ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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NYZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/20/08 1455Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1445Z  JS
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LOCATION...WESTERN NEW YORK
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ATTN WFOS...BGM...BGM...BUF...
ATTN RFCS...NERFC...NERFC...
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EVENT...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT IR IMAGES DO INDICATE SOME CLOUD
TOP WARMING WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND COMING
OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS NOW RUNNING AROUND -28C. THE
FIRST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY STILL SHOW GOOD TEXTURE/STRUCTURE
WITH THE BAND OUT OVER THE LAKE AS SEVERAL BANDS OUT OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE CONVERGE INTO MORE OF A SINGLE BAND
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE AND INLAND. RECENT LAKE MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS IN
BUFKIT FROM WATERTOWN(KART) SEEM TO POINT TOWARD POSITIVE PARAMETERS FOR
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WITH VERY COLD 850-700MB TEMPS AND A VERY HIGH
INVERSION LEVEL. DID NOTE THE RECENT PNS WITH SPOTTER REPORT OF 3"/HR
SINCE MIDNIGHT AT PULASKI. AT THIS TIME DESPITE THE APPARENT CLOUD TOP
WARMING, BELIEVE LOCALIZED RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STAY UP AT LEAST IN THE
2-3"/HR RANGE. RECENT IR/VIS IMAGES WITH CU FIELD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON/GEORGIAN BAY ALSO POINT TOWARD A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND SFC TROF. AS OF 1445Z IMAGERY, THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BAND APPEARS TO BE RESPONDING TO THIS NORTHERLY FLOW
AND HAS SUNK MORE TO THE SOUTH WHILE FARTHER TO THE EAST THE BAND HAS
REMAINED IN RELATIVELY THE SAME SPOT. INTERESTINGLY, THE BAND ALSO BOWS
SOUTHEASTWARD AGAIN JUST BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE OVER S JEFFERSON/N OSWEGO
COUNTIES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS THESE OSCILLATIONS WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON THE INLAND
POSITIONING OF THE BAND. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BAND SOUTHWARD DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING. THE INCREASING SHEAR MAY ALSO DISRUPT THE BAND ENOUGH
TO LESSEN THE INTENSITY A BIT.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4335 7571 4335 7571
4384 7564 4336 7572 4341 7762 4379 7756
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