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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 71
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORT
ARTHUR TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 70...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER PARTS OF SERN TX...AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EWD/NEWD THIS EVENING IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.
AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES
75-80F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF
2000-2500 J/KG. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45-55 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY
ARE EVIDENT IN LCH 18Z RAOB AND LATEST LCH VWP SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 71 TORNADO LA TX CW 262055Z - 270400Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
45NW BPT/PORT ARTHUR TX/ - 40SSE ESF/ALEXANDRIA LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM EITHER SIDE /46S LFK - 33SE AEX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 31699483 32159231 29579176 29129429
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 71 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 71
VALID 270325Z - 270440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE LCH
TO 20 W LFT TO 25 SSE ESF.
..BROYLES..03/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 71
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC009-045-055-097-099-101-113-270440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
AVOYELLES IBERIA LAFAYETTE
ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY
VERMILION
$$
GMZ435-452-455-270440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 71
VALID 270135Z - 270240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E GLS TO
20 SSE LCH TO 40 ESE POE TO 30 SSW MLU.
..BROYLES..03/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 71
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-009-021-039-045-053-055-059-079-097-099-101-113-270240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA AVOYELLES CALDWELL
EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS
LAFAYETTE LA SALLE RAPIDES
ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY
VERMILION
$$
GMZ435-452-455-270240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 71
VALID 270100Z - 270240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE GLS
TO 25 ESE BPT TO 15 NNW LCH TO 10 SE POE TO 25 WSW ESF TO 20 E
IER TO 25 NNE IER.
..BROYLES..03/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 71
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-019-021-023-039-043-045-053-055-059-079-097-099-
101-113-127-270240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
CALCASIEU CALDWELL CAMERON
EVANGELINE GRANT IBERIA
JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LA SALLE
RAPIDES ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN
ST. MARY VERMILION WINN
$$
GMZ430-432-435-452-455-270240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 71
VALID 262345Z - 270040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..03/26/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 71
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-019-021-023-039-043-045-053-055-059-069-079-
085-097-099-101-113-115-127-270040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL
CAMERON EVANGELINE GRANT
IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE
LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES
SABINE ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN
ST. MARY VERMILION VERNON
WINN
$$
TXC005-073-199-241-245-347-351-361-403-405-419-457-270040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA CHEROKEE HARDIN
JASPER JEFFERSON NACOGDOCHES
NEWTON ORANGE SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TYLER
$$
GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-270040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 71
VALID 262245Z - 262340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..03/26/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 71
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-019-021-023-039-043-045-053-055-059-069-079-
085-097-099-101-113-115-127-262340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL
CAMERON EVANGELINE GRANT
IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE
LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES
SABINE ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN
ST. MARY VERMILION VERNON
WINN
$$
TXC005-073-199-241-245-347-351-361-403-405-419-457-262340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA CHEROKEE HARDIN
JASPER JEFFERSON NACOGDOCHES
NEWTON ORANGE SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TYLER
$$
GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-262340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 71
VALID 262130Z - 262240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..03/26/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 71
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-019-021-023-039-043-045-053-055-059-069-079-
085-097-099-101-113-115-127-262240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL
CAMERON EVANGELINE GRANT
IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE
LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES
SABINE ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN
ST. MARY VERMILION VERNON
WINN
$$
TXC005-073-199-241-245-347-351-361-403-405-419-457-262240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA CHEROKEE HARDIN
JASPER JEFFERSON NACOGDOCHES
NEWTON ORANGE SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TYLER
$$
GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-262240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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