000
FXUS61 KRLX 142125
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
337 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN TONIGHT AND STICKS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARMER TUESDAY. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING E OF POCAHONTAS COUNTY AFTER 20Z. IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW...LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN NW AND INCREASE.

THINKING CLOUDS WILL LOWER IN THE COLDER AIR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME INSIGNIFICANT LIGHT PCPN
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  ALSO INCLUDING SOME REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY FOR AVIATION BUT NOT FOR PUBLIC.

AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKS
GOOD.

HARD TO FIGURE ON THE AMOUNT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS IN THE COLDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.  FORECAST SOUNDING HAVE MARGINAL MOISTURE AROUND 2
TO 3 THSD FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD.  SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA RIGHT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...EXITING BY DAWN MON.  THIS AND WEAK SFC WAVE S
OF THE AREA BRINGS ABOUT SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP S SUN NT AND
IN THE MTNS MON AS WEAK UPSLOPE NW FLOW SETS UP UNDER THE EXITING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

LOW CLOUDS AROUND MON MRNG SHOULD MIX OUT SOMEWHAT MON AFTN AND THEN
DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER LATE MON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD
IN.  THE HIGH SHOULD SET UP A CLEAR CALM NT MON NT WITH GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIVE COOLING.  HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE W
LATE MAY BECOME A HINDRANCE.

HIGH CLOUDS STREAK ACROSS TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO S FLOW
AT THE SFC.  LOOKS LIKE POSSIBLY A BAND OF HIGH AND MID CLOUD MOVE
THROUGH TUE MRNG BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THINS OUT FOR A
TIME SO THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TREND IN TUE SKY COVER.

ADJUSTED LOWS SUN NT DOWN TOWARD THE NEW NUMBERS ALTHOUGH STILL NEAR
THE HIGH END THEREOF.  INV MON WILL ALLOW MIXING UP THRU H8 SO WENT
WITH A BLEND OF THE LOW MET AND HIGH MAV FOR HIGHS...INCREASING N S
GRADIENT ACROSS AREA FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.  WITH A BIT OF DOUBT AS
TO HOW SOON HIGH CLOUDS BECOME A FACTOR IN RADIATIVE COOLING MON
NT...KEPT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE
LATEST NUMBERS.  HIGHS TUE LOOKED LOW IN RELATION TO THE NEW MAV BUT
LEFT AS IS PER ISC FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE SKY COVER
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO GFS THRU WED NIGHT...THEN CLOSER TO ECMWF BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PCPN EARLY WED WITH A WARM FRONT WITH MARKED TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES.

HAVE CODED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT THRU
WED...INCREASING LIKELY POPS AT BOTH SIDES OF THE OH RIVER THRU WED.
THEN...WIDESPREAD LIKELY POPS WERE CODED WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THRU WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PERHAPS...AS
TIME SHRINKS...CATEGORICAL POPS COULD BE INSERTED IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
THRU TUE NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WITH NEARLY 50 KNOTS FLOW AT H850 PER GFS MODEL...TEMPS SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP LIQUID PCPN THRU WED NIGHT. THE COLD AIR RUSHES
IN OVERNIGHT WED...GRADUALLY CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST
ON THURSDAY....MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

PCPN LINGERS ACROSS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...BEFORE
ENDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

USED A MIX OF HPC AND GMOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MODELS ARE BRINGING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE
CODED CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. BUT WILL BE INTERESTING HOW THIS SYSTEM
EVOLVE AS TIME APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN WAKE OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW...LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
NW 18Z-21Z AND CEILINGS LOWERING FROM THE W AND NW DURING THE 21Z
SATURDAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY PERIOD.  THE EXCEPTION IS THAT THE SRN WV
MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW WILL BE BRUSHED BY THE LOWER CEILINGS ALONG THE
WIND SHIFT...SO HAVE CEILINGS LOWERING THERE AT THE START OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.

IN THE COLDER AIR AFTER 22Z HAVE SOME MVFR IN HAZE AND FOG FORMING
AS CEILINGS LOWER.  HAVE SOME VSBY AROUND 2 TO 3 MILES OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN EKN TO BKW 00Z TO 06Z IN LIGHT SNOW AND POSSIBLE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

CEILINGS LIFTING OVER MOUNTAINS 06Z-12Z SUNDAY.  TOUGH CLOUD AND
CEILING FORECAST AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE IN THE
COLDER NW FLOW.  HELD ONTO CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT IN MANY LOCATIONS.
HIGHER CLOUDS AOA 8 THSD FT INCREASING OVER LNP-BKW CORRIDOR AFTER
18Z.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KTB

000
FXUS61 KRLX 141801
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1248 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR
ADVECTS IN TONIGHT AND STICKS AROUND INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARMER TUESDAY. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING E OF POCAHONTAS COUNTY AFTER 20Z. IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW...LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN NW AND INCREASE.

THINKING CLOUDS WILL LOWER IN THE COLDER AIR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME INSIGNIFICANT LIGHT PCPN
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  ALSO INCLUDING SOME REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY FOR AVIATION BUT NOT FOR PUBLIC.

AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKS
GOOD.

HARD TO FIGURE ON THE AMOUNT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS IN THE COLDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.  FORECAST SOUNDING HAVE MARGINAL MOISTURE AROUND 2
TO 3 THSD FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSIST ON SUNDAY AND WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW -10C.  THE MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB IS
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND...BUT THE DEPTH ABOVE THAT
LEVEL IS LACKING...SO HAVE HELD ONTO THE CLOUDS...BUT ELIMINATED
POPS...ALTHOUGH DID HOLD ONTO FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FLURRY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  BASED ON THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES THAT THE MAV IS TOO WARM
SO LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE COOLER FWC/MET NUMBERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BE A LITTLE INTERESTING.  THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
HOPING ALL OVER THE PLACE SINCE ABOUT THURSDAY WITH SOME SORT OF
CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.  WELL THE GFS AND
NAM BOTH HAVE THIS FEATURE SLIDING ACROSS SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT.  BUT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS ERN KY/SW VA...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SRN COAL FIELDS.  BUT WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT.  THE MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT LITTLE WOULD HAPPEN AS THE POPS ARE GENERALLY 30 OR
LESS.  BUT BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE WAVE WENT A LITTLE ABOVE
GUIDANCE IN THE COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.  ONCE THIS WAVE
PASSES...THE NORTHWEST FLOW...COLD ADVECTION PICK UP AND THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

ON MONDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUE BUT DO
WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF
THE DAY...WHICH SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
ERN KY AND THE SRN COAL FIELDS.  WITH THESE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN FELT THE MAV WAS TOO WARM SO AGAIN RAIN WITH
THE MET NUMBERS.

THE COLD ADVECTION ENDS MONDAY NIGHT AND THE THERMAL TROUGH EXITS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CIRRUS.  SO HAVE GONE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
MEX AS RADIATIVE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD.

WITH THE FLOW TURNING SW ON TUESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE
SLIDE TO THE EAST WILL ALL FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S.  IT WILL ALSO BE DRY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT LATEST
MODEL RUNS SEEM TO AGAIN BE INDICATING A SPLIT IN THE MOISTURE AND
LIFT FIELDS WITH THE BEST OVERUNNING AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE BEST MOISTURE STAYING TO THE SOUTH.  SO HAVE
ADJUSTED BY SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE POPS AND KEEPING POPS BELOW
GUIDANCE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.  BUT DID CHANCE THE WEATHER
TYPE TO ALL SHOWERS AS THE AIR SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
RAIN...ALTHOUGH EARLY IN THE NIGHT SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS COULD DROP BELOW FREEZING BEFORE RISING AS THE WINDS
INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERE RECOUPLES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED GMOS GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR DAY 5...WEDNESDAY WHEN A
BLEND OF HPC AND GMOS WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A SFC LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES TO THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARMER AIR...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD FROM THE SOUTH. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT AS THE WARM AIR
PUSHES NORTHEAST...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPS AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT...AS H850 TEMPS FALL BELOW
FREEZING. ON THURSDAY...SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN...AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY NOON...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY LINGERING PCPN COULD CHANGE ONCE AGAIN TO
SNOW...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN WAKE OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW...LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
NW 18Z-21Z AND CEILINGS LOWERING FROM THE W AND NW DURING THE 21Z
SATURDAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY PERIOD.  THE EXCEPTION IS THAT THE SRN WV
MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW WILL BE BRUSHED BY THE LOWER CEILINGS ALONG THE
WIND SHIFT...SO HAVE CEILINGS LOWERING THERE AT THE START OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.

IN THE COLDER AIR AFTER 22Z HAVE SOME MVFR IN HAZE AND FOG FORMING
AS CEILINGS LOWER.  HAVE SOME VSBY AROUND 2 TO 3 MILES OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN EKN TO BKW 00Z TO 06Z IN LIGHT SNOW AND POSSIBLE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

CEILINGS LIFTING OVER MOUNTAINS 06Z-12Z SUNDAY.  TOUGH CLOUD AND
CEILING FORECAST AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE IN THE
COLDER NW FLOW.  HELD ONTO CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT IN MANY LOCATIONS.
HIGHER CLOUDS AOA 8 THSD FT INCREASING OVER LNP-BKW CORRIDOR AFTER
18Z.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KTB

000
FXUS61 KRLX 141600
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1048 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLDER PATTERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER
TUESDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WV AROUND 17Z/18Z.
HAVE WINDS TURNING TO NW AND INCREASING A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY.  ALSO...ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOW...KEEPING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE A BIT COLDER.

THINKING CLOUDS WILL LOWER IN THE COLDER AIR AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT
SOME INSIGNIFICANT LIGHT PCPN LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  ALSO
INCLUDING SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY FOR AVIATION BUT NOT
FOR PUBLIC.

AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKS
GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSIST ON SUNDAY AND WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW -10C.  THE MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB IS
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND...BUT THE DEPTH ABOVE THAT
LEVEL IS LACKING...SO HAVE HELD ONTO THE CLOUDS...BUT ELIMINATED
POPS...ALTHOUGH DID HOLD ONTO FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FLURRY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  BASED ON THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES THAT THE MAV IS TOO WARM
SO LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE COOLER FWC/MET NUMBERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BE A LITTLE INTERESTING.  THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
HOPING ALL OVER THE PLACE SINCE ABOUT THURSDAY WITH SOME SORT OF
CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.  WELL THE GFS AND
NAM BOTH HAVE THIS FEATURE SLIDING ACROSS SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT.  BUT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS ERN KY/SW VA...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SRN COAL FIELDS.  BUT WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT.  THE MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT LITTLE WOULD HAPPEN AS THE POPS ARE GENERALLY 30 OR
LESS.  BUT BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE WAVE WENT A LITTLE ABOVE
GUIDANCE IN THE COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.  ONCE THIS WAVE
PASSES...THE NORTHWEST FLOW...COLD ADVECTION PICK UP AND THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

ON MONDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUE BUT DO
WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF
THE DAY...WHICH SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
ERN KY AND THE SRN COAL FIELDS.  WITH THESE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN FELT THE MAV WAS TOO WARM SO AGAIN RAIN WITH
THE MET NUMBERS.

THE COLD ADVECTION ENDS MONDAY NIGHT AND THE THERMAL TROUGH EXITS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CIRRUS.  SO HAVE GONE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
MEX AS RADIATIVE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD.

WITH THE FLOW TURNING SW ON TUESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE
SLIDE TO THE EAST WILL ALL FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S.  IT WILL ALSO BE DRY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT LATEST
MODEL RUNS SEEM TO AGAIN BE INDICATING A SPLIT IN THE MOISTURE AND
LIFT FIELDS WITH THE BEST OVERUNNING AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE BEST MOISTURE STAYING TO THE SOUTH.  SO HAVE
ADJUSTED BY SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE POPS AND KEEPING POPS BELOW
GUIDANCE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.  BUT DID CHANCE THE WEATHER
TYPE TO ALL SHOWERS AS THE AIR SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
RAIN...ALTHOUGH EARLY IN THE NIGHT SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS COULD DROP BELOW FREEZING BEFORE RISING AS THE WINDS
INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERE RECOUPLES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED GMOS GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR DAY 5...WEDNESDAY WHEN A
BLEND OF HPC AND GMOS WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A SFC LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES TO THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARMER AIR...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD FROM THE SOUTH. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT AS THE WARM AIR
PUSHES NORTHEAST...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPS AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT...AS H850 TEMPS FALL BELOW
FREEZING. ON THURSDAY...SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN...AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY NOON...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY LINGERING PCPN COULD CHANGE ONCE AGAIN TO
SNOW...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY. COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE LOW SHOULD CREATE A STRATUS DECK FOR TONIGHT.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN LOW CEILINGS WITH
RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY

000
FXUS61 KRLX 141013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
505 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLDER
PATTERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LACKING...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
MOVING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH CHANCE
POPS. SOME COLDER AIR FILTERS IN TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH IS
LACKING. WILL KEEP A SMALL UPSLOPE POP IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSIST ON SUNDAY AND WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW -10C.  THE MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB IS
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND...BUT THE DEPTH ABOVE THAT
LEVEL IS LACKING...SO HAVE HELD ONTO THE CLOUDS...BUT ELIMINATED
POPS...ALTHOUGH DID HOLD ONTO FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FLURRY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  BASED ON THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES THAT THE MAV IS TOO WARM
SO LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE COOLER FWC/MET NUMBERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BE A LITTLE INTERESTING.  THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
HOPING ALL OVER THE PLACE SINCE ABOUT THURSDAY WITH SOME SORT OF
CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.  WELL THE GFS AND
NAM BOTH HAVE THIS FEATURE SLIDING ACROSS SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT.  BUT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS ERN KY/SW VA...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SRN COAL FIELDS.  BUT WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT.  THE MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT LITTLE WOULD HAPPEN AS THE POPS ARE GENERALLY 30 OR
LESS.  BUT BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE WAVE WENT A LITTLE ABOVE
GUIDANCE IN THE COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.  ONCE THIS WAVE
PASSES...THE NORTHWEST FLOW...COLD ADVECTION PICK UP AND THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

ON MONDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUE BUT DO
WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF
THE DAY...WHICH SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
ERN KY AND THE SRN COAL FIELDS.  WITH THESE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN FELT THE MAV WAS TOO WARM SO AGAIN RAIN WITH
THE MET NUMBERS.

THE COLD ADVECTION ENDS MONDAY NIGHT AND THE THERMAL TROUGH EXITS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CIRRUS.  SO HAVE GONE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
MEX AS RADIATIVE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD.

WITH THE FLOW TURNING SW ON TUESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE
SLIDE TO THE EAST WILL ALL FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S.  IT WILL ALSO BE DRY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT LATEST
MODEL RUNS SEEM TO AGAIN BE INDICATING A SPLIT IN THE MOISTURE AND
LIFT FIELDS WITH THE BEST OVERUNNING AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE BEST MOISTURE STAYING TO THE SOUTH.  SO HAVE
ADJUSTED BY SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE POPS AND KEEPING POPS BELOW
GUIDANCE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.  BUT DID CHANCE THE WEATHER
TYPE TO ALL SHOWERS AS THE AIR SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
RAIN...ALTHOUGH EARLY IN THE NIGHT SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS COULD DROP BELOW FREEZING BEFORE RISING AS THE WINDS
INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERE RECOUPLES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED GMOS GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR DAY 5...WEDNESDAY WHEN A
BLEND OF HPC AND GMOS WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A SFC LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES TO THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARMER AIR...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD FROM THE SOUTH. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT AS THE WARM AIR
PUSHES NORTHEAST...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPS AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT...AS H850 TEMPS FALL BELOW
FREEZING. ON THURSDAY...SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN...AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY NOON...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY LINGERING PCPN COULD CHANGE ONCE AGAIN TO
SNOW...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY. COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE LOW SHOULD CREATE A STRATUS DECK FOR TONIGHT.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN LOW CEILINGS WITH
RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY

000
FXUS61 KRLX 140937
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
435 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLDER
PATTERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LACKING...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
MOVING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH CHANCE
POPS. SOME COLDER AIR FILTERS IN TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH IS
LACKING. WILL KEEP A SMALL UPSLOPE POP IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSIST ON SUNDAY AND WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW -10C.  THE MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB IS
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND...BUT THE DEPTH ABOVE THAT
LEVEL IS LACKING...SO HAVE HELD ONTO THE CLOUDS...BUT ELIMINATED
POPS...ALTHOUGH DID HOLD ONTO FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FLURRY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  BASED ON THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES THAT THE MAV IS TOO WARM
SO LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE COOLER FWC/MET NUMBERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BE A LITTLE INTERESTING.  THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
HOPING ALL OVER THE PLACE SINCE ABOUT THURSDAY WITH SOME SORT OF
CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.  WELL THE GFS AND
NAM BOTH HAVE THIS FEATURE SLIDING ACROSS SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT.  BUT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS ERN KY/SW VA...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SRN COAL FIELDS.  BUT WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT.  THE MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT LITTLE WOULD HAPPEN AS THE POPS ARE GENERALLY 30 OR
LESS.  BUT BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE WAVE WENT A LITTLE ABOVE
GUIDANCE IN THE COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.  ONCE THIS WAVE
PASSES...THE NORTHWEST FLOW...COLD ADVECTION PICK UP AND THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

ON MONDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUE BUT DO
WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF
THE DAY...WHICH SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
ERN KY AND THE SRN COAL FIELDS.  WITH THESE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN FELT THE MAV WAS TOO WARM SO AGAIN RAIN WITH
THE MET NUMBERS.

THE COLD ADVECTION ENDS MONDAY NIGHT AND THE THERMAL TROUGH EXITS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CIRRUS.  SO HAVE GONE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
MEX AS RADIATIVE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD.

WITH THE FLOW TURNING SW ON TUESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE
SLIDE TO THE EAST WILL ALL FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S.  IT WILL ALSO BE DRY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT LATEST
MODEL RUNS SEEM TO AGAIN BE INDICATING A SPLIT IN THE MOISTURE AND
LIFT FIELDS WITH THE BEST OVERUNNING AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE BEST MOISTURE STAYING TO THE SOUTH.  SO HAVE
ADJUSTED BY SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE POPS AND KEEPING POPS BELOW
GUIDANCE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.  BUT DID CHANCE THE WEATHER
TYPE TO ALL SHOWERS AS THE AIR SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
RAIN...ALTHOUGH EARLY IN THE NIGHT SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS COULD DROP BELOW FREEZING BEFORE RISING AS THE WINDS
INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERE RECOUPLES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED GMOS GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR DAY 5...WEDNESDAY WHEN A
BLEND OF HPC AND GMOS WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A SFC LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES TO THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARMER AIR...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD FROM THE SOUTH. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT AS THE WARM AIR
PUSHES NORTHEAST...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPS AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT...AS H850 TEMPS FALL BELOW
FREEZING. ON THURSDAY...SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN...AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY NOON...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY LINGERING PCPN COULD CHANGE ONCE AGAIN TO
SNOW...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY. COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE LOW SHOULD CREATE A STRATUS DECK FOR TONIGHT.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN LOW CEILINGS WITH
RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY

000
FXUS61 KRLX 140523
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1220 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. A COLDER PATTERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SPREAD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. AWAITING THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
INTO WEST VIRGINIA AFTER DAWN...WHEN THE MOISTURE WILL LOWER AND
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES. RIPPLES IN THE 700HPA FLOW
SEEMS TO BE CAUSING SOME LIFT OFF TO THE WSW WITH WEAK RETURNS ON
REGIONAL RADAR...BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEPTH...AS WELL AS THE HEIGHT ABOVE GROUND OF THE MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES WERE IN LINE AND TWEAKED THE DIURNAL TREND WITH THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRATOCU CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING WITH DAYTIME MIXING. OTHERWISE REST OF TODAY
JUST A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH ON FAST
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL SPREAD THICKER CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY BUT MAIN
PRECIP AREA WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WHERE GREATER MOISTURE WILL
BE LOCATED. SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN WV
MOUNTAINS. H8 TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C BY 00Z SUNDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA SO ANY LIQUID PRECIP WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLDER PATTERN BUT NO BIG STORMS THIS PERIOD.  GLAD WE WENT WITH
THE COLDER 850 TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM SOLUTION YESTERDAY. THE 12Z
GFS TODAY IS MUCH COLDER THAN ITS SOLUTION 24 HOURS AGO FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...OF VARYING THICKNESS...LINGERS THROUGH
MONDAY...AS THE THERMAL TROF LINGERS HERE. YET...MOST OF THE TIME
THE MOISTURE IS BELOW THE BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH...SO WILL NOT GET
OVERDONE ON THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

THE 12Z MODELS AGREE WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...DRIVING MORE SUPPORT TO OUR SOUTH.  STILL THINK SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ENOUGH INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT.

HAVE ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DRYING UP ON MONDAY.  SO
TEMPERATURES STILL COLD MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED GMOS GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR DAY 5...WEDNESDAY WHEN A
BLEND OF HPC AND GMOS WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A SFC LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES TO THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARMER AIR...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD FROM THE SOUTH. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT AS THE WARM AIR
PUSHES NORTHEAST...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPS AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT...AS H850 TEMPS FALL BELOW
FREEZING. ON THURSDAY...SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN...AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY NOON...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY LINGERING PCPN COULD CHANGE ONCE AGAIN TO
SNOW...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY. COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE LOW SHOULD CREATE A STRATUS DECK FOR TONIGHT.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN LOW CEILINGS WITH
RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JKF/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JKF/26
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY

000
FXUS61 KRLX 140237
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
937 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. A COLDER PATTERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SPREAD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. AWAITING THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
INTO WEST VIRGINIA AFTER DAWN...WHEN THE MOISTURE WILL LOWER AND
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES. RIPPLES IN THE 700HPA FLOW
SEEMS TO BE CAUSING SOME LIFT OFF TO THE WSW WITH WEAK RETURNS ON
REGIONAL RADAR...BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEPTH...AS WELL AS THE HEIGHT ABOVE GROUND OF THE MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES WERE IN LINE AND TWEAKED THE DIURNAL TREND WITH THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRATOCU CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING WITH DAYTIME MIXING. OTHERWISE REST OF TODAY
JUST A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH ON FAST
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL SPREAD THICKER CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY BUT MAIN
PRECIP AREA WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WHERE GREATER MOISTURE WILL
BE LOCATED. SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN WV
MOUNTAINS. H8 TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C BY 00Z SUNDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA SO ANY LIQUID PRECIP WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLDER PATTERN BUT NO BIG STORMS THIS PERIOD.  GLAD WE WENT WITH
THE COLDER 850 TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM SOLUTION YESTERDAY. THE 12Z
GFS TODAY IS MUCH COLDER THAN ITS SOLUTION 24 HOURS AGO FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...OF VARYING THICKNESS...LINGERS THROUGH
MONDAY...AS THE THERMAL TROF LINGERS HERE. YET...MOST OF THE TIME
THE MOISTURE IS BELOW THE BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH...SO WILL NOT GET
OVERDONE ON THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

THE 12Z MODELS AGREE WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...DRIVING MORE SUPPORT TO OUR SOUTH.  STILL THINK SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ENOUGH INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT.

HAVE ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DRYING UP ON MONDAY.  SO
TEMPERATURES STILL COLD MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED GMOS GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR DAY 5...WEDNESDAY WHEN A
BLEND OF HPC AND GMOS WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A SFC LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES TO THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARMER AIR...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD FROM THE SOUTH. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT AS THE WARM AIR
PUSHES NORTHEAST...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPS AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT...AS H850 TEMPS FALL BELOW
FREEZING. ON THURSDAY...SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN...AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY NOON...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY LINGERING PCPN COULD CHANGE ONCE AGAIN TO
SNOW...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN SKY WILL LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY TO 4-5KFT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN LOW CEILINGS WITH
RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JKF/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JKF/26
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26

000
FXUS61 KRLX 140023
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
723 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. A COLDER PATTERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRATOCU CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. OTHERWISE REST OF TODAY JUST A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH ON FAST WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL SPREAD THICKER CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY BUT MAIN
PRECIP AREA WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WHERE GREATER MOISTURE WILL
BE LOCATED. SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN WV
MOUNTAINS. H8 TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C BY 00Z SUNDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA SO ANY LIQUID PRECIP WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLDER PATTERN BUT NO BIG STORMS THIS PERIOD.  GLAD WE WENT WITH
THE COLDER 850 TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM SOLUTION YESTERDAY. THE 12Z
GFS TODAY IS MUCH COLDER THAN ITS SOLUTION 24 HOURS AGO FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...OF VARYING THICKNESS...LINGERS THROUGH
MONDAY...AS THE THERMAL TROF LINGERS HERE. YET...MOST OF THE TIME
THE MOISTURE IS BELOW THE BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH...SO WILL NOT GET
OVERDONE ON THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

THE 12Z MODELS AGREE WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...DRIVING MORE SUPPORT TO OUR SOUTH.  STILL THINK SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ENOUGH INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT.

HAVE ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DRYING UP ON MONDAY.  SO
TEMPERATURES STILL COLD MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED GMOS GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR DAY 5...WEDNESDAY WHEN A
BLEND OF HPC AND GMOS WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A SFC LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES TO THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARMER AIR...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD FROM THE SOUTH. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT AS THE WARM AIR
PUSHES NORTHEAST...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPS AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT...AS H850 TEMPS FALL BELOW
FREEZING. ON THURSDAY...SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN...AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY NOON...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY LINGERING PCPN COULD CHANGE ONCE AGAIN TO
SNOW...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN SKY WILL LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY TO 4-5KFT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN LOW CEILINGS WITH
RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JKF/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JKF
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26

000
FXUS61 KRLX 132120
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
415 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. A COLDER PATTERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRATOCU CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. OTHERWISE REST OF TODAY JUST A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH ON FAST WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL SPREAD THICKER CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY BUT MAIN
PRECIP AREA WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WHERE GREATER MOISTURE WILL
BE LOCATED. SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN WV
MOUNTAINS. H8 TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C BY 00Z SUNDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA SO ANY LIQUID PRECIP WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLDER PATTERN BUT NO BIG STORMS THIS PERIOD.  GLAD WE WENT WITH
THE COLDER 850 TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM SOLUTION YESTERDAY. THE 12Z
GFS TODAY IS MUCH COLDER THAN ITS SOLUTION 24 HOURS AGO FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...OF VARYING THICKNESS...LINGERS THROUGH
MONDAY...AS THE THERMAL TROF LINGERS HERE. YET...MOST OF THE TIME
THE MOISTURE IS BELOW THE BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH...SO WILL NOT GET
OVERDONE ON THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

THE 12Z MODELS AGREE WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...DRIVING MORE SUPPORT TO OUR SOUTH.  STILL THINK SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ENOUGH INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT.

HAVE ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DRYING UP ON MONDAY.  SO
TEMPERATURES STILL COLD MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED GMOS GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR DAY 5...WEDNESDAY WHEN A
BLEND OF HPC AND GMOS WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A SFC LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES TO THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARMER AIR...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD FROM THE SOUTH. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT AS THE WARM AIR
PUSHES NORTHEAST...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPS AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT...AS H850 TEMPS FALL BELOW
FREEZING. ON THURSDAY...SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN...AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY NOON...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY LINGERING PCPN COULD CHANGE ONCE AGAIN TO
SNOW...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
CEILINGS FALL TO AROUND 4K FT ON SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN LOW CEILINGS WITH
RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JKF/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JKF
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JKF

000
FXUS61 KRLX 131804
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
104 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRATOCU CLOUDS ACROSS NORTEHRN SECTIONS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. OTHERWISE REST OF TODAY JUST A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH ON FAST WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL SPREAD THICKER CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY BUT MAIN
PRECIP AREA WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WHERE GREATER MOISTURE WILL
BE LOCATED. SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN WV
MOUNTAINS. H8 TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C BY 00Z SUNDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA SO ANY LIQUID PRECIP WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS BOTH SHOW A SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND
ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HOWEVER...IS WERE THE SIMILARITIES END.
GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH BOTH SYSTEMS. MANY OTHER
DIFFERENCES ABOUND DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE WILL RUN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODELS FOR NOW...AND NOT GO
WITH TOO MUCH DETAIL. WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING SYSTEMS RATHER WEAK
AND DISORGANIZED...WILL DECREASE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC THINKING FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY MONDAY NIGHT.  THE HIGH
SHOULD THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN END FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECT ALL LOWLAND COUNTIES TO BE DRY BY SUNRISE
MONDAY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SEEING DRY WEATHER LATE
MONDAY MORNING.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPS
AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW REGION-WIDE AS THESE
TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A WINTRY MIXTURE
PRECIPITATION IS THEN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.  HOWEVER...MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON COOP MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. CEILINGS
FALL TO AROUND 4K FT ON SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE AFETRNOON.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN LOW CEILINGS WITH
RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...JKF
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JKF

000
FXUS61 KRLX 131042
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
542 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM
FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION
TODAY AND HANGS AROUND TONIGHT.  THIS MORNING SEEING A LITTLE PATCH
OF MOISTURE SLIDING THROUGH...WHICH IS PRODUCING A MID DECK OF
CLOUDS ...WHICH IS RESULTING IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FCST.  BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE LOWLANDS BY
9Z TO 10Z...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING BEFORE
SUNRISE.  ONCE THESE CLOUDS EXIT...SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CLOUDS BY
MID MORNING...EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE ACROSS KY AND THE
SRN COAL FIELDS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR DAYTIME HEATING.  BASED ON THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
HAVE LOWERED THE FCST HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  GUIDANCE WAS
FAIRLY CLOSELY CLUSTERED SO DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE MAV.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BACKS AROUND TO THE SW.  BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING IS SLOWER IN
THIS MODEL RUN THAN PREVIOUS SO HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF POPS UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SUPPRESSED THEM TO THE EXTREME SOUTH.
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT BELOW 700 MB. SO WHILE
SOME LIGHT PCPN COULD DEVELOP...FALLING FROM 10000 FEET WOULD LIMIT
THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.  BUT WITH THE CLOUDS COMING
IN...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR
EKN AND CKB WHERE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EARLY COULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS BOTH SHOW A SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND
ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HOWEVER...IS WERE THE SIMILARITIES END.
GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH BOTH SYSTEMS. MANY OTHER
DIFFERENCES ABOUND DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE WILL RUN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODELS FOR NOW...AND NOT GO
WITH TOO MUCH DETAIL. WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING SYSTEMS RATHER WEAK
AND DISORGANIZED...WILL DECREASE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC THINKING FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY MONDAY NIGHT.  THE HIGH
SHOULD THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN END FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECT ALL LOWLAND COUNTIES TO BE DRY BY SUNRISE
MONDAY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SEEING DRY WEATHER LATE
MONDAY MORNING.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPS
AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW REGION-WIDE AS THESE
TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A WINTRY MIXTURE
PRECIPITATION IS THEN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.  HOWEVER...MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON COOP MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY QUIET PERIOD WEATHER WISE CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO A PERIOD OF VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AND NOW THE WINDS ARE CALMING. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT THE GOOD
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
TIME HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10K FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS WHERE CEILINGS COULD BE
LOWER BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z SATURDAY/...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM LEAVES
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ESS

000
FXUS61 KRLX 130844
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
331 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM
FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION
TODAY AND HANGS AROUND TONIGHT.  THIS MORNING SEEING A LITTLE PATCH
OF MOISTURE SLIDING THROUGH...WHICH IS PRODUCING A MID DECK OF
CLOUDS ...WHICH IS RESULTING IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FCST.  BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE LOWLANDS BY
9Z TO 10Z...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING BEFORE
SUNRISE.  ONCE THESE CLOUDS EXIT...SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CLOUDS BY
MID MORNING...EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE ACROSS KY AND THE
SRN COAL FIELDS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR DAYTIME HEATING.  BASED ON THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
HAVE LOWERED THE FCST HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  GUIDANCE WAS
FAIRLY CLOSELY CLUSTERED SO DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE MAV.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BACKS AROUND TO THE SW.  BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING IS SLOWER IN
THIS MODEL RUN THAN PREVIOUS SO HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF POPS UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SUPPRESSED THEM TO THE EXTREME SOUTH.
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT BELOW 700 MB. SO WHILE
SOME LIGHT PCPN COULD DEVELOP...FALLING FROM 10000 FEET WOULD LIMIT
THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.  BUT WITH THE CLOUDS COMING
IN...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR
EKN AND CKB WHERE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EARLY COULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS BOTH SHOW A SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND
ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HOWEVER...IS WERE THE SIMILARITIES END.
GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH BOTH SYSTEMS. MANY OTHER
DIFFERENCES ABOUND DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE WILL RUN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODELS FOR NOW...AND NOT GO
WITH TOO MUCH DETAIL. WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING SYSTEMS RATHER WEAK
AND DISORGANIZED...WILL DECREASE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC THINKING FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY MONDAY NIGHT.  THE HIGH
SHOULD THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN END FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECT ALL LOWLAND COUNTIES TO BE DRY BY SUNRISE
MONDAY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SEEING DRY WEATHER LATE
MONDAY MORNING.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPS
AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW REGION-WIDE AS THESE
TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A WINTRY MIXTURE
PRECIPITATION IS THEN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.  HOWEVER...MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON COOP MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS STREAKING ACROSS THE REGION AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME AND SHOULD
TAKE A FEW HOURS TO PASS. THIS IS LEADING TO SOME BROKEN MID
DECK...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN 5000 FT AND ABOVE.

ONCE THIS MID DECK IS PAST...THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR UNTIL SOME HIGH
CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EJECTING OUT OF THE
SWRN US. BUT AGAIN...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z SATURDAY/...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM LEAVES
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ESS

000
FXUS61 KRLX 130626
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL BUT MAINLY DRY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE WEST WHICH
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES OVER NIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN A SCATTERED DECK. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
DECOUPLED...AND THE WINDS HAVE CALMED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. GAVE THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SOME
TLC...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS IN
CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS DIE DOWN AS WELL ALONG WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING. WILL CAN THE WIND ADVISORY AND DOWNGRADE THE WARNING
TO AN ADVISORY AND PROBABLY END THAT AROUND 00Z. CLEAR SKIES AND
WINDS DIMINISHING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING...AT
LEAST IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. WENT A TAD COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES COOLER NORTH WITH
85H TEMPS STILL REMAINING BETWEEN -5 TO -8. WARMER SOUTH.
GENERALLY BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH A TREND TOWARDS THE WARM SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE
THICKENING CLOUDS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR RISE
SLOWLY TOWARD DAWN. THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE POPS WAS SLOWED
LEAVING POPS AOB 14 PERCENT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SYSTEM ON SATURDAY STILL APPEARS FRAGMENTED.  NORTHERN BRANCH HAS
THE STRONGER UPPER AIR SUPPORT...BUT MORE MOISTURE WELL S...OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES.  CONFIDENCE INCREASED ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS OVER
SRN WV SATURDAY MORNING...BUT NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE HIGHER POPS
FURTHER N FOR SATURDAY.  SO LEFT CHANCE POPS THERE.

SATURDAY...LIKELY POPS SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS SHIFTING
EAST LATER IN THE DAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SHOWERY LATER IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
CHANGING RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LOWLANDS. A SNOW ACCUMULATION
AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

SUNDAY...THERE WAS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE MODELS IN THE TIMING OF
THE COLD AIR RELAXING. ACCORDINGLY THE GFS SEEMED TO ERODE THE COLD
AIR TOO QUICKLY.  THE FORECASTED MAX TEMPERATURE IS STILL BELOW THE
GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC THINKING FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY MONDAY NIGHT.  THE HIGH
SHOULD THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN END FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECT ALL LOWLAND COUNTIES TO BE DRY BY SUNRISE
MONDAY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SEEING DRY WEATHER LATE
MONDAY MORNING.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPS
AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW REGION-WIDE AS THESE
TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A WINTRY MIXTURE
PRECIPITATION IS THEN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.  HOWEVER...MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON COOP MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS STREAKING ACROSS THE REGION AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME AND SHOULD
TAKE A FEW HOURS TO PASS. THIS IS LEADING TO SOME BROKEN MID
DECK...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN 5000 FT AND ABOVE.

ONCE THIS MID DECK IS PAST...THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR UNTIL SOME HIGH
CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EJECTING OUT OF THE
SWRN US. BUT AGAIN...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JSH/JS/TJT
NEAR TERM...26/JS
SHORT TERM...KTB/TJT
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ESS

000
FXUS61 KRLX 130250
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
950 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL BUT MAINLY DRY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE WEST WHICH
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES OVER NIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN A SCATTERED DECK. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
DECOUPLED...AND THE WINDS HAVE CALMED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. GAVE THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SOME
TLC...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS IN
CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS DIE DOWN AS WELL ALONG WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING. WILL CAN THE WIND ADVISORY AND DOWNGRADE THE WARNING
TO AN ADVISORY AND PROBABLY END THAT AROUND 00Z. CLEAR SKIES AND
WINDS DIMINISHING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING...AT
LEAST IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. WENT A TAD COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES COOLER NORTH WITH
85H TEMPS STILL REMAINING BETWEEN -5 TO -8. WARMER SOUTH.
GENERALLY BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH A TREND TOWARDS THE WARM SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE
THICKENING CLOUDS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR RISE
SLOWLY TOWARD DAWN. THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE POPS WAS SLOWED
LEAVING POPS AOB 14 PERCENT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SYSTEM ON SATURDAY STILL APPEARS FRAGMENTED.  NORTHERN BRANCH HAS
THE STRONGER UPPER AIR SUPPORT...BUT MORE MOISTURE WELL S...OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES.  CONFIDENCE INCREASED ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS OVER
SRN WV SATURDAY MORNING...BUT NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE HIGHER POPS
FURTHER N FOR SATURDAY.  SO LEFT CHANCE POPS THERE.

SATURDAY...LIKELY POPS SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS SHIFTING
EAST LATER IN THE DAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SHOWERY LATER IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
CHANGING RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LOWLANDS. A SNOW ACCUMULATION
AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

SUNDAY...THERE WAS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE MODELS IN THE TIMING OF
THE COLD AIR RELAXING. ACCORDINGLY THE GFS SEEMED TO ERODE THE COLD
AIR TOO QUICKLY.  THE FORECASTED MAX TEMPERATURE IS STILL BELOW THE
GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC THINKING FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY MONDAY NIGHT.  THE HIGH
SHOULD THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN END FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECT ALL LOWLAND COUNTIES TO BE DRY BY SUNRISE
MONDAY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SEEING DRY WEATHER LATE
MONDAY MORNING.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPS
AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW REGION-WIDE AS THESE
TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A WINTRY MIXTURE
PRECIPITATION IS THEN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.  HOWEVER...MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON COOP MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY WITH CIRRUS
EXPECTED LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JSH/JS/TJT
NEAR TERM...26/JS
SHORT TERM...KTB/TJT
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26

000
FXUS61 KRLX 122333
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
633 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL BUT MAINLY DRY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS DIE DOWN AS WELL ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WILL CAN
THE WIND ADVISORY AND DOWNGRADE THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY AND
PROBABLY END THAT AROUND 00Z.  CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING...AT LEAST IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS. WENT A TAD COOLER THAN GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES COOLER NORTH WITH
85H TEMPS STILL REMAINING BETWEEN -5 TO -8. WARMER SOUTH.
GENERALLY BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH A TREND TOWARDS THE WARM SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE
THICKENING CLOUDS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR RISE
SLOWLY TOWARD DAWN. THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE POPS WAS SLOWED
LEAVING POPS AOB 14 PERCENT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SYSTEM ON SATURDAY STILL APPEARS FRAGMENTED.  NORTHERN BRANCH HAS
THE STRONGER UPPER AIR SUPPORT...BUT MORE MOISTURE WELL S...OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES.  CONFIDENCE INCREASED ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS OVER
SRN WV SATURDAY MORNING...BUT NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE HIGHER POPS
FURTHER N FOR SATURDAY.  SO LEFT CHANCE POPS THERE.

SATURDAY...LIKELY POPS SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS SHIFTING
EAST LATER IN THE DAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SHOWERY LATER IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
CHANGING RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LOWLANDS. A SNOW ACCUMULATION
AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

SUNDAY...THERE WAS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE MODELS IN THE TIMING OF
THE COLD AIR RELAXING. ACCORDINGLY THE GFS SEEMED TO ERODE THE COLD
AIR TOO QUICKLY.  THE FORECASTED MAX TEMPERATURE IS STILL BELOW THE
GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC THINKING FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY MONDAY NIGHT.  THE HIGH
SHOULD THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN END FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECT ALL LOWLAND COUNTIES TO BE DRY BY SUNRISE
MONDAY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SEEING DRY WEATHER LATE
MONDAY MORNING.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPS
AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW REGION-WIDE AS THESE
TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A WINTRY MIXTURE
PRECIPITATION IS THEN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.  HOWEVER...MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON COOP MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY WITH CIRRUS
EXPECTED LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JSH/JS/TJT
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...KTB/TJT
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26

000
FXUS61 KRLX 122138
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
211 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL BUT MAINLY DRY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS DIE DOWN AS WELL ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WILL CAN
THE WIND ADVISORY AND DOWNGRADE THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY AND
PROBABLY END THAT AROUND 00Z.  CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING...AT LEAST IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS. WENT A TAD COOLER THAN GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES COOLER NORTH WITH
85H TEMPS STILL REMAINING BETWEEN -5 TO -8. WARMER SOUTH.
GENERALLY BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH A TREND TOWARDS THE WARM SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE
THICKENING CLOUDS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR RISE
SLOWLY TOWARD DAWN. THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE POPS WAS SLOWED
LEAVING POPS AOB 14 PERCENT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SYSTEM ON SATURDAY STILL APPEARS FRAGMENTED.  NORTHERN BRANCH HAS
THE STRONGER UPPER AIR SUPPORT...BUT MORE MOISTURE WELL S...OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES.  CONFIDENCE INCREASED ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS OVER
SRN WV SATURDAY MORNING...BUT NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE HIGHER POPS
FURTHER N FOR SATURDAY.  SO LEFT CHANCE POPS THERE.

SATURDAY...LIKELY POPS SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS SHIFTING
EAST LATER IN THE DAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SHOWERY LATER IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
CHANGING RAINSHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LOWLANDS. A SNOW ACCUMULATION
AROUND AN INCH SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

SUNDAY...THERE WAS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE MODELS IN THE TIMING OF
THE COLD AIR RELAXING. ACCORDINGLY THE GFS SEEMED TO ERODE THE COLD
AIR TOO QUICKLY.  THE FORECASTED MAX TEMPERATURE IS STILL BELOW THE
GFS MOS GUIDANCE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC THINKING FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY MONDAY NIGHT.  THE HIGH
SHOULD THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN END FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECT ALL LOWLAND COUNTIES TO BE DRY BY SUNRISE
MONDAY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SEEING DRY WEATHER LATE
MONDAY MORNING.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPS
AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW REGION-WIDE AS THESE
TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A WINTRY MIXTURE
PRECIPITATION IS THEN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.  HOWEVER...MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON COOP MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KTS...AND OVER 40 KTS ON
RIDGETOPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS WORKING IN TOWARDS DAWN ON
FRIDAY.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-026>032-035>040.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JSH/JS/TJT
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...KTB/TJT
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JS

000
FXUS61 KRLX 121826
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL BUT MAINLY DRY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED CURRENT FORECAST FOR CLOUDS AND WINDS...AS CLOUDS CLEARING
QUICKER AND ADJUSTED WINDS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER ZONES...WITH
GRADIENT LESSENING THERE.  WILL ALLOW WIND ADV TO EXPIRE ACROSS
SOUTHERN TIER ZONES. WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND ADV/WRN GOING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS GRADIENT STILL STRONG THERE.
REST OF FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
AWAY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE
SYSTEM. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. HOWEVER...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RANDOLPH
AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES...THEY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS LATE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE
ACTUALLY BEEN EXTENDED TIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR THESE TWO
COUNTIES...THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WIND ADVISORY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATER TODAY...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DECREASE ENOUGH OVER THE FAR SOUTH TO EXPIRE THE
ADVISORY AT NOON...BUT THE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO 5 PM FURTHER
NORTH.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY AS THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT WITH THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY. ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR AT BEST.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL DO A MINOR RECOVERY TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH
WITH COLD ADVECTION GOING ON. GOING ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
COLD TEMPERATURES. AGAIN GOING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE FRIDAY. THOUGH THERE WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING IN A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE INCREASED AMOUNT OF SUN
AND DECREASED WIND SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES TO EASILY REACH
GUIDANCE VALUES...AND I ACTUALLY WENT A TAD ABOVE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SPREAD WITH A CALIFORNIA CLIPPER OF
SORTS /IN THAT IT IS A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF UPPER TROUGH
IN WEST/...THAT MOVES INTO OUR VICINITY SATURDAY. GFS IS DEEPER BUT
FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE MODELS WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...NAM IS
FARTHEST NORTH AND SLOWER...BY TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. GFS WAS THE OUTLIER...BUT LATEST UKMET/GEM/ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS GFS DIRECTION. WITH FAIR AMOUNT BIT OF
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS...I ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS FOR
THURSDAY...WITH RELATIVE MAXES FAR SOUTH CLOSER TO MEAN TRACK OF
SURFACE LOW EARLY...AND IN NORTHWEST ZONES LATER CLOSER TO WHERE THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSES. ALSO KEPT CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ON
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...FOR SOME LIMITED UPSLOPE POTENTIAL SATURDAY
NIGHT. 850/925MB TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE TIME SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC THINKING FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY MONDAY NIGHT.  THE HIGH
SHOULD THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN END FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECT ALL LOWLAND COUNTIES TO BE DRY BY SUNRISE
MONDAY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SEEING DRY WEATHER LATE
MONDAY MORNING.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPS
AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW REGION-WIDE AS THESE
TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A WINTRY MIXTURE
PRECIPITATION IS THEN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.  HOWEVER...MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON COOP MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KTS...AND OVER 40 KTS ON
RIDGETOPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS WORKING IN TOWARDS DAWN ON
FRIDAY.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-026>032-035>040.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JSH/JS/TJT
NEAR TERM...JS/JMV
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JS

000
FXUS61 KRLX 121737
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1237 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGEST IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL BUT MAINLY DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED CURRENT FORECAST FOR CLOUDS AND WINDS...AS CLOUDS CLEARING
QUICKER AND ADJUSTED WINDS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER ZONES...WITH
GRADIENT LESSENING THERE.  WILL ALLOW WIND ADV TO EXPIRE ACROSS
SOUTHERN TIER ZONES. WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND ADV/WRN GOING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS GRADIENT STILL STRONG THERE.
REST OF FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
AWAY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE
SYSTEM. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. HOWEVER...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RANDOLPH
AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES...THEY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS LATE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE
ACTUALLY BEEN EXTENDED TIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR THESE TWO
COUNTIES...THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WIND ADVISORY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATER TODAY...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DECREASE ENOUGH OVER THE FAR SOUTH TO EXPIRE THE
ADVISORY AT NOON...BUT THE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO 5 PM FURTHER
NORTH.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY AS THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT WITH THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY. ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR AT BEST.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL DO A MINOR RECOVERY TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH
WITH COLD ADVECTION GOING ON. GOING ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
COLD TEMPERATURES. AGAIN GOING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE FRIDAY. THOUGH THERE WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING IN A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE INCREASED AMOUNT OF SUN
AND DECREASED WIND SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES TO EASILY REACH
GUIDANCE VALUES...AND I ACTUALLY WENT A TAD ABOVE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SPREAD WITH A CALIFORNIA CLIPPER OF
SORTS /IN THAT IT IS A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF UPPER TROUGH
IN WEST/...THAT MOVES INTO OUR VICINITY SATURDAY. GFS IS DEEPER BUT
FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE MODELS WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...NAM IS
FARTHEST NORTH AND SLOWER...BY TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. GFS WAS THE OUTLIER...BUT LATEST UKMET/GEM/ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS GFS DIRECTION. WITH FAIR AMOUNT BIT OF
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS...I ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS FOR
THURSDAY...WITH RELATIVE MAXES FAR SOUTH CLOSER TO MEAN TRACK OF
SURFACE LOW EARLY...AND IN NORTHWEST ZONES LATER CLOSER TO WHERE THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSES. ALSO KEPT CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ON
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...FOR SOME LIMITED UPSLOPE POTENTIAL SATURDAY
NIGHT. 850/925MB TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE TIME SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...BLENDED HPC/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR
A FRESH FORECAST DAY 3 NIGHT THRU DAY 7.

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST
BRINGING WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE TIMING OF PCPN AND TEMPERATURE
FIELD WITH NAM AND GFS HAVING SIMILAR H850 FREEZING LINE REACHING OH
RIVER...THE SREF IS COLDER WITH H850 MINUS 5-6C...AND THE
SLOWER/WARMER ECMWF WITH A WAVY FREEZING LINE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CWA. LEANED TO NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS...FOR RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW SAT NIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CWA...AND ALL
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

GFS BRING ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE SUN NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
SHALLOW FOR JUST LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX THRU MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

GFS WITH FEED BACK ISSUES ON TUE AND WARM ADVECTION PCPN WERE
DISCARDED. THEREFORE...WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST OVER OH VALLEY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON AND TUE. THEREFORE...BROUGHT SOME
CLEARING SPREADING WEST TO EAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
WED...BRINGING BACK CLOUDS AND MORE CHANCES FOR PCPN.

LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON AS THEY LOOK TO HIGH. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS. NO SIG CHANGES MADE TO LOWS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE GMOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AND SKIES FOR DAY
4-7...IN THE 40S DAYTIME...AND BELOW FREEZING FOR LOWS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KTS...AND OVER 40 KTS ON
RIDGETOPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS WORKING IN TOWARDS DAWN ON
FRIDAY.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-026>032-035>040.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/JS/JMV
NEAR TERM...JS/JMV
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS

000
FXUS61 KRLX 121557
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1057 AM EST THU FEB 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGEST IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL BUT MAINLY DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED CURRENT FORECAST FOR CLOUDS AND WINDS...AS CLOUDS CLEARING
QUICKER AND ADJUSTED WINDS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER ZONES...WITH
GRADIENT LESSENING THERE.  WILL ALLOW WIND ADV TO EXPIRE ACROSS
SOUTHERN TIER ZONES. WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND ADV/WRN GOING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS GRADIENT STILL STRONG THERE.
REST OF FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
AWAY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE
SYSTEM. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. HOWEVER...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RANDOLPH
AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES...THEY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS LATE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE
ACTUALLY BEEN EXTENDED TIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR THESE TWO
COUNTIES...THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WIND ADVISORY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATER TODAY...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DECREASE ENOUGH OVER THE FAR SOUTH TO EXPIRE THE
ADVISORY AT NOON...BUT THE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO 5 PM FURTHER
NORTH.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY AS THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT WITH THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY. ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR AT BEST.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL DO A MINOR RECOVERY TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH
WITH COLD ADVECTION GOING ON. GOING ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
COLD TEMPERATURES. AGAIN GOING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE FRIDAY. THOUGH THERE WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING IN A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE INCREASED AMOUNT OF SUN
AND DECREASED WIND SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES TO EASILY REACH
GUIDANCE VALUES...AND I ACTUALLY WENT A TAD ABOVE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SPREAD WITH A CALIFORNIA CLIPPER OF
SORTS /IN THAT IT IS A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF UPPER TROUGH
IN WEST/...THAT MOVES INTO OUR VICINITY SATURDAY. GFS IS DEEPER BUT
FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE MODELS WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...NAM IS
FARTHEST NORTH AND SLOWER...BY TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. GFS WAS THE OUTLIER...BUT LATEST UKMET/GEM/ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS GFS DIRECTION. WITH FAIR AMOUNT BIT OF
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS...I ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS FOR
THURSDAY...WITH RELATIVE MAXES FAR SOUTH CLOSER TO MEAN TRACK OF
SURFACE LOW EARLY...AND IN NORTHWEST ZONES LATER CLOSER TO WHERE THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSES. ALSO KEPT CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ON
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...FOR SOME LIMITED UPSLOPE POTENTIAL SATURDAY
NIGHT. 850/925MB TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE TIME SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...BLENDED HPC/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR
A FRESH FORECAST DAY 3 NIGHT THRU DAY 7.

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST
BRINGING WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE TIMING OF PCPN AND TEMPERATURE
FIELD WITH NAM AND GFS HAVING SIMILAR H850 FREEZING LINE REACHING OH
RIVER...THE SREF IS COLDER WITH H850 MINUS 5-6C...AND THE
SLOWER/WARMER ECMWF WITH A WAVY FREEZING LINE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CWA. LEANED TO NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS...FOR RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW SAT NIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CWA...AND ALL
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

GFS BRING ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE SUN NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
SHALLOW FOR JUST LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX THRU MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

GFS WITH FEED BACK ISSUES ON TUE AND WARM ADVECTION PCPN WERE
DISCARDED. THEREFORE...WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST OVER OH VALLEY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON AND TUE. THEREFORE...BROUGHT SOME
CLEARING SPREADING WEST TO EAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
WED...BRINGING BACK CLOUDS AND MORE CHANCES FOR PCPN.

LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON AS THEY LOOK TO HIGH. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS. NO SIG CHANGES MADE TO LOWS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE GMOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AND SKIES FOR DAY
4-7...IN THE 40S DAYTIME...AND BELOW FREEZING FOR LOWS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THURSDAY THRU 12Z FRIDAY...
BIG STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE WIND. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO OVER 40 MPH...AND OVER 55
MPH ON RIDGETOPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY AFTER 22Z WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND RELAXING OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER 14Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO VFR CEILINGS...AND THEN CLEARING IN
THE WEST AFTER 18Z.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z FRIDAY/...
MO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-026>032-035>040.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ024-025-033-034.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/JS/JMV
NEAR TERM...JS/JMV
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

000
FXUS61 KRLX 121101
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
557 AM EST THU FEB 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS CONTINUE TODAY...STRONGEST IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND. COOL BUT MAINLY DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
AWAY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE
SYSTEM. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. HOWEVER...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RANDOLPH
AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES...THEY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS LATE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE
ACTUALLY BEEN EXTENDED TIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR THESE TWO
COUNTIES...THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WIND ADVISORY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATER TODAY...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DECREASE ENOUGH OVER THE FAR SOUTH TO EXPIRE THE
ADVISORY AT NOON...BUT THE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO 5 PM FURTHER
NORTH.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY AS THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT WITH THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY. ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR AT BEST.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL DO A MINOR RECOVERY TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH
WITH COLD ADVECTION GOING ON. GOING ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
COLD TEMPERATURES. AGAIN GOING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE FRIDAY. THOUGH THERE WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING IN A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE INCREASED AMOUNT OF SUN
AND DECREASED WIND SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES TO EASILY REACH
GUIDANCE VALUES...AND I ACTUALLY WENT A TAD ABOVE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SPREAD WITH A CALIFORNIA CLIPPER OF
SORTS /IN THAT IT IS A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF UPPER TROUGH
IN WEST/...THAT MOVES INTO OUR VICINITY SATURDAY. GFS IS DEEPER BUT
FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE MODELS WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...NAM IS
FARTHEST NORTH AND SLOWER...BY TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. GFS WAS THE OUTLIER...BUT LATEST UKMET/GEM/ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS GFS DIRECTION. WITH FAIR AMOUNT BIT OF
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS...I ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS FOR
THURSDAY...WITH RELATIVE MAXES FAR SOUTH CLOSER TO MEAN TRACK OF
SURFACE LOW EARLY...AND IN NORTHWEST ZONES LATER CLOSER TO WHERE THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSES. ALSO KEPT CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ON
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...FOR SOME LIMITED UPSLOPE POTENTIAL SATURDAY
NIGHT. 850/925MB TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE TIME SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...BLENDED HPC/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR
A FRESH FORECAST DAY 3 NIGHT THRU DAY 7.

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST
BRINGING WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE TIMING OF PCPN AND TEMPERATURE
FIELD WITH NAM AND GFS HAVING SIMILAR H850 FREEZING LINE REACHING OH
RIVER...THE SREF IS COLDER WITH H850 MINUS 5-6C...AND THE
SLOWER/WARMER ECMWF WITH A WAVY FREEZING LINE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CWA. LEANED TO NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS...FOR RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW SAT NIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CWA...AND ALL
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

GFS BRING ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE SUN NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
SHALLOW FOR JUST LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX THRU MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

GFS WITH FEED BACK ISSUES ON TUE AND WARM ADVECTION PCPN WERE
DISCARDED. THEREFORE...WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST OVER OH VALLEY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON AND TUE. THEREFORE...BROUGHT SOME
CLEARING SPREADING WEST TO EAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
WED...BRINGING BACK CLOUDS AND MORE CHANCES FOR PCPN.

LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON AS THEY LOOK TO HIGH. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS. NO SIG CHANGES MADE TO LOWS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE GMOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AND SKIES FOR DAY
4-7...IN THE 40S DAYTIME...AND BELOW FREEZING FOR LOWS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THURSDAY THRU 12Z FRIDAY...
BIG STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE WIND. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO OVER 40 MPH...AND OVER 55
MPH ON RIDGETOPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY AFTER 22Z WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND RELAXING OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER 14Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO VFR CEILINGS...AND THEN CLEARING IN
THE WEST AFTER 18Z.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z FRIDAY/...
MO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-026>032-035>040.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ024-025-033-034.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

000
FXUS61 KRLX 121010
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
500 AM EST THU FEB 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS CONTINUE TODAY...STRONGEST IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND. COOL BUT MAINLY DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
AWAY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE
SYSTEM. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. HOWEVER...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RANDOLPH
AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES...THEY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS LATE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE
ACTUALLY BEEN EXTENDED TIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR THESE TWO
COUNTIES...THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WIND ADVISORY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATER TODAY...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DECREASE ENOUGH OVER THE FAR SOUTH TO EXPIRE THE
ADVISORY AT NOON...BUT THE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO 5 PM FURTHER
NORTH.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY AS THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT WITH THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY. ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR AT BEST.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL DO A MINOR RECOVERY TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH
WITH COLD ADVECTION GOING ON. GOING ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
COLD TEMPERATURES. AGAIN GOING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE FRIDAY. THOUGH THERE WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING IN A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE INCREASED AMOUNT OF SUN
AND DECREASED WIND SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES TO EASILY REACH
GUIDANCE VALUES...AND I ACTUALLY WENT A TAD ABOVE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SPREAD WITH A CALIFORNIA CLIPPER OF
SORTS /IN THAT IT IS A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF UPPER TROUGH
IN WEST/...THAT MOVES INTO OUR VICINITY SATURDAY. GFS IS DEEPER BUT
FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE MODELS WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...NAM IS
FARTHEST NORTH AND SLOWER...BY TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. GFS WAS THE OUTLIER...BUT LATEST UKMET/GEM/ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS GFS DIRECTION. WITH FAIR AMOUNT BIT OF
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS...I ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS FOR
THURSDAY...WITH RELATIVE MAXES FAR SOUTH CLOSER TO MEAN TRACK OF
SURFACE LOW EARLY...AND IN NORTHWEST ZONES LATER CLOSER TO WHERE THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSES. ALSO KEPT CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ON
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...FOR SOME LIMITED UPSLOPE POTENTIAL SATURDAY
NIGHT. 850/925MB TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE TIME SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...BLENDED HPC/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR
A FRESH FORECAST DAY 3 NIGHT THRU DAY 7.

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST
BRINGING WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE TIMING OF PCPN AND TEMPERATURE
FIELD WITH NAM AND GFS HAVING SIMILAR H850 FREEZING LINE REACHING OH
RIVER...THE SREF IS COLDER WITH H850 MINUS 5-6C...AND THE
SLOWER/WARMER ECMWF WITH A WAVY FREEZING LINE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CWA. LEANED TO NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS...FOR RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW SAT NIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CWA...AND ALL
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

GFS BRING ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE SUN NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
SHALLOW FOR JUST LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX THRU MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

GFS WITH FEED BACK ISSUES ON TUE AND WARM ADVECTION PCPN WERE
DISCARDED. THEREFORE...WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST OVER OH VALLEY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON AND TUE. THEREFORE...BROUGHT SOME
CLEARING SPREADING WEST TO EAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
WED...BRINGING BACK CLOUDS AND MORE CHANCES FOR PCPN.

LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON AS THEY LOOK TO HIGH. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS. NO SIG CHANGES MADE TO LOWS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE GMOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AND SKIES FOR DAY
4-7...IN THE 40S DAYTIME...AND BELOW FREEZING FOR LOWS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...
BIG STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE WIND. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG
THRU THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO OVER 40
MPH...AND OVER 55 MPH RIDGETOPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 22Z FRIDAY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND RELAXING
OF PRESSURE GRADIENT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR CEILINGS 08Z-10Z AREA WIDE.
AFTER 14Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO VFR
CEILINGS.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z FRIDAY/...
MO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-026>032-035>040.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ024-025-033-034.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

000
FXUS61 KRLX 120645
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
130 AM EST THU FEB 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THURSDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH WITH A VENGEANCE...WITH A CLEAR SKY
IN ITS WAKE. LOW CLOUDS WILL SOON RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES. LOCAL MODELS HINT AT A
DECENT CONSENSUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES...AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT FORECAST.
WINDS WITH SHOWERS WITH LINE WILL GIVE GUSTS OF 50+. BEHIND FRONT
SUSTAINED WINDS LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED
COMMENTS IN NPW INDICATING SECURING LOOSE ITEMS. NOT SURE JUST HOW
MUCH POWER PROBLEMS THERE WILL BE AS THE RECENT ICE STORM TOOK
MANY DEAD LIMBS DOWN AND THE LACK OF LEAVES WILL LET AIR PASS
THROUGH THE TREES. THIS MAY ALSO PERMIT WINDS AT GROUND LEVEL TO
BE STRONGER THEN WITH SUMMER GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING JUST FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS.  850 MB FLOW STILL AROUND 50 KNOTS
12Z-16Z.

HAVE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING THURSDAY IN NE WV AND
LEFT THE INCH OR LESS OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  GFS 850 TEMPS
MAY BE TOO COLD WITH MINUS 6 AT 12Z THURSDAY...THINKING MORE MINUS
3/4C.

WINDS CALM DOWN THURSDAY EVENING.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW ELONGATED VORT MAXIMUMS IN THE FAST 500 MB
FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE FRIDAY.  DID NOT THINK SYSTEM STRONG ENOUGH
FOR PCPN...BUT DID INCREASE CLOUDS.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  GFS MOST VIGOROUS WITH MOISTURE AND PCPN. WE ARE THINKING
SYSTEM MAY REMAIN MORE FRAGMENTED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE ALONG
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND DEEPER MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO
OUR SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN STATES.  SO NOT WILLING TO INCREASE
POPS OUT OF THE CHANCE RANGE NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...BLENDED HPC/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR
A FRESH FORECAST DAY 3 NIGHT THRU DAY 7.

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST
BRINGING RAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE TIMING OF PCPN AND TEMPERATURE
FIELD WITH NAM AND GFS HAVING SIMILAR H850 FREEZING LINE REACHING OH
RIVER...THE SREF IS COLDER WITH H850 MINUS 5-6C...AND THE
SLOWER/WARMER ECMWF WITH A WAVY FREEZING LINE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CWA. LEANED TO NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS...FOR RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW SAT NIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CWA...AND ALL
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

GFS BRING ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE SUN NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
SHALLOW FOR JUST LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX THRU MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

GFS WITH FEED BACK ISSUES ON TUE AND WARM ADVECTION PCPN WERE
DISCARDED. THEREFORE...WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST OVER OH VALLEY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON AND TUE. THEREFORE...BROUGHT SOME
CLEARING SPREADING WEST TO EAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
WED...BRINGING BACK CLOUDS AND MORE CHANCES FOR PCPN.

LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON AS THEY LOOK TO HIGH. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS. NO SIG CHANGES MADE TO LOWS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE GMOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AND SKIES FOR DAY
4-7...IN THE 40S DAYTIME...AND BELOW FREEZING FOR LOWS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...
BIG STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE WIND. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG
THRU THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO OVER 40
MPH...AND OVER 55 MPH RIDGETOPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 22Z FRIDAY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND RELAXING
OF PRESSURE GRADIENT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR CEILINGS 08Z-10Z AREA WIDE.
AFTER 14Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO VFR
CEILINGS.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z FRIDAY/...
MO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/AAR/ARJ
NEAR TERM...26/AAR
SHORT TERM...KTB/TJT
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

000
FXUS61 KRLX 120209
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
909 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THURSDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH WITH A VENGEANCE...WITH A CLEAR SKY
IN ITS WAKE. LOW CLOUDS WILL SOON RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES. LOCAL MODELS HINT AT A
DECENT CONSENSUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES...AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT FORECAST.
WINDS WITH SHOWERS WITH LINE WILL GIVE GUSTS OF 50+. BEHIND FRONT
SUSTAINED WINDS LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED
COMMENTS IN NPW INDICATING SECURING LOOSE ITEMS. NOT SURE JUST HOW
MUCH POWER PROBLEMS THERE WILL BE AS THE RECENT ICE STORM TOOK
MANY DEAD LIMBS DOWN AND THE LACK OF LEAVES WILL LET AIR PASS
THROUGH THE TREES. THIS MAY ALSO PERMIT WINDS AT GROUND LEVEL TO
BE STRONGER THEN WITH SUMMER GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING JUST FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS.  850 MB FLOW STILL AROUND 50 KNOTS
12Z-16Z.

HAVE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING THURSDAY IN NE WV AND
LEFT THE INCH OR LESS OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  GFS 850 TEMPS
MAY BE TOO COLD WITH MINUS 6 AT 12Z THURSDAY...THINKING MORE MINUS
3/4C.

WINDS CALM DOWN THURSDAY EVENING.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW ELONGATED VORT MAXIMUMS IN THE FAST 500 MB
FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE FRIDAY.  DID NOT THINK SYSTEM STRONG ENOUGH
FOR PCPN...BUT DID INCREASE CLOUDS.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  GFS MOST VIGOROUS WITH MOISTURE AND PCPN. WE ARE THINKING
SYSTEM MAY REMAIN MORE FRAGMENTED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE ALONG
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND DEEPER MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO
OUR SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN STATES.  SO NOT WILLING TO INCREASE
POPS OUT OF THE CHANCE RANGE NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...BLENDED HPC/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR
A FRESH FORECAST DAY 3 NIGHT THRU DAY 7.

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST
BRINGING RAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE TIMING OF PCPN AND TEMPERATURE
FIELD WITH NAM AND GFS HAVING SIMILAR H850 FREEZING LINE REACHING OH
RIVER...THE SREF IS COLDER WITH H850 MINUS 5-6C...AND THE
SLOWER/WARMER ECMWF WITH A WAVY FREEZING LINE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CWA. LEANED TO NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS...FOR RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW SAT NIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CWA...AND ALL
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

GFS BRING ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE SUN NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
SHALLOW FOR JUST LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX THRU MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

GFS WITH FEED BACK ISSUES ON TUE AND WARM ADVECTION PCPN WERE
DISCARDED. THEREFORE...WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST OVER OH VALLEY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON AND TUE. THEREFORE...BROUGHT SOME
CLEARING SPREADING WEST TO EAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
WED...BRINGING BACK CLOUDS AND MORE CHANCES FOR PCPN.

LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON AS THEY LOOK TO HIGH. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS. NO SIG CHANGES MADE TO LOWS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE GMOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AND SKIES FOR DAY
4-7...IN THE 40S DAYTIME...AND BELOW FREEZING FOR LOWS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SQUALL LINE WILL PASS THROUGH CKB AND EKN BY 02Z. WILL REMAIN
WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 50KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
A GRADUAL LESSENING OF THE WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN...WILL SEE HIGH END MVFR
CEILINGS IN PLACE GENERALLY AFTER 06Z. VFR CEILING RETURN
GENERALLY AFTER 12Z.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z FRIDAY/...
LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOR HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/AAR/ARJ
NEAR TERM...26/AAR
SHORT TERM...KTB/TJT
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26

000
FXUS61 KRLX 112356
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
656 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THURSDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT FORECAST.  WINDS WITH SHOWERS WITH
LINE WILL GIVE GUSTS OF 50+.  BEHIND FRONT SUSTAINED WINDS LOOK GOOD
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  HAVE INCLUDED COMMENTS IN NPW INDICATING
SECURING LOOSE ITEMS.  NOT SURE JUST HOW MUCH POWER PROBLEMS THERE
WILL BE AS THE RECENT ICE STORM TOOK MANY DEAD LIMBS DOWN AND THE
LACK OF LEAVES WILL LET AIR PASS THROUGH THE TREES.  THIS MAY ALSO
PERMIT WINDS AT GROUND LEVEL TO BE STRONGER THEN WITH SUMMER GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING JUST FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS.  850 MB FLOW STILL AROUND 50 KNOTS
12Z-16Z.

HAVE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING THURSDAY IN NE WV AND
LEFT THE INCH OR LESS OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  GFS 850 TEMPS
MAY BE TOO COLD WITH MINUS 6 AT 12Z THURSDAY...THINKING MORE MINUS
3/4C.

WINDS CALM DOWN THURSDAY EVENING.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW ELONGATED VORT MAXIMUMS IN THE FAST 500 MB
FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE FRIDAY.  DID NOT THINK SYSTEM STRONG ENOUGH
FOR PCPN...BUT DID INCREASE CLOUDS.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  GFS MOST VIGOROUS WITH MOISTURE AND PCPN. WE ARE THINKING
SYSTEM MAY REMAIN MORE FRAGMENTED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE ALONG
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND DEEPER MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO
OUR SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN STATES.  SO NOT WILLING TO INCREASE
POPS OUT OF THE CHANCE RANGE NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...BLENDED HPC/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR
A FRESH FORECAST DAY 3 NIGHT THRU DAY 7.

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST
BRINGING RAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE TIMING OF PCPN AND TEMPERATURE
FIELD WITH NAM AND GFS HAVING SIMILAR H850 FREEZING LINE REACHING OH
RIVER...THE SREF IS COLDER WITH H850 MINUS 5-6C...AND THE
SLOWER/WARMER ECMWF WITH A WAVY FREEZING LINE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CWA. LEANED TO NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS...FOR RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW SAT NIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CWA...AND ALL
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

GFS BRING ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE SUN NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
SHALLOW FOR JUST LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX THRU MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

GFS WITH FEED BACK ISSUES ON TUE AND WARM ADVECTION PCPN WERE
DISCARDED. THEREFORE...WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST OVER OH VALLEY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON AND TUE. THEREFORE...BROUGHT SOME
CLEARING SPREADING WEST TO EAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
WED...BRINGING BACK CLOUDS AND MORE CHANCES FOR PCPN.

LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON AS THEY LOOK TO HIGH. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS. NO SIG CHANGES MADE TO LOWS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE GMOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AND SKIES FOR DAY
4-7...IN THE 40S DAYTIME...AND BELOW FREEZING FOR LOWS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SQUALL LINE WILL PASS THROUGH CKB AND EKN BY 02Z. WILL REMAIN
WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 50KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
A GRADUAL LESSENING OF THE WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN...WILL SEE HIGH END MVFR
CEILINGS IN PLACE GENERALLY AFTER 06Z. VFR CEILING RETURN
GENERALLY AFTER 12Z.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z FRIDAY/...
LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOR HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/AAR/ARJ
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...KTB/TJT
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26