000
FXUS63 KGLD 141728
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1028 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
304 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2009
UPPER FLOW WILL START FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND THEN
TRANSITION TO A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES THAT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
PLAINS BY MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE POPS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AND FOG.
THE NAM/GFS SHOWS THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY
18Z TODAY AND ONGOING TONIGHT. DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AND MOISTURE IS
LACKING ALSO. GUIDANCE POPS ARE ALMOST NIL SO WILL FOLLOW THE TREND
AND DOWNGRADE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
LATEST SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT/METARS SHOW FOG DEVELOPING IN THE AREA.
PLAN TO INCLUDE FOG IN THIS FORECAST THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER RH
INCREASES TONIGHT TO 90 PERCENT OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE NAM INDICATES THAT THIS HIGH RH DOES NOT DECREASE
UNTIL AFTER 15Z SUN. CONSEQUENTLY HAVE ADDED AREAS AND PATCHY FOG.
850 TEMPERATURES STAY COLD TODAY AND THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH MONDAY. CONSEQUENTLY DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET PAST FREEZING TODAY ESPECIALLY
WITH SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATES WILL MODERATE SOME SO
THAT MINS SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
1027 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... CONDITIONS AT KMCK HAVE RAPIDLY IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST HALF HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO DUE SO AS THE TERMINAL
RETURNS TO VFR CONDITIONS. KGLD WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE
AN ISSUE AGAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AGAIN AROUND 05Z.
KJ
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 141133
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
433 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
304 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2009
UPPER FLOW WILL START FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND THEN
TRANSITION TO A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES THAT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
PLAINS BY MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE POPS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AND FOG.
THE NAM/GFS SHOWS THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY
18Z TODAY AND ONGOING TONIGHT. DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AND MOISTURE IS
LACKING ALSO. GUIDANCE POPS ARE ALMOST NIL SO WILL FOLLOW THE TREND
AND DOWNGRADE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
LATEST SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT/METARS SHOW FOG DEVELOPING IN THE AREA.
PLAN TO INCLUDE FOG IN THIS FORECAST THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER RH
INCREASES TONIGHT TO 90 PERCENT OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE NAM INDICATES THAT THIS HIGH RH DOES NOT DECREASE
UNTIL AFTER 15Z SUN. CONSEQUENTLY HAVE ADDED AREAS AND PATCHY FOG.
850 TEMPERATURES STAY COLD TODAY AND THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH MONDAY. CONSEQUENTLY DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET PAST FREEZING TODAY ESPECIALLY
WITH SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATES WILL MODERATE SOME SO
THAT MINS SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
433 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2009
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...CIGS AND VIS HAS DROPPED OVER KGLD TO IFR/LIFR
AND HAVE KEPT A TEMPO IN CASE CIGS AND VIS RISE THROUGH 15Z. WINDS
HAVE BECOME LIGHT OVER BOTH TAF SITES HOWEVER EXPECT THEM TO PICK
UP LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER KGLD WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 15KTS AND 10KTS AT KMCK. CIGS AND VIS OVER KGLD
WILL IMPROVE AS STRATUS DECK NEAR 2-3KFT IS TO MOVE IN OVER BOTH
SITES TODAY BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH EXPECTED FOG
AFTER 06Z.
KTB
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 141004
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
304 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
304 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2009
UPPER FLOW WILL START FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND THEN
TRANSITION TO A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES THAT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
PLAINS BY MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE POPS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AND FOG.
THE NAM/GFS SHOWS THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY
18Z TODAY AND ONGOING TONIGHT. DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AND MOISTURE IS
LACKING ALSO. GUIDANCE POPS ARE ALMOST NIL SO WILL FOLLOW THE TREND
AND DOWNGRADE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
LATEST SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT/METARS SHOW FOG DEVELOPING IN THE AREA.
PLAN TO INCLUDE FOG IN THIS FORECAST THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER RH
INCREASES TONIGHT TO 90 PERCENT OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE NAM INDICATES THAT THIS HIGH RH DOES NOT DECREASE
UNTIL AFTER 15Z SUN. CONSEQUENTLY HAVE ADDED AREAS AND PATCHY FOG.
850 TEMPERATURES STAY COLD TODAY AND THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH MONDAY. CONSEQUENTLY DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET PAST FREEZING TODAY ESPECIALLY
WITH SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATES WILL MODERATE SOME SO
THAT MINS SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
935 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2009
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...COMPLICATED SITUATION WITH CIGS IN THE AREA
THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY KGLD UNDER IFR WITH OVC007 WHILE LOW
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KMCK. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO HANG IN AT
KGLD OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH KMCK IS CURRENTLY CLEAR, LOW IFR CIGS ARE JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE TERMINAL. WILL KEEP THOSE CLOUDS WEST OF THE
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT, BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THOSE LOW
CLOUDS FIND THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE KMCK AREA. WINDS AT BOTH SITES
WILL PICK UP GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TO AROUND 10-15KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS..ESPECIALLY
AT KGLD. AT KGLD..CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE LOWER CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND 02Z-04Z. AT KMCK..BARRING RETURN OF LOW CIGS
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE IN TAF CYCLE.
GJG
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO GOODLAND
000
FXUS63 KGLD 140446
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
946 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2009/
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2009/
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
ONE ITEM TO ADDRESS IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. GIVEN SATURATED/NEAR
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER/RECENT SNOWMELT TODAY AND LOW T/TD
DEPRESSIONS AND LATEST RUC/NAM/MOS GUIDANCE VIS FORECASTS CANT
RULE OUT SOME FOG. I HAVE INCLUDED SOME FOG OVER THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE AREA...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WITH
TONIGHTS WEATHER SYSTEM. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
VISIBILITIES BUT FOR NOW IT WOULD SEEM LIKE DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THE QUICKLY APPROACHING CLOUDINESS
WILL LIMIT AN APPRECIABLE DURATION.
OTHERWISE...AS TODAYS STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHEAST
(LEAVING ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE TO AS MUCH
AS 3-5 INCHES NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE IN THE ADVISORY AREA)
ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LOW CENTER NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE OREGON/NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. TONIGHTS IMPULSE DOES HAVE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND THE NOSE OF A 250MB JET
MOVING ACROSS TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OR 2/3 OF THE AREA. FOR SATURDAY SOME LIGHT
SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA WHERE
850-500 MOISTURE IS MAXIMIZED.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER RIDGING CENTERS ITSELF
OVER THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MAY HAVE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL AS STRATUS (CONFINED TO
THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA) BUT OVERALL MORE SUN THEN PREVIOUS
DAYS AND NOTICEABLY WARMER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO
MID 30S SOUTH...WARMING SUNDAY INTO THE MID 30S NORTH AND MID 40S
SOUTH. FOR MONDAY WILL START THINGS OFF WITH MID 40S NORTH TO MID
50S SOUTH...BASED ON 850 TEMPERATURES AND FULL MIXING THESE
NUMBERS COULD BE UP TO 5F WARMER...WILL WAIT AND SEE.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
TUESDAY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF THE AREA WELL INTO THE 50S WITH 60S VERY POSSIBLE. FURTHER
NORTH A LITTLE MORE DISAGREEMENT IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH
MID 40S FOR NOW. TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES` PASSAGE WILL DICTATE
HOW LONG THE COLDER AIR LINGERS OR RETREATS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKS INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST WITH LOW TO MID
40S...FURTHER EAST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS NEAR 40.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH TROUGHS OVER THE EAST COAST AND OFF THE
WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
935 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2009
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...COMPLICATED SITUATION WITH CIGS IN THE AREA
THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY KGLD UNDER IFR WITH OVC007 WHILE LOW
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KMCK. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO HANG IN AT
KGLD OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH KMCK IS CURRENTLY CLEAR, LOW IFR CIGS ARE JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE TERMINAL. WILL KEEP THOSE CLOUDS WEST OF THE
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT, BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THOSE LOW
CLOUDS FIND THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE KMCK AREA. WINDS AT BOTH SITES
WILL PICK UP GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TO AROUND 10-15KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS..ESPECIALLY
AT KGLD. AT KGLD..CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE LOWER CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND 02Z-04Z. AT KMCK..BARRING RETURN OF LOW CIGS
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE IN TAF CYCLE.
GJG
&&
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/99
000
FXUS63 KGLD 132343
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
443 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2009/
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
ONE ITEM TO ADDRESS IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. GIVEN SATURATED/NEAR
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER/RECENT SNOWMELT TODAY AND LOW T/TD
DEPRESSIONS AND LATEST RUC/NAM/MOS GUIDANCE VIS FORECASTS CANT
RULE OUT SOME FOG. I HAVE INCLUDED SOME FOG OVER THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE AREA...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WITH
TONIGHTS WEATHER SYSTEM. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
VISIBILITIES BUT FOR NOW IT WOULD SEEM LIKE DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THE QUICKLY APPROACHING CLOUDINESS
WILL LIMIT AN APPRECIABLE DURATION.
OTHERWISE...AS TODAYS STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHEAST
(LEAVING ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE TO AS MUCH
AS 3-5 INCHES NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE IN THE ADVISORY AREA)
ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LOW CENTER NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE OREGON/NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. TONIGHTS IMPULSE DOES HAVE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND THE NOSE OF A 250MB JET
MOVING ACROSS TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OR 2/3 OF THE AREA. FOR SATURDAY SOME LIGHT
SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA WHERE
850-500 MOISTURE IS MAXIMIZED.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER RIDGING CENTERS ITSELF
OVER THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MAY HAVE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL AS STRATUS (CONFINED TO
THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA) BUT OVERALL MORE SUN THEN PREVIOUS
DAYS AND NOTICEABLY WARMER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO
MID 30S SOUTH...WARMING SUNDAY INTO THE MID 30S NORTH AND MID 40S
SOUTH. FOR MONDAY WILL START THINGS OFF WITH MID 40S NORTH TO MID
50S SOUTH...BASED ON 850 TEMPERATURES AND FULL MIXING THESE
NUMBERS COULD BE UP TO 5F WARMER...WILL WAIT AND SEE.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
TUESDAY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF THE AREA WELL INTO THE 50S WITH 60S VERY POSSIBLE. FURTHER
NORTH A LITTLE MORE DISAGREEMENT IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH
MID 40S FOR NOW. TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES` PASSAGE WILL DICTATE
HOW LONG THE COLDER AIR LINGERS OR RETREATS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKS INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST WITH LOW TO MID
40S...FURTHER EAST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS NEAR 40.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH TROUGHS OVER THE EAST COAST AND OFF THE
WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
435 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...BOTH TERMINALS MAY SEE LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG
AS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WINDS DIE OFF WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENT. WINDS AT BOTH SITES WILL PICK UP GENERALLY FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO AROUND 10KTS. CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS..PARTICULARLY
AT KMCK..BEFORE LOWER CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS RETURN JUST
OUTSIDE OF THIS TAF CYCLE..AROUND 6Z.
GJG
&&
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/99
000
FXUS63 KGLD 132105
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
205 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
ONE ITEM TO ADDRESS IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. GIVEN SATURATED/NEAR
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER/RECENT SNOWMELT TODAY AND LOW T/TD
DEPRESSIONS AND LATEST RUC/NAM/MOS GUIDANCE VIS FORECASTS CANT
RULE OUT SOME FOG. I HAVE INCLUDED SOME FOG OVER THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE AREA...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WITH
TONIGHTS WEATHER SYSTEM. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
VISIBILITIES BUT FOR NOW IT WOULD SEEM LIKE DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THE QUICKLY APPROACHING CLOUDINESS
WILL LIMIT AN APPRECIABLE DURATION.
OTHERWISE...AS TODAYS STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHEAST
(LEAVING ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE TO AS MUCH
AS 3-5 INCHES NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE IN THE ADVISORY AREA)
ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LOW CENTER NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE OREGON/NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. TONIGHTS IMPULSE DOES HAVE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND THE NOSE OF A 250MB JET
MOVING ACROSS TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OR 2/3 OF THE AREA. FOR SATURDAY SOME LIGHT
SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA WHERE
850-500 MOISTURE IS MAXIMIZED.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER RIDGING CENTERS ITSELF
OVER THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MAY HAVE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL AS STRATUS (CONFINED TO
THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA) BUT OVERALL MORE SUN THEN PREVIOUS
DAYS AND NOTICEABLY WARMER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO
MID 30S SOUTH...WARMING SUNDAY INTO THE MID 30S NORTH AND MID 40S
SOUTH. FOR MONDAY WILL START THINGS OFF WITH MID 40S NORTH TO MID
50S SOUTH...BASED ON 850 TEMPERATURES AND FULL MIXING THESE
NUMBERS COULD BE UP TO 5F WARMER...WILL WAIT AND SEE.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
TUESDAY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF THE AREA WELL INTO THE 50S WITH 60S VERY POSSIBLE. FURTHER
NORTH A LITTLE MORE DISAGREEMENT IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH
MID 40S FOR NOW. TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES` PASSAGE WILL DICTATE
HOW LONG THE COLDER AIR LINGERS OR RETREATS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKS INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST WITH LOW TO MID
40S...FURTHER EAST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS NEAR 40.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH TROUGHS OVER THE EAST COAST AND OFF THE
WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
1033 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... SNOW IS ENDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS HEIGHTS IMPROVING RAPIDLY. BOTH
TERMINALS MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND
SUNSET AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
BOTH TERMINALS MAY SEE FOG AND/OR STRATUS AS THE OVERNIGHT WINDS
DIE OFF AND WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...TIMING
SEEMS TO BE AFTER 09Z WITH CONDITIONS HITTING IFR/LIFR.
KJ
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 131846
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1146 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2009
.UPDATE...
1143 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2009
HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS
THE SNOW IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED
GREATLY FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING.
KJ
&&
.DISCUSSION...
246 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2009
THE 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
TEX/OK PANHANDLE. KGLD RADAR GETTING RETURNS FROM THE NORTHWEST
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW REPORTED NEARBY. LOW CAN BE SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE BACK IN ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES INCLUDE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS AND POPS
SATURDAY.
THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLY LOWER QPF THE STORM MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TODAY.
SNOW SLOW GETTING STARTED EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR SNOW FALL IS
LIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. BOTH THE
GFS/NAM INDICATE THIS STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY WITH
SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER BY 18Z. CONSEQUENTLY THE WINDOW FOR SNOW IS
ABOUT 6 HOURS LONG. DO NOT THINK THIS WILL BE LONG ENOUGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR WARNING CRITERIA WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
CURRENT MODEL QPF WHICH YIELDS A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT AREA. CONSEQUENTLY THE WARNING WILL NEED
TO BE DOWNGRADED BY NECESSITY DUE TO THE LACK OF SNOWFALL. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A LOW END ADVISORY WITH WINDS NOT THAT MUCH OF A
CONCERN. SEE DETAILS BELOW CONCERNING THE HIGHLIGHT CHANGE. PLAN TO
KEEP HIGH POPS THROUGH THE EVENT SINCE SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW COMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LOOK GOOD ENOUGH FOR CHANCE POPS. SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABOVE THE MORNING LOWS
WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN...SNOW AND CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBJECT TO A SNOW FIELD AND CLEARING SKIES RESULTING IN MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STILL BE
NEAR 30 WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING SUNDAY.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
1033 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... SNOW IS ENDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS HEIGHTS IMPROVING RAPIDLY. BOTH TERMINALS MAY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. THE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT. BOTH TERMINALS MAY SEE FOG AND/OR
STRATUS AS THE OVERNIGHT WINDS DIE OFF AND WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...TIMING SEEMS TO BE AFTER 09Z WITH
CONDITIONS HITTING IFR/LIFR.
KJ
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 131734
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1034 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...
246 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2009
THE 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
TEX/OK PANHANDLE. KGLD RADAR GETTING RETURNS FROM THE NORTHWEST
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW REPORTED NEARBY. LOW CAN BE SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE BACK IN ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES INCLUDE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS AND POPS
SATURDAY.
THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLY LOWER QPF THE STORM MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TODAY.
SNOW SLOW GETTING STARTED EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR SNOW FALL IS
LIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. BOTH THE
GFS/NAM INDICATE THIS STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY WITH
SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER BY 18Z. CONSEQUENTLY THE WINDOW FOR SNOW IS
ABOUT 6 HOURS LONG. DO NOT THINK THIS WILL BE LONG ENOUGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR WARNING CRITERIA WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
CURRENT MODEL QPF WHICH YIELDS A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT AREA. CONSEQUENTLY THE WARNING WILL NEED
TO BE DOWNGRADED BY NECESSITY DUE TO THE LACK OF SNOWFALL. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A LOW END ADVISORY WITH WINDS NOT THAT MUCH OF A
CONCERN. SEE DETAILS BELOW CONCERNING THE HIGHLIGHT CHANGE. PLAN TO
KEEP HIGH POPS THROUGH THE EVENT SINCE SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW COMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LOOK GOOD ENOUGH FOR CHANCE POPS. SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABOVE THE MORNING LOWS
WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN...SNOW AND CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBJECT TO A SNOW FIELD AND CLEARING SKIES RESULTING IN MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STILL BE
NEAR 30 WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING SUNDAY.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
1033 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... SNOW IS ENDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS HEIGHTS IMPROVING RAPIDLY. BOTH TERMINALS MAY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. THE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT. BOTH TERMINALS MAY SEE FOG AND/OR
STRATUS AS THE OVERNIGHT WINDS DIE OFF AND WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...TIMING SEEMS TO BE AFTER 09Z WITH
CONDITIONS HITTING IFR/LIFR.
KJ
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001>004-013>016.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ079>081.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 131136
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
436 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...
246 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2009
THE 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
TEX/OK PANHANDLE. KGLD RADAR GETTING RETURNS FROM THE NORTHWEST
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW REPORTED NEARBY. LOW CAN BE SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE BACK IN ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES INCLUDE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS AND POPS
SATURDAY.
THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLY LOWER QPF THE STORM MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TODAY.
SNOW SLOW GETTING STARTED EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR SNOW FALL IS
LIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. BOTH THE
GFS/NAM INDICATE THIS STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY WITH
SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER BY 18Z. CONSEQUENTLY THE WINDOW FOR SNOW IS
ABOUT 6 HOURS LONG. DO NOT THINK THIS WILL BE LONG ENOUGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR WARNING CRITERIA WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
CURRENT MODEL QPF WHICH YIELDS A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT AREA. CONSEQUENTLY THE WARNING WILL NEED
TO BE DOWNGRADED BY NECESSITY DUE TO THE LACK OF SNOWFALL. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A LOW END ADVISORY WITH WINDS NOT THAT MUCH OF A
CONCERN. SEE DETAILS BELOW CONCERNING THE HIGHLIGHT CHANGE. PLAN TO
KEEP HIGH POPS THROUGH THE EVENT SINCE SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW COMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LOOK GOOD ENOUGH FOR CHANCE POPS. SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABOVE THE MORNING LOWS
WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN...SNOW AND CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBJECT TO A SNOW FIELD AND CLEARING SKIES RESULTING IN MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STILL BE
NEAR 30 WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING SUNDAY.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
440 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2009
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...-SN HAS BEGUN TO FALL OVER KGLD AND EXPECT CIGS
AND VIS TO LOWER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. CIGS MAY DROP AOB 500 FT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW. HAVE TEMPO FOR KMCK AS -SN SHOULD BEGIN
NEAR THE TAF SITE SHORTLY. CIGS AND VIS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR
LATER TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF NORTH WITH WITH GUSTS
NEAR 25 KTS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN DECREASE AND SWITCH OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE EVENING HOURS. LOWER CIGS WILL RISE HOWEVER
REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BURTIS
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001>004.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ079>081.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090.
&&
$$
99/99
000
FXUS63 KGLD 130946
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
246 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...
246 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2009
THE 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
TEX/OK PANHANDLE. KGLD RADAR GETTING RETURNS FROM THE NORTHWEST
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW REPORTED NEARBY. LOW CAN BE SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE BACK IN ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES INCLUDE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS AND POPS
SATURDAY.
THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLY LOWER QPF THE STORM MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TODAY.
SNOW SLOW GETTING STARTED EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR SNOW FALL IS
LIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. BOTH THE
GFS/NAM INDICATE THIS STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY WITH
SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER BY 18Z. CONSEQUENTLY THE WINDOW FOR SNOW IS
ABOUT 6 HOURS LONG. DO NOT THINK THIS WILL BE LONG ENOUGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR WARNING CRITERIA WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
CURRENT MODEL QPF WHICH YIELDS A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT AREA. CONSEQUENTLY THE WARNING WILL NEED
TO BE DOWNGRADED BY NECESSITY DUE TO THE LACK OF SNOWFALL. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A LOW END ADVISORY WITH WINDS NOT THAT MUCH OF A
CONCERN. SEE DETAILS BELOW CONCERNING THE HIGHLIGHT CHANGE. PLAN TO
KEEP HIGH POPS THROUGH THE EVENT SINCE SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW COMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LOOK GOOD ENOUGH FOR CHANCE POPS. SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABOVE THE MORNING LOWS
WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN...SNOW AND CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBJECT TO A SNOW FIELD AND CLEARING SKIES RESULTING IN MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STILL BE
NEAR 30 WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING SUNDAY.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
945 PM MST THU FEB 12 2009
FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...SYSTEM SET TO MOVE INTO AREA. BKN TO OVC
AROUND 10KFT CURRENTLY AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL
OVERNIGHT SUCH THAT BOTH TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO LIFR BY AROUND 12Z-15Z. STRONG NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 20G30KTS WILL ALSO IMPACT BOTH SITES. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BY 00Z. WILL RAISE
CIGS FROM LIFR TO IFR AT 00Z FOR NOW AND LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
MONITOR/REEVALUATE.
GJG
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001>004.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ079>081.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090.
&&
$$
WFO GOODLAND
000
FXUS63 KGLD 130452
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
952 PM MST THU FEB 12 2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM MST THU FEB 12 2009/
.UPDATE...
849 PM MST THU FEB 12 2009
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A WARMER AND DRYER INTRUSION ABOVE THE
SURFACE DEPICTED IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...INDIVIDUAL MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DO NOT
DEPICT ANY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE THE PRECIPITATION HAS
INITIATED MAINLY AFTER 07Z-09Z EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE REMOVED
ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT AND HAVE CHANGED MODERATE
SNOW WORDING TO LIGHT SNOW WHERE QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT
WARRANT IT.
LOCKHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
153 PM MST THU FEB 12 2009
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC
RUNS @ 12Z WHICH LINED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS HEADLINES
FOR TOMORROW. A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS HOISTED FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND YUMA COUNTY COLORADO WHILE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR ONE ROW OF KANSAS COUNTIES.
AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE
ON FRIDAY WITH 5-7 INCHES EXPECTED. H5-H3 DIV Q/H7 2-D FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE JUXTAPOSED ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA WHILE 290-295K
STRMLNS INDICATE 4-5 G/KG ADVECTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH, SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED
SLIGHTLY. A SECONDARY CONCERN IS A BROAD SWATH OF -FZDZ DEVELOPING
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE H85-H5 DRY SLOT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. GIVEN THE PHASE UNCERTAINTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE, SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LOWERED, HOWEVER INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD FZDZ EVENT MAY LEAD TO A SOUTHWARD
EXPANSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
20-30 MPH RANGE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENT.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL INCREASE POPS SAT NIGHT HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH WITH QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND DIFFERENCES
IN PHASE/AMPLITUDE BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. BY SUNDAY, THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
RETURNS TO THE THE SOUTHEAST LEADING TO SUBTLE WARMING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS
PROGGED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS-MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. THE
ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SUPPORTED
BY LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE LEADING TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS INTACT FOR NOW WITH
DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE LEADING TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY.
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WED-THU
AS MID/UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND MID/UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST LEADING TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
945 PM MST THU FEB 12 2009
FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...SYSTEM SET TO MOVE INTO AREA. BKN TO OVC
AROUND 10KFT CURRENTLY AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL
OVERNIGHT SUCH THAT BOTH TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO LIFR BY AROUND 12Z-15Z. STRONG NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 20G30KTS WILL ALSO IMPACT BOTH SITES. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BY 00Z. WILL RAISE
CIGS FROM LIFR TO IFR AT 00Z FOR NOW AND LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
MONITOR/REEVALUATE.
GJG
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
KSZ002>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR KSZ001.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR NEZ079.
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ090.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 130355
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
855 PM MST THU FEB 12 2009
.UPDATE...
849 PM MST THU FEB 12 2009
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A WARMER AND DRYER INTRUSION ABOVE THE
SURFACE DEPICTED IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...INDIVIDUAL MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DO NOT
DEPICT ANY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE THE PRECIPITATION HAS
INITIATED MAINLY AFTER 07Z-09Z EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE REMOVED
ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT AND HAVE CHANGED MODERATE
SNOW WORDING TO LIGHT SNOW WHERE QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT
WARRANT IT.
LOCKHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
153 PM MST THU FEB 12 2009
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC
RUNS @ 12Z WHICH LINED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS HEADLINES
FOR TOMORROW. A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS HOISTED FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND YUMA COUNTY COLORADO WHILE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR ONE ROW OF KANSAS COUNTIES.
AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE
ON FRIDAY WITH 5-7 INCHES EXPECTED. H5-H3 DIV Q/H7 2-D FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE JUXTAPOSED ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA WHILE 290-295K
STRMLNS INDICATE 4-5 G/KG ADVECTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH, SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED
SLIGHTLY. A SECONDARY CONCERN IS A BROAD SWATH OF -FZDZ DEVELOPING
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE H85-H5 DRY SLOT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. GIVEN THE PHASE UNCERTAINTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE, SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LOWERED, HOWEVER INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD FZDZ EVENT MAY LEAD TO A SOUTHWARD
EXPANSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
20-30 MPH RANGE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENT.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL INCREASE POPS SAT NIGHT HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH WITH QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND DIFFERENCES
IN PHASE/AMPLITUDE BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. BY SUNDAY, THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
RETURNS TO THE THE SOUTHEAST LEADING TO SUBTLE WARMING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS
PROGGED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS-MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. THE
ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SUPPORTED
BY LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE LEADING TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS INTACT FOR NOW WITH
DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE LEADING TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY.
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WED-THU
AS MID/UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND MID/UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST LEADING TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
440 PM MST THU FEB 12 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...BIG CHANGES FOR THE TWO TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT AND
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. STORM
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING
AROUND 08Z AT KGLD AND 10Z AT KMCK WITH HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES
OCCURRING FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER
EAST. LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BRING BOTH TERMINALS
DOWN TO LIFR LEVELS. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20G30KTS
WILL ALSO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS.
GJG
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
KSZ002>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR KSZ001.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR NEZ079.
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ090.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 122343
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
443 PM MST THU FEB 12 2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM MST THU FEB 12 2009/
.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA WILL TRANSLATE
QUICKLY EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC RUNS @ 12Z WHICH
LINED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS HEADLINES FOR TOMORROW. A
WINTER STORM WARNING WAS HOISTED FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND YUMA COUNTY COLORADO WHILE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR ONE ROW OF KANSAS COUNTIES.
AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE
ON FRIDAY WITH 5-7 INCHES EXPECTED. H5-H3 DIV Q/H7 2-D FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE JUXTAPOSED ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA WHILE 290-295K
STRMLNS INDICATE 4-5 G/KG ADVECTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH, SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED
SLIGHTLY. A SECONDARY CONCERN IS A BROAD SWATH OF -FZDZ DEVELOPING
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE H85-H5 DRY SLOT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. GIVEN THE PHASE UNCERTAINTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE, SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LOWERED, HOWEVER INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD FZDZ EVENT MAY LEAD TO A SOUTHWARD
EXPANSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
20-30 MPH RANGE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENT.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL INCREASE POPS SAT NIGHT HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH WITH QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND DIFFERENCES
IN PHASE/AMPLITUDE BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. BY SUNDAY, THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
RETURNS TO THE THE SOUTHEAST LEADING TO SUBTLE WARMING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS
PROGGED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS-MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. THE
ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SUPPORTED
BY LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE LEADING TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS INTACT FOR NOW WITH
DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE LEADING TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY.
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WED-THU
AS MID/UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND MID/UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST LEADING TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
440 PM MST THU FEB 12 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...BIG CHANGES FOR THE TWO TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT AND
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. STORM
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING
AROUND 08Z AT KGLD AND 10Z AT KMCK WITH HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES
OCCURRING FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER
EAST. LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BRING BOTH TERMINALS
DOWN TO LIFR LEVELS. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20G30KTS
WILL ALSO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS.
GJG
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
KSZ002>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY
FOR KSZ001.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR NEZ079.
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR COZ090.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 122053
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
153 PM MST THU FEB 12 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA WILL TRANSLATE
QUICKLY EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC RUNS @ 12Z WHICH
LINED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS HEADLINES FOR TOMORROW. A
WINTER STORM WARNING WAS HOISTED FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND YUMA COUNTY COLORADO WHILE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR ONE ROW OF KANSAS COUNTIES.
AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE
ON FRIDAY WITH 5-7 INCHES EXPECTED. H5-H3 DIV Q/H7 2-D FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE JUXTAPOSED ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA WHILE 290-295K
STRMLNS INDICATE 4-5 G/KG ADVECTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH, SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED
SLIGHTLY. A SECONDARY CONCERN IS A BROAD SWATH OF -FZDZ DEVELOPING
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE H85-H5 DRY SLOT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. GIVEN THE PHASE UNCERTAINTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE, SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LOWERED, HOWEVER INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD FZDZ EVENT MAY LEAD TO A SOUTHWARD
EXPANSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
20-30 MPH RANGE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENT.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL INCREASE POPS SAT NIGHT HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH WITH QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND DIFFERENCES
IN PHASE/AMPLITUDE BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. BY SUNDAY, THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
RETURNS TO THE THE SOUTHEAST LEADING TO SUBTLE WARMING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS
PROGGED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS-MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. THE
ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SUPPORTED
BY LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE LEADING TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS INTACT FOR NOW WITH
DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE LEADING TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY.
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WED-THU
AS MID/UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND MID/UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST LEADING TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
1020 AM MST THU FEB 12 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BRING A BIG CHANGE TO THE
TWO TERMINALS. SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 100KFT AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING AROUND 08Z AT KGLD. LOW
CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO SNOW WILL BRING THE TERMINAL
DOWN TO LIFR CONDITIONS. THE SAME SYSTEM WILL IMPACT KMCK LATER AS
IT MAKES ITS WAY EAST AND THUS I DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION
INTO THE KMCK TAF...HOWEVER SOME SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE SLIGHTLY
BEFORE 18Z. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20-35 KNOTS WILL
IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS.
KJ
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY
FOR KSZ001>004.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR COZ090.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 121721
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1021 AM MST THU FEB 12 2009
.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY BUT WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH
WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT MOVES QUICKLY
EAST SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
TODAY. BY TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
BY FRIDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN OVER THE PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE POPS AND WEATHER.
FIRST OF ALL...BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST
AREA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES. MOISTURE IS BEST OVER THE NORTH FOR THIS EVENT. CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK (INCLUDING THE WINTER STORM WATCH)
FOR THIS EVENT AND WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
THAT OMEGA WILL BE EXITING BY 00Z SATURDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW FOR THE EVENT. THE
NAM SHOWS FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ZONES WHEREAS
THE GFS INDICATES WEAK FRONTOGENESIS THERE. LATEST MODEL DATA
INDICATES FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION OVER THE WATCH
AREA WITH 3 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR AND MINOR
AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THIS EVENT OVER NORTHERN ZONES.
ADDED MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS ALSO WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
OMEGA INDICATED FOR SATURDAY BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE COLUMN IS
NOT SATURATED UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE
ADEQUATE FOR SATURDAY BUT INCREASED TO LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN
COMPARISON TO LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT. MINS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S
TONIGHT AND THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
1020 AM MST THU FEB 12 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BRING A BIG CHANGE TO THE
TWO TERMINALS. SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 100KFT AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING AROUND 08Z AT KGLD. LOW
CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO SNOW WILL BRING THE TERMINAL
DOWN TO LIFR CONDITIONS. THE SAME SYSTEM WILL IMPACT KMCK LATER AS
IT MAKES ITS WAY EAST AND THUS I DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION
INTO THE KMCK TAF...HOWEVER SOME SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE SLIGHTLY
BEFORE 18Z. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20-35 KNOTS WILL
IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS.
KJ
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY
FOR KSZ001>004.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR COZ090.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 121128
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
428 AM MST THU FEB 12 2009
.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY BUT WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH
WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT MOVES QUICKLY
EAST SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
TODAY. BY TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
BY FRIDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN OVER THE PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE POPS AND WEATHER.
FIRST OF ALL...BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST
AREA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES. MOISTURE IS BEST OVER THE NORTH FOR THIS EVENT. CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK (INCLUDING THE WINTER STORM WATCH)
FOR THIS EVENT AND WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
THAT OMEGA WILL BE EXITING BY 00Z SATURDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW FOR THE EVENT. THE
NAM SHOWS FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ZONES WHEREAS
THE GFS INDICATES WEAK FRONTOGENESIS THERE. LATEST MODEL DATA
INDICATES FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION OVER THE WATCH
AREA WITH 3 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR AND MINOR
AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THIS EVENT OVER NORTHERN ZONES.
ADDED MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS ALSO WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
OMEGA INDICATED FOR SATURDAY BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE COLUMN IS
NOT SATURATED UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE
ADEQUATE FOR SATURDAY BUT INCREASED TO LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN
COMPARISON TO LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT. MINS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S
TONIGHT AND THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
430 AM MST THU FEB 12 2009
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTH
BELOW 12 KTS. TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE CIGS WILL DROP NEAR
4KFT. SNOW LIKELY WILL BEGIN AFTER THE TAF CYCLE SO HAVE LEFT OUT
VCNTY SHRS FOR NOW.
BURTIS
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001>004.
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ079>081.
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ090.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 120958
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
258 AM MST THU FEB 12 2009
.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY BUT WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH
WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT MOVES QUICKLY
EAST SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
TODAY. BY TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
BY FRIDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN OVER THE PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE POPS AND WEATHER.
FIRST OF ALL...BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST
AREA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES. MOISTURE IS BEST OVER THE NORTH FOR THIS EVENT. CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK (INCLUDING THE WINTER STORM WATCH)
FOR THIS EVENT AND WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
THAT OMEGA WILL BE EXITING BY 00Z SATURDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW FOR THE EVENT. THE
NAM SHOWS FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ZONES WHEREAS
THE GFS INDICATES WEAK FRONTOGENESIS THERE. LATEST MODEL DATA
INDICATES FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION OVER THE WATCH
AREA WITH 3 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR AND MINOR
AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THIS EVENT OVER NORTHERN ZONES.
ADDED MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS ALSO WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
OMEGA INDICATED FOR SATURDAY BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE COLUMN IS
NOT SATURATED UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE
ADEQUATE FOR SATURDAY BUT INCREASED TO LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN
COMPARISON TO LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT. MINS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S
TONIGHT AND THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
925 PM MST WED FEB 11 2009
FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WINDS AT BOTH SITES WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS BY AROUND 18Z THEN
SHIFTING TO THE EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. CLOUDS ALSO
ON THE INCREASE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. CIGS LOWERING TO
AROUND 8-10K BY END OF TAF PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM WHICH WILL
LIKELY CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...JUST
OUTSIDE OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
GJG
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001>004.
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ079>081.
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ090.
&&
$$
WFO GOODLAND
000
FXUS63 KGLD 120426
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
926 PM MST WED FEB 11 2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 PM MST WED FEB 11 2009/
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM MST WED FEB 11 2009/
.SYNOPSIS...
231 PM MST WED FEB 11 2009
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DOWNSTREAM...WHICH SPAWNED THE DEADLY
TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...IS NOW MOVING ACROSS
THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING/NEAR ZONAL FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF IT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH UPSTREAM NOW MOVING ON SHORE ONTO THE CENTRAL WESTERN US
COAST WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AHEAD OF IT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
BLM
&&
.DISCUSSION...
231 PM MST WED FEB 11 2009
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE NEXT WINTER
STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE TRI STATE REGION LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND THE NEED FOR FURTHER AND/OR UPDATED
HIGHLIGHTS. GENERALLY A WEST TO EAST BAND OF SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...INCLUDING ESPECIALLY ITS SOUTHERN GRADIENT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AND FINE TUNED AS NEWER DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.
FOR THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING
ON SHORE ALONG THE US WEST COAST...SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA
RANGE...TURNING EAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...THEN NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN TROUGHS. NIL TO
SILENT POPS INCREASING FROM THE WEST BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN THE SREF POPS SHOW 10
PERCENT POPS NOT REACHING THE COLORADO KANSAS BORDER UNTIL ABOUT 06Z
FRIDAY. I TRIED TO REFLECT THAT DELAY IN THE GRIDS 00Z TO 06Z.
GREATEST CHANCE FOR THE GREATER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LOOK TO BE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 21Z FRIDAY. CURRENT THINKING ON SNOW
AMOUNTS IS 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...3 TO 5 INCHES
GENERALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...AND 6 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS HIGHER
AMOUNTS. USED A SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO OF 17 TO 1. FURTHER
EAST...THIS MAY BE MORE LIKE A 12 TO 1 RATIO...BUT WHEN RUNNING
THE SNOW AMOUNTS HAD TO STICK WITH ONE CHOICE. THE SOUTHERN
GRADIENT OF THIS STORM TOTAL SNOW FALL COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AND
WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED AND FINE TUNED. CURRENTLY...A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR NORTHERN 2 TIER COUNTIES.
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
INCLUDED LATER FOR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
290K AND 295K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS CENTERED AROUND 12Z ON FRIDAY
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT COINCIDENT WITH THETA E
RIDGING AND A TIGHTENING OF THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT
GRADIENT. POSSIBLE FAINT INDICATIONS OF A TROWAL AS WELL BUT
SLIGHTLY LESS SO COMPARED WITH YESTERDAYS ISENTROPIC MODEL DATA.
STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LESS POTENT BUT YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SATURDAY 12Z THROUGH SUNDAY 12Z. NOT YET CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BEGIN
INCLUDING SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS SATURDAY/SUNDAY SYSTEM.
AHEAD OF FRIDAYS WINTER STORM...DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TEENS.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATING A FAIRLY GOOD-SIZED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WEAKENING
AND BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE INTER MOUNTAIN
WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE DEEPENING AGAIN OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN US JUST BEYOND DAY 7. A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. I FOLLOWED
HPC TRENDING LOWER WITH THE PREVIOUSLY ADDED POPS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AT LEAST FOR NOW TO SILENT POPS UNTIL THIS TIME FRAME COMES A
LITTLE MORE INTO FOCUS. COLDER TEMPERATURES REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN THE AFTERMATH OF
STORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO LOWS IN THE 20 AND HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
BLM
&&
.AVIATION...
925 PM MST WED FEB 11 2009
FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WINDS AT BOTH SITES WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS BY AROUND 18Z THEN
SHIFTING TO THE EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. CLOUDS ALSO
ON THE INCREASE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. CIGS LOWERING TO
AROUND 8-10K BY END OF TAF PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM WHICH WILL
LIKELY CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...JUST
OUTSIDE OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
GJG
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001>004.
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ090.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 112336
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
436 PM MST WED FEB 11 2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM MST WED FEB 11 2009/
.SYNOPSIS...
231 PM MST WED FEB 11 2009
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DOWNSTREAM...WHICH SPAWNED THE DEADLY
TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...IS NOW MOVING ACROSS
THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING/NEAR ZONAL FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF IT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH UPSTREAM NOW MOVING ON SHORE ONTO THE CENTRAL WESTERN US
COAST WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AHEAD OF IT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
BLM
&&
.DISCUSSION...
231 PM MST WED FEB 11 2009
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE NEXT WINTER
STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE TRI STATE REGION LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND THE NEED FOR FURTHER AND/OR UPDATED
HIGHLIGHTS. GENERALLY A WEST TO EAST BAND OF SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...INCLUDING ESPECIALLY ITS SOUTHERN GRADIENT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AND FINE TUNED AS NEWER DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.
FOR THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING
ON SHORE ALONG THE US WEST COAST...SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA
RANGE...TURNING EAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...THEN NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN TROUGHS. NIL TO
SILENT POPS INCREASING FROM THE WEST BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN THE SREF POPS SHOW 10
PERCENT POPS NOT REACHING THE COLORADO KANSAS BORDER UNTIL ABOUT 06Z
FRIDAY. I TRIED TO REFLECT THAT DELAY IN THE GRIDS 00Z TO 06Z.
GREATEST CHANCE FOR THE GREATER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LOOK TO BE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 21Z FRIDAY. CURRENT THINKING ON SNOW
AMOUNTS IS 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...3 TO 5 INCHES
GENERALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...AND 6 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS HIGHER
AMOUNTS. USED A SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO OF 17 TO 1. FURTHER
EAST...THIS MAY BE MORE LIKE A 12 TO 1 RATIO...BUT WHEN RUNNING
THE SNOW AMOUNTS HAD TO STICK WITH ONE CHOICE. THE SOUTHERN
GRADIENT OF THIS STORM TOTAL SNOW FALL COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AND
WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED AND FINE TUNED. CURRENTLY...A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR NORTHERN 2 TIER COUNTIES.
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
INCLUDED LATER FOR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
290K AND 295K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS CENTERED AROUND 12Z ON FRIDAY
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT COINCIDENT WITH THETA E
RIDGING AND A TIGHTENING OF THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT
GRADIENT. POSSIBLE FAINT INDICATIONS OF A TROWAL AS WELL BUT
SLIGHTLY LESS SO COMPARED WITH YESTERDAYS ISENTROPIC MODEL DATA.
STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LESS POTENT BUT YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SATURDAY 12Z THROUGH SUNDAY 12Z. NOT YET CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BEGIN
INCLUDING SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS SATURDAY/SUNDAY SYSTEM.
AHEAD OF FRIDAYS WINTER STORM...DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TEENS.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATING A FAIRLY GOOD-SIZED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WEAKENING
AND BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE INTER MOUNTAIN
WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE DEEPENING AGAIN OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN US JUST BEYOND DAY 7. A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. I FOLLOWED
HPC TRENDING LOWER WITH THE PREVIOUSLY ADDED POPS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AT LEAST FOR NOW TO SILENT POPS UNTIL THIS TIME FRAME COMES A
LITTLE MORE INTO FOCUS. COLDER TEMPERATURES REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN THE AFTERMATH OF
STORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO LOWS IN THE 20 AND HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
BLM
&&
.AVIATION...
440 PM MST WED FEB 11 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD
WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS. WINDS AT BOTH SITES WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOME GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10KTS BY AROUND 18Z.
GJG
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001>004.
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ090.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 112131
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
231 PM MST WED FEB 11 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
231 PM MST WED FEB 11 2009
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DOWNSTREAM...WHICH SPAWNED THE DEADLY
TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...IS NOW MOVING ACROSS
THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING/NEAR ZONAL FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF IT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH UPSTREAM NOW MOVING ON SHORE ONTO THE CENTRAL WESTERN US
COAST WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AHEAD OF IT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
BLM
&&
.DISCUSSION...
231 PM MST WED FEB 11 2009
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE NEXT WINTER
STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE TRI STATE REGION LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND THE NEED FOR FURTHER AND/OR UPDATED
HIGHLIGHTS. GENERALLY A WEST TO EAST BAND OF SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...INCLUDING ESPECIALLY ITS SOUTHERN GRADIENT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AND FINE TUNED AS NEWER DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.
FOR THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING
ON SHORE ALONG THE US WEST COAST...SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA
RANGE...TURNING EAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...THEN NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN TROUGHS. NIL TO
SILENT POPS INCREASING FROM THE WEST BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN THE SREF POPS SHOW 10
PERCENT POPS NOT REACHING THE COLORADO KANSAS BORDER UNTIL ABOUT 06Z
FRIDAY. I TRIED TO REFLECT THAT DELAY IN THE GRIDS 00Z TO 06Z.
GREATEST CHANCE FOR THE GREATER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LOOK TO BE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 21Z FRIDAY. CURRENT THINKING ON SNOW
AMOUNTS IS 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...3 TO 5 INCHES
GENERALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...AND 6 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS HIGHER
AMOUNTS. USED A SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO OF 17 TO 1. FURTHER
EAST...THIS MAY BE MORE LIKE A 12 TO 1 RATIO...BUT WHEN RUNNING
THE SNOW AMOUNTS HAD TO STICK WITH ONE CHOICE. THE SOUTHERN
GRADIENT OF THIS STORM TOTAL SNOW FALL COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AND
WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED AND FINE TUNED. CURRENTLY...A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR NORTHERN 2 TIER COUNTIES.
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
INCLUDED LATER FOR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
290K AND 295K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS CENTERED AROUND 12Z ON FRIDAY
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT COINCIDENT WITH THETA E
RIDGING AND A TIGHTENING OF THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT
GRADIENT. POSSIBLE FAINT INDICATIONS OF A TROWAL AS WELL BUT
SLIGHTLY LESS SO COMPARED WITH YESTERDAYS ISENTROPIC MODEL DATA.
STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LESS POTENT BUT YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SATURDAY 12Z THROUGH SUNDAY 12Z. NOT YET CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BEGIN
INCLUDING SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS SATURDAY/SUNDAY SYSTEM.
AHEAD OF FRIDAYS WINTER STORM...DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TEENS.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATING A FAIRLY GOOD-SIZED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WEAKENING
AND BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE INTER MOUNTAIN
WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE DEEPENING AGAIN OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN US JUST BEYOND DAY 7. A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. I FOLLOWED
HPC TRENDING LOWER WITH THE PREVIOUSLY ADDED POPS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AT LEAST FOR NOW TO SILENT POPS UNTIL THIS TIME FRAME COMES A
LITTLE MORE INTO FOCUS. COLDER TEMPERATURES REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN THE AFTERMATH OF
STORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO LOWS IN THE 20 AND HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
BLM
&&
.AVIATION...
439 AM MST WED FEB 11 2009
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 12KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER 00Z.
MCGUIRE
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001>004.
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ090.
&&
$$
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