AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 1110 AM MDT SUN OCT 9 2005 ...EARLY SEASON WINTER WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVER FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT... .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... SURFACE COLD FRONT THRU VEL...PUC AND PGA AS OF 3 AM. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LOW TO STILL BE AN OPEN WAVE. THE LATEST RUC KEEPS IT OPEN THRU 18Z AND THE ETA40 CLOSES IT OFF JUST SE OF TH 4-CORNERS ABOUT 00Z. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THEREAFTER AND IT APPEARY ANY CLEARING FROM THE WEST WILL QUICKLY FILL IN WITH CLOUDS AS MOISTURE CIRCULATES AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO DROP DOWN THE FRONT RANGE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE THICKNESSES OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT REMAIN AT 550 OR HIGHER. EARLY THIS MORNING MOLAS PASS WAS REPORTING WET ROADS WITH SNOWFALL...BUT THAT WAS THE ONLY SNOW REPORT AVAILABLE. THE GFS HAS SLIGHTLY WARMER 700 MB TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH COLDEST TEMP OF -3 OVER GJT TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ETA IS ONE DEGREE COOLER AND KEEPS THIS AIR OVER GJT THRU MONDAY. WITH THE COOLEST AIR SOON TO ARRIVE...WILL KEEP THE WWA GOING. CANNOT SEE ANY GOOD REASONS TO CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST. THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND IT. MAX AND MIN TEMPS SHOULDN'T CHANGE MUCH AND POPS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH THRU THE PERIOD. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LOW MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUE FOR THE BEGINNING OF A DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME. HAVE LEFT SOME LOW POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUE AND EVEN A FEW TUE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LEFT OVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW. FLOW REMAINS NORTHWEST INTO FRI WITH ONE IMPULSE BRUSHING THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. WARMING TREND BEGINS BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS REACHING NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THU AND BEYOND. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR ZONES 4...9... 10...12...13...18 AND 19 THROUGH 3:00 PM MDT MONDAY. .UT...NONE. && CJC/EH/NL co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 855 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2005 .DISCUSSION...MAKING A FEW MINOR CHANGES FOR TONIGHT. AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA BEGINNING TO DRIFT NW FROM H500 LOW OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. ALSO A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CONTINUES MOVING WEST FROM EARLIER DAY STRATUS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WISCONSIN. CHANCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REFORM OVERNIGHT AS LAYER COOLS TO SATURATION. RUC MODEL ALSO HINTING AT FOG DEVELOPING NORTHERN SECTIONS. CURRENT T-TD DEPRESSION FAVORABLE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING AS DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN TODAY WITH SOME MOISTURE HAVING ADVECTED WESTWARD WITH TIME. WILL BE ADDING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT AND ALSO PATCHY FOG FOR ABOUT THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF CWA WHERE CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY EXPECTED./REV .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW STRATUS IN EASTERLY FLOW HAS PROGRESSED TO EDGE OF RIDGE AXIS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...APPEARS FURTHER MOVEMENT LIMITED BY THE RIDGE WITH WESTERN EDGE CONTINUING TO ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS STRATUS MAY BE AN ON AND OFF PROBLEM FOR A WHILE AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FOR SOME TIME. OTHERWISE...TEMPS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO REACH NORMAL LEVELS AS AIRMASS SLOW TO MODIFY AND UNFAVORABLE EAST WINDS. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE THE EJECTION AND EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF SOUTHWEST LOW. MODELS TEND TO FAVOR LIFTING IT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS BEFORE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO PUSH IT TO THE EAST LATER IN THE WEEK. THE INFLUENCE ON IOWA WL BE SOMEWHAT DELAYED OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST BY ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A WK SFC TROF PASSES THROUGH. FEEL THIS WL LIMIT OVERALL HEATING POTENTIAL ALONG WITH ANY THREAT FROM PATCHY STRATUS AS SEEN TODAY...AND HAVE GONE WITH MAV/MET BLEND. UPWARD VELOCITIES BEGIN INCREASING BY TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. HOWEVER... DEEPER SATURATION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS INTO WESTERN IA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. WITH THE LOW APPARENTLY IN NO HURRY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...WL SEE CHANCES OF PCPN LINGER FROM WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY ACRS THE CWA. HAVE TRIED TO LIMIT DIURNAL RANGES WITH RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND MOIST CONDITIONS. THE LOW BEGINS TO PUSH EAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES WITH DIMINISHING CLDS AND PCPN THREAT BY LATE THURSDAY. NEXT AMPLIFYING WAVE COMES ASHORE THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY AND RAPIDLY ADVANCES EAST IN STRONG WESTERLIES. WAA EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURE CLIMBING TO AND ABOVE NORMAL BY THAT TIME FRAME. APPEARS THAT SHORTWAVE WL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDWEST INTO NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER BEST FORCING AND SATURATION STAY NORTH OF IA AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY. SOME COOL DOWN BY DAY 7 AS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH SOME CAA. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ COGIL/REV ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 300 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2005 .DISCUSSION... PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PRECIP POSSIBILITY DURING THURS AND FRI. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSES AND GOES WV LOOP SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING NNE IN WESTERN MS. 12Z RAOBS SHOWED MID LEVEL DRY AIR BEING WHITTLED AWAY BY UPLIFTING MOISTURE. STILL A NARROW DRY POCKET ABOVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS HAS BEEN SWALLOWING UP MOST PRECIP ECHOES YIELDING ONLY VIRGA IN MOST SOUTHERN AREAS. STILL A FEW NARROW BANDS OF LEGIT SHOWER ACTIVITY...EVEN SOME WITH THUNDER...MOVING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN TN THIS AFTN. THESE APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH POCKETS OF PVA ROTATING NORTH AND SUB -10C AREA ON H5 ANALYSIS. THE RUC IS THE ONLY SHORT TERM MODEL THAT HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND WEAKENS THE VORT BANDS DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WITH HARDLY ANY ISENTROPIC LIFT AT ALL. ALSO TD DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL NEARLY 10-15F DEGREES. THEREFORE AM NOT LOOKING TO HAVE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POST SUNSET. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH ON AND OFF CLOUDS AT MULTIPLE LAYERS. OVERNIGHT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE OVERHEAD. THOUGH THE CENTER AND DEEP COLUMN RH WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY ON MON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOUGH TO BOOT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ON NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH SHOULD YIELD SOME BACKBUILDING STRATUS AND/OR BKN STRATOCU THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH THIS COUNTERACTING MINOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMING 850MB TEMPS HAVE GONE WITH SUB 70F HIGHS OVER NE CWA. THE STRATUS CLOUDS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER NE AND E AREAS ON MONDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT MINS UP THERE. TUES IS THE MOST CHALLENGING DAY ON TEMPS WITH OVER A TEN DEGREE SPREAD IN AVAILABLE MOS PROGS. THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SETUP FAVORS THE DAY TO BE THE WARMEST DURING THE WORKWEEK. THE NAM SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE ON H9-H8 MOISTURE AND THEREFORE MET GUIDANCE IS LOOKED AT AS MUCH TOO LOW. CONSIDERING SOME OF TODAYS MODERATE TEMPS /UPPER 60S/ SEEN IN CLEAR POCKETS...THINK THAT BY TUES WITH MORE SUN THAT THE WARM MAV IS LIKELY THE WAY TO TREND. HAVE GONE THAT ROUTE WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE WARMING FWC. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN HAS LITTLE CHANGES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH ALL ACTION BEING UPSTAIRS. AS DEEP WESTERN COAST TROUGH PULLS OUT...CUT OFF LOW PROGGED TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDS. THE 12Z GFS IS SLOWER AND MORE NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS TREND IS MORE AGREEABLE WITH OTHER LONG TERM MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF WHICH STILL KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. HAVE GUIDED BY THIS AND REMOVED ANY MENTION FOR POPS IN NW AREAS ON WEDS NIGHT. 12Z GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE REAMPLIFICATION OF THE WAVE AS A 250MB JET ROLLS IN FROM THE NW CONUS. THIS YIELDS SOME HIGHER RH AND OUTPUT QPF ON THURS NIGHT AND FRI UNDER THE GREATEST THICKNESS FALLS. THIS LOOKS A LITTLE SUSPICIOUS...AS TODAYS UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS FAILED IN MOISTENING UP THE COLUMN. DGEX PRODUCES QPF AS WELL BUT HAS CUT OFF LOW SITTING RIGHT OVER CWA WHICH IS AN OUTLYING SOLUTION. THEREFORE WILL KEEP DRY THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST. STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH CWA LATE ON SUN BUT THE MODELS SINCE LATE AUG HAVE TENDED TO BE TOO FAST WITH THESE AUTUMN COLD FRONTS SO WILL NOT BITE NOW. HAVE GONE WITH MOS COMPROMISE IN NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN WARMER MAV OVER THE REMAINING SHORT TERM PERIODS. AM NEAR HPC PROGS WHICH ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE MEX MOS IN EXTENDED. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ MTF ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 730 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2005 .AVIATION... LOW CLOUDS (AND POSSIBLY FOG ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF ADVANCING STRATUS) WILL BE THE CONCERN(S) OF THE FORECAST. 11U-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS PULLING WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CWA AT A NICE CLIP AND EXPECT IT INTO THE DTW/DET AREAS BY 02Z. WILL BRING IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND TREND THEM TOWARD IFR OVERNIGHT (WITH AT LEAST MVFR PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY). FOR FNT...THIS PROCESS WILL BE DELAYED BY A FEW HOURS...AND EXPECT JUST A TOUCH MORE FOG TO DEVELOP BEFORE OVERCAST STRATUS DECK BECOMES PREVALENT. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR MBS...WHERE AN EXTRA HOUR OR TWO DELAY WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER FOG CHANGE BEFORE STRATUS BECOMES THE DOMINANT PLAYER. THE ONLY CAVIOT WILL BE THE PERSISTENT BAND OF LAKE STRATUS...WHICH MAY BRING IN THE OCCASIONAL BKN025 CEILING THIS EVENING FOR MBS. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIAL ARE THEMES FOR THIS UPCOMING FORECAST. THE PAST 24 HOURS...UPPER PATTERN HAS BECOME QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH DIGGING TROF ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE PESKY UPPER LOW MIGRATING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PLENTY OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MID WEST. CLOSER EXAMINATION INTO THE CWA SHOWS OUR LAKE STRATUS QUICKLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TRI CITIES WITH PLENTY MORE STRATUS SEEN DOWNSTREAM INTO OH/NY/PA. NUMERICALLY SPEAKING...MODELS ARE DOING A FAIR JOB WITH PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT BUT NOT SO GOOD WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR WEST THIS STRATUS WILL GET INTO THE CWA. LATEST 18Z RUC SHOWS 925-950MB RH FIELDS QUICKLY INCREASING FROM THE EAST AND IMPACTING REGIONS FROM KPHN-KTTF TOWARD 04-06Z THEN BY SUNRISE TOWARD THE TRI CITIES. THIS POSES AN INTERESTING FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE TRI CITIES VICINITIES OVERNIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING...WITH SUNSET OUR WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AS RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. SFC DEWPOINTS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN A LITTLE INCREASE WHICH LEADS US TO GROUND FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. RUC13/NAM12 SFC CPD/S SHOW A RAPID DECREASE AFTER 06Z AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE WILL ADD IN PATCHY FOG. THEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW STRATUS QUICKLY ADVANCING WEST AND INFILTRATING THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH MECHANICAL MIXING FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP... HARD TO IGNORE THE SPOTTY QPF SIGNALS IN THE WRF/GFS/NAM/RUC13. SO WE WILL LOWER THE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MOCLOUDY FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MORE ON THE COOL SIDE, CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS, AS THE MAV SEEMS TOO HIGH. && .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES....WHILE EJECTED 500 MB LOWER MS VALLEY LOW/TROUGH REACHES SOUTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY RETREATS EAST TUESDAY. ESPECIALLY GFS SHOWS SLIGHT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ABOVE 850 MB TO WORK WITH...MAINLY EAST...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN DRIER TREND. 925 MB MOISTURE VERY SOUPY THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. 850 TO 700 MB THETA RIDGE NUDGING FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST EARLY PART OF WEEK. LITTLE TO NO 850 TO 700 MB OMEGA LIFT EARLY PART OF WEEK...WHILE 850 TO 700 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SLIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS EVEN SHOWS WEAK 850 TO 700 MB DEFORMATION IN EAST/SOUTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH NAM SIMILAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...WEAK MODEL SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE SEEN...MAINLY EAST...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM EARLIER FORECAST OF RETAINING CHANCE POPS EASTERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LATER PERIODS... MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH VICINITY OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKES REGION CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHEAST AND ALLOWING SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO SET UP OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY...THEN BROAD TROUGHINESS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND TRANSLATES TO THE EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED THAN OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGING SUBSEQUENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND...THIS SLOWER/WEAKER IDEA ALSO SUPPORTED BY 00Z ECMWF. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL NORTH OF GREAT LAKES WITH CONSENSUS TOWARD BROAD INVERTED TROUGH OVER FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY REPLACED BY RIDGING FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE SUNDAY...ACCORDING TO GFS/DGEX...WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASED MOISTURE/QPF INDICATIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY ESPECIALLY LATE. POSITIVE THETA E ADVECTION FROM 925 MB TO 700 MB ON THE INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH MODEST 300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST NEXT WEEK GIVEN SUPPORT BY BETTER CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS THAN WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. THUS...WILL KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOLDING OFF NEXT MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY IN LIGHT OF ABOVE DISCUSSION. WITH NO STRONG THERMAL ADVECTIONS EXPECTED...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IS ANTICIPATED EITHER...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM....DWD AVIATION.....DG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 355 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2005 .DISCUSSION... WITH MID/UPR LVL RDGING IN CONTROL...MAIN FCST CONCERNS INTO MIDWEEK ARE CLOUDS/TEMPS. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH MID/UPR LVL RDG ATOP A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LWR MS VALLEY DOWNSTREAM FROM A TROF OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...A RDG EXTENDED FROM NRN QUEBEC INTO THE WRN GRT LAKES LEAVING SUNNY SKIES AND A VERY WEAK GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WEAK ENE FLOW OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND COOL AIR (900 MB TEMP NEAR 4C PER TAMDAR SNDGS) ABOVE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE (WATER TEMP 59F AT 45002 BUOY) HAS SUSTAINED SOME CLOUDS INTO FAR S UPR MI VCNTY KMNM. SOME PATCHY SC ALSO NOTED OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR BUT WERE NOT MOVING ONSHORE. TONIGHT...SINCE THE GFS 1000-850 MB MOISTURE PROFILE SEEMS MORE REALISTIC (PER TAMDAR SNDGS) THAN THE NAM ONLY PATCHY SC EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING OVER SRN UPR MI. SIMILARLY...BUILDUP OF LAKE CLOUDS 925 MB MOISTURE HINTED AT BY NAM SEEMS OVERDONE. SO...GOING FCST OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS ON TRACK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AT OR JUST BLO GUIDANCE WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 30F INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE LAKES. MON...EVEN THOUGH THE NAM STILL SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LVL MOISTENING...DEVELOPING 10-15 KT NNE BNDRY LYR WIND...AS HIGH BUILD N OF THE LAKE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PICK UP LAKE MOISTURE AND PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPE ST/SC OVER N CNTRL UPR MI EARLY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH 900 MB TEMPS FCST NEAR 8C SUPPORT TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THE RDG REMAINING TO THE NORTH...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER GRADIENT E FLOW REMAINS BUT SHOULD STILL DECOUPLE ENOUGH INLAND TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S WHILE READINGS REMAIN IN THE 40S ALONG LAKES WHERE E WIND IS ONSHORE. AGAIN THE NAM DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN 925-900 MOISTURE FOR N CNTRL AND THE KEWEENAW AND SR UPR MI FAVORED BY ERLY AND/OR UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL HEDGE TOWARD THIS SCENARIO IN KEEPING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS GOING FOR THESE AREAS. ALTHOUGH MIXING SHOULD HELP THIN OUT THE CLOUDS A BIT...NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS SUGGEST 925-850 RH WILL INCREASE AS RDG SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND MOISTURE RETURNS AND SOME MOISTURE EDGES BACK IN FROM THE EAST. WED-SUN...THE 00Z/09 AND 06Z/09 GFS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MOVING A CUTOFF LOW FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SRN LAKES FROM LATE WED INTO EARLY FRI WHILE THE 00Z/09 UKMET/ECMWF/CMC LIFT THE TROF NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPR GRT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED TOWARD THE OTHER GLBL MDLS. WHILE THE 00Z/06Z GFS SCENARIO WITH A BLOCKING RDG OVR ONTARIO AND ERLY FLOW WOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY...CONSENSUS OF OTHER GLBL MDLS STILL WARRANTS KEEPING SMALL PCPN CHANCES GOING. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK MID LVL TROF AND MARGINAL MOISTURE AVBL...ANY PCPN WOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. MDLS ALSO HINT AT POTENTIAL OF WEAK SHRTWVS AFFECTING THE AREA FRI WITH ADDITIONAL LGT PCPN AS THE MEAN TROF MOVES INTO THE GRT LAKES. SINCE SUPPORT FOR -SHRA WITH THESE FEATURES WOULD BE MARGINAL...NO ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES WERE ADDED AT THIS POINT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE GFS WAS FASTER/DEEPER THAN THE ECMWF/CMC OR REFORECAST ENS MEAN WITH THE NEXT MID LVL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. THE UKMET WAS THE OUTLIER WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED WRN NOAM RDG AND TROF INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF...LOW END PCPN CHANCES WERE INCLUDED BY SUN...PER GFS AND 00Z ENS MEAN(FAVORED BY HPC). && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 328 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2005 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIAL ARE THEMES FOR THIS UPCOMING FORECAST. THE PAST 24 HOURS...UPPER PATTERN HAS BECOME QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH DIGGING TROF ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE PESKY UPPER LOW MIGRATING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PLENTY OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MID WEST. CLOSER EXAMINATION INTO THE CWA SHOWS OUR LAKE STRATUS QUICKLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TRI CITIES WITH PLENTY MORE STRATUS SEEN DOWNSTREAM INTO OH/NY/PA. NUMERICALLY SPEAKING...MODELS ARE DOING A FAIR JOB WITH PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT BUT NOT SO GOOD WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR WEST THIS STRATUS WILL GET INTO THE CWA. LATEST 18Z RUC SHOWS 925-950MB RH FIELDS QUICKLY INCREASING FROM THE EAST AND IMPACTING REGIONS FROM KPHN-KTTF TOWARD 04-06Z THEN BY SUNRISE TOWARD THE TRI CITIES. THIS POSES AN INTERESTING FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE TRI CITIES VICINITIES OVERNIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING...WITH SUNSET OUR WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AS RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. SFC DEWPOINTS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN A LITTLE INCREASE WHICH LEADS US TO GROUND FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. RUC13/NAM12 SFC CPD/S SHOW A RAPID DECREASE AFTER 06Z AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE WILL ADD IN PATCHY FOG. THEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW STRATUS QUICKLY ADVANCING WEST AND INFILTRATING THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH MECHANICAL MIXING FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP... HARD TO IGNORE THE SPOTTY QPF SIGNALS IN THE WRF/GFS/NAM/RUC13. SO WE WILL LOWER THE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MOCLOUDY FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MORE ON THE COOL SIDE, CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS, AS THE MAV SEEMS TOO HIGH. && .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES....WHILE EJECTED 500 MB LOWER MS VALLEY LOW/TROUGH REACHES SOUTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY RETREATS EAST TUESDAY. ESPECIALLY GFS SHOWS SLIGHT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ABOVE 850 MB TO WORK WITH...MAINLY EAST...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN DRIER TREND. 925 MB MOISTURE VERY SOUPY THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. 850 TO 700 MB THETA RIDGE NUDGING FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST EARLY PART OF WEEK. LITTLE TO NO 850 TO 700 MB OMEGA LIFT EARLY PART OF WEEK...WHILE 850 TO 700 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SLIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS EVEN SHOWS WEAK 850 TO 700 MB DEFORMATION IN EAST/SOUTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH NAM SIMILAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...WEAK MODEL SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE SEEN...MAINLY EAST...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM EARLIER FORECAST OF RETAINING CHANCE POPS EASTERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LATER PERIODS... MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH VICINITY OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKES REGION CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHEAST AND ALLOWING SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO SET UP OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY...THEN BROAD TROUGHINESS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND TRANSLATES TO THE EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED THAN OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGING SUBSEQUENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND...THIS SLOWER/WEAKER IDEA ALSO SUPPORTED BY 00Z ECMWF. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL NORTH OF GREAT LAKES WITH CONSENSUS TOWARD BROAD INVERTED TROUGH OVER FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY REPLACED BY RIDGING FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE SUNDAY...ACCORDING TO GFS/DGEX...WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASED MOISTURE/QPF INDICATIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY ESPECIALLY LATE. POSITIVE THETA E ADVECTION FROM 925 MB TO 700 MB ON THE INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH MODEST 300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST NEXT WEEK GIVEN SUPPORT BY BETTER CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS THAN WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. THUS...WILL KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOLDING OFF NEXT MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY IN LIGHT OF ABOVE DISCUSSION. WITH NO STRONG THERMAL ADVECTIONS EXPECTED...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IS ANTICIPATED EITHER...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 135 PM EDT SUN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS LAKE STRATUS IMPACTING THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB WITH QUICK EROSION OCCURRING ON THE EDGES AS SUNSHINE CONTINUES TO WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANOTHER MORE EXTENSIVE LAYER OF STRATUS EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WELL DOWNSTREAM INTO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW WAS TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THIS STRATUS LAYER WESTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS AND EXPERIMENTAL RUC QUICKLY SATURATE DETROIT TOWARD 09Z AND NEAR SUNRISE TOWARD MBS. THIS LEAVES US WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG INTO FNT AND MBS. CPD/S FROM THE NAM12 AND GFS SHOW NEAR SURFACE VALUES QUICKLY DROP TO BELOW 10MBS. IN ADDITION WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THIS WILL LIKELY APPROACH OVERNIGHT LOWS...DECIDED TO ADD IN 3-5SM BR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW FOR FNT AND MBS. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM....DWD AVIATION...BGM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 135 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2005 .AVIATION... LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS LAKE STRATUS IMPACTING THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB WITH QUICK EROSION OCCURRING ON THE EDGES AS SUNSHINE CONTINUES TO WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANOTHER MORE EXTENSIVE LAYER OF STRATUS EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WELL DOWNSTREAM INTO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW WAS TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THIS STRATUS LAYER WESTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS AND EXPERIMENTAL RUC QUICKLY SATURATE DETROIT TOWARD 09Z AND NEAR SUNRISE TOWARD MBS. THIS LEAVES US WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG INTO FNT AND MBS. CPD/S FROM THE NAM12 AND GFS SHOW NEAR SURFACE VALUES QUICKLY DROP TO BELOW 10MBS. IN ADDITION WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THIS WILL LIKELY APPROACH OVERNIGHT LOWS...DECIDED TO ADD IN 3-5SM BR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW FOR FNT AND MBS. BGM && .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. WITHIN THIS LARGE RIDGE ARE A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL LOWS... CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW. ONE IS CENTERED NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION... WHILE THE OTHER IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN OHIO. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED THE CIRCULATION OVER OHIO A LITTLE TOO WEAK. THE GFS SOLUTION WAS CLOSEST TO REALITY. MEANWHILE...THE NAM SOLUTION WAS ALSO A BIT TOO STRONG WITH THE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AGAIN HAD A BETTER SOLUTION. WILL THUS LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/WRFXX SOLUTION WHICH MAINTAIN A STRONGER CIRCULATION AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND WEST TOWARD SE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR ARKLATEX LIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS FAR AS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS CONCERNED... THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME... A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY... MAINTAINING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE SHOWN MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT STRATUS LOCATED FROM THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB NORTH INTO NE LOWER MI. IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION IS PROVIDING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO SE MICHIGAN. THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 900MB...WITH EXTREMELY DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THIS INVERSION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME ADDITIONAL STRATUS DEVELOPS UNDER THIS INVERSION BEFORE SUNRISE. BASED ON THE DTX SOUNDING... THE STRATUS SHOULD BE QUITE THIN AND MIX OUT EASILY WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. A LITTLE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM DETROIT SOUTH MAY HOWEVER RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG INVERSION AND SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS... THINK GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS OF AROUND 60 LOOK REASONABLE EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE. AGAIN TONIGHT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST MAY ALSO ALLOW MORE STRATUS TO DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. && .LONG TERM... NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY'S THINKING. THE ONLY MINOR SURPRISE IS THE SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OHIO...WHICH HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF A LITTLE BETTER THEN EXPECTED. THIS RESULTED IN A LITTLE BETTER WESTWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AS PW VALUES OF 1 INCH REACHED NORTHWEST OHIO. 00Z DTX SOUNDING CHECKED IN WITH A 0.68 PW VALUE. LARGE CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE EASTERN OHIO CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO REACH LAKE HURON BY MONDAY...IN A SHEARED OUT FASHION. GFS INDICATING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA (1000 TO 500 MB RH AROUND 90 PERCENT) DURING MONDAY. WRFXX AND NAM ARE A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE...BUT CERTAINLY WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS NOTED ABOVE...WITH MOISTURE GRADIENT A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THIS MORNING...MAY NEED TO ADD CHANCE POPS TO WESTERN COUNTIES AS WELL. IT LOOKS TO BE A REAL CLOSE CALL. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CIRCULATION TO TRACK THROUGH EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY. NAM INDICATING A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HELPED OUT BY NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. WITH WRFXX ALSO INDICATING THIS...HAVE BUMPED UP SKY GRIDS A LITTLE MORE FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...LOWERED MAXES. HOWEVER...NOT READY TO LOWER THEM AS LOW AS NAM MOS GUIDANCE (MID 50S)...WHICH IS 10+ DEGREES LOWER THEN GFS MOS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...EVEN 00Z GFS RUN IS INDICATING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL ON TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH 925 MB RH FORECASTED TO BE GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT. SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. STILL DIFFICULT TO ACCESS AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND WITH THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. HOWEVER...NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH GFS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY WOBBLING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY (MAY EVEN BE AN OPEN WAVE BY THAT TIME). MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE GENERAL CIRCULATION WILL MAKE TIMING OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS VERY DIFFICULT. CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS THE BEST WE CAN DO AT THIS POINT. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 150 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2005 .DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS HAS THE UPPER LOW/VORT LOBE SPINNING NORTH OF THE CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH HAS BROUGHT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. ON THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S. FOR TONIGHT SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL BRING IN CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST THE CLOSED LOW WILL HELP THE BRING SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS...WHICH WILL DRIFT NORTH OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SOME FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMP WISE WENT CLOSE TO 12Z ADJUSTED MAV GUIDANCE. /17/ LONG TERM...NOT MUCH TO GET EXCITED ABOUT WX WISE OVER THE NEXT WEEK...BUT IF YOU LIKE OVERNIGHT LOWS 55-60 AND HIGHS 78-85 YOUR IN LUCK! SFC RIDGE CENTER WILL GET ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BE IN A PERSISTENT...DRY NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE SPINNING AND SLOWLY LIFTING NE-WARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE REGION TO BE UNDER SW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DECENT STREAM OF CIRRUS INTO WED NIGHT. CIRRUS IS ALWAYS HARD TO DESCRIBE...BUT THIS ROUND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ON THE THICK SIDE AND DUE TO THIS...WILL WORD PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW. THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON TEMPS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND LOOKS TO BE OUR SAVING GRACE FOR KEEPING TEMPS BELOW 85 DEGREES. IF THE CIRRUS IS REALLY THIN...A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA MAY SEE UPPER 80S TUE-THU. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...NOT IMPRESSED WITH ANYTHING. NO MOISTURE AROUND AND THE DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE THROUGH WILL BE WEAK. THE BEST DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO EFFECT THE AREA ON FRI. SOME "OK" ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT...BUT THIS WILL BE LOCATED AT OR ABOVE THE 305K SFC AND WILL HAVE TO WRK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. DUE TO THIS...I HAVE GONE WITH THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TREND AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO AROUND 10%. FOR THE WEEKEND...I HAVE MADE SOME TEMPS ADJUSTMENTS. I WILL BE FOLLOWING THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PATTERN. THIS SOLUTION HAS A LOT OF AGREEMENT WITH OTHER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND THE THINKING OF THE LONG RANGE GURU'S. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A GOOD RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AND EASTERN TROUGH. THIS ALSO SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO VALUES FOR TEMPS...WITH STANDARD DEVIATIONS RUNNING ~1.5 BELOW CLIMO. I HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE COOLER READINGS OCCURRING SUN/MON...THIS I HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. FOR HIGH TEMPS...I HAVE BASICALLY USED GUIDANCE AS SUNNY SKIES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO NEAR CLIMO MAX TEMPS. /CME/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POP... JACKSON 51 81 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 MERIDIAN 49 82 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM: 17 LONG TERM: CME ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 935 AM CDT SUN OCT 9 2005 .DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS HAS THE UPPER LOW/VORT LOBE SPINNING NEAR GREENVILLE. LOCAL RADARS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS AND NAM ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS INDICATE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND GREATEST NET ADIABATIC ISENTROPIC OMEGA CENTERS HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF OUR CWA. ALSO...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AS WELL. SO WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE REMOVED POPS AND MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO AFTERNOON HIGHS USING ADJUSTED 06Z MAV. WITH DRYER AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BELIEVE THAT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPDATED GRIDS SENT OUT. /17/ && .AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND 1500FT MOVING OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS WILL RESULT IN CEILINGS BELOW 3000FT AT MEI UNTIL ABOUT NOON. OTHERWISE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 8 TO 10K WAS MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER FEATURE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 08Z. AFTER 08Z MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. /17/ && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM: 17 ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 750 PM PDT SUN OCT 9 2005 .SYNOPSIS...NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COOL CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. && .UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A 16 MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ELY AND NEEDLES AT 02Z. SURFACE WINDS WERE ALSO RESPONDING WITH SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTIES. THE 18Z ETA AND LATEST RUC BOTH SHOW THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING A LITTLE OVERNIGHT THEN RELAXING AFTER 18Z MONDAY. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. && .PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM PDT...UPPER LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA CURRENTLY CONTINUING TO KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA. THIS IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENTS WHICH IN TURN IS KEEPING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH ALONG BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PUSHING INTO LINCOLN COUNTY ATTM AND MAY ENHANCE/KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING A LITTLE LONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO ALLOW A LITTLE MORE COOLING TO DROP OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY... SO WILL NOT SEE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN DAYTIME HIGHS FROM TODAY. BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...TROUGH/LOW TO SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO REBOUND ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE LONG TERM. && .LONG TERM...VIRTUALLY PERFECT MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND DGEX OUT TO 192 HOURS GIVING THE EXTENDED FORECAST A VERY HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. WARMUP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A FAIRLY STABLE 4 TO 5 HEMISPHERIC WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WHILE AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AGREEMENT IS SO STRONG THAT AT 192 HOURS BOTH MODELS HAVE A 989 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN NEVADA. ONLY QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE BLOCK WILL PERSIST AND JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE PUTS US BACK UP TO 90 DEGREES AND WITH THE HIGH CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF THE OVERALL PATTERN ALONG WITH THE STABLE NATURE OF THE WAVES WENT WITH VALUES AROUND IT. AVERAGE HIGH NEXT WEEKEND IS 81 WHICH WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO 10 ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD STAY WELL OVER 15 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE LATEST KLAS TAF FOR DETAILS. && .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY EXTENDED UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR ZONE 21. .AZ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY EXTENDED UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR ZONES 2/36. .CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY EXTENDED UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR ZONE 29. && $$ ADAIR/JENSEN/BELL nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1229 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2005 CORRECTED...AS THE FLOOD WARNINGS IN THE LOWER CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION HAVE BEEN DROPPED. .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... HISTORIC RAINFALL EVENT ENDED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ALY FORECAST AREA. A PNS (PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT) WAS ISSUED AT 1125 AM WITH THE LATEST UNOFFICIAL 24 HOUR TOTALS. SOME 10"+ AMOUNTS IN THE BERKSHIRES...SRN VT...AND CATSKILL REGION. UPDATE IS TO CUT THE POPS FROM ALY SOUTH AND EAST THIS PM. VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEPICTED ON THE ALY RADAR IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...EXCEPT NORTH AND WEST OF ALY WHERE A LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN. THE LATEST 40 KM RUC HAS THE 500 MB UPPER LOW PARKED OVER ERN LAKE ERIE. THE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED A BIT TOO WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN HERE AND THERE AND BASES HAVE RISEN TO 3000 TO 3500 FT AGL FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH. WE WILL STILL PHRASE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST PLACES. TEMPS WERE BUMPED DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY WITH CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH AND BRISK N/NE WINDS. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS OVER THE THE CAPITAL REGION WITH CURRENT HIGHS ALREADY REACHED. ENX Z-R RELATIONSHIP CHANGED FROM TROPICAL COEFFICIENTS TO THE COOL SEASON STRATIFORM VALUES OF 130/2.0. THE STP PRODUCT SHOWED THAT THE TROPICAL Z-R RELATIONSHIP PERFORMED WELL WITH THIS EVENT. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MAIN STEM RIVER FLW'S UP FOR RENSSELAER COUNTY...THE BERKSHIRES...SRN VT AND LITCHFIELD CTY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 320 AM... .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING FLOODING THOUGH WORST IS PASSING. LIMITED CHANGES TO PREVIOUS GRIDS. LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN WAS MOVING INTO CONNECTICUT. TEMPERATURES IN WARM SECTOR STILL ABOVE 70 EASTERN CT. FINAL WAVE OF +RA WAS MOVING THROUGH AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND E. HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS. POPS TAPERED TO CHANCE BY LATE MORNING. PNSALY ISSUED ABOUT 100 AM. WILL ISSUE ANOTHER BY 5 OR 6 AM. QUITE A FEW 7-10 INCH TOTALS. HEAVY RAIN FELL AFTER AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD AND AS A RESULT IT TOOK A WHILE FOR FLOODING TO START. SERIOUS FLOODING HAS OCCURRED WITH EVACUATIONS REPORTED IN A NUMBER OF AREAS. SEE LATEST WARNINGS. FFA WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM. WON'T CARRY FFA FLAG IN NEW ZONES SINCE WITH NO PROBLEMS OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. WILL ISSUE STATEMENT ON STATUS BY 6 AM. FFW'S CONTINUE IN A NUMBER OF ZONES. MOST WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED SOON. ON MONDAY NAM BACKS MOISTURE IN OFF THE ATLANTIC AS INVERTED TROUGH LIES ALONG EAST COAST. NAM RAINFALL EXCEEDS 1.5 IN SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BUT IN EAST PORTION OF ALY CWA AMOUNTS FORECAST TO RELATIVELY LIGHT. TROUGH RETREATS TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. VERY LITTLE PRECIP TUESDAY BUT UPPER LOW STILL HAS TO GO BY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIP INCREASES AS UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. GFS IS MUCH MORE OMINOUS. 1.5+ INCHES BY 12Z WED EXTREME E PORTION OF CWA WITH 3+ IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS BRINGS A THIRD SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN IN OUR DIRECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURE WHETHER GFS CAN BE TRUSTED AS IT CONTINUES DEVELOP A DEEP LOW IN THE ATLANTIC. AT THIS POINT WILL BE GENERAL. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WILL MAKE ALMOST NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF WEEK. HOWEVER SOME 12Z SAT LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN SUGGESTED BY GFS WITH IMPROVING WEATHER BY END OF THE WEEK. 00Z RUNS NOT AS OPTIMISTIC. && .AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE BERKSHIRES...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...AND VISIBLITY WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE POINT WHERE THERE WILL BE LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHTER BY MID MORNING AND VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BECOME UNRESTRICTED. THE CEILING WILL RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND NOON. HOWEVER...THIS EVENING...MVFR CEILINGS WILL FORM. THE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. IT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE CANADA WILL DRIFT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL BLOW AT 5 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR THROUGH MONDAY. WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT HAS SOAKED THE GROUND TO THE POINT WHERE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH MONDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 85 PERCENT. AFTER RECOVERING TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...IT WILL FALL OFF TO 75 TO 85 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES REPORTED FROM SOUTHERN CATSKILLS ACROSS MID HUDSON VALLEY TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXTENDED DRY PERIOD LESSENED IMPACT BUT SERIOUS FLOODING HAS STILL OCCURRED. WALLOOMSAC REPORTED MAJOR FLOODING AND PEAKED A LITTLE OVER A HALF FOOT BELOW FLOOD OF RECORD. FLOODING WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS LOW AS TO TIMING AND OCCURRENCE SO WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AT THIS TIME. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...WASULA ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1211 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... HISTORIC RAINFALL EVENT ENDED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ALY FORECAST AREA. A PNS (PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT) WAS ISSUED AT 1125 AM WITH THE LATEST UNOFFICIAL 24 HOUR TOTALS. SOME 10"+ AMOUNTS IN THE BERKSHIRES...SRN VT...AND CATSKILL REGION. UPDATE IS TO CUT THE POPS FROM ALY SOUTH AND EAST THIS PM. VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEPICTED ON THE ALY RADAR IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...EXCEPT NORTH AND WEST OF ALY WHERE A LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN. THE LATEST 40 KM RUC HAS THE 500 MB UPPER LOW PARKED OVER ERN LAKE ERIE. THE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED A BIT TOO WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN HERE AND THERE AND BASES HAVE RISEN TO 3000 TO 3500 FT AGL FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH. WE WILL STILL PHRASE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST PLACES. TEMPS WERE BUMPED DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY WITH CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH AND BRISK N/NE WINDS. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS OVER THE THE CAPITAL REGION WITH CURRENT HIGHS ALREADY REACHED. ENX Z-R RELATIONSHIP CHANGED FROM TROPICAL COEFFICIENTS TO THE COOL SEASON STRATIFORM VALUES OF 130/2.0. THE STP PRODUCT SHOWED THAT THE TROPICAL Z-R RELATIONSHIP PERFORMED WELL WITH THIS EVENT. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MAIN STEM RIVER FLW'S UP FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT AND LITCHFIELD CTY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 320 AM... .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING FLOODING THOUGH WORST IS PASSING. LIMITED CHANGES TO PREVIOUS GRIDS. LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN WAS MOVING INTO CONNECTICUT. TEMPERATURES IN WARM SECTOR STILL ABOVE 70 EASTERN CT. FINAL WAVE OF +RA WAS MOVING THROUGH AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND E. HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS. POPS TAPERED TO CHANCE BY LATE MORNING. PNSALY ISSUED ABOUT 100 AM. WILL ISSUE ANOTHER BY 5 OR 6 AM. QUITE A FEW 7-10 INCH TOTALS. HEAVY RAIN FELL AFTER AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD AND AS A RESULT IT TOOK A WHILE FOR FLOODING TO START. SERIOUS FLOODING HAS OCCURRED WITH EVACUATIONS REPORTED IN A NUMBER OF AREAS. SEE LATEST WARNINGS. FFA WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM. WON'T CARRY FFA FLAG IN NEW ZONES SINCE WITH NO PROBLEMS OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. WILL ISSUE STATEMENT ON STATUS BY 6 AM. FFW'S CONTINUE IN A NUMBER OF ZONES. MOST WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED SOON. ON MONDAY NAM BACKS MOISTURE IN OFF THE ATLANTIC AS INVERTED TROUGH LIES ALONG EAST COAST. NAM RAINFALL EXCEEDS 1.5 IN SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BUT IN EAST PORTION OF ALY CWA AMOUNTS FORECAST TO RELATIVELY LIGHT. TROUGH RETREATS TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. VERY LITTLE PRECIP TUESDAY BUT UPPER LOW STILL HAS TO GO BY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIP INCREASES AS UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. GFS IS MUCH MORE OMINOUS. 1.5+ INCHES BY 12Z WED EXTREME E PORTION OF CWA WITH 3+ IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS BRINGS A THIRD SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN IN OUR DIRECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURE WHETHER GFS CAN BE TRUSTED AS IT CONTINUES DEVELOP A DEEP LOW IN THE ATLANTIC. AT THIS POINT WILL BE GENERAL. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WILL MAKE ALMOST NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF WEEK. HOWEVER SOME 12Z SAT LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN SUGGESTED BY GFS WITH IMPROVING WEATHER BY END OF THE WEEK. 00Z RUNS NOT AS OPTIMISTIC. && .AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE BERKSHIRES...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...AND VISIBLITY WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE POINT WHERE THERE WILL BE LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHTER BY MID MORNING AND VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BECOME UNRESTRICTED. THE CEILING WILL RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND NOON. HOWEVER...THIS EVENING...MVFR CEILINGS WILL FORM. THE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. IT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE CANADA WILL DRIFT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL BLOW AT 5 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR THROUGH MONDAY. WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT HAS SOAKED THE GROUND TO THE POINT WHERE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH MONDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 85 PERCENT. AFTER RECOVERING TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...IT WILL FALL OFF TO 75 TO 85 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES REPORTED FROM SOUTHERN CATSKILLS ACROSS MID HUDSON VALLEY TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXTENDED DRY PERIOD LESSENED IMPACT BUT SERIOUS FLOODING HAS STILL OCCURRED. WALLOOMSAC REPORTED MAJOR FLOODING AND PEAKED A LITTLE OVER A HALF FOOT BELOW FLOOD OF RECORD. FLOODING WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS LOW AS TO TIMING AND OCCURRENCE SO WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AT THIS TIME. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...WASULA ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 930 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2005 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/...WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PUBLIC ZONES. AFTER FOG LIFTS THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. MSAS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY AS GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK. COULD SEE A BIT OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POP AS DIFFLUENCE FROM UPPER LOW TO THE WEST MOVES THIS GENERAL DIRECTION. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS PW NEAR 1.5 INCHES WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR EVIDENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THE DENSE OVERCAST SCOUR OUT TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NW TIER WHERE WEDGE IS TRYING TO BUILD. && .MARINE...WILL UPDATE THE WIND FIELD AS WEAK SFC LOW TO THE EAST OF FL COAST HAS BROUGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO ALL THE WATERS. SC WATERS MAY SEE SOME ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALBEIT LIGHT...BUT RUC SHOWS THE GA WATERS TO KEEP THE N FLOW AS SFC LOW OFF THE N FL COAST MOVES LITTLE. SABSOON STILL IS SHOWING SOME 5-6 FOOTERS OVER THE GA OFFSHORE WATERS SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS AT AMZ374. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AMZ374. && $$ PY sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 939 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2005 .UPDATE... WELL-DEFINED BACK EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST RUC HANDLES THIS WELL VIA THE 850-500MB RH FIELD...SHOWING PRONOUNCED DRY-SLOT WORKING INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CORE OF UPPER LOW MOVING E-SE INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. A FEW MORE HRS OF DIGGING IS EXPECTED WITH 100KT JET STREAK STILL LOCATED ON WEST SIDE. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR RATON NM WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NEAR TUCUMCARI NM BY DAYBREAK. FCST QUESTIONS INCLUDE HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THERE WILL BE NEAR THE COLD CORE AS IT MOVES ACROSS NM AND HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST WILL THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BE...THUS WHERE TO KEEP HIGHER POPS. BELIEVE THAT WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP AND HEAD TOWARD THE SOUTH PLAINS BY MORNING AS THE UPR LOW MOVES CLOSER. HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND HAVE LOWERED POPS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS THRU THE MORNING. THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD ALLOW THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE...AND WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH...HAVE RETAINED HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA. MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TONITE...WITH RAINFALL RATES SLOWLY DECREASING TOWARD MORNING. WITH THE PROGGED TRACK OF THE UPR LOW AND THE COLD FRONT...IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE 60S TOMORROW. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 05/33 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1116 AM CDT SUN OCT 9 2005 .UPDATE... BAND OF LAKE MI MOISTURE/CLOUDS HAS PARKED ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL/ EASTERN THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. VIS IMAGERY SHOWING CU/STRATO-CU DEVELOPING EAST/WEST OF THIS BAND...VERY SIMILAR TO SAT...THUS EXPECTING SIMILAR EVOLUTION TO SKY/CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS OCCURRED SAT. THE DEVELOPING CU/STRATO-CU WILL FLATTEN OUT AND DISSIPATE WITH INCREASED MIXING DEPTH THRU THE AFTERNOON... WHILE THE ORIGINAL BKN/OVC BAND OF STRATUS/STRATO-CU WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE EDGES WITH WARMING/MIXING. THIS LEAVES AN AREA FROM AROUND KMDZ TO KCMY/KLSE TO KOVS/KPDC/KOLZ IN THE CLOUDS MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH LESS/LIMITED SUNSHINE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD DECK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN IN THE 50S. HAVE UPDATED TEMP/ SKY FORECAST GRIDS AND ZONE FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDS/ COOLER HIGHS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. && RRS .PREV DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY SHORT TERM CONCERNS AGAIN LIE IN VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT LOW CLOUD /STRATUS/ FIELDS EMANATING FROM GREAT LAKES AND FEEDING INTO CWA ON EASTERLY FLOW...AND THEIR AFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CLOSED UPPER LOW WOBBLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND INTO AND ACROSS AREA WED AND THURS. CURRENT STRATUS DECK ACROSS SWRN/SCNTL WI BEING CAPTURED NICELY BY 06Z RUC/NAM 925MB RH FIELDS. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS CLOUD DECK WILL BRING IT ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z...WITH THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP AS THE MORNING WEARS INTO THE AFTERNOON. DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SWRN WI...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH HOLES FOR PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN THE SOUTH...AND GOING MAX TEMP GRID CAPTURES THIS THINKING. A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH INCREMENTAL WARMING AT H9...BUT CLOUDS WILL TEMPER THAT A LITTLE. COULD SEE FOG AGAIN IN THE RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT AS WE ARE SEEING NOW...WITH RIDGE AXIS REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO CWA AND IN COMMAND. WEAK FLOW WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL AGAIN RAISE CONCERN FOR ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATUS OFF THE LAKES...AND NAM DOES INDEED HINT AT THIS BY 12Z MON. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE CLOUDS /AND THE FOG MENTION/ AND LET THE DAY SHIFT ASSESS THE PROSPECTS OF THE NEXT BATCH OF STRATUS. AS MONDAY MOVES INTO TUESDAY...ENERGY IN THE MOUNTAIN WEST WILL SINK INTO THE FOUR CORNERS...AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER CIRCULATION...WHILE EJECTING A SLOW MOVING UPPER CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. OUR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY VERY DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH SREF/GFS SHOWING H85 DEWPOINT MINIMUM REMAINING SQUARELY OVER CWA THROUGH TUES. BARRING ANY MORE ILL DEFINED AND HARD TO PREDICT BATCHES OF STRATUS MOVING OFF THE LAKES...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUING A SLOW WARMING TREND. WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...MUCH OF DATABASE LEFT ALONE. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BY TUESDAY EVENING...MUCH PREFERRED GFS AND ITS SIMILAR ECMWF EJECT THE WAVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING IT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH NO STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX INTO IT. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK Q/G FORCING AND KINEMATIC LIFT ON THE NRN CUSP OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL COMBINE WITH PW'S INCREASING TO ~ 1 INCH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH LOW SLOWLY MOVING OVER AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAINS WILL FALL ON PORTIONS OF THE AREA. VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYERS THOUGH WILL MAKE COVERAGE UNCERTAIN...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S. SYSTEM SHOULD EJECT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS STRONG SYSTEM PLOWS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS...AND DRIVES A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. /SAT/. GOING DATABASE HAS DRY WEATHER FOR FRI/SAT WHICH LOOKS FINE...BUT SHRA CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BY LATER SHIFTS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ BINAU wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 310 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 .DISCUSSION... 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE ERN RDG/WRN TROF OVER THE CONUS/SRN CAN TO THE S OF ZONAL JET STREAM FARTHER N ACRS CAN. SPRAWLING SFC HI PRES UNDER UPR RDG CENTERED OVER QUEBEC...BUT SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDS WSW INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. LOCAL 00Z RAOBS/TAMDAR SDNGS SHOW A VERY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WITH KINX AS LO AS -31 AT APX. STRG SUBSIDENCE INVRN APRNT AT H875-9 ON THESE SDNGS...AND SKIES CLR OVER THE UPR GRT LKS WITH DRY SUB INVRN LYR. ONLY AT GRB WHERE LLVL ENE FLOW PASSES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF NRN LK MI (WATER TEMP AT 45002 BUOY IS 15C) DOES THE SUB INVRN LYR LOOK MOIST ENUF TO SUPPORT ANY LK CLD...AND THERE IS A PATCH OF SC ACRS SCNTRL WI. BUT THE INVRN BASE TEMP AT GRB HAS INCRSD FM 0C TO 4C IN THE LAST 24 HRS AS AIRMASS WRMG UNDER THE RDG...EXPLAINING WHY LK CLD COVG IS SO MUCH LESS COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NGTS. OTRW...AN AREA OF HI CLD IS PUSHING N THRU MN TO THE E OF MORE EXTENSIVE CLD COVER ACCOMPANYING WRN TROF...BUT ON TRACK TO REMAIN W OF THE FA AND VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXTENSIVE LO CLD APRNT TO THE E OF LK HURON WHERE RAOBS SHOW LLVL MSTR IS BACKING TO THE W. MAIN FCST CONCERNS INTO WED ARE TEMPS AND PSBL LO CLD DVLPMNT AS UPR RDG FCST TO REMAIN DOMINANT. FOCUS FOR WED SHIFTS TO PCPN CHCS AS WRN TROF LIFTS TO THE NE INTO DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR TDAY...MODELS SHOW FA REMAINING UNDER DOMINATION OF UPR RDG/DRY AIRMASS...BUT CENTER OF SFC HI PRES FCST TO SHIFT INTO NW QUEBEC UNDER INCRSG UPR CONFLUENCE BTWN TOP OF OF UPR RDG/ZONAL FLOW ACRS CNTRL CAN. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS CHG IN MSLP PATTERN IS THE SFC-H925 WIND FLOW SHIFTS FM AN E TO A MORE NNE DIRECTION BY 12Z. NAM FCST SDNGS STILL INDICATE LK CLD MIGHT DVLP TDAY OVER MAINLY THE NCNTRL ZNS WITH UPSLOPING NNE FLOW...BUT 00Z YPL/WZC SDNGS LOOK JUST TOO DRY FOR ANY SGNFT CLD COVER WITH INVRN LOWER (CLOSER TO H925) AND BASE TEMP EVEN WARMER THAN AT GRB (7C AT YPL). THINK NAM MOS FCST OF SCT CLD THIS MRNG AT SAW BEFORE DIURNAL HTG MIXES LCL ABV INVRN BASE THE WORST THAT COULD HAPPEN EVEN IN THE UPSLOPE AREA OF THE NCNTRL FM IWD-MQT GIVEN WARMTH/DRYNESS OF UPSTREAM AIRMASS. GFS FCST SDNGS ARE QUITE A BIT DRIER AND PROBABLY MORE ON TRACK. OTRW... THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN SUNNY WITH SLOWLY RISING HGTS KEEPING CI TO THE W AT BAY. MIXING TO INVRN BASE AT H875-9 YIELDS TMAX IN THE 60 TO 65 RANGE...SO LTL CHG NECESSARY TO GOING FCST. TNGT...HI CENTER IN ONTARIO DRIFTS NE TOWARD JAMES BAY...RESULTING IN SFC-H925 FLOW VEERING MORE E. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THIS FLOW ADVECTING HIER H925 MSTR/EXTENSIVE LO CLD NOW TO THE E OF LK HURON W INTO THE U.P. OVERNGT BLO SUBSIDENCE INVRN IN PLACE. SINCE THIS CLD MASS QUITE APRNT ON STLT IMAGERY AND EXPANDING SLOWLY TO THE W AND ARRIVAL OF MSTR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN FVRBL FOR LO CLD DVLPMNT... HAVE NO REASON TO NOT BELIEVE THE CLD WL EXPAND INTO AT LEAST THE ERN FA LATE TNGT ONCE THE LLVL WIND VEERS TO THE E. WL BUMP UP FCST LO TEMPS OVER THE E HALF WHERE THIS LO CLD IS EXPECTED TO INVADE LATE TNGT CLOSER TO VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE FCST. GFS/NAM INDICATE THIS HIER H925 RH WL EXPAND FARTHER W ON TUE IN LLVL ESE FLOW. ALTHOUGH SOLAR HTG MAY TRY TO MIX MSTR OUT ESPECIALLY AT THE EDGES OF HIER SFC-H925 RH...DECLINING SUN ANGLE AND FCST DCRS IN INVRN BASE TEMP WL LIMIT THIS PROCESS. WL CUT BACK ON FCST HI TEMPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE ECNTRL WHERE CLD COVER WL BE MORE EXTENSIVE. WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG ON TUE NGT...EXPECT LO CLD TO THICKEN AS ESE FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT LLVL MSTR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN. ADDED SOME PTCHY DZ/FOG AFTER MIDNGT OVER THE CNTRL ZNS WHERE SE H925 UPSLOPE FLOW WOULD BE MAXIMIZED. RAISED GOING FCST LO TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLD COVER. GFS/NAM/UKMET GENERATE QPF OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF FA ON WED AS DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE W THIS MRNG LIFTS NE INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY AND WEAKENS BY LATE IN THE DAY. BUT LACK OF SGNFT ISENTROPIC LIFT/JET DYNAMICS AS WEAKENING TROF GRINDS INTO HI AMPLITUDE RDG/VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IS CAUSE FOR WORRY THAT LTL IF ANY PCPN WL FALL DESPITE SOME DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC. EXCEPT FOR SOME MRNG -DZ OVER THE CNTRL...WL RESTRICT LO CHC POPS LATE IN THE DAY TO AREAS W OF CMX-MNM. ADJUSTED TEMPS WED/WED NGT A TAD TO MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND REFLECT A BIT SMALLER DIURNAL TEMP VARIATION WITH AT LEAST QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD. GOING FCST LO CHC POPS THRU THU IS STILL ON TRACK. COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 100 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 .AVIATION... LOW CLOUDS...MARGINALLY MVFR ATTM...ARE QUICKLY SPREADING WEST INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH INITIAL CEILINGS IN THE 35-45KFT AREA...WILL EASE A BIT MORE SLOWLY DOWN THROUGH MVFR CONDITIONS TO IFR BY DAYBREAK (WITH AT LEAST TEMPO CEILING AOB 1KFT). WOULD EXPECT A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY...BUT STILL EXPECT BKN-OVC SKIES. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME FOG ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS AREA OF STRATUS...AND WILL MAINTAIN VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-5SM RANGE FOR FNT AND ESPECIALLY MBS. ONCE THE CLOUDS GET HERE...THEY WILL BE HERE ON INTO WEDNESDAY OR SO...WITH THE TRICK DETERMINE THE PREDOMINANT CEILING HEIGHTS. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIAL ARE THEMES FOR THIS UPCOMING FORECAST. THE PAST 24 HOURS...UPPER PATTERN HAS BECOME QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH DIGGING TROF ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE PESKY UPPER LOW MIGRATING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PLENTY OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MID WEST. CLOSER EXAMINATION INTO THE CWA SHOWS OUR LAKE STRATUS QUICKLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TRI CITIES WITH PLENTY MORE STRATUS SEEN DOWNSTREAM INTO OH/NY/PA. NUMERICALLY SPEAKING...MODELS ARE DOING A FAIR JOB WITH PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT BUT NOT SO GOOD WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR WEST THIS STRATUS WILL GET INTO THE CWA. LATEST 18Z RUC SHOWS 925-950MB RH FIELDS QUICKLY INCREASING FROM THE EAST AND IMPACTING REGIONS FROM KPHN-KTTF TOWARD 04-06Z THEN BY SUNRISE TOWARD THE TRI CITIES. THIS POSES AN INTERESTING FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE TRI CITIES VICINITIES OVERNIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING...WITH SUNSET OUR WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AS RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. SFC DEWPOINTS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN A LITTLE INCREASE WHICH LEADS US TO GROUND FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. RUC13/NAM12 SFC CPD/S SHOW A RAPID DECREASE AFTER 06Z AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE WILL ADD IN PATCHY FOG. THEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW STRATUS QUICKLY ADVANCING WEST AND INFILTRATING THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH MECHANICAL MIXING FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP... HARD TO IGNORE THE SPOTTY QPF SIGNALS IN THE WRF/GFS/NAM/RUC13. SO WE WILL LOWER THE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MOCLOUDY FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MORE ON THE COOL SIDE, CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS, AS THE MAV SEEMS TOO HIGH. && .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES....WHILE EJECTED 500 MB LOWER MS VALLEY LOW/TROUGH REACHES SOUTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY RETREATS EAST TUESDAY. ESPECIALLY GFS SHOWS SLIGHT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ABOVE 850 MB TO WORK WITH...MAINLY EAST...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN DRIER TREND. 925 MB MOISTURE VERY SOUPY THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. 850 TO 700 MB THETA RIDGE NUDGING FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST EARLY PART OF WEEK. LITTLE TO NO 850 TO 700 MB OMEGA LIFT EARLY PART OF WEEK...WHILE 850 TO 700 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SLIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS EVEN SHOWS WEAK 850 TO 700 MB DEFORMATION IN EAST/SOUTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH NAM SIMILAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...WEAK MODEL SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE SEEN...MAINLY EAST...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM EARLIER FORECAST OF RETAINING CHANCE POPS EASTERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LATER PERIODS... MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH VICINITY OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKES REGION CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHEAST AND ALLOWING SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO SET UP OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY...THEN BROAD TROUGHINESS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND TRANSLATES TO THE EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED THAN OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGING SUBSEQUENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND...THIS SLOWER/WEAKER IDEA ALSO SUPPORTED BY 00Z ECMWF. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL NORTH OF GREAT LAKES WITH CONSENSUS TOWARD BROAD INVERTED TROUGH OVER FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY REPLACED BY RIDGING FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE SUNDAY...ACCORDING TO GFS/DGEX...WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASED MOISTURE/QPF INDICATIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY ESPECIALLY LATE. POSITIVE THETA E ADVECTION FROM 925 MB TO 700 MB ON THE INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH MODEST 300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST NEXT WEEK GIVEN SUPPORT BY BETTER CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS THAN WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. THUS...WILL KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOLDING OFF NEXT MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY IN LIGHT OF ABOVE DISCUSSION. WITH NO STRONG THERMAL ADVECTIONS EXPECTED...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IS ANTICIPATED EITHER...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....DG SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM....DWD mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 228 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... NEXT UL LOW MOVES TOWARD THE AREA TODAY AND THEN HANGS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. SW WITH LOW SPLITS LATER TODAY WITH ONE AREA OF ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS MY SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT. NEITHER MODEL SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AS THE BEST LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NJ. HOWEVER WITH PLENTY OF LL MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY WITH INITIAL SW AND THEN CHANCES SHOULD LESSEN LATER ON TUE AS MAIN ENERGY MOVES OFF EAST COAST. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON TEMPS AGAIN TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB VERY MUCH. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... RIDGE DEVELOPS ON WED AND THU IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FINALLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... LATEST RUC AND NAM MODEL RUNS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT WITH BASE AROUND 2 KFT AGL. THIS WILL KEEP STRATUS BKN015 IN SOME AREAS INTO 12Z-14Z (OVC005 NEAR KDUJ) WHILE STRATOCUMULUS BASES035-050 WILL REMAIN ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY BECAUSE SHOWERS AFTER 20Z WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF REDEVELOPING MVFR STRATUS CEILINGS THEN. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 320 AM CDT MON OCT 10 2005 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN RESPECT TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH WED. GFS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN NAM...AND GFS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN ITS LAST RUN. GFS NOW CONSIDERED THE OUTLIER AMONGST MODELS. THESE SMALL DIFFERENCES THOUGH DID NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIP FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD...WENT WITH A BLEND. CUTOFF CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH WEAK 700MB WAVE EJECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS DISTURBANCE IS GENERATING RAIN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO UNR CWA LATER THIS MORNING. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST AND ACTUALLY WANE DURING THE DAY. DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE COMPLETELY REMOVING POPS THOUGH. STILL DO NOT EXPECT BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO ENTER CWA UNTIL LATE TUES AND DURING THE DAY WED. BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. TRACED THE 700MB WAVE THAT GFS LAYS ON TOP OF US TUES NIGHT BACKWARDS TO THIS MORNING...AND THIS WAVE SHOULD BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN CUTOFF AND HEADING INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY MIDDAY. THIS IS EVIDENCED A BIT ON WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FEATURE LATER TODAY TO SEE IF IT PULLS OUT WITH THE FEATURES THAT THE MODELS GIVE IT. FIDDLED WITH POPS A BIT...BUT NOTHING MAJOR. STILL HAVE NOTHING HIGHER THAN 50 POPS FOR NOW AND HITTING CHANCES THE HARDEST TUES NIGHT AND WED. SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE INTERESTING TODAY. CURRENTLY HAVE A 6000FT DECK ACROSS EASTERN SD THAT STOPS BETWEEN ABR AND ATY/8D3. CEILINGS BELOW 1000FT OCCURRING OVER UNR CWA THIS MORNING. SOME LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY WITH CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALSO MOVING NORTH. ACROSS THE EAST...EXPECT CLOUDS TO ACTUALLY ADVANCE BACK TO THE WEST AND WE DRY ADVECT FROM THE EAST. GFS 800MB RH FIELDS PROVIDED AN EXCELLENT DEPICTION OF CURRENT SITUATION WITH SHARP RH GRADIENT ACROSS THE EAST. THIS GRADIENT MOVES BACK TO THE WEST TODAY BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...INVERTED TROUGH LINING UP ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND CAN BE EVIDENCED NICELY IN SFC OBS. RUC HANDLED THIS BEST THIS MORNING SO USED RUC WIND DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE ILL DEFINED BY THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH NUDGES SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BIGGEST CHALLENGE TO THE LONG TERM FCST REVOLVES AROUND PCPN CHCS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. IN THE NEARER TERM...DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM WILL STILL LEAVE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED FCST. UPPER VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY WITH WAA KICKING IN BY 00Z FRIDAY. QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGES PASS THROUGH THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 85H THERMAL RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND CURRENT TEMP FCST STILL HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...MODELS ARE STILL CONVERGING ON DIFFERING SOLNS. THE 00Z GFS NOW TAKES ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM SEEN 24 HOURS AGO AND RAPIDLY DIGS SYSTEM INTO 4 CORNERS REGION...WITH WEAKENING 5H AND 7H TROFS POSITIONED OVER CWA. THE 09/18Z DGEX IS STILL PROGGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH SOLN...MOVING IT QUICKLY THRU. THE 00Z CANADIAN KEEPS SYSTEM AS AN OPEN NRN STREAM WAVE...AND ALSO QUICKLY MOVES IT THROUGH. THE EC IS THE LEAST IMPRESSED WITH SYSTEM. FEELING IS THAT SOME SORT OF FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA FOR PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...BUT TIMING/LOCATION ARE IFFY AT BEST. WITH SO MUCH DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS...AM GOING TO STICK WITH PERSISTENT DRY FCST AND LET MODELS SETTLE DOWN A BIT BEFORE INSERTING PCPN. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ TT/DH sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 353 AM CDT MON OCT 10 2005 .SHORT TERM... UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRANSLATING FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. PIECE OF ENERGY ALSO SEEN ROTATING NORTHWARD ACRS THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE WITH RADAR DEPICTING BULK OF SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN CWA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NR BOISE CITY OK TO LAS VEGAS NM WITH A SFC LOW LOCATED VERY NR TUCUMCARI. BOTH THE LATEST NAM AND RUC MODELS SEEM TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON SFC FEATURES THIS MORNING WITH SFC LOW DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CUT POPS BACK SOME THROUGH THE MORNING HRS WITH DRY SLOT MOVG THROUGH...THEN INCREASE THEM AGAIN DURG THE AFTN AS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT/DURATION OF CLOUD COVER. FOR NOW...EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS SHIELD TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING WITH SOME SUN EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. ANY HEATING WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH THREAT OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN COLD TEMPS ALOFT. COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS CONTAIN 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH HAIL. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFT MIDNIGHT WITH DOWNGLIDE INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. .LONG TERM... UPPER LOW TO BEGIN EJECTING ONTO THE PLAINS 12Z TUESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH POSSIBLE TIMING ISSUES WILL KEEP POPS AS IS FOR TUESDAY BUT DROP MENTION FOR TUESDAY EVENING. WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND LIKELY SLOW CLEARING WILL TRIM TEMPS BACK TOWARD FWC/MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA. NW FLOW TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO WARRANT THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT NAM IS SUPPORTING THE GFS IN THIS REGARD. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NEXT WEEKEND AND THE SIGNFICANT INCONSISTENCIES AMONGST THE MODELS. 00Z OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS NOW BRINGS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR COLD AND WET WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 18Z ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THIS IS ONE OF SEVERAL POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF MAY BE A BIT BETTER...BUT IT IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH THE RIDGING TO OUR WEST. BEST PATH AT THIS TIME MAY BE TO HOLD THE LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AND 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE GRIDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 61 42 68 46 / 60 50 20 10 TULIA 63 45 68 47 / 60 50 20 10 PLAINVIEW 65 46 68 50 / 50 50 20 10 LEVELLAND 67 47 69 48 / 40 40 20 10 LUBBOCK 68 48 69 51 / 40 50 20 10 BROWNFIELD 70 49 69 50 / 20 40 20 10 CHILDRESS 65 50 71 54 / 60 60 20 10 SPUR 71 51 70 53 / 30 50 20 10 ASPERMONT 73 54 71 55 / 30 50 20 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 21/07 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 820 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM EASTERN CANADA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... WITH BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIFTING NORTHWARD (FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE RUC/GFS SOLUTION) WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR TODAY. COLDER CLOUD TOPS CONTINUING TO LIFT ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUPPORTS BAND OF PRECIPITATION OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS PER KBOX RADAR. THIS AREA TO LIFT INTO THE DOWNEAST ZONES LATER TODAY. NO OTHER CHANGES BEYOND TODAY/TONIGHT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 415 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005) SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM EASTERN CANADA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... CURRENT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. ALL BUT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE ATTM. LATEST MODEL RUN SUGGESTS ONE LAST SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AROUND A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OVERRIDE THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALIGNED THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES TOPS RAPIDLY COOLING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTS EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT WAVE HELPING TO INITIATE THE COLDER TOPS LIFTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS MORNING AND ALONG THE MAINE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH CAN BE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE DOWNEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT ANY STEADY RAIN DOWNEAST TO TAPER OFF VERY LATE TONIGHT. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME CLEARING TO THE AREA. A BAND OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHWESTERN AREAS BUT THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH WILL BRING CHILLY NIGHTS WITH A LIGHT FROST LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SOME NORTHERN AREAS. DAYS WILL BE SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES WITH CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN. AVIATION...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN. HYDROLOGY...THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT DOVER FOXCROFT HAS PEAKED AT 10.9 FT AT 11:45 PM SUNDAY NIGHT. FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FT. THE CURRENT RIVER LEVEL IS AT 10.7 FT AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RECEDE. AS A RESULT...THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT DOVER FOXCROFT HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS...SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT... HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES CONTINUES WITH MANY SMALL STREAMS AND BROOKS STILL OUT OF THEIR BANKS. SOME ROADS CONTINUE TO BE FLOODED. MARINE...SCA FOR SEAS WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 8 FT EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 5 FT BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE LARGE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ050 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. $$ SHORT TERM/MARINE...FITZSIMMONS LONG TERM/MARINE...BLOOMER AVIATION...NORTON me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 955 AM CDT MON OCT 10 2005 .DISCUSSION... LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE CENTER OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME CONVECTION WAS OCCURING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HIGH CLOUD BLOW OFF FROM THE CONVECTION WAS MOVING EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING PROGS BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE WAS PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION. 850 PROGS SHOWS THAT TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND 17C. EXPECT THE AIRMASS TO MIX OUT TO THAT HEIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BRING TEMPS FROM UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SO WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE UPPED THE TEMPS ABOUT 1 CATEGORY ACROSS THE REGION. MOST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL NOT GET TO THE CWA UNTIL TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MAXIMUM HEATING. OTHERWISE THE REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. && .AVIATION...IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY VFR FORECAST FOR THE 1800 UTC TAF PACKAGE WITH SOME SCT250 FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND BKN250 FOR THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF BR IN MANY SPOTS AGAIN TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING FLIGHT CATEGORIES INTO MVFR TERRITORY AGAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY FOR KGLH AND KGWO. /17/ && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM: 17 ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1133 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... THE RADAR IS BACK DOWN WILL BE DOWN UNTIL TUESDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT LEAST. PARTS ARE ON ORDER. LATEST FREE TEXT MSG SENT. && QUICK UPDATE TODAY TO BUMP HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE 500 MB LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST VIA THE LATEST 40 KM RUC. HIT AND MISS DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN IS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. RADAR BEAM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSHOOT THE LIGHT PCPN. MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF RAIN OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND ERN LONG ISLAND AT 15Z. HAVE TRIED TO TREND THINGS BACK A LITTLE UNTIL AFTER 22Z. HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AND TRENDED TO CHANCE VALUES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. IT WILL BE A GRAY AND DAMP DAY. FLOOD WARNING UP STILL FOR THE HOUSATONIC RIVER BASIN. A NEW FLS WILL BE ISSUED BY 16Z. ALL OTHER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLOOD WARNING FOR HOUSATONIC. MA...FLOOD WARNING FOR HOUSATONIC. NY...NONE VT...NONE && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 129 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... A MASS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER WARM AIR MASS. HOWEVER... RELATIVELY COOL AIR IS IN A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR THE EARTH'S SURFACE. THUS...THE VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE A SHARP THERMAL INVERSION. THE RADIOSONDE PLOT FOR ALBANY SUNDAY EVENING INDICATED THAT THE MAIN INVERSION WAS LOCATED AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET...WITH A MINOR INVERSION AROUND 14 HUNDRED. THE INVERTED ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE...TO INHIBIT VERTICAL MIXING. THEREFORE...SOME OF THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH EXTENDED UPWARD TO ABOUT 12 THOUSAND FEET AT ALBANY SATURDAY EVENING...WILL REMAIN. AND LOTS OF CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TODAY. A MINOR SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE TODAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL NOT IMPACT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY. INSTEAD...THE DYNAMICS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE WITH A SHARP STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE AXIS OF A HIGH LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WAS FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA SUNDAY EVENING. IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD TO BE FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN TO THE WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...FAVORABLE TO DIVERGENCE...WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD AS WELL...AND THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS CAPE COD THIS EVENING. THESE MODIFICATIONS TO THE CIRCULATION WILL FAVOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAINFALL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST OF THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL MODELS IS PROBLEMATIC. THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL IS FORECASTING A TOTALLY DRY DAY. THE NORTH AMERICAN MESOSCALE MODEL HAS SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...AND THE AVIATION HAS ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH FORECAST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN MODEL HAS CATEGORICAL VALUES IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR TODAY...TAPERING TO CHANCE VALUES IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THE AVIATION AND NESTED GRID FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR...AND OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST ALIGNS WELL WITH THIS GUIDANCE. CLEARLY THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL IS AN OUTLIER...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY ITS GLOBAL COUNTERPART. WE DECIDED TO GIVE LESS CREDENCE TO ANY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES. GAME PLAN IS TO STICK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT CUT BACK ON THE PROBABILITIES VALUES A BIT. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY WAS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE...DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS. THUS... WE'LL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE ON THE NEXT FORECAST...AND MAY TWEAK IT UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE CANADIAN REGIONAL CONTINUES TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT. THE NORTH AMERICAN BACKS THE PRECIPITATION BACK TOWARD THE ATLANTIC REGION LATER TONIGHT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL TONIGHT...AND OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST AND A CHANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. WE'LL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR TONIGHT...BUT WILL TWEAK THE PROBABILITIES LOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITH THE CANADIAN FORECAST IN MIND. MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS ABOVE FROST CRITERION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN MODEL SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINOUS WESTERN REGION WILL BE JUST ABOVE THE FROST ADVISORY VALUES. WE BELIEVE THAT...AT THE LEAST THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS...EVEN IF IT DOESN'T RAIN...SO WE'RE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FROST OCCURRING. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND THROUGH EASTERN CANADA IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTS IN THE BUILDING OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE DRIFTS ACROSS JAMES BAY WHILE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REINFORCES THE EASTERLY GRADIENT LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY. THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND PROBABLY THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOO. THUS...WE LOOK FOR LOTS OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH A BIT STRONGER SURFACE WIND...PROBABLY NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODEL PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BUILDING ANTICYCLONE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOWERING THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ONCE AGAIN...THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL CHECKS IN WITH A DRY FORECAST. WE CONTINUED WITH THE GAME PLAN...LOWER THE PROBABILITY GUIDANCE VALUES...BUT MAINTAIN A MENTION OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL FORECAST...RAINFALL TUESDAY IS IN DOUBT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY APPEARS LIKELY TO BE DIMINISHED BY A STRONGLY BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE AVIATION AND NORTH AMERICAN AND EVEN THE UNITED KINGDOM'S METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ARE PAINTING A DIFFERENT SCENARIO...HOWEVER. THEY SUGGEST THAT THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY SOMEWHAT LONGER THAN THE CANADIAN. THUS...THESE MODELS BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF RAINFALL LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN MODEL IS SLIGHTLY BELOW TODAY'S VALUES. THE AVIATION IS A BIT HIGHER...AS IS THE NESTED GRID. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST WENT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY THAN ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY. WE FELT IT BEST TO MAINTAIN SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO TODAY'S FORECAST...FIGURING LOTS OF CLOUDINESS...AND A BIT OF REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL LOW LEVEL AIR DUE TO A STRONGER GRADIENT LEVEL WIND CIRCULATION. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A CHANCE OF RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS...WE DECIDED IT WAS BEST TO STICK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NOW. WE DON'T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS TO THE ULTIMATE OUTCOME DURING THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... AND WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE ENTERING THIS PERIOD...WE THOUGHT IT BEST TO RIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH READS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...DRY ON THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OF RESTRICTED VISIBILITY AS WELL IN MIST...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LATE AT NIGHT. IT IS LIKELY TO BE DRY TODAY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A NORTHERLY BREEZE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER TUESDAY...THEREFORE THE SURFACE WIND IS LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED. LOOK FOR NORTHERLY WIND MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MILES AN HOUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOTS OF MOISTURE LINGERS FROM THE WEEKEND RAINFALL AND WE EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FAIRLY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THERE'S EVEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. SEE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED HALF AN INCH THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL IS SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON WATER LEVELS...AND IF ANYTHING THEY ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE. NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE MID OR LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...WASULA ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1123 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... QUICK UPDATE TODAY TO BUMP HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE 500 MB LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST VIA THE LATEST 40 KM RUC. ALY RADAR WAS DOWN AND IS BACK UP. HIT AND MISS DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN IS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. RADAR BEAM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSHOOT THE LIGHT PCPN. MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF RAIN OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND ERN LONG ISLAND AT 15Z. HAVE TRIED TO TREND THINGS BACK A LITTLE UNTIL AFTER 22Z. HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AND TRENDED TO CHANCE VALUES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. IT WILL BE A GRAY AND DAMP DAY. FLOOD WARNING UP STILL FOR THE HOUSATONIC RIVER BASIN. A NEW FLS WILL BE ISSUED BY 16Z. ALL OTHER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLOOD WARNING FOR HOUSATONIC. MA...FLOOD WARNING FOR HOUSATONIC. NY...NONE VT...NONE && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 129 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... A MASS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER WARM AIR MASS. HOWEVER... RELATIVELY COOL AIR IS IN A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR THE EARTH'S SURFACE. THUS...THE VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE A SHARP THERMAL INVERSION. THE RADIOSONDE PLOT FOR ALBANY SUNDAY EVENING INDICATED THAT THE MAIN INVERSION WAS LOCATED AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET...WITH A MINOR INVERSION AROUND 14 HUNDRED. THE INVERTED ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE...TO INHIBIT VERTICAL MIXING. THEREFORE...SOME OF THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH EXTENDED UPWARD TO ABOUT 12 THOUSAND FEET AT ALBANY SATURDAY EVENING...WILL REMAIN. AND LOTS OF CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TODAY. A MINOR SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE TODAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL NOT IMPACT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY. INSTEAD...THE DYNAMICS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE WITH A SHARP STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE AXIS OF A HIGH LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WAS FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA SUNDAY EVENING. IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD TO BE FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN TO THE WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...FAVORABLE TO DIVERGENCE...WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD AS WELL...AND THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS CAPE COD THIS EVENING. THESE MODIFICATIONS TO THE CIRCULATION WILL FAVOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAINFALL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST OF THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL MODELS IS PROBLEMATIC. THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL IS FORECASTING A TOTALLY DRY DAY. THE NORTH AMERICAN MESOSCALE MODEL HAS SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...AND THE AVIATION HAS ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH FORECAST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN MODEL HAS CATEGORICAL VALUES IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR TODAY...TAPERING TO CHANCE VALUES IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THE AVIATION AND NESTED GRID FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR...AND OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST ALIGNS WELL WITH THIS GUIDANCE. CLEARLY THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL IS AN OUTLIER...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY ITS GLOBAL COUNTERPART. WE DECIDED TO GIVE LESS CREDENCE TO ANY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES. GAME PLAN IS TO STICK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT CUT BACK ON THE PROBABILITIES VALUES A BIT. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY WAS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE...DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS. THUS... WE'LL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE ON THE NEXT FORECAST...AND MAY TWEAK IT UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE CANADIAN REGIONAL CONTINUES TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT. THE NORTH AMERICAN BACKS THE PRECIPITATION BACK TOWARD THE ATLANTIC REGION LATER TONIGHT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL TONIGHT...AND OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST AND A CHANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. WE'LL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR TONIGHT...BUT WILL TWEAK THE PROBABILITIES LOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITH THE CANADIAN FORECAST IN MIND. MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS ABOVE FROST CRITERION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN MODEL SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINOUS WESTERN REGION WILL BE JUST ABOVE THE FROST ADVISORY VALUES. WE BELIEVE THAT...AT THE LEAST THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS...EVEN IF IT DOESN'T RAIN...SO WE'RE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FROST OCCURRING. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND THROUGH EASTERN CANADA IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTS IN THE BUILDING OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE DRIFTS ACROSS JAMES BAY WHILE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REINFORCES THE EASTERLY GRADIENT LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY. THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND PROBABLY THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOO. THUS...WE LOOK FOR LOTS OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH A BIT STRONGER SURFACE WIND...PROBABLY NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODEL PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BUILDING ANTICYCLONE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOWERING THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ONCE AGAIN...THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL CHECKS IN WITH A DRY FORECAST. WE CONTINUED WITH THE GAME PLAN...LOWER THE PROBABILITY GUIDANCE VALUES...BUT MAINTAIN A MENTION OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL FORECAST...RAINFALL TUESDAY IS IN DOUBT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY APPEARS LIKELY TO BE DIMINISHED BY A STRONGLY BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE AVIATION AND NORTH AMERICAN AND EVEN THE UNITED KINGDOM'S METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ARE PAINTING A DIFFERENT SCENARIO...HOWEVER. THEY SUGGEST THAT THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY SOMEWHAT LONGER THAN THE CANADIAN. THUS...THESE MODELS BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF RAINFALL LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN MODEL IS SLIGHTLY BELOW TODAY'S VALUES. THE AVIATION IS A BIT HIGHER...AS IS THE NESTED GRID. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST WENT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY THAN ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY. WE FELT IT BEST TO MAINTAIN SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO TODAY'S FORECAST...FIGURING LOTS OF CLOUDINESS...AND A BIT OF REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL LOW LEVEL AIR DUE TO A STRONGER GRADIENT LEVEL WIND CIRCULATION. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A CHANCE OF RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS...WE DECIDED IT WAS BEST TO STICK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NOW. WE DON'T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS TO THE ULTIMATE OUTCOME DURING THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... AND WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE ENTERING THIS PERIOD...WE THOUGHT IT BEST TO RIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH READS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...DRY ON THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OF RESTRICTED VISIBILITY AS WELL IN MIST...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LATE AT NIGHT. IT IS LIKELY TO BE DRY TODAY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A NORTHERLY BREEZE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER TUESDAY...THEREFORE THE SURFACE WIND IS LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED. LOOK FOR NORTHERLY WIND MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MILES AN HOUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOTS OF MOISTURE LINGERS FROM THE WEEKEND RAINFALL AND WE EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FAIRLY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THERE'S EVEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. SEE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED HALF AN INCH THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL IS SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON WATER LEVELS...AND IF ANYTHING THEY ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE. NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE MID OR LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...WASULA ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1140 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 .UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON)... AN UPDATED ZFP/AFM/PFM HAS BEEN SENT ON THE PUBLIC SIDE. THE MORNING CWF ALSO INCLUDED SOME CHANGES. DIGITAL GRIDS SHOULD POST SOON. THE NAM/GFS/RUC ALL SHOWED AN APPROACHING S/W TO BE IN A DIFFERENT LOCATION BY DAYS END. LOOKING AT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS TO OUR SOUTH, IT APPEARS THE GFS AND RUC WERE CLOSER TO REALITY. BASED ON THIS, WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE DELMARVA AND NJ COASTAL PLAIN AS SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES. POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THIS REGION. ONLY TWO OTHER CHANGES TO NOTE. TEMPS WERE NOTCHED OR EXPANDED DOWN A CATEGORY IN JUST A LOCATION OR TWO AND WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS NEEDED TO BE RAMPED UP A CATEGORY(DID THIS IN THE FORM OF GUSTS). AN UPDATED FLS WAS SENT EARLIER FOR THE PASSAIC AND RAMAPO RIVER BASINS. RISES ARE STILL EXPECTED AND COULD BE FURTHER EXACERBATED BY MORE RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. KRUZDLO && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... AS OF 4:00 AM THE ONLY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT REMAINING IN EFFECT IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE FOR POINTS IN THE PASSAIC RIVER BASIN. A WIDE RIBBON OF DEVELOPING PRECIP EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO NEAR CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRECIP IS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE RAIN IS POSSIBLY BEING ENHANCED BY THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. THE PRECIP AND THE FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST. FOR TODAY WE SHOULD RECEIVE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND IT SHOULD REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF RAIN DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AS TROPICAL AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT. WE'LL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION AND IT WILL DISCUSS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN DURING THE COMING DAYS. FORTUNATELY, THE AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THOSE FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, THE MID LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. IT SHOULD PASS OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE FEATURE APPROACHES IT MAY ENHANCE THE PRECIP A BIT. ONCE THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES UP OVER NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN OUR REGION. CLOUDS AND AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, SOME DRYING WILL BE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW, EVEN THROUGH FRIDAY, DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST GRAPHIC KEPT A 20 POP WITH SLIGHT CHC IN THEM. && .AVIATION... AN INCREASINGLY MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MAINLY IFR/LIFR, BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY LIFT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TODAY. AN AREA OF RAIN OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PUSH SLOWLY WEST MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP N TO NE WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL FALL SLOWLY TO 3 TO 5 FT TUESDAY, THEN INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FT LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR BERMUDA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...STAUBER AVIATION/MARINE...RPW pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 927 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... MORNING UPDATE WILL RAISE POPS IN EASTERN ZONES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. RUC AND ETA 12 BOTH SHOW SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AREA WITH A VV AND PRECIP MAX JUST TO THE WEST OF I77. NOT GOING TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME ELEVATED LAPS RATES THIS MORNING AROUND 700 MB...THEY SEEM TO DIE OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODELS WANT TO SCOUR OUT WEDGE THIS AFTERNOON... BUT THEY ARE ALWAYS TOO FAST...SO PLAN TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 315 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... THE MOST IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION LIFTING OUT OF THE MIDLANDS INTO THE SC PIEDMONT ATTM. LF QUAD OF A MAX IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET (BEST SEEN AT H25) COMBINED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN CULPRITS IN MAINTAINING THIS ACTIVITY. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH FARTHER NORTH IT WILL MAKE IT BEFORE PETERING OUT...BUT THE UPGLIDE/JET DIVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN WITH INCREASING LATITUDE. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ACROSS PART OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING...BUT PROBABLY LIMIT IT TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT WEST AND NORTH OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TODAY...WITH SEVERAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE INTO WNC. REGIONAL 88D/S INDICATE ALL OF THE PRECIP DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE UPPER LOW IS CONFINED TO THE DEFORMATION ZONE (CENTRAL KENTUCKY) ATTM. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARD TO WHAT DEGREE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY SPOKES WILL PLAY IN FORCING PRECIP. CONSIDERING THE WEAKNESS OF THE FORCING...AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE...MET MOS CONTINUES TO APPEAR MUCH TOO WET TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA (HIGH LIKELY TO CAT POPS.) PREFER THE MORE CONSERVATIVE MAV MOS...ALTHOUGH WILL GO A HAIR ABOVE THIS WITH A 40 POP WEST AND A 50 POP EAST. UPGLIDE AND JET DIVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPGLIDE...CLOUDS WILL BE MUCH MORE STUBBORN TO ERODE...LIMITING DIURNAL TEMP RANGE TO 5-6 DEGREES AT BEST. TOKEN LOW CHANCE POPS LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NC ZONES...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EAST AND NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE UPPER JET AXIS. LOW CLOUDS/ WEDGE-LIKE WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT UPGLIDE APPEARS QUITE WEAK ON TUE...SO WOULD EXPECT SOME AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...AND WILL ADVERTISE MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE TODAY/S VALUES ALONG WITH A DRY FORECAST. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEAK...BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AND/OR FORCING TO WARRANT A POP MENTION...UNTIL PERHAPS FRIDAY...WHEN THE GFS ADVERTISES A SIGNIFICANT SW TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. AVIATION... ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS APPEARS THE STRONGEST OVER THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF MIDLANDS ON KGSP RADAR SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE MORE STABLE AIR TO THE NW...LEAVING MAINLY DRIZZLE AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION. UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH WEAK SUPPORT FROM TAIL OF PASSING UPPER VORT TO THE WEST COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN FROM KAND TO KAVL AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE...LOWERING STRATUS DECK WILL YIELD LIFR CIG CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT BY 10Z...WITH ONLY A SLOW AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON. A QUICK RETURN TO IFR IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VAD sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1045 AM CDT MON OCT 10 2005 .UPDATE...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS MORNING WITH 15Z MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE TROF ALONG THE COAST. STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH OVERLAID RUC ANALYSIS DOESNT SHOW ANY DISTINGUISHABLE SHORTWAVE...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A NARROW SHEAR AXIS LINED UP FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST DOWN INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO. 12Z CRP SOUNDING IS UNSTABLE WITH 2.1 INCH PW...BUT IT ALSO SHOWS DEEP 35KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH THE VAD STILL SUPPORTS AT THIS HOUR. WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NEAR A VCT TO COT LINE...DO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF PRECIP. WILL LEAVE 30-40 POPS ALONE FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ DUNN tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1058 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... TWO SOURCES OF PRECIP FOR THIS AFTN...1ST IS FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE THAT SHOWS EVIDENCE IN SAT PIX AND RADAR OF RETROGRADING BACK TO COAST...SECOND IS AREA OF RAIN OVER CENT NC...MOVING NNE AHEAD OF 5H VORT EVIDENT IN RUC ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED BY LATE AFTN POPS TO CAT ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND SRN 1/3 OF CWA (COMBO OF EFFECTS OF FRONT AND VORT)...KEPT CHC POPS OVR NRN NECK ADN DORCHESTER COUNTY W/ LIKLEY POPS IN BTWN. ALSO NOTING LIGHTNING ACTIVITY JUST OFFSHORE AND OVER CENT NC...AHVE ADDED SLGT CHC OF THUNDER ACRS SRN 1/3 AS WELL THIS AFTN. REMAINDER OF FCST GENLY ON TRACK (XCPT HAD TO BUMP UP TEMPS NEAR ALBERMARLE SOUND ADN OBX (ALREADY IN L-M 70S). ON THE MARIEN SIDE RAISED SCA FOR LOWER BAY BASD ON EXPECTATION OF 4FT WAVES IN MOUTH BYA DUE TO PERSISTANT 15KT ONSHORE FLOW. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 317 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... LATEST SFC OBS SHOW COASTAL TROF FROM THE SE COAST...NEWD ALONG THE LOWER OUTER BANKS...WITH A SFC RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW LAYER OF COOLER AIR...DAMMING E OF THE APPALACHIANS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WRN KY AND TN...AND DRIFTING TOWARD THE NNE. RADAR COMPOSITES SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS INVOF COASTAL FRONT...FROM CAPE HATTERAS...NEWD AND OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO INDICATED OVER TN AND KY...AND ALSO OVER S CAROLINA. THESE SHOWERS WERE LIKELY ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW...AS INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TODAY...EXPECT WEAK VORT TO ROTATE NWD ON ERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. ACTIVITY NOW OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF S CAROLINA APPEARS TO BE ASSOC WITH THIS VORT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY COMING ASHORE OVER THE LOWER OUTER BANKS...GENERALLY FROM CAPE HATTERAS ON SOUTH. MODELS SUGGEST SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DRAWN INLAND...TO OVER SE PORTIONS OF THE FA...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NAM AND GFS DIFFER ON HOW FAR INLAND THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY MIGHT SET UP. PREFER NAM IDEA OF KEEPING BETTER CHANCES OF ACTIVITY OVER ERN ZONES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RATHER THAN THE GFS SCENARIO WEHRE BAND OF RAIN/SHOWERS MOVES STEADILY NWWD ACROSS THE FA...ASSOC WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WAA. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE BY TUE AFTERRNOON. AS UPPER VORT SHIFTS E. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... SOME CLEARING AND WARMING FINALLY POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...AS WEDGE ERODES. COOLER AND DRIER AIR POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND. AVIATION... IFR / MVFR CNDTNS CONT THRU FCST PRD DUE TO WDSPRD STRATUS ALONG WITH AREAS OF -RADZ/BR. MARINE...CONT SCA CNDTNS MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU TUE (CRNTLY 5-6 FT) ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT N-NE FLOW AOB 15 KTS. HAVE TRENDED SEAS UP (5-8 FT) FROM WED ON AS SWELLS FROM OCEAN STORM APPRCHS E COAST. AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ650-652-654-656- 658 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY. $$ SHORT TERM...REILLY LONG TERM...REILLY AVIATION...44 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ632-650-652-654- 656-658 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...MALOIT va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 445 PM EST MON OCT 10 2005 .UPDATE... DRIZZLE IS ONGOING ATTM ACRS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWFA THIS AFTN. THUS...HAVE UPDATE ZONES TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO...ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW LVL CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH OVER THE REGION INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY EVE. DRY AIR OUT OF LWR MI OVER NW CWA STARTING TO BE IMPACTED BY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING. GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FCST TIMEFRAME AS STRONG HIGH CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO BRING E-NE LOW LVL FLOW. NE FLOW THEN CONTINUES TO LEAVE LOW LVL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND INTO TUE EVE WITH NOT MUCH RISE IN TEMPS. BASICALLY RAISED MINS A FEW TNT...AND LOWERED MAXS TUE A FEW MORE AS ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY. ADDED IN PATCHY DRIZZLE TNT OVER EASTERN 2/3RD AS NEAR SFC SATURATION OCCURS IN THAT REGION...THIS WAS BASED ON RUC/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS WHICH HANDLED -RA/DZ QUITE WELL FOR TODAY AND CLOSE TO 12Z ACTUAL SOUNDINGS NEAR CWA. RAISED POPS TO 14 DUE TO MOST OF DZ ACTIVITY ADDING UP TO A TRACE LIKE TODAY. OVERALL BOTH NAM/GFS TOO COOL TNT/WARM TRW (ESPECIALLY GFS) AND WENT BLO GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN. LONG TERM... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FEW CHANGES MAINLY TO DAYS 2 AND 3 IN REGARDS TO PESKY INVERSION EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. 850 MB WAA WILL CONTINUE BUT TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MSTR WILL NOT GO ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND LITTLE OVERALL DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW STATES AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FOR TUES NGT AND WEDS. SOME UPGLIDE IS NOTED ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES AND PLENTY OF MSTR WILL BE AVAILABLE. AS A RESULT...WILL ADD AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TO ALL AREAS FOR TUES NGT. MAY NEED SOMETHING MENTIONED INTO WEDS AS WELL...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. AS MAIN TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT. AGREE WITH THINKING OF PREV SHIFT THAT MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND WITH SUCH DIFFERENCES...NO WAY YOU CAN REASONABLY LATCH ONTO ANY PARTICULAR MODEL WHEN THEY ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CURRENT SCENARIO...LITTLE ALONE LATER PERIODS. SO CONTINUED WITH CHC POPS WEDS NGT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED FOR TEMPS...AS LONG AS INVERSION AND LOW CLOUDS HOLD...TEMPS NOT A GOING ANYWHERE. WITH WARMER 850 MB TEMPS...POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S EXISTS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH IF PATTERN PERSISTS. HAVE BROUGHT UP MORNING LOWS AS WELL NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO HIGHER DEWPTS. ONCE SYSTEM GOES BY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...RETURN TO EAST TO NE FLOW AND COOL CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION... KSBN WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS TILL TONIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER TO LOW END MVFR OVERNIGHT. FWA A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED BEING VFR VIS AND IFR CIGS TO START TAF PERIOD. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD AND OVERALL IFR CIGS WILL STAY IN PLACE WHILE VIS SHOULD LOWER TOWARDS IFR VIS NEAR 8Z TUE. SBN WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED WITH POSSIBILITY OF ALSO LOWERING TO IFR CIGS TUE AM. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HICKMAN AVIATION/SHORT TERM...WAMSLEY LONG TERM....FISHER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 300 PM EST MON OCT 10 2005 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW LVL CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH OVER THE REGION INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY EVE. DRY AIR OUT OF LWR MI OVER NW CWA STARTING TO BE IMPACTED BY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING. GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FCST TIMEFRAME AS STRONG HIGH CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO BRING E-NE LOW LVL FLOW. NE FLOW THEN CONTINUES TO LEAVE LOW LVL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND INTO TUE EVE WITH NOT MUCH RISE IN TEMPS. BASICALLY RAISED MINS A FEW TNT...AND LOWERED MAXS TUE A FEW MORE AS ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY. ADDED IN PATCHY DRIZZLE TNT OVER EASTERN 2/3RD AS NEAR SFC SATURATION OCCURS IN THAT REGION...THIS WAS BASED ON RUC/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS WHICH HANDLED -RA/DZ QUITE WELL FOR TODAY AND CLOSE TO 12Z ACTUAL SOUNDINGS NEAR CWA. RAISED POPS TO 14 DUE TO MOST OF DZ ACTIVITY ADDING UP TO A TRACE LIKE TODAY. OVERALL BOTH NAM/GFS TOO COOL TNT/WARM TRW (ESPECIALLY GFS) AND WENT BLO GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FEW CHANGES MAINLY TO DAYS 2 AND 3 IN REGARDS TO PESKY INVERSION EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. 850 MB WAA WILL CONTINUE BUT TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MSTR WILL NOT GO ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND LITTLE OVERALL DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW STATES AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FOR TUES NGT AND WEDS. SOME UPGLIDE IS NOTED ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES AND PLENTY OF MSTR WILL BE AVAILABLE. AS A RESULT...WILL ADD AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TO ALL AREAS FOR TUES NGT. MAY NEED SOMETHING MENTIONED INTO WEDS AS WELL...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. AS MAIN TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT. AGREE WITH THINKING OF PREV SHIFT THAT MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND WITH SUCH DIFFERENCES...NO WAY YOU CAN REASONABLY LATCH ONTO ANY PARTICULAR MODEL WHEN THEY ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CURRENT SCENARIO...LITTLE ALONE LATER PERIODS. SO CONTINUED WITH CHC POPS WEDS NGT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED FOR TEMPS...AS LONG AS INVERSION AND LOW CLOUDS HOLD...TEMPS NOT A GOING ANYWHERE. WITH WARMER 850 MB TEMPS...POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S EXISTS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH IF PATTERN PERSISTS. HAVE BROUGHT UP MORNING LOWS AS WELL NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO HIGHER DEWPTS. ONCE SYSTEM GOES BY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...RETURN TO EAST TO NE FLOW AND COOL CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION... KSBN WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS TILL TONIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER TO LOW END MVFR OVERNIGHT. FWA A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED BEING VFR VIS AND IFR CIGS TO START TAF PERIOD. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD AND OVERALL IFR CIGS WILL STAY IN PLACE WHILE VIS SHOULD LOWER TOWARDS IFR VIS NEAR 8Z TUE. SBN WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED WITH POSSIBILITY OF ALSO LOWERING TO IFR CIGS TUE AM. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ AVIATION/SHORT TERM...WAMSLEY LONG TERM....FISHER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 333 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT WEATHER...19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED SW FLOW FROM A SHRTWV TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE OTHER FEATURE THAT CAN BE SEEN VERY WELL IS AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A DEFORMATION BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF IT...WHICH BROUGHT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INTO DENVER THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...A 583 DAM HIGH RESIDES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. DESPITE THE HIGH HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES OBSERVED OF 8-10C THIS MORNING ON 12Z RAOBS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A STRONG INVERSION AT 900MB AS SEEN ON THE 12Z GRB AND APX SOUNDINGS. THIS NE FLOW IS OCCURRING ON THE SE SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE NE FLOW HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN MOISTURE OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. AND DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO NW WI/DLH AREA. MOST OF THESE CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER LOW CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO INTO NW LAKE HURON. CEILINGS WITHIN THIS CLOUD DECK ARE 2000 FT OR LESS. ALL THESE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION MENTIONED BEFORE... SINCE ABOVE THE INVERSION...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30C OR MORE WERE OBSERVED ON THE 12Z KGRB AND KAPX SOUNDINGS. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE APPROACHING CLOUD COVER FROM THE EAST. BOTH NAM/GFS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LOW CLOUDS AND ARE BOTH IN GREAT AGREEMENT. WITH THE WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION OUT OF THE ENE...MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUD WILL END UP STAYING SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME MAY WANT TO CREEP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND LUCE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THUS HAVE INCREASING CLOUD COVER THERE. THE OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN AS SURFACE WINDS DROP OFF IN THE INTERIOR. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE TONIGHT THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES AND SOMEWHAT LOW DEWPOINTS (MIN TEMPS FORECASTED INTO THE MID 30S IN THE INTERIOR)...HAVE PUT PATCHY FOG IN. 975MB WINDS OF 5-10KT AND 950MB WINDS OF 10-15 KT SHOULD PREVENT THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND DENSE...BUT THE FOG WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE EVENT THE WINDS DROP OFF MORE THAN EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY...WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION TURN A BIT MORE TO THE SE...CAUSING THE LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD NW ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P....AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z NAM QPF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST OUT IN THE WEST WHERE THE MOST SUNSHINE OCCURS AND SE FLOW DOWNSLOPES. THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL ALSO HELP PREVENT THE LOW CLOUDS ARRIVING THERE TOO (LIKE IT DID TODAY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO). FLOW TURNING EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW LOW CEILINGS TO COVER ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN BY 06Z...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO HOLD TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ALL THESE WIND CHANGES TO THE SOUTHEAST ARE A RESULT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO STRENGTHENING AND BUILDING INTO QUEBEC. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO EJECTS OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z WED AS A RESULT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD. THIS EJECTING UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS NOTED VERY WELL IN THE ISENTROPIC FIELDS AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS...SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION/LIFT. THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW NEARING...SO THERE MIGHT BE A CHANCE OF GETTING SOME RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DRY AIR BETWEEN 900-700MB THAT HAS BEEN OVER UPPER MICHIGAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND NOTED ON TODAY\S GRB/APX SOUNDINGS MAY TAKE AWHILE TO MOISTEN. THEREFORE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK REASONABLE. BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR THEN...BUT AGAIN THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SO AM NOT READY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS. IN FACT...MUCH OF THE RAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME MAY END UP BEING DRIZZLE SINCE THE LAYER BELOW 900MB REMAINS SATURATED AND VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE WEAK. WITH A WEAK WIND FIELD PROGGED TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY STICK AROUND...BUT WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW SPLITTING INTO TWO PIECES (ONE HEADING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE OTHER TO MISSOURI)...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FOR THURSDAY. THIS IS NOTED BY THE 30 POPS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SKIES SHOULD TRY TO CLEAR OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM (SEE EXTENDED BELOW). DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP DUE TO CLOUD COVER. EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MAJOR CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE LATEST FEW MODEL RUNS SINCE YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 00Z UKMET...00Z ECMWF AND ITS PREVIOUS RUN NOW SHOW THE FORMATION OF A DEEP EASTERN TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHRTWV (CURRENT EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH) AND REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST. 00Z CANADIAN AND 06Z GFS SHOW SOMETHING SIMILAR WITH AN EASTERN TROUGH...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE OF THE ECMWF. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE ECMWF MAY BE TOO DEEP WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH BECAUSE OF THE CANADIAN/GFS AND A CONTINUED POSITIVE NAO PATTERN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...HOWEVER WITH THE GOOD VERIFICATION OF THE UKMET/ECMWF...IT IS HARD TO GO AGAINST THEM. THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW A COMPROMISE OF THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF RUN. FOR FRIDAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV SHOULD MOVE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY WITH THIS FRONT STILL LOOKS SLIM AS THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS DUE TO THE DYNAMICS. NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN INCREASINGLY DRY AND COOLER AIR ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO WILL NOT NEED TO WORRY ABOUT SYNOPTIC PRECIP. AS FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT CHANCES...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 0-2C...RESULTING IN DELTA-TS OF 10-11C. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE EASTERN LAKE SINCE THIS IS GETTING CLOSE TO THE MAGICAL 13C NUMBER BUT NOT INTRODUCE PRECIP YET. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SAT WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY DAY. AS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAKE THIS AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT A FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT STILL APPEARS REASONABLE BASED ON THE 00Z ECMWF AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE 00Z CANADIAN. WILL DELAY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY WITH A SLOWER TIMING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST. A COOLER AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C. WOULD BE TEMPTED TO INCLUDE SOME LAKE EFFECT CHANCES...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN...AM RELUCTANT AT THIS POINT TO INSERT LAKE EFFECT CHANCES. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE MONDAY DRY. SEE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF FOR EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 150 PM CDT MON OCT 10 2005 .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE CENTER OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME CONVECTION WAS OCCURING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER IN THE WESTERN ZONES IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS TAKES THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BRINGS IN SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME WESTERN MISSISSIPPI ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE AROUND 1.5 INCHES WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ANY KIND OF CONVECTION. SO WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE REGION. 850 TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR 17C IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WHERE I HAVE LOWER 80S AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ON TUESDAY. SOME STRATUS MAY COME BACK TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SO HAVE MID 70S IN THE NORTH FOR HIGHS. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MAV POPS FOR THE WEST. ALSO MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO ADJUSTED MAV TEMPS...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY. THANKS FOR COORDINATION KMEG. /17/ LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS NEW FORECAST FROM PREV ONES AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS HOLDING FIRM AND CONFIDENCE IS GROWING. FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS SHOULD KEEP SFC DEWPTS SLOWLY MODIFYING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH A FEW SITES...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE...SEEING LOWER 60S. THIS WEAKENING RIDGE WILL BE THE REFLECTION OF A LARGE UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AND SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRI AND HELP PUSH A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THE VERTICAL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL ONLY SUPPORT CLOUDS AS THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES. LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL GO WITH A MIX OF 5-10% FOR POPS THU NIGHT-FRI. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE INTO SAT AND THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER GREAT FALL WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS WHERE WE DEVIATE QUITE A BIT FROM THE GUIDANCE. I'M HAVING A REAL HARD TIME BELIEVING THE WARM GFS GUIDANCE WHICH IS ADVERTISING MID TO UPPER 50S FOR LOWS SAT-MON AND LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. THESE VALUES ARE QUITE WARM AND RESIDE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE VS CLIMO. THIS DOESN'T MAKE MUCH SENSE WHEN ALL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH SEVERAL OTHER OPERATION MODELS ARE INDICATING "BELOW" CLIMO READINGS. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 MB TEMPS ARE RUNNING 1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO. ADDITIONALLY...A LOCAL CLIMO QUERY FOR SFC PRESSURES 1018 TO 1020MB WITH 850MB TEMPS 10-12C FOR OCT 12-25 GIVES SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO VALUES FOR LOWS AND NEAR CLIMO FOR HIGHS. SO WITH ALL OF THIS I HAVE TO CHEW ON...I HAVE CONTINUED TO CUT THE GFS GUIDANCE PRETTY GOOD FOR LOWS (SAT-MON) AND REMAINED CLOSE FOR HIGHS. BASICALLY I HAVE 50-55 FOR LOWS AND 78-81 FOR HIGHS. AGAIN...THIS IS THE MIDDLE OF OCT AND WITH CLR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR...THESE VALUES ARE EXTREMELY COMMON. /CME/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POP... JACKSON 55 80 60 83 / 0 10 10 10 MERIDIAN 53 84 59 83 / 0 10 10 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM: 17 LONG TERM: CME ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 351 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... ALTHOUGH SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP SHIELD MOVING AWAY FROM THE ILM AREA...AND WHILE SHOWERS OVER THE AREAS WITHIN THE FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT...HEAVY ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...AND PENDER COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM. FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED OFF THE COAST WILL MORE OR LESS REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY OFF THE COAST BUT SOME IS LIKELY TO SPREAD WEST...ESPECIALLY AS EACH WAVE PASSES. BOUNDARY WILL MOVE A BIT FARTHER OFF THE COAST LATER TUESDAY DECREASING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...FRONT SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST THAT OVERRUNNING CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. LARGE AMOUNTS OF STANDING WATER LEFT OVER FROM THE PAST WEEKENDS RAINFALL AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT FOR NOW THE PLAN IS TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVENING SHIFT CAN EVALUATE THE SITUATION LATER TONIGHT. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... FRONT STAYS STALLED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER TROF AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE. FAVORED SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS AND SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING ALL THE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT ONCE THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE IS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE AREA SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL...10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. && .AVIATION... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH LOW STRATUS...LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AN ISSUE AT ALL TERMINALS. OVERALL...EXPECT THESE IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE... STALLED FRONT SITTING JUST EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS PAIR IS STARTING TO HAVE THE LOOK OF A WEDGE/CAD EVENT THAT WILL NOT GIVE UP QUICKLY. IN LIGHT OF THAT THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD PERSISTENCE AND/OR THE ETA/NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS...RATHER THAN THE GFS WHICH IS TOO EAGER TO BRING THE FRONT BACK ONSHORE...AS USUAL. SEAS RUNNING 6 FT AT 41013...AND 4 FT AT THE ONSLOW BAY BUOY. WILL INITIALIZE MY NC WATERS WITH SCEC FOR 4-5 FT SEAS EXCEPT NEAR SHORE. N-NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 KT RANGE DO NOT EXPECT SEAS TO GET ALL THAT FRISKY. MAIN QUESTION LATER IN THE WEEK HINGES ON THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO. MAIN IMPACT IF THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE EASTERLY SWELL. IN THIS ISSUANCE WILL ADVERTISE SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY FRI-SAT...BUT REMAINING BELOW THRESHOLDS AT THIS TIME. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...JAQ MARINE...RAS nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 409 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... DIFFERENCES PERSIST BETWEEN NAM AND GFS IN SHORT TERM. MOST DIFFERENCES IN NEXT 36 HRS OR SO ARISE OUT OF HANDLING OF 5H CUTOFF/TROF AND ASSOC VORT MAXES. NAM HAS TROF PASSING THRU W/ A NEAR NEUTRAL TILT...WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT THRU WITH A POSITIVE TILT...SUGGESTING MORE SHEARING OF VORTS AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF SURFACE SYSTEMS. CURRENTLY RUC ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SHOW THE 5H CUTOFF/TROF ALREADY HAS A NEUTRAL TILT...SO LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. RESULT IS CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVR WRN AREAS AND GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE E. FORCING ALL BECOMES CONCENTRATED IN THE E THEN NE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW SO ONLY CHC POPS W W/ CAT POPS ONLY ON ERN SHR. CONTINUE TO DIMINISH POPS FROM SW TO NE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS 5H TRF AXIS PASSES TO EAST BY MIDDAY WED. BY WED AFTN HWVR...MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT A LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLC COAST BY WED AFTN...THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR OFFSHORE AND HOW STRONG...AND HOW FAR DOES IT RETROGRADE UNDER RIDGE TO ITS N AND UPR LOW TO ITS S. SINCE WAS ALREADY FAVORED NAM...LEANED TOWARDS ITS STRONGER/CLOSER TO THE COAST VERSION OF THE LOW TRACK...RESULTING IN CHC POPS OVR ERN 1/3 WED AFTN...INTO WED NIGHT OVER FAR NE AS LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND (NAM SEEMS TOO CUTOFF AND SLOW W/ SYSTEM GIVEN OVERALL FLOW SO DID LEAN A BIT TOWARDS GFS FOR SPEED OF MOTION). THIS SHLD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT FOR THU/THU NIGHT (THOUGH CONTINUED N TO NE FLOW SHLD STILL SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS). AS FAR AS TEMPS GO MET GDNC IS OUT TO LUNCH SUGGESTING A HIGH IN RIC OF 58 TOMORROW...BUT FWC/MAV GDNC IS A TAD WARM (74/72 IN RIC TOMORROW) GIVEN ONLY GOT TO 70 SO FAR IN RIC TODAY (BY THE HOURLIES)...AND W/ MORE PRECIP EXPECTED THAN TODAY SHLD BE A TAD COOLER THAN TODAY...SO BELIEVE IT OR NOT A BLEND OF THE THREE GDNC PRODUCED A REASONABLE RESULT...EXCEPT ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE A TWEAKED MET GDNC WAS USED (TOOK OFF A CPL OF DEG INLAND) (SBY LOOKS LIKE ITS TOPPED OUT AT ABOUT 65 OR SO TODAY ADN MET IS THE COOLEST OF THE GDNC). && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE LONG TERM...SO FOLLOWED HPC SUGGESTION TO USE 0Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR XTND. RESULT IS A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN (BOTH SFC AND ALOFT) FROM NW INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TEMPS GENLY WENT W/ SLGTLY COOLER MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN NUMBERS. && .AVIATION... GNRLY MVFR INLAND TO IFR/LIFR ALONG COAST LATE THIS AFTN/ERLY EVENG. CONDS DETERIORATE BY LATE EVENG MAINLY IFR/LIFR AT ALL SITES AS DRIZZLE/ RAIN BECOME MORE WDSPRD AND CIGS LOWER. TUESDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR/MVFR AFTER CIGS LIFT A LITTLE THRU THE MRNG HRS. && .MARINE... LGT TO MDT N/NE FLOW OVERNGT AND TUE W/ FRONTAL BNDRY AND LOW PRES OFFSHORE. WILL CONTINUE W/ SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS ON CSTL WTRS AS WAVES STILL REMAIN 5-7 FT. EXPECT SEAS TO COME DOWN JUST BELOW SCA ON SRN CSTL WTRS TUE (BUT STAY UP N OF PARRAMORE)...THEN INCRSG AGAIN BY WED AS NLY FLOW INCREASES BETWN SFC HIGH IN CANADA AND LOW TO OUR SE WED. SWELLS FROM STRONG AREA OF SUBTROPICAL LOW PRES OFFSHORE WILL THEN KEEP SEAS HIGH ON COAST ALL THE WAY INTO SAT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652 UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ654-656-658 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY. && $$ SHORT//LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION/MARINE...BROWN va