98 APRIL, 1908
new theory. Observation, experiment, hypothesis, philosophy,
and theory follow each other in rapid succession. Mathemati-
cal seminaries, experimental laboratories, and observations
under natural conditions must all be maintained. The pro-
gress of every branch of science as recorded in the literature
of the last three hundred years shows an instructive series of
failures and successes. The experiments of Alexander Wilson
in 1749 were not repeated until the importance of upper air
exploration was realized and until the students of the modern
weather map perceived that long-range forecasts and even
daily forecasts will never become satisfactory until we fully
understand the upper currents and th6 general circulation of
the atmosphere. It is to the study of this latter subject that
kites and balloons, mountain statione and cloud observations
are now essential, while the interpretation of the results needs
the help of the best mathematical physicists.
It is often stated as a reproof to eminent philosophers that
they are not practical ” that they ‘( know ” but can not ccdo.”
However, in the case of Popof, as of very many meteorologists,
the money needed for practical work was not available and
he could only mark out the methods and the paths for others
to pursue. Fortunate is the “practical man ” who has reliable
theoretical men to guide him in the exploration of nature.
The captain of a vessel would be hopelessly lost at sea if there
was no navigating officer to show the course.-C. A.
IUE UOLUMNS IN GRAVELLY SOIL.
By E D. BOURNE Dated Taylomville, Ky., February B, 1908.
I n the MONTHLY WFATHER REVIEW for October, 1907, is a
notice of an artiole on the formation of ice columns in grav-
elly soil, by Professor Goto, and the statement that. an en-
deavor would be made to get a translation, or abstract of the
same. I have been interested, in an unscientific way, in this sub-
ject for years. About thirty years ago I noticed that occasion-
ally a tiny column would shoot up above the general level of
the group. Upon investigation I found that every one of
these taller columns formed on a seed of horseweed (tall rag-
weed), and always on the end opposite to the germ end.
I have at various times made similar examinations ’ and
always found the same result.
POPOF AND W A N ON THE UBE OF KITES IN ME!l!EOROLOGYp
In 1893 Professor Harrington took up the development of
kite work in the Weather Bureau and during the years 1895,
1896,1897 in successive numbers of the MONTHLY WEATHER
REVIEW we publisht various historical references to those
who advocated or used the kite as a means of sending aloft our meteorological apparatus. We now take pleasure in referring
to still another instance that has lately come to our knowledge
and that is eminently worthy of being added to the record. We allude to a memoir by Prof. A. Popof, of Moscow and
&zany published in Russian in the Journal of the Wnister.of
Public Education for September, 1846, but known to us only
thru an abstract publisht in 1849 by Prof. A. Erman at p.
37d-385 Vol. VI1 of his Archives of Science in Russia. Al-
tho Professor Erman is most widely known by his important
works in terrestrial magnetism yet his interest in climatology
is shown by many articlesin his archives and on every page of his Journey Around the Globe. His profound knowledge
of dynamic meteorology is illustrated by his memoir of Feb-
ruary, 1868, on the general circulation of the atmosphere pub-
h h t in Vol. LXX of the Astronomische Nachrichten. I n the present case Erman, writing in 1849, prefaces his
abstract of Popof’s memoir of 1846, by the remark:
It is to be regretted that the paper kite which in Franklin’s hands brought us such important conclusions as to the electrlcity of the atmos- phere is now scracely noticed by physicists. By glvlng i t a proper size
thls apparatus can, however. be applied with great advantage to the determination of the temperature, the wind directlon, and the quantity of aqueousvaporin the upper etrata of the atmosphere. Indeed for
emall altitudes it has some advantage over balloons, since kites stand for a long time almost immovable so that one can determine the altltude by other mean8 than by angular measurements which take up much time and demand special apparatus. For such altitude determinations
the equation of the curved line formed by the kitegtring seems appro- priate and therefore the mathematical expreselons leading to this end will here be given, and the meteorologists will have to use these in order to determine the altitude of the kite itself or the altitude of any point
on its string. Erman adds that if elastic springs be inserted in the kite line at the
reel and again higher up say at the kite and records be made of the ten-
sions at any moment then a simple formula will give the altitude of the
upper sprlng.
We need hardly repeat the mathematical formulas of Popof,
or Erman’s improvements thereon; they may well be useful
when the kites are not too high and the wind fairly uniform,
but are not adapted to the irregularities of atmospheric cur-
rents and will not give the accuracy demanded in the modern
practise of flying many kites tandem in order to attain the
great altitudes that the Hargrave kite has now brought within
our reach. It is interesting to reflect that if Professor Popof
could have put his ideas into practical execution in Russia in
1846 meteorology might have gained fifty years over its pres-
ent condition. As a rule, however, knowledge progresses
by a system of irregular steps, first an idea, then an experi-
ment; fist the failure of an old theory then the starting of a
FORECASTING ON THE PACIFIC COAST.
By Prof. ALEXANDER G. MCAIJIE. Dated Stan Fnmciw, Cal., Febrtary 4,1908.
In an address delivered before the British Association in
1902, Prof. Arthur Echuster exprest the opinion that (‘me-
teorology might be advanced more rapidly if all routine ob-
servations were stopped for a period of five years, the energy
of observers being concentrated on the discussion of the re-
suits already obtained.” The accompanying article describes
an attempt to partially meet the criticism by utilizing, for
forecasting work on the Pacific coast, the charts published
each month in the MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW. No working
meteorologist will fully agree with Doctor Schuster’s opinion
exprest above; yet the need of further study of the data
now accumulated is evident and the limitations of our present
methods manifest. And yet, has not too much been expected
in the matter of forecasts. I f not at the present time, cer-
tainly in the past, results have been expected entirely incom-
mensurate with the facts and data furnished. Nor is there any
present method of verification which does or can do full justice
to the forecaster.
I n recent years the recognition of the part played by the
larger pressure areas, the so-called permanent and subperma-
nent cont.inenta1 and oceanic areas, has given the forecaster a
possible means for undertaking seasonal forecasts with some
prospect of succecls. The importance of extending the area
of reports is now more than .ever recognized. With the ex-
ception of the exploration of the upper air, the study of sea-
sonal displacements of the areas of sea-level pressure offers
the most promising field for helpful work in forecasting.
Over the Pacific Ocean, plainly, not less but more observa-
tions are needed. Absence of reports now handicaps the fore-
casters on the Asiatic as well as on the American side of the
Pacific. It is conceivable that with a close working coopera-
tion be tween the Japanese, Indian, Chinese, and Philippine
weather services and those of Mexico and the United States,
including Alaska and British Columbia, aided by the receipt
of wireless weather measages from vessels at sea, the fore-
casting officials of these services would bein a position to un-
dertake general forecasts for a period of a week or longer,
eventually determining seasonal forecasts. And it may not
be amiss to call attention to the excellent work done in fore-
casting on the Pacific coast, and to say that, valuable as the
daily forecasts have been, the same degree of efficiency for