FXUS64 KBRO 020745 CCA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
245 AM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE 
SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THE 
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST REMAINING LIGHT TO 
MODERATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY BUT WILL DECREASE 
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 
SUNDAY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER DEEP SOUTH 
TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE SWELLS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE 
UPCOMING WEEK AS MODERATE TO STRONG NE SURFACE FLOW WILL BUILD IN 
OVER THE LOWER TX COASTLINE IN THE WAKE OF THE APPROACHING COLD 
FRONT. AT 2 AM...THE BUOY020 WAS ALREADY REPORTING A SE WIND NEAR 16 
KTS WITH SWELLS AROUND 4 FT.  WWIII GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE 
INCREASED SWELL ACTIVITY WILL BE DUE TO MAINLY A COMBINATION OF THE 
POST FRONTAL SURFACE WIND FLOW PATTERN AND THE INCREASED PGF 
ANTICIPATED BY THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE/INVERTED 
5H TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CARIB.  THIS FEATURE IN THE CARIB IS 
PROGGED TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SW GULF 
OF MEX BY MIDWEEK. NHC MAINTAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF 
THIS FEATURE...BUT THE CLOSENESS TO THE LAND MASSES OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL LIKELY LIMIT ITS GROWTH SOMEWHAT. 
WILL MAINTAIN A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN THE SWELLS LATER THIS WEEK 
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA POTENTIAL.    
&&

.AVIATION...CONV IS NOW FIRING OVER CENTRAL TX ALONG AND AHEAD OF 
THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS 
MORNING.  UNTIL THIS FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE BRO CWA...EXPECT 
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS THE LATEST IR SATL IMAGERY 
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER AROUND THE REGION THIS 
MORNING.  CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER LATER TODAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
APPROACHES LOWER RGV AIRPORTS.  WILL NEED TO UPDATE THE CURRENT TAF 
PACKAGE TO REFLECT THIS TREND AND TO ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION OF CONV 
AFTER 18Z TODAY.  NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST 
PACKAGE.    
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  73  84  74  85 /  30  30  20  00  00 
BROWNSVILLE          91  71  85  71  86 /  30  30  20  00  00 
HARLINGEN            91  70  86  70  86 /  30  30  20  00  00 
MCALLEN              91  70  86  70  86 /  30  30  20  00  00 
RIO GRANDE CITY      91  70  87  70  87 /  30  30  20  00  00 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  75  84  76  84 /  30  30  20  00  00 
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...63
MARINE/AVIATION/MESO...60