We must follow-up the initial epoch of giant planet discoveries
with an extensive dynamical, photometric, transit, and
imaging exploration of main-sequence stars to determine
the orbital characteristics and gross physical properties of
their planets. A multi-pronged strategy of dynamical, photometric-
transit, and imaging techniques should be pursued
in series and in parallel. These should be implemented in
three chronological phases.
In the first (reconnaissance) phase, astronomers must
make a complete inventory of giant and Neptune-mass
planets around all stars within 10 parsecs and around a
statistically significant sample of more distant stars. Such a
census, carried out with ground-based radial-velocity and
astrometric techniques, will determine the abundance of
planets and the correlation of stellar properties (such as
mass, metallicity, and binarity) with giant planet properties
(such as mass and orbital parameters). Importantly, giant
planets dynamically constrain the orbits left available to
terrestrial planets, influencing later searches for Earth-like
worlds. In this sense, the study of giant planets is an important
stepping stone to the more demanding study of the
smaller terrestrial planets.
The above Doppler and astrometric surveys are challenging,
requiring velocity precision of 1 m/s and astrometric
precision of 20 microarcseconds (for example, the
Keck Interferometer). Nonetheless, these efforts are relatively
inexpensive and the technology is already relatively
mature. Note that the planets detected in this first reconnaissance
phase have intrinsic brightnesses of a millionth
to a billionth that of the host star and many will be separated
by an arcsecond or less.
A second phase employs the space-telescopes Kepler--
a new Discovery-class mission designed to photometrically
search for terrestrial and giant planet transits around
tens of thousands of nearby stars--and the Space Interferometry
Mission (SIM), an interferometer with an astrometric
precision for terrestrial and giant planet detection
of 1-10 microarcseconds. Kepler will have a photometric
precision of one part in 100,000 and should discover
hundreds of terrestrial and giant planets, while SIM will
discover and astrometrically measure planet masses down
to a few Earth-masses. SIM will survey the youngest stars
close to the Sun to study the formation and evolution of
Jupiter-size planets. To obtain a secure mass for a terrestrial
planet requires a dynamical technique such as only
SIM will employ. The complementarity between the photometric-
transit technique of Kepler and the astrometricinterferometric
technique of SIM provides NASA with a
powerful program for pioneering terrestrial planet
discovery and preliminary terrestrial and giant planet
characterization.
The first and second phases of dynamical and transit
surveys must be followed by a third phase of direct spacebased
detection of the reflection and/or intrinsic light
of the planets themselves. For giant planets, the logical
technological and scientific precursor to a Terrestrial Planet
Finder (TPF) and the more difficult problem of direct
terrestrial planet imaging and spectroscopy is a spacebased
"giant planet finder." Using high-contrast imaging
and low-resolution spectroscopy, such a mission would be
capable of both discovery and analysis of the dynamically
dominant and brighter components of planetary systems,
while the later TPF will be able to observe at even larger
star-planet flux contrasts the spectral features of the water,
carbon dioxide, methane, and ammonia thought to reside
in the atmospheres of the terrestrial planets. The technology,
management structure, and discoveries of a giant
planet finder program would provide NASA with valuable
experience and guidance as it embarks upon the more
challenging TPF initiative.
Though the direct photometric and spectroscopic
detection of extrasolar giant planets will be a milestone in
planetary research, the discovery and study of Earth-like
planets that would be enabled by TPF is the ultimate goal
of this first era of extrasolar planetary exploration.
Radial-velocity programs are unlikely to detect extrasolar
planets with masses below a Uranus mass. Astrometric
searches with an accuracy of 10 microarcseconds
(KI) to 1 microarcsecond (SIM) can push the limit down to a
few times the Earth's mass and survey a volume out to
5-10 parsecs. A space-based photometric-transit survey
such as Kepler will extend to much larger volumes of space
and provide an initial estimate of the frequency of terrestrial
planets. However, direct imaging and spectroscopy of
Earth-like planets will require TPF, an infrared interferometer
or an optical coronagraph that can suppress the light
of the central star to unprecedented levels, to reveal for the
first time the atmospheres of planets like our own outside
the solar system.
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