AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 420 AM MDT SUN OCT 23 2005 .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK TO MODERATE NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE...AS BROAD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION ACROSS NW ARIZONA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING INDICATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ATTM. AT THE SFC...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH BEST HEIGHT RISES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ATTM. ASSOCATIED BOUNDARY BACKED UP ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH NORTHCENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS ATTM. SATELLITE INDICATING VFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 5000 FEET ATTM. LOOKING UPSTREAM UNDER THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE CHILLY AND ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ATTM. TODAY...VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND BASE OF UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS KEEPING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO... AND WITH THE COLDEST AIR MAKING FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...HAVE CUT BACK TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. HAVE ALSO CUT POPS ACROSS THE REGION...AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LACKING. COLD AIR WILL NOT MAKE IT ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS...WITH RATHER NICE FALL DAY EXPECTED...AND ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE SW MTS FROM WEAKENING UPPER CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MIDWEST UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIR IN PLACE...WILL SEE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS DROPPING INTO INTO THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO. WARMING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING RIDGE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. -MW .LONG TERM... (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ...PATTERN CONTINUES ALTHOUGH FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE DIRTIER AFTER TUESDAY... IN GENERAL...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH THE SAME THROUGH THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK. A BLOCKING HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS VICINITY...AS THE BIG TROUGH IN THE EAST CONTINUES TO SPIN. THIS KEEPS SOUTHERN COLORADO VULNERABLE TO OCCASIONAL INFLUXES OF CANADIAN AIR SHOOTING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. AFTER TUESDAY...THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHOW SIGNS OF BREAK DOWN...AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STARTS TO UNDERCUT THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE ROCKIES...AND SWINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A TENTATIVE STANCE WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM AS DETAILS ARE PRETTY SKETCHY AT THIS POINT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW/MID GRADES POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST/ SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SYSTEM IS FROM THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES...AND NOT VERY DYNAMIC...SO NOT MUCH OF A COLD AIR POOL. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 9K. AFTER THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WAVE GOES BY...WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN TRIES TO REGAIN A STRONGHOLD OVER COLORADO. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DRIVEN SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BETWEEN THE LONGWAVE RIDGE/TROUGH...WITH ARRIVAL INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. MODELS SPITTING OUT A BIT OF LIGHT STRATIFORM PRECIP...BUT WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS YET...AS MODELS HAVE BEEN OVER ZEALOUS WITH PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THESE SURGES SO FAR. WEAK FRONT HANGS IN THERE FRIDAY. THEN...BY SATURDAY...PATTERN LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY)...AS AN INCOMING PACIFIC WAVE PLOWS THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST...WHILE THE EASTERN US UPPER LOW FILLS AND PULLS EAST. THIS LOOKS TO PRESENT A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WEST. MODELS HAVE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE COMING THROUGH WITH THE INCOMING WAVE. WON'T JUMP ON THIS YET AS SYSTEM DOESN'T LOOK ALL THAT DYNAMIC AND WOULD LIKELY BE WEAKENED A LOT PLOWING THROUGH THE RIDGE. BUT...LATER FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND MAY REQUIRE REVISION EVENTUALLY. LW && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1107 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 .UPDATE... AT 0245Z VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE LMK CWFA WAS CLEAR. THE SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN UPSTREAM HAD DISSIPATED...WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN HAVING FORMED OVER WESTERN INDIANA. LOOKING FURTHER UPSTREAM...CLOUDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ARE TRANSLATING ONLY VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SO...WILL UPDATE AGAIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CLOUDCOVER UNTIL UPSTREAM CLOUDS CAN MAKE IT IN HERE TOWARDS MORNING...AND WILL FURTHER REDUCE POPS. WILL ALSO KNOCK MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN RURAL AREAS AND WEST OF THE BLUE GRASS. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 811 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005) UPDATE... KEEPING AN EYE ON THINGS AND MAKING AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS/ZONES. MOST OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN HAS LEFT THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE LAST BATCH SURGING NORTHEAST OUT OF TENNESSEE THAT WILL BRING SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN UNTIL AROUND 1000 PM EDT IN THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. LOOKING TO THE WEST...AREA OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL BE IMPACTING THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES OF THE LMK CWFA BY 800 PM CDT. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION...WITH EVEN SOME STARS VISIBLE. SATELLITE PICTURES AROUND 00Z SHOWED SEVERAL COUNTIES FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA TO WARREN COUNTY COMPLETELY CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN HOWEVER AND THE SHOWERS TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY PROCEED ACROSS THE AREA. BECAUSE THE MAIN THRUST OF THE SHOWERS IS MORE SOUTHEAST THAN EAST IT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE BLUEGRASS SEES ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN OTHER THAN PASSING SPRINKLES AND THE BRIEF SHOT OF VERY LIGHT RAIN QUICKLY COMING UP OUT OF TENNESSEE AT 00Z. HAVE KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES THE SAME FOR NOW...WILL SEE HOW AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES AFFECT READINGS NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET. DID POPULATE 23Z GRIDS WITH LATEST SURFACE AND SKY DATA. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 245 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)... WELL...A CLASSIC LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLY AUTUMN DAY HAS DRAPED UPON THE CWA. LOW CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE CIGS <1000FT FOR MOST OF THE DAY THUS FAR. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS BARELY MOVING TO THE EAST OUT OF WRN KY. THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GO THRU SEVERAL TRANSITIONING PERIODS. 1ST THE LOW CLOUDS AND BACK EDGE OF FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP ST/SC CLOUDS IN THE EAST ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND RUC ANALYSIS BELIEVE THE DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z. MEANWHILE...SHARP H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH IN THE WEST BRINGING A NEW BATCH OF SCT SHRA. ALL AFTERNOON THE LSX RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SHRA FORMING AROUND STL...BUT MORE RECENTLY COLD SHRA FORMING EAST OF STL. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SLEET REPORTS IN THE SHOW ME STATE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS DISTINCT COLD CELLULAR (LOOKS LIKE THE NORTH SEA CLOUDS OF WINTER) BETWEEN STL AND P02. WITH H5 TEMPS OF -33 AT DVN AT 12Z MOVING S...COLD CORE CONVECTIVE SHRA WILL MOVE INTO KY BY EVENING IN THE WEST. HAVE 40 POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT SHRA TO BE THE MAIN PRECIP...AND WILL BRIEF THE SWING SHIFT TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY IP. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL SWING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHARP TROUGH BETWEEN 02-09Z AND WILL END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE ETA...NGM...AND GFS SOUNDINGS ARE ALL KEEPING LOW CLOUDS BELOW 850...SO WITH A NW WINDS OF 8-12MPH...AM INTRODUCING PATCHY DRIZZLE BACK INTO THE FORECAST THRU MIDDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPS GOES...THE KEY TO TONIGHTS MINIMUMS WILL BE THE IF THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF BKN SCT-CIGS BETWEEN THE CONVECTIVE SHRA AND THE THICK ST/SC (CURRENTLY OVER N MO). IF THERE IS EVEN A 1 HOUR BREAK...SOME OF THE WRN LOW LYING SPOTS COULD SEE MID 30S. OVERALL...I FOLLOWED THE FWC GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSELY. THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION FROM PAH AND JKL. LONG TERM (MON NGT THRU SUN)... MON NGT THRU WED NGT... WILL LEAVE DRY DURING THIS PD...BUT WATCH FOR TUE (ERN FA)FOR POSSIBLE SHWRS...WITH LOTS OF LOW CLDS AND TEMPS 10-15 DEGS BLO THE NORM. UPR LVL LO ACRS THE ERN OH VLY MON NGT SHIFTS EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE...HOWEVER COMPLEX UPR LVL PATTERN CONTS TUE AND WED AS ADDITIONAL SHRTWV ENERGY DROPS SWD FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST...RE-ESTABLISHING LNWV TROF ACRS THE OH VLY. MOST OF THE DEEPER MSTR/SHOWERS SHUD RESIDE TO THE N/E OF OUR FA DURG THIS PD...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OUR ERN FA FOR TUE FOR THE INSERTION OF SHOWERS WITH GFS MEANDERING COLD CORE LO NEAR ASHLAND. NAM FURTHER E WITH THIS FEATURE AND NOT AS LIBERAL WITH MSTR OVER OUR ERN FA. A SLOW MODERATING TEMP TREND SHUD BEGIN WED AS SFC FLO RELAXES WITH HIGH PRES UPSTREAM. THU THRU SUN... WILL CONT A DRY...COOLER THAN NORMAL FCST TIL LATE IN THIS PD...FAVORING THE GFS MODEL/ENSEMBLES. LNWV TROF POSITIONED FROM THE ERN OH VLY WWD INTO THE MIDWEST EVOLVES INTO AN UPR LO ACRS THE UPR OH VLY FRI WITH A SLOW EWD SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SAT. BY THEN...SIGNIFICANT HGT RISES SHUD LEAD TO GREATER MODERATING TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUN. AT THE SFC...HI PRES CENTERED ACRS THE LOWER MSP VLY REACHES THE TN/LOWER OH VLY THU...WHILE CANADIAN HI PRES SLIDES SEWD ACRS THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI INTO THE OH VLY BY THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MSTR SHUD CONT PLENTIFUL LEADING TO SCT TO BKN LOW CLDS THU THRU SAT WHICH IS COVERED WELL BY ONGOING FCST. SUNSHINE SHUD BE MOST PLENTIFUL SUN ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH SEASONAL VALUES...I.E., LWR/MID 60S. LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 811 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 .UPDATE... KEEPING AN EYE ON THINGS AND MAKING AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS/ZONES. MOST OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN HAS LEFT THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE LAST BATCH SURGING NORTHEAST OUT OF TENNESSEE THAT WILL BRING SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN UNTIL AROUND 1000 PM EDT IN THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. LOOKING TO THE WEST...AREA OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL BE IMPACTING THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES OF THE LMK CWFA BY 800 PM CDT. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION...WITH EVEN SOME STARS VISIBLE. SATELLITE PICTURES AROUND 00Z SHOWED SEVERAL COUNTIES FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA TO WARREN COUNTY COMPLETELY CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN HOWEVER AND THE SHOWERS TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY PROCEED ACROSS THE AREA. BECAUSE THE MAIN THRUST OF THE SHOWERS IS MORE SOUTHEAST THAN EAST IT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE BLUEGRASS SEES ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN OTHER THAN PASSING SPRINKLES AND THE BRIEF SHOT OF VERY LIGHT RAIN QUICKLY COMING UP OUT OF TENNESSEE AT 00Z. HAVE KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES THE SAME FOR NOW...WILL SEE HOW AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES AFFECT READINGS NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET. DID POPULATE 23Z GRIDS WITH LATEST SURFACE AND SKY DATA. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 245 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)... WELL...A CLASSIC LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLY AUTUMN DAY HAS DRAPED UPON THE CWA. LOW CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE CIGS <1000FT FOR MOST OF THE DAY THUS FAR. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS BARELY MOVING TO THE EAST OUT OF WRN KY. THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GO THRU SEVERAL TRANSITIONING PERIODS. 1ST THE LOW CLOUDS AND BACK EDGE OF FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP ST/SC CLOUDS IN THE EAST ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND RUC ANALYSIS BELIEVE THE DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z. MEANWHILE...SHARP H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH IN THE WEST BRINGING A NEW BATCH OF SCT SHRA. ALL AFTERNOON THE LSX RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SHRA FORMING AROUND STL...BUT MORE RECENTLY COLD SHRA FORMING EAST OF STL. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SLEET REPORTS IN THE SHOW ME STATE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS DISTINCT COLD CELLULAR (LOOKS LIKE THE NORTH SEA CLOUDS OF WINTER) BETWEEN STL AND P02. WITH H5 TEMPS OF -33 AT DVN AT 12Z MOVING S...COLD CORE CONVECTIVE SHRA WILL MOVE INTO KY BY EVENING IN THE WEST. HAVE 40 POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT SHRA TO BE THE MAIN PRECIP...AND WILL BRIEF THE SWING SHIFT TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY IP. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL SWING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHARP TROUGH BETWEEN 02-09Z AND WILL END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE ETA...NGM...AND GFS SOUNDINGS ARE ALL KEEPING LOW CLOUDS BELOW 850...SO WITH A NW WINDS OF 8-12MPH...AM INTRODUCING PATCHY DRIZZLE BACK INTO THE FORECAST THRU MIDDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPS GOES...THE KEY TO TONIGHTS MINIMUMS WILL BE THE IF THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF BKN SCT-CIGS BETWEEN THE CONVECTIVE SHRA AND THE THICK ST/SC (CURRENTLY OVER N MO). IF THERE IS EVEN A 1 HOUR BREAK...SOME OF THE WRN LOW LYING SPOTS COULD SEE MID 30S. OVERALL...I FOLLOWED THE FWC GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSELY. THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION FROM PAH AND JKL. LONG TERM (MON NGT THRU SUN)... MON NGT THRU WED NGT... WILL LEAVE DRY DURING THIS PD...BUT WATCH FOR TUE (ERN FA)FOR POSSIBLE SHWRS...WITH LOTS OF LOW CLDS AND TEMPS 10-15 DEGS BLO THE NORM. UPR LVL LO ACRS THE ERN OH VLY MON NGT SHIFTS EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE...HOWEVER COMPLEX UPR LVL PATTERN CONTS TUE AND WED AS ADDITIONAL SHRTWV ENERGY DROPS SWD FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST...RE-ESTABLISHING LNWV TROF ACRS THE OH VLY. MOST OF THE DEEPER MSTR/SHOWERS SHUD RESIDE TO THE N/E OF OUR FA DURG THIS PD...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OUR ERN FA FOR TUE FOR THE INSERTION OF SHOWERS WITH GFS MEANDERING COLD CORE LO NEAR ASHLAND. NAM FURTHER E WITH THIS FEATURE AND NOT AS LIBERAL WITH MSTR OVER OUR ERN FA. A SLOW MODERATING TEMP TREND SHUD BEGIN WED AS SFC FLO RELAXES WITH HIGH PRES UPSTREAM. THU THRU SUN... WILL CONT A DRY...COOLER THAN NORMAL FCST TIL LATE IN THIS PD...FAVORING THE GFS MODEL/ENSEMBLES. LNWV TROF POSITIONED FROM THE ERN OH VLY WWD INTO THE MIDWEST EVOLVES INTO AN UPR LO ACRS THE UPR OH VLY FRI WITH A SLOW EWD SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SAT. BY THEN...SIGNIFICANT HGT RISES SHUD LEAD TO GREATER MODERATING TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUN. AT THE SFC...HI PRES CENTERED ACRS THE LOWER MSP VLY REACHES THE TN/LOWER OH VLY THU...WHILE CANADIAN HI PRES SLIDES SEWD ACRS THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI INTO THE OH VLY BY THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MSTR SHUD CONT PLENTIFUL LEADING TO SCT TO BKN LOW CLDS THU THRU SAT WHICH IS COVERED WELL BY ONGOING FCST. SUNSHINE SHUD BE MOST PLENTIFUL SUN ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH SEASONAL VALUES...I.E., LWR/MID 60S. LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 245 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)... WELL...A CLASSIC LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLY AUTUMN DAY HAS DRAPED UPON THE CWA. LOW CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE CIGS <1000FT FOR MOST OF THE DAY THUS FAR. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS BARELY MOVING TO THE EAST OUT OF WRN KY. THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GO THRU SEVERAL TRANSITIONING PERIODS. 1ST THE LOW CLOUDS AND BACK EDGE OF FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP ST/SC CLOUDS IN THE EAST ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND RUC ANALYSIS BELIEVE THE DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z. MEANWHILE...SHARP H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH IN THE WEST BRINGING A NEW BATCH OF SCT SHRA. ALL AFTERNOON THE LSX RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SHRA FORMING AROUND STL...BUT MORE RECENTLY COLD SHRA FORMING EAST OF STL. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SLEET REPORTS IN THE SHOW ME STATE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS DISTINCT COLD CELLULAR (LOOKS LIKE THE NORTH SEA CLOUDS OF WINTER) BETWEEN STL AND P02. WITH H5 TEMPS OF -33 AT DVN AT 12Z MOVING S...COLD CORE CONVECTIVE SHRA WILL MOVE INTO KY BY EVENING IN THE WEST. HAVE 40 POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT SHRA TO BE THE MAIN PRECIP...AND WILL BRIEF THE SWING SHIFT TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY IP. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL SWING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHARP TROUGH BETWEEN 02-09Z AND WILL END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE ETA...NGM...AND GFS SOUNDINGS ARE ALL KEEPING LOW CLOUDS BELOW 850...SO WITH A NW WINDS OF 8-12MPH...AM INTRODUCING PATCHY DRIZZLE BACK INTO THE FORECAST THRU MIDDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPS GOES...THE KEY TO TONIGHTS MINIMUMS WILL BE THE IF THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF BKN SCT-CIGS BETWEEN THE CONVECTIVE SHRA AND THE THICK ST/SC (CURRENTLY OVER N MO). IF THERE IS EVEN A 1 HOUR BREAK...SOME OF THE WRN LOW LYING SPOTS COULD SEE MID 30S. OVERALL...I FOLLOWED THE FWC GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSELY. THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION FROM PAH AND JKL. .LONG TERM (MON NGT THRU SUN)... MON NGT THRU WED NGT... WILL LEAVE DRY DURING THIS PD...BUT WATCH FOR TUE (ERN FA)FOR POSSIBLE SHWRS...WITH LOTS OF LOW CLDS AND TEMPS 10-15 DEGS BLO THE NORM. UPR LVL LO ACRS THE ERN OH VLY MON NGT SHIFTS EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE...HOWEVER COMPLEX UPR LVL PATTERN CONTS TUE AND WED AS ADDITIONAL SHRTWV ENERGY DROPS SWD FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST...RE-ESTABLISHING LNWV TROF ACRS THE OH VLY. MOST OF THE DEEPER MSTR/SHOWERS SHUD RESIDE TO THE N/E OF OUR FA DURG THIS PD...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OUR ERN FA FOR TUE FOR THE INSERTION OF SHOWERS WITH GFS MEANDERING COLD CORE LO NEAR ASHLAND. NAM FURTHER E WITH THIS FEATURE AND NOT AS LIBERAL WITH MSTR OVER OUR ERN FA. A SLOW MODERATING TEMP TREND SHUD BEGIN WED AS SFC FLO RELAXES WITH HIGH PRES UPSTREAM. THU THRU SUN... WILL CONT A DRY...COOLER THAN NORMAL FCST TIL LATE IN THIS PD...FAVORING THE GFS MODEL/ENSEMBLES. LNWV TROF POSITIONED FROM THE ERN OH VLY WWD INTO THE MIDWEST EVOLVES INTO AN UPR LO ACRS THE UPR OH VLY FRI WITH A SLOW EWD SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SAT. BY THEN...SIGNIFICANT HGT RISES SHUD LEAD TO GREATER MODERATING TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUN. AT THE SFC...HI PRES CENTERED ACRS THE LOWER MSP VLY REACHES THE TN/LOWER OH VLY THU...WHILE CANADIAN HI PRES SLIDES SEWD ACRS THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI INTO THE OH VLY BY THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MSTR SHUD CONT PLENTIFUL LEADING TO SCT TO BKN LOW CLDS THU THRU SAT WHICH IS COVERED WELL BY ONGOING FCST. SUNSHINE SHUD BE MOST PLENTIFUL SUN ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH SEASONAL VALUES...I.E., LWR/MID 60S. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ JDG/DK ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1055 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING REFERENCES. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW RAIN OVR ERN KY ADVANCING EAST AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OVR THE MIDWEST. LATEST RUC40 AND GFS SUGGEST RAIN DEVELOPING QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. ATTM...WILL HOLD OFF IN MAKING ANY CHANGES TO FCST UNTIL ENTIRE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN. ROSA PREVIOUS AFD... .SHORT TERM... DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE OFF NEW ENGLND COAST ATTM. TIGHT P-GRAD IN NW FLOW OVR MD/ERN WV CNTYS RESPONSIBLE FOR ATMOS REMAINING CPLD. VWP FM KLWX 88D INDICATES 25 KT PRESENT AT 1000 FT...AND MOST OF THAT HAS BEEN ABLE TO MIX DWN...WHERE MIXING HAS OVERCOME SFC BASED NOCTURNAL INVSN. PROFILE BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR MIXING AFTR SUNRISE... HWVR LLJ AND ACCOMPANYING H5 S/WV PULLS NEWD. HV A FEW LWR 20S /KT/ GUST GRIDS...BUT ONLY BEFORE 18Z. OTRW...WK HIPRES OVR APPLCHNS ATTM WL MAKE A BRIEF VISIT TDA AS ITS STEERED EWD IN FAST UPR FLOW. THEN...ANTHR S/WV ROTATES THRU DEEPENING L/WV TROF...DRAWING GLFMEX MSTR NWD AND PLACING CWFA IN FAVORABLE PVA RGN. MDLS HVG SOME TROUBLE RESOLVING THIS SYSTM. CWFA APPRS TO BE CAUGHT BTWN IT AND WILMA....AND THUS DONT WANT TO SPREAD PCPN IN TOO QUICKLY. MORE ON THIS IN LONG TERM DSCN BLO. EFFECTS ON SENSIBLE WX...AFTR A DRY DAY WL SPREAD CHC SHRA TNGT...TO SHD-MRB LINE BY MIDNGT...AND TO CHO-JYO BY DAWN. AM ABT 10 PCT UNDER MOS GDNC. WENT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON CLDS...SCT TDA THEN BKN-OVC TNGT. BLENDED MOS TEMP GDNC LOOKED RSNBL...H8 TEMPS NEAR 4C SHUD MIX TO LWR-MID 60S. WINDOW FOR GOOD RADL COOLING SLIM THIS EVNG. WNDS WL DCPL...THEN CLDS SLIDE IN. MIN-T UPR 30S W...40 TO 45 E. && .AVIATION...GUSTY NW FLOW TDA. SFC GUSTS 20-25 KTS AFTR SUNRISE. HWVR...2 THSND FT WNDS NEAR 30 KTS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. LCL SFC GUSTS PRECLUDING WND SHEAR COMMENT...BUT WL AMD TO ADD IF GUSTS RELAX BUT VWP MAINTAINS. OTRW...VFR CONDS THRU 06Z. CIGS WL DVLP TNGT...NEAR 5K FT...BUT CAUSE NO RESTRICTIONS. && .MARINE...VWP FM KLWX 88D INDICATES 25 KT PRESENT AT 1000 FT...AND MOST OF THAT HAS BEEN ABLE TO MIX DWN OVR WATER. LLJ /30-40 KT/ WL PULL NEWD BY MIDDAY...BUT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WL SPPRT SCA THRU DAY. WL HOIST FLAGS FOR TDA. GRADIENT WL RELAX TNGT. THE PASSAGE OF WILMA WELL EAST OF THE MARINE AREA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WINDS. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... SYNOPSIS...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN EACH RUN...BUT HAVE DEVIATED AS A GROUP FROM YESTERDAY (PREVIOUSLY A STRONG VORTICITY AXIS PASSAGE WAS ANTICIPATED MONDAY...NOW IT WEAKENS AND WRAPS BACK UP TO AN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST). THE GFS FLIRTED CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST WITH WILMA FOR THE 12Z/18Z RUN...BUT THE 00Z RUN IS FURTHER EAST AGAIN. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE RELATES TO THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY BE INTERACTING OR INFLUENCING WILMA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WHILE SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS (SNOW WAS REPORTED AT SNOWSHOE BY RLX SATURDAY AFTERNOON). FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY MORNING DURING THE WORK WEEK...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OBSERVATIONS...500MB HEIGHT/ANOMALY PATTERN DURING THE PAST 5 DAYS INDICATES A DOMINATING TROUGH DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC...WEAKENING AS NORTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTS THE DEEPENING OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS A TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS EVIDENT OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS HURRICANE WILMA GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHILE AN UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 996MB CYCLONE NEAR CENTRAL LONG ISLAND...WITH ITS PRIMARY COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT TRAILS WEST TO A WEAK 1000MB CYCLONE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...THEN CONTINUES SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS. A TROUGH WAS NOTED IN THE LEE OF THE MID ATLANTIC APPALACHIANS. MODELS...THE 00Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN ALONG WITH THE 12Z UKMET/EUROPEAN WERE INSPECTED. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...INDICATING AN UPPER LOW WHICH LOSES STEAM AS IT ENTERS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY. DURING THE MIDWEEK...THE EARLIER PASSAGE OF WILMA WELL TO OUR EAST IS SHOWN TO WEAKEN THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EVIDENT IN THE MIDLEVELS THEREAFTER. MODELS HOWEVER ARE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT THAN THE SUITE LOOKED AT YESTERDAY. INSTEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG VORTICITY AXIS MONDAY...IT DIMINISH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS AFTER PULLING WILMA CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST AT 12Z AND 18Z...IS A BIT FURTHER EAST AT 00Z. IT APPEARS THE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...AND ITS INFLUENCE/INTERACTION WITH WILMA. ENSEMBLE DATA...12Z GFS 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES INDICATE A TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS (WITH GREAT CONSISTENCY) INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MEMBERS REMAINS HIGH AS THE CONSENSUS FORECAST MAINTAINS A WEAKENING TROUGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. GFS ENSEMBLE MOS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INDICATES MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD (WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MEMBERS). MEAN LOWS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA (LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S DOWNTOWN) WITH GREAT CONSISTENCY. MEAN POPS REMAIN IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGH VARIANCE NOTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. FORECAST RATIONALE...MODEL SUITE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...HOWEVER ARE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY WHEN THEY WERE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE DIFFICULTY SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND THE INTERACTION/INFLUENCING OF THE TROUGH WITH WILMA. WHILE THE GFS HAD MOVED WILMA CLOSER TO THE COAST AT 12Z/18Z...THE 00Z RUN IS FURTHER EAST. DONT SUSPECT PRECIPITATION FROM THE CIRCULATION OF WILMA WOULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA...AS THERE IS A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET IMPACTING BOTH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SYSTEM SPEED. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WITHIN THE MODELS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE TROUGH CHARACTERISTICS. YESTERDAY A MAIN VORTICITY LOBE WAS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. TODAYS VERSION INDICATES THIS LOBE WILL LOSE ITS ENERGY AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE UPPER LOW RECENTERS FURTHER WEST. PERHAPS THIS IS DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH WILMA...OR POSSIBLY THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT (BLOCKING UPSTREAM) INITIATES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. DECIDED NOT TO SWING THE FORECAST IN THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD (3RD THROUGH 5TH PERIODS) DUE TO THE LACK OF FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTH/POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES...AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE REGION. THANKS FOR COLLABORATION PBZ/RLX/CTP/PHI! WILMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE WEAKENING TROUGH STILL DOMINATING THE GREAT LAKES (AND PROHIBITING THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE FROM COMPLETELY BUILDING INTO THE REGION). THIS FORECAST WAS PREPARED WITH THE GUIDANCE OF TPC ADVISORY NUMBER 31. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE LATEST FORECAST. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>533 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ534>537 FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION FORECASTER...HTS LONG TERM FORECASTER...ROGOWSKI md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1115 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 .UPDATE...SFC/RADAR AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING THAT -2C TO -3C H8 AIR IN 050 NE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE LAKES WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE STILL STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER. A FEW HOLES HAD DEVELOPED IN THE OVERCAST...AND SOME LOCALES HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S. EXPECT ANY HOLES TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS THE SKY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE MVFR (3KFT) WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RIGHT OFF LAKE HURON...WHERE NUMEROUS 2500FT DECKS PERSISTED. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN BANDS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING SINCE 1030 PM...AS DEEPER MOISTURE AROUND PERIPHERY OF BROAD SCALE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY WORKS SOUTH. COULD STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NE FLOW REGIMES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...FEEL AS THOUGH THE ACTIVITY AS A WHOLE WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE SHOWERS HAD AT LEAST SOME SORT OF DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THEM...AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY BE LOST. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT (DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES) AND HAVE KEPT UP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM PRESQUE ISLE SOUTHWARD FOR PERSISTENT 10-20KT WINDS AND WAVES OF 3-5 FEET. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE...AS FORECAST WAS PRETTY SOLID. SMD && .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 DISCUSSION...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RESULTING FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR NY AND 500 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL. THIS PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONVERGENT FLOW COUPLED WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN. MAIN LIMITATION TO PRECIP PRODUCTION IS A LACK OF FOCUS/LIFT AS UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE. LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN REMAINS OUT OF THE NE. OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY HAS ENHANCED PRECIP ACROSS FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN GENERATED BY 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -5 TO -6 C RIDING OVER LAKE HURON SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING AROUND +12 C (I.E DELTA T'S OF AROUND 18 C). ERN UPR IS DRY BUT CLOUDY...AS NE FLOW TARGETS LOCATIONS WEST OF CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTY IN UPPER MICHIGAN FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP. FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL FOCUS ON CHANCES OF PRECIP AS THE UPPER LOW VERY SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TO OHIO. TONIGHT...500 MB LOW CENTER WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SRN INDIANA THIS EVENING...REACHING FAR SW OHIO BY DAYBREAK. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MICHIGAN...BUT MAJORITY OF UPPER SUPPORT WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. DECREASE IN DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT OF THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AS ATMOSPHERE DRIES ABOVE 700 MB THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. REMAINING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL REACH THE -10 C ISOTHERM...SO EXPECT PRECIP PRODUCTION WILL CONTINUE...BUT PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY AROUND -5 C...MAINTAINING LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN...TARGETING FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN FOR HIGHEST POPS. ERN UPR MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER TOO DEEP (AROUND 2-3 KFT) FOR ANY CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN...SO WILL STICK WITH ONLY LIQUID PRECIP. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL IN TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 IN NRN LWR MICHIGAN. MONDAY...UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NE TO CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE AFTERNOON...THUS VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK. MOISTURE WILL STILL JUST BARELY REACH THE -10 C...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS. 850 MB TEMPS WILL HOLD AROUND -5 C...KEEPING LAKE HURON ENHANCEMENT IN THE FORECAST PICTURE. WILL EXTEND CHANCE POPS FOR NRN LWR MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF I 75 WILL ONLY SEE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TARGET BEST POPS IN NE LWR MICHIGAN ZONES. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN PEAK IN THE 40S. LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE CESSATION OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE 500 MB LOW. MONDAY NIGHT...THE 500 MB LOW MOVES TO THE EAST SLOWLY OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND IT. THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH DROPS DOWN TO AROUND 10% IN E UPPER. THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE MOISTURE AROUND THE -10C LEVEL CUTTING OFF THE PRECIPITATION. TUESDAY...WITH THE 500 MB LOW STILL PARTIALLY OVER THE REGION NE LOWER, WILL EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORE LINE. TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THE EVENING SHOULD BE DRY AS WE GET CAUGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS. OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE IN THE 500-700 LAYER INCREASES AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. THE GFS MOISTURE IS PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE, THE NAM IS BETTER, SO HAVE PUT IN THE CHANCE POPS IN NW LOWER AND W PART OF CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES. WITH THE 850 TEMPERATURES AND THE SFC TEMPERATURES -6C AND BELOW FREEZING BY THE 12Z, EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. THIS CONTINUES INTO THE DAY AS THE TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. BY 00Z THE NAM/ETA HAS TEMPERATURES AROUND -3C (850 MB), WHILE THE GFS HAS -6C STILL. SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS IN THE HIGHLANDS AND IN E UPPER. EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LOOKING AT THE MODELS FOR THE LONG RANGE, THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT IN THAT THEY ALL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE LATER PERIODS. THIS WOULD SIGNIFY A CHANGE COMING DOWN THE ROAD. THE SFC FEATURES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS, THOUGH, ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC HIGH SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE EAST COAST. THE 500 MB PATTERN, WHERE THE SPAGHETTI SPREAD IS SO BIG, IS HINTING AT SOME SORT OF CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS MAKES AN UNEASILY DRY FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THE 500 MB LOW MOVES IN AS THE GFS, GEM, AND NOGAPS LOOK LIKE, THEN THERE COULD BE SHOWERS, ISOLATED OR SCATTERED. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT AND IT SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER, THEN IT WILL BE DRY. WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AS IT GOES WITH THIS QUASI-DRY FORECAST. SO THE FORECAST WILL LOOK LIKE THIS...THURSDAY, THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH AND THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO STAY IN PLACE. MEANWHILE AT 500 MB, THE SHORTWAVE CUTS OFF AND SITS OVER THE REGION. SO THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ADDING THEM UNTIL THE NEXT RUN OR TWO. LUTZ && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1030 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 .UPDATE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER MI FIRMLY UNDER NRLY FLOW AS A RESULT OF SHARP RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO SCNTRL CANADA AND DEEP TROF EXTENDING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST PER 00Z CWPL/KGRB/KAPX SOUNDINGS. IN FACT...CWPL SOUNDING WHICH IS DIRECTLY UPSTREAM OF FCST AREA SHOWS NEAR SATURATION TO 850MB. MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS EVIDENT IN CLOUD BASES WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1-3KFT RANGE FROM NRN UPPER MI N AND NE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO. SOME OBS N AND NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR INDICATE CIGS EVEN BLO 1KFT. 00Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS SUGGEST 850MB TEMPS ARE -3 TO -4C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH IS ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN. HOWEVER...THE VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS ALLOWING FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF LAKE EFFECT -SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI AS WATER TEMPS ARE 2-4C WARMER THAN MIDLAKE AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. KDLH RADAR ALSO INDICATES NUMEROUS -SHRA STREAMING INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BEING MAXIMIZED. EXPECT CURRENT LAKE EFFECT REGIME TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS LITTLE/NO CHANGE IN OVERLAKE INSTABILITY OR IN MOISTURE PROFILE WILL OCCUR. ALSO...NO SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EVIDENT DIRECTLY UPSTREAM TO ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT. SHORTWAVE OVER SW HUDSON BAY IS DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA...BUT ITS FORCING WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL MID TO LATE MON MORNING INTO THE AFTN. SO...WHAT YOU SEE NOW IS BASICALLY WHAT YOU SHOULD SEE THRU SUNRISE. THERE SHOULD BE A TREND TOWARD SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE AND PROBABLY BETTER BAND ORGANIZATION OF -SHRA AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS SOME DURING THE NIGHT. EXPECT MAX COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION DURING THE DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP MIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. NCNTRL UPPER MI WILL BE FOCUS OF MOST WIDESPREAD -SHRA DUE TO WARMER WATER OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND VERY FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. FAR W WILL ALSO SEE NUMEROUS -SHRA WITH AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE PERSISTING THERE. KEWEENAW IS NOT FAVORED BY NNE WIND DIRECTION...SO SCT COVERAGE IS ON TRACK THERE. TO THE S...LAKE EFFECT -SHRA STREAMING DOWN THE BAY OF GREEN BAY MAY SLIP INTO MENOMINEE COUNTY DURING THE NIGHT AS 950MB WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY PER RUC. OTHERWISE... EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA/SCT SPRINKLES AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT OFF SUPERIOR. AS FOR SNOW POTENTIAL...IT LOOKS MINIMAL AS FREEZING LEVEL REMAINS NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY BTWN 1.5KFT AND 2KFT PER 18Z GFS/NAM AND 00Z RUC. ALSO...HAVE NOT SEEN ANY OBS OF -SN N OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. A MIX WITH SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS A BIT DURING THE NIGHT...BUT SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY. WILL ONLY MENTION A CHC OF -SHSN WITH NUMEROUS -SHRA IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN RATHER THAN THE GOING FCST OF NUMEROUS -SHRA/-SHSN. && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT. WV LOOP AND RAOBS POINT OUT THE TWO MAIN UPR LEVEL FEATURES FOR THIS WEEKS WEATHER ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES. FIRST FEATURE IS LARGE W TO E ORIENTED TROUGH FM MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. NOT MUCH LEFT OF DEFORMATION BAND ON N EDGE OF TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO UPR MI YESTERDAY. COOLER AIR IS FILTERING INTO GREAT LAKES WITH H85 TEMPS 0 TO -4C. THIS IS HELPING TO SPUR ON SOME LK EFFECT PCPN DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES INCLUDING HERE IN WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. OTHER MAIN FEATURE IN UPR LEVELS IS NEGATIVE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERN WITH TROUGH OVR AK AND GULF OF AK AND RIDGE FM SW CONUS INTO W CANADA. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE E CONUS UPR TROUGH AND CNTRL CONUS RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK BEFORE BEGINNING TO UNFOLD TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND. 15Z-18Z TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FM KSAW SHOWED INVERSION HEIGHT BTWN H85-H8 WITH TEMPS AT THOSE LEVELS AROUND -6C. UPSTREAM CWPL 12Z SOUNDING WAS SIMILAR AND THIS IS THE AIRMASS THAT IS FLOWING ACROSS MUCH OF GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN. IN FACT...VIS SAT SHOWS WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR CLOUD LAYER WITH EMBEDDED LOWER LAYERS EXTEND WELL UP INTO NORTHERN CANADA. ALTHOUGH WHATS LEFT OF DEFORMATION BAND INTO UPR LAKES DOES DEPART TONIGHT...EXPECT OVER WATER INSTABILITY (SFC-H85 DLT T/S STEADY AROUND +13C) AND PERSISTENT DEEP NE FLOW TO KEEP LK PCPN GOING THROUGH MON AM IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OVR WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS. MAY SEE PCPN TAPER OFF ON EDGES OF S AND E DUE TO THE DEPARTING DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE FOCUSING IN CNTRL ZONES. LIKE LAST NIGHT EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL ONLY INTO MID 30S. DID SEE SOME LGT SNOW GRAINS/GRAUPEL TRY TO MIX IN EARLIER...SO AS WE COOL JUST A BIT IN BLYR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF A MIX OF SNOW WITH THE RAIN OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST HALF. AGL FREEZING LEVELS BTWN 1000-1500 FT FM 12Z GFS SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MIXING IN. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUM DUE TO LGT QPF AND MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS. FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE MAIN TROUGH OVR THE E CONUS COMES INTO THE UPR LAKES LATER MON AFTN. GFS/NAM/UKMET/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WAVE AND IMPACT IT HAS ON CWA. POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND H85-H5/H7-H3 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AFFECTS THE CWA IN THE AFTN. BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY IN W/C ZONES WHERE FLOW UPSLOPES OFF LK SUPERIOR. SHORTWAVE NEVER IMPACTS E ZONES AND NE FLOW REMAINS UNFAVORABLE THERE FOR ANY LK PCPN SO KEPT THE DRY FCST EAST OF NRN LUCE COUNTY TOWARD MANISTIQUE. SOME ICE CRYSTALS PRESENT AS SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS IN SATURATED LAYER FALLING BLO -10C...SO WITH FREEZING LEVELS REMAINING SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WOULD EXPECT SOME SNOW TO MIX IN OVR WEST HALF HIGHER TERRAIN. STILL...FAIRLY WARM BLYR TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMS TO WELL UNDER AN INCH. DOWNPLAYED PCPN ON TUE AS UPR LAKES IS BTWN SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES BY MON NIGHT AND STRONGER WAVE THAT DIGS INTO THE TROUGH LATER TUE NIGHT. SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOWN ON MOST GUIDANCE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING TO AROUND H85. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOW (LWR 40S) BUT OVERALL DRYING SHOULD KEEP MOST PCPN LOCKED IN OVR NCNTRL AREAS WITH N FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR. TUE NIGHT INTO WED...STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO WESTERN PORTION OF THE UPR LAKES. LOOKING AT THE DYNAMICS (2D FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) AND DEEPER MOISTURE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WOULD JUST GRAZE THE CWA OVR THE WEST. BLYR WINDS BACK TO THE W DIRECTION SO WINDS ARE NOT ONSHORE INITIALLY WHEN WAVE APPROACHES SO THIS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY LK ENHANCEMENT. INVERSION HEIGHTS DO RISE AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AM HAVE PUSHED POPS TO LIKELY IN NE FLOW AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS IN BLYR AND FREEZING LEVELS BLO 1000FT AGL SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SNOW FOR MOST AREAS BY THAT TIME...LACK OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT SEEMS TO PROHIBIT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS. IF THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TO THE EAST EVEN JUST A LITTLE THEN THAT BECOMES MUCH MORE OF A POSSIBILITY. ATTM WITH THIS SETUP WOULD EXPECT MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO VERY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING IN THE FAVORED N/NE UPSLOPE AREAS OF WEST HALF OF CWA. CHANCE POPS LINGER INTO WED AFTN BUT INCREASING HEIGHT RISES PER GFS/UKMET WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL LK EFFECT PCPN AFTER TROUGH PASSES WED MORNING. EXTENDED (THU THROUGH SUN)...SOLID AGREEMENT FROM 00Z/06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET WITH TRANSITIONING FROM ROCKIES/CNTRL CONUS RIDGE AND E CONUS TROUGH PATTERN TO MORE ZONAL/PACIFIC TYPE FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS UPR LAKES REGION. SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES OVR UPR MI/N WI FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT. MAY BE LINGERING LGT PCPN OFF LK SUPERIOR FRI AM AS E/NE FLOW HANGS ON AS 06Z DGEX SHOWS BUT THINK COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY SMALL SO LEFT OUT FOR NOW. LGT WINDS AND DRY AIR FRI NIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO TEMPS MOST AREAS BLO FZG. ONLY CAVEOT IS HOW MUCH LOW CLOUD LINGERS. THIS IS SOMEWHAT A CONCERN AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE STRONG H85 WARM ADVECTION (00Z SAT H85 TEMP OFF ECMWF IS +8C). THIS WOULD INDICATE THERE COULD BE A SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS COOLER AIR BLO H85 IS SLOWER TO DEPART. WENT CONSERVATIVE FOR MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND AS A RESULT BUT STILL SHOULD SEE RETURN TO 50S FOR HIGHS. GFS/CANADIAN INDICATE SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FOR SUN WHILE THE ECMWF AND HPC PROGS KEEP HIGH PRES IN CONTROL LONGER. KEPT RAIN OUT FOR SUN ATTM PREFERRING A SLOWER SOLN LIKE THE 06Z DGEX. MAY HAVE TO ADD RAIN EVENTUALLY FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON PERIODS. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE SIG RAIN PROUDUCER AS SYSTEM IS QUICK MOVING AND OVERALL LACKING ANY GULF MOISTURE CONNECTION. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ROLFSON (UPDATE) JLA (PREV DISCUSSION) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1050 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SHOWER COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT WEATHER...14Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 12Z RAOBS SHOWED AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NW IOWA WITH A GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD WITHIN THE TROUGH WITH SOUNDINGS FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO GAYLORD...PICKLE LAKE ONTARIO AND MOOSONEE ONTARIO ALL BETWEEN -2 AND -4C. HOWEVER...THESE TEMPS HAVE BEEN COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE PLENTY OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR (WHERE WATER TEMPS ARE AROUND 9C). THESE RAIN SHOWERS SHOWED UP ON THE KMQT RADAR AROUND 730 AM AND DUE TO NE WINDS...THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN IMPACTING NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME OF THE REFLECTIVITIES HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE TOO WITH MAXES OFF OF THE COMPOSITE ANYWHERE FROM 45 TO 55 DBZ. ONE OF THESE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS OUR OFFICE AND SOME SLEET FELL. 12Z RUC SOUNDING FOR OUR OFFICE SHOWED A FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 900MB. A LOT OF THIS LAKE EFFECT IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE...NOTED BY SATURATION FROM THE SURFACE TO 810MB ON THE 12Z PICKLE LAKE ONTARIO SOUNDING AND ALSO THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITH LOW CEILINGS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ONTARIO. LATEST 14Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM SAW WAS MISSING DATA BELOW 850MB...BUT FROM 850-800MB...IT WAS SATURATED TOO. VAD WIND PROFILE AS OF 1430Z SHOWED UNIDIRECTIONAL NE FROM 2000-7000FT...ALSO FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT. 12Z RUC 950MB DIVERGENCE FIELD HAS HAD A GOOD REPRESENTATION ON THE CURRENT LAKE EFFECT SO FAR THIS MORNING AND THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW FOR FORECAST. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT BACKING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...LAKE EFFECT BANDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN ONTONAGON AND GOGEBIC COUNTIES...RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS THERE. SINCE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NE...THE KEWEENAW IS NOT AS FAVORED SO KEPT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING. FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OFF OF NORTHERN ONTARIO. AS MENTIONED IN THE CURRENT WEATHER DISCUSSION...SLEET OR GRAUPEL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS GIVEN THE FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 900MB. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.P....STRAY SHOWERS COMING OFF OF SUPERIOR MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT RAIN (AS INDICATED BY MORNING OBS FROM IMT) BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. FINALLY TOWARDS MANISTIQUE AND NEWBERRY...NORTHEAST WINDS COME OFF OF ONTARIO HERE SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE COOL 850MB TEMPS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH TODAY. GOING FORECAST HIGHS LOOK GOOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... NAM FORECASTING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK FROM IA THIS MORNING TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MON MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH TUE. UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NORTH AND CWA WILL BE ON BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WHATEVER SHORTWAVES HEAD DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE CWA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IS NW OF HUDSON BAY AND SHOWS UP AS DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR AND THIS SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE CWA MON NIGHT. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WEAKEST WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS WELL IT SHOULD SINCE ITS DOMAIN STOPS AT 60N AND THE SHORTWAVE IS NORTH OF THERE. THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE THIS LIMITATION AND WOULD EXPECT IT TO HANDLE THIS SHORTWAVE BETTER. GFS THEN SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR TUE NIGHT WITH STRONG 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CWA WHILE THE NAM IS AGAIN MUCH WEAKER WITH IT. GFS SHOWS COLDER AIR AT 850 MB OF -4C TO -6C AIR COMING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THOSE PERIODS AND THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO GIVE LAKE EFFECT PCPN WITH LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T AROUND 15C WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES OF 8C-11C. FLOW IS NORTHEAST AT THAT TIME...SO NE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT BELTS WOULD BE FAVORED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MARQUETTE AND BARAGA COUNTIES. TOUGH TO SAY AT THIS POINT HOW MUCH SNOW THERE WOULD BE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR THERE IS AND HOW STRONG THE SHORTWAVES ARE...BUT WILL PUT SOME LIKELY POPS IN WHERE THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND LONGEST FETCH IS FAVORED. COULD BE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW WITH THESE SHORTWAVES AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR TODAY...CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE STARTS TO PULL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THOUGH. NAM SHOWS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING ON THE I280-I290 SURFACES TODAY WITH LIFT AROUND 800 MB...AND THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO GET DRIZZLE AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. WILL PULL ALL MENTION OF SNOW FOR TODAY EVEN THOUGH BOTH GFS AND NAM FORECAST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS TO BE DROPPING TO AROUND 1305 METERS AND LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...FREEZING LEVELS DROP DOWN TO 1000-1500 FEET AGL...WHICH STILL SEEMS TO HIGH TO GET SNOW TO THE SFC. ALSO...THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS 1305 METER RULE SEEMS TO NOT WORK WELL AT THE BEGINNING AND ENDING OF THE SNOW SEASON AND WE ARE IN THE BEGINNING OF THE SNOW SEASON NOW. WILL KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID AT THIS POINT FOR TODAY. CUT POPS BACK TO CHANCE FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IN THE EAST WHERE THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE TODAY. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT KEPT THE EAST DRY UNTIL TUE NIGHT AS DRY NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND LAKE EFFECT PCPN IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ERN SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES WITH THAT WIND DIRECTION. FOR TEMPERATURES...DID NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL AND LITTLE DIURNAL RANGES. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AJ (SHORT-TERM) MICHELS (PREV DISCUSSION) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1057 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... WEAK SFC/UPPER RIDGING AND A DRYING WNW SFC FLOW WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF...1 DAY BREAK BETWEEN SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENTS TO HELP SALVAGE THIS LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A DEEP (EARLY WINTER-LIKE) UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY DIGGING SE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL MOVE EAST AND SPREAD A BLOSSOMING...BAROCLINIC LEAF AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA BY MID MORNING MONDAY. TIMING OF THE PRECIP ONSET IS A LITTLE TRICKY...AND MODELS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE NE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND SEEM TO LACK A BIT OF STRUCTURE RESOLVING THE LIGHTER RAIN/QPF EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ALONG A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH JUST SE OF THE LAKE ERIE SHORE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATEST RUC MODEL APPEARS TO BEST DEPICT THIS DETAIL OF THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT. RAISED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY (TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL) FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT FROM KUNV AND KDUJ SOUTH AND WEST) AS MODERATELY STRONG LIFT IN THE I285-290K THETA CHANNEL DEVELOPS. 00Z MREF CONSENSUS 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM IS EAST OF OUR CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT WHICH UNDER INCREASING NE LLVL FLOW WITHIN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT WOULD MEAN RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP ACROSS THE WRN MTNS WHERE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL BE AOB 538 DAM. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 311 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY)... IMPROVING CONDS IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT AN OVERALL MESSY WEATHER WEEK IN STORE FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. VIGOROUS WAVE MOVING NEWD OFF SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS CENTRAL PA AT PRESENT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS COOLING TO ZERO TO MINUS 2C ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AND SFC TEMPS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 40S. SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS INCREASING TO 6500 FEET TODAY WILL MEAN SCT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL WEST AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST. LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... NEXT WAVE ROTATING AROUND MIDWESTERN CUTOFF TO SPREAD MORE CLOUDS AND SHOUWERS INTO WESTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT. FOR NOW AM EXPECTING SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT SHOULD MORE BREAKS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...A FROST ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL BE NECESSARY. FOR NOW WILL CARRY TEMP RANGES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM REMAINS INTERACTION BETWEEN H5 CUTOFF AND WILMA TRACKING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MON/TUE. CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS AND SREFS KEEP MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EAST OF MY AREA...BUT DO EXPECT ANOTHER INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BY LATER MON-TUE AS DEEP EASTERLY FETCH INCREASES NORTH OF WILMA'S CIRCULATION (AND WELL SOUTH OF LARGE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE). BEYOND TUESDAY...COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON NORTHWEST WINDS AND BRINGS FIRST WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CENTRAL PA. UNSETTLED AND COOL WX TO CONT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND. AVIATION...(12Z SUN-12Z MON) GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 18 HRS AS STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. POST STORM STRATO CU CLOUD DECK WILL DOMINATE THE PD BUT WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE WRN MTN TERMINALS. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED AFTER 03Z MONDAY IN LIGHT RAIN SPREADING WEST TO EAST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LAMBERT pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 803 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 .UPDATE... BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY EXTENDED FROM NEAR KABI TO SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX AT 755 PM AND WAS MOVING ESE AT 25 KTS. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS SEEMED TO CORRELATE WELL WITH FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 700 MB ON LATEST RUC. RADAR DEPICTION OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF SURFACE WEATHER GIVEN HIGH CLOUD BASES AND DRYING SUBCLOUD LAYER. A FEW SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AS FAR SOUTH AS WACO...PALESTINE...AND CORSICANA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. CLEARING TREND WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH ALL BUT TEMPLE AND KILLEEN AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE MONDAY. UPDATED ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. MAY SEND ONE MORE UPDATED PACKAGE BEFORE 10 PM TO MAKE A FEW MORE FIRST PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS. /09 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005/ DISCUSSION... WE WILL KEEP SOME SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...AS THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VERTICAL MOTIONS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY BELOW MAV MOS VALUES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS WE DID 24 HOURS AGO. DOWN THE ROAD...A WEAK RAIN SITUATION MAY SET UP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THURSDAY...AS A DIFLUENT TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. DYNAMICS ARE PRETTY GOOD WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...WE HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT SUNDAY. WE HAVE GONE WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AT THIS JUNCTURE. IF THIS PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE MODELS...SOME LOW POPS WILL BE ADDED IN LATER FORECASTS. #26 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ tx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tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1221 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS SENT. PCPN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED. TEMPS HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING...CHANGING WHATS LEFT OF PCPN OVER TO JUST RAIN IN MOST AREAS...THUS SNOW ADVISORY DROPPED. EXPECT ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN THIS PM...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES OVER THE HIR ELEVATIONS...BUT NO ADDED ACCUMULATION. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 341 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005) SYNOPSIS... STORM SYS TO MOVE UP ACRS ERN NEW ENG TODAY...THEN A SERIES OF TROFS TO BASICALLY BE ROTATING ACRS THE FA TONITE THRU TUE. WHATEVER REMAINS OF WILMA MAY BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE NE USA BY TUE... HOPEFULLY WELL OFFSHORE THOUGH. SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... 00-03Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE U30S-M40S TODAY WITH N-NE SFC WINDS AT 5-15 KTS. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.4-1" TODAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND GPS IPW SITES. RUC SHOWS SKIES TO BE CLDY ACRS THE FA WITH PCPN (MOSTLY RAIN IN THE VLYS AND AT LEAST A MIX WITH SN IN THE HIR TRRN) ALL DAY TODAY. BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS PLENTY OF PCPN ACRS THE FA ATTM. LAPS DATA AND SFC OBS SHOW SOME SN A GOOD BET ATTM ACRS MUCH OF THE HIR TRRN. WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU TUE. LOW-LVL MSTR TO CONT TO AFFECT THE FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON MON AFTERNOON AND NITE. MID-LVL MSTR TO CONT TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY AND MUCH OF TONITE...WITH SOME MID-LVL MSTR ACRS THE FA ON MON NITE AND TUE. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.5-0.75" TONITE THRU TUE. THE GOING FCST OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD. FEEL THAT THE HIR TRRN MAY BE IN FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF AT LEAST A MIXTURE AND LIQUID AND SOLID PCPN...IF NOT OUTRIGHT -SN THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. WILL HANG ONTO MOSTLY LIKELY POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE FA FOR TONITE THRU MON NITE AND CHC POPS FOR TUE. WOULD HAVE BEEN MORE COMFORTABLE WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY UP ACRS POTIONS OF THE HIR TRRN (DUE TO THE TIME OF YR AND THE POSSIBLE WIDE RANGE OF P-TYPES)...BUT IN ORDER TO NOT CAUSE ANY FURTHER CONFUSION WILL JUST RETAIN THE GOING SN ADVISORY ACRS THE ZONES THAT IT CURRENTLY IS UP FOR THRU THE REST OF TODAY. ANY SN THAT FALLS ACRS THE HIR TRRN THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (UNTIL MAYBE MON NITE/TUE?) LOOKS TO BE OF THE NUISANCE TYPE. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO OUR GOING TEMP/WIND GRIDS ACRS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO TIME CONSTRAINTS...EXCEPT TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT ON TUE. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW. WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY 4 AM. AVIATION... MAIN PCPN EXITING FM W TO E ACRS FA ARD/AFT 12Z WITH PRIMARILY ELEVATIONS ABV 1500 FEET AND ISOLD LWR LOCATIONS LIKE KSLK/KMPV WITNESSING -SN/-SNRA WITH -SHRA/-SHRASN AFT 12Z. IFR CONDS DUE TO CIGS LKLY THRU PERIOD AT ALL SITES WITH LIFR AT KSLK/KMPV AT TIMES. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 912 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING FAR SW VA SHOULD DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS REACHING THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MORNING. HOWEVER ACTUAL 85H BOUNDARY REPRESENTING ONSET OF GOOD CAA WILL LAG BACK A BIT AND LIKELY HANG UP A BIT ACROSS THE RIDGES MONDAY BEFORE STRONG S/W PIVOTS EASTWARD. EXPECT BEST LIFT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING TO OCCUR OVER THE FAR WEST ALONG THE 85H FRONT AND IN REGION OF INCREASING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF UPPER VORT ON MONDAY. MOST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RUC/WRF POINTING TO A SLOWER EASTWARD PUSH OF SHRA OVERNIGHT ESPCLY GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT TO OVERCOME PER 00Z RAOBS AND PARALLEL SWLY UPPER FLOW. THIS ALSO IN LINE WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS SO PLAN TO SLOW/LOWER POPS OVER THE WEST A CAT OR SO TNGT AND REMOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE EVEN CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ADVECT IN. LATEST NAM/GFS ALSO SHOW 85H 0C LINE SKIRTING THE WESTERN SLOPES BY DAYBREAK WITH BEST CAA DURING MONDAY. FREEZING LEVELS SUGGEST SOME MIX POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500 LATE...AND ESPCLY SE WVA ELEVATIONS MONDAY WHERE BEST PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR N OF DRY SLOT TO THE SW. THUS WILL INCLUDE A -SHSN/-SN MENTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO MONDAY AS WELL ALTHO OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR RATHER LIGHT ESPCLY SOUTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS LOOKING OK GIVEN CAA LATE OVER THE WEST...AND DECENT RAD COOLING EARLY OUT EAST BEFORE THE CLOUD SHIELD ARRIVES. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 729 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005) AVIATION... COLD FRONT JUST OFF TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO QUICKLY INCREASE AT BLF/LWB THIS EVENING AND THEN LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AT ROA BY MIDNIGHT AND LYH/DAN LATE. COLUMN SHOULD MOISTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW -SHRA SE WVA SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR/OCNL IFR VSBYS 08-12Z. WILL HOLD OFF SHRA MENTION ROA UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK AND LYH AFTER 12Z WITH DAN POSSIBLY REMAINING DRY UNTIL MIDDAY OR LATER. EXPECT MOST SITES TO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS OR VSBYS MON ALTHO DAN MAY STAY VFR PENDING SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF DEEP RH. RAINFALL LOOKS TO TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING MON AFTERNOON WITH INCLUSION OF A BRIEF -SHSN MIX BLF BEFORE ENDING AS DEEPER CAA ARRIVES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 305 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE BEGINNINGS OF A BAROCLINIC LEAF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A CLOSED LOW DIGGING OVER IOWA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS...QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC FORCING AND UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO BACK BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN. 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES VERSUS THE 06Z RUNS SO WILL ADJUST FORECAST TO HOLD THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND 06Z IN THE WEST AND AFT 09Z EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EVEN IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEREFORE HAVE REMOVE SNOW FOR TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE RAIN ARRIVES...AREAS HAVING RAIN BY SUNRISE WILL NOT LIKELY SEE ANY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD SEE TEMPS FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN SECTIONS WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE RAIN AND MAY SEE SOME TEMPS IN THE 50S BEFORE THE RAIN BEGINS. MID TERM (MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING)... UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. A SECOND SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE CLOSED LOW IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN GENERALLY BRINGS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA WITH BEST POPS IN SE WV. HOWEVER...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WILMA WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST. WILMA COULD AND WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER BY PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITING PRECIPITATION. TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILMA MOVES ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST AND WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW TO BRING BACK SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND PARTICULARLY WESTERN SLOPES OF SE WV. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND MINUS 2C AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AROUND 1305 M. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET WILL LIKELY SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW AND POSSIBLY ALL SNOW. GROUND RELATIVELY WARM AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFIDED TO GRASSY SURFACES. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW...UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONE FINAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MAY KEEP SPRINKLE IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO KEEP THE REGION UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CLEARING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SUB FREEZING TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH MORNING. FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR BLACKSBURG COUNTY WARNING AREA ENDS OCT 25TH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...EASTERN COUNTIES ENDS NOV 5TH. ANY FROST/FREEZE OCCURRING BEFORE THESE DATES...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT LEAST 12 HOURS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE. AFTER THESE DATES...THE GROWING SEASON IS CONSIDERED TO BE OVER AND THEREFORE A STATEMENT WILL NOT BE ISSUED. ANYONE WITH AGRICULTURE INTEREST WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. AVIATION... MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CEILING LOWERING AFT 00Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR AT BLF AND LWB AFT 06Z WHEN THE SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY ARRIVE. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ON MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JH va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 902 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 .UPDATE... UPDATED ZONES A LITTLE EARLIER TO PULL BACK DRIZZLE MENTION TO THE NERN 1/3 OF CWA...AND TO GO FROM CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING AS SEVERAL LARGE HOLES OPENED UP /MAINLY IN MN/ IN THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY MID LEVELS ACTING IN TANDEM TO OPEN A FEW OF THOSE HOLES...AND THIS AREA ALSO WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE ANTICYCLONIC. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE CHANNEL DEPICTING A LARGE SHIELD OF STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN DESCENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO CWA. STILL SOME SPECKLES OF DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER /REFERENCE KGRB 00Z SOUNDING/ AND FLOW OFF SUPERIOR. 00Z KMPX RAOB SHOWING MOISTURE NOT NEARLY AS DEEP...AND 21Z RUC SUGGESTING THAT SERN MN/NERN IA COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN MORE IN THIS DRIER FLOW/HIGHER CEILINGS. SO PULLED DRIZZLE MENTION THESE AREAS. DEEPER MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE RIVER INTO WISC SO KEPT DRIZZLE HERE. TEMPTED TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT IN MN/IA COUNTIES WITH CURRENT LARGE HOLES IN THE CLOUD DECKS...BUT ADVECTION OF UPSTREAM CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD YIELD THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CURRENTLY IN ZONES. 18Z NAM CONFIRMS INCREASE IN H9 RH IN ERN CWA OVERNIGHT. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ BINAU wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 327 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2005 .DISCUSSION... DEEP H5 LOW OVER ECNTRL IL 00Z MON APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST INTO SRN INDIANA PER THE RUC AND EASTERN MOST WIND PROFILERS. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE FA. ISOLD SHRA WAS NOTED ACROSS WEST KY. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY. EVEN WITH SOME BREAKS SEEN TO OUR NORTH...H8 ANALYSIS SHOWED EXTENSIVE MSTR UPSTREAM. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE RATHER COOL...WITH MAXS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. GUIDANCE POPS ARE RATHER LOW TODAY. WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE FA. SO OTHER THAN AN ISOLD SPRINKLE OVER OUR FAR EAST COUNTIES...DO NOT PLAN A MENTION OF ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME. TONIGHT...THE GFS ROTATES ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE H5 LOW...AND PAINTS MINIMAL QPF OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS MOIST AS THE GFS. SO FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE EAST...BUT WILL MONITOR. WENT AHEAD AND LEFT PATCHY FROST IN OUR OZARK FOOTHILL REGION...AS CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A LITTLE FROST. BASICALLY NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY. KEPT IN THE FROST MENTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S...AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR DECOUPLING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LONG TERM...WE ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERN U.S. TROFINESS IN WHAT WILL REMAIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS. CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH IN TIMING EMBEDDED FEATURES WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN...RESULTANT CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP CHANCES IF ANY. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ CN ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 245 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)... DEEP UPPER TROF MOVING OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MONDAY MORNING... WATER VAPOR AND RUC DATA INDICATE CENTER OF UPPER LOW IS NEAR OR SOUTH OF IND AS OF 07 UTC. PRONOUNCED CLEAR SLOT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH AN AXIS OF -SHRA AND LOWER CLOUDS OVER IL/IN ASSOC WITH SFC TROF AXIS. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED NICELY WITH CLR SKIES...INTO THE MIDDLE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS PER MESONET/ASOS DATA. FROST HAS DEVELOPED ON CARS PARKED IN THE WFO LOT...NO DOUBT AREAS OF FROST OCCURRING ACROSS CWA SO WILL MENTION IN FCST FOR EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY EAST OF I-65. PEOPLE MAY WANT TO ALLOW A COUPLE EXTRA MINUTES THIS MORNING TO SCRAPE FROST OFF THE CAR WINDOWS BEFORE GOING TO WORK OR SCHOOL. FOLLOWING THE RUC/NAM FOR THIS MORNINGS FCST. TROF AXIS AND ASSOC LOW LVL THETA-E ADVECTION MAX EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE LOW CHC OF -SHRA. WITH UPPER LOW IN VICINITY...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN THIS AFTN LEADING TO CONTINUED CHCS FOR SHRA ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY NW WINDS...PER BUFKIT DATA. VWP FROM LVX NEXRAD ALREADY SHOWING 30KTS AT 2KFT AND SDF ACARS HAS 25KTS AT 1500 FT. FREEZING LVLS (3-4KFT AGL) AND -20C LVLS (12-14 KFT) ARE QUITE LOW...SO A COUPLE SHOWER CELLS COULD PRODUCE SOME VERY SMALL HAIL OR IP- TODAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY NEAR STL/SRN IL. SFC TROF AXIS LOOSES ITS IDENTITY THIS EVE...SO FEEL THAT WE'LL LIKELY LOOSE AT LEAST SOME OF THE DAYTIME CONVECTIVELY GENERATED CLOUD COVER. WILL TREND CLOUD COVERAGE GRIDS DOWNWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TODAY AND CONTINUED COOL ADVECTION...READINGS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. I LIKE WHAT'S IN THE GRIDS NOW FOR MAXIMA TODAY... RANGING FROM MIDDLE 40S AT LEX TO LOWER 50S AT BWG (CLOSE TO GFS MOS VALUES). TEMPS TONIGHT DEPEND OF CLOUD COVERAGE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THAT REALM...WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING FCST OF UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR MINIMA. CS .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... .TUESDAY... HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY THE AFTERNOON. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A VERY ROBUST COLD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BRING SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH NORTH WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL. .WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD AS ANOTHER...WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST. BY THURSDAY...THIS TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM KENTUCKY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC. MEANWHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THE RELATIVE ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN HINTS AT A SLOW MOVEMENT. THIS WILL KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SAG SOUTH TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL GENERALLY BRING LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE EACH DAY OF THE EXTENDED...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE EVER PRESENT IN VICINITY OF UPPER TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING FORECAST OF AT LEAST SOME SUN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE JUST A BIT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT TO THE EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP. JSD && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 130 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2005 .DISCUSSION... A SMALL AREA OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPED PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE OZARKS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-44. SEEMS THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS RELATED TO A SMALL REGION OF THERMAL ADVECTION AROUND 85H. LATEST VIS/FOG SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED AN AREA OF STRATO-CU ACROSS MOST OF MISSOURI...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW MO WHERE DRIER AIR AND SUBSTANCE WAS DEVELOPING. FAR WESTERN MO AND SE KANSAS WERE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN THE MORNING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND BRISK WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE OZARKS THROUGH SUNRISE. SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AS THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE. WILL MAKE THE FINAL UPDATE TO SKY COVER GRIDS BEFORE ZONE ISSUANCE. THE MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY THE RUC/NAM INDICATED A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN THIS FIELD BY MID-MORNING...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE 92H LEVEL. RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE...DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS ALONG THE OZARK PLATEAU NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD MAY ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH NOON/OR EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SKIES TO QUICKLY BECOME CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S BY MIDNIGHT. ENOUGH MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS MAY PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FROST TUESDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD HAVE A WIDESPREAD FROST WITH SOME SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI AND SHELTERED AREAS OF THE OZARKS. THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN WIDESPREAD FROST FOR MOST OF WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS EARLIER THIS MONTH...BUT A HARD FREEZE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THE HWO AND/OR ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING. THERE WERE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN TROUGH STILL ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEEN FORECASTING A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS WEEK. THIS IS DIFFERENT FROM GFS 12Z RUN...AND THE CURRENT RUN OF THE NAM. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS SYSTEM...AND THE EFFECTS OF ANY CLOUD COVER BY LATER THIS WEEK. JLT && .AVIATION... FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE SPRINGFIELD AERODROME EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS OVER THE REGION. BACK EDGE OF STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE JOPLIN AERODROME WITH CEILINGS REMAINING AROUND 5-6KFT. ETA BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MIXED LAYER RH PROGS...ALONG WITH IR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z WITH SOME LIFTING AND THINNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY...EXPECT STRATUS SHIELD TO FOLLOW. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO DROP TO AROUND 4-5 KTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TERRY && SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 230 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2005 .DISCUSSION... NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT AS MAIN WEATHER ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED TO EAST COAST AND WEST COAST. BLOCKING PATTERN LEAVING US MAINLY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING SOUTH AROUND RIDGE AND INTO MN/IA. NEITHER HAS MUCH MOISTURE AND STILL PLANNING ON MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST. TOUGHEST DECISIONS WILL BE TRYING TO DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF MIXING EACH DAY WITH GENERALLY WEAK FLOW. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRATOCU THREAT TODAY...AND LOOKING MOSTLY SUNNY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I29. SOME STRATOCU POTENTIAL EAST OF I29 AND RUC SEEMS TO BE ONLY MODEL PICKING UP ON THIS...AND AM NOT FAR FROM ITS SOLUTION TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD HOLD INTO ABOUT TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT. WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD PROVE TO BE A LITTLE FOGGY AS BOUNDARY SLOWLY LEAKS IN AND WEAKENS...WHICH IN THE PAST HAS BEEN DECENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THIS IS VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...SO AT THIS TIME JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. OVERALL...NO BIG CHANGES TO FORECAST. CONTINUED ON LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR DEW POINTS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING INTO CWA AND UPPER 20 DEW POINTS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN UPPER TEEN DEW POINTS CURRENTLY. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ 08 sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1152 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 .UPDATE... SENT ONE MORE UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES AND ADJUST SKY CONDITION TO THE NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. SCATTERED FROST POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS NORTH OF DFW...AND ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THAT POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WERE DIMINISHING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. /09 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005/ UPDATE... BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY EXTENDED FROM NEAR KABI TO SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX AT 755 PM AND WAS MOVING ESE AT 25 KTS. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS SEEMED TO CORRELATE WELL WITH FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 700 MB ON LATEST RUC. RADAR DEPICTION OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF SURFACE WEATHER GIVEN HIGH CLOUD BASES AND DRYING SUBCLOUD LAYER. A FEW SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AS FAR SOUTH AS WACO...PALESTINE...AND CORSICANA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. CLEARING TREND WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH ALL BUT TEMPLE AND KILLEEN AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE MONDAY. UPDATED ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. MAY SEND ONE MORE UPDATED PACKAGE BEFORE 10 PM TO MAKE A FEW MORE FIRST PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS. /09 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005/ DISCUSSION... WE WILL KEEP SOME SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...AS THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VERTICAL MOTIONS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY BELOW MAV MOS VALUES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS WE DID 24 HOURS AGO. DOWN THE ROAD...A WEAK RAIN SITUATION MAY SET UP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THURSDAY...AS A DIFLUENT TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. DYNAMICS ARE PRETTY GOOD WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...WE HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT SUNDAY. WE HAVE GONE WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AT THIS JUNCTURE. IF THIS PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE MODELS...SOME LOW POPS WILL BE ADDED IN LATER FORECASTS. #26 FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 128 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 .AVIATION... SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE BEST ENERGY ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MISS MUCH OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE REMOVED PREVAILING WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE VALID 06Z SW VA TAF SITES FOR TODAY...AND HAVE LIMITED TO TEMPORARY MVFR WEATHER JUST IN ADVANCE AND CONCURRENT TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SE WV DOES STILL APPEAR TO HAVE A PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR WEATHER HEADING INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT IN THE LOW LEVELS IS PROGGED TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH...SO NOT OPTIMAL FOR GOOD CLEARING OUT OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS...EVEN IN THE PIEDMONT. WILL MAINTAIN AN BORDERING VFR/MVFR CEILING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE SW VA TAF SITES...WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY IN PLACES. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 912 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING FAR SW VA SHOULD DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS REACHING THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MORNING. HOWEVER ACTUAL 85H BOUNDARY REPRESENTING ONSET OF GOOD CAA WILL LAG BACK A BIT AND LIKELY HANG UP A BIT ACROSS THE RIDGES MONDAY BEFORE STRONG S/W PIVOTS EASTWARD. EXPECT BEST LIFT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING TO OCCUR OVER THE FAR WEST ALONG THE 85H FRONT AND IN REGION OF INCREASING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF UPPER VORT ON MONDAY. MOST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RUC/WRF POINTING TO A SLOWER EASTWARD PUSH OF SHRA OVERNIGHT ESPCLY GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT TO OVERCOME PER 00Z RAOBS AND PARALLEL SWLY UPPER FLOW. THIS ALSO IN LINE WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS SO PLAN TO SLOW/LOWER POPS OVER THE WEST A CAT OR SO TNGT AND REMOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE EVEN CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ADVECT IN. LATEST NAM/GFS ALSO SHOW 85H 0C LINE SKIRTING THE WESTERN SLOPES BY DAYBREAK WITH BEST CAA DURING MONDAY. FREEZING LEVELS SUGGEST SOME MIX POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500 LATE...AND ESPCLY SE WVA ELEVATIONS MONDAY WHERE BEST PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR N OF DRY SLOT TO THE SW. THUS WILL INCLUDE A -SHSN/-SN MENTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO MONDAY AS WELL ALTHO OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR RATHER LIGHT ESPCLY SOUTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS LOOKING OK GIVEN CAA LATE OVER THE WEST...AND DECENT RAD COOLING EARLY OUT EAST BEFORE THE CLOUD SHIELD ARRIVES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 729 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005) AVIATION... COLD FRONT JUST OFF TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO QUICKLY INCREASE AT BLF/LWB THIS EVENING AND THEN LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AT ROA BY MIDNIGHT AND LYH/DAN LATE. COLUMN SHOULD MOISTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW -SHRA SE WVA SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR/OCNL IFR VSBYS 08-12Z. WILL HOLD OFF SHRA MENTION ROA UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK AND LYH AFTER 12Z WITH DAN POSSIBLY REMAINING DRY UNTIL MIDDAY OR LATER. EXPECT MOST SITES TO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS OR VSBYS MON ALTHO DAN MAY STAY VFR PENDING SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF DEEP RH. RAINFALL LOOKS TO TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING MON AFTERNOON WITH INCLUSION OF A BRIEF -SHSN MIX BLF BEFORE ENDING AS DEEPER CAA ARRIVES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 305 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE BEGINNINGS OF A BAROCLINIC LEAF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A CLOSED LOW DIGGING OVER IOWA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS...QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC FORCING AND UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO BACK BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN. 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES VERSUS THE 06Z RUNS SO WILL ADJUST FORECAST TO HOLD THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND 06Z IN THE WEST AND AFT 09Z EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EVEN IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEREFORE HAVE REMOVE SNOW FOR TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE RAIN ARRIVES...AREAS HAVING RAIN BY SUNRISE WILL NOT LIKELY SEE ANY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD SEE TEMPS FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN SECTIONS WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE RAIN AND MAY SEE SOME TEMPS IN THE 50S BEFORE THE RAIN BEGINS. MID TERM (MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING)... UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. A SECOND SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE CLOSED LOW IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN GENERALLY BRINGS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA WITH BEST POPS IN SE WV. HOWEVER...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WILMA WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST. WILMA COULD AND WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER BY PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITING PRECIPITATION. TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILMA MOVES ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST AND WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW TO BRING BACK SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND PARTICULARLY WESTERN SLOPES OF SE WV. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND MINUS 2C AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AROUND 1305 M. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET WILL LIKELY SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW AND POSSIBLY ALL SNOW. GROUND RELATIVELY WARM AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFIDED TO GRASSY SURFACES. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW...UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONE FINAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MAY KEEP SPRINKLE IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO KEEP THE REGION UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CLEARING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SUB FREEZING TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH MORNING. FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR BLACKSBURG COUNTY WARNING AREA ENDS OCT 25TH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...EASTERN COUNTIES ENDS NOV 5TH. ANY FROST/FREEZE OCCURRING BEFORE THESE DATES...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT LEAST 12 HOURS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE. AFTER THESE DATES...THE GROWING SEASON IS CONSIDERED TO BE OVER AND THEREFORE A STATEMENT WILL NOT BE ISSUED. ANYONE WITH AGRICULTURE INTEREST WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. AVIATION... MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CEILING LOWERING AFT 00Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR AT BLF AND LWB AFT 06Z WHEN THE SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY ARRIVE. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ON MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ DS va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 615 AM EST MON OCT 24 2005 .UPDATE... LATEST RUC40 INDICATES THAT UPR LVL LOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED WITH SFC TO 700 MB LOWS OVER N CNTRL OHIO BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...WRAP AROUND PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE N TO S ORIENTED...BRUSHING THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA. ELSEWHERE...ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NNE FLOW ALOFT. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES/GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AVIATION... UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUED SE OF FWA...WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO REMAIN EAST AND SE OF FWA...SO WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF FWA TAF AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH A SHOWER COULD MOVE ACROSS THE FWA TERMINAL ABOUT ANYTIME IN THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WERE UPSTREAM OF SBN AND FWA...SO GIVEN SOME HOLES IN SC CLOUD DECK THAT HAVE TEMPORARILY OPENED UP...HAVE MENTIONED TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER LOW WAS SOUTH OF AOH...WITH A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST INTO INDIANA FROM OHIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS LOW HAS BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. THEREFORE...WILL WEIGH NCEP MODEL RUNS WITH PERSISTENCE IN THE SHORT TERM. GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE AND TRENDS NOTED IN WATER WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND IN NW OH TONIGHT. VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS PERSIST WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 3000 FT AGL. 700 MB TEMPERATURE PER UPPER AIR DATA AND ACARS/TAMDAR DATA WAS AROUND -11C...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED REPORT OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS/ZFP. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO STAY AS ALL RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO ABOUT -2C...1000-850 MB THICKNESS STAY GENERALLY STAY AT OR ABOVE 1315 METERS AND INDICATE JUST RAIN IN THE EARLY SEASON GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM BOUNDARY LEVEL TEMPERATURES. PREFER COOLER MAV MOS HIGHS OVER NAM MET...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST AREA/AOH WHERE RAIN SHOULD HELP HOLD THE TEMPERATURES DOWN. AOH HIGH SUNDAY WAS 47F AND THE 46F MAV FORECAST FOR AOH ON MONDAY APPEARS ON TRACK. LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VLY WILL BE THE FIRST FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE LONG TERM. 00Z NAM IS MUCH FASTER IN DEPARTING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AROUND CLOSED LOW THAN THE 00Z GFS. MADE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...AND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WHICH LINGERS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR ERN CWFA...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY...EXCEPT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LAKE MICHIGAN REGION AS THE MEAN LOW LVL FLOW SHIFTS FROM NNE TO N TO EVENTUALLY MORE NNW BY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER S/WV WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PROVINCES OF CANADA INTO THE MEAN H5 TROF OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES...KEEPING THE MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOL CONDITIONS. AGAIN...DELTA TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE LAKE SFC AND 850 MB WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHC OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NW QUARTER OF THE CWFA NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALL LONG RANGE MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TO WHERE A POSSIBLE CLOSED H5 LOW WILL DEVELOP...EITHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES...OR PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. WILL LEAVE GOING GRIDS AS IS ATTM AS FORECAST CLOSED LOW POSITIONS THAT FAR OUT INTO THE EXTENDED CAN BE TRICKY. THUS...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IF CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...CURRENT EXTENDED FCST WARMING TREND MAY HAVE TO BE CURTAILED. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11Z WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...HICKMAN SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SKIPPER LONG TERM...HICKMAN in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1013 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. 06Z GFS/12Z RUC SHOW QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE MAINE MOUNTAINS. 06Z GFS MOS RUNNING A LOT LOWER THAN NAM MOS ON POPS. WILL ESSENTIALLY COMPROMISE...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST EXPANDING CHANCE POPS A TAD. WILL MENTION DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST. FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL BUMP DOWN HIGHS A TAD...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND 40. OVERALL VERY MINOR CHANGES. ONLY CHANGE TO COASTAL WATERS WILL BE TO RAISE THE VSBY FORECAST. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 310 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EVOLUTION OF WILMA...WHAT'S LEFT OF ALPHA ONE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL DIFFERENT TRACKS AND SOLUTIONS HOWEVER...STILL YIELD STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG OUR COASTAL WATERS DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. WILL BE RAISING STORM WARNINGS AS MARINAS ARE IN A VULNERABLE TIME PERIOD LIFTING BOATS OUT OF THE WATER AND MARINERS WELL OFFSHORE WILL REQUIRE TIME TO GET INTO PORT...SO WE WILL PROVIDE THESE USERS WITH A HEADS UP AT THIS TIME AND RAISE THE STORM FLAGS. STEEP TRANSITION RATE FROM TROPICAL TO EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM ON CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS IMPLIES RAPID EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS TONIGHT...WHICH IS BEING HANDLED WELL BY OPERATIONAL MODELS. QPF...RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY...BUT PROBABLY NOT TIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HPC GUIDANCE WITH A MAX NEAR 3" FOR A 2-DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. DAY SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. WILL BE ISSUING AN ESF TO NOTE POSSIBLE FLOOD POTENTIAL. 2.0-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS REQUIRED IN MANY AREAS TO INDUCE FLOODING IN ABOUT AN 18 HR PERIOD. WIND...EXPECT WE MAY NEED ADVISORIES FOR WIND OVER SOUTHERN MAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE IN A LATER FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...IF NAM WIND FORECAST VERIFIES...HIGH WIND WARNINGS WOULD BE REQUIRED IN SOME COUNTIES. TIDES...TIDES ARE IN THE LOW PORTION OF THEIR TIDAL CYCLE. STILL...LARGE WAVES EXPECTED ALONG WITH AROUND A 2.0 FOOT STORM SURGE. NORTHEAST FACING BEACHES WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS FOR SPLASHOVER. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN ZONE PACKAGE AND HWO PRODUCT. SNOW...THERE IS SOME SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET...SIMILAR TO LAST SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...BOUNDRY LAYER CONDTIONS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OFF MID ATLATIC COAST TUESDAY AND THEN EXACT TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST ON LATE TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILMA WILL PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IF ITS TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS ENTRAINED INTO SYSTEM. ALSO NELY WIND FIELD MAY BE EVEN MORE INTENSE IF THE ETA MODEL IS CORRECT WITH WILMA TRACKING FURTHER W. GFS MODEL TRACKS WILMA FURTHER E. ALONG THE COAST...BUFKIT SHOWS 70 KT WIND FIELD MIXING DOWN TO AROUND 1000 FEET FROM ETA AND 60 KT WIND FIELD OFF GFS...THIS IS OF GREAT CONCERN ALONG THE COAST SO STORM FORCE WINDS BEING FORECAST OVER THE WATERS. QPF AMTS OF 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED BUT MAY BE OVER A 12- 24 HR PERIOD WHICH MAY NOT CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS SO HOLDING OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOME SNOW EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE BUT BECAUSE OF STILL TOO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES THINK MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET...WILL HAVE TO REVISIT THE RAIN VS SNOW SCENARIO IN LATER FORECASTS. AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MARINE...STORM FLAGS ARE BEING HOISTED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ150 FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY. && $$ me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1106 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL OHIO RIVER VALLEY...A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH NEAR GRAND JUNCTION NORTHEAST THROUGH MANITOBA...AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. A -4C 850MB THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A -2C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD RIDGE BLANKETING THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. A LOW IS DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE IS QUITE DRY...WHEREAS THAT OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS INDICATING 80 TO 90 PERCENT MEAN SURFACE-850MB RH. A VERY STRONG INVERSION IS AT 850MB. THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. THIS MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AROUND 90 PERCENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -2C HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF GENERATE SOME IP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE. WILL STILL NEED TO TWEAK A FEW TEMPERATURES UP AS THEY ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN CURRENT OBS. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHING THERE WILL BE A LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WINDS AS WELL. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1045 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 .UPDATE...SFC/SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING SOME BLUE SKIES OUT THERE THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG. AREA TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWING THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH IN CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR LOUISVILLE. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT HAS PRESSED SOUTH AS PLANNED...AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS DISRUPTED THE BETTER BANDING STRUCTURES SEEN TO THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN OFF LAKE HURON. WITH H8/H9 TEMPS OF -2C/3C OVER THE WATER WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...HOWEVER THE DECREASING TREND IN H9-H7 RH AND UPPER SUPPORT DOES NOT HELP. ALSO...COLD POOL NOT EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY. WILL LOWER POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...HOLDING ON TO HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS MORE FAVORABLE REGIME NEAREST THE THUMB. TEMPS LOOK OK...AND SO DO SMALL CRAFTS PRESQUE ISLE SOUTHWARD AS WINDS CONTINUE AT 10-20 WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS. WAVES IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE...POSSIBLY 4-6FT. SMD && .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 DISCUSSION...ON THE CURRENT SURFACE MAP...1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN PLAINS STATES. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPINNING OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. APX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS COMING OFF OF LAKE HURON BUT THE COVERAGE HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT NEAR SAULT STE MARIE AND BECOME BROKEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND CLOUD COVER. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES. LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN EVIDENCE WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW SINKING A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. MODELS ALLOW THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TURN THE CORNER AND INCH TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHICH WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE FOR THE WEATHER TODAY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SO THE MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE LAKE EFFECT OFF OF LAKE HURON (AND A BIT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN BRUSHING WESTERN LEELANAU AND BENZIE COUNTIES. AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE -2 TO -3C RANGE DELTA TS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 15. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DROPS JUST A BIT (MEAN 900-700 MB FALLS FROM 90 TO 80 PERCENT) AND INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN A TAD (FROM 6000 TO 4000 FEET). THE UPSHOT OF ALL THIS IS FOR NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS FROM NEAR TAWAS CITY TO STANDISH...SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOWER...ISOLATED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND NO POPS (DOWNSLOPING) ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER DUE TO DAYTIME INSTABILITY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO ALABASTER WITH WAVES REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR (BARELY) WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY (MAINLY NEAR LAKE HURON). SULLIVAN LATER PERIODS...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THRU EARLY TUESDAY...THEN QUICKLY SWING NE TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MARITIMES FOR WEDNESDAY. SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROFFING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN US...WITH SEVERAL REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DROPPING DUE SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY MID-WEEK. THERMAL PROPERTIES OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL CHANGE LITTLE... THOUGH 1000-850MB WINDS WILL BACK MORE NORTHERLY AND BRING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION (BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT). LAKE EFFECT/ ENHANCED PRECIP REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT...OH...FOUR MONTHS OR SO. MODELS AGREE ON QUIET SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS EVENING (WHEN ONTARIO WAVE DROPS DOWNSTATE) THRU TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS DISAGREE ON DETAILS OF VARIOUS ARCTIC SHORTWAVES FOR MIDWEEK...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THRU WED MORNING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. GFS/NAM BOTH ARGUE FOR SOME DPVA ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED. TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PLUNGES DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE MI IN THE EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE (AND WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WOBBLING SOUTH IN RESPONSE)...HEIGHTS REBOUND A TOUCH WITH CORRESPONDING MID LEVEL DRYING. 850-700MB RH LEVELS DROP FROM 75 PERCENT AT 00Z TO 50 PERCENT AT 12Z. 850MB TEMPS -3/4C...AND 1000-850MB WINDS WOBBLING BETWEEN NE AND NNE...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DISTRIBUTED MUCH LIKE THE PAST 24 HOURS. THAT MEANS A NEGLIGIBLE CHANCE IN EASTERN UPPER DUE TO A STRONG DOWNSLOPE...AND A SMALL CHANCE IN MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER...WITH HIGHER POPS EAST OF A CHEBOYGAN/GLADWIN LINE. A SURFACE-BASED MELTING LAYER DROPPING BELOW 1K FEET VERY LATE COULD BRING MIXED PRECIP TO HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...PRECIP SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME GIVEN DRYING AND INVERSIONS LOWERING BELOW 4K FEET...AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY MIXED PRECIP OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THRU THESE PERIODS...850-700MB RH AROUND 40 PERCENT. A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND OVER LAKE HURON...ON THE OUTER REACHES OF THE UPPER LOW/S CIRCULATION. 1000-850MB WINDS WILL START OUT FROM THE NNE TUESDAY MORNING. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE CANADA WEAKENS...NAM/GFS BOTH BACK WINDS NORTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND KEEP IT THERE TUESDAY NIGHT. INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW (3-4K FEET)...WITH MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO -5C OR SO. NONE OF THIS IS PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP. WILL KEEP CHANCY POPS IN THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIMES...MAINLY VERY NEAR LAKES MI/HURON IN NORTHERN LOWER...AND MAYBE FAR WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES IN EASTERN UPPER. GIVEN PRECIP SHOULD NOT EXTEND INTO HIGHER TERRAIN PARTS OF THE INTERIOR...AND REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO THE VERY WARM LAKES...WILL NOT MENTION ANY MIXED PRECIP. WEDNESDAY...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SYNOPTIC ASSISTANCE TO CAUSE A SUBSTANTIAL UPTICK IN PRECIP. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE 600MB AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE HEADING ACROSS SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THAT STILL LEAVES ABUNDANT DRY AIR BELOW THAT AND ABOVE THE 3-5K FEET INVERSION. STILL...THIS IS THE 5TH PERIOD...AND WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON I DON/T WANT TO BE TOO CUTE. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCE POPS ALL LOCALES ALL DAY...FOR NOW WILL KEEP THAT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT RESTRICT PRECIP TO BETTER LAKE FETCHES IN THE MORNING. GFS IS CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN THE NAM (-6/7C AT 850MB VS -4C). IT/S QUITE UNCERTAIN EVEN WITH THE COLDER SOLUTION WHETHER SNOW WOULD OCCUR DURING THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A MIX IN EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER... THOUGH I HAVE MY DOUBTS WOULDN/T RULE IT OUT AND THUS WILL LET THAT RIDE. NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. ZOLTOWSKI && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1021 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS MATCHING UP REASONABLY WELL WITH 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. BEST LIFT ON THIS SURFACE TO CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT 1800 UTC. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND. TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE. NO OTHER CHANGES. && .AVIATION... WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA CONTINUES TO AFFECT ALL 4 TERMINALS. -SHRA HAS BEGUN TO TAPER OFF AT FLO. SHRA WILL STILL AFFECT MYRTLES AND ILM THROUGH ABOUT 3 OR 4 PM. REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANY THE MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAIN. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND WILMA PULLS DRY AIR IN...WILL SEE A QUICK RECOVERY TO VFR LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...ALBEIT A WINDY VFR WITH 25+ KT GUSTS. && .MARINE... WILMA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED AS SHE CROSSES SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THE STORM WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE COAST THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...RESULTING A RATHER SUDDEN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. LATEST RUC SHOWING SPEEDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE LATER TODAY. ONLY CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TWEAKING WIND SPEEDS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 437 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... PLENTY OF PCPN ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES...EASTWARD TO WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF WILMA ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BECOME AN EXCELLENT SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER TROF IS AMPLIFYING AND DIGGING SE AIDING IN THE ACCELERATION OF WILMA TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO AND THRU THE CWA TODAY. SOMEWHAT COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF SYSTEMS DYNAMICALLY SPEAKING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...INVOLVING THE INTERACTION WITH WILMA AND THE 2 FRONTAL ZONES. AS A RESULT...WILMA WILL BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TUESDAY MORNING AS SHE PASSES WELL EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...AND ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS TUESDAY MORNING. WITH SUCH A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE PCPN SHIELD...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A RATHER LARGE RANGE OF POPS. RANGING FROM 70-80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...TO 30 POPS NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE TAPERED OFF ALL PCPN BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO THE QUICKER ACCELERATION OF WILMA. FOR TUESDAY WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH UPPER VORT AIDING CLOUDINESS LATER IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS. IN ADDITION...A RATHER EXPANSE SFC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM THE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW WILL HAVE SET UP...PROVIDING THE GUSTY NW WINDS. TUESDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE LOWER OF THE 2 DAYS. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE UPPER TROF WITH VORTS DROPPING IN AND ROTATING THRU KEEPING IT SOMEWHAT CARVED AND AMPLIFIED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. WITH ENUF AVBL MOISTURE VIA MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS TO PRODUCE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS. FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GFS INDICATES THE 1 LAST UPPER VORT AIDING IN THE EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS EASTWARD TO THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...GFS WANTS TO PAINT A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG AN INVERTED TROF WHICH WOULD HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WILL UP TO 30 POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN CLOSER TO THE COAST. STILL PLENTY OF IFS TIL THEN. MARINE... NHC AND GFS NOW MATCHING UP PRETTY WELL...WITH HURRICANE WILMA PROGGED TO BE ACCELERATING NE AND PASSING ABOUT 200 NM SE OF CAPE FEAR TONIGHT. TRANSITION TO EXTRA-TROPICAL WILL BE UNDERWAY AND A PERIOD OF GALES IS FORECAST TONIGHT IN MY NC WATERS. AFTER WILMA MAKES A HASTY EXIT TO THE NE ON TUESDAY...WINDS QUICKLY BACK NW. STRONG VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF AND DECENT CAA WILL MERIT KEEPING SPEEDS HIGHER THAN PROGGED BY GFS FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE LARGELY FETCH LIMITED. HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE NEW WNAWAVE NUMBERS SEEM UNDERDONE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT SC WATERS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TUE MORNING...WHILE NC WATERS MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE EVENING TUE. FRESH MWS WILL BE ISSUED TO UPDATE STATUS OF GALE WARNING. AVIATION... STEADY DOWNWARD TREND EXPECTED IN COASTAL TERMINALS AS AREA OF PRECIP OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO CREEP EVER CLOSER. EXPECT ONSET OF PRECIP JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR INITIALLY BUT DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. MOST OF THE MORNING WILL FEATURE MVFR CIG/VIS IN RAIN...WITH OCCASIONAL DIPS INTO IFR BEST HANDLED IN TEMPO GROUPS. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND WILMA PULLS DRY AIR IN...WILL SEE A QUICK RECOVERY TO VFR MID-LATE AFTERNOON... ALBEIT A WINDY VFR WITH 25+ KT GUSTS. SHARP CUTOFF IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP KFLO IN THE VFR CATEGORY...WITH ONLY A TEMPO FOR A BRIEF SHOT OF PRECIP MID-LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ250-252 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY. ...GALE WARNING FOR AMZ250-252 FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ254-256 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHK AVIATION...JAN MARINE...III nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1000 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2005 .DISCUSSION... SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 14Z SHOWS RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM KHON TO NEAR TYNDALL SD. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING IN VICINITY OF KHON AND KMHE. HURON FLIGHT SERVICE REPORTED FOG IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...AND EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. OTHER CONCERN IS THE STRATUS DECK BACKING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF CWA. EXPECT STRATUS TO ONLY BRIEFLY MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN FORECAST AREA AS IT GRADUALLY RETREATS BACK TO THE EAST. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF STRATOCUMULUS IN THE VICINITY OF STRATUS. A CLOSER INSPECTION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND THE NOON HOUR. HAVE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD GRIDS...BUT OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN FINE SHAPE. WILL MAKE MINOR UPDATE TO CLOUD WORDING IN ZFP... AND NEW PFM AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. && .PREV. DISCUSSION... NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT AS MAIN WEATHER ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED TO EAST COAST AND WEST COAST. BLOCKING PATTERN LEAVING US MAINLY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING SOUTH AROUND RIDGE AND INTO MN/IA. NEITHER HAS MUCH MOISTURE AND STILL PLANNING ON MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST. TOUGHEST DECISIONS WILL BE TRYING TO DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF MIXING EACH DAY WITH GENERALLY WEAK FLOW. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRATOCU THREAT TODAY...AND LOOKING MOSTLY SUNNY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I29. SOME STRATOCU POTENTIAL EAST OF I29 AND RUC SEEMS TO BE ONLY MODEL PICKING UP ON THIS...AND AM NOT FAR FROM ITS SOLUTION TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD HOLD INTO ABOUT TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT. WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD PROVE TO BE A LITTLE FOGGY AS BOUNDARY SLOWLY LEAKS IN AND WEAKENS...WHICH IN THE PAST HAS BEEN DECENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THIS IS VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...SO AT THIS TIME JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. OVERALL...NO BIG CHANGES TO FORECAST. CONTINUED ON LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR DEW POINTS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING INTO CWA AND UPPER 20 DEW POINTS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN UPPER TEEN DEW POINTS CURRENTLY. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ BT/08 sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 330 PM PDT MON OCT 24 2005 .DISCUSSION... 18Z RUC MOVES LOW OFF CALIFORNIA COAST ONSHORE BY 06Z TONIGHT. INSTABILITY SHOWERS DEVELOP IN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW TONIGHT. THESE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-80. CHANCE TYPE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT. EXPECT LESS QPF THAN THE GFS SOLUTION BUT IT BEARS WATCHING AS THIS SYSTEM DOES PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...DEEPENING MARINE LAYER WILL DRIVE STRATUS CLOUDS INLAND TO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND AGAINST THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WHERE THESE CLOUDS BUMP UP AGAINST THE HILLS. LOW OPENS TO A NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND SWINGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN TOMORROW. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TAIL EDGE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SHASTA-TRINITY MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER TOMORROW. VORT MAX MOVES ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS COOL TEMPERATURES WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. GFS CONSISTENT IN DRIVING A COLDER AND STRONGER SYSTEM INTO CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW...SO THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF SOME RAIN THIS WEEKEND. UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS REMAIN DRY SO THE FORECAST HAS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...FOR NOW. SG && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS EXCEPT PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE BAY AREA...LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE BAY AREA THIS EVENING. AFT 06Z WDLY SCT -RW DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERNEV AND OVER THE SOUTH BAY AREA. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG (MVFR CONDITIONS) MAY DEVELOP AROUND THE SACRAMENTO REGION LATE TONIGHT. AFTER MORNING LOW CLOUDS ON TUESDAY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA WHERE LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ca SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 215 PM PDT MON OCT 24 2005 .SHORT TERM...MODERATE ONSHORE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON IS HOLDING THE LOW CLOUDS WELL INLAND WITH LITTLE EROSION ON THE EASTERN EDGE. MARINE LAYER UP TO 3800 FEET TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CLIMBING TO 5K OR HIGHER OVERNIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE CONTINUES AROUND THE COASTAL REGIONS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS REPORTED AT TIMES. CUMULUS IS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATING THAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AT THE RIDGETOP LEVEL. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 250NM WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION AND WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL SLOPES LATER THIS EVENING. VIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICTURES REVEAL A TIGHT CIRCULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A COLD CORE TO -19C IN THE UPPER LEVELS. LOCAL PROFILER WINDS INDICATE SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25KT NEAR THE 8K FT LEVEL. A JET CORE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS TROUGH HAS TAPPED INTO HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE SUBTROPICS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FETCH WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THE GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST RUC MODEL RUNS DEPICT A CLOSED LOW MOVING ONSHORE TONIGHT COMPARED TO A WEAKER OPEN TROUGH ON THE NAM MODEL. WE FAVOR A MORE DYNAMIC CIRCULATION THAT WILL EASILY LIFT THE MOIST AIR AND ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT...GENERATING RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT FROM THE HIGHER PEAKS WESTWARD TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN GENERAL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 0.10 INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH SPOTTY 0.25 INCH AMOUNTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOW SHIFTS WELL TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWER THREAT ENDING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONG HOWEVER...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR COASTAL AREAS. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY DUE TO COOLING AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. .LONG TERM...FLAT RIDGING WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON CLEARING TO COASTAL ZONES FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS FOR THE COAST AND MAYBE ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIZZLE. THIS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER RISK OF LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW HAVE PAINTED IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE CENTRAL COASTAL REGION. GIVEN THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS ENDED UP WITH A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE AREA...WILL NEED TO SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS EVENT WHICH COULD END UP SLOWER TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST TOWARD DAYS 6-7 FOR DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS...OR CLOSER TO NORMAL OCTOBER WEATHER. && .AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE 250NM WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL ACCELERATE AS THE CENTER MOVES ASHORE IN THE VICINITY OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS EVENING. THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF A KSBA-KSDB LINE WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 10KFT. THE MARINE LAYER WAS APPROXIMATELY 3.7KFT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DEEPEN OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 5KFT OR ABOVE. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX). HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...BOLDT AVIATION...FORWOOD ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 930 AM PDT MON OCT 24 2005 .DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT AND SUNNY SKIES ABOUND ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LOW 275 MILES WEST OF MONTEREY IS PICKING UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT APPROACHES. LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST TODAY...SPREADING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. RUC AND GFS GENERATE LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA UNDER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AFTER 03Z. THESE SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. MODELS PICK UP SOME INSTABILITY AS COLD CORE OF LOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL SIERRA TONIGHT. RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER MAY SPILL STRATUS CLOUDS INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY TONIGHT AS THIS OCCURS. LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF A SECOND SHORT WAVE. THIS MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...DRAGGING THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA TOMORROW EVENING. WEAKENING FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TOMORROW NIGHT. SOME OF THESE MAY SPILL OVER THE SHASTA-TRINITY MOUNTAINS. WILL ANALYZE THIS FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THIS TIME MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. SG .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... BAND OF CIRRUS ALONG DEFORMATION AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N 128W FORECAST BY PROGS TO APPROACH THE SOCAL COAST TODAY. MINOR HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS TODAY AS A RESULT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LOW FILLS SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS SOCAL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WATER VAPOR SHOWING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO BE DRAWN UP INTO FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW AND AS A RESULT PWS INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH TONIGHT. BROAD AREA OF 700-500MB QVEC OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA TONIGHT WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FAVORING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND MOTHERLODE OVERNIGHT. UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO ARIZONA TUESDAY MORNING AS BAROCLINIC WAVE IN EPAC APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH WOULD LIKE TO SEE STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENT. MODELS DEPICT LOWER LEVEL CAA OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 4 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER. FRONTOGENETIC FUNCTION IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DECREASING TO SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY. QPF IS LIGHT WITH BEST 7H UVM DEPICTED OVER THE COASTAL AND NORTHERN INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY AS SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK VORT MAXES TRACK THROUGH. STRONGER WAVE APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THEN GETS STRETCHED AS JET WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT FRIDAY. GFS DEPICTS HIGHER PWS VALUES MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATTERN SUGGEST COOL WEATHER WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME WARMING AND DRIER INTO THE WEEKEND AS EXTENDED MODELS SIMILAR IN LIFTING STORM TRACK NORTHWARD AS E PAC RIDGING BUILDS OVER NORCAL. PCH && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE BAY AREA AND LCLLY NR KMHR SWD TIL 18Z. AFT 02Z WDLY SCT -RW DEVELOPING IN THE SIERNEV. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE SACRAMENTO REGION LATE TONIGHT. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 145 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2005 .DISCUSSION... 15Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING INTO THE CWA. OFF THE WEST COAST... CUT OFF LOW WAS OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINED NEAR ALASKA. ACROSS THE EAST COAST HURRICANE WILMA WAS NEARING THE STRONG TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. OVERALL GFS INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM AS SEVERAL PROBLEMS WERE NOTED WITH NAM 500MB ANALYSIS. ETA WAS OFF IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH STRENGTH OF OHIO VALLEY LOW AND THE ROCKIES RIDGE...AND WAS GENERALLY TO WEAK WITH BOTH FEATURES. NAM ALSO HAD A SPURIOUS AREA OF LOW HEIGHTS ALONG SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA WHICH WAS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE MORNING RAOBS. GFS...ALTHOUGH BETTER...ALSO INITIALIZED THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST TO WEAK. ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES ARE SMALL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...UKMET AND CANADIAN BOTH FAVOR MORE OF THE GFS SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT MOVES OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT SO THE BIGGEST CONCERN CENTERS AROUND TEMPERATURES. H500 VORT MAX WILL SLIDE DOWN THE SIDE OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT BRINGING A WEAK SFC REFLECTION TO THE SURFACE. MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WHAT IMPACT WINDS WILL HAVE ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. ALL 2M TEMPS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RUC 13 SEEM FAR TO WARM AND THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM HAVE TO MUCH SFC MOISTURE TONIGHT. WITH A WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SETTING UP TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE PERFECT COOLING CONDITIONS. STAYED ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE BUT WILL HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE EAST AND THE WARMEST IN THE WEST. TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS REACHING THE AREA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE NEW MEXICO/COLORADO BORDER. SOUTHERN CWA MAY SEE SMALL INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE BY 12Z...BUT AIRMASS ALOFT IS GOING TO REMAIN VERY DRY SO SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE OFFSET BY LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS. MAV NUMBERS IN LINE WITH NAM/GFS NUMBERS FROM MIXING LOWEST KILOMETER...BUT THINK THAT TEMPS WILL HAVE A COLDER STARTING POINT THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SO WENT NEAR TO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. WEDNESDAY...UPPER WAVE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA AS APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND MAIN PUSH SHOULD BE JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE AND MODELS SEEM TO BE TO WARM WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SFC PATTERN. THURSDAY-FRIDAY MORNING...SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER WAVE TO THE SOUTH IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. SKIES SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART BE MOSTLY SUNNY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL HAVE A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THEM. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO WARM BASED ON THIS PATTERN AND TEMPS ALOFT AND HAVE UNDERCUT A FEW DEGREES. IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. MAJOR DIFFERENCES CENTER AROUND DEVELOPMENT AROUND OHIO VALLEY TROUGH WITH NO REAL LARGE DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE CWA. ENSEMBLES FAVOR 00Z GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO 00Z ECMWF. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL GO WITH BLEND OF THE 00 GFS AND ECMWF. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD LEADING TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. ACTUALLY ONLY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY. H500 WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 C/KM AHEAD OF WAVE. MOISTURE LOOKS MARGINAL AND WITH QUESTIONS ON TIMING STILL POSSIBLE DECIDED ONLY TO KEEP SOME SILENT POPS AND NOT MENTION ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS RANGE. ONLY MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 5 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND WITH UPPER FLOW FAVORABLE FOR LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND THUS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION DONT SEE ANY REASON WHY THESE TEMPS COULDNT BE REACHED. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ JRM ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 339 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. CURRENT WEATHER...18Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WITH HURRICANE WILMA TO THE SE OF IT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A SHRTWV CAN ALSO BE SEEN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO MAKING ITS DIVE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW AND ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...A SHRTWV CAN ALSO BE SEEN OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES OFF OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN THANKS TO CONTINUED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKES WITH LAKE SURFACE TO 850MB DELTA-T\S REMAINING AROUND 13C PER 12Z RAOBS AND BUOY DATA. 12Z PICKLE LAKE AND MOOSONEE ONTARIO SOUNDINGS SHOW THE UPSTREAM MOISTURE WITH NEAR SATURATED PROFILES FROM 850MB TO THE SURFACE. THIS SATURATION IS ALSO NOTED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONS HAVING IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS. NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT AND INSTABILITY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES WITH MAINLY SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE U.P.. DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALSO MIXED OUT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE EVERYWHERE INTO THE 40S. AS FOR SURFACE SYSTEMS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS WHILE A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN OHIO. TONIGHT...SHRTWV OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...CAUSING A LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION (850MB TEMPS DROP MAYBE 1C). THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION IN CONJUNCTION WITH NORTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING ON LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP KEEP LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GOING...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS. AFTER THE SHRTWV PASSES...SUBSIDENCE COMING IN BEHIND IT WILL REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.P....PERHAPS EVEN ENDING THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LEFT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THE SOUTH BUT MUCH OF THIS MAY END UP AS SPRINKLES GIVEN THE WEAKENING DYNAMICS. NOT THAT IMPRESSED ABOUT SNOW CHANCES DUE TO THREE FACTORS...LACK OF MOISTURE UP TO ICE NUCLEATION PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS...A FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 3000 FT AND LACK OF ANY SNOW REPORTS GREATER THAN A TRACE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THEREFORE HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN COOL THE MOST. HAVE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE GIVEN THAT CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. TUESDAY...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE BEHIND TONIGHT\S SHRTWV. AS A RESULT...INVERSIONS DROP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR PER THE GFS TO 875MB. HAVE KEPT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. BUT THEN AS DIURNAL MIXING STARTS WORKING...COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE. ELSEWHERE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS...EITHER AS A FUNCTION OF LAKE EFFECT OR DAYTIME HEATING WORKING WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT GETTING MIXED IN...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS MAY NOT OCCUR ELSEWHERE. HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES UPWARD SINCE 850MB TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY AND GIVEN HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE TODAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...12Z ECMWF/GFS/UKMET SHOW THE SHRTWV ENTERING NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DIVING SE ACROSS NW MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH IOWA ON WEDNESDAY. NAM IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING A FURTHER EAST POSITION...MOVING IT ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SINCE THE SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO GO PRETTY FAR TO THE WEST...UPPER MICHIGAN WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS. HAVE THEREFORE DECREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THE LAKE EFFECT. AS MENTIONED WITH TONIGHT\S FORECAST...PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SEEMS SMALL BUT WITH COLD AIR MOVING ALOFT WITH THE SHRTWV AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH...HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. DIURNAL MIXING DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY DISRUPT THE LAKE EFFECT AGAIN AS IT DID TODAY. SO FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN...AGAIN FOR A COMBINATION OF EITHER LAKE EFFECT OR INSTABILITY FROM COLD AIR ALOFT IN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS FROM DIURNAL HEATING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GFS/UKMET/ECMWF SHOW ONE MORE SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH THE GFS TURNS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. HPC PREFERENCE WAS MORE TOWARDS THE UKMET WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY CLOSED LOW FORMATION FURTHER TO THE SW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS SHRTWV AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -4 TO -6C (COLDEST EAST)...BUT NO REAL BIG SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS AGAIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS WARM. HIGH PRESSURE FROM MANITOBA BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SHRTWV ON THURSDAY...IN COMBINATION WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING...WILL HELP DIMINISH THE PRECIPITATION EXCEPT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN U.P. WHERE ONSHORE FLOW MAY HELP TO KEEP LAKE EFFECT GOING. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH HALLOWEEN)...MODELS REMAIN IN BOTH GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY SINCE YESTERDAY ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...SO LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL PLANNED TO BUILD OVER UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT...CAUSING CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR WEST. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW FROM THURSDAY MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THEREFORE...BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH DRIFTS SE. ON SUNDAY...THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS...THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS DRY BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. HAVE INCLUDED THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DUE TO THE TROUGH ITSELF. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 337 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 .DISCUSSION...SFC/SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING UPPER LOW WAFFLING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY NEAR LOUISVILLE, KY. DEEPEST MOISTURE IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER BASED ON TAMDAR SOUNDINGS WE STILL HAVE SATURATED AIR THROUGH 800MB RIDING IN OFF LAKE HURON VIA NE 1000-850MB WINDS. THE OVERWATER INSTABILITY (DELTA T'S 14-15C)...UPSLOPE AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN LOWER AND ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH H7 TEMPS AT -10C HAS RESULTED IN AN EXPANSION OF THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NRN LOWER. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WORKING TOWARD TVC...WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS LIKELY CONTAINING GRAUPEL. EASTERN UPPER HAS BEEN ON THE QUIET SIDE OF THINGS WITH THE NE WINDS BEING DOWNSLOPED. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO...WE SEE ANOTHER SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. TEMPS HAVE HELD IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S AS SKIES HAVE FILLED IN WITH STRATO CU. FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES AND POTENTIAL HOLES OPENING UP LATE TONIGHT IN THE NEAR OVC SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH ANY CLEARING EXPECTED. TONIGHT...ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW SOME DECLINE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WE LOSE THE SUN. HOWEVER...H8/H9 TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND -3C...THUS CONTINUING THE OVER-WATER INSTABILITY. THE FLOW REGIME WILL HOLD OUT OF AN 040/050 DIRECTION WITH POSSIBLE SLIGHT BACKING THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE FROM ONTARIO DIPS INTO THE REGION. AM EXPECTING THIS SHORTWAVE TO POSSIBLY ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY RIDING ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON LAKE HURON ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD ALSO PERSIST...AS H9-H7 RH WILL STILL BE RESPECTABLE AROUND 90% WITH STRONGER 1000-850MB WINDS ALLOWING FOR MORE MOISTURE FLUX/TRANSPORT INTO REGIONS NEAR THE THUMB. THIS AREA IS ALSO ONE IN WHICH THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL TAP FROM THE MAIN CHANNEL INTO GEORGIAN BAY. WILL GO WITH LIKELY/NUMEROUS SHOWERS HERE. WAS A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WITH THE SHOWERS...HOWEVER A BLEND (WHICH HAS BEEN BEST) OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL MELTING LAYER STILL AROUND 2500 FEET OVERNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT...THE H9-H7 RH DROPS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN...INTO THE 55-60% RANGE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 3KFT. EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CAA AT H8...FEEL THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL START TO DROP OFF ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE PROBABLY TOO FAST WITH THE DRYING...AS THEY OFTEN ARE...BUT CAN SEE AREAS IN EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER...NOT DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMP READINGS AROUND 30 DEGREES OVERNIGHT...MAYBE UPPER 20S. TUESDAY...UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WHILE WILMA ABSORBS ITSELF INTO THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT...AND QUICKLY RACES NE AND OFF THE U.S. COAST. OUR FLOW BACKS MORE NORTHERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES AWAY FROM NRN MICHIGAN. WILL STILL HAVE H9-H7 RH IN THE 60-65% RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SE CWA BY 00Z FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL END ANY CHANCE FOR MOST OTHER AREAS AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO 4300 FEET AND DRYING IS MUCH GREATER. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST HOWEVER...THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON TO LIKELY BE SEEN IS IN EASTERN UPPER IN DOWNSLOPING REGIME...AWAY FROM THE NRLY WIND COMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH READINGS IN THE 40S. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED AGAIN...THIS TIME THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOR PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO ALABASTER WITH WINDS IN THE 12-25KT RANGE AND WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET. SMD LONG TERM...MODELS HANDLE WILMA PRETTY SIMILARLY WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGING MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN AND CONTINUING WITH 850 MB MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THE REAL DIFFERENCE IS ON THURSDAY WHEN THE GFS CUTS OFF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE NAM/ETA, DOESN'T. THE SFC HIGH, HOWEVER, IS DONE PRETTY SIMILARLY AS WELL. SO WILL BLEND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST. TUESDAY NIGHT...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW TO START OFF THE EVENING WITH THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS (850 MB) STILL IN THERE AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS TIME OF YEAR. UNLESS THE 700-500 LAYER MOISTURE (IN THE 10% RANGE) IS ABLE TO MIX IN THEN IT WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH THE DELTA T AROUND 13C ON THE LAKE HURON SIDE. THE MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 LAYER IS PRETTY THIN, HOWEVER, SO WILL GO WITH THE CLOUDS, BUT NOT THE RAIN SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE IN AND WITH THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH INCREASING 80% AND THE SFC ISOBARS STILL WITH CYCLONIC FLOW, WOULD EXPECT THAT RAIN SHOWERS WILL START IN THE WEST AND THEN BY THE AFTERNOON, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BOTH MODELS HAVE THE SHORTWAVE MOVING AT LEAST INTO THE REGION WITH A SOMEWHAT SATURATED PROFILE AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SO WITH THE DELTA T AROUND 14C WOULD EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND A MIX INLAND IN THE HIGHLANDS. THURSDAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH ACCORDING TO THE NAM/ETA AND THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. THE GFS HANGS ONTO THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE REGION SO AS A COMPROMISE, HAVE RAIN IN THE SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A LITTLE LESS SPREAD TODAY FROM THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND ARE POINTING TOWARD THE GFS OPERATIONAL AS THE WAY TO GO. ECMWF IS GOING THE WAY OF THE GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL AS WELL. SO THE FORECAST WILL LOOK LIKE THIS...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO STAY IN PLACE. MEANWHILE AT 500 MB, THE SHORTWAVE CUTS OFF AND SITS OVER THE REGION. SO THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ADDING THEM UNTIL THE NEXT RUN OR TWO. MONDAY, A COLD FRONT AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES, SO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LUTZ && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi