AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 245 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2003 .DISCUSSION...SSM/I RAIN RATE SCANS FROM SPACE SHOWED 0.3 INCH/HR PIXEL CLUSTERS EMBEDDED IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BAND CROSSING 130W EITHER SIDE OF 40N. GFS QPF CONTINUES AS WETTEST QUICKEST SOLN WHILE MESOETA RUC40 KEEP SWATH OF RAINFALL PRIMARILY ALG AND NORTH OF THE ORCA BRDR. WILL BLEND BUT WITH GFS EMPHASIS. TIME HGHT SECTIONS DEPICT DEEP COLUMN MSTR ONSHORE BY 06Z WITH OMEGA FIELDS GENERATING LIFT THRU 18Z SUN FOLLOWED BY MID LVL DRYING. AFTERMATH MSTR LINGERS IN LOWER TROP THROUGH MONDAY THUS WILL KEEP CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING ALG COAST AND FOG OVER INTERIOR ANTICIPATED TO HAVE WETTING RAINS. AIR COLUMN OVER NW CA EXPERIENCES DEEP SW FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. REBOUNDING DESERT RIDGE AMPS INTO THE REGION MON AND TUE. EXPANDING WARMTH TO BRING TALLEST MERCURY READINGS TUE WITH SOLID 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES. NEXT FRONTAL BAND ARRIVES LATE WED AHEAD OF SHARPLY BACKED LOW AND MID LVL WINDS AS FLOW TURNS NW NEARLY ABSENT OF ANY MSTR ALOFT BEGINNING THU. WED FRONT APPEARS WEAKER THAN CURRENT AND WILL RETAIN SLGT CHC NORTHERN PORTIONS ON WED. .MARINE...MODERATE W SWELL GRADUALLY BUILDS THROUGH SUNDAY PEAKING AT ARND 13 FT EVERY 12 SECONDS FM 280 DEG AZ LATE SUNDAY AND THEN HOLDING THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. THIS AND PRE-FRONTAL BLUSTERY SSW FLOW WILL KEEP SCA FLAGS FLYING AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY THRU MONDAY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS NOTEWORTHY SWELL EASES. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA OUT 60NM. && $$ COLBY ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 945 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003 FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...00Z JAX SOUNDING INDICATES DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE NOTED AT 800 MB WHERE THE INVERSION IS. THE PW CAME IN AT 0.90 OF AN INCH. CONVERGING ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS...EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS NOTED ALONG SE GA COAST MOVING SOUTH SO COASTAL AREAS MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. NE FLOW IS KEEPING COASTAL AREAS WARMER THAN WELL INLAND. DO EXPECT DECOUPLING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING... BUT COASTAL AREAS A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER WITH SOME PASSING CLOUDS. ALL IN ALL...ZONE FORECASTS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. MARINE...WINDS CURRENTLY A SUSTAINED NNE 19 KNOTS WITH 5 FOOT SEAS AT THE ST AUGUSTINE BUOY OFFSHORE. MESO-ETA/RUC NOT TOO FAR OFF THE MARK AND INDICATE SUSTAINED 15 KNOTS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE EXERCISE CAUTION LOOKS GOOD WILL KEEP AS IS. .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. $$ PP/JH/MM fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1002 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH 40 KM RUC SHOWS H5 TROUGH AXIS PUSHING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A BAND OF DEEP MID AND UPPER DRYING. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF H25 JET AXIS ALSO PUSHING DOWN THE PENINSULA HAD DEVELOPED AN OPEN LOW/INVERTED TROUGH AND WAS GENERATING CONVECTION WELL OFFSHORE. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WAS PRODUCING A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP WAS REVEALING AN AREA OF LOW BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS...ALONG REINFORCING COLD FRONT...MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA BETWEEN FLAGLER COUNTY WEST TO DIXIE AND LEVY COUNTIES AND SPREADING ACROSS MARION...NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES...INCLUDING DAYTONA BEACH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE CAP AT 1000 FEET ERODING DURING THE MORNING AND THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING AROUND NOON/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXCEPT FOR THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS...WHICH IS DISSIPATING...THE MORNING ZONE PACKAGE LOOK OK SO NO UPDATE IS PLANNED. .MARINE...LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AGAIN SHOWING THAT WINDS ARE AT THE HIGH END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. MODEL TRENDS TODAY HOWEVER SHOW WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING A FEW KNOTS. THEREFORE PLAN TO BUMP UP WINDS AND WILL GO WITH ADVISORY IN THE GULF STREAM AND CAUTION ELSEWHERE. .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE GULF STREAM. $$ SHORT TERM...WIMMER LONG TERM...LASCODY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 945 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003 SFC DATA SHOWS HIGH PRES OFF TO THE NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SWD THROUGH ST JOHNS AND MARION COUNTIES. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND COOLING IN VICINITY OF FRONT RESULTING IN AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVER SRN COUNTIES BUT IS SLOWLY ERODING. MESO-ETA APPEARS TO BE HANDLING FEATURES BETTER WITH A SFC LOW OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AND PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS INDICATE A GOOD BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE FL ZONES SO MAY GO FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. RUC AND MESO-ETA ALSO SHOW A BIT OF A NE COMPONENT AT 950 MB BY AFTERNOON. 12Z JAX SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB...GRANTED WE WILL HAVE DRYING THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNDER GENERAL N FLOW. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. MARINE...BUOYS ARE AVERAGING ABOUT 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT. SEAS REPORTED ABOUT 3.5 FT OFFSHORE. GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS MAY INCREASE A LITTLE FURTHER SO PLAN TO KEEP SCEC UP. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY. .FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES. WILL BE DRYING OUT BUT STAYING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. $$ ARS/JD fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 920 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003 .DISCUSSION... THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS OKAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES. CLOUD COVER IS THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH AT THIS TIME...WITH CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE ETA AND RUC 900MB RH PROGS APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND BOTH MODELS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. WITH 925-850MB WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...SIMPLE ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE THE CLOUD COVER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWFA. IN ADDITION...WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO COOL BY AROUND 3C OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AS THINGS SATURATE IN THAT LAYER. SO...WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA STILL SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK...AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM. ALTHOUGH NO DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE EAST...THE LOWER CEILINGS AND THICKER CLOUD DECK IN THAT AREA SUPPORTS KEEPING A MENTION OF IT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. ZONES WILL BE OUT BY 945 PM. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ TRH mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 124 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003 .UPDATE... WILL UPDATE TO END PRECIP AND DECREASE CLOUD COVER. DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT EAST OF THE CWA...WITH DTX/APX RADARS SHOWING LINGERING ECHOES NOW OVER LAKE HURON/ONTARIO. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN... WITH SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO MIDLAND COUNTY. CU DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL LOWER...BUT NOT VERY WIDESPREAD. MID-LEVEL DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES...AND MAY SEE THESE CU MIXING OUT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WILL UPDATE FOR PARTLY SUNNY/BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WILL ALSO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY WHICH WILL SEE THE EARLIEST INSOLATION. BRAVENDER PREVIOUS UPDATE...1011 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003 MAIN FOCUS WITH BE WITH PRECIP CHANCES/COVERAGE PLUS DURATION FOR THE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OBSERVED +125KT 300MB JET...TRACKING INTO NORTHERN LOWER BY 00Z THIS EVENING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ONGOING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED THOUGH...WITHOUT MUCH OF ANY INFLOW. 12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS A DRY LAYER BELOW 750MB...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 10C. THIS HAS HELPED TO DELAY THE ONSET/INTENSITY OF PRECIP...HOWEVER CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX/CONVERGENCE CONTINUE TO ERODE THE DRY AIR...AS SEEN BY SPRINKLE REPORTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. 12Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS MOISTENING UP...ALTHOUGH WITH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALREADY BEGINNING TO STRIP AWAY BY LATE MORNING. 12Z RUC/06Z ETA DO SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING THAT PUSHES EAST BY AFTERNOON...AND WHICH COULD BE LINED UP WITH DEEPER MOISTURE APPARENT ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. WHILE SOME 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE LINGERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP IS APPARENT ON DTX/GRR RADARS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER...AND LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WOULD INDICATE ONLY A FEW MORE HOURS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...EXCEPT HOLDING ON LONGER ACROSS THE THUMB. WILL UPDATE FOR MINOR WORDING/TIMING ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP. VFR SC DECK BACK ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON. RUC SOUNDINGS/PLAN VIEWS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING UNTIL NEAR 00Z ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUD FIELD. RUC TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT CU SCHEMES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WITH CONTINUED WEAK LIFT INDICATED BY QVECTOR CONVERGENCE...WILL STICK WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR NOW...AND WATCH TO SEE IF ANY BREAKS DEVELOP. && BRAVENDER .PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003 LONG WAVE PATTERN INDICATES EASTERN NOAM TROF AND WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WITH A FAST FLOW ALOFT (WINDS >120KTS AT 300MB). NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WITH THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED AS NOTED ON THE H2O VAPOR LOOP. A JETLET OF NEAR 150KTS OVER LAKE WINNIPEG WILL QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW WAS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO WISCONSIN. EXTENSIVE WAA AND RESULTANT CLOUD SHIELD BLANKETS THE GREAT LAKES AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SURROUNDING RADAR SITES AND METARS DO INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP FALLING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN (10SM -RA) DESPITE KGRB SOUNDING 650-850MB LAYER AOA 30% RH. SO QUESTION IS WILL WE SEE ANY PRECIP TODAY AND THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR OVER THE REGION ALTHOUGH SFC INITIALIZATION CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE GFS. TODAY... IMPRESSIVE WAA REGIME CONTINUES AND OUR CLOUD SHIELD/AC DECK IS PLENTY OF EVIDENCE OF ADVECTION UPSTAIRS. CROSS SECTIONS NORTH-SOUTH SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OUR CPD/S AND DEEPER MOISTURE COLUMN...MAINLY NORTH OF I69. FURTHERMORE...Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING NORTH OF I69 AND OMEGA FIELDS RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN ISSUE IS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND GIVEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE COLUMN EXPECTED NORTH OF I69...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE CHANCE R- (MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES) FOR HURON...BAY AND MIDLAND COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...A DRY FORECAST WITH A MOCLOUDY SKY...PERHAPS BECOMING PTSUNNY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON TRAJECTORY FORECASTS...MAV NUMBERS LOOK HARD TO BEAT AND MATCH UP WELL WITH OUR CURRENT GRIDS. TONIGHT... SFC LOW TRACKS OVER LAKE HURON EARLY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...ADVECTION FIELDS ARE WEAK WITH A GRADIENT EVOLVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT CWA-WIDE. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS BEHIND FROPA ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATION FROM THE LAKES. FURTHERMORE...CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT BASED ON UPSTREAM SATELLITE PICTURES WHICH SIGNALS LOWERING OUR LOW TEMP GRIDS A FEW DEGREES. MACHINE NUMBERS SEEM TO CATCH ON AS WELL AND WILL LOWER THE GRIDS 2-4 DEGREES. SUNDAY... TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AND AS FLOW BACKS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TEMPERATURE ADVECTION FIELDS RESPOND AND MODEL RH FIELDS INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...UNLIKE OUR CURRENT PATTERN...UPSTREAM MOISTURE PROFILES ARE EVEN WEAKER AND MODELS MIGHT BE OVER ESTIMATING THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. EITHER WAY...A PTSUNNY DAY WITH GUIDANCE BUT TEMPERATURES SHOWING DISAGREEMENTS. GIVEN A BIT MORE SUNSHINE... WE WILL SHADE TOWARD THE MID 50S NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST. (BLEND OF FWC/MAV) SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... WAA AND GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES OVER THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING. POTENT UPSTREAM WAVE BECOMES MORE A PLAYER ALTHOUGH WIND STREAMLINES INITIATE FROM THE ROCKIES WHICH IS A DOWNSLOPE WIND AND DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. WHILE SOME WAA CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND...THINK WE WILL START OUT PTSUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT KEEP THE WEATHER DRY. WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES...WE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT THE 70 DEGREE MARK BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SOME TWEAKS MENTIONED ABOVE. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ BGM EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1150 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003 .SHORT TERM...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS MI. 12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. LATEST 88D RADARS FROM KAPX AND SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWS OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF E UPPER AND THE EAST HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG LAKE HURON. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. LATEST RUC/ETA/MESO-ETA SUGGEST LOW CENTER WILL TAKE MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK BUT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS INDICATE MORE OF AN EASTERLY PATH. WILL COMPENSATE FOR THIS DIFFERENCE BY SLIGHTLY INCREASING WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND SURROUNDING NEARSHORE. 295K SURFACE SHOWS DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT THROUGH 18Z ACROSS E FRINGES OF CWA BUT QUICKLY DIMINISHING BEHIND WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 12Z RAOB FROM KAPX DEPICTS DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH 500MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 7C WHICH AT BEST COULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 60. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE ACROSS N LOWER MI AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR E UPPER AND AS MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAKE SLIGHT TEMPERATURE CHANGES BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATED ARBZFPAPX WILL BE OUT SHORTLY PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 4AM EDT... .LONG TERM...WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIP THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT RAIN FREE. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD COVER FOLLOWING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND LINGERING INTO SUNDAY. MODEL LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REFLECTED IN ONGOING FORECAST AND WILL NOT STRAY FROM THIS IDEA. THEN...JUST HOW MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS ABLE TO MIX OUT FOR SUNDAY STILL REMAINS A QUESTION. AS NOTED BY DAYTIME FORECASTER...ONCE LOW CLOUDS BECOME ESTABLISHED MOISTURE MAY REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE N/NE PART OF THE CWA FURTHER INTO THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THINK WE WILL SEE SOME MIXING AND CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE S/SW PART OF THE CWA...BUT INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM STILL LOOKING TO OFFSET ANY IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CONDITION. SO WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S N TO LOWER AND MID 50S S. FOR MONDAY...00Z RUN OF THE ETA/GFS TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH LATE MONDAY BUT WITH SIMILAR TIMING VERSUS THE EARLIER SOLUTIONS. WITH THAT SAID...SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH THE POSITION OF MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE ETA NOW TAKING THE MAIN ENERGY THROUGH LK SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION TAKES SHORTWAVE ~200 MILES FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT SPREADING RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN RECENT TRACK RECORD OF ETA. DECENT WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE OLD BOUNDARY AGAIN LIFTING N/NE BACK THROUGH NORTHERN MI AND 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO +8C TO +12C DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY RAINFALL IN THE EARLY GOING WILL WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ALONG THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND CLOSEST TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND CENTER OF THE SFC LOW TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO. BEST FORCING REMAINS W AND N OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AND THINK THAT WILL TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANYTHING CAN GET GOING. THUS HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE CHANCE WORDING FROM E UPPER MI SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LOOKS GOOD FOLLOWED BY RAIN LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONG WAVE MOVES THROUGH. FINALLY...AFTERNOON TEMPS A BIT TRICKY FOR MONDAY AND DEPENDENT ON ONSET OF ANY RAINFALL AND JUST WHERE THE BOUNDARY ULTIMATELY SETS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND 70 OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...IF ETA LOW LEVEL TEMPS PAN OUT (+18C AT 925 MB). AVN RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN THIS BUT APPEARS TO COOL. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AT THIS JUNCTURE AND TREND TEMPS UP ACROSS THE S. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE BEYOND MONDAY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ ADAM/CJC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1115 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERN FOR THE AFTN IS CLOUD COVER. WV IMAGERY SHOWS NW FLOW ACROSS GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. -RA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK IN THIS NW FLOW HAS EXITED ERN FCST AREA RECENTLY. AT THE SFC...THE ASSOCIATED WEAK ILL-DEFINED LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER KEWEENAW BAY. WITH PCPN CONCERNS OUT OF THE WAY...ATTENTION WILL BE ON STRATOCU DECK CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM ERN FCST AREA NWWD TO CYQT AND BEYOND. SINCE RUC APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION...HAVE LARGELY UTILIZED IT IN DETERMINING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN. ON THE 290K SFC (ROUGHLY 820-860MB)...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOW CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS UNDER 10MB LINGER OVER THE E INTO MID AFTN...SUGGESTING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP OUT THERE UNTIL THEN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA...NEUTRAL PRES ADVECTION OR DESCENT IS INDICATED. HOWEVER...CONCERNED ABOUT STRATOCU FIELD FROM TIP OF KEWEENAW NWWD. VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS IT MOVING MORE S THAN E. SINCE WRN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD MIX OUT SOME PER DRY AIR NOTED ON 12Z KINL SOUNDING...NOT EXPECTING ANY WWD SHIFT OVER CURRENT TRENDS. WILL COVER TIP OF KEWEENAW AND AREAS E OF KMQT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVER SW FCST AREA...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS THAT AREA IS SITUATED IN DRIER AIRMASS. TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER N AND NW OF THE LAKE WILL LIKLEY SPREAD S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NRLY IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW DROPING SE PER 06Z/12Z ETA. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING MIXING TO 875-900MB...12Z KINL/KGRB SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHS WILL REACH LWR 60S OVER SW FCST AREA. TO THE E...MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE (NOTE 12Z KAPX SOUNDING) SHOULD HOLD HIGHS TO THE LWR/MID 50S. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1011 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003 .UPDATE... MAIN FOCUS WITH BE WITH PRECIP CHANCES/COVERAGE PLUS DURATION FOR THE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OBSERVED +125KT 300MB JET...TRACKING INTO NORTHERN LOWER BY 00Z THIS EVENING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ONGOING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED THOUGH...WITHOUT MUCH OF ANY INFLOW. 12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS A DRY LAYER BELOW 750MB...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 10C. THIS HAS HELPED TO DELAY THE ONSET/INTENSITY OF PRECIP...HOWEVER CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX/CONVERGENCE CONTINUE TO ERODE THE DRY AIR...AS SEEN BY SPRINKLE REPORTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. 12Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS MOISTENING UP...ALTHOUGH WITH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALREADY BEGINNING TO STRIP AWAY BY LATE MORNING. 12Z RUC/06Z ETA DO SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING THAT PUSHES EAST BY AFTERNOON...AND WHICH COULD BE LINED UP WITH DEEPER MOISTURE APPARENT ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. WHILE SOME 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE LINGERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP IS APPARENT ON DTX/GRR RADARS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER...AND LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WOULD INDICATE ONLY A FEW MORE HOURS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...EXCEPT HOLDING ON LONGER ACROSS THE THUMB. WILL UPDATE FOR MINOR WORDING/TIMING ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP. VFR SC DECK BACK ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON. RUC SOUNDINGS/PLAN VIEWS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING UNTIL NEAR 00Z ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUD FIELD. RUC TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT CU SCHEMES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WITH CONTINUED WEAK LIFT INDICATED BY QVECTOR CONVERGENCE...WILL STICK WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR NOW...AND WATCH TO SEE IF ANY BREAKS DEVELOP. && BRAVENDER .PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003 LONG WAVE PATTERN INDICATES EASTERN NOAM TROF AND WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WITH A FAST FLOW ALOFT (WINDS >120KTS AT 300MB). NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WITH THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED AS NOTED ON THE H2O VAPOR LOOP. A JETLET OF NEAR 150KTS OVER LAKE WINNIPEG WILL QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW WAS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO WISCONSIN. EXTENSIVE WAA AND RESULTANT CLOUD SHIELD BLANKETS THE GREAT LAKES AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SURROUNDING RADAR SITES AND METARS DO INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP FALLING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN (10SM -RA) DESPITE KGRB SOUNDING 650-850MB LAYER AOA 30% RH. SO QUESTION IS WILL WE SEE ANY PRECIP TODAY AND THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR OVER THE REGION ALTHOUGH SFC INITIALIZATION CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE GFS. TODAY... IMPRESSIVE WAA REGIME CONTINUES AND OUR CLOUD SHIELD/AC DECK IS PLENTY OF EVIDENCE OF ADVECTION UPSTAIRS. CROSS SECTIONS NORTH-SOUTH SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OUR CPD/S AND DEEPER MOISTURE COLUMN...MAINLY NORTH OF I69. FURTHERMORE...Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING NORTH OF I69 AND OMEGA FIELDS RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN ISSUE IS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND GIVEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE COLUMN EXPECTED NORTH OF I69...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE CHANCE R- (MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES) FOR HURON...BAY AND MIDLAND COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...A DRY FORECAST WITH A MOCLOUDY SKY...PERHAPS BECOMING PTSUNNY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON TRAJECTORY FORECASTS...MAV NUMBERS LOOK HARD TO BEAT AND MATCH UP WELL WITH OUR CURRENT GRIDS. TONIGHT... SFC LOW TRACKS OVER LAKE HURON EARLY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...ADVECTION FIELDS ARE WEAK WITH A GRADIENT EVOLVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT CWA-WIDE. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS BEHIND FROPA ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATION FROM THE LAKES. FURTHERMORE...CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT BASED ON UPSTREAM SATELLITE PICTURES WHICH SIGNALS LOWERING OUR LOW TEMP GRIDS A FEW DEGREES. MACHINE NUMBERS SEEM TO CATCH ON AS WELL AND WILL LOWER THE GRIDS 2-4 DEGREES. SUNDAY... TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AND AS FLOW BACKS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TEMPERATURE ADVECTION FIELDS RESPOND AND MODEL RH FIELDS INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...UNLIKE OUR CURRENT PATTERN...UPSTREAM MOISTURE PROFILES ARE EVEN WEAKER AND MODELS MIGHT BE OVER ESTIMATING THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. EITHER WAY...A PTSUNNY DAY WITH GUIDANCE BUT TEMPERATURES SHOWING DISAGREEMENTS. GIVEN A BIT MORE SUNSHINE... WE WILL SHADE TOWARD THE MID 50S NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST. (BLEND OF FWC/MAV) SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... WAA AND GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES OVER THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING. POTENT UPSTREAM WAVE BECOMES MORE A PLAYER ALTHOUGH WIND STREAMLINES INITIATE FROM THE ROCKIES WHICH IS A DOWNSLOPE WIND AND DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. WHILE SOME WAA CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND...THINK WE WILL START OUT PTSUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT KEEP THE WEATHER DRY. WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES...WE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT THE 70 DEGREE MARK BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SOME TWEAKS MENTIONED ABOVE. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ BGM EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 230 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2003 ...RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FORECAST SUNDAY... .DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS IN ON TEMPERATURES. READINGS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED TODAY WITH THE LACK OF MIXING. 18Z TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WHERE MIXING WAS BETTER...TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 80S (AT OLU AND OFK). OUR MORNING SOUNDING WAS IMPRESSIVE...24DEG C AT 2400 FT. INTERESTING PILOT REPORT AT 1347Z NEAR KEARNEY OF 80 DEG F AT 1000 FT AGL. THE SFC TROF NE OLU AND OFK HIGHLIGHTED WHERE THE BETTER MIXING WAS OCCURRING. THE NELIGH PROFILER HAD STRONGER NW WINDS IN THE LOWER GATES COMPARED TO THE FAIRBURY PROFILER. THE LATEST RUC/IR STLT OVERLAY HAD A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FM CANADA SWD THRU MT/WY/ AND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FURTHER INTO NEB...MEANWHILE IT IS FLATTENED OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. HOW WARM WILL TEMPS GET? THERE IS A 100-YR RECORD ON THE BOOKS AT OMA OF 85 DEGREES. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EXPECT WARM AIR IN PLACE AND SOME MIXING SUPPORTS 85 TO 90 DEGREES. TWO WILDCARDS ARE HELD AS CI ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR TO HOLD BACK MIXING. CURRENT FCST FOR SUN IS WELL BELOW THE 95 TO 100 FCST BY THE ETA GUID AND AROUND OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE LOWER TO MID 80S FCST BY THE FWC. SHORTWAVE TROF AND SFC FNT PUSH THROUGH A LITTLE SLOWER MONDAY AND COOLING DELAYED. MAY BE ENOUGH RH AROUND FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN BOOSTED AND RANGE FROM THE MID 70S N TO THE LOWER 80S S. FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTEND...MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN WED AND THU. IN COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES UPPED THU HIGHS AS THERMAL RIDGE PROGGED TO NOSE INTO FCST AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF NEXT FNT AS FCST IS 8 TO 10 DEG ABOVE MEX...20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL AND COULD BE CLOSE TO MORE RECORDS 10/23. MID LEVEL TROF DIGS IN WITH COOLER TEMPS FRI AND SAT. && .OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ ZAPOTOCNY ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 217 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003 CONTD CLDS OVR CWA THIS AFTN. DWPTS DROPPG AREAWIDE...AND SAT PIX SHOWG SUM SCATTERING OUT OF CLDS. RUC AND ETA12 BOTH HOLDING ONTO MSTR AND MIDLVL BAGGINESS INTO EVE HRS. UNLESS OBS AND TRENDS SHW DIFFERENTLY...WL INITIALIZE WI MSTLY CLDY. MDL COMPARISONS SHOWG GUD AGREEMENT WI MDLS THRU THE FP. INITIALIZATION LUKS GUD TOO. ECST RMNS IN MEAN UPR TROF WI STG UPR RDG OVR THE SW THRU THE FP. WTR VPR PIX SHOWG GUD DRYG TO OUR S. AM TOYING WI IDEA OF WDSPRD FOG OVR AREA TNGT. WL GET IT IF WNDS DECOUPLE AND CLDS MV OUT. WL KP AN EYE ON TRENDS. 3H JET LIFTS WELL TO OUR N STRTG TNGT...ALLOWG SFC RDG TO BLD OVR US THRU FRST PART OF THE WK. NLY LO LVL FLO TNGT WL BCM NW TMRW AS SFC RDG BLDS IN FRM OUR W...ALLOWG DECENT WARM UP SUN WI DWNSLOPE FLO. FLO BCMS SLY LT MON AHD OF APPRCHG TROF FOR HIGHS IN THE LWR 70S. 3H JET PUSHES STG SYSTEM INTO AREA TUE NGT. SYS IS FAST MVG IN PROGRESSIVE FLO. MJRTY OF ENERGY...LIFT...AND MSTR STAY TO OUR N WI THIS SYS. TM/HGT XSXNS NOT SHOWG ANYTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE WI THIS SYS. HWVR WL CARRY CHC POPS. DECENT COOLG AND STG WNDS BHND FRNT WL MK FOR BLUSTERY CONDS THUR. THINGS SETTLE DWN FRI AND SAT AS SFC RDG BLDS BACK IN. MARINE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP SCA GOING FOR COASTAL WATERS AS WINDS AND SEAS BOTH MEET CRITERIA INITIALLY. BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND REMAIN BELOW UNTIL TUE AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. PRETTY GOOD CAA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND SCA WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SFC LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WED NIGHT INTO THU AND HIGH TO OUR W WILL YIELD A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU AND SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THAT TIME FRAME. .MHX...SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. CGG/WS nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1030 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003 FNT HAS MVD OFFSHR. LO CLDS OVR ALL OF CWA...BUT WI SUM BREAKS. ST TO CONT TO STREAM INTO ERN NC. RUC SHOWG FRONTOGENESIS AND MSTR HANGG BACK OVR AREA INTO MID AFTN HRS. RUC XSXNS SHOWG DCRS IN MSTR...BUT DOESNT COMPLETELY SCOUR IT OUT. ETA12 AGREES WI THIS. THRFR WL KP CLDS ARND THRU THE DAY AND WL LWR TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. WL INTRODUCE F/ST INTO AREA TNGT. MARINE: MSAS/KMHX WSR-88D DEPICT COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT SWEPT OFF COAST INTO CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING PRESENTLY MOVING E. VOID LEFT BEHIND CURRENTLY BEING REPLACED BY ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY 15-25 KT CAA/SURGE. 1020MB LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE THINGS DOWN A BIT THIS TIME TOMORROW AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE W LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PAST COUPLE OF HOURS FPSN7 SEA HEIGHTS PINGING IN THE 5.6 TO 6.6 FT RANGE WITH WINDS DUE N AT 25G30 KTS. IN LIGHT THIS...NOT TO MENTION WEEKEND BOATING COMMUNITY OUT AND ABOUT...WILL OPT TO RAISE PRESENT SCEC TO SCA'S ON SOUTHERN LEG. WILL DO SAME FOR SOUND WATERS DUE TO CEDAR ISLAND FERRY/ALLIGATOR RIVER BRIDGE/AUTOMATED REPORTS SPEAKING OF SAME NTH FLOW MOVING ALONG IN SOLID 25 KT TERRITORY. IF SURGE PERSISTS...MAY HAVE TO CONTINUE SCA CRITERIA LONGER THAN EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT THOUGH AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS INTO REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SURF CAMS/REPORTS HAVE WAVES ALONG OBX SURF ZONES RUNNING 2-4 FT...ALTHOUGH SENSORS AT THE END OF THE 1840 FT IN LENGTH DUCK PIER NOW PUSHING 4.7 FT. STARK CONTRAST SHOWS SURF ONLY REACHING 1 TO A STRUGGLING 2 FEET ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES FROM ATLANTIC BEACH SOUTH TO SURF CITY. BRISK NTH FLOW DOING A DOWNWARD SST NUMBER ON THE MORE SOUTH FACING BEACHES THOUGH AS HAMMOCKS BEACH STATE PARK REPORTING 62 DEGREES IN THE SURF THIS MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DUE TO RACE DOWN FROM NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN SWEEP OFF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE (15-20 KTS) AS SEAS BUILD ACCORDINGLY. FOR A DEPARTURE WEDNESDAY BRINGS ABOUT ALMOST CARBON-COPY CONDITIONS OF TODAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NW AS SEAS BUILD. GFS DRIVEN NWW3 HAS SEAS UP TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD GO A NOTCH OR TWO HIGHER AS PREVIOUS NWW3 RUNS HAD SEA HEIGHTS ALONG THE FPSN7 RANGE ONLY REACHING 5 FT AS TOP END TODAY...NOT THE CURRENT 6.6 FT WITH 30 KT GUSTS. .MHX...SCA ALL WATERS. $$ CGG/GC nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1000 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003 CLOUD COVER CONT TO STREAM SSW FROM VA ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS AM. LACK OF DOWNSLOPING AND A CONT NNE FLOW COMING OFF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY MAY HELP TO KEEP THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE INTO THE AFTN ACROSS THE E. CLOUDS LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL DISSIPATE ELSEWHERE WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. WILL ADJUST THE FCST A LITTLE FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH RESPECT TO CLOUDS AND WILL ADJUST TEMPS SLIGHTLY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER HEATING. WINDS THIS AM BLOWING AROUND 15KT AND GUSTY. RUC MODEL SNDG SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20KT JUST OFF THE SFC THROUGH THE AFTN. ETA DECREASES WINDS A LITTLE. WILL BUMP THE WINDS SPEEDS UP A LITTLE. HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE TIGHTEST PRES GRAD WILL REMAIN IN THE E DUE TO A SFC LOW OFFSHORE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER TROUGH SLIDING OFF EAST COAST THIS MORNING AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER REGION WITH DRY FALL WEATHER DOMINATING MOST OF THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION...S/W AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON WEST...EVENING/EARLY NIGHT PERIOD IN THE EAST. SO FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY... TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SHOW DRY AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN MID/HIGH LEVEL WITH SOME LOW LEVEL RH THROUGH MID MORNING. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AT THE MOMENT..SO MAY NEED TO HOLD ON TO SOME CLOUDS THIS AM. FAIR AMOUNT OF CAA TODAY AS LOWERING 850 TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST OF MID TO UPPER 60S. TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWER TO MID 40S ON TRACK. SUNDAY...CLEAR WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP. S/W TO CROSS NORTH OF REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THINK MOS GUIDANCE A TAD TOO WARM. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... CURRENT FORECAST TREND ON TRACK. AS MENTIONED DRY WEATHER EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN QUICK SHOT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W TROUGH/COLD FRONT SWING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING THROUGH THE WEEK. .RAH...NONE. JO nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 930 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003 .DISCUSSION... DID AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AS SHOWERS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ALSO CUT WINDS BACK TO MAINLY LIGHT. RUC SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND HGHTS STARTING TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY. AS WEAK SFC WAVE MOVES THRU SRN NY AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY... SOME DRIER AIR SHUD WORK INTO THE STATE. SAT SHOWS MAINLY HIGH CLOUD UPSTREAM WITH LOWER CLOUD SHIELD SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING UP OVER MICH. REST OF DISCUSSION FROM DAY SHIFT... TEMPS AVERAGING ABOUT 8 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENN THIS AFTERNOON...A TAD COOLER THAN THE SAME DATE LAST YEAR. EXTENSIVE...LAYERED/STRATO-ALTO CU DECK AFFECTING MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND NORTH WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF MID CLOUDS (MORE SUNSHINE) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. A FEW SHOWERS WITH AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE NW MTNS TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHRA/ CHC POPS AT THE SRN FRINGE OF LIFT (NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80) BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET THAT WILL SLIDE SE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY FROM THE SW-W (20-30 MPH ON THE RIDGE TOPS) LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS THE AXIS OF A 35 KT LLVL JET CROSSES THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL FRONT. SUNDAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY...BUT DEEP DRYING ADVECTING IN FROM THE NW WILL RESULT IN PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. N/S RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND WIDESPREAD FROST CENTRAL AND SOUTH...WITH TEMPS IN THE U20S/L30S OVER THE NRN MTNS. TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A DIGGING UPR TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GUSTY WIND (PERHAPS UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH) WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF...AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...NRN AND WRN MTNS SHOULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE UPR TROUGH AXIS SLIDES OVER THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY...BUT CHILLY WEATHER FOR WED AND THU...WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... HARRISBURG 43 62 40 61 / 20 10 10 10 WILLIAMSPORT 42 57 35 58 / 40 20 10 10 BRADFORD 38 51 28 55 / 80 10 10 30 JOHNSTOWN 39 54 36 56 / 10 10 10 10 ALTOONA 42 58 38 59 / 10 10 10 10 STATE COLLEGE 42 58 35 59 / 30 10 10 10 SELINSGROVE 43 61 37 59 / 30 10 10 10 LANCASTER 44 62 40 61 / 20 10 10 10 YORK 45 62 41 63 / 10 10 10 10 && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. && $$ LA CORTE pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 925 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003 .PUBLIC... PATCH OF LOW OVERCAST MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. BACKSIDE OF CLOUD DECK IS GRADUALLY ERODING. WILL WAIT A LITTLE WHILE LONGER BEFORE UPDATING ZONES TO REMOVE CLOUDS FROM THE TWO ZONE GROUPS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE. && .MARINE... NLY SURGE IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING WITH RUC/MM5 INDICATING A SIMILAR SFC PRES GRADIENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A 15 TO 20 KT RANGE SHOULD HOLD FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS THIS AFTN. SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 5 FT IN OUR 20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS. WILL MENTION A SCEC FOR THAT LEG AND IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR EARLY THIS AFTN WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ AUSTIN/24 sc EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 330 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2003 .CURRENT WEATHER...W/V OVERLAID WITH H25 RUC WINDS DEPICT EXTENSIVE DEEP LAYER DRYING OVER THE GOMEX...FL AND INTO THE NRN BAHAMAS. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WAS OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS BENDING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE KEYS. SUBTROP JET WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER CUBA. AXIS OF COLDER H50 TEMPS IS RETREATING FROM THE FL E COAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AND SUSTAINED NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTENT AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM TEXAS TO THE CAROLINAS. A FEW -SHRA WERE MOVING SOUTH IN THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY IN THE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE GULF STREAM. .TODAY AND TONIGHT...VERY SLOW VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST ACROSS VA... BUT GETS PINCHED OFF BY THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD COME JUST A TAD TODAY ALONG THE COAST AS SHALLOW MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. WILL KEEP SMALL CHC FOR COASTAL SHRA SOUTH OF THE CAPE FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. .MON-TUE...ASIDE FROM THE MORNING COASTAL SHRA THREAT SOUTH OF THE CAPE EARLY MON...FCST REMAINS DRY WITH ONLY A VERY SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPS. COOLER MINS/WARMER MAXES INLAND...VICE VERSA NEAR THE EAST COAST. .WED-SAT...HAVE KEPT NIL POPS WITH WED'S FROPA GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER FORCING...MINIMAL MRH VALUES AND CONVG ALONG THE FRONT. GRIDS WILL SHOW ONLT 10%. FAIRLY DECENT COOLDOWN ON TAP...ESP FOR THE NRN INTRR WITH THU/FRI MORNING TEMPS AS COOL AS THE M-U50S NORTH OF MCO. SHOULD SEE FARILY SIGNIF SPREAD COASTAL INLAND AS WINDS VEER QUICKLY TO ONSHORE COMPONENT THU ONWARD. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL CHC OF COASTAL SHRA INTO THE EFP FOR FRI/SAT. .MARINE...BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM IN THIS PACKAGE IS TODAY'S WINDS. BUOYS STILL HOVERING AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GFS/ETA SHOW ANOTHER SURGE OF WINDS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LESS WIND TO THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND KEEP THE SCA IN THE GULF STREAM AND WITH NEAR SCEC CONDS ELSEWHERE. BEYOND THAT... FCST PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD. WINDS VEER TONIGHT/MON...AND DIMINISH BY TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. ANOTHER STRONG NRLY POST FROPA WIND SURGE WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDS ONCE AGAIN BY WED NIGHT INTO THU. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB BB 081/062 081/064 083 -1111 MCO BB 082/063 083/065 086 0011- MLB BB 082/067 083/068 083 12211 VRB BB 082/067 083/068 084 12211 60= .MLB...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE GULF STREAM... $$ SHORT TERM...DECKER LONG TERM...CRISTALDI fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2003 COASTAL WATERS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON BUOY DATA AND RUC PROGS. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE ZONE FORECAST. .TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. $$ TJT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ******************************************************* 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2003 CURRENTLY: CLEAR ACROSS LOCAL AREA. TEMPS/DEW POINTS FROM AROUND 50/UPPER 40S SE ALA TO LOW 60S/MID 50S PANHANDLE COAST. 24 HR TEMP/DEW POINT COMPARISON INDICATES THAT LOCAL AIRMASS NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THAN SAME TIME YESTERDAY. WINDS CALM TO NLY 5-7 MPH. DISCUSSION: MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO LARGE-SCALE UPR/LWR PATTERN. LARGE UPR RIDGE CENTERED 4 CORNERS AREA AND TROF OVER WRN ATLC PLACES LOCAL AREA ON FRONT SIDE OF RIDGE TRANSLATING TO CONT STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY NLY FLOW. AT LWR LEVELS...IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S DRY FRONT...HI PRES BUILDING IN AND PER MSAS LCL GRADIENTS SLACKENING. MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WITH LIGHT-MODERATE NE FLOW ON TAP INTO WORK WEEK. NEXT BOUNDARY FORECASTED TO MOVE THRU LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY BUT WITH NO UPR SUPPORT AND SFC RIDGING PREVENTING GULF RETURN FLOW...MAINLY A FROPA AND ISOLD SHWRS MAY BE SQUEEZED OUT AT BEST. WITH HI SHIFTING EWD MON AND TUES...WINDS VEER TO ENE AND MAX/MIN TEMPS TWEAKED UP AT FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. EXTENDED: WED-SAT... IN WAKE OF BOUNDARY...OFFSHORE WINDS INCREASE ON WED INTO THURS. OTHERWISE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HI PRES BUILDING IN...LOW DEW POINTS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE. TEMPS AOA CLIMO WITH COOLEST MORNING THURS. LONG RANGE MODEL HINTS AT SHORTWAVE LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. AS HI SHIFTS E OF CWFA BY THEN...VEERING WINDS ADVECTING MOISTURE ONSHORE AIDED BY SHORTWAVE MAY HERALD MENTION OF POPS. MARINE: AS EXPECTED...OVERNIGHT BUOYS SHOW WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING TO SLACKEN AND THIS SHUD CONT INTO EARLY WED. CWF DIVIDED INTO NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS AND/OR SEAS OFFSHORE. AS NEXT BOUNDARY EXITS WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP AGAIN TO AT LEAST SCEC. FIRE WX: WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING NEXT FEW DAYS..RH DROPS TO MID 30S INLAND LOCATIONS..ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. BUT DURATIONS NOT EXPECTED. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 82 52 83 54/00 00 00 00 PFN 80 59 82 59/00 00 00 00 DHN 80 56 82 58/00 00 00 00 ABY 79 53 81 56/00 00 00 00 VLD 81 53 84 55/00 00 00 00 CTY 81 55 83 57/00 00 00 00 $$ BLOCK fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1135 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2003 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE CLOUDS/TEMPS. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN LAKES BTWN WCNTRL NOAM RDG AND A TROF OVER THE EAST WITH ONLY WEAK SHEARED SHRTWVS NOTED UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES CENTERED NE OF LK SUPERIOR CONTINUED TO BRING COOL ENE FLOW INTO UPR MI. VIS LOOP AND SFC OBS INDICATED AREA OF LOW/MID CLOUDS ACRS UPR MI SUPPORTED BY WAA / ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO STRONG 900-700 THERMAL GRADIENT. 12Z RUC/ETA SUGGEST THAT WHILE SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY MIX OR THIN OUT...MID CLOUDS (700-500 RH) WILL PERSIST EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST. WHILE WAA PUSHES 900 MB TEMPS FROM 10C TO 0C FROM W-E BY 21Z...ENOUGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NE 2/3 OF THE CWA TO KEEP TEMPS FROM REALIZING POTENTIAL FROM MIXING TO 900-875 MB. SO...WILL ADJUST TEMPS A BIT LOWER OVER THE NE HLF BUT LEAVE FCST MAX VALUES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE S AND W WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT EARLIER. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 338 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2003 .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS DRIFTING SLOWLY SEWD AS A LOW PRES TROUGH FORMS FROM NW MN TO SRN ALBERTA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO PACIFIC NW...WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR AREA LATE TOMORROW. MID/HIGH CLD CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE U P FROM THE NW...BUT CLEARING HAS NOW OVERTAKEN THE WRN PART OF GOGEBIC CTY AS THE WAA CLD BAND SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD. BKN MVFR CLD STILL HANGING ONTO MUCH OF THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...THOUGH IT WILL ERODE AS THE SFC HIGH DEPARTS. PER RUC/MESOETA H7 RH...WOULD EXPECT MID CLD TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD TNGT. ERN ZONES SHOULD REMAIN MCLDY HOWEVER...AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LGT RAIN OVER THE FAR ERN LAKE...AS REGION WILL BE UNDER RRQ OF DEPARTING 110KT H3 JET IN NRN ONTARIO. MQT RADAR SHOWS SOME ECHOES OUT THERE ALREADY...SO CHC POPS OVER LAKE LOOK REASONABLE. WITH CLEARING FROM THE SW...CURRENT DEWPTS IN MID/UPR 30S...AND A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP BELOW GUIDANCE LEVELS...OR INTO THE UPPER 30S. WOULD ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP...AS DEPICTED NICELY BY MESOETA SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS TO 1C OR LWR TNGT. VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE U P OVERNIGHT...KICKING UP H8 TEMPS TO THE MID OR UPPER TEENS. THUS... LOOK FOR VERY STRONG INVERSION TO DEVELOP AS SFC COOLS. AGREE W/ PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT MUCH OF AREA WILL BE DRY MON. WLY H8 FLOW WILL BRING WARM/DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH PLAINS...AND 12Z RAOBS SHOW H8 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF AROUND 20C UPSTREAM. SO IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MESOETA DRY SOUNDINGS ARE REASONABLE...AND A DRY FROPA LOOKS TO BE IN STORE MON AFTN. HOWEVER...AFTER MUCH DEBATE...WILL KEEP W/ LOW CHC POPS IN FAR EAST BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING...GIVEN UPR DIVERGENCE/HGT FALLS PER THE GFS AND GREATEST MOISTURE IN EAST...AND FACT THAT THE ETA DID POORLY PREDICTING QPF DURING THE LAST (SIMILAR-LOOKING) SYSTEM. ALSO...H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OF NEAR 8C/KM AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES WARRANT MENTIONING POSSIBLE TS AS LONG AS PCPN IS MENTIONED...SO HAVE REINSERTED SLGT CHC TS LATE AFTN/EVNG. AGAIN...THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH GFS. OTHER CONCERN MON IS TEMPS. THOUGH MORNING INVERSION WILL BE STRONG...W/ SUN AND H8 TEMPS INTO THE UPR TEENS...SHOULD BE A VERY WARM DAY EVEN W/ LIMITED MIXING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...TEMPS ARE IN LOWER 80S AS CLOSE AS SW MN. HAVE RAISED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY...GOING FOR HIGHS WELL INTO 60S/NEAR 70 INLAND WEST HALF. NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...AS WINDS BECOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE AFTN...MID 70S ARE POSSIBLE. MQT RECORD OF 72F MAY BE A BIT OF A STRETCH THIS FAR NORTH DUE TO LGT ELY FLOW ON N SIDE OF SFC LOW. COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE MON. H8 TEMPS DO DROP TO NEAR 0C BY TUE MORNING...BUT EVEN THIS IS TOO WARM TO GET THE LAKE INVOLVED MUCH (DELTA-TS NEAR 8C). GFS/ETA SHOW NW-SE ORIENTED SFC TROF DROPPING TOWARD THE U P BY 12Z TUE...AS SFC LOW MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES. SO...BELIEVE BY EARLY TUE SHRA WILL BECOME AN ISSUE NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. GFS/ETA H8-H7 RH WOULD SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THIS...AND FLOW WILL BECOME CYCLONIC/ CONVERGENT. GFS SHOWS H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -8C WED AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE BRINGS COOLER AIR FROM CANADA. WILL KEEP W/ CHC SHRA THROUGH WED FOR THOSE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...W/ LAKE GRADUALLY GETTING MORE INVOLVED IF THE GFS H8 TEMPS VERIFY (THE ETA IS WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES). HIGHS TUE/WED WILL OF COURSE BE MUCH COOLER THAN MON...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN 40S...TO LOWER 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. IN THE EXTENDED...AFTER LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT SHRA/SHSN EARLY THU... IT SHOULD BE DRY/WARMER INTO FRI AS RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING ROCKIES SYSTEM. GFS/UKMET/ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE IN BRINGING NEXT FROPA THROUGH BY SAT...THOUGH MODELS ARE ERRATIC WITH REGARD TO PIECE OF WRN TROF DROPPING INTO THE SW STATES. FOR US...LOOKS LIKE CHC SHRA WILL SUFFICE FOR SAT...AS WELL AS NEXT COOLER TREND. HAVE DECIDED TO GIVE SUN DRY WX WITH EXPECTATION THAT WAVE WILL PASS AND FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC (AS 00Z GFS/ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW...BUT NOT THE SLOWER 12Z GFS). && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JKL mi