FXUS62 KRAH 040027
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
825 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2003

SHRA ACTIVITY DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOSS OF HEATING. GFS 
AND ETA BOTH SUGGEST A BREAK IN THE SHRA ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE 
AREA UNTIL MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT 
WHERE SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. WILL BACK OFF ON POPS FOR 
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT ACROSS THE COASTAL 
PLAN AND JUST MENTION ISOLD SHRA. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE NW 
PIEDMONT.

WILL ALSO REMOVE WORDING FRO AFTERNOON SHRA/TSTMS IN THE NW 
PIEDMONT AS GFS AND ETA SUGGEST SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN 
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AUTUMN LIKE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH 
FRONT NOW STALLED OVER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. 
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION RESULTING FROM WEAK JET DYNAMICS WORKING ON 
WARM HUMID LOW LEVEL AIR HAS BROKEN OUT THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN 
VIRGINIA ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA INTO TENNESSEE.  WILL KEEP 
CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT AND MORNING CONVECTION FOR ENTIRE AREA AS 
RESIDUAL CONVECTION...TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACH FROM WEST AND 
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.

EXPECT LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.  FRONT WILL 
PUSH TO COAST FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDING IN THE NORTHWEST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR 
TO AREA BY SATURDAY. -SWH

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FOUR DAY EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE 
DOMINATED BY A NORTHERN STREAM AIRMASS WITH MUCH DRIER AIR THAN 
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY  
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPRAWL SOUTHEAST FROM THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH AND OFF THE 
COAST.  BIGGEST QUESTIONS MAY INVOLVE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDINESS WITH 
A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT AND WAVE DISTURBANCE LATE SUNDAY TO EARLY 
MONDAY AND THEN LOW CLOUD COVER WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW 
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CURRENT FORECASTS CALL FOR PARTLY OR 
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EACH DAY BUT NO MENTION OF RAIN THROUGH 
THE PERIOD. -RFG

.RAH...NONE.

JO