000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210356
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUN 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 12N117W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION ORGANIZED IN BANDS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY 
WITHIN 180 NM IN N SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER.  SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN 
MODERATE E FLOW ALOFT BUT APPROACHING AREA OF DIFFLUENCE AT 
UPPER LEVELS WHICH WOULD PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  SYSTEMS BEING MONITORED 
FOR SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W DRAGGING PLENTY OF CONVECTION FROM 
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MARKED DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING 
CONVECTION.  PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH GOOD UPLIFTING 
MECHANISM AND UPPER LEVEL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS 
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION.  WAVE SHOULD DEPART THIS ENVIRON 
AND ENTER MORE HOSTILE SW SHEAR WITHIN NEXT 36 HRS AND SHOULD 
DIMINISH ITS ACTIVITY.    

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W FROM 3N TO 12N MOVING W 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS. 
SYSTEM TAKING ADVANTAGE OF WEAKER THAN FORECAST UPPER LEVEL WIND 
TO DEVELOP CONVECTION BEFORE ENTERING AREA OF ADVERSE CONDITIONS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W FROM 3N TO 12N MOVING W 12 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION MERGING WITH LOW PRES 
MENTIONED IN SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.  HOSTILE UPPER 
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FORECAST TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ALLOWING 
SYSTEM TO BE POTENTIALLY INTENSIFY INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE.   

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 136W FROM 1N TO 11N MOVING W 10 KT. 
EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS AND HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT PRECLUDES 
ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE TO DEVELOP.

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG...8N83W 7N96W 12N112W 4N140W.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 83W AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 102W AND 108W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM 
10N114W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM 30N140W TO 15N133W HAS 
EFFECTIVELY DRIED OUT AIRMASS N OF 5N W OF 125W.  LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX CENTERED AT 24N140W.  CIRCULATION MOVING 
NW 10 KT.  FURTHER E...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED 
AT 23N113W COVERS AREA N OF 10N FROM 100W TO 130W.  UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW S OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENHANCING 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR 1009 MB LOW PRES.  WEAK CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION AT 11N92W COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH 
AMERICA PRODUCING STRONG DIFFLUENT PATTERN OVER TROPICAL WAVE 
JUST OUT OF PANAMA. 
AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRES CENTER N OF AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 
19N114W WITH STRONG N WINDS PUSHING AGAINST COAST OF CALIFORNIA 
PRODUCING MODERATE TO LARGE N SWELLS MOVING ALONG BAJA 
CALIFORNIA COAST. 

LARGE SWELLS CROSSING EQUATOR INTO E PAC..WHICH WERE CORRECTLY 
FORECAST BY NWW3 AS HIGH AS 14 FT...HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE.  SHIP 
REPORTS WITH SEAS TO 10-12 FT...AND NWW3 GOOD HANDLE ON SOLUTION 
INCREASES CONFIDENCE OF DIMINISHING SEAS NEXT 48 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES