in-crop-weather State Indiana Crop Weather Week Ending Date August 19, 2007 Issue IN-CW332007 Agricultural Summary Indiana crops continue to suffer due to high temperatures and little rain, according to the Indiana Field Office of USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. The northwest part of the state did receive rain, but also received strong winds that damaged crops. In the central and southern areas very little rain was received. Soybeans are stressed from the weather situation and there is concern about the pods filling. Corn condition varies across the state. Field Crops Report There were 6.0 days suitable for field work. Corn condition declined and is rated 38 percent good to excellent compared with 72 percent last year at this time. Eighty-nine percent of the corn acreage is in the dough stage compared with 81 percent last year and 72 percent for the average. Forty-one percent of the corn acreage is now dented compared with 34 percent last year and 29 percent for the 5-year average. Three percent of the corn acreage is mature compared with 0 percent for last year and 1 percent for the average. Ninety-two percent of the soybean acreage is setting pods compared with 83 percent last year and 82 percent for the average. Soybean condition declined and is rated 35 percent good to excellent compared with 72 percent last year at this time. Third cutting of alfalfa hay is 56 percent complete compared with 65 percent last year and 52 percent for the 5- year average. Major activities during the week included: spaying for aphids, cleaning out grain bins, readying equipment for harvest, and attending the state fair. Livestock, Pasture and Range Report Pasture condition is rated 0% excellent, 6% good, 19% fair, 32% poor, and 43% very poor. Hay is being fed to livestock because of poor pasture conditions. Crop Progress Table ------------------------------------------------------- : This : Last : Last : 5-Year Crop : Week : Week : Year : Avg ------------------------------------------------------- Percent Corn in Dough 89 73 81 72 Corn in Dent 41 22 34 29 Corn Mature 3 NA 0 1 Soybeans Setting Pods 92 78 83 82 Soybeans Shedding Lvs 4 NA 0 0 Alfalfa Third Cutting 56 32 65 52 Crop Condition Table ----------------------------------------------------------- : Very : : : : Excel- Crop : Poor : Poor : Fair : Good : lent ----------------------------------------------------------- Percent Corn 9 18 35 34 4 Soybean 7 17 41 32 3 Pasture 43 32 19 6 0 Soil Moisture & Days Suitable for Fieldwork Table ---------------------------------------- : This : Last : Last : : Week : Week : Year : ---------------------------------------- Percent Topsoil Very Short 37 36 2 Short 31 35 16 Adequate 29 29 77 Surplus 3 0 5 Subsoil Very Short 37 36 2 Short 38 39 15 Adequate 24 25 79 Surplus 1 0 4 Days Suitable 6.0 6.4 5.4 Contact information --Greg Preston, Director --Jamie Price, Agricultural Statistician E-Mail Address: nass-in@nass.usda.gov http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Indiana --------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Agricultural Comments And News PRICING CORN SILAGE IN 2007 Pricing from the seller's (corn grower's) point of view: "Production costs (excluding harvesting) are the same whether corn is harvested as grain or silage. I want to maximize return per acre." 1. Estimate income less harvest costs if crop was sold for grain: Estimate grain yield (bu./acre), multiply by price of corn if sold (from the field) as grain, and then subtract harvesting and any storage costs to get gross post-harvest return per acre. This is usually the minimum price ($/acre) for which you would be willing to sell standing corn. Harvest costs would include combining, hauling grain, drying, storage and any other marketing costs incurred for the sale of the crop as grain. For example, if estimated corn grain yield is 100 bu/acre, out of the field price of corn grain is $3.60 and grain harvest costs are $39/acre, then income less harvest costs would be $330 per acre. Example: (100 bu./ac. x $3.60/bu.) - $39/ac.= $321/acre 2. Estimate silage yield per acre. A. For severely drought-stressed corn that has little if any corn grain, measure height of several plants (not including the tassel). Calculate average height (in feet) and multiply by 0.9 to estimate tons of corn silage (35% dry matter) per acre. For example average height is 6.5 ft x 0.9 = 5.9 tons of corn silage per acre. Note: This is not an appropriate method of estimating yield of normal or even mildly drought-stressed corn. B. For mild to moderately drought-stressed corn, estimate grain yield (bu./acre) and divide that number by a value between 5 and 8. Five is for fields with moderate drought-stress (grain yield substantially depressed) and 8 is for fields with little drought stress (yields essentially equal to normal). If uncertain, 6 to 7 is a good compromise. Example: Grain yield is estimated at 100 bu./acre (mild to moderate stress) divided by 6.5 = 15.4 tons of corn silage (35% dry matter) per acre. 3. Estimate price of corn silage needed to match return when selling grain. From step 1 above, return via grain was $321/acre and estimated silage yield (step 2B) is 15.4 tons. $321/acre divided by 15.4 tons/acre = $20.84/ton of corn plants standing in field (assumed harvested at 35% dry matter). This price should be increased a bit to cover the value of the organic matter that will not be returned to the field. Buyer's (livestock producer's) Point of View. "I don't care what I feed my cows as long as the diet provides the right nutrients. I want to maximize return per cow." Determine what other feed, or more likely, feeds can be used to provide the nutrients provided by corn silage (remember, cows require specific nutrients, they do not require specific feeds). Your nutritionist can formulate several diets with different feeds and determine feed costs for the various diets. An alternate method is to estimate the value of corn silage based on the value of the nutrients it provides. Corn silage provides net energy, effective fiber, and crude protein to dairy cows and those three nutrients comprise the bulk of the economic value of corn silage to a dairy producer. Using a statistical technique, the economic value of those three nutrients can be estimated based on the prices and nutrient composition of all (or most) of the feeds available in a market. The method is complicated, but the calculated values appropriate for central Ohio at a specific point in time are available in the Buckeye Dairy News (http://dairy.osu.edu/bdnews/bdnews.html). Both methods require knowledge of the nutrient composition of the corn silage or corn plants (this is usually not known and the future price of nutrients and (also not known). When you do not have complete information, averages often are the best available option. Assuming average nutrient composition of drought-stressed corn silage and using the dollar value of nutrients averaged over the past year, corn silage (35% dry matter) has a maximum value to a dairy farmer of $47 to $61/ton (average $54/ton). A range is given because of the uncertainty associated with using averages and with the statistical method used to calculate the value of the nutrients. For normal (not drought stressed) corn silage, the maximum value would be in the $58 to $60 range based on this year's nutrient prices. The $54/ton (+/- $7/ton) price is the maximum price a dairy farmer should be willing to pay for corn silage when it is fed to the cow. In other words, all costs and losses associated with silage making have been paid. A dairy farmer should not pay more than about $54/ton because other feeds could replace corn silage at a lower cost. To arrive at a price to pay for a standing crop based on the $54/ton (+/- $7/ton) nutrient value, the costs for harvesting, storing and associated shrink and risk must be deducted. The average cost of storing corn silage is about $4/ton (35% DM) and since the dairy farmer usually owns the storage system this cost is deducted. During good fermentation approximately 10% of the dry matter put into a silo is lost (carbon dioxide, seepage, etc.) and this cost, sometimes referred to as shrink, also needs to be deducted when buying corn plants, rather than already-fermented silage. Maximum feed value of corn silage when fed to a cow: $54/ton Cost of storage - $4/ton Cost of shrink - $5/ton Maximum value of chopped corn plants when put in silo $45/ton If you are purchasing standing corn and the dairy farmer is paying for chopping, that cost must also be deducted: Maximum value of chopped corn plants when put in silo $45/ton Cost of chopping, hauling, fill - $6/ton Maximum price of standing corn plants (before risk) $39/ton When a dairy farmer purchases either standing corn or chopped corn plants, he is assuming it will have the correct dry matter, ferment properly and turn into good corn silage. This usually happens, but not always. Drought- stressed corn carries the additional risk of having high nitrates. The risk of a poor fermentation and high nitrates must be considered and the price of either standing corn or chopped corn plants should be discounted. Negotiations between the grower and dairy farmer ultimately determines this discount. Maximum price of standing corn plants $39/ton Risk adjustment (negotiated) - Negotiated Maximum price of standing corn plants(after risk adjustment)Negotiated DETERMINING ACTUAL SELLING/PURCHASE PRICE In the example above, the grower must sell standing corn plants at $22.50/ton (the $21.40 calculated in Step 3 was increased to cover the value of organic matter) to make the same return as he would if he sold the crop as corn grain. The standing corn plants are worth something less than $39/ton to a dairy farmer. Therefore the negotiation range would be between $22.50/ton and $39/ton. On average, things average out which means the selling/buying price for standing corn in this example would be about $30/ton. Bill Weiss, Dianne Shoemaker, The Ohio State University, Agronomic Crops Network by the Agronomic Crops Team. ---------------------------------------------------------------- The INDIANA CROP & WEATHER REPORT (USPS 675-770), (ISSN 0442-817X) is issued weekly April through November by the USDA, NASS, Indiana Field Office, 1435 Win Hentschel Blvd, Suite 110, West Lafayette IN 47906-4145. Second Class postage paid at Lafayette IN. For information on subscribing, send request to above address. POSTMASTER: Send address change to the USDA, NASS, Indiana Field Office, 1435 Win Hentschel Blvd, Suite 110, West Lafayette IN 47906-4145. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weather Information Table Week ending Sunday August 19, 2007 ----------------------------------------------------- | Past Week Weather Summary Data |--------------------------------- Station | Air | | Avg | Temperature | Precip. |4 in. |---------------|------------|Soil |Hi |Lo |Avg|DFN| Total|Days |Temp ----------------------------------------------------- Northwest (1) Chalmers_5W 93 56 72 +1 0.11 1 Francesville 89 53 71 +0 0.91 3 Valparaiso_AP_I 88 53 70 +0 2.23 3 Wanatah 89 50 69 -2 1.25 4 77 Winamac 88 53 71 +1 0.94 3 77 North Central(2) Plymouth 87 53 69 -3 1.52 4 South_Bend 87 54 70 -2 0.93 3 Young_America 91 52 71 +0 0.20 3 Northeast (3) Columbia_City 87 52 70 +0 0.98 2 76 Fort_Wayne 88 52 71 -1 0.42 1 West Central(4) Greencastle 95 55 74 +1 0.10 2 Perrysville 96 54 75 +3 0.26 3 84 Spencer_Ag 93 58 76 +4 0.23 1 Terre_Haute_AFB 93 56 76 +4 0.01 1 W_Lafayette_6NW 95 49 72 +2 0.19 1 80 Central (5) Eagle_Creek_AP 96 59 78 +6 0.00 0 Greenfield 94 55 74 +3 0.35 2 Indianapolis_AP 96 62 79 +6 0.00 0 Indianapolis_SE 94 56 75 +2 0.31 2 Tipton_Ag 94 54 73 +3 0.24 3 82 East Central(6) Farmland 92 48 70 +0 2.26 2 74 New_Castle 90 52 71 +0 0.00 0 Southwest (7) Evansville 104 64 84 +8 0.15 2 Freelandville 96 60 78 +4 2.27 2 Shoals 99 54 78 +5 0.09 1 Stendal 103 63 83 +8 0.04 1 Vincennes_5NE 99 62 80 +6 2.33 3 South Central(8) Leavenworth 100 62 80 +8 0.22 1 Oolitic 100 55 78 +5 0.07 1 83 Tell_City 99 65 81 +6 0.00 0 Southeast (9) Brookville 98 52 77 +6 0.00 0 Greensburg 95 58 77 +6 0.00 0 Scottsburg 102 53 78 +5 0.08 1 ---------------------------------------------------- Weather Information Table (Continued) Week ending Sunday August 19, 2007 ------------------------------------------------ Accumulation -------------------------------- April 1, 2007 thru Station August 19, 2007 -------------------------------- Precipitation |GDD Base 50oF -------------------------------- | | | | Total | DFN |Days|Total| DFN ------------------------------------------------- Northwest (1) | Chalmers_5W |13.30 -4.37 39 2424 +113 Francesville |18.46 +0.81 46 2301 +171 Valparaiso_AP_I |11.74 -6.58 37 2394 +290 Wanatah |16.88 -0.99 47 2209 +195 Winamac |18.29 +0.64 47 2320 +190 North Central(2)| Plymouth |18.98 +1.00 52 2251 +22 South_Bend |17.68 +0.48 42 2434 +341 Young_America |12.07 -4.81 47 2424 +239 Northeast (3) | Columbia_City |12.32 -4.77 50 2271 +276 Fort_Wayne |12.08 -3.87 47 2472 +286 West Central(4) | Greencastle |13.83 -6.23 41 2427 -34 Perrysville |12.63 -6.47 40 2660 +359 Spencer_Ag |19.34 -1.22 41 2521 +201 Terre_Haute_AFB |15.71 -3.41 42 2674 +222 W_Lafayette_6NW |14.54 -3.14 44 2478 +298 Central (5) | Eagle_Creek_AP |10.63 -7.37 45 2820 +389 Greenfield |11.43 -8.41 53 2562 +235 Indianapolis_AP |10.73 -7.27 44 2860 +429 Indianapolis_SE |13.91 -4.79 48 2560 +146 Tipton_Ag |12.29 -5.68 50 2383 +266 East Central(6) | Farmland |13.04 -4.45 48 2324 +259 New_Castle |12.97 -6.18 39 2367 +253 Southwest (7) | Evansville |11.18 -7.12 39 3146 +317 Freelandville |14.78 -4.27 42 2839 +305 Shoals |15.36 -5.31 39 2656 +210 Stendal |14.04 -6.35 43 3142 +480 Vincennes_5NE |16.98 -2.07 44 2950 +416 South Central(8)| Leavenworth |15.00 -6.14 47 2888 +451 Oolitic |13.69 -6.17 37 2602 +263 Tell_City |17.16 -3.68 31 3079 +378 Southeast (9) | Brookville |11.53 -7.73 34 2689 +471 Greensburg |13.99 -5.32 42 2726 +454 Scottsburg |16.71 -2.87 40 2779 +261 ------------------------------------------------------------------ DFN = Departure From Normal (Using 1961-90 Normals Period). GDD = Growing Degree Days. Precipitation (Rainfall or melted snow/ice) in inches. Precipitation Days = Days with precip of .01 inch or more. Air Temperatures in Degrees Fahrenheit. Copyright 2007: Agricultural Weather Information Service, Inc. All rights reserved. The above weather information is provided by AWIS, Inc. For detailed ag weather forecasts and data visit the AWIS home page at: www.awis.com