QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST

 
 FXUS04 KWBC 141855
 QPFPFD
  
 QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
 154 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2009
  
  
 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
 VALID FEB 15/0000 UTC THRU FEB 16/0000 UTC
 REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
  
  
 ...DAY 1...
 
 ...SYNOPSIS...
 LOW AMPLITUDE ZONAL FLOW WL CONT ACRS THE BULK OF THE CONUS THIS
 PD WITH SVRL IMPULSES XPCTD TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR MOSTLY LGT PCPN E
 OF THE SIERRA/CASCADES. DEEP TROF DVLPG OFF THE WCST TDA WL
 DEEPENG/BCM ANCHORED WITH HVY PCPN MOVG INTO MOSTLY CA THIS PD.
 SBTRPCL STREAM WL CONT TO REMAIN ACTV WITH ADDTNL MOD/HVY PCPN
 ALNG THE GULF CST.
 
 ...GRT LKS/NERN U.S....
 SPOTTY LGT LK EFFECT SNWS ARE XPCTD TO THE LEE OF THE GRT LKS AS
 COLD NRLY FLOW DVLPS. A SWATH OF LGT PCPN WL FALL THIS EVE ACRS
 THE NRN MID ATLC CSTL AREAS AS A WEAKENG MIDLVL SHRTWV RACES OVR
 THE REGION. WRAP ARND MSTR INTO ME WL CONT TO SUPPORT SOME LGT
 SNWS.
 
 ...GULF CST...
 NEXT IMPULSE IN THE SBTRPCL JET STREAM HAS ALRDY SUPPORTED CNVCTN
 THIS MRNG OVR WRN TX UNDER A POCKET OF RATHER IMPRVS 8H/7H
 WAA/THETA-E ADV IN COMBINATION WITH DECENT ELEV CAPE. THIS WAA WL
 SPRD EWD AS THE MIDLVL ENERGY ALSO MOVS EWD. OLD WRM FNTL BNDRY
 REMAINS CLS TO THE GULF CST WITH A CDFNT PUSHG TWD THE REGION FM
 THE NW. 12Z MDLS HAV AGN TRENDED S WITH THE AXIS OF
 PCPN...COMPARED TO PRVS RUNS. LATEST VSBL SATL PICS SHOW WHAT
 LOOKS LIKE WEAK GRAVITY WAVES MOVG SWD INTO THE GULF OF MEX...WITH
 RDRS SHOWG CNVCTN ALSO MOVG SWD. SO THERE ARE ONGOING SIGNALS TO
 SUPPORT THE SWD SHIFT IN THE GUID. SREF/GEFS MEMBERS ARE ALSO
 SHOWG THE HVIER RNFL RGT ALNG THE NRN GULF CSTL AREA. THIS WAS THE
 CORRECT MOV YSTRDA...SO WL FOLLOW THE LEAD OF THE GUID AGN TDA.
 ZONE OF HIER PWS...ARND 1.50 INCHES REMAINS CLS TO THE CST AND
 SLOLY DROPS SWD TNGT/SUN. THERE REMAINS A ZONE OF E/W ORIENTED
 MSTR FLUX IN THE 8H/7H LYR...SO THE THREAT FOR HVY RNFL WL AGN
 EXIST. HVIEST RNFL SHLD XTND FM SRN LA TO NRN FL WHERE SOME 1-2
 INCH RNFL AMTS ARE PSBL.
 
 ...ROCKIES/NRN HI PLNS...
 WEAK MIDLVL SHRTWV ENERGY COMBINED WITH LINGERG MIDLVL MSTR WL
 SUPPORT SOME LGT PCPN ACRS THE REGION.
 
 ...WA/OR/CA...
 EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP EPAC/WCST VORTEX IS WELL UNDERWAY THIS
 AFTN...PER WV SATL PICS...BUT MDLS ARE STILL SHOWG SUBTLE DIFFS
 WITH THE EXACT LAT/LON PLACEMENT OF THE VORTEX. THIS WL AFFECT THE
 ZONE OF BEST LOLVL INFLOW/UPR DIFL AND LKLY HVIER PCPN TOTALS.
 GNRLY FOLLOWED THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS/CAN WHICH ALL HAD THE PCPN
 AREAS IN THE SAME GNRLY AREAS. 12Z ECMWF IS ALSO IN STG AGREEMENT.
 UPR FLOW WL BCM QUITE DIFL/DVRG TNGT AS UPR JET COUPLG DLVPS OVR
 THE REGION THAT WL SUPPORT INCRSG DEEP LYRD ASCENT. AT THE SAME
 TIME INCRSG ONSHORE FLOW WL PULL SOME PAC MSTR INTO THE REGION
 WITH PWS XPCTD TO BE IN THE 0.50-0.75 INCH RNFL. THESE AMTS ARE NR
 SEASONAL NRMLS...BUT WL WL AIMED IN THE SAME GNRL AREAS FOR MUCH
 OF PD. 8H FLOW ARND 50 KTS COMBINED WITH THE MSTR IS SUPPORTG MSTR
 FLUX ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STDS ABV NRML. NOT REALLY HI...BUT AGN THEY
 ARE FCST TO REMAIN FOCUSED INTO THE SAME REGION FOR A LENGTHY PD
 OF TIME. BEST OROGRPAHIC LIFT WL BE FOCUSED ALNG THE CSTL RNGS AND
 SHASTA/SISKIYOU AREAS WHERE SOME 2-3 INCH AMTS ARE PSBL THIS PD.
 LGT PCPN WL SPRD NWD INTO OR/WA ALNG THE HIER ELEVS...WITH SOME
 LGTR PCPN SPRDG OVR THE SPINE OF THE SIERRA. LATEST SREF SOLUS ARE
 ALSO HIGHLIGHTG THE CSTL RNGS FOR SOME GRTR THAN TWO INCH
 AMTS...WITH THE LATEST GEFS PACKAGE SHOWG A SLGT INCRS IN MEMBERS
 WITH OVR TWO INCHES OF PCPN ALNG THE CSTL RNGS.
 
 ECKERT
 
 GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
  
 24HR QP VT 16/00Z
  0.01 454658 449663 450669 452675 456688 454699 453704 460708 
       474704 484690 490670 487658 478656 459658 454658 
  0.01 424859 421861 422865 428867 436868 457865 463871 469883 
       479882 481872 491872 501868 496852 476842 453843 447849 
       442855 436856 427859 424859 
  0.01 474125 471130 477138 493150 508156 502143 487130 481126 
       477125 474125 
  0.01 386067 382067 379066 376067 373073 374081 383080 390083 
       399087 404080 414076 423071 429063 430053 439049 439058 
       436071 442076 450081 461081 463069 468063 473074 486068 
       493057 506044 499018 483994 468988 464001 455015 445017 
       437017 430023 422028 414028 410038 404051 393058 390061 
       387065 386067 
  0.01 468272 479251 480238 475234 469232 468227 474221 482212 
       479203 472204 462202 459203 455208 452205 457190 462176 
       456168 454159 444151 436150 439164 445173 440184 438198 
       442206 441211 432207 423199 417196 408193 401190 388187 
       372182 357179 345185 339192 336203 325217 316232 316246 
       337263 360265 388272 410278 429286 447288 468272 
  0.01 453828 448822 432817 427818 424821 427826 435831 447832 
       453828 
  0.01 426097 426102 422103 420104 419111 415116 416120 422118 
       431116 441119 449126 453138 458146 473158 493175 510183 
       512176 493160 478150 469141 463131 458127 461118 469113 
       464101 450093 436093 433091 427089 424092 426097 
  0.01 407728 403721 398726 396737 394760 397771 402767 411764 
       417769 420763 411743 409737 407728 
  0.01 351189 350191 350194 351197 354199 357198 360198 363199 
       366197 365194 362191 357188 353188 351189 
  0.01 274839 266876 264912 270926 276949 279955 283958 294957 
       305952 325952 339956 350950 354937 347925 337907 333875 
       327846 326819 324787 318770 309766 299770 287785 280805 
       278817 274839 
  0.01 270992 268985 267978 266974 264971 260969 255968 251968 
       247970 244974 246980 253982 257986 260993 266995 269994 
       270992 
  0.25 443269 445264 445259 444250 441244 438240 434237 429235 
       424234 421230 417229 417225 418219 417212 417209 416207 
       413206 407206 401202 388196 379192 375194 375198 374202 
       372205 369205 363202 359201 357202 349201 345206 341213 
       337218 333223 329229 329234 331237 336241 344243 349247 
       358251 366254 382258 388258 397260 413266 427272 433274 
       437274 443269 
  0.25 441223 439220 437219 434218 431219 429220 427221 426223 
       427224 430224 433225 436224 439224 441223 
  0.25 276878 277906 279920 285931 290937 298939 308936 316930 
       321922 321904 317887 315870 313852 314820 312797 308789 
       301789 294796 290807 286820 281845 278859 276878 
  0.50 439259 438254 435249 431243 425238 416232 415226 417220 
       416215 414212 412212 409212 398204 394202 387201 382203 
       379210 375211 368209 363206 361204 357205 353206 348210 
       341219 338223 335227 336233 339235 343236 350236 356239 
       367246 377251 389254 396255 403257 417262 424264 431266 
       436264 439259 
  0.50 295804 287828 282850 281874 282894 284913 289920 296924 
       303924 308919 310909 309886 306858 308827 307804 304798 
       295804 
  1.00 425254 424247 421243 413237 412231 414223 415218 413215 
       411216 408216 405215 403212 399209 394207 391207 389209 
       388211 389215 391218 389219 387218 385219 382221 380221 
       377219 377216 375214 373214 369215 365214 362212 356211 
       353213 349216 344223 342226 344228 350229 358228 365229 
       370232 374240 382245 387248 393250 404252 415256 425254 
  1.00 290833 288856 288879 292889 295889 297877 301842 301825 
       301817 297820 290833 
  2.00 371217 370218 370220 370222 371223 372220 371217 
  2.00 386234 392234 398235 403240 405243 403245 396244 389239 
       386234 
  2.00 411225 411222 411220 410221 408222 406223 405225 405227 
       407226 409226 411225 
  2.00 356221 363220 364218 363216 361215 358216 355218 354219 
       355219 356221