WITH S/WV COMING ARND LARGE UPPER LO OVER NEW ENGLAND. LATEST MESO-ETA/RUC RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH 00Z MODEL SUITE IN SHIFTING THIS WV E OF THE RGN THIS AFTN. ALSO...HGTS SHUD START TO RISE AS UPPER VORTEX CONTS TO LIFT NWD. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DRYING/STABILIZATION BY 18Z. PRIND ARE THAT ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BRUSH AT LEAST NRN PTNS OF THE FA LTR TDY INTO THIS EVE. HOWEVER...SUPPLY OF MOIST/INSTAB SHUD BE LESS BY THIS TIME. ONLY WDLY SCTD LGT PCPN AT WORST IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR THIS UPDATE...WILL KEEP SKIES M/CLDY NRN SXNS AND MAINTAIN LO CHC POPS FOR -SHRA/-SHSN. INTERVALS OF SUN STILL LOOKS OK FOR THE TWIN TIERS WITH A STRAY FLRY/SPRINKLE. ACRS THE WYO VLY/POCONOS/SULLIVAN CNTY...A TREND TWDS P/SNY SEEMS FINE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO MAX TEMP FCST. WRK ZNS ARE OUT. FINALS COMING BY 10. .BGM...NONE. JUREWICZ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1041 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2000 WINDS INCREASING AS FORECAST. WILL REMOVE THE TEMPORAL WORDING IN MOST GROUPS, AND BOOST WINDS IN NW TO 20-30 AS VICI PROFILER CONTINUES WITH 35-40KT JUST OFF SURFACE AND LATEST RUC PROGS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. MESONET WINDS CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME WESTERLY COMPONENT IN SEVERAL AREAS, SO WILL ADJUST TO S-SW - ALTHOUGH RUC INDICATES THEY SHOULD RETURN MORE TO S BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS S ZONES AND INTO CENTRAL OK POSE A BIT OF A PROBLEM IN TERMS OF HOW TO WORD SKY CONDITIONS. WILL RESORT TO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CENTRAL AND S, AND STICK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR PTLY CLOUDY IN THE N. 24 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. ok