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FXUS04 KWBC 140857
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
357 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2009
PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 14/1200 UTC THRU FEB 17/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
...WEST COAST...
UPR LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SW OREGON COAST WILL WEAKEN AND PULL
SLIGHTLY NWWD IN RESPONSE TO NEXT UPSTREAM UPR TROF THAT WILL DIG
SWD..CLOSING OFF OFFSHORE OF THE NRN COAST OF CA BY SUN MORNING.
GENLY LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY 1 PD WITH LINGERING MSTR AND UPR DYNAMICS..THOUGH AS THE UPR
LOW APCHS SAT NIGHT..INCREASING 85H SLY TO SWLY FLOW OF UP TO 50
KTS ALONG APCHG FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD HEAVIER RAINS
INTO THE NW PORTION OF CA. THE GFS MAY BE A TAD FAST IN DVLPG
PCPN INTO NW CA..THOUGH BY THE END OF THE PD..THE UKMET..CANADIAN
GEM..AND GFS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT BRINGING .50 TO 1 INCH PLUS
AMOUNTS INTO THE REGION..WHICH WAS GENLY FOLLOWED. THIS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF
00Z ECMWF MAINTAINS SLOWER TIMING.
...CNTL/ERN GULF COAST...
STG E/W SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK EXPECTED TO PUSHED EWD FROM NRN MEX
INTO THE GULF COAST REGION..WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS THE REGION AS IT PROVIDES PD OF LARGE SCALE
ACCENT NEAR FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACRS THE REGION. THE FRONT
ITSELF SHOULD BE FORCED SLIGHTLY SWD TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD
ACRS THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY BUT EXPECT SOME WEAK WAVE DVLPMENT SAT
NIGHT ACRS THE CTNL GULF IN RESPONSE TO APCHG JET STREAK WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW WARM FRONTAL PCPN TO WORK NWD AGAIN ACRS THE CNTL
GULF COAST. MODELS SHOW SOME SPREAD HERE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
WAVE..WITH THE GFS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER WITH ITS FASTER/WETTER
SOLN. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN GENL..THUS HAVE TAKEN A BLENDED
APCH OF THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE 00Z CAN/UKMET/NAM SOLNS HERE.
...GRT BASIN/ROCKIES...
S/WV ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF SRN CA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THRU THE 4
CORNERS REGION BEFORE EMERGING ACRS THE CNTL PLAINS AND WEAKENING
SAT NIGHT. WEAK MID/UPR LEVEL FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE S/WV
WILL FAVOR SOME LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT SNOWS THRU PARTS OF THE
REGION..ESPECIALLY THE NRN WASATCH EWD INTO THE WRN CO MTNS. NO
REAL ISSUES WITH NAM/GFS AMOUNTS HERE CONSIDERING MSTR/AVAILABLE
DYNAMICS.
...GT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
LIGHT SNOWS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACRS THE REGION EARLY DAY 1
IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING S/WV TROF MOVING THRU THE REGION.
AMOUNTS IN GELY SHOULD BE .10 INCH OR LESS.
...DAYS 2 AND 3...
...GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...
FAST ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE SRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY WILL HALT THE
PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL ZONE... WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY STALL IN
THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AT THE END OF SAT/EARLY SUN. SHORT WAVE
DYNAMICS STARTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VLY WILL
SLIDE INTO THE TN VLY/SOUTHEAST AND INDUCE A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE DUE
EAST INTO NRN FL AND PROCEED OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST BY SAT
MORNING. BEFORE THIS OCCURS... THIS LOW AND UPPER DYNAMICS
INCLUDING ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT FROM A DYNAMIC UPPER JET STREAK
WILL CAPITALIZE ON A POOL OF DEEP LL MOISTURE W/ PWS AOA 1.25
INCHES. EXPECT A STREAK OF HEAVY RAIN/CONVECTION TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE FL PANHANDLE INTO NRN FL/EXTREME SERN GA WITH AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM A .50 INCH UP TO 2 INCHES. HPC FOLLOWED THE VERY AGREEABLE
00Z GFS W/ ECMWF ON ALL FACETS OF THIS SYSTEM.
...WEST...
YET ANOTHER FEW UNSETTLED DAYS ACROSS THE WEST ESPECIALLY IN CA...
AS A LARGE UPPER VORTEX OVER THE ERN PAC SHIFTS INTO NRN CA AND
PLENTY OF PAC DYNAMICS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CA AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS BETTER ALIGNED TONIGHT...
NOT ONLY ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES BUT THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE
DETAILS ON SUN AND MON. AS A RESULT... HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF W/ THE GFS. THE ACTION ON SUN WILL CONSUME MUCH
OF CA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE COAST... TRANSPORTING
IN .75 TO 1 INCH PWS IN THE PREDOMINANT SWRLY FLOW AND THE NOSE OF
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET SHIFTS DOWN THE COASTLINE FROM NRN CA INTO
CENTRAL CA. THE RESULTANT OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN NRN CA AND CENTRAL CA COAST/COASTAL TERRAIN W/ HEAVY
SNOWFALL IN THE CA SIERRA. IN FACT THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN
IDEAL SET-UP FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST...
WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. BY MON... THE POWERFUL SHORT WAVE
IMPACTING CA WILL SHIFT DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NRN FOUR CORNERS
REGION BUT ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER ALL ACROSS CA. EXPECT
THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS ON MON TO OCCUR DIRECTLY ALONG THE CA
COAST... THE SIERRA... SRN CA MTNS AND INTO AZ.
SULLIVAN/MUSHER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 15/12Z
0.01 499658 496651 494646 488641 486643 480649 472652 464644
459639 455638 447642 445647 444652 443657 445665 451674
460680 462685 462690 461695 458699 453706 451708 444713
444718 447724 450726 452725 455722 458718 461716 466715
471711 476707 485702 487699 487691 491680 497670 499658
0.01 532165 532156 529149 526141 523135 516123 512118 508115
505114 502114 498115 493120 488116 481114 476116 474119
474124 478128 478137 483142 488146 494149 500153 512151
515156 520160 525164 528166 531167 532165
0.01 513889 511880 507876 504869 502863 497858 491856 481854
469851 465849 461844 454830 452828 449827 442825 439821
436816 433808 431801 425780 421772 418768 401752 397752
396758 396765 395770 394774 389784 384792 380798 374802
366805 363806 361810 353817 350822 347828 345834 342837
336835 337827 341816 344807 345799 346794 346779 346767
345762 343759 337759 326759 322759 317761 310771 305778
299788 290792 286802 283812 280823 278836 279848 281858
280863 281867 280872 278878 276882 273892 270904 267928
267935 268943 269949 272953 273960 272966 271971 272977
290969 294969 298967 303964 311957 321950 326944 335935
343927 349917 350910 349905 347900 343894 336884 332880
331875 335867 342855 347856 352858 357860 364858 377853
389847 393848 397852 400855 401858 405861 408864 414864
419864 425865 432878 436882 442883 445881 449880 454880
460883 465888 467890 471891 476890 486890 496894 500895
506891 513889
0.01 474159 473151 469143 465137 461134 454130 452126 453123
455120 459113 461108 463105 466105 470106 474104 473097
470091 464089 449091 430089 426090 424093 424099 422103
419105 416104 412097 412094 414090 418083 420075 424071
429071 431073 436076 445078 452081 461082 465082 468081
471077 471072 467056 467040 467036 464030 461024 450014
439004 433002 429003 428009 429021 429026 426026 421027
415027 409030 405036 402044 401049 400051 395053 390057
382061 377061 371057 364058 358061 356066 356072 358075
360080 358090 360095 363096 373097 377102 381104 385104
387109 383114 378119 371120 369122 369125 370127 373129
376130 383127 387127 399128 405132 412128 414127 417129
418133 418140 417146 415149 409148 406150 405153 404162
407169 407175 406188 413200 417206 418209 416208 409206
401201 395199 390195 384193 380190 374187 368186 364188
370193 373192 372198 375203 380208 385212 388214 388217
380215 372212 366207 362204 357203 351207 336227 334233
332238 332242 331251 334259 338265 344269 348270 355269
367265 374264 378265 383267 387271 394271 402271 408274
417279 426283 435286 441283 448268 451256 452251 452245
451239 450235 446232 450230 454228 460224 461215 458211
453212 449213 442212 437211 434209 428203 426201 426195
432188 438188 442186 442182 436177 430173 430163 436165
442170 449171 452168 453162 456156 459153 462153 465155
467157 473160 474159
0.01 448142 451138 448135 446133 445133 443137 445139 447142
448142 448142
0.01 440129 441125 440121 440120 439120 437123 437124 437127
440129 440129
0.01 411814 406814 401815 397816 391817 386821 384824 382827
383831 388830 394829 397828 399826 405823 407820 411814
0.01 335960 332957 328958 325959 320962 318963 315967 313970
311975 311979 317977 319975 324972 327970 330968 334964
335960
0.25 441252 443248 443244 443240 441238 435237 429232 426232
422233 418233 417232 416228 417220 414215 410212 398207
394206 392206 393210 398220 398223 391222 380223 375224
371226 363232 356239 355242 355246 358249 363253 370254
383258 395261 406261 415262 427263 435255 441252
0.25 412072 412068 410065 407063 403064 398067 395065 392066
387068 387076 389079 393083 398085 401082 404079 408076
412072
0.25 406114 407110 406108 404110 403112 402113 403115 406114
406114
0.25 320799 317794 314792 310792 304797 300803 295817 291830
290836 289845 288862 285892 285899 283907 282915 281922
280931 280939 281950 283953 286954 294953 302950 307945
311938 313932 318926 321919 321914 321909 315870 319857
321848 322840 323825 322816 321806 320799
0.50 429244 427242 424242 423242 424244 427244 429244
0.50 417248 419244 417241 413237 412234 413229 414224 414219
409216 402216 404222 402224 399225 392224 382226 376227
372230 369235 369238 371241 379248 385253 392255 399256
405256 414250 417248
0.50 314829 310818 307810 305808 303810 299820 296830 293841
292854 290878 290890 288903 285927 286934 290939 294937
297934 312918 313913 314905 313891 312884 312878 312870
313864 317854 317847 315840 314829
1.00 406248 408245 408241 407237 405233 406229 402231 399231
396230 394229 391229 385230 384234 384238 387242 391246
394248 399250 402250 406248
1.00 410226 410222 410221 409222 407225 408229 410226
1.00 304827 304823 303823 303824 304827 304827
1.00 304837 304833 304830 302829 302831 301834 301835 300838
300841 299842 299845 301847 302844 303843 303840 304837
304837
1.00 309862 308859 304858 301860 299863 298869 297876 296885
296893 297902 301903 304900 307895 307886 307879 308872
309865 309862
1.50 404244 403242 401239 398237 395236 392236 392237 395240
395241 397244 400245 403245 404244
1.50 305873 302873 302874 301878 301880 301881 301883 304881
304880 304877 305874 305873
24HR QP VT 16/12Z
0.01 473685 469679 465676 463679 462685 458690 456695 455701
451708 446716 445721 445726 446729 448730 452729 459723
463716 466706 465697 467693 471691 473685
0.01 515185 516180 514177 510173 508165 508160 510156 508151
503141 499122 498107 497089 498081 500077 500065 501054
500035 496024 495009 491992 490987 491984 494980 495973
495965 493956 490947 487942 483937 480936 477935 473936
466942 465944 465949 465953 467957 469963 469974 470982
467985 461992 457995 455997 455001 457009 459018 456032
459038 462040 465043 468047 470057 474062 476064 480069
482073 482080 482099 478113 476120 473124 469129 469137
468145 470154 469171 470176 472179 475181 480184 483181
486177 489178 492180 494183 497186 501188 506189 511188
515185
0.01 481249 482245 481241 479238 477234 473232 470229 471226
478221 482218 484214 482209 477207 471207 468207 465205
463201 463198 463190 465181 465178 464174 458171 455168
455162 455159 453155 447153 444152 442149 440146 437145
435145 433149 433153 433156 431159 426163 425167 426170
430175 429179 427182 428186 429187 432188 434192 435195
436201 436205 433203 428196 423192 417193 410192 402190
394191 388188 374182 366180 360181 358184 357188 356191
353190 349184 347181 343178 337174 329173 323172 315173
309175 306179 302186 298194 296202 299209 307215 310217
310221 310228 314236 318239 322240 331243 335244 339244
350242 357243 364245 374248 384252 394261 404271 409275
415275 431273 438270 443265 453257 458254 464252 469253
476252 481249
0.01 476884 476880 474876 472872 471864 471860 470855 467854
464856 462860 460866 459873 460881 464887 468892 471892
474889 476884
0.01 447861 445857 440855 437855 433854 427854 422855 416859
415861 417864 421866 424868 430867 433867 439866 442866
445865 447861
0.01 432016 428011 422006 416002 410000 404998 399999 398001
402007 406011 412014 417018 423021 428022 431020 432016
0.01 357747 354746 353742 352734 350732 347731 346731 335741
326749 313758 303765 287782 283788 281793 281799 280805
277811 274813 269817 265822 267848 267856 269863 269867
271870 276872 275896 276910 274920 273927 273937 274944
277951 281950 284947 291939 298928 303918 307907 309902
313898 326891 338886 342882 345877 346872 346865 345860
339854 339851 341848 346845 349841 353836 357825 358817
358807 355792 352779 352772 353765 356755 357750 357747
0.01 351124 351122 350120 349117 348116 347113 346112 344109
343108 340106 340109 339112 340116 341119 342121 345123
348124 351124 351124
0.01 279016 276009 275004 277998 277991 276984 272976 269972
264969 257967 249968 242972 237975 233980 232985 233992
236997 241002 245006 255012 265019 271022 275022 278019
279016
0.25 428256 428252 426247 423240 420232 420225 422218 420212
416207 410203 404200 394197 386195 378192 370193 364196
358199 355199 351197 349197 348193 347189 343186 335184
329186 323188 317192 312196 311198 312201 317204 323210
324214 322217 322222 325226 327230 331233 336236 342237
349236 356236 365237 372240 379243 386246 394251 406259
413263 420265 425261 428256
0.25 336777 334766 332762 330761 321768 309778 303782 300785
295792 293798 289806 286814 285821 284831 283844 284857
285873 286881 289885 292885 297884 304881 314875 318874
321871 323865 321851 322836 324824 325808 327796 329791
333786 336777
0.25 254994 252992 250991 249991 246991 244990 241992 241993
243995 244996 247998 248998 250997 252996 254994
0.50 413254 410240 410235 411229 415220 412214 408210 404205
398202 391200 384198 378199 374202 369204 366203 360202
354202 350200 344191 342188 339187 335188 331192 329199
332207 336211 335214 332219 330221 331224 334229 340232
346233 359232 366233 372235 396248 407253 413254
0.50 320789 317785 313784 304789 298795 294803 291812 289819
288830 288840 288850 290858 290866 292872 294876 297877
300877 303875 306872 312865 314861 315856 316848 318837
319828 319818 318807 317802 318796 320789
1.00 409222 402208 394204 390204 386205 381209 376210 371210
367209 359207 350206 345208 341217 340221 341226 348228
353228 362229 367229 377231 382233 390239 394241 398237
399232 401227 406225 409222
1.00 309804 307799 304797 302799 298804 296810 294821 294833
297846 298855 300862 300866 303864 305853 309842 312830
313824 312817 309804
1.50 401216 401212 400210 397208 394207 391210 393213 396215
399216 401216
1.50 378225 379221 378218 375215 370213 365211 359209 353209
349210 347215 346219 348222 354225 359226 365227 371227
374227 378225
1.50 307825 307819 306812 302807 300808 298812 297816 297823
298826 299832 301838 304837 305833 306829 307825
2.00 374224 374220 372216 370215 367214 364212 362211 359211
356211 354212 353212 350214 350218 351220 354222 357223
359224 361224 362224 365225 368225 371225 374224
2.00 304823 304820 304817 301814 301815 300818 300821 300822
301825 304824 304823
3.00 370219 369219 366217 364215 361214 358214 356216 356219
357220 360222 363222 366222 367222 369220 370219
4.00 364218 364217 361216 360217 360218 363219 364218
24HR QP VT 17/12Z
0.01 479696 475684 466676 458669 450666 447667 444666 440667
438669 434675 435679 438685 445694 452698 460701 469704
477707 479696
0.01 505123 506116 507108 505097 502079 499063 499041 496016
494006 492996 490989 489984 489979 494974 496968 497958
497945 496923 494909 492900 490888 490878 488866 485854
482848 474842 467830 462823 459820 456821 452825 450833
449840 448848 449864 452876 454884 457895 459905 461915
461924 462935 464945 473986 476005 478024 479034 479042
479048 478057 478067 479076 481083 485089 488095 491104
491116 490126 488128 484128 478127 474130 474137 479141
481143 483146 482149 478155 476160 477165 480171 484174
490175 495172 496165 496158 495148 496139 505123
0.01 457223 457219 454216 451215 446215 440213 435210 433206
430199 432189 432182 431179 432176 435173 440166 443165
446164 448162 447154 446150 444137 445130 446128 452121
454113 455106 455102 453098 447097 440096 432090 425085
422089 423096 424099 422100 416103 413102 412099 415095
418091 417087 415084 417072 413064 404061 375061 369058
363059 359061 355065 354068 355072 361079 363082 359085
353081 346083 341087 327098 322104 320106 318112 315118
311123 308130 309131 314134 323135 328137 330139 330142
326144 320148 313152 308156 304161 303163 304167 305168
304175 306181 311186 318191 324197 331209 334217 336225
340233 349238 368244 382250 400258 420267 425267 427265
430262 433256 452238 449235 448231 451226 457223
0.01 401795 401791 398788 395788 392788 389790 387793 386794
385796 384799 383801 383803 385807 388808 391807 394805
396803 398800 400796 401795
0.01 375788 372786 367784 363783 359783 356782 350783 345785
340790 345794 348795 352795 357796 361795 366795 372792
375788
0.01 397921 397916 394914 388913 380915 374920 372924 369931
366936 358942 353948 352954 352963 355968 361966 365962
368950 372946 378944 384940 388935 395926 397921
0.01 288021 289018 289015 286011 285008 286003 285994 282989
272977 267972 261969 253968 244969 239969 234973 231976
231982 233990 237996 242000 251009 262019 268023 276025
279026 284025 288021
0.25 420233 420226 418219 415213 412209 404203 395198 389194
384190 381186 378182 378173 386168 390162 392154 389146
387141 386135 388129 390124 387121 383121 376121 363119
355116 350113 346110 342106 337104 333107 331111 332115
335119 339122 340126 341135 344140 348143 355143 360143
365146 366150 365153 360159 358164 354166 348165 340162
328161 321159 316161 314164 314168 317173 323179 328186
334197 339205 346213 351220 359228 369235 378240 388245
395248 402249 407248 411247 417240 420233
0.25 435112 429108 423110 420112 414113 409111 403111 398113
395117 397121 402122 405121 411121 417120 423119 426118
429116 435112
0.25 399079 398077 398076 395073 392072 389074 388076 387079
386079 385083 386085 389087 391087 392087 395086 397083
398081 399079
0.25 361195 359192 358191 356190 353188 351190 351193 352196
355197 358197 361196 361195
0.50 409229 412223 411218 409214 407212 403208 395203 389198
383193 375184 371177 367175 359175 353176 352179 352182
355185 360190 364195 366198 363203 353200 349194 349178
348173 346170 344166 340164 333163 325163 321164 319167
321171 325175 329180 342204 352215 360224 386241 391243
395243 400242 402241 409229
0.50 394079 392077 389079 389080 392081 394079
0.50 376144 378141 376137 373135 371133 371129 370129 368129
365128 365129 367131 369132 370135 371136 370140 372143
373144 375145 376144
0.50 360135 361132 359128 356125 355124 355121 354120 351119
348118 346120 347123 346127 346130 347134 350137 353138
356137 359136 360135
0.50 344116 343115 342113 340110 339109 337108 336109 335112
337114 339116 340116 343117 344116
1.00 387205 386201 382196 379192 376190 373187 368183 363182
360185 362188 364191 367194 372198 375200 378203 383205
387205
1.00 365218 364216 361214 360217 361218 363219 365218
1.00 346199 344192 345185 345175 344171 342167 336166 330167
327168 327170 331176 334182 337187 341193 346199 346199
1.50 378195 376193 374191 373190 371188 368186 365189 367191
369194 370194 372196 375197 378195
1.50 343185 344182 344178 343175 342171 341170 338170 336173
335177 336180 337183 337184 339187 342187 343185
2.00 343181 342178 342174 341172 340174 338177 338180 339184
339185 340184 343182 343181
$$
