AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 947 AM EDT SUN APR 9 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE N IS PUTTING AREA IN COOL...DRY N TO NE FLOW. HAVE LOWERED DEW POINTS AGAIN SLIGHTLY...TWEAKED WINDS AND ADJUSTED RH VALUES. REST OF FORECAST OK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM EDT SUN APR 9 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO REDUCE EASTERN AREA CLOUDINESS MUCH FASTER PER SATELLITE TRENDS...AND TO REDUCE DEWPOINTS AND ASSOCIATED MINIMUM SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 20S PROGD TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ONLY THE RUC DEWPOINTS ARE CLOSE TO CAPTURING THE TREND AT THIS STAGE. WE KEEP DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN IMPLIED BY EITHER OF THE NAM OR GFS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WE ALSO UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE RELATIVE HUMIDITY CHANGES. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM EDT SUN APR 9 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INFILTRATING THE FORECAST AREA. LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY BEFORE THE ECLIPSE SHOWED NICELY AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS SINKING SOUTH IN CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TO OUR EAST...AND ADVECTED SOUTH BY STRONG NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...WITH LOW CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SLIDING SOUTH ALSO. CALLS TO OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INDICATE ANY RAIN SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS FROM EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING HAVE ENDED...SO WE WILL GO WITH A FAIRLY DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING WITH RESIDUAL POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE YET AN ATMOSPHERE TYPIFIED BY MOSTLY SINKING AIR SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE CONVECTION TODAY. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE RIDGE REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR OUR EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING...WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH CONTINUE AT THIS LATE HOUR. WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH LATE MORNING AS BEST COLD ADVECTION PASS OVER AND FINALLY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND EASTERN WINDS COULD GET A BOOST EARLY WITH ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT WEAKENING WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WILL LIMIT WINDS TO NO MORE THAN BREEZY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL CONTINUE ONGOING FORECAST OF 50S/60S MOUNTAINS AND 60S FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND MONDAY MORNING SHOULD SHOW A SURFACE HIGH POSITION IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHERN CWFA. ALOFT...HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING UPPER TROF AND RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE CLEAR...AND RATHER COOL...WITH LIGHT WINDS. MINIMA PROGD INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THROUGH THE 30S IN THE REST OF THE EASTERN CWFA. GIVEN CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER ZONES...APPEARS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN OUR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. SHOULD MOISTURE BE A TAD HIGHER SOUTH OF THERE AND OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN ERROR...PATCHY FROST COULD EXTEND WELL SOUTH TOWARD THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA AND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS. WILL PLAN TO ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. MINS PROGS IN THE 40S FOR THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. WITH SURFACE RIDGE POSITION PROGD TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWFA...LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE IS PROGD BY BOTH NAM AND GFS TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP FOR FAVORED SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ASPECT LOCATIONS MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE FORCING FOR THE LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EASTERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE RIDGE POSITION...SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. THEREFORE...WE RAISED MINIMA IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...AND COOLED A TAD IN THE EAST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS MODELS DRY OUT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AGAIN AND UPGLIDE FLOW BECOMES BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... OPERATIONAL GFS AND SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROJECT DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NITE. NO CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WITH THIS PACKAGE. AVIATION... SATELLITE IMAGERY PRIOR TO THE ECLIPSE SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT TRAPPED UNDER THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE NAM HAS PICKED UP ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ADVECTS IT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE SC PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD KEEP KCLT IN AND OUT OF AN MVFR OR LOW VFR CEILING THROUGH SUNRISE OR SO...AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO EVENTUALLY REACH KAND. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD DRY UP AND MIX OUT QUICKLY BY MID MORNING...SO ALL TAFS BECOME SKC WHEN THE WINDS ARE BROUGHT AROUND TO A MORE NE DIRECTION. LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY EVENING...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AT SUNSET BUT IT LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RB sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 630 AM EDT SUN APR 9 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO REDUCE EASTERN AREA CLOUDINESS MUCH FASTER PER SATELLITE TRENDS...AND TO REDUCE DEWPOINTS AND ASSOCIATED MINIMUM SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 20S PROGD TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ONLY THE RUC DEWPOINTS ARE CLOSE TO CAPTURING THE TREND AT THIS STAGE. WE KEEP DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN IMPLIED BY EITHER OF THE NAM OR GFS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WE ALSO UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE RELATIVE HUMIDITY CHANGES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM EDT SUN APR 9 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INFILTRATING THE FORECAST AREA. LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY BEFORE THE ECLIPSE SHOWED NICELY AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS SINKING SOUTH IN CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TO OUR EAST...AND ADVECTED SOUTH BY STRONG NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...WITH LOW CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SLIDING SOUTH ALSO. CALLS TO OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INDICATE ANY RAIN SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS FROM EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING HAVE ENDED...SO WE WILL GO WITH A FAIRLY DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING WITH RESIDUAL POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE YET AN ATMOSPHERE TYPIFIED BY MOSTLY SINKING AIR SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE CONVECTION TODAY. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE RIDGE REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR OUR EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING...WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH CONTINUE AT THIS LATE HOUR. WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH LATE MORNING AS BEST COLD ADVECTION PASS OVER AND FINALLY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND EASTERN WINDS COULD GET A BOOST EARLY WITH ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT WEAKENING WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WILL LIMIT WINDS TO NO MORE THAN BREEZY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL CONTINUE ONGOING FORECAST OF 50S/60S MOUNTAINS AND 60S FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND MONDAY MORNING SHOULD SHOW A SURFACE HIGH POSITION IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHERN CWFA. ALOFT...HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING UPPER TROF AND RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE CLEAR...AND RATHER COOL...WITH LIGHT WINDS. MINIMA PROGD INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THROUGH THE 30S IN THE REST OF THE EASTERN CWFA. GIVEN CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER ZONES...APPEARS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN OUR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. SHOULD MOISTURE BE A TAD HIGHER SOUTH OF THERE AND OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN ERROR...PATCHY FROST COULD EXTEND WELL SOUTH TOWARD THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA AND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS. WILL PLAN TO ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. MINS PROGS IN THE 40S FOR THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. WITH SURFACE RIDGE POSITION PROGD TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWFA...LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE IS PROGD BY BOTH NAM AND GFS TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP FOR FAVORED SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ASPECT LOCATIONS MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE FORCING FOR THE LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EASTERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE RIDGE POSITION...SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. THEREFORE...WE RAISED MINIMA IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...AND COOLED A TAD IN THE EAST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS MODELS DRY OUT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AGAIN AND UPGLIDE FLOW BECOMES BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... OPERATIONAL GFS AND SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROJECT DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NITE. NO CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WITH THIS PACKAGE. AVIATION... SATELLITE IMAGERY PRIOR TO THE ECLIPSE SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT TRAPPED UNDER THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE NAM HAS PICKED UP ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ADVECTS IT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE SC PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD KEEP KCLT IN AND OUT OF AN MVFR OR LOW VFR CEILING THROUGH SUNRISE OR SO...AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO EVENTUALLY REACH KAND. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD DRY UP AND MIX OUT QUICKLY BY MID MORNING...SO ALL TAFS BECOME SKC WHEN THE WINDS ARE BROUGHT AROUND TO A MORE NE DIRECTION. LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY EVENING...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AT SUNSET BUT IT LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SAB sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 257 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2006 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM...WEATHER NIL. RUC/NGM/GFS/NAM PROGS ESTABLISH DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER CWA THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS GENERATES SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT JUST NORTH OF CWA..BUT LOW LEVEL MUCH TOO DRY TO PLACE MENTION IN ZONES. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD WITH COMBINATION OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND PARTIAL CLOUD COVER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE LONG TERM...NGM PROG MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE TROF THAN GFS/NAM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION WHICH DELAYS ONSET OF SHOWERS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVAL CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED LATE IN PERIOD. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS POOLING OF BEST MOISTURE TO OCCUR ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. GFS/NAM WEAKEN ASSOCIATED UPPER JET AS TROUGH PASSES ACROSS CWA AND ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE DOES NOT SHARPEN UP UNTIL IT MOVES INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ZAJDEL wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 408 AM MDT MON APR 10 2006 .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SERN CO 10AM-9PM TODAY... CURRENTLY...DEW POINT AND HUMIDITY RECOVERY HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY POOR WITH MAXIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30 PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS OUR ERN CO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SERN CO PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED VERY LOW IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20F ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF S CNTRL AND SERN CO. ALSO...RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE KEPT THE HUMIDITY RECOVERY POOR WITH READINGS STILL IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS ACROSS THE SERN CO PLAINS NEAR THE SLY LLJ ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL ANALYSES SHOWED SWLY FLOW INCREASING ALOFT. HIGH MOUNTAIN PASS DOT AWOS SENSORS HAVE SUSTAINED 15-40KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40KTS WINDS ALREADY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DATA ARE INTERESTING AS INTENSE DOWNSLOPE DRYING WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. TODAY...RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED LAST NIGHT STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. SFC WINDS SHOULD BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER...LAPS SOUNDINGS YESTERDAY WHERE MIXED TO ALMOST H6...SO SEE NO REASON WHY WE CANNOT MIX THAT HIGH TODAY. H7 WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE 20-35KTS WITH SOME 50KT WINDS AROUND MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL THIS AFTN. SFC/PBL DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD INTO KS...IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY DONE SO THIS MORNING. SFC DEW POINT FORECAST WILL BE QUITE A CHALLENGE...AS MODEL AND MOS DATA ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF S CNTRL AND SERN CO GIVEN WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE AROUND THE CONTDVD. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TODAY WILL BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...EXCEPT AROUND THE CONTDVD WHERE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS SERN CO...PER MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS...SEEMS DOABLE. HAINES VALUES WILL BE AROUND 5 OR 6 ACROSS SERN CO. THE COMBINATION OF METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND DRY/DROUGHT STRESSED FUELS WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR LATER TODAY IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA...IF FIRE STARTS. THE ONLY FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WOULD BE IF A DENSE MOUNTAIN WAVE CI/CS SHIELD DEVELOPS CUTTING DOWN THE HEATING/MIXING...BUT THE MIDLEVELS ARE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SUPPORT THE MIXING. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...BUT THE BLM INDICATES FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL THERE PER WEBSITE. PLAN TO KEEP THE LOW POPS AROUND THE CONTDVD AND ADDED SOME THUNDER. TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING ULJ STREAK MOVES THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY-HANDED WITH ITS POPS/QPF ACROSS THE CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. IT PRINTS OUT ALMOST 1.00 INCH OF LIQUID TONIGHT AND SEEMS A LITTLE OVERDONE. IT IS PROBABLY A REFLECTION OF THE FINER TERRAIN RESOLUTION IN THE MODEL. I WENT WITH A 30(NAM)-70(GFS) BLEND FOR THE QPF TONIGHT. INCREASED THE POPS AROUND THE CONTDVD FOR TONIGHT BASE ON OUR NEIGHBORS. MIGHT SEE 1-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CONTDVD. OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SERN CO PLAINS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BREEZY OR DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TURBULENT MIXING...IT COULD BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME SERN CO PLAINS. METZE .LONG TERM... (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) UPPER TROF EXITS NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MID DAY TUESDAY ALLOWING SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN MTS TO DECREASE BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INCH OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...THOUGH DRYING IS QUICK TO MOVE IN ALOFT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS UPPER TROF PASSES...WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. 00Z NAM12 RUN KEPT IT DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...THOUGH DID HINT AT A MOIST LAYER AROUND H7- H6 MB WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 30S BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS GAVE SOME VERY MARGINAL CAPES OF AROUND 100 J/KG ACROSS THE NE SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. 06Z NAM12 IS NOW PRINTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG/NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE 10 POPS ACROSS THE NE QUAD OF THE FCST AREA AS THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE WINDY ONCE AGAIN...AND IF RHS DON'T REBOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUAD OF THE FCST AREA...THEN ANOTHER RED FLAG DAY MAY BE IN STORE SOUTH OF THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM...WITH THURSDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE BUNCH AS H7 TEMPS SOAR TO BETWEEN +10 TO +12C IN THE EAST...AND +7 TO +10 IN THE WEST. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE SE PLAINS...WITH 60S/70S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...AND UPPER 40S AND 50S ABOVE 10K FEET. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SNOW MELT TO RAMP UP LATE IN THE WEEK. HAVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY. UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK IS STILL FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NE ACROSS COLORADO FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHILE THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS REMAIN IN THE DRY AND WINDY SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE DELAYED POPS UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN THIS MAY BE TOO SOON IF THE SYSTEM IS STILL OFF THE CA COAST BY 00Z SAT. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST FOR THIS. RAMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE FOR FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...THEN PULLED THEM ENTIRELY FOR SUNDAY AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BOTTOM LINE FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL BE CONTINUED ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ221-COZ222-COZ225-COZ226-COZ227-COZ228-COZ229- COZ230-COZ231-COZ232-COZ233-COZ234-COZ235-COZ236-COZ237. && $$ 17/31 co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 215 AM MDT MON APR 10 2006 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MANY TODAY INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER THREAT...WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES. AFTER TODAY FOCUS REMAINS ON HOW WARM IT GETS AFTER TUESDAY. TODAY/TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL BUT SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO REALIZE 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING LOW TO MID 80 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE AREA. DRYLINE POSITION AND ITS IMPACT ON RH VALUES IS DIFFICULT. THE RUC/RUC13 AS WELL AS MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST ITS POSITION SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA (EASTERN 1/3 OF FORECAST AREA) WILL ONLY HELP REALIZE FULL 850 POTENTIAL AND ALSO SECURE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WITH THAT IN MIND UPGRADED FIRE WX WATCH TO A WARNING. FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED VORT MAX REACHES THE AREA. 850-700 LAYER VERY DRY SO FOR NOW THINK PREDOMINANT WX TYPE WOULD BE SOME VIRGA. WILL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR NOW. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...VARIOUS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15F COOLER THEN MONDAYS READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND INTO THE 75-80 RANGE AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 5-8F. THURSDAY-SUNDAY...GENERAL THINKING IS FOR THE WEST COAST SYSTEM TO FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MIDDAY SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE UPPED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SATURDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS WARMEST TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL BE AROUND 18Z...COOLING A FEW DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252-COZ253-COZ254. && $$ DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 545 AM EDT MON APR 10 2006 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS VORT MAX OVER SRN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO LIFTING SLOWLY E WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FROM WRN CONUS TROF LIFTS NE THROUGH NV/UT. LIGHT SHRA ASSOC WITH SHORTWAVE OVER SRN MANITOBA EXTENDS INTO FAR NRN MN AS NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AND SFC OBS. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SRN PORTION OF THIS LINE OF SHRA BREAKING APART. MID-HIGH CLDS FROM THIS FEATURE HAVE SPREAD INTO FCST AREA AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE. TODAY...WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES VORT MAX OVER SRN MANITOBA SHOULD TRACK JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR PER 00Z MODELS. GFS/RUC SHOWS BEST 290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STAY NORTH OF LAKE BUT WITH SOME LOWER CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AROUND 30 MB BRUSHING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND FAR ERN COUNTIES WILL KEEP MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA OVER THESE AREAS. EXPECT SOME BKN MID-LVL CLOUDS TO DRIFT OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO THE SOUTH. WITH 850 MB TEMPS 4-5C WOULD EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOW 60S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. SRLY FLOW WILL AGAIN KEEP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY COOLER ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE (MID TO UPR 40S). TONIGHT AND TUE...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AXIS OF STRONGER H85 WINDS AND HIGHER INSTABILITY TO REMAIN WEST OF UPR MI TONIGHT. THUS...TOOK OUT CHC OF PCPN OVER WRN COUNTIES BUT LEFT IN A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS/UKMET INDICATE H85 THETA-E RIDGE AND AXIS OF INSTABILITY (SI'S NEAR ZERO) SHIFT E INTO THE WRN FCST AREA TUE AFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SO KEPT CURRENT GRID FCST OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WEST HALF. MIXING TO 850 MB WITH TEMPS OF AROUND 10C WOULD YIELD INLAND HIGHS TUE NEAR 70F FOR WEST HALF. AGAIN SRLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI WILL KEEP INLAND TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST AND IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORE. TUE NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING TRIGGERING SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT. ORIENTATION OF 8H JET MAX AND BEST 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT FAVORED CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES SO BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. KEPT IN MENTION OF THUNDER WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND SI/S NEAR ZERO. MODELS STILL HINT AT SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AREA ON WED SO STILL A LITTLE HESITANT TO PULL OUT SHRA COMPLETELY FOR WED. WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST AREAS WITH MIXING OF 850 MB TEMPS OF 4-6C TO SFC. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 345 AM CDT MON APR 10 2006 .DISCUSSION... FCST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPS AND WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES TNGHT AND TUES. SKIES CLEARING THIS MRNG OVER FA AS CIRRUS FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE BORDER SPREADS EAST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MANY LOCALES INTO EARLY AFTN ALLOWING TEMPS TO LIKELY REACH WARMEST READINGS OF 2006. 00Z UPPER ANALYSES STATIONED 10C H8 THERMAL GRADIENT AT OUR DOORSTEP. SFC PARCEL TRAJECTORIES INDICATE ADVECTIVE FLOW WILL STEER IN AN AIR MASS CAPABLE OF AT LEAST HIGHS REACHING 70...AND WITH PLENTY OF MID- APRIL SUN THINK MID 70S ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN. GUSTY WINDS DRIVING THIS WAA WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE FAVORED MN RIVER VALLEY. 00Z BUFKIT DATA FROM THE NAM INDICATED LOWEST 3KM LAPSE RATES IN SW CWA NEAR SUPER ADIABATIC WITH MOMENTUM TRNSFR ENABLING AT LEAST 925MB WINDS TO MAKE IT TO THE SFC. BUT STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS IS QUESTIONABLE BEFORE 21Z. GIVEN NAM AND RUC SFC GRADIENT ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY JUST WITH LOWER PRESSURES...THINK WINDS WILL STAY NARROWLY BELOW CRITERIA WITH A GUST OR TWO OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE OFF BUFFALO RIDGE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE NCEP MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE DAY. SFC WARM FRONT ORGANIZES DURING THE AFTN JUST NORTH OF CWA. WITH A 50-60KT LLJ KICKING IN SUPPORTED BY BROAD UPPER AIR DIFFLUENCE...FORCING FOR PRECIP AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE NRTHN CWA AND NORTHBOUND. HAVE LOWERED OR ELIMINATED POPS THEREFORE FOR SOUTHERN MN TNGHT. AS 995MB LOW LIFTS NE COLD FRONT TO THEN SWING THRU CWA ON TUES. 06Z NAM SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND UKMET. HAVE GONE JUST A BIT FASTER THAN THIS LATEST NAM RUN WITH FROPA TIMING. NAM HAS BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERAL RUNS THAN GFS...AND BELIEVE IT MORE SO AS TDS ON MORNING SFC ANALYSIS HAD ALREADY ROSE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FREE OF TRUE MOISTURE ADVECTION. WITH A NEAR 70 DEGREE DAY ON TUES LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MUCAPE PROGGED CONSISTENTLY BY THE NAM OF NEAR 1000 J/KG...HAVE TWEAKED TUES AFTN POPS UP IN EASTERN CWA. FRONT IS THRU AREA BY 06Z WEDS WITH A NICE DAY SETTING UP AS H8 TEMPS DROP ONLY TO 6C AND MEN AND MEX GUIDANCE HAVE AFTN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S STILL. LONGER TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY 6-10 DAY 500 MB HEIGHTS AND ANOMALIES FROM THE GFS INDICATES NEGATIVE HEIGHTS IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH A POSITIVE ANOMALY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RESULTS IN SW FLOW ALOFT FOR US WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS SEEN IN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. DURING THE LONGER RANGE THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST IS ON FRIDAY WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. KEPT HIGHS/LOWS NEAR MEX VALUES WHICH ARE SOME 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ MTF/RAH mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 306 AM CDT MON APR 10 2006 .DISCUSSION... EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU NV WHILE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS ERN MT/ERN WY THRU THE DAY TODAY IN RESPONSE TO LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST COAST TROF. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH DECENT MIXING FROM AROUND 850MB. WINDS LOOK TOO MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY SO WILL HOLD OFF AS WINDS MAY JUST BARELY MEET CRITERIA. GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WL INCLUDE WINDY WORDING FOR ALL ZONES. MIXING DOWN FROM 850MB WOULD GIVE US HIGHS AROUND 80 TODAY WHICH IS A GREAT MATCH WITH GUIDANCE. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EXTREME. NRN PLAINS SFC LOW WL MOVE NEWD INTO SRN MANITOBA TUESDAY AND TRAILING CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU ERN NEB/SWRN IA ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS QUITE MEAGER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THINK ACCAS DECK IS MOST LIKELY THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS. SOME MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THIS ACCAS DECK AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE STEEP AND STRONG LLJ AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO IOWA. WL CARRY A SMALL POP TO COVER FOR THIS...BUT VIRGA SEEMS MORE LIKELY IF ANYTHING AT ALL. THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CDFNT THAT COMES THRU THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WL REMAIN. LIMITING FACTORS CONTINUE TO BE MEAGER MOISTURE AND A CAP THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CAP WEAKENS ACROSS WRN IA TOWARDS 00Z AND AS FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING THRU ERN NEB...THINK SOME PCPN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN IA SO WL CONT LOW POPS THRU 06Z WED. ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY AND WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY. CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL POPS FOR THIS WHERE LLVL CONVERGENCE LOOKS BEST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF DIGS UPSTREAM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LEE SIDE LOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS AND MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS FOR SATURDAY. SYSTEM WL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES HAVE YET TO BE WORKED OUT BUT HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO SAT/SAT NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS SYSTEM. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ GRIFFIS ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 407 AM MDT MON APR 10 2006 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. && .DISCUSSION...TWO SHORTWAVE FEATURES OF INTEREST THIS MORNING ARE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING THROUGH MEAN WEST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION. INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EJECTING ACROSS GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT HAS REACHED THE WASATCH FRONT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL UT. 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHWEST UT HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS PER RUC ANALYSIS...AS WAVE WHICH EARLIER DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS TRANSLATED NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ID. LIKEWISE...ASSOCIATED BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS ALSO DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE RESULTING FROM WEAKENING CONVERGENCE WITHIN THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN UT THROUGH MID MORNING IN REGION OF PVA ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT...PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF STALLED BOUNDARY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF KSFO NEAR 130W EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THIS POINT DO NOT ANTICIPATE SNOW AMOUNTS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD. MEAN MID LEVEL RIDGE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID- WEEK...AS UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OFF CA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT HOLDING OFF ON EJECTING CA UPPER LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE CONFINED MENTION OF PRECIP TO FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. && .AVIATION...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY AT THE AIRPORT THROUGH AFTERNOON. MODELS KEEP COLD FRONT RELATIVELY STATIONARY TOADY AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE DAY. ONLY EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...SEAMAN AVIATION...YOUNG ut AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1115 AM EDT MON APR 10 2006 .UPDATE... RADARS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATED LIGHT RETURNS FROM A BAND OF CLOUDS OVER E CNTRL UPR MI SUPPORTED BY 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WRN ONTARIO SHRTWV. SO FAR...ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS WERE OBSERVED UPSTREAM AT KIMT AND AT THE NWS OFFICE. 14Z KSAW TAMDAR SNDG INDICATED MOISTURE MAINLY ABV 700 MB. SO...MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS LIKELY REMAINING AS VIRGA. UPDATE INCLUDED MENTION OF SCT SPRINKLES OVER THE ERN CWA...MAINLY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NAM/RUC 850-700 MB RH AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT LINGERING MID CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE WEST AND INTO CNTRL UPR MI LATE. GOING TEMP FCST WITH MAX READINGS INTO THE LOWER 60S LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MIXING TOWARD 850 MB TEMPS TO NEAR 4C. .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 545 AM EDT MON APR 10 2006. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS VORT MAX OVER SRN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO LIFTING SLOWLY E WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FROM WRN CONUS TROF LIFTS NE THROUGH NV/UT. LIGHT SHRA ASSOC WITH SHORTWAVE OVER SRN MANITOBA EXTENDS INTO FAR NRN MN AS NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AND SFC OBS. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SRN PORTION OF THIS LINE OF SHRA BREAKING APART. MID-HIGH CLDS FROM THIS FEATURE HAVE SPREAD INTO FCST AREA AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE. TODAY...WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES VORT MAX OVER SRN MANITOBA SHOULD TRACK JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR PER 00Z MODELS. GFS/RUC SHOWS BEST 290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STAY NORTH OF LAKE BUT WITH SOME LOWER CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AROUND 30 MB BRUSHING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND FAR ERN COUNTIES WILL KEEP MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA OVER THESE AREAS. EXPECT SOME BKN MID-LVL CLOUDS TO DRIFT OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO THE SOUTH. WITH 850 MB TEMPS 4-5C WOULD EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOW 60S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. SRLY FLOW WILL AGAIN KEEP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY COOLER ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE (MID TO UPR 40S). TONIGHT AND TUE...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AXIS OF STRONGER H85 WINDS AND HIGHER INSTABILITY TO REMAIN WEST OF UPR MI TONIGHT. THUS...TOOK OUT CHC OF PCPN OVER WRN COUNTIES BUT LEFT IN A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS/UKMET INDICATE H85 THETA-E RIDGE AND AXIS OF INSTABILITY (SI'S NEAR ZERO) SHIFT E INTO THE WRN FCST AREA TUE AFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SO KEPT CURRENT GRID FCST OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WEST HALF. MIXING TO 850 MB WITH TEMPS OF AROUND 10C WOULD YIELD INLAND HIGHS TUE NEAR 70F FOR WEST HALF. AGAIN SRLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI WILL KEEP INLAND TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST AND IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORE. TUE NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING TRIGGERING SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT. ORIENTATION OF 8H JET MAX AND BEST 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT FAVORED CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES SO BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. KEPT IN MENTION OF THUNDER WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND SI/S NEAR ZERO. MODELS STILL HINT AT SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AREA ON WED SO STILL A LITTLE HESITANT TO PULL OUT SHRA COMPLETELY FOR WED. WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST AREAS WITH MIXING OF 850 MB TEMPS OF 4-6C TO SFC. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLB(UPDATE) VOSS(PREV DISC) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1018 AM CDT MON APR 10 2006 .UPDATE...FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING..BUT DID A QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK SKY COVER/TEMPS/WINDS AND POPS FOR TODAY AND TONITE. FIRST IMPULSE HAS PASSED BY TO THE NORTH.. WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE EVIDENT IN WV SAT IMAGERY MOVING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS ATTM. SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS WHILE MOVING NEWD..RESULTING IN A RATHER RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MN FOR THE REST OF TODAY. NORMALLY..THIS WUD ARGUE FOR RATHER STRONG WINDS OVER THE SW HALF OF THE MPX CWA..BUT 500 AND 1000 M AGL PROFILER WINDS AT BOTH WOODLAKE MN AND NELEIGH NE ARE RATHER MEAGER RIGHT NOW..IMPLYING THAT WINDS MAY NOT INCREASE QUITE AS RAPIDLY. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM WHERE THEY ARE RIGHT NOW BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.. BUT PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS EARLIER THOUGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWN TO ALMOST NIL..AS SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF. THIS SHUD BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY..WITH SOME ALTOCUMULUS SPREADING INTO WRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON ON NOSE OF PLUME OF STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FINALLY..PREVIOUS IDEA OF BEST POPS TONITE NORTH OF MPX CWA APPEARS TO BE ON TARGET AS 55-60 KT LLJ SHUD RESULT IN BEST FORCING OVER NRN MN. HOWEVER..THERE WILL STILL BE LIFT OVER CENT MN..SO CHOSE NOT TO REMOVE POPS ENTIRELY. BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT ON TUES..ROUGHLY LAKE MILLE LACS TO NEW ULM AND EASTWARD. MILLER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON APR 10 2006/ DISCUSSION... FCST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPS AND WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES TNGHT AND TUES. SKIES CLEARING THIS MRNG OVER FA AS CIRRUS FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE BORDER SPREADS EAST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MANY LOCALES INTO EARLY AFTN ALLOWING TEMPS TO LIKELY REACH WARMEST READINGS OF 2006. 00Z UPPER ANALYSES STATIONED 10C H8 THERMAL GRADIENT AT OUR DOORSTEP. SFC PARCEL TRAJECTORIES INDICATE ADVECTIVE FLOW WILL STEER IN AN AIR MASS CAPABLE OF AT LEAST HIGHS REACHING 70...AND WITH PLENTY OF MID- APRIL SUN THINK MID 70S ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN. GUSTY WINDS DRIVING THIS WAA WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE FAVORED MN RIVER VALLEY. 00Z BUFKIT DATA FROM THE NAM INDICATED LOWEST 3KM LAPSE RATES IN SW CWA NEAR SUPER ADIABATIC WITH MOMENTUM TRNSFR ENABLING AT LEAST 925MB WINDS TO MAKE IT TO THE SFC. BUT STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS IS QUESTIONABLE BEFORE 21Z. GIVEN NAM AND RUC SFC GRADIENT ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY JUST WITH LOWER PRESSURES...THINK WINDS WILL STAY NARROWLY BELOW CRITERIA WITH A GUST OR TWO OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE OFF BUFFALO RIDGE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE NCEP MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE DAY. SFC WARM FRONT ORGANIZES DURING THE AFTN JUST NORTH OF CWA. WITH A 50-60KT LLJ KICKING IN SUPPORTED BY BROAD UPPER AIR DIFFLUENCE...FORCING FOR PRECIP AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE NRTHN CWA AND NORTHBOUND. HAVE LOWERED OR ELIMINATED POPS THEREFORE FOR SOUTHERN MN TNGHT. AS 995MB LOW LIFTS NE COLD FRONT TO THEN SWING THRU CWA ON TUES. 06Z NAM SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND UKMET. HAVE GONE JUST A BIT FASTER THAN THIS LATEST NAM RUN WITH FROPA TIMING. NAM HAS BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERAL RUNS THAN GFS...AND BELIEVE IT MORE SO AS TDS ON MORNING SFC ANALYSIS HAD ALREADY ROSE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FREE OF TRUE MOISTURE ADVECTION. WITH A NEAR 70 DEGREE DAY ON TUES LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MUCAPE PROGGED CONSISTENTLY BY THE NAM OF NEAR 1000 J/KG...HAVE TWEAKED TUES AFTN POPS UP IN EASTERN CWA. FRONT IS THRU AREA BY 06Z WEDS WITH A NICE DAY SETTING UP AS H8 TEMPS DROP ONLY TO 6C AND MEN AND MEX GUIDANCE HAVE AFTN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S STILL. LONGER TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY 6-10 DAY 500 MB HEIGHTS AND ANOMALIES FROM THE GFS INDICATES NEGATIVE HEIGHTS IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH A POSITIVE ANOMALY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RESULTS IN SW FLOW ALOFT FOR US WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS SEEN IN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. DURING THE LONGER RANGE THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST IS ON FRIDAY WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. KEPT HIGHS/LOWS NEAR MEX VALUES WHICH ARE SOME 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. $$ mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 928 AM EDT MON APR 10 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... QUICK UPDATE FOR SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPLICATIONS. 12Z GSO SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYNESS THROUGH THE COLUMN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID LAYER CAPPING INVERSION ATOP A DEEP DRY ADIABATIC LAYER FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FURTHER DRYING WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S. THE 09Z RUC SUPPORTS THIS REASONING AND HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS TO SUCH. OTHERWISE... A PLEASANT DAY IN STORE WITH LIGHT VEERING WINDS UNDER SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 115 AM EDT MON APR 10 2006) SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY... WITH RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW WITH THE RIDGE MOVING ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S TODAY... WARMING TO THE LOW AND MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PUMPS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LITTLE OR NO CHANGE EXPECTED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GRID PARAMETERS. A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT TRANSITS THE AREA IN PREDOMINANT NW FLOW. AN UPSTREAM MCS OVER THE MIDWEST MAY DEPOSIT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AT TIMES...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NC. WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES RIPPLING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WE SHOULD BE SUBJECT TO REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR WHICH SHOULD TEMPER ANY MAJOR WARM UP IN THIS REGION. AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VSBY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER CENTRAL NC. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LOCKLEAR nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1045 AM CDT MON APR 10 2006 .UPDATE... LOWER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED COMPLETELY EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING. CLOUDS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN MODULATING INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL CLOUDS MID/HIGH BASED AND ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST PLUME SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING/COLORADO. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS...FURTHER MODIFICATION OF LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS ALONG WITH NEAR SURFACE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES AT LEAST AS WARM AS SUNDAY...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER. HAVE THEREFORE RAISED MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON 2-4 DEGREES MOST PLACES...WHICH THEN PLACES MORE EMPHASIS ON FIRE DANGER. WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS NEARLY OBSERVED OVER NW OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME...AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPANDING QUICKLY EASTWARD...HAVE COORDINATED WITH THE TULSA WFO IN EXPANDING THE EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING FARTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE ALL AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHANDLER...TO HENRIETTA TEXAS...DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND WIND. THANKS TULSA FOR COORDINATION. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALSO APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE RUC/NAM INDICATING STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TIMING OF THESE WINDS SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SURFACE FLOW MAY NOT DECOUPLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING... ALLOWING ADVISORY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENING...AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY. .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ005- OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ013- OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ021- OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029- OKZ030-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039- OKZ040-OKZ044-OKZ045. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011- OKZ012-OKZ013-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019- OKZ020-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027- OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036- OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ044. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR OKZ004-OKZ005- OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ013- OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018. TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084- TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088. JAMES -------------------------- 418 AM CDT MON APR 10 2006 .DISCUSSION... ANTICIPATED INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT AMOUNT OF HEATING WE COULD REALIZE THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT STILL THINK TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF NEAR MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY...EVEN THOUGH RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE 30 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED YESTERDAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO TEMPS- WINDS-KBDI. IN ADDITION...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TOMORROW. THIS WATCH WILL COVER AREAS UNDER THE CURRENT WARNING AND LOCATIONS A BIT FARTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER TOMORROW. WESTERN PORTIONS OF TOMORROWS WATCH WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS AS WEAK FRONT/DRY LINE SHIFTS INTO AREA...BUT THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOWER RH VALUES...NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. AS FAR AS THE WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW...CURRENT FORECAST HAS SPEEDS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA TODAY AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOMORROW. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. IF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS THICK OR WIDESPREAD AS EXPECTED...DEEPER MIXING MAY RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS AND ADVISORIES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. MINIMAL CHANGE TO POP/WX PORTION OF FORECAST. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO VERY ISOLATED AND PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF ELEVATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL JET MOISTURE PLUME. MORE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ARRIVAL OF STRONG STORM SYSTEM...WILL YIELD KEEPING POPS INTACT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 59 79 58 / 0 0 20 20 HOBART OK 81 60 81 56 / 0 0 10 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 82 60 81 61 / 0 0 10 10 GAGE OK 82 59 83 49 / 0 10 10 10 PONCA CITY OK 79 60 80 55 / 0 10 20 20 DURANT OK 77 59 78 62 / 0 0 20 20 && 23/11 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 220 PM MDT MON APR 10 2006 .DISCUSSION... 17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SLIDING ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING...AND ANOTHER BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH WYOMING TROUGH WAS NEAR THE WY/MT/SD BORDER WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KS. MODELS BOTH INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL OFF OF THE 12Z RAOBS...EXCEPT THAT THE NAM APPEARS UNDERDONE WITH STRENGTH OF SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST. OVERALL MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WHEN DIFFERENCES ARISE. TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO APROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH. CWA FINDS IT SELF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF H3 JET OVERNIGHT...AND RATHER STRONG AREA H85 CONVERGENCE ALONG LLJ/FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. DESPITE THE FORCING 12Z RAOBS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE IN DOWNSTREAM OBS...SO THINK LIFT WILL GO BY PRETTY MUCH UNNOTICED. FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY WHERE FRONT WILL BE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER TEMPS LIKELY WILL NOT PLUMMET QUICKLY AND RH VALUES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER...SO WILL LEAVE AS IS AND CANCEL IT EARLY IF NECESARRY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS FROPA TONIGHT WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...WITH AREAS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY STAYING QUITE WARM AS WINDS STAY UP. TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPS TO FORM. TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE PROFILES...HARD TO IGNORE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LIFT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM. STORM MOTION WOULD KEEP THINGS ALONG NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND FINE TUNED WX GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE DEPARTING THE EASTERN CWA AROUND 00Z...AND WILL ADD A BRIEF MENTION OF -TSRA ACROSS THIS AREA UNTIL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. RIDGE BEGINS TO DAMPEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CWA. MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS THIS TROUGH DEVELOPS...BUT WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AM GOING TO KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE...SEE NO REASON WHY CWA WONT HEAT UP NICELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. IN THE EXTENDED...PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE EXTENDED CENTER AROUND TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL WX ON SATURDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING REASONABLE AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL FOLLOW A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE 06Z GFS...WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM ECMWF AND CANADIAN. WILL GO WITH A BIT SLOWER TIMING OF FEATURES...AS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND MEMBERS SUPPORT THIS TREND. FOR WX...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR PRECIPITATION FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINING THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY. WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECENT AMOUNT OF ELEVATED FORCING PRESENT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOTS OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND LITTLE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. AM GOING TO HOLD OFF ANY POPS UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST DRY LINE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA...BUT WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER THINK THAT DRY LINE WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CWA AND ORIENTED POPS AS SUCH. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY WARM AND WINDY AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS DAY FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS TEMPS WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN WARM AIR ALOFT...AND WINDS WITH A SLIGHT UPSLOPE DIRECTION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT...BUT WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OF AREAS WITH EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS. ALSO WENT SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE/MODEL TEMPS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE DRYLINE AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252-COZ253-COZ254. && $$ JRM ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 356 PM EDT MON APR 10 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CONVECTION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT WEATHER...19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. EXCLUDING THE NORTHEAST WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS STILL PRESENT. A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERED THE WEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN STATES. UPPER MICHIGAN IS IN GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE RIDGE. ONE SHRTWV RIDGING THROUGH THE FLOW CROSSED UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AND SOME MID CLOUDS. NOW THAT THE SHRTWV HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THE CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP BECAUSE OF IT (AIDED BY 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM 1C EAST TO 6C WEST). READINGS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST WEST. FARTHER WEST...ANOTHER SHRTWV CAN BE SEEN MOVING THROUGH WYOMING. AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV...998MB LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE BLACK HILLS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED BY THE RUC ARE 15C OR GREATER AHEAD OF THIS LOW NEAR SIOUX FALLS. MOISTURE HAS BEEN ON THE RETURN AHEAD OF THE LOW TOO WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 40S F. HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE IS BASICALLY RIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE AS SHOWN BY 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH PLATTE AND OMAHA NEBRASKA. TONIGHT...SHRTWV OVER WYOMING IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SHRTWV WILL HELP PULL THE SURFACE LOW INTO SE MANITOBA BY MORNING. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE LOW...DUE TO BOTH STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW AND NORMAL DIURNAL INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION IS THEN PROGGED TO PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO BY SUNRISE. HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ISLE ROYALE IN THE EVENT THE CONVECTION ALSO FIRES FARTHER EASTWARD...BUT EXAMINATION OF NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT A COMBINATION OF CAPPING AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL PROBABLY KEEP CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES ARE THE ONLY CONCERN. HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR WEST INTO THE LOWER 50S DUE TO S TO SE DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH 40S FORECASTED ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY...SHRTWV AND SURFACE LOWS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO...PULLING THE WARM FRONT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. 850MB TEMPS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 10-12C... AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...READINGS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. AREAS OVER THE WESTERN U.P. WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S. DURING THE AFTERNOON...ANOTHER SHRTWV (CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA) IS PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA...RESULTING IN SOME HEIGHT FALLS...THOUGH RELATIVELY MINOR. NONETHELESS...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S) COMBINED WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND HEIGHT FALLS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN U.P.. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY NIGHT...BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHRTWV LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA. SOUNDINGS STILL ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR THE AMOUNT OF CAPE...GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...HOWEVER WITH A DECENT SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET LIFTING ACROSS MN INTO NW ONTARIO...THE DYNAMICS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CONVECTION. HAVE SHIFTED THE LIKELY AREA FARTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFS...WHICH SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF POST FRONTAL RAINFALL DUE TO SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ALSO DELAYED TIMING IN THE EAST OF LIKELY POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. COOLEST READINGS WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN U.P. AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY SLOT COMING IN BEHIND TUESDAY NIGHT\S SHRTWV COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF CLEARING DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE WESTERN U.P.... WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD AS THE SHRTWV CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY (4-6C)...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AND THE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR AND DOWNSLOPE AREAS. LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE WESTERN U.P. AND EAST OF MARQUETTE WILL LIKELY BE COOLER AS THE WESTERLY WINDS DRIVE IN THE COOLER AIR OFF THE LAKE. NAM/GFS/UKMET SUGGEST ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING TOWARDS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST... BRINGING IT OVER UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND THE PARALLEL NAM ARE SLOWER...HOLDING IT BACK OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SAME TIME. THE UKMET IS SLOWER YET...KEEPING IT OVER NW ONTARIO. FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE REGARDING THIS SHRTWV (A GFS/PARALLEL NAM SOLUTION)...WHICH RESULTS IN BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY. THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVES ACROSS THE REST OF UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SHRTWV. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG PRECIPITATION PRODUCER AS MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...BUT ENOUGH TO PROBABLY PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS. COOLER NIGHT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR AS SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY...ALL THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED SHRTWVS ARE PROGGED TO BE LOCATED IN A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY THIS TIME WHILE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHERN U.S.. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING BEHIND THESE SHRTWVS...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. SOME CIRRUS MAY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL INHIBIT SUNSHINE ALL THAT MUCH. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 2-6C RANGE COMBINED WITH THE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP...SO EXPECT SOME COOLING ALONG THE LAKESHORES DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL EXTENDED MODELS...INDICATING THAT THE FLOW IS TO REMAIN NEARLY ZONAL FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD... THEN AMPLIFICATION OCCURS ON THE WEST COAST AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE DETAILS...BUT OVERALL ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. A SHRTWV TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT IS PROGGED TO CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. HAVE INSERTED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN U.P. FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT...THEN KEPT THE CHANCE GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH CROSSES. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHRTWV TROUGH WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY... ALONG WITH SOME COOLER AIR. 850MB TEMPS MAY DROP TO 2-4C SATURDAY MORNING (COMPARED WITH 8-10C FRIDAY MORNING)...BUT THESE SHOULD RISE LATE IN THE DAY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN U.P.. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY IN THE WESTERN U.S....CAUSING AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE SITTING NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS AND BECOMES MORE OF A SHEARED SHRTWV TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS RIDGE SHOULD KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SHRTWV TROUGH IS PROGGED TO GET CLOSE TO UPPER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THIS TROUGH. THIS SHRTWV TROUGH IS THEN SHOWN TO DROP TO THE SE AS IT UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DRIER MONDAY AS EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW SETS IN. 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED AROUND 2C BY THE 06Z GFS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 350 PM EDT MON APR 10 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEVELOPMENT OF GOOD LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CHANCES FOR PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MARCH THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW FAIRLY AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE CONUS...WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST...A FAIRLY PROMINENT RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US...AND A WELL DEFINED TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA IS ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST US WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 36 TO 48 HOURS...FURTHER HELPING TO ERODE/DISPLACE THE CENTRAL US RIDGE. FINALLY...AN ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE EAST JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND WORK TO DRIVE THE DEVELOP A DECENT UNIFIED UPPER TROUGH EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDWEEK. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION AND PROGRESSION OF THINGS THROUGH 36-HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM DOES APPEAR A BIT QUICKER BEYOND THAT POINT. THE PARALLEL NAM IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO PRE-FRONTAL PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL GENERALLY STICK CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND PARALLEL NAM FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST. TODAY/S MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OWING TO ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 295-305K LAYER ARE DEPARTING...AND EXPECT THINGS TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT UNTIL SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE H5 RIDGE WORK IN TOWARD MORNING. AS THE MYRIAD OF WESTERN SHORTWAVES PUSH INTO THE RIDGE...THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...AND WE WILL SEE A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL (925-850MB) SOUTHWEST WIND MAXIMA WORK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN NOCTURNALLY A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES OF AROUND 320K INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MARCH ACROSS THE CWFA WEDNESDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED THETA-E ADVECTION AND 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E VALUES OF AROUND ZERO...WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDER ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN...WE WILL GENERALLY BE DEALING WITH A STEADY INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING. WINDS ON THE LAKES WILL BE KEPT IN CHECK GIVEN THE STILL COLD WATER TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF MIXING...ALTHOUGH WOULD STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT TUESDAY NIGHT ON LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME DECENT POST-FRONTAL UPPER DIVERGENCE IS PROGGED BY THE GFS ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN CWFA...SO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT QG FORCING TO WANE AND ANY REMAINING PCPN TO COME TO AN END IN MOST AREAS AS RIDGING STARTS TO WORK IN. HOWEVER...PROGGED 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COLD OVER THE NORTH...SO WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER IN THAT AREA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE ARRIVE IN EARNEST BY THURSDAY...AND LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HOLD ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FAIR SKIES EXPECTED. DURING THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS IS PROBABLY NOT A BAD WAY TO GO. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS REASONABLY SUPPORTIVE OF ITS OPERATIONAL COUNTERPART...LENDING CONFIDENCE TOWARD USING A BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE. OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NOGAPS AND LOCAL HEMISPHERIC WRF...ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THIS TIME SPAN AS WELL. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW LIKELY PASSING BY JUST TO THE NORTH...HELPING TO DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH A LIMITED DURATION OF RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOWALTER INDICES ARE NEAR AND SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO...SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME THUNDER ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. A VERY PROMINENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER MICHIGAN. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND 00Z GFS BOTH BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE SUFFICIENTLY SO THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS ABLE TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER WAVE...ALTHOUGH EVEN THE GFS/S FARTHER SOUTH LOW WOULD STILL HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE PUSHED ON MONDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND KEEPING A BIT OF A MID-LEVEL COLD POOL OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWFA ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 321 PM CDT MON APR 10 2006 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CONVECTION CHANCES AND PLACEMENT TONIGHT...THEN LINGERING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES ON TUESDAY. CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW DEPICTED NEAR BROADUS IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA. CIRRUS SHIELD LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH CWA...WITH CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA...PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WITH WATER VAPOR INDICATING A SHORTWAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MOISTURE. CURRENTLY DEW POINTS IN THE SOUTHWEST ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 40 DEGREES...THUS THE CAPE VALUES ARE PRETTY LOW. THERE IS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND LATEST 18Z NAM AND RUC HINT AT DEVELOPMENT MOVING INTO THE WEST TONIGHT. ADJUSTED GRIDS SOMEWHAT TO HIT CHANCES HARDEST IN THE WEST AND NORTH...AND SPED THINGS UP WITH CHANCES ENDING IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. DID KEEP SOME LINGERING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LOW SKIRTS THE NORTHERN BORDER. DROPPED THUNDER MENTION TUESDAY MORNING BUT KEPT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TQ INDEX GIVING PRETTY HIGH VALUES DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. SERIOUSLY CONTEMPLATED THROWING IN SOME LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING AS MODELS INDICATE UPPER ENERGY SLOW TO EXIT. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE IT DRY FOR NOW AND LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE. WOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED RW/TRW WITH LITTLE QPF ANYWAY. ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER WEDNESDAY...WITH A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOISTURE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO DID NOT INTRODUCE ANY POPS. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS THE LONG TERM FORECAST OFF WITH DRY PLEASANT WEATHER ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE RIDGE MOVES RAPIDLY EAST...TO BE REPLACED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALSO FEATURES A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE THAT WILL LIKELY SET OFF AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE SHORT WAVE SAILS BY...THERE WILL BE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS TOO FAR WEST TO AFFECT US...UNLESS A NEW SHORT WAVE PEELS OFF OF IT. HOWEVER IT'S TOO FAR OUT TO BET ON THAT POSSIBILITY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 17/07 nd