000 FGUS74 KLZK 162027 ESFLZK ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-031-039-041-043-045-047- 049-051-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-083-085-089-095-097- 099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-135-137-141-145- 147-149-171200- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 225 PM CST THU MAR 16 2006 ...HEAVY RAIN BRINGS SHORT TERM RELIEF TO AREAS OF ARKANSAS... .SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE PAST WEEK...BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THAT PART OF THE STATE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE NEAR FOUR INCHES IN SOME AREAS. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN FELL FROM JUST SOUTH OF FORT SMITH TO EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME. RIVER LEVELS SHOWED DRASTIC IMPROVEMENTS IN AND AROUND THIS AREA... THOUGH IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW LONG THESE IMPROVEMENTS WILL LAST IF RAIN DOES NOT CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. DESPITE THE RAIN...SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS SEVERELY DEPLETED TO A DEPTH OF SEVERAL FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. WITH LA NINA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY SUMMER...AND POSSIBLY LONGER...RAINFALL THROUGH SPRING MAY BE BELOW NORMAL. .DROUGHT MONITOR...THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS THE RAINFALL OF THE PAST WEEK HAS HELPED EASE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS. A SMALL ARE OF D4 /EXCEPTIONAL/ DROUGHT REMAINS NEAR POLK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WHILE A SLIVER OF D3 /EXTREME/ DROUGHT CONTINUES ALONG THE ARKANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. D1 /MODERATE/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR TEXARKANA TO NEAR JONESBORO. RECENTLY...A LACK IN RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HAS BROUGHT ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS /D0/ BACK. THE DROUGHT MONITOR CAN BE VIEWED ONLINE AT WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM. IT IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS. THESE INCLUDE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND SEVERAL OTHER PARTICIPANTS. THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS ISSUED EACH THURSDAY AT 9 AM. THE DATA CUTOFF FOR THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS 7 AM TUESDAY. THIS MEANS ANY RAIN WHICH FALLS AFTER 7 AM TUESDAY WILL NOT BE REFLECTED IN THAT WEEKS MONITOR...BUT RATHER THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THERE ARE FOUR LEVELS OF DROUGHT DEPICTED ON THE DROUGHT MONITOR. THEY INCLUDE D1 - MODERATE DROUGHT...D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT...D3 - EXTREME DROUGHT...AND D4 - EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. .CLIMATE DATA AND ANALYSIS...HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE PAST WEEK...BRINGING AS MUCH AS FOUR INCHES OF RAIN TO THAT AREA OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS REMAIN SIGNIFICANT...AND ARE GREATER THAN 12 INCHES ACROSS MANY AREAS OF ARKANSAS. LOOKING AT RAINFALL DATA FOR THE PAST 30 DAYS...IT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY WET ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF ARKANSAS...WHILE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE HAVE RECEIVED BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. .IMPACTS...THE RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WEEK HAS HELPED RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE REBOUND FROM EXCEPTIONALLY LOW LEVELS. ACCORDING TO DATA FROM THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...MOST OF THE RIVERS NORTH OF A MENA TO MEMPHIS LINE ARE NOW IN IN THE /NORMAL/ TO /WET/ CATEGORIES. THE LAST 30 DAYS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND RIVER GAUGES ARE REFLECTING THAT. MANY OF THOSE GAUGES ARE IN THE LOWEST 10TH PERCENTILE OR LOWER. EVEN THOUGH MUCH OF ARKANSAS HAS EXPERIENCED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS...SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN SEVERELY DEPLETED ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR NEARLY A YEAR NOW ACROSS ARKANSAS...AND THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS HAS CAUSED THE SOILS ACROSS THE STATE TO DRY TO SIGNIFICANT DEPTHS...NOT JUST INCHES BUT SEVERAL FEET BELOW THE GROUND. A SIGNIFICANT WET PERIOD OF SEVERAL MONTHS WILL BE REQUIRED TO FULLY REPLENISH THE MOISTURE IN THE GROUND. DESPITE THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...THE WILDFIRE DANGER REMAINS. ACCORDING TO THE ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION...ALL BUT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS IS CURRENTLY IN A MODERATE TO HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER. TEN COUNTIES HAD BURN BANS IN PLACE... MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CORNERS OF THE STATE. .FORECAST...A RATHER WET WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SECTION OF THE UNITED STATES. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A WIDE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL LIKELY STRETCH FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH...ALL THE WAY TO LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER FOUR INCHES OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE REDUCTION IN THE SHORT-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS...THOUGH THE LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN. THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPDATED THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR THE APRIL-MAY-JUNE TIME PERIOD. IT SHOWS THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS...WITH EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR ARKANSAS CALLS FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE FOR THE APRIL THROUGH JUNE PERIOD. LA NINA CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN...AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT THREE TO SIX MONTH. WHILE THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN RELATIVELY WET ACROSS ARKANSAS LATELY...AND APPEARS IT WILL BE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK...A MORE TYPICAL LA NINA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. HISTORICALLY...WHEN LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT DURING APRIL THROUGH JUNE...MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES EXPERIENCES BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPDATED THE DROUGHT OUTLOOK ...VALID FOR THE PERIOD APRIL THROUGH JUNE. IT SHOWS THAT WHILE SOME INITIAL IMPROVEMENTS ARE LIKELY...DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE MONTHS. RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BRING SOME ALLEVIATION TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO BE THOROUGHLY REMOVED...A WEATHER PATTERN OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR SEVERAL MONTHS WILL BE REQUIRED. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL NOT OCCUR...MEANING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS SUMMER APPROACHES. && THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON MAR 30 2006. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE WEB...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK/HTML/DROUGHT05.HTM QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS MAY BE DIRECTED TO... PAUL INIGUEZ METEOROLOGIST/ASST. CLIMATE FOCAL POINT NWS LITTLE ROCK AR 501-834-0308 PAUL.INIGUEZ@NOAA.GOV $$ INIGUEZ