FXUS62 KRAH 151819
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGE IN SHORT TERM CENTERS AROUND AFFECTS OF DECAYING 
MCS OVER LOWER OH VALLEY ON SENSIBLE WEATHER TONIGHT/WED.

CURRENTLY...MSAS LOW LEVEL PARAMETERS HAS NOTED A PERSISTENT AREA OF 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN 
VICINITY OF NW PIEDMONT. AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 
LOWER 80S...EXPECT A FEW CELLS TO FIRE SHORTLY ALONG BLUE RIDGE THEN 
MIGRATE/DEVELOP SLOWLY SE TOWARD NW PIEDMONT.  ANOTHER INSTABILITY 
AXIS APPEARS TO LIE ALONG/JUST EAST OF I-95.  SEABREEZE CURRENTLY 
MOVING IN SHORE AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS INTO WAYNE AND SAMPSON 
COUNTIES AROUND 22-23Z. FOR NOW PLAN TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS 
IN THE NW AND SE AND HAVE A RIBBON OF NEGLIGIBLE POPS FROM SOUTHERN 
PIEDMONT IN THE NE PIEDMONT.

UPPER LEVEL FEATURE GENERATED BY GREAT LAKES MCS PROGGED TO BE JUST 
NW OF FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. TRANSLATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SUGGEST THAT THIS MOVEMENT NAY BE A LITTLE TARDY. AS PER MORNING 
DISCUSSION...BELIEVE NECESSARY TO MENTION CHANCE  POPS BY 09Z IN 
THE NW PIEDMONT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD IT EAST INTO REMAINDER OF 
NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED AM. MODELS GUIDANCE NOT TOO GUN HO WITH THE 
SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE BUT CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE 
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE...CHANCE POPS WARRANTED. 
-WSS 

TROF AND SHEAR AXIS SHIFT EAST LATE WED...PLAN TO CUT POPS OFF IN 
THE EVENING WEST...MIDNIGHTISH EAST. WEAK SURFACE FRONT LINGERS IN 
THE EAST THU AND FRI...A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE UPPER TROF 
POSITION...WITH THE ETA POSITION EAST KEEPING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW. 
INSTABILITY WILL BE NO PROBLEM...SO WILL STRATIFY POPS 20-30 WEST TO 
EAST. FRONT WANTS TO REMAIN STALLED OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND... 
SURPRISE. LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY WITH POTENTIAL 
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. 
CHANCE POPS IN THE 40 PERCENT CATEGORY LOOK OKAY AND WILL MAINTAIN 
THE DIURNAL NATURE PENDING TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF FEATURES. HARD TO 
ARGUE AGAINST CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S 
UNTIL WE SEE MORE CERTAINTY CONCERNING CLOUD COVER.

.RAH...NONE.

WSS/MLM