FXUS62 KEYW 171430 AFDEYW FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1030 AM EDT SAT JUL 1A 0U4 .DISCUSSION... .NU.RN LY... A WEAK ATLANTIC PLENSIR RIDGE STRETCHES WESTWARDWASRWSR THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS AT MARINE LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. ISLAND LOCATIONS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 OP1. A LARGE AND UNSEASONABLE SPNEB EEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER THEO E EHSTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORR LASEO ARE ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SURFACE LOW IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. AT THIS TIME...SHOWER ACTIVITY IN KEYS WATERYI APERSE. HOWEVER...NOR ..TOON LR ZONES...A BAND OF SHOW RF SNO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DE EAOEED IN A CONFLUENT ZONE. MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING INDICATES A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW UP THROUGH 6H0OMG. .NO INHIBITING INVBLE NN.B EED A PRECIPITABLE WATER O A.E2 INCHES. .SHORT RANGERU DATG...THIS AFTERNOON... THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH TODAY...ALLOWING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTTN AIDH AIDING IN SHIFTING THETPNE SHRE RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH. WSNUSHW LL BE MAINLY AROUND 10RKUODS1OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE CUMULUS LINE MAY BECOME ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BW WOLT WESTERLY. TONIGHT WIND IWLNLIKELY INCREASE FURTHER TU T0ET 15 OVER THE STRAITS..TAADTA.BIT STRONGER AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND BAY WATERS. A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE STRAITS MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG CLOLDNL NES OVER THE WARM GULF AUDFCRIBBEAN WATERS. ALSO...THLRO .STA THREAT THAT CUBAN CONVEAT VO V OUTFLOWS WILL REACH THE VICINITY OF THE KEYS TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST ANTICIPATED. && .MARINE... A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THEOSE STATES WILL AFFECT THE KCY HY INCREASE SW WINDS TONINHS.T.NUN THROUGH MON. AT LEAST T5LKA TW WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR BAY AND GULF WATERS BY EARLY SUN CONTINUING MON...MIGHT BE 10-15 KT OUT IN THE STRAITS BY CURRENT INDICATIONS. PLEASE CHECK LATER FORECASTS FOR SUN AND MON...AS THIS LOW OVER THE SE STATES MAY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES...AND THAT COULD GIVE THE KEYS A PERIOD OVER 15 KT SUSTAINED WINDS SUN-MON. DURING THIS TIME...UNSTABLE AIR WILL PROBABLY CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NE FROM THE GULF...IN LINES AT TIMES...AND PRODUCING LOCAL GUSTY WINDS. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS...BUT STILL FROM THE SW...IS EXPECTED TUE-WED AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. WILL ONLY REMOVE TRANSITIONAL WORDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL UPDATE. && .AVIATION... NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MAINLAND PORTIONS OF THE KEYW-KMIA TWEEB ROUTE BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 17Z. SOME OF THESE MAINLAND STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH TOPS EXCEEDING 50K FEET AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS. FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND OVERWATER PORTION OF THE ROUTE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TODAY AND THIS EVENING. OVERALL FROM SURFACE THROUGH 10K FEET...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE/DIGITAL......SD AVIATION/NOWCASTS..........AD