AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 945 PM EST FRI MAR 23 2001 CURRENTLY... SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK RIDGE AXIS STILL FROM A HIGH CENTER OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... RUNNING SE TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. THE RIDGE IS STILL DRIVING WIND FLOW OVER THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH C-MAN SITES ON THE REEF AND ISLAND ASOS SITES ALL REPORTING NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT OVER WATER...5-10 KNOT AT ISLAND SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS MOLASSES REEF C-MAN WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND NOW ARE EAST. THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE FIELD OVER BAHAMAS...AND THE FLORIDA MAINLAND HAD A LOWER PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON AND SEA BREEZE EFFECTS...BOTH OF WHICH MAY STILL BE AFFECTING NEAR SHORE WINDS AROUND THE UPPER KEYS. IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE KEYS AND WATERS...WITH A NARROW N-S ORIENTED CLOUD LINE (THE REMNANTS OF THE OFF-MAINLAND-FLORIDA LAND BREEZE FROM EARLY FRIDAY) STILL INTACT AND HAVING MOVED WEST THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER KEY LARGO. TEMPS ARE CONSISTENT OVER THE AREA AS OF 9 PM...WITH ISLAND AND C-MAN SITES ALIKE REPORTING 67-68F. OVERNIGHT... LATEST RUC40 AND MESO-ETA RUNS BOTH INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE NE GULF...BECOMING POSITIONED OVER NORTH FLORIDA WITH THE RIDGE DOWN THE PENINSULA SOME TIME AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THUS...THE EXPECTED GRADUAL TURN OF WIND TO THE EAST SIDE OF DUE NORTH LATE TONIGHT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT MAINTAINING A NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF COURSE UNTIL DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY. THUS... THE CURRENT COASTAL MARINE FORECAST WILL GO OUT UNCHANGED FOR THE 1030 PM ISSUANCE. TEMPERATURES ARE OKAY SO FAR WITH FORECASTED TRENDS...AND NO UPDATE TO PUBLIC ZONES IS PLANNED. .EYW...NONE. CLB fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 742 PM EST FRI MAR 23 2001 LOW LEVEL WINDS SLOWLY VEERING AND MAY ADJUST WIND DIRECTIONS IN CURRENT PACKAGE TO REFLECT TREND. THIS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUC. THOUGH AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATE TONIGHT, AN OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG EACH COAST ALLOWING LOWS FROM INTERIOR TO WAFT TOWARDS COASTS BRINGING BEACH AREAS E NEAR THE 60 MARK WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE ACROSS S FLA. TRENDS ALREADY IN ZFP PACKAGE AND NO UPDATE REQUIRED. .MIA...NONE. $$ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 741 PM EST FRI MAR 23 2001 UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DELAY PCPN TIL MIDNIGHT OR AFTER. REGIONAL 88D/S SHOWING ONLY A FEW RETURNS EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN LOWER MI WITH BETTER DYNAMICS AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS. SFC FNT TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STILL NOT RULING OUT DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN AS MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OVER CWA. LATEST RUC SHOWS MID LEVEL OMEGA MOVING DOWN LAKE AND ARRIVING AROUND MIDNIGHT. WL CONT POPS BUT TONE DOWN A BIT TO SCATTERED WORDING. KEPT LIKELY POPS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE INCREASING DELTA T/S WL LEAD TO LES SHOWERS BY DAWN. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH INCREASING NW WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS BEHIND FROPA. .IWX...NONE. LASHLEY in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR TO REM NEZ080 FROM ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 330 AM MST FRI MAR 23 2001 FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY PRECIP/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TODAY...WILL ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NEZ081 AND KSZ004 BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND RUC SFC RH FORECASTS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CREATE GREAT PREFRONTAL WARMING. ITS UNUSUAL FOR THE ETA 2M TEMPS TO HIGHER THAN THE FWC GUIDANCE ON ANY GIVEN DAY AND WHEN IT IS ITS WORTH NOTING. ETA 850 TEMPS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAYS READINGS SUGGESTING AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 65 TO 70 WILL BE COMMON. WILL HAVE TO BREAK OUT THE NEBRASKA/YUMA COUNTY COLORADO ZONES FOR TEMPS A BIT LOWER CONSIDERING PROXIMITY TO FRONT AND CURRENT FOG OVER THE AREA. WILL ALSO MENTION THAT IT WILL BECOME WINDY LATE AS THE FRONT BLOWS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. 00Z/06Z ETA SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50 RANGE (OR UPPER 40S FOR THAT MATTER) LOOKS UNREALISTIC AND IS A BIG FACTOR IN THE OVERZEALOUS CAPE VALUES. 00Z KAIN-FRITSCH SURELY AFFECTED FROM THIS AS WELL. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TRW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO WHATEVER INSTABILITY EXISTS AS WELL AS THE FRONT AS A TRIGGER. TONIGHT/SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF AS CENTER OF THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP EXPECTED AS LIFT IS NEARLY NULL. WILL HOWEVER MENTION SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES PARTLY BASED ON 250 JET STREAK THAT PASSES FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL OPT FOR THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE TONIGHT AND 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE FOR SATURDAYS HIGHS. THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN FWC GUIDANCE WHICH IS REALLY NO SURPRISE. SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER LEVELS SATURATED WITH SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. WILL HIT THE FOG PRETTY HARD AND GO WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE. WILL ALSO MENTION A 20 POP FOR SNOW SHOWERS BASED ON 250 JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH. .GLD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081 AND KSZ004. THEDE ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1037 AM EST FRI MAR 23 2001 SHORT WAVE HAS EXITED E OUT OF LOWER MI LATE THIS MORNING. WDLY SCT FLURRIES AND CLOUDS RESULTING FROM THIS MOISTURE-STARVED VORT MAX HAVE ALSO PUSHED E OF THE REGION...LEAVING ONLY SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UPSTREAM...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WRN UPR MI AND NW WI AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL THROW US BACK INTO WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND. LINGER LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SW CWA ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITH INCREASING SOLAR HEATING/DIURNAL MIXING. LATEST RUC AND MESO ETA CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD RATHER DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH IN FROM THE NW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FOR ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MENTION OF INCREASING CLOUDS FOR ERN UPR AND NW LOWER MI ZONE...MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS BASED ON LATEST TEMP TRENDS. .APX...NONE. EME mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1020 AM CST FRI MAR 23 2001 AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD, LK SUPR, AND NRN WI TIED TO THE HUSKY LITTLE VORT MAX MOVG THRU. MOISTURE OVR THE REGION IS BLO 4,000 FEET UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE NEXT SPOKE OF VORT IS SWINGING THRU SWRN ONT NOW WITH AN 850 COLD POOL. A CU FIELD IS DVLPG UNDER THESE FEATURES AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SNOW SHWRS THIS AFTN. THE HEIGHT OF THE SHOWERS SHOULDN'T BE SGFNT ACCORDING TO THE MRNG INL SOUNDINGS AND SUBSEQUENT RUC2 PROG SOUNDINGS. .DLH...NONE. CS mn NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV 245 PM PST FRI MAR 23 2001 SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRUSH NORTHERN NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SHORT TERM...MAINLY PULSE TYPE -TSRA THIS EVENING WITH WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTH AND EXTREME EAST. RUC SHOWS THETA-E AXIS SHIFTING EAST AS DRY AIR AND WEAK VORT LOBE EJECT INTO UTAH TONIGHT. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CURRENT STRONG SHORTWAVE OFF PAC COAST BUT PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. WITH THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS NEVADA SATURDAY ETA IS SHOWING WEAK ENERGY EJECTING ALONG NRN BORDERS. WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC FOR SATURDAY FAR NORTH WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. AVN/ETA AGREE ON SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH POSITION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ACROSS NRN NEVADA SUNDAY. 700 TEMPS COOL ONLY TO -6C IN NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE COOLING TREND AND SMALL POPS THROUGH SUNDAY. LONG TERM...ALL LONG RANGE MODELS SHIFT INTO MORE NW FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AND SLGHTLY COOLER MON-WED. MRF KEEPS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DOWN RIDGE AXIS AS OPPOSED TO MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF AND NOGAPS. WILL KEEP TREND OF EARLY POPS THEN DRY LATER PERIODS. SLA .EKO...NONE. nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 925 PM EST FRI MAR 23 2001 QUIET ACROSS ESTRN NC WITH CLR SKIES. WINDS INLAND HAVE DECOUPLED AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL PROMOTE RAPID TEMP DROP HERE. DEWPOINTS ALSO CONSIDERABLY LOWER HERE SO I LIKE THE IDEA OF GOING COOOLER THAN GUIDANCE. AT THE COAST A LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY. THE SW FLOW HAS ADVECTED HIGHER DEWPOINTS WITH ILM...NCA...NKT...MRH AND HSE ALL IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. IN ADDITION LOW LEVELS ARE MIXED AND A SFC TROUGH FROM NORTH OF DUCK TO WEST OF FAY HAS A 4 MB PRES RISE CENTER OVR THE DEL MARVA INDICATING THAT THIS FTR SHOULD WORK SE ACROSS THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD HELP KEEP THE ATMOS MIXED UNTIL VERY LATE WHEN THE BL FLOW DECREASES BETWEEN 06-12Z. COUPLED WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS...MINS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE OR ABOVE GUIDANCE NEAR THE COAST. CWF: MESO ETA AND RUC BOTH SHOW WNDS BCMG NW TONIGHT AND PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 AS WEAK TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH PRES RISES/SURGE OVR DELMARVA PER MSAS. WL SWING WNDS TO NW AND UP SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 AND PUT SEAS AT 3 TO 4 FT. .MHX...NONE. PUBLIC/AVIATION...ELARDO MARINE...WAGI nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1010 PM CST FRI MAR 23 2001 RUNNING A BIT LATE WITH THE AFD THIS EVENING DUE TO ONGOING SVR WX. BEST INSTABILITIES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SRN OK/N TEX THIS EVENING WITH MUCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG. INCREASING LLJ AND WAA DURING THE OVERNITE HOURS MAY RESULT IN SOME REDEVELOPMENT..AND A FEW SVR STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN ZONES FOR MUCH OF THE NITE. MEANWHILE..STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY SWD ACROSS KS AND IS NOW ENTERING NW OK PER LATEST MAY RANCH MESONET OB. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANAL FIELDS FROM MSAS/RUC INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CAA IS VERY STRONG..AND TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AS THE FRONT SURGES SWD. COMPLETE ZONE UPDATE PACKAGE WAS ISSUED EARLIER TO BUMP TEMPS DOWN AND INCREASE WINDS WITH FRONT OVERNITE..IN LINE WITH LATEST TRENDS. MILLER .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. ok SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1010 AM CST FRI MAR 23 2001 BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WHERE WILL THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH BE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...DRT'S 12Z SB CAPE WAS 2535 J/KG WITH CIN OF -39 J/KG. PRESENTLY...BOUNDARY CLIPS NORTHWEST VAL VERDE COUNTY AND STRETCHES NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE TX. BOTH MESO ETA AND RUC PUSH BOUNDARY NORTH OF OUR CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A GOOD THUNDERSTORM COULD PUSH IT BACK SOUTH. SO...WILL GO FOR 20 PERCENT POPS DRT AREA AND HILL COUNTRY WITH A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE. SPC CALLS FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. WILL BE ASSESSING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR SATURDAY FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S PACKAGE. .EWX...NONE. 3/4/23 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 316 PM EST FRI MAR 23 2001 CRNT...PERSISTENT SNWS ASSCD WITH DEFORMATION ZONE STARTING TO SHW SIGNS OF WKNG PER RCNT KCXX LOOP WHICH SHWS BAND OF HIR REF BCMG DISORGANIZED ACRS NE NY/NW VT. 18Z RUC INDCTG H7 FGEN WKNG AFT 21Z SO DO XPCT A DECR IN SNW INTENSITY INTO THIS EVNG...BUT OROGRAPHIC INDUCED SNWS SHD GET ORGANIZED THIS EVNG PER INCRG NW FLOW AND DEEP MSTR RMNG IN PLC. ETA QPF AFT 22Z ARND .10-.25" ACRS MCH OF N ZNS WHILE 18Z RUC SHWG MAX ARND 0.4". DONT THINK THIS IS TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR FVRD NW UPSLOPE AREAS SO WL INDCT UP TO 3" FOR N VT/ADRNDCKS WITH LCLY HIR AMTS W SLOPES. ELSW IN THE N...AN INCH OR 2 SHD DO IT. LONGER TERM...STG S/WV DIGGING SE FM GT LKS SAT WL PASS MSTLY S OF FA LT SAT/SAT EVNG. AVN IS ON ITS OWN WITH 0.1-0.2" QPF MVG ACRS S VT SAT AFTN BUT ETA/NGM/GEM ALL SHW LTL OR NOTHING WITH BULK OF QPF TO THE S. BEST UL SUPPRT GOES S OF FA SO WL LEAN TWD DRIER SOLN WITH JUST FLRYS FOR S VT. OTRW...THIS S/WV WL CARVE OUT DEEP TROF ACRS NE INTO ERLY NXT WK. WITH CYC FLOW DOMINATING...COLD TMPS ALF AND LL MSTR WL HAV TO PAINT CHC SNW SHWRS AND EMPHASIZE CLDS N ZNS THRU THE PD. S VT A LTL FTHR RMVD FM MSTR SO WENT OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AND MNTND PTSUNNY SAT/SUN. XTNDD...MRF INDCTG POTL FOR ANOTHER CSTL STORM LT IN THE WEEK BUT JURY IS STILL OUT ON THIS AS MDLS NOT ON THE SAME PAGE. WL MNTN CHC SNW OR RA FOR THU/FRI. .BTV...NONE. KJC vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1020 AM EST FRI MAR 23 2001 WRAPARND/DEFORMATION SNWS IN FULL TILT ACRS NRN FA. SFC LOW WL MOV SLOWLY TO NOVA SCOTIA BY THIS EVNG. KCXX VAD ALRDY SHWG N/NW FLOW THRU 8K FT AND XPCT WNDS TO BACK TO MORE OF A NW DIRECTION TAFTN. KCXX SHWS BAND OF HVIER SNW FM NR YUL THRU CLINTON CNTY AND INTO NW VT...THE RSLT OF A DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS SHWS UP QUITE WELL IN RUC H7 FGEN FIELD. RUC FCST AXIS OF BEST FGEN TO SLOWLY MOV ACRS N VT TAFTN. COMBINED WITH DEEP MSTR AND INCRG NW FLOW...XPCT SNW TO CONT INTO THIS EVNG N FA...WITH EMPHASIS ON W SLOPES GREENS. 06Z ETA INDCTD UP TO 0.3" QPF AFT 15Z ACRS ADRNDCKS/N VT HIR TRRN AND NEW 12Z ETA SMLR SO WL INCR SNW ACCUM TO 2-4" FOR FVRD N ZNS BY EVNG. 12Z ETA/NGM ALSO INDCTS SNW WL CONT THRU FIRST HLF TNGT SO INCRD POPS TNGT N ZNS FM ADRNDCKS EWD. XPCT LOCALLY 6"+ ADDITL SNW ACCUM ACRS SOME HIR TRRN LOCNS ACRS NE NY/NW VT BY THE TM THE SNW ENDS LTR TNGT. .BTV...NONE. KJC vt WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 209 PM MST SAT MAR 24 2001 WEAK WAVE PASSING ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON PER WATER VAPOR AND RUC 500 MB VORT FIELD HELPING TO KICK OFF CUMULUS AND A FEW MTN SHOWERS. ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PASSAGE OF WAVE. CIRRUS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY PUSHING INTO CENTRAL UT. PAC SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO PAC NW TONIGHT AND NRN ROCKIES SUN WHILE BREAKING INTO A COUPLE PIECES ACCORDING TO MDLS AS IT PUSHES INTO RIDGE. WEAKENING SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH NE UT/NW CO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWING IN VICINITY OF WC CO-SRN UT LINE MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE IN THE NORTH...AND CONTINUE IT INTO SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL...BUT WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE ON PCPN AT THE MOMENT WITH MODELS FRAGMENTING TROUGH AS IT PUSHES THROUGH RIDGE. LOOKS LIKE WAVE IN SRN STREAM GETS ABSORBED AND PASSES NEAR 4-CORNERS ON MONDAY...WILL HAVE MENTION OF PCPN IN SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT KEEP LOWER ELEVATIONS DRY FOR NOW. COOLER ON MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. NEXT WAVE THEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. IN THE EXTENDED (TUE-SAT)...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED IN A WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW CONTAINING A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...BUT WITH A TREND TOWARD DRYING AND RIDGING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MAIN TROUGH PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE ABOUT MIDWEEK PER EC/UK/MRF...WITH THE MRF SHOWING ANOTHER WAVE PASSING THU NIGHT/FRI IN NWLY FLOW. LIKELY TO HAVE SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTN/EVE PERIODS PER INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME SO WILL NOT MAKE TOO MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT EXTENDED. MAIN AREA AFFECTED WOULD SEEM TO BE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. JAD .GJT...NONE. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1030 AM EST SAT MAR 24 2001 --UPDATED SECTION-- TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY OVER CWFA AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SO WILL RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES ON ZONES. FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL NOW HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED DUE TO WARMER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AND DELAY OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. WILL MAKE DECISION WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING WITH NOON SMOKE DISPERSION UPDATE. --END UPDATED SECTION-- SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER N TX WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS STREAMING TOWARDS THE CWFA. 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM N TX TO OH...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ROUGHLY 60-80 MILES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER W TX ASSOCIATED WITH MCS IS PROGGED BY RUC TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING...AND SURFACE FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE TO A NORTH GA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MS LINE. THIS DOES NOT FAVOR POPS OVER OUR CWFA TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ZONES ALONE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO POPS. LOCAL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FORECAST HIGHS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM PROGS SUPPORT COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE. MAIN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE ON PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. TJT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 940 AM EST SAT MAR 24 2001 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER N TX WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS STREAMING TOWARDS THE CWFA. 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM N TX TO OH...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ROUGHLY 60-80 MILES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER W TX ASSOCIATED WITH MCS IS PROGGED BY RUC TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING...AND SURFACE FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE TO A NORTH GA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MS LINE. THIS DOES NOT FAVOR POPS OVER OUR CWFA TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ZONES ALONE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO POPS. LOCAL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FORECAST HIGHS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM PROGS SUPPORT COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE. MAIN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE ON PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. TJT fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 920 AM EST SAT MAR 24 2001 CURRENT...RUC SURFACE ANLYS SHOWS RATHER BROAD HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM WRN ATLC ACROSS SOUTH GA/AL AND NORTH/CTRL FL. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD RIPPLE OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OFFSHORE ECFL WITH ALMOST A WEAK "SCREAMING EAGLE" TYPE SIGNATURE IN CONVERGENCE BANDS. WINDS AT SPGF1 C-MAN AND BUOYS 41009/41010 INDICATE A SSW-NNE ORIENTED SFC TROUGH THROUGH THIS AREA. FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS NOTED ON MLB 88D ABOUT 15-20NM OFFSHORE KMLB WITH A STRONGER CLUSTER 5-15 OFFSHORE MARTIN COUNTY. 12Z RAOBS FROM KMIA/KXMR SHOW A BIT MORE MOISTURE BELOW H90 THAN @KTBW/KJAX...WITH PWATS ARE A COUPLE TENTHS HIGHER. 12Z RUC FORECAST THROUGH H12 SHOWS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OFFSHORE UNTIL IT WASHES OUT AROUND 00Z. THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE MARINE AREA AND WILL NEED TO TWEAK SOME LOCALES TO EAST OR EVEN NE. ALSO...WILL GO WITH "PCLDY" FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM AT LEAST BREVARD SOUTH DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE CONVERGENT BAND NEAR SHORE...AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT UP INTO U50S-L60S. SFC MOISTURE THERE IS LESS SHALLOW THAN OVER THE INTERIOR. FIRE WEATHER...KTBW/KJAX RAOBS LIKELY TO BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIR MASS OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. SLIGHT RISE OF DEW POINTS INTO THE M50S BEING CAUSED BY SHALLOW BLYR MOISTURE MIXING IN AS THE RADIATION INVERSION BREAKS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WE WILL SEE THE L40S AIR @1-2KFT AND ABOVE QUICKLY WORK IT'S WAY DOWN LATER THIS MORNING. MARINE...PRESENCE OF AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY DELAY ONSET OF SE WINDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MARINE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH...GIVEN SE WINDS AT SPGF1 (EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS). PLAN TO GO WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST ACROSS THE FLG-COF LEG AND E-SE ACROSS COF-JUP. .MLB...RED FLAG WARNING FOR INTERIOR ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI AVIATION/FIRE WX...VOLKMER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1059 AM EST SAT MAR 24 2001 .UPDATED... WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REARRANGE ZONE GROUPINGS AND UPDATE WORDING. WILL BRING ZN 17 INTO GROUPING WITH ZNS 5-6-10-11 AS BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING ZN 17 NORTHWEST INTO ZN 5. FOR COASTAL WATERS GALE WARNING WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE GASPE PENINSULA AND DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN ROTATE COUNTERCLOCKWISE THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE BEFORE WEAKENING AND LIFTING THROUGH THE MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. DISCUSSION... MAIN PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AFFECTING FAR NORTHERN MAINE WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN MAINE ATTM. SOME AMOUNTS RECEIVED ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ATTM. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING DOWNEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND WAIT TO THE LAST MINUTE ON WHETHER TO ISSUE WNTR WX ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TAKING LEADING SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING CUTOFF AND MOVING IT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST EARLY TONIGHT. BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE STAYS JUST SOUTH OF DOWNEAST. REINFORCING H5 CUTOFF MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE TONIGHT AND HOLDS ON ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM REACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. COASTAL WATERS... EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION NOT VERY STRONG...EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP GALE CONDITIONS GOING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. .CAR...GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. DW/JAH me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 420 AM EST SAT MAR 24 2001 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE GASPE PENINSULA AND DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN ROTATE COUNTERCLOCKWISE THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE BEFORE WEAKENING AND LIFTING THROUGH THE MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. DISCUSSION... MAIN PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AFFECTING FAR NORTHERN MAINE WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN MAINE ATTM. SOME AMOUNTS RECEIVED ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ATTM. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING DOWNEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND WAIT TO THE LAST MINUTE ON WHETHER TO ISSUE WNTR WX ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TAKING LEADING SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING CUTOFF AND MOVING IT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST EARLY TONIGHT. BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE STAYS JUST SOUTH OF DOWNEAST. REINFORCING H5 CUTOFF MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE TONIGHT AND HOLDS ON ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM REACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. COASTAL WATERS... EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION NOT VERY STRONG...EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP GALE CONDITIONS GOING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. .CAR...GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. FITZSIMMONS me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1220 PM EST SAT MAR 24 2001 BIGGEST CONCERNS ON UPDATE ARE LES BANDS AND TEMPS. LATEST WV LOOP/RUC ANALYSIS AND 12Z RAOBS INDICATE UPR LVL LOW JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WITH A COUPLE OF SHRTWVS PINWHEELING SWD AROUND THE LOW TOWARD U.P. SHRTWVS TO KEEP UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS OVER FA THRU WEEKEND AND PROVIDE QG FORCING/ENHANCEMENT FOR LES LATER THIS AFT AND TONIGHT. INITIAL SHRTWV MOVG SWD THRU SRN ONTARIO EVIDENT ON WV LOOP/RUC ANALYSIS. 850 MB TEMPS BEHIND ASSOC CDFNT IN -23C TO -24C PER 12Z RAOBS. EXPECT SOME OF THIS COLD AIR TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATER THIS AFT AND ERY EVNG...PER COMPROMISE OF ETA AND AVN SOLN. QG ENHANCEMENT WITH SHRTWV TO RAISE INV HGTS FM 850 MB TO AROUND 800 MB PRODUCING LAKE INDUCED CAPES TO NR 500 J/KG PER MODIFIED 12Z ETA SNDGS. GIVEN INCRGLY CYCLONIC FLOW FM 21Z-00Z EXPECT LES TO PICK UP INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. HWVR...LES BANDING THUS FAR APPEARS TO BE DISRUPTED BY DIURNAL HEATING OF HIGH MARCH SUN ANGLE SO WL NOT GO TOO WILD WITH ADDITIONAL AMTS. WITH CBL FLOW 320-330 TO 20 KTS WOULD LOOK FOR 1-2" OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OVR THE 4 WRN COUNTIES WITH 1-3" MORE OVER ALGER-LUCE-NRN SCHOOLCRAFT WHERE LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WL BE MORE FAVORABLE. WENT 1" OR LESS FOR MQT-BARAGA IN SHADOW OF KEW PENINSULA IN NW FLOW. TRIMMED BACK HIGH TEMPS A BIT GIVEN CLDS...CONTINUED CAA AND SLOW REBOUND OF CURRENT READINGS. UPSTREAM HIGH TEMP TRAJECTORIES FM WRN ONTARIO AND SRN MANITOBA WOULD YIELD MUCH COLDER TEMPS (10 TO 15F) THAN GOING FCST...ALTHOUGH THIS NOT FACTORING IN MODIFYING INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LWRD TEMPS TO 15 TO 20F FOR NW AND NCNTRL AND TO 20 TO 25 SOUTH CNTRL AND SE. .MQT...NONE. VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST SAT MAR 24 2001 CLOUDS AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE THE LARGEST CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A STEADY SUPPLY OF SUBSIDING DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WHICH ARGUES FOR DECREASING CLOUDS...HOWEVER MOIST MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION HAS ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RESULT LIKELY TO BE DEVELOPMENT OF ABUNDANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...MAKING THE CLOUD FORECAST VERY TRICKY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WON'T BE TOO QUICK TO UPDATE ANY ZONES FOR WARMER THAN EXPECTED HIGHS OR MORE OPTIMISTIC CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT. WILL UPDATE ZONES MAINLY FOR WORDING BEFORE NOON AND FOLLOW TRENDS THEREAFTER. WIND SPEEDS REACHED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING WICHITA FALLS AND LAWTON...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO THE ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH TEXAS. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AS PRECIP PULLS OUT OF THE AREA...DIMINISHING ADDITIONAL PRESSURE RISES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. JAMES ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 220 PM EST SAT MAR 24 2001 FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD NC MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF FRONT NOT QUITE WHAT RUC SUGGESTED EARLIER. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH CENTRAL GA. APPEARS MOST ACTIVE WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN IN GULF STATES THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL NOT RULE OUT THE ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLES IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE FRONT PASSES BUT OVERALL WILL MAKE THIS A POPLESS FORECAST IN THE EARLY PERIODS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT AND COULD SEE CU/SC FORM AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD COVER. BEYOND SUNDAY... LOOKS LIKE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET. REINFORCING COLD PUNCH ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT DROPPING MINS INTO THE UPPER 20S ON MONDAY MORNING AND IMPACTING AGRICULTURE INTERESTS. TOO EARLY TO PUT WARNINGS OUT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WILL LET FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF AT THIS TIME. NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BROAD WESTERN TROUGH SLIDES EAST WITH SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DROPPING THROUGH IT AND CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST. FAST MOVING BUT RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY. GOOD FETCH OFF THE GULF AND MODERATLY STRONG VORT MAX SUGGEST A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN ZONES BUT WILL PUSH CHANCE OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY. DELGADO .GSP... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. sc