FXUS64 KEPZ 180913 AFDELP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO-SANTA TERESA NM 207 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2003 SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF...WELL TO OUR NORTH...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GIVE US A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. BY MIDWEEK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AGAIN...DRYING US OUT AND GIVING US ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL DROP OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS...AND ONCE AGAIN ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. DISCUSSION... INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO OUR NORTH A TROF IS DROPPING INTO COLORADO AND MAY EXTEND ITS INFLUENCE INTO NEW MEXICO...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE MIDWEST WILL TRY TO NOSE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST. EVENTUALLY THE HIGH WILL WIN OUT...BUT NOT BEFORE WE GET THROUGH TODAY. I'VE CONTINUED OUR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW THE UPPER HIGH WILL HAVE OOZED BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH EFFECTUALLY PUT AN END TO OUR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE LOWLANDS. AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK THE MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING THAT THE HIGH WILL DRIFT A LITTLE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL HELP US BY ALLOWING A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO SET UP AND HELP BRING IN SOME EXTRA MOISTURE FROM EAST TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVED TO OUR NORTH THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THEM DOWN INTO THE LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES TO START OFF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH WE WILL SEE OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS SETTLE BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... EL PASO UU 093/072 096/073 097 01000 ALAMOGORDO UU 092/069 094/071 096 01000 LAS CRUCES UU 090/069 095/070 095 01000 CLOUDCROFT UU 071/048 075/049 076 21222 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES UU 088/067 090/069 092 11000 SILVER CITY UU 085/059 087/060 089 21212 DEMING UU 090/069 092/071 094 01000 LORDSBURG UU 088/069 090/071 092 01000 SIERRA BLANCA UU 090/068 094/070 094 01000 .ELP...NONE 15 BRICE