000 FGUS74 KLZK 301853 ESFLZK ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-031-039-041-043-045-047- 049-051-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-083-085-089-095-097- 099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-135-137-141-145- 147-149-311200- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 100 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT... .SYNOPSIS...HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MARCH 18TH - 20TH. A LARGE AREA RECEIVED FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE THREE DAY EVENT...WITH ISOLATED AREAS MEASURING OVER SIX INCHES OF RAIN. THIS HEAVY RAIN BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT RELIEF... ESSENTIALLY ALLEVIATING THE SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS. LONG TERM DEFICITS REMAIN THOUGH...AND ARE STILL IN EXCESS OF TWELVE INCHES DURING THE PAST 12 MONTHS ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS. .DROUGHT MONITOR...THE DROUGHT MONITOR CAN BE VIEWED ONLINE AT WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM. IT IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS. THESE INCLUDE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND SEVERAL OTHER PARTICIPANTS. THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS ISSUED EACH THURSDAY AT 9 AM. THE DATA CUTOFF FOR THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS 7 AM TUESDAY. THIS MEANS ANY RAIN WHICH FALLS AFTER 7 AM TUESDAY WILL NOT BE REFLECTED IN THAT WEEKS MONITOR...BUT RATHER THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THERE ARE FOUR LEVELS OF DROUGHT DEPICTED ON THE DROUGHT MONITOR. THEY INCLUDE D1 - MODERATE DROUGHT...D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT...D3 - EXTREME DROUGHT...AND D4 - EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. THIS WEEKS U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENTS IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS AS COMPARED TO TWO WEEKS AGO. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE IS STILL EXPERIENCING MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS...WITH SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ CONDITIONS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE ALLEVIATED THE SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN. .CLIMATE DATA AND ANALYSIS...RAIN DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT ACROSS AREAS OF ARKANSAS...IN PARTICULAR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE LESSER ACROSS THE NORTH...GENERALLY BELOW AN INCH...WHILE AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY OVER THREE INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS LARGE AREAS OF THE STATE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL...INCLUDING THE AREAS HARDEST HIT BY THE DROUGHT...LARGE LONG TERM DEFICITS REMAINS. IN THE PAST TWELVE MONTHS...RAINFALL DEFICITS REMAIN OVER 20 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...REPRESENTING 50 TO 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL. .IMPACTS...THE RECENT RAINFALL HAS PROVIDED SHORT TERM ALLEVIATION OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE RIVERS OF MAINLY SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. FLOW LEVELS FOR THE MAJORITY OF RIVERS ACROSS THE STATE WERE IN THE AVERAGE RANGE...THOUGH BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS WERE STILL BEING MEASURED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF ARKANSAS. ALSO...THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE STATE HAS DECREASED. ACCORDING TO THE ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION...ALL PORTIONS OF THE STATE ARE EITHER IN LOW OR MODERATE WILDFIRE DANGER. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SHORT TERM RELIEF OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS... LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS REMAIN. ACCORDING TO CALCULATED SOIL MOISTURE DATA FROM THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE...WITH THE LARGEST DEFICITS NOTED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS. .FORECAST...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY. IF THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LARGER. BUT AT THIS TIME...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. LOOKING FURTHER OUT...THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF ARKANSAS THROUGH THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS IS A FORECAST FOR RAINFALL PROBABILITY AND NOT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...BUT THE QUICK SPEED OF THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOW. IN THE LONGER TERM...FORECASTS FOR MUCH OF THE SPRING INDICATE THAT BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS FOR THE STATE. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK FROM THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...WHICH SHOWS IMPROVEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD /RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS/ BUT DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE SPRING. && THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON APR 13 2006. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE WEB...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK/HTML/DROUGHT05.HTM QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS MAY BE DIRECTED TO... CHRIS BUONANNO SCIENCE AND OPERATIONS OFFICER NWS LITTLE ROCK AR 501-834-0308 CHRISTOPHER.BUONANNO@NOAA.GOV $$ INIGUEZ