FXUS66 KHNX 060924
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
220 AM PDT MON SEP 6 2004

.SHORT TERM...FOR INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
UNDER UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOCAL FROM 
REACHING THE CWA. OTHERWISE...RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL 
REMAIN DOMINANT FEATURES THRU WED WITH H85 TEMPS REMAINING BETWEEN 
24-26C AND SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE MAXES ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
INTERIOR. SHORT RANGE PROGS ARE SIMILAR PROEJCTING RIDGE REORIENTING 
OVER THE DESERT SW TUES NGT/WED WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY BACKING 
TO THE SE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO 
ADVECT TOWARD THE DISTRICT...OTHERWISE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY AND 
STABLE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM...FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION 
OF THE ECM...ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP THE 50H RIDGE 
HANGING TOUGH OVER CENTRAL CA THRU FRI. THE GFS IS STILL TRYING TO 
TAP INTO SOME MID-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLED OFF THE COAST OF 
BAJA CA DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RICHEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN 
THIS IDEA...WILL NOT MAKE ANY ALTERATIONS TO SKY COVER GRIDS AT THIS 
TIME. THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND AND FORECAST
A SHALLOW 50H TROF TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO CA WITH INCREASED ONSHORE
FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE OVERZEALOUS WITH 
THE TROF AND THE CAA ACCOMPANYING IT DURING THE 2ND PART OF THE 
WKEND. ON SUNDAY...FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS DROPS 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 
MID TEENS(CELSIUS) ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. THIS TRANSLATES 
TO MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN WESTERN MERCED CO SUNDAY WHICH IS 
AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WILL TAKE A CONSERVATIVE 
APPROACH WITH THE COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND GIVEN HOW AGGRESSIVE 
THE GFS MODEL USUALLY IS AT DEEPENING TROFS ALONG THE WEST COAST 
THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THRU THE 
PERIOD.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

JSN/DURFEE