Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT", "TAMDAR", or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 07/14/08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
636 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 .DISCUSSION... ACTIVE MORNING AHD FOR MOST OF FA. CURRENT SATLT IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS GROWING IN COVG ACROSS NRN 1/2 IL DESPITE EVOLUTION OF SMALL MCS OVR CNTRL IL. TWO FACTORS OWING TO THIS DVLPMT. ONE IS FAIRLY STOUT LLVL JET AHD OF FRONTAL SQLN. 07Z ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF RFD INDICATED SWLY WIND OF 40 KTS JUST ABV 2000 FT AGL. OTHER FACTOR ENHANCING DVLPMT IS SUBTLE MID LVL PERTURBATION IN FLOW ELUDED TO IN CURRENT SWOMCD FROM THE SPC. THIS FEATURE IS EVIDENT OVR SERN IA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WEAK INFLECTION ON BACK SIDE OF DEEPER MOIST FIELD FROM SWRN WI-NERN MO. EXPECT SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS IL PORTION OF FA TO CONTINUE TO INCR IN COVG HEADING INTO THIS MRNG PERIOD WITH WEAKENING SQLN FROM NR GRB-MSN-SE OF CID CONTG SEWD ARND 40 KTS...MERGING WITH AND INTENSIFYING BKN CLUSTER OF STMS OVR NRN IL. RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS ALSO SUGGEST THIS AS STMS FROM ERN WI-JUST NE OF MLI APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZING INTO A MORE SOLID LN. THEREFORE HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL WITH POPS OVR IL PORTION OF FA THIS MRNG. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY DVLP EWD ACROSS NWRN IND BY MID MRNG AS WELL. SOUNDING OVR FA VERY TRPCL ATTM WITH FREEZING LVLS ABV 14 KFT. THIS SUGGESTS LTL POTL FOR SVR HAIL OR WIND GUSTS WITH STMS NOW OVR AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL DRYING ADVECTING INTO RGN WITH SQLN TO NW WILL ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT POTL...ESPECIALLY WITH REINTENSIFICATION OF LN THIS AFTN. HEREIN IS THE FCST PROBLEM FOR TDY...WHERE WILL REMNANT BOUNDARY/SFC COLD FRONT LEFT FROM APCHG SQLN BE WHEN AFTN INSTABILITY ALLOWS THIS LINE TO REFIRE? WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FCSTS IN EXPECTING THIS TO OCCUR TO E OF I-55 CORRIDOR BY ARND 20Z. THIS IS ALSO IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEW DAY 1 SVR OTLK THAT SHOWS SLGT RISK AREA E OF A GYY-PNT-UIN LINE. COLD FRONT TO THEN PROGRESS EWD...WITH STMS CLEARING NWRN IND COUNTIES BY ARND 02Z. PARENT SYNOPTIC LOW OVR MANITOBA...TO N OF WINNIPEG IS QUITE LARGE AND DEEP FOR MID SUMMER. ASSD STG PRES RISES/SUBSIDENCE BHD FRONT FROM MN-ERN CO SUGGEST RAPID CLRG/DRYING OVERNIGHT WITH SFC DEW POINTS LWRG INTO THE 50S OVR ALL BUT NWRNIND BY 12Z SUN. THIS WILL SET UP PERIOD OF WARM SUNNY DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS SUN-TUE AS ASSD SFC HI PRES MOVES ACROSS MIDWEST. EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO MORE TRPCL AMS MIDWEEK WITH INCR IN POTL FOR TSTMS. MERZLOCK && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WINDING DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN IL WITH AN AREA OF RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER TO PASS OVER THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 1-2HRS. WIND FIELD HAS BEEN DISTURBED BY CONVECTIVE WINDS/OUTFLOWS BUT SHOULD COME AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT OVER THE NEXT HR OR SO BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWEST THRU THE MORNING. ANY REMAINING MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE AS PRECIP ENDS. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO COLD FRONT TIMING AND THREAT OF NEW CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT A FEW QUIET/DRY HRS LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES. LOCATION OF NEW TS DEVELOPMENT IS DIFFICULT BUT GIVEN THAT MANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENED OVER FAR NORTHEAST IL...WOULD EXPECT THIS AREA TO BE A POSSIBLE LOCATION FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST THIS AS WELL AND HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN TEMPO FOR TS AT ALL TAFS BUT RFD. WITH POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT OVER THE TAFS...LEAD TIME FOR THE AIRPORTS MAY BE LITTLE OR NONE. HOWEVER IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP OVER/NEAR THE TERMINALS...IT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST. WINDS TURN WESTERLY 10-15KTS MID AFTERNOON BEHIND FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING AND WINDS DIMINISHING UNDER 10KTS. && .MARINE... 200 AM...FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT HAS FINALLY INCREASED ACROSS THE LAKE AND EXPECT PREVAILING 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THRU MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN MORE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...DECAYING SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY DISTURB THE PREVAILING WIND FIELD WITH AN HR OR TWO OF WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. EXPECT WINDS TO EVENTUALLY TURN BACK SOUTHWESTERLY BY/SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. GRADIENT ALSO TIGHTENS SOME DURING THIS TIME AND EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE BACK TO 20-25KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE ON THE FAR NORTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CMS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
300 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 .DISCUSSION... ACTIVE MORNING AHD FOR MOST OF FA. CURRENT SATLT IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS GROWING IN COVG ACROSS NRN 1/2 IL DESPITE EVOLUTION OF SMALL MCS OVR CNTRL IL. TWO FACTORS OWING TO THIS DVLPMT. ONE IS FAIRLY STOUT LLVL JET AHD OF FRONTAL SQLN. 07Z ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF RFD INDICATED SWLY WIND OF 40 KTS JUST ABV 2000 FT AGL. OTHER FACTOR ENHANCING DVLPMT IS SUBTLE MID LVL PERTURBATION IN FLOW ELUDED TO IN CURRENT SWOMCD FROM THE SPC. THIS FEATURE IS EVIDENT OVR SERN IA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WEAK INFLECTION ON BACK SIDE OF DEEPER MOIST FIELD FROM SWRN WI-NERN MO. EXPECT SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS IL PORTION OF FA TO CONTINUE TO INCR IN COVG HEADING INTO THIS MRNG PERIOD WITH WEAKENING SQLN FROM NR GRB-MSN-SE OF CID CONTG SEWD ARND 40 KTS...MERGING WITH AND INTENSIFYING BKN CLUSTER OF STMS OVR NRN IL. RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS ALSO SUGGEST THIS AS STMS FROM ERN WI-JUST NE OF MLI APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZING INTO A MORE SOLID LN. THEREFORE HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL WITH POPS OVR IL PORTION OF FA THIS MRNG. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY DVLP EWD ACROSS NWRN IND BY MID MRNG AS WELL. SOUNDING OVR FA VERY TRPCL ATTM WITH FREEZING LVLS ABV 14 KFT. THIS SUGGESTS LTL POTL FOR SVR HAIL OR WIND GUSTS WITH STMS NOW OVR AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL DRYING ADVECTING INTO RGN WITH SQLN TO NW WILL ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT POTL...ESPECIALLY WITH REINTENSIFICATION OF LN THIS AFTN. HEREIN IS THE FCST PROBLEM FOR TDY...WHERE WILL REMNANT BOUNDARY/SFC COLD FRONT LEFT FROM APCHG SQLN BE WHEN AFTN INSTABILITY ALLOWS THIS LINE TO REFIRE? WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FCSTS IN EXPECTING THIS TO OCCUR TO E OF I-55 CORRIDOR BY ARND 20Z. THIS IS ALSO IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEW DAY 1 SVR OTLK THAT SHOWS SLGT RISK AREA E OF A GYY-PNT-UIN LINE. COLD FRONT TO THEN PROGRESS EWD...WITH STMS CLEARING NWRN IND COUNTIES BY ARND 02Z. PARENT SYNOPTIC LOW OVR MANITOBA...TO N OF WINNIPEG IS QUITE LARGE AND DEEP FOR MID SUMMER. ASSD STG PRES RISES/SUBSIDENCE BHD FRONT FROM MN-ERN CO SUGGEST RAPID CLRG/DRYING OVERNIGHT WITH SFC DEW POINTS LWRG INTO THE 50S OVR ALL BUT NWRNIND BY 12Z SUN. THIS WILL SET UP PERIOD OF WARM SUNNY DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS SUN-TUE AS ASSD SFC HI PRES MOVES ACROSS MIDWEST. EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO MORE TRPCL AMS MIDWEEK WITH INCR IN POTL FOR TSTMS. MERZLOCK && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST IL EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IA INTO WI. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING OF TS AND WILL BROAD BRUSH THUNDER CHANCES WITH TWO TEMPOS THRU MID MORNING. HOWEVER...HEAVIEST/STRONGEST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE TOWARD/AFTER SUNRISE. LOW MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND PERHAPS BECOME PREVAILING FOR A TIME. CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS TO 30-35KTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE PREVAILING SSW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK MARGINAL ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH...ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A TEMPO FOR TS AND TAKE A CLOSER LOOK WITH THE 12Z TAFS FOR THE CHICAGO AREA...HAVE REMOVED TS FROM RFD. SHOULD ANY TS DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINALS... EXPECT DURATION TO BE SHORT AS THEY QUICKLY MOVE ESE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS SLOWLY TURN SW THIS MORNING THEN WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. CMS && .MARINE... 200 AM...FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT HAS FINALLY INCREASED ACROSS THE LAKE AND EXPECT PREVAILING 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THRU MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN MORE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...DECAYING SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY DISTURB THE PREVAILING WIND FIELD WITH AN HR OR TWO OF WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. EXPECT WINDS TO EVENTUALLY TURN BACK SOUTHWESTERLY BY/SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. GRADIENT ALSO TIGHTENS SOME DURING THIS TIME AND EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE BACK TO 20-25KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE ON THE FAR NORTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CMS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
949 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 .UPDATE... CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND EVEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING OUT OF THE CLOUDS. LOOKING AT THE 10Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM SAW AND OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THIS MOISTURE WAS STUCK BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 800MB AND EXTENDED DOWN TO AROUND 900MB. 09-11Z RUC RUNS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUDS AND LOOK REASONABLE...SHOWING A CLEARING TREND FROM NW TO SE AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING/LAKE STABILIZATION. MODIFIED CLOUD COVER GRIDS TO MATCH THE RUC. NEXT ISSUE IS UPSTREAM WITH A SHRTWV DROPPING SE THROUGH CENTRAL MANITOBA. WARM ADVECTION/DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO NW ONTARIO/NRN MN. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WEST OF INL. ENVISION THAT BOTH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND/SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN U.P.. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC/GFS/NAM OVER THE WESTERN U.P. DEPICT TOO MUCH CAPPING TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO OCCUR. THEREFORE REMOVED THE SHOWERS FROM THE WESTERN U.P.. DID MAINTAIN THEM OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THOUGH. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND INCOMING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN...TEMPS MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT MORE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z MET AND 06Z MAV GUIDANCE. MAY RAISE POPS TONIGHT WITH THE INCOMING SHRTWV AND POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z MODELS TO COME IN...THOUGH. && .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC AND A ZONAL FLOW FROM MANITOBA WESTWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW ARE OVER EASTERN U.P. AND MANITOBA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE QUEBEC LOW DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BLANKETS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PART OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE WESTERN ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC TODAY BRINGING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WESTWARD. THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO ONTARIO. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEYS AND SPREADING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND SHIFT INTO WESTERN ONTARIO AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. BY LATE AFTERNOON...300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AND MUCAPE WILL INCREASE TO 300J/KG. MEAN SURFACE-500MB RH WILL INCREASE TO 65 PERCENT. THUS LOOKING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A BROAD RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RACE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. ANOTHER TROUGH IS MOVING ASHORE OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SURFACE RIDE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE A LITTLE DEEPER INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AN ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE U.P. AND THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. MUCAPE WILL REMAIN WEAK AROUND 300J/KG. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER BELOW 850MB. THUS WILL KEEP THE GRIDS AS IS. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CANADIAN/CONUS BORDER TUESDAY. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL EXPAND TO ENCOMPASS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES MOVING WITH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN U.P. A THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. TOGETHER THESE WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN THE LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS PLAN TO KEEP WITH A 30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST AREAS. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL START TO SET UP OVER HUDSON BAY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE FORECAST AREA. THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH WILL MOVE ASHORE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN ALBERTA. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. MEAN SURFACE-500MB RH OF AROUND 70 PERCENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA. A STRONG FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BROAD RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS...THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ONTARIO. THE LOW OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THIS LOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE POINTS TO MUCAPE VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1500J/KG OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH AN AREA OF EXPECTED DEEP MOISTURE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER AN ASSAULT OF THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. && .AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)... MVFR STRATOCU DECK IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS MORNING...BUT WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY 06Z TUE...AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 03-06Z. SO...PROB30 FOR SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED WITH MENTION OF CB AFT 04Z. && .MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)... WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN 20KT OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE AREA AND WEAK LOW PRES TUE IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE ON WED. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE. && UPDATE...AJ DISCUSSION...DLG AVIATION/MARINE...JLB