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IN a
way, Lawrence Livermore was founded as a result of the nations
not knowingor at least, underestimatingthe enemy.
In August 1949, U.S. reconnaissance planes detected radioactive
debris near Japan, proof that the Soviets had detonated an atomic
bomb. In Memoirs, physicist Edward Teller writes, Until the
fall of 1949, our intelligence community, most of the leading scientists,
and general public opinion held that the Soviet Union could not
develop an atomic bomb before the 1960s. Within days, Ernest
O. Lawrence, Nobel laureate and head of the University of Californias
Radiation Laboratory, met with federal officials to press for a
strong hydrogen bomb effort to hold the Soviets in check. Teller,
a leading theorist on the hydrogen bomb, also pushed for a vigorous
U.S. hydrogen bomb project. The surprise of the Soviet atomic test
and the looming threat of a Soviet hydrogen bomb spurred the creation
of a branch of Lawrences Berkeley Radiation Laboratory in
Livermore as a second U.S. weapons laboratory.
As the
1950s progressed, Sputniks launch in 1957 and the perceived
missile gap strengthened the drive for improved U.S.
strategic forces and better understanding of Soviet capabilities.
Over time, this need has expanded to include understanding the nuclear
weapon capabilities, intentions, and motivations of other countries
or groups hostile to the U.S. Intelligence analysis efforts at the
Laboratory grew in response. With the end of the Cold War in 1992,
Livermore Director John Nuckolls merged these efforts into the Nonproliferation,
Arms Control, and International Security (NAI) Directorate. This
new organization focused on the threat posed by the proliferation
of nuclear, chemical, and biological weaponscollectively called
the weapons of mass destruction, or WMD.
Today, NAI researchers address
the full spectrum of WMD proliferation issuesprevention, detection
and reversal, response, and avoiding surprise.
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The 1964 Salmon Event, a 5-kiloton
detonation conducted 280 meters deep in a Mississippi salt dome,
confirmed the theory of decoupling as a means of concealing
clandestine nuclear explosions. In this photo, experimenters
are lowering a canister containing the nuclear explosive for
the Salmon Event. |
Avoiding Surprise
After the Soviet Unions
initial atomic bomb test, monitoring the Soviet weapons program
became a paramount concern of U.S. intelligence agencies. In 1965,
a formal relationship with the intelligence community was drawn
up in a memorandum of understanding between the Central Intelligence
Agency (CIA) and the Atomic Energy Commission (predecessor to the
present-day Department of Energy). Livermores Special Projects
Group, known as Z Division, was established to provide the intelligence
community with technical assessments of foreign nuclear programs
and weapons capabilities. According to Dale Nielsen, the first Z
Division leader, the divisions initial charter was twofold.
We looked at the weapons fired by Russia, and later by China,
to see what they were shooting, and we developed intelligence-related
equipment as requested.
Z Division scientists gathered
radiological samples from Soviet and Chinese nuclear tests, using
technologies developed for collecting and analyzing atmospheric
samples from U.S. tests. (See S&TR, June
2002, Chemistry:
50 Years of Exploring the Material World.) They also developed
new technologies for monitoring tests and collecting data that allowed
analysts to tell what kind of weaponsatomic or thermonuclearwere
being tested. Among the many intelligence-related systems, Nielsen
recalls a clever bug sniffer designed by physicists
and electronic engineers for detecting minute electronic monitoring
devices. The CIA wanted to test the system and told us, Weve
set up four bugs in a Virginia safe house. See if you can find them.
We gathered up the equipment, flew out there, and found five out
of four. They never told us if that fifth was an actual part of
the test.
As time went on, Z Division
evolved to respond to the growing list of countries that concerned
the nations intelligence agencies. The division teamed regional
and country-specific experts with weapons scientists and engineers
to make analyses based on technical knowledge about nuclear weapons
development and testing, specifics about each countrys nuclear
capabilities, and evaluation of nontechnical issues that motivate
nuclear programs. Z Division also provided technical knowledge and
intelligence information needed to control U.S. exports that could
support WMD proliferation.
With the formation of the
NAI Directorate, Z Division became the International Assessments
Program and broadened its focus to include chemical and biological
weapons proliferation. In addition, with the globalization of commerce
and technology, Livermores intelligence analysts recognized
the need to assess the WMD capabilities of nonstate groups such
as terrorists and patterns of cooperation among countries and groups
of concern.
Researchers in the International
Assessments Program are also addressing the national security implications
of the U.S.s rapidly growing reliance on critical networked
infrastructures. The countryindeed the entire worldis
becoming more dependent on computing, communication networks, and
information technology. These researchers have developed
a suite of sophisticated network analysis tools to assist government
agencies in detecting, responding to, and preventing computer network
attacks. Through this work, Livermore has become a national leader
in information assurance technology.
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Livermore provided key support
in upgrades made on four nuclear refueling ships for the Russian
icebreaker fleet and the Russian Navy. The upgrades improve
the protection of fresh, highly enriched reactor fuel for the
nuclear-powered vessels. Work such as this involves direct interactions
with the Russian Ministry of Defense, an activity that would
have been inconceivable during the Cold War. |
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The Super Kukla reactor, operated
at the Nevada Test Site between 1965 and 1978, simulated the
hostile environment of a nuclear exchange. Nuclear weapon components
and materials were placed inside an experiment cavity, and instruments
measured how well the tested samples stood up to the hostile
radiation environment. |
Preventing Proliferation
The most effective way to prevent the spread of
nuclear weapons is at the source, through treaties limiting or banning
such weapons and, in the case of nuclear weapons, by securing weapons-usable
nuclear materials. Material control is less effective in preventing
the proliferation of chemical or biological weapons because the
starting materials for these weapons have many legitimate uses.
The Laboratory first became
involved in arms control in the 1950s. Public concern over atmospheric
testing led the U.S. and the Soviet Union to establish a Conference
of Experts to examine the technical issues associated with a comprehensive
ban on nuclear weapons testing in all environmentsthe atmosphere,
outer space, under water, and under ground. Ernest O. Lawrence served
as one of three U.S. representatives to this conference. Harold
Brown, who became Livermores director in 1960, was a member
of the delegations technical advisory group that developed
a concept for verifying compliance with a comprehensive ban on nuclear
weapons testing.
A number of Laboratory scientists
participated in the technical working groups complementing the negotiations
on a comprehensive test ban, examining ways to detectand hideexplosions.
Measuring seismic signals was seen as one technique for detecting
underground explosions, and a worldwide network of seismic stations
was built as part of this effort. (See box below.) However, Laboratory
scientists were concerned that a large cavity would reduce, or muffle,
the shock wave by a factor of 30 to 50, essentially decoupling the
strength of the seismic signal from the size of the explosion. The
possibilities for such decoupling became a key issue in the U.S.
negotiating position during early comprehensive test ban discussions.
The Soviets resumption of nuclear testing in September 1961
broke the bilateral moratorium and ended the negotiations at that
time.
In the ensuing decades, Laboratory
personnel continued to contribute to various arms control negotiations
on both strategic force levels and nuclear testing. For instance,
Livermore scientists participated in the technical working groups
supporting Limited Test Ban Treaty negotiations and in the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty. In the fall of 1977, negotiations on a
comprehensive test ban resumed after a hiatus of many years. In
the 1980s, issues regarding the verification of the Threshold Test
Ban Treaty were resolved with the Joint Verification Experiment
(JVE), a pair of nuclear tests jointly carried out at the U.S. and
Soviet test sites. (See S&TR, June
1998, At the Crossroads
of Technology and Policy.)
Geophysicist Eileen Vergino
provided technical support to the U.S. delegates in Geneva during
the treatys protracted negotiations. Vergino remembers, JVE
was a turning point in Soviet relations with the West. Many AmericanRussian
friendships were forged, and the more open atmosphere anticipated
the postCold War era. In 1992, U.S. nuclear testing
ceased, and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty was signed, although
it has not been ratified by the U.S. Senate.
After the Soviet Union collapsed,
the Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia national laboratories
established Lab-to-Lab interactions with the former Soviet nuclear
institutes in former closed cities. The activities gave rise to
a suite of cooperative programs with former Soviet laboratories
to prevent the spread of weapons expertise or materials to other
nations. (See S&TR, September
2000, Preventing
Nuclear Proliferation: The Post-Cold War Challenge.) Through
the Materials Protection, Control, and Accounting program, Livermore
is working with several Russian sites to improve their protection
of fissile materials and with the Russian Navy to strengthen the
protection of fresh and spent fuel for its nuclear-powered vessels.
The Laboratory is also working with the Russian Customs Service
to curtail the smuggling of nuclear proliferation items by equipping
high-risk border crossings with radiation detection equipment and
training front-line customs officials in using the equipment.
In 2001, lengthy negotiations
by Livermore scientists culminated in a formal agreement between
a Russian weapons assembly facility and a medical equipment manufacturer
to establish a commercial manufacturing facility at Sarov. This
agreement was part of the Nuclear Cities Initiative, which seeks
to create self-sustaining commercial enterprises for the closed
cities, thereby helping to accelerate the downsizing of the Russian
weapons complex and preventing displaced weapons workers from seeking
employment with potential proliferators.
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(a) In the mid-1970s, the
Janus code developed at the Conflict Simulation Laboratory ran
an early, very simple conflict simulation. (b) Today, the Livermore-developed
Joint Conflict and Technical Simulation (JCATS) models are used
by the U.S. military commands and services and various U.S.
security forces for training, tactical analysis, and mission
planning for battlefield and urban conflict situations. |
Detecting and Reversing Proliferation
To reverse proliferation
of WMD requires detecting and identifying proliferation-related
activities. If such activities are detected, the next step is to
evaluate options for reversing the proliferation. Livermore provides
expertise in this area by developing technologies to monitor and
evaluate weapons proliferation activities and to protect critical
U.S. facilities and troops from attack.
Predating this effort was
work by Livermore weapons scientists who examined the consequences
of various us- versus-them scenarios. By the mid-1960s,
with the large buildup of Soviet nuclear weapons and delivery systems,
the U.S. faced some serious what-if questions. If a
nuclear exchange occurred between the U.S. and the Soviet Union,
U.S. warheads would have to contend with defensive countermeasures
such as a nuclear-tipped interceptor or antiballistic missile, which
could deliver a blast aimed at destroying or disabling a U.S. warhead
before it reentered the atmosphere. Would such a countermeasure
work? Nobody knew for certain. The Super Kukla reactor at the Nevada
Test Site was designed to find out. Super Kukla, an ultrahigh prompt
burst reactor, produced an intense pulse of neutrons and gamma radiation
to simulate the environment a U.S. ballistic missile warhead might
encounter during enemy countermeasuresin essence, a nuclear
blast without the blast.
This
focus on nuclear effects was one mission of D Division, which was
also tasked with anticipating the strategic and tactical needs of
the U.S. military services. In an effort to meet these needs, the
Laboratory developed an early presence in the arena of computer-driven
conflict simulation. Since the mid-1970s, Livermore computer scientists
have led in the development of increasingly realistic software to
simulate the tactical battlefield. At first, you had to program
the orders of the opposing force into the computer ahead of time,
which didnt make for a very realistic scenario, recalls
Paul Chrzanowski, who joined D Division in 1977 and became its leader
in 1982. Then George Smith, a very creative guy, developed
a simulation in which two opposing players observe the battle on
separate computer monitors and give orders.
The
Laboratorys landmark Janus program, developed in the late
1970s, was the first conflict simulation tool that was real-time
player-interactive and used a graphical user interface. Livermore
simulations were employed in Operation Desert Storm in the Middle
East as well as in combat planning for Somalia, Bosnia, and other
international trouble spots. In 1997, a team of NAI computer scientists
unveiled Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS), the culmination
of more than two decades of computer-driven mission analysis and
rehearsal experience. (See S&TR, November
1996, Simulations
to Save Time, money, and Lives; June
1999, Forewarnings
of Coming Hazards; January/February
2000, Simulating
Warfare Is No Video Game.)
A more recent computer-driven
innovation developed for the U.S. military is the Counterproliferation
Analysis and Planning System (CAPS), which is widely used by military
planners to evaluate the WMD production capabilities of a country
of concern and assess interdiction options. Drawing on information
from multiple sources, CAPS can model the various processeschemical,
biological, and metallurgicalthat are used to build WMD and
delivery systems. CAPS identifies critical processing steps or production
facilities which, if denied, would prevent that country from acquiring
such weapons.
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Livermores nuclear emergency
response capabilities were tested in Operation Morning Light
in 1978. |
Detecting
Clandestine Nuclear Tests and Verifying Treaties: Two
Sides of the Same Coin
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Lawrence Livermore scientists have long played an important
role in providing monitoring technology that supports
test ban treaty verification and site inspection. On
September 19, 1957, the Laboratory detonated the first
contained underground nuclear explosion, Rainier, in
a tunnel at the Nevada Test Site. The Rainier Event
was announced in advance so that seismic stations throughout
the U.S. and Canada could attempt to record a signal.
Information from this event ultimately led to an array
of seismic detectors for monitoring nuclear test activities
worldwide, as part of the Limited Test Ban Treaty.
Nearly 35 years
later, when the world received news of the Indian and
Pakistani clandestine underground nuclear tests, Livermore
researchers used the tests to validate modern seismic
methods they had developed to monitor the Comprehensive
Test Ban Treaty. (See S&TR, September
1998, Forensic
Seismology Supports the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.)
Using data recorded worldwide by a host of seismic monitoring
stations, the team successfully differentiated the nuclear
blasts from typical regional earthquakes, characterized
the yields of the tests, and noted inconsistencies between
the
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announced
test yields and the seismic data. The seismic signals
from the nuclear tests provided important new data for
calibrating seismic stations in important regions of
the world.
Livermore researchers
have also developed on-site inspection procedures and
technologies for collecting samples of soil, gases,
and water to look for radioactive materials and for
identifying underground explosion cavities or rubble.
In the early 1990s, a team led by geophysicist Charles
Carrigan theorized that highly sensitive instruments
might be able to detect small amounts of rare, radioactive
gases generated in underground nuclear detonations.
In 1993, a chemical explosion called the Non-Proliferation
Experiment was conducted at the Nevada Test Site to
simulate a 1-kiloton underground nuclear detonation.
Results from the experiment and computer simulations
imply that sampling soil gases for rare, explosion-produced
radioactive tracer gases at the surface near a suspected
underground test could help detect nearby underground
nuclear explosions that do not fracture the surface,
even several months after the test. (See S&TR,
January/February 1997, A
Powerful New Tool to Detect Clandestine Nuclear Tests.)
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Responding
to Threats
Whendespite everythingbad
things happen, the Laboratory has the personnel and the science
and technology to help the nation respond.
Since the early 1970s, Livermore
has coordinated its responses to off-site nuclear emergencies through
NESTthe Nuclear Emergency Search Team. When the Soviet satellite
Cosmos 954 fell to Earth in northern Canada in 1978, Laboratory
researchers tracked the reentry path, provided estimates of reentry
location, and participated in a multinational effort to locate and
retrieve radioactive debris. Members of NESThealth physicists,
chemists, nuclear physicists, and engineershauled radiation
detectors, liquid nitrogen, sample containers, power generators,
portable computers, and even a helicopter to a desolate area populated
only by caribou and Inuit hunters. The international team successfully
found hundreds of very small pieces Cosmos left that survived reentry,
and Livermore researchers identified the reactor fuel and estimated
the fission-product inventory.
In addition to NEST, Laboratory
employees also participate in the Radiological Assistance Program,
which helps deal with civilian incidents involving radioactive materials;
in the Accident Response Group, which responds to accidents involving
a U.S. nuclear weapon; and in the Joint Technical Operations Team,
a nuclear response team that assists the Department of Defense in
dealing with terrorist nuclear devices.
Livermores NAI directorate
is home to a number of technologies and capabilities that address
the response end of the threat spectrum. In the Forensic Science
Center, for example, experts in organic and inorganic chemistry
and biochemistry determine the composition and often the source
of minute samples of materials. (See S&TR, April
2002, Forensic
Science Maximizes the Tiniest Clue.) A major effort since the
centers founding in 1991 is the development or adaptation
of forensic analysis technologies for field use. In 1994, the Department
of Energy asked the center to help investigate two gaseous-diffusion
uranium enrichment plants that would be subject to international
inspections. (See S&TR, August
1995, Forensic
Science Center Update.) DOE wanted to know whether an inspector
could walk through a plant, surreptitiously collect samples of material,
and later replicate the enrichment process. In 1998, the center
used its portable thin-layer chromatography system, which can simultaneously
analyze 100 samples, in the field for the first time to examine
more than a thousand World War II munitions that had been unexpectedly
unearthed. (See S&TR, December
1998, Forensic
Science Sleuthing.)
For almost a decade now,
Laboratory researchers, working on the when rather than
if premise, have been developing systems to rapidly
detect and identify biological warfare agents including anthrax
and plague. In 1999, Livermore scientists and engineers unveiled
the Handheld Advanced Nucleic Acid Analyzer (HANAA), the first truly
portable battery-powered device for identifying bioagents in the
field. HANAA can analyze samples in less than 30 minutes, compared
to the hours or days that regular laboratory tests typically require.
(See S&TR, January/February
2002, Rapid
Field Detection fo Biological Agents.) Another device, the Autonomous
Pathogen Detection System (APDS), is being designed to continuously
monitor the air for pathogens as a sort of biological smoke alarm
for airports, stadiums, or conference halls.
Ron Koopman, an associate
program leader with the Chemical and Biological National Security
Program, notes that the availability of HANAA and APDS owe much
to forward-thinking efforts begun in the previous decade. A
number of people recognized the vulnerability of the country to
bioterrorism a long time ago, he says. Back then, although
bioterrorism seemed far away and was something we hoped would never
happen, the Laboratory and members of the defense community decided
to invest in the research. Thanks to that investment, we now have
something to put in the hands of people to protect us all, something
that can help during the current crisis and in the long run.
Laboratory scientists also
worked with their counterparts at Los Alamos to develop the Biological
Aerosol Sentry and Information System. This system, which reduces
the time for detecting a bioagent release from days or weeks to
less than a day, was deployed as part of the security strategy for
the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City.
Biodetectors require unique
DNA sequences or antibodies to identify and characterize pathogens.
Researchers at Livermore and elsewhere are developing a comprehensive
array of such signatures. One effort focuses on analyzing the genome
of the various strains of the bacterium that causes plague. Laboratory
researchers are searching for the DNA sequences that are unique
to all strains of the pathogen but are not found in any of its close
relatives. (See S&TR, March
2002, Tracking
Down Virulence in Plague.)
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In a project for the U.S.
Army in 1998, Livermores Jeff Haas examined more than
1,200 mortars in two days using the Forensic Science Centers
thin-layer chromatography screening system.
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Facing
the Threat, Knowing the Enemy
Over
the years, researchers at the Laboratory have had the foresight
to analyze and prepare for many versions of the catastrophic
maybe, says NAI Associate Director Wayne Shotts. For
most of the Laboratorys existence, the consuming national
security threat to the U.S. was the nuclear arsenal of the Soviet
Union. The energies, talent, and resources of the national security
laboratories were dedicated to checkmating the Soviet threat. That
world, notes Shotts, no longer exists. Today,
the most serious threat arises from the proliferation of nuclear,
chemical, and biological weapons, and the very real threat of terrorism
using those weapons. In a development that defines the national
focus on this growing threat, NAI has broken ground for a new buildingthe
International Security Research Facility. According to Bruce Tarter,
who recently stepped down as Lawrence Livermores director,
this building will serve as the Laboratorys command
post for connectivity to Washington and its efforts to fight
WMD proliferation and terrorism.
Through NAI, the Laboratory
applies its nuclear weapons expertise, developed through its historical
weapons program and continuing stockpile responsibilities, to the
challenge of nuclear nonproliferation. In addition, NAI draws on
the Laboratorys chemical and biological expertise to help
stop the spread of chemical and biological weapons. From one end
of the threat spectrum to the otherprevention, detection and
reversal, response, and avoiding surpriseLivermore stands
ready to help the nation face the threat and know the adversary.
—Ann Parker
Key Words: biodetection,
biological and chemical weapons, conflict simulation, Comprehensive
Test Ban Treaty, forensic analysis, nonproliferation, seismic monitoring,
treaty verification, weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
For further information about the Nonproliferation, Arms Control,
and International Security Directorate, see:
www.llnl.gov/nai/nai.shtml
For further information about the Laboratorys 50th anniversary
celebrations, see:
www.llnl.gov/50th_anniv/
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